diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index 4df0302..80a960c 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -23,24 +23,14 @@ From the top level directory, enter: `npm run start`
## What are "stars" and how are they computed
-Star ratings—e.g. ★★★☆☆—are an indicator of the quality of an aggregate forecast for a question. These ratings currently try to reflect my own best judgment based on my experience forecasting on these platforms. Thus, stars have a strong subjective component which could be formalized and refined in the future.
+Star ratings—e.g. ★★★☆☆—are an indicator of the quality of an aggregate forecast for a question. These ratings currently try to reflect my own best judgment and the best judgment of forecasting experts I've asked, based on our collective experience forecasting on these platforms. Thus, stars have a strong subjective component which could be formalized and refined in the future. You can see the code used to decide how many stars to assign [here](https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecasts/blob/master/src/stars.js)
-Currently, stars are computed using a simple rule dependent on both the platform and the number of forecasts:
-- CSET-foretell: ★★☆☆☆, but ★☆☆☆☆ if a question has less than 100 forecasts
-- Elicit: ★☆☆☆☆
-- Good Judgment (various superforecaster dashboards): ★★★★☆
-- Good Judgment Open: ★★★☆☆, ★★☆☆☆ if a question has less than 100 forecasts
-- Hypermind: ★★★☆☆
-- Metaculus: ★★★★☆ if a question has more than 300 forecasts, ★★★☆☆ if it has more than 100, ★★☆☆☆ otherwise.
-- Omen: ★☆☆☆☆
-- Polymarket: ★★☆☆☆
-- PredictIt: ★★☆☆☆
+With regards the quality, I am most uncertain about Smarkets, Hypermind, Ladbrokes and WilliamHill, as I haven't used them as much. Also note that, whatever other redeeming features they might have, prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%.
## Various notes
- Right now, I'm fetching only a couple of common properties, such as the title, url, platform, whether a question is binary (yes/no), its percentage, and the number of forecasts. However, the code contains more fields commented out, such as trade volume, liquidity, etc.
- A note as to quality: Tentatively, Good Judgment >> Good Judgment Open ~ Metaculus > CSET > PredictIt ~> Polymarket >> Elicit > Omen.
- I'm not really sure where Hypermind falls in that spectrum.
-- Prediction markets rarely go above 95% or below 5%.
- For elicit and metaculus, this library currently filters questions with <10 predictions.
- Omen *does* have very few active predictions at the moment; this is not a mistake.
diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json
index 08d6546..c2e73ec 100644
--- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json
+++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json
@@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.5%",
- "probability": 0.1117,
+ "probability": 0.1292,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
- "probability": 0.2214,
+ "probability": 0.2303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3429,
+ "probability": 0.317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1877,
+ "probability": 0.16620000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 12%",
- "probability": 0.1363,
+ "probability": 0.1573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "56",
- "numforecasters": "45",
+ "numforecasts": "65",
+ "numforecasters": "53",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -106,32 +106,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
- "probability": 0.0405,
+ "probability": 0.039599999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.12300000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
- "probability": 0.2775,
+ "probability": 0.2783,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
- "probability": 0.3145,
+ "probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
- "probability": 0.2445,
+ "probability": 0.2421,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "32",
- "numforecasters": "28",
+ "numforecasts": "42",
+ "numforecasters": "34",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -142,32 +142,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 70,000",
- "probability": 0.1305,
+ "probability": 0.1119,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.30920000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.316,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
- "probability": 0.30260000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.3179,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
- "probability": 0.17559999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.175,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 130,000",
- "probability": 0.0821,
+ "probability": 0.0793,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "65",
- "numforecasters": "56",
+ "numforecasts": "70",
+ "numforecasters": "60",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -178,32 +178,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $400 billion",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.1371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1746,
+ "probability": 0.17859999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
- "probability": 0.4854,
+ "probability": 0.4921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.1877,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.0123,
+ "probability": 0.0121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "21",
- "numforecasters": "19",
+ "numforecasts": "22",
+ "numforecasters": "20",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -250,32 +250,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $470 billion",
- "probability": 0.048799999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.04650000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1074,
+ "probability": 0.10490000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.2274,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.32789999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.31370000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.28600000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.3074,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "64",
- "numforecasters": "61",
+ "numforecasts": "66",
+ "numforecasters": "62",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -295,8 +295,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "114",
- "numforecasters": "101",
+ "numforecasts": "120",
+ "numforecasters": "105",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -352,7 +352,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "46",
+ "numforecasts": "47",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 2
},
@@ -369,17 +369,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1307,
+ "probability": 0.129,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
- "probability": 0.4276,
+ "probability": 0.4286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.32659999999999995,
+ "probability": 0.3272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -388,7 +388,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "46",
+ "numforecasts": "49",
"numforecasters": "41",
"stars": 2
},
@@ -400,12 +400,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than -0.25",
- "probability": 0.1855,
+ "probability": 0.1868,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.31679999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.3164,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -415,7 +415,7 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
- "probability": 0.155,
+ "probability": 0.1542,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -424,7 +424,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "127",
+ "numforecasts": "128",
"numforecasters": "108",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -436,32 +436,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $200 million",
- "probability": 0.052300000000000006,
+ "probability": 0.0506,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.20329999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.2032,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
- "probability": 0.359,
+ "probability": 0.3639,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
- "probability": 0.239,
+ "probability": 0.2382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 million",
- "probability": 0.1464,
+ "probability": 0.14400000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "102",
- "numforecasters": "89",
+ "numforecasts": "107",
+ "numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -477,26 +477,26 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3074,
+ "probability": 0.30329999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
- "probability": 0.33240000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.3326,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
- "probability": 0.18989999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.1923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $150 million",
- "probability": 0.1208,
+ "probability": 0.1223,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "125",
+ "numforecasts": "127",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -508,32 +508,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 26,000",
- "probability": 0.037200000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.039,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.0728,
+ "probability": 0.0834,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
- "probability": 0.1883,
+ "probability": 0.19829999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
- "probability": 0.3583,
+ "probability": 0.3469,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 32,000",
- "probability": 0.34340000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.33240000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "53",
- "numforecasters": "41",
+ "numforecasts": "62",
+ "numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -544,7 +544,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 800",
- "probability": 0.131,
+ "probability": 0.1329,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -554,21 +554,21 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
- "probability": 0.2918,
+ "probability": 0.2904,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
- "probability": 0.09820000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.09720000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 100,000",
- "probability": 0.026600000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.0271,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "130",
+ "numforecasts": "131",
"numforecasters": "99",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -604,7 +604,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "54",
+ "numforecasts": "55",
"numforecasters": "50",
"stars": 2
},
@@ -625,7 +625,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "130",
+ "numforecasts": "134",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -637,22 +637,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Zero",
- "probability": 0.40880000000000005,
+ "probability": 0.4242,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "One",
- "probability": 0.3373,
+ "probability": 0.3281,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Two or more",
- "probability": 0.2539,
+ "probability": 0.24760000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "104",
- "numforecasters": "85",
+ "numforecasts": "108",
+ "numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -687,7 +687,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "64",
+ "numforecasts": "65",
"numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 2
},
@@ -699,17 +699,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "288",
- "numforecasters": "185",
+ "numforecasts": "295",
+ "numforecasters": "187",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -720,27 +720,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.0352,
+ "probability": 0.0348,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1042,
+ "probability": 0.1032,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.2343,
+ "probability": 0.23579999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.6263000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.6262,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "213",
- "numforecasters": "131",
+ "numforecasts": "220",
+ "numforecasters": "132",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -751,32 +751,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 59%",
- "probability": 0.1308,
+ "probability": 0.12789999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1877,
+ "probability": 0.18420000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
- "probability": 0.25920000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.2625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
- "probability": 0.2851,
+ "probability": 0.28800000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80%",
- "probability": 0.13720000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.1374,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "204",
- "numforecasters": "164",
+ "numforecasts": "210",
+ "numforecasters": "166",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -787,32 +787,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 15%",
- "probability": 0.0746,
+ "probability": 0.07919999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1888,
+ "probability": 0.1931,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%",
- "probability": 0.32130000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.3221,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
- "probability": 0.2735,
+ "probability": 0.2644,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 21%",
- "probability": 0.1419,
+ "probability": 0.1413,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "136",
- "numforecasters": "104",
+ "numforecasts": "139",
+ "numforecasters": "105",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -832,7 +832,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "168",
+ "numforecasts": "171",
"numforecasters": "129",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -868,7 +868,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "197",
+ "numforecasts": "199",
"numforecasters": "138",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -880,32 +880,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 675",
- "probability": 0.5722,
+ "probability": 0.6076,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2249,
+ "probability": 0.2086,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
- "probability": 0.1091,
+ "probability": 0.0998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
- "probability": 0.060700000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.0528,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 900",
- "probability": 0.0331,
+ "probability": 0.031200000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "139",
- "numforecasters": "80",
+ "numforecasts": "146",
+ "numforecasters": "82",
"stars": 3
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.json b/data/elicit-questions.json
index 6cfaf26..b70a0e1 100644
--- a/data/elicit-questions.json
+++ b/data/elicit-questions.json
@@ -519,26 +519,6 @@
"numforecasters": 54,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3156060606060606,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6843939393939393,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "numforecasters": 52,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -559,6 +539,26 @@
"numforecasters": 52,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3156060606060606,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6843939393939393,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 66,
+ "numforecasters": 52,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Will the post \"Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong\" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20\"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong\"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -779,26 +779,6 @@
"numforecasters": 30,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47382978723404257,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5261702127659574,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
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- "stars": 1
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{
"title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",
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@@ -819,46 +799,6 @@
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38967741935483874,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6103225806451613,
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- "numforecasts": 31,
- "numforecasters": 29,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
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- "numforecasts": 40,
- "numforecasters": 29,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -879,6 +819,66 @@
"numforecasters": 29,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.47382978723404257,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
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+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasters": 28,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "numforecasters": 29,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.38967741935483874,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6103225806451613,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 31,
+ "numforecasters": 29,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -899,6 +899,26 @@
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.82125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17874999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 32,
+ "numforecasters": 28,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -939,26 +959,6 @@
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82125,
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- "name": "No",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 32,
- "numforecasters": 28,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -979,6 +979,46 @@
"numforecasters": 27,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8075925925925925,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19240740740740747,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "numforecasters": 27,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump wins Nobel",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.10552631578947368,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8944736842105263,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 38,
+ "numforecasters": 26,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -999,6 +1039,26 @@
"numforecasters": 26,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4023809523809524,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5976190476190476,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 42,
+ "numforecasters": 26,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "...be an environmental disaster.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1019,46 +1079,6 @@
"numforecasters": 26,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8062264150943396,
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 53,
- "numforecasters": 26,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump wins Nobel",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10552631578947368,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8944736842105263,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 38,
- "numforecasters": 26,
- "stars": 1
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{
"title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1079,26 +1099,6 @@
"numforecasters": 26,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4023809523809524,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5976190476190476,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "numforecasters": 26,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1160,22 +1160,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07461538461538461,
+ "probability": 0.35119999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9253846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.6488,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasts": 25,
"numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1200,22 +1200,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35119999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.07461538461538461,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6488,
+ "probability": 0.9253846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 25,
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"numforecasters": 23,
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},
@@ -1239,66 +1239,6 @@
"numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "numforecasters": 22,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6888,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31120000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 22,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6226923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37730769230769234,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 22,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1319,26 +1259,6 @@
"numforecasters": 22,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "probability": 0.8411111111111111,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15888888888888886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 27,
- "numforecasters": 22,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1359,6 +1279,106 @@
"numforecasters": 22,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9333333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasters": 22,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6226923076923077,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.37730769230769234,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 22,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8411111111111111,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15888888888888886,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasters": 22,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6888,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.31120000000000003,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 22,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2885185185185185,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7114814814814815,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasters": 21,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1379,86 +1399,6 @@
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7363999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 21,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6084375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39156250000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "numforecasters": 21,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13119999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8688,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 21,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3745833333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6254166666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "numforecasters": 21,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1480,22 +1420,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2885185185185185,
+ "probability": 0.6084375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7114814814814815,
+ "probability": 0.39156250000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasts": 32,
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1519,6 +1459,46 @@
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3745833333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6254166666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasters": 21,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.13119999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8688,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 21,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1540,22 +1520,62 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2782857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.2636,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7217142857142858,
+ "probability": 0.7363999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 35,
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 21,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.11681818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8831818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasters": 20,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15333333333333335,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8466666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1579,26 +1599,6 @@
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34127659574468083,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6587234042553192,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1640,22 +1640,42 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15333333333333335,
+ "probability": 0.34127659574468083,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8466666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.6587234042553192,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasters": 20,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2782857142857143,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7217142857142858,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 35,
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1679,26 +1699,6 @@
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11681818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8831818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1719,26 +1719,6 @@
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8838095238095238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.11619047619047618,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1760,22 +1740,62 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0695,
+ "probability": 0.8838095238095238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9305,
+ "probability": 0.11619047619047618,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 20,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8738461538461538,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.12615384615384617,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8185714285714286,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.18142857142857138,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 28,
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1820,22 +1840,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4704761904761905,
+ "probability": 0.02210526315789474,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5295238095238095,
+ "probability": 0.9778947368421053,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasts": 19,
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -1860,78 +1880,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.484,
+ "probability": 0.4704761904761905,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.516,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8313636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16863636363636358,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8738461538461538,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12615384615384617,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.20523809523809525,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7947619047619048,
+ "probability": 0.5295238095238095,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1939,26 +1899,6 @@
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8185714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18142857142857138,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1980,38 +1920,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02210526315789474,
+ "probability": 0.8313636363636364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9778947368421053,
+ "probability": 0.16863636363636358,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasts": 22,
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7484999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.484,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25150000000000006,
+ "probability": 0.516,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2019,6 +1959,26 @@
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.20523809523809525,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7947619047619048,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2039,6 +1999,66 @@
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7243478260869566,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.2756521739130434,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.0695,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9305,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7484999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25150000000000006,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2060,82 +2080,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7243478260869566,
+ "probability": 0.03318181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2756521739130434,
+ "probability": 0.9668181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.648,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.352,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "numforecasters": 18,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3281481481481482,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6718518518518518,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "numforecasters": 18,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4026923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5973076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasts": 22,
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -2159,6 +2119,26 @@
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3281481481481482,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6718518518518518,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2199,6 +2179,26 @@
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.648,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.352,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2219,6 +2219,26 @@
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4026923076923077,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5973076923076923,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2239,46 +2259,6 @@
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03318181818181818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9668181818181818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 18,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08388888888888889,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9161111111111111,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2300,62 +2280,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.018000000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.26894736842105266,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.982,
+ "probability": 0.7310526315789474,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2161904761904762,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7838095238095237,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6933333333333332,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30666666666666675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasts": 19,
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -2419,6 +2359,26 @@
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.018000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.982,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "aliens invade earth in 2023",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2439,6 +2399,66 @@
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8395238095238095,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.16047619047619055,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2161904761904762,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7838095238095237,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08388888888888889,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9161111111111111,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2460,102 +2480,42 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26894736842105266,
+ "probability": 0.6933333333333332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7310526315789474,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8395238095238095,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16047619047619055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9531578947368421,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.04684210526315791,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 16,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7770588235294117,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2229411764705883,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 16,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3466666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6533333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.30666666666666675,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.049,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.951,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -2579,66 +2539,6 @@
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 16,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42222222222222217,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 16,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.049,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.951,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 16,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2679,6 +2579,66 @@
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9531578947368421,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.04684210526315791,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3466666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6533333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7770588235294117,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.2229411764705883,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2720,82 +2680,82 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.933125,
+ "probability": 0.04125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06687500000000002,
+ "probability": 0.95875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5517647058823529,
+ "probability": 0.5777777777777778,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44823529411764707,
+ "probability": 0.42222222222222217,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 15,
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.5936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.4064,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasts": 25,
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7394117647058823,
+ "probability": 0.5689655172413793,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2605882352941177,
+ "probability": 0.43103448275862066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasts": 29,
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -2839,66 +2799,6 @@
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.23450000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5936,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4064,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5689655172413793,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43103448275862066,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2920,22 +2820,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03705882352941177,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9629411764705882,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasts": 20,
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -2959,6 +2859,126 @@
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5517647058823529,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.44823529411764707,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03705882352941177,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9629411764705882,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.933125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.06687500000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7655,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.23450000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.41470588235294115,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5852941176470589,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7394117647058823,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.2605882352941177,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2979,26 +2999,6 @@
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.118125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.881875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3040,23 +3040,143 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41470588235294115,
+ "probability": 0.118125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5852941176470589,
+ "probability": 0.881875,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09823529411764706,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9017647058823529,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.0955,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9045,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3026315789473684,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6973684210526316,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17394444444444446,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8260555555555555,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08785714285714287,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9121428571428571,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.14,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.86,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
@@ -3099,146 +3219,6 @@
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3026315789473684,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6973684210526316,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17394444444444446,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8260555555555555,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.111875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.888125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05941176470588236,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9405882352941176,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9053333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0955,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9045,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3259,26 +3239,6 @@
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08785714285714287,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9121428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3300,38 +3260,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8220000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.111875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17799999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.888125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasts": 16,
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.11733333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.8826666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3339,26 +3299,6 @@
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09823529411764706,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9017647058823529,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3420,18 +3360,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11733333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.05941176470588236,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8826666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.9405882352941176,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8220000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17799999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3439,6 +3399,186 @@
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.83,
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+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "name": "No",
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+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.320625,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "name": "No",
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+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "name": "No",
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+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "name": "Yes",
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+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "ETI is AGI",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
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+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8461111111111111,
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+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "stars": 1
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{
"title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036",
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@@ -3460,18 +3600,58 @@
"stars": 1
},
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+ "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
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{
"name": "Yes",
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},
{
"name": "No",
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+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.045,
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+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.955,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3479,6 +3659,46 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
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+ "name": "Yes",
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+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
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{
"title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3519,106 +3739,6 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
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},
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- "title": "ETI is AGI",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "numforecasts": 18,
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- "stars": 1
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- "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "stars": 1
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- "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "numforecasts": 15,
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- "title": "10 million",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
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{
"title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",
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@@ -3639,6 +3759,26 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "stars": 1
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{
"title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3659,6 +3799,66 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
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+ "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasters": 13,
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+ {
+ "title": "10 million",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
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+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
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{
"title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",
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@@ -3679,126 +3879,6 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
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},
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- "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.853125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.14687499999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3820,42 +3900,42 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8538461538461538,
+ "probability": 0.9053333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 15,
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11076923076923077,
+ "probability": 0.106875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8892307692307693,
+ "probability": 0.893125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 16,
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -3899,6 +3979,26 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.853125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.14687499999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Trump dies of COVID-19",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3919,66 +4019,6 @@
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9466666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.106875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.893125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7324999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4000,58 +4040,58 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1336842105263158,
+ "probability": 0.4310526315789474,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8663157894736842,
+ "probability": 0.5689473684210526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04923076923076923,
+ "probability": 0.49242424242424243,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9507692307692308,
+ "probability": 0.5075757575757576,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 33,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3666666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4059,166 +4099,6 @@
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07714285714285714,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9228571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6315384615384615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3684615384615385,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4607142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5392857142857144,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14333333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8566666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03833333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9616666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.027333333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9726666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4259,6 +4139,46 @@
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5246666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4753333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03833333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9616666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4280,18 +4200,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5107142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.175,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4299,66 +4219,6 @@
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6653846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33461538461538465,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8683333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1316666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14166666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8583333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4400,18 +4260,58 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24333333333333332,
+ "probability": 0.6333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7566666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.3666666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.027333333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9726666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4420,58 +4320,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6083333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.5107142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3916666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.4892857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3358333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.6653846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6641666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.013076923076923076,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9869230769230769,
+ "probability": 0.33461538461538465,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4480,18 +4360,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.14333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.8566666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4500,63 +4380,23 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49242424242424243,
+ "probability": 0.6315384615384615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5075757575757576,
+ "probability": 0.3684615384615385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4310526315789474,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5689473684210526,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5246666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4753333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
@@ -4580,78 +4420,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2025,
+ "probability": 0.4607142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7975,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.006,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.994,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46692307692307694,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.533076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8407142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.5392857142857144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4659,6 +4439,46 @@
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8683333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.1316666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.14166666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8583333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4720,62 +4540,222 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23377083333333332,
+ "probability": 0.07714285714285714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7662291666666667,
+ "probability": 0.9228571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "numforecasters": 11,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
+ "probability": 0.24333333333333332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
+ "probability": 0.7566666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6083333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.3916666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15928571428571428,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8407142857142857,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.013076923076923076,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9869230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4081818181818182,
+ "probability": 0.46692307692307694,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5918181818181818,
+ "probability": 0.533076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.006,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.994,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3358333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6641666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2025,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7975,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.33090909090909093,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6690909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "'President Mike Pence'",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.140625,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.859375,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -4800,38 +4780,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "50 million",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.016470588235294115,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.9835294117647059,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasts": 34,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26272727272727275,
+ "probability": 0.20727272727272728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7372727272727273,
+ "probability": 0.7927272727272727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4840,38 +4820,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38636363636363635,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6136363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2366666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7633333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4879,86 +4839,6 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7516666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2483333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8366666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21272727272727274,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7872727272727272,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4979,26 +4859,6 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "50 million",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.016470588235294115,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9835294117647059,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5039,6 +4899,66 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9325,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.0675,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.57,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7783333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.22166666666666668,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5060,18 +4980,118 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
+ "probability": 0.6679999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2888,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7112,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4081818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5918181818181818,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.26272727272727275,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7372727272727273,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.29083333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7091666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5079,6 +5099,26 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.45307692307692304,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.546923076923077,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5099,46 +5139,6 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6778571428571429,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32214285714285706,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33090909090909093,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6690909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5180,22 +5180,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5557142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.16333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4442857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.8366666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasts": 12,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -5219,6 +5219,26 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.31384615384615383,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6861538461538461,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5240,62 +5260,22 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28428571428571425,
+ "probability": 0.38636363636363635,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7157142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.6136363636363636,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6592857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.34071428571428575,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6866666666666668,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31333333333333324,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasts": 11,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -5319,86 +5299,6 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4592307692307692,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5407692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31636363636363635,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6836363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10785714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8921428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5419,46 +5319,6 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "'President Mike Pence'",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.140625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.859375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7783333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22166666666666668,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5519,6 +5379,26 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5559,26 +5439,6 @@
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5269230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47307692307692306,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5600,102 +5460,42 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2888,
+ "probability": 0.5557142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7112,
+ "probability": 0.4442857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.332,
+ "probability": 0.6592857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6679999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.34071428571428575,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4153846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5846153846153845,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29083333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7091666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03769230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9623076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -5720,242 +5520,302 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.20727272727272728,
+ "probability": 0.28428571428571425,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7927272727272727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31384615384615383,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6861538461538461,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45307692307692304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.546923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9325,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.0675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17923076923076922,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8207692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44166666666666665,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5583333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09357142857142858,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9064285714285714,
+ "probability": 0.7157142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
+ "probability": 0.6866666666666668,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.31333333333333324,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.413,
+ "probability": 0.31636363636363635,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.587,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.261,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.739,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5484615384615384,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45153846153846156,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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}
],
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+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasts": 13,
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+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasts": 12,
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+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5269230769230769,
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+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasts": 13,
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+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6778571428571429,
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+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
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+ {
+ "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.21272727272727274,
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+ "name": "No",
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+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.10785714285714286,
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+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8921428571428571,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.217,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.783,
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+ "numforecasts": 10,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
@@ -5979,26 +5839,6 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6019,106 +5859,6 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.789,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21099999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13142857142857142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8685714285714285,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10916666666666666,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8908333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2907692307692308,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7092307692307692,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39454545454545453,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6054545454545455,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6179,66 +5919,6 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.309,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6910000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.158,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.842,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6259,66 +5939,6 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13083333333333333,
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- "name": "No",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.025,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.975,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3681818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6318181818181818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6339,166 +5959,6 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08857142857142858,
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- "name": "No",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
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- {
- "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.750909090909091,
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "No",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17300000000000001,
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 10,
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- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6036363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.113,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.887,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.013636363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9863636363636363,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.217,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.783,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6519,46 +5979,6 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
- {
- "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.556,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44399999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.042,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.958,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
{
"title": "“China will break apart by 2030”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6580,18 +6000,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07090909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.39454545454545453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9290909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.6054545454545455,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6600,78 +6020,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.060909090909090906,
+ "probability": 0.44166666666666665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9390909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09571428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9042857142857142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5272727272727272,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4727272727272728,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1
- },
- {
- "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7066666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.5583333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6680,18 +6040,18 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.198,
+ "probability": 0.309,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.802,
+ "probability": 0.6910000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6700,18 +6060,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26384615384615384,
+ "probability": 0.13083333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7361538461538462,
+ "probability": 0.8691666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6720,38 +6100,78 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.204,
+ "probability": 0.2907692307692308,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.796,
+ "probability": 0.7092307692307692,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12090909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.09357142857142858,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8790909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.9064285714285714,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4107692307692308,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5892307692307692,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3681818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6318181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6760,38 +6180,38 @@
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22083333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.261,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7791666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.739,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasts": 10,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
- "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.005,
+ "probability": 0.413,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.995,
+ "probability": 0.587,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6819,6 +6239,266 @@
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
+ {
+ "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.060909090909090906,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9390909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07090909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9290909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.22083333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7791666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.204,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.796,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.750909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.24909090909090903,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.158,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.842,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5272727272727272,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4727272727272728,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.10916666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8908333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.13142857142857142,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8685714285714285,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6036363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39636363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.789,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.21099999999999997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
{
"title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6838,5 +6518,325 @@
"numforecasts": 11,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08857142857142858,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9114285714285715,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5690909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4309090909090909,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.12090909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8790909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.26384615384615384,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7361538461538462,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.198,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.802,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7066666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.29333333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.042,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.958,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.556,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.44399999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.113,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.887,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.025,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.975,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17300000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.827,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.013636363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9863636363636363,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17923076923076922,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8207692307692308,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5484615384615384,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.45153846153846156,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09571428571428571,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9042857142857142,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json b/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json
index 21977b1..19469b9 100644
--- a/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json
+++ b/data/fantasyscotus-questions.json
@@ -443,7 +443,7 @@
"title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
+ "description": "0.00% (0 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -456,54 +456,54 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 8,
+ "numforecasts": 9,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "16.67% (1 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
+ "description": "28.57% (2 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8333333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.7142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 6,
+ "numforecasts": 7,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
+ "description": "80.00% (4 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 3,
+ "numforecasts": 5,
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
+ "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -516,7 +516,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 2,
+ "numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
},
{
@@ -583,7 +583,7 @@
"title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
+ "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -596,7 +596,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 2,
+ "numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2
},
{
diff --git a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json
index c09a93c..c34e096 100644
--- a/data/goodjudgment-questions.json
+++ b/data/goodjudgment-questions.json
@@ -17,17 +17,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.0%",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -51,12 +51,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.5,
+ "probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -75,12 +75,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -94,17 +94,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -133,22 +133,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.6 billion",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -166,12 +166,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -200,17 +200,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -234,12 +234,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -259,7 +259,7 @@
"title": "As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as \"next waves\" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.",
+ "description": "Closed 28 March 2021; resolved as \"B: Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive\" The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as \"next waves\" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 275,000",
@@ -335,12 +335,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -383,12 +383,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -412,7 +412,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -422,12 +422,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 4%",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -446,12 +446,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 100%",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -470,12 +470,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -504,12 +504,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
index 76ac7f6..1c19237 100644
--- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
+++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
@@ -7,17 +7,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.67,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "27",
- "numforecasters": "27",
+ "numforecasts": "52",
+ "numforecasters": "48",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -28,17 +28,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "26",
- "numforecasters": "22",
+ "numforecasts": "40",
+ "numforecasters": "33",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -64,17 +64,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "98",
- "numforecasters": "62",
+ "numforecasts": "105",
+ "numforecasters": "66",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -95,17 +95,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$180 billion or more",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "29",
- "numforecasters": "25",
+ "numforecasts": "36",
+ "numforecasters": "28",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -130,8 +130,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "59",
- "numforecasters": "53",
+ "numforecasts": "63",
+ "numforecasters": "57",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -152,12 +152,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.65,
+ "probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -166,8 +166,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "48",
- "numforecasters": "34",
+ "numforecasts": "51",
+ "numforecasters": "36",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -188,22 +188,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%",
- "probability": 0.44,
+ "probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher than 3.1%",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "99",
- "numforecasters": "68",
+ "numforecasts": "104",
+ "numforecasters": "70",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -219,7 +219,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Judas and the Black Messiah",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -229,12 +229,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Minari",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nomadland",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -258,8 +258,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "82",
- "numforecasters": "58",
+ "numforecasts": "83",
+ "numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -285,12 +285,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -299,8 +299,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "55",
- "numforecasters": "39",
+ "numforecasts": "58",
+ "numforecasters": "41",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -311,17 +311,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "108",
- "numforecasters": "72",
+ "numforecasts": "117",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -347,17 +347,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.26,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19.0 million",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "198",
- "numforecasters": "116",
+ "numforecasts": "219",
+ "numforecasters": "122",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -373,32 +373,32 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $55 billion",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "74",
+ "numforecasts": "102",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -409,17 +409,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "99",
- "numforecasters": "71",
+ "numforecasts": "105",
+ "numforecasters": "75",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -430,7 +430,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $75 billion",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -445,7 +445,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -455,12 +455,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "68",
- "numforecasters": "43",
+ "numforecasts": "70",
+ "numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -490,8 +490,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "167",
- "numforecasters": "97",
+ "numforecasts": "171",
+ "numforecasters": "98",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -511,8 +511,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "61",
- "numforecasters": "37",
+ "numforecasts": "64",
+ "numforecasters": "39",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -552,8 +552,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "178",
- "numforecasters": "63",
+ "numforecasts": "183",
+ "numforecasters": "64",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -594,12 +594,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -618,8 +618,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "634",
- "numforecasters": "157",
+ "numforecasts": "694",
+ "numforecasters": "161",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -630,17 +630,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "142",
- "numforecasters": "81",
+ "numforecasts": "147",
+ "numforecasters": "82",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -651,12 +651,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -665,7 +665,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "78",
+ "numforecasts": "81",
"numforecasters": "41",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -677,17 +677,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "521",
- "numforecasters": "372",
+ "numforecasts": "542",
+ "numforecasters": "378",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -708,22 +708,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 9 and 13",
- "probability": 0.48,
+ "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 14 and 18",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 18",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "407",
- "numforecasters": "268",
+ "numforecasts": "416",
+ "numforecasters": "270",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -743,8 +743,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "424",
- "numforecasters": "343",
+ "numforecasts": "432",
+ "numforecasters": "347",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -764,8 +764,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "240",
- "numforecasters": "194",
+ "numforecasts": "245",
+ "numforecasters": "196",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -781,12 +781,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -800,8 +800,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "306",
- "numforecasters": "200",
+ "numforecasts": "313",
+ "numforecasters": "201",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -822,12 +822,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -836,7 +836,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "81",
+ "numforecasts": "82",
"numforecasters": "26",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -848,12 +848,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.4%",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.64,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -872,8 +872,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "185",
- "numforecasters": "92",
+ "numforecasts": "192",
+ "numforecasters": "95",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -889,17 +889,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -908,8 +908,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "157",
- "numforecasters": "53",
+ "numforecasts": "163",
+ "numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -920,12 +920,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled",
- "probability": 0.94,
+ "probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -934,8 +934,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "140",
- "numforecasters": "58",
+ "numforecasts": "143",
+ "numforecasters": "60",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -951,17 +951,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "550",
- "numforecasters": "352",
+ "numforecasts": "568",
+ "numforecasters": "357",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -972,17 +972,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "81",
- "numforecasters": "48",
+ "numforecasts": "82",
+ "numforecasters": "49",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1002,8 +1002,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "190",
- "numforecasters": "80",
+ "numforecasts": "193",
+ "numforecasters": "81",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1023,8 +1023,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "218",
- "numforecasters": "76",
+ "numforecasts": "221",
+ "numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1044,7 +1044,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "95",
+ "numforecasts": "96",
"numforecasters": "54",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1056,17 +1056,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "261",
- "numforecasters": "118",
+ "numforecasts": "270",
+ "numforecasters": "120",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1086,8 +1086,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "190",
- "numforecasters": "141",
+ "numforecasts": "194",
+ "numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1117,8 +1117,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "184",
- "numforecasters": "123",
+ "numforecasts": "186",
+ "numforecasters": "124",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1138,8 +1138,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "169",
- "numforecasters": "87",
+ "numforecasts": "173",
+ "numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1150,7 +1150,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Brooklyn Nets",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1165,7 +1165,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Milwaukee Bucks",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1179,8 +1179,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "149",
- "numforecasters": "53",
+ "numforecasts": "151",
+ "numforecasters": "54",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1191,17 +1191,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "160",
- "numforecasters": "86",
+ "numforecasts": "162",
+ "numforecasters": "87",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1221,8 +1221,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "117",
- "numforecasters": "75",
+ "numforecasts": "118",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1242,8 +1242,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "303",
- "numforecasters": "111",
+ "numforecasts": "309",
+ "numforecasters": "112",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1254,17 +1254,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1273,8 +1273,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "256",
- "numforecasters": "143",
+ "numforecasts": "257",
+ "numforecasters": "144",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1290,17 +1290,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion",
- "probability": 0.54,
+ "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1309,8 +1309,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "159",
- "numforecasters": "75",
+ "numforecasts": "163",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1330,8 +1330,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "101",
- "numforecasters": "58",
+ "numforecasts": "104",
+ "numforecasters": "60",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1356,8 +1356,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "64",
+ "numforecasts": "97",
+ "numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1368,17 +1368,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "230",
- "numforecasters": "87",
+ "numforecasts": "236",
+ "numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1398,8 +1398,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "160",
- "numforecasters": "98",
+ "numforecasts": "162",
+ "numforecasters": "100",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1419,15 +1419,15 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "284",
- "numforecasters": "154",
+ "numforecasts": "291",
+ "numforecasters": "155",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e4878885968d828d8785908d8b8a97a4838b8b808e91808389818a90ca878b89db9791868e818790d9b5918197908d8b8ac1d6d4a78885968d828d8785908d8b8a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#66050a07140f000f0507120f09081526010909020c1302010b0308124805090b591513040c0305125b37130315120f0908435456250a07140f000f0507120f0908). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -1440,7 +1440,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "409",
+ "numforecasts": "410",
"numforecasters": "197",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1462,7 +1462,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1472,12 +1472,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "425",
- "numforecasters": "72",
+ "numforecasts": "437",
+ "numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1498,22 +1498,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 15 and 21",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 22 and 28",
- "probability": 0.63,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "29 or more",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "651",
- "numforecasters": "122",
+ "numforecasts": "694",
+ "numforecasters": "128",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1533,7 +1533,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "167",
+ "numforecasts": "168",
"numforecasters": "117",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1545,16 +1545,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "304",
+ "numforecasts": "311",
"numforecasters": "147",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1592,12 +1592,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats",
- "probability": 0.43,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "300 seats or more",
- "probability": 0.54,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1606,8 +1606,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "188",
- "numforecasters": "92",
+ "numforecasts": "191",
+ "numforecasters": "93",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1632,7 +1632,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "78",
+ "numforecasts": "79",
"numforecasters": "36",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1644,12 +1644,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1658,8 +1658,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "223",
- "numforecasters": "83",
+ "numforecasts": "225",
+ "numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1679,7 +1679,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "111",
+ "numforecasts": "112",
"numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1691,12 +1691,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $75 billion",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1706,7 +1706,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1715,7 +1715,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "247",
+ "numforecasts": "251",
"numforecasters": "68",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1727,16 +1727,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "170",
+ "numforecasts": "174",
"numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1748,7 +1748,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1758,11 +1758,11 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.93,
+ "probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "127",
+ "numforecasts": "130",
"numforecasters": "69",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1774,16 +1774,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.82,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "280",
+ "numforecasts": "284",
"numforecasters": "139",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1851,7 +1851,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "195",
+ "numforecasts": "196",
"numforecasters": "68",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1877,7 +1877,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "211",
+ "numforecasts": "212",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1899,12 +1899,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -1913,7 +1913,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "287",
+ "numforecasts": "290",
"numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1934,7 +1934,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "225",
+ "numforecasts": "227",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1960,8 +1960,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "112",
- "numforecasters": "76",
+ "numforecasts": "113",
+ "numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -1972,16 +1972,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "175",
+ "numforecasts": "179",
"numforecasters": "81",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -1993,17 +1993,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "233",
- "numforecasters": "64",
+ "numforecasts": "242",
+ "numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2028,7 +2028,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "495",
+ "numforecasts": "497",
"numforecasters": "197",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2059,7 +2059,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "454",
+ "numforecasts": "456",
"numforecasters": "217",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2080,7 +2080,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "283",
+ "numforecasts": "284",
"numforecasters": "147",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2101,7 +2101,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "376",
+ "numforecasts": "377",
"numforecasters": "228",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2122,7 +2122,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "298",
+ "numforecasts": "300",
"numforecasters": "103",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2144,16 +2144,16 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "353",
+ "numforecasts": "358",
"numforecasters": "104",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2174,7 +2174,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "254",
+ "numforecasts": "255",
"numforecasters": "126",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2191,26 +2191,26 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0.33,
+ "probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "274",
+ "numforecasts": "278",
"numforecasters": "99",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2252,7 +2252,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "415",
+ "numforecasts": "416",
"numforecasters": "209",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2273,7 +2273,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "115",
+ "numforecasts": "116",
"numforecasters": "61",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2316,12 +2316,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2330,7 +2330,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "280",
+ "numforecasts": "282",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2342,7 +2342,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, only for president",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2352,7 +2352,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, for both president and parliament",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2361,7 +2361,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "144",
+ "numforecasts": "145",
"numforecasters": "30",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2382,8 +2382,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "481",
- "numforecasters": "208",
+ "numforecasts": "489",
+ "numforecasters": "210",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2404,12 +2404,12 @@
},
{
"name": "A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2423,7 +2423,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "223",
+ "numforecasts": "225",
"numforecasters": "83",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2435,16 +2435,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "613",
+ "numforecasts": "617",
"numforecasters": "202",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2461,7 +2461,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2476,12 +2476,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 8.0%",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "573",
- "numforecasters": "252",
+ "numforecasts": "576",
+ "numforecasters": "253",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2516,8 +2516,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1868",
- "numforecasters": "608",
+ "numforecasts": "1893",
+ "numforecasters": "616",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2547,7 +2547,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "524",
+ "numforecasts": "525",
"numforecasters": "218",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2568,8 +2568,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "345",
- "numforecasters": "208",
+ "numforecasts": "346",
+ "numforecasters": "209",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2589,8 +2589,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "579",
- "numforecasters": "254",
+ "numforecasts": "588",
+ "numforecasters": "255",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2610,7 +2610,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "237",
+ "numforecasts": "240",
"numforecasters": "126",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2652,7 +2652,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "334",
+ "numforecasts": "339",
"numforecasters": "167",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2688,8 +2688,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "324",
- "numforecasters": "88",
+ "numforecasts": "336",
+ "numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2709,8 +2709,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "244",
- "numforecasters": "60",
+ "numforecasts": "246",
+ "numforecasters": "61",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2730,8 +2730,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "332",
- "numforecasters": "173",
+ "numforecasts": "335",
+ "numforecasters": "174",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2751,7 +2751,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "274",
+ "numforecasts": "276",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2778,17 +2778,17 @@
},
{
"name": "7 or 8",
- "probability": 0.99,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "9 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1487",
- "numforecasters": "212",
+ "numforecasts": "1498",
+ "numforecasters": "214",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2808,8 +2808,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "302",
- "numforecasters": "64",
+ "numforecasts": "305",
+ "numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -2922,7 +2922,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "576",
+ "numforecasts": "582",
"numforecasters": "157",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2943,7 +2943,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "778",
+ "numforecasts": "781",
"numforecasters": "157",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -2955,17 +2955,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.00%",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2979,8 +2979,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "523",
- "numforecasters": "230",
+ "numforecasts": "530",
+ "numforecasters": "233",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3006,17 +3006,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.6 million",
- "probability": 0.43,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "512",
- "numforecasters": "94",
+ "numforecasts": "516",
+ "numforecasters": "95",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3046,8 +3046,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "493",
- "numforecasters": "75",
+ "numforecasts": "498",
+ "numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3088,7 +3088,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "424",
+ "numforecasts": "425",
"numforecasters": "161",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3134,7 +3134,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "390",
+ "numforecasts": "391",
"numforecasters": "116",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3170,7 +3170,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "709",
+ "numforecasts": "711",
"numforecasters": "205",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3191,8 +3191,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1183",
- "numforecasters": "456",
+ "numforecasts": "1188",
+ "numforecasters": "457",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3233,8 +3233,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "345",
- "numforecasters": "154",
+ "numforecasts": "346",
+ "numforecasters": "155",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3276,21 +3276,21 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.56,
+ "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "887",
+ "numforecasts": "895",
"numforecasters": "167",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3323,16 +3323,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 1,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "328",
+ "numforecasts": "329",
"numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3420,8 +3420,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "336",
- "numforecasters": "76",
+ "numforecasts": "340",
+ "numforecasters": "78",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3554,8 +3554,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "900",
- "numforecasters": "308",
+ "numforecasts": "911",
+ "numforecasters": "311",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3587,16 +3587,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "677",
+ "numforecasts": "681",
"numforecasters": "143",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3627,7 +3627,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "250",
+ "numforecasts": "251",
"numforecasters": "95",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3735,8 +3735,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1214",
- "numforecasters": "190",
+ "numforecasts": "1220",
+ "numforecasters": "192",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3757,17 +3757,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "2234",
- "numforecasters": "898",
+ "numforecasts": "2255",
+ "numforecasters": "907",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3808,8 +3808,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1119",
- "numforecasters": "476",
+ "numforecasts": "1127",
+ "numforecasters": "478",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -3880,7 +3880,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "285",
+ "numforecasts": "286",
"numforecasters": "75",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3911,7 +3911,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "398",
+ "numforecasts": "399",
"numforecasters": "219",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -3990,12 +3990,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -4004,7 +4004,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "441",
+ "numforecasts": "444",
"numforecasters": "149",
"stars": 3
},
@@ -4025,7 +4025,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "269",
+ "numforecasts": "270",
"numforecasters": "98",
"stars": 3
},
diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.json b/data/hypermind-questions.json
index ee2ad77..42e088c 100644
--- a/data/hypermind-questions.json
+++ b/data/hypermind-questions.json
@@ -25,12 +25,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -82,57 +82,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
+ "probability": 0.03883495145631068,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pierre de Villiers",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.12871287128712872,
+ "probability": 0.1262135922330097,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.5445544554455446,
+ "probability": 0.5728155339805825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.01941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Piolle",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another woman",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another man",
- "probability": 0.1485148514851485,
+ "probability": 0.14563106796116507,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -146,22 +146,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.6435643564356436,
+ "probability": 0.712871287128713,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.1089108910891089,
+ "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
- "probability": 0.20792079207920794,
+ "probability": 0.17821782178217824,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither of them",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
+ "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -194,17 +194,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.7142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Later in 2021",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not in 2021",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.08571428571428572,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -257,32 +257,32 @@
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.26,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.017094017094017092,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
- "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
+ "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
- "probability": 0.2178217821782178,
+ "probability": 0.28205128205128205,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
- "probability": 0.693069306930693,
+ "probability": 0.47008547008547,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -296,27 +296,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In May or earlier",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in June (government goal)",
- "probability": 0.44554455445544555,
+ "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in July",
- "probability": 0.3564356435643565,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in August",
- "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -330,12 +330,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -349,22 +349,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abdelilah Benkirane",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else from PJD",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else not from PJD",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.8019801980198019,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -421,12 +421,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44360902255639095,
+ "probability": 0.44696969696969696,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.556390977443609,
+ "probability": 0.5530303030303031,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -445,22 +445,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mathias Dzon",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No election in 2021",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -547,27 +547,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
- "probability": 0.020618556701030924,
+ "probability": 0.01941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.28865979381443296,
+ "probability": 0.3300970873786408,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.37113402061855666,
+ "probability": 0.34951456310679613,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.17525773195876287,
+ "probability": 0.1650485436893204,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.14432989690721648,
+ "probability": 0.1359223300970874,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -629,32 +629,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
- "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
+ "probability": 0.32291666666666674,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)",
- "probability": 0.5346534653465347,
+ "probability": 0.46875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another member of CDU/CSU",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
+ "probability": 0.04166666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of SPD",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
+ "probability": 0.05208333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of the Green party",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.10416666666666669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.010416666666666668,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -668,27 +668,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "in Q1, 2021",
- "probability": 0.051948051948051945,
+ "probability": 0.03296703296703297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.1948051948051948,
+ "probability": 0.3296703296703297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.2207792207792208,
+ "probability": 0.18681318681318682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.24675324675324675,
+ "probability": 0.2087912087912088,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Perhaps later",
- "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.2417582417582418,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -702,22 +702,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428567,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
- "probability": 0.5142857142857142,
+ "probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.32380952380952377,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -731,22 +731,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.8854166666666667,
+ "probability": 0.8712871287128712,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
- "probability": 0.04166666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.020833333333333336,
+ "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.05208333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.0594059405940594,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -798,12 +798,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json
index 466db97..1e8f11f 100644
--- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json
+++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json
@@ -871,37 +871,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.39833716101653427,
+ "probability": 0.35524640286087616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.04267898153748581,
+ "probability": 0.034158307967391936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.05272109484042366,
+ "probability": 0.0807378188320173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.008873847646407942,
+ "probability": 0.008793227793586043,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.017573698280141218,
+ "probability": 0.017414039355925302,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.39833716101653427,
+ "probability": 0.42291238435818584,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.08147805566247292,
+ "probability": 0.0807378188320173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1824,11 +1824,6 @@
"probability": 0.017344956233270977,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
- {
- "name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)",
- "probability": 0.026017434349906464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
{
"name": "SDP",
"probability": 0.004400959044262785,
@@ -1858,6 +1853,39 @@
"name": "Sam Lee (Ind)",
"probability": 0.004400959044262785,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)",
+ "probability": 0.026017434349906464,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Hartlepool By-election: Thelma Walker Vote Share",
+ "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+ "platform": "Ladbrokes",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Under 5%",
+ "probability": 0.5433431584928442,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "5-10%",
+ "probability": 0.3024610248943499,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "10-20%",
+ "probability": 0.10082034163144997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Over 20%",
+ "probability": 0.05337547498135587,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
@@ -2046,17 +2074,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
- "probability": 0.15682281059063136,
+ "probability": 0.15909090909090906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
- "probability": 0.1710794297352342,
+ "probability": 0.15909090909090906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023 or later",
- "probability": 0.6720977596741344,
+ "probability": 0.6818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3409,6 +3437,24 @@
],
"stars": 2
},
+ {
+ "title": "Boris Johnson to be replaced as PM before end 2022",
+ "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+ "platform": "LadBrokes",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7142857142857143,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
{
"title": "Piers Morgan to become PM before 2040",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.json b/data/metaculus-questions.json
index 92eab21..928b1d5 100644
--- a/data/metaculus-questions.json
+++ b/data/metaculus-questions.json
@@ -41,55 +41,74 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
+ "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
+ "probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 356,
+ "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 107,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
+ "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 45,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 130,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 36,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-02T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-29T19:49:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-23T19:51:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -109,7 +128,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 259,
+ "numforecasts": 260,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
@@ -118,32 +137,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n",
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/",
@@ -160,204 +153,74 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
+ "title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 183,
+ "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what latitude will it start in?\nLatitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2049-12-30T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
- "numforecasts": 585,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
- "numforecasts": 235,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
+ "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 130,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/",
+ "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 52,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1071,
+ "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 56,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 243,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -407,7 +270,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 521,
+ "numforecasts": 522,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z",
@@ -432,29 +295,335 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
+ "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 34,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 286,
+ "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 88,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 50,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 161,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.32,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 363,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 92,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 183,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.44,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 186,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 1071,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-11-30T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 77,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 243,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -473,33 +642,63 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
+ "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 135,
+ "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 130,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
+ "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
+ "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 43,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 115,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -528,43 +727,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasts": 48,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -603,21 +772,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/",
@@ -634,29 +788,33 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
+ "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 109,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 76,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -674,13 +832,39 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 80,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
+ "numforecasts": 62,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-14T22:00:00Z",
@@ -689,6 +873,58 @@
"resolve_time": "2032-06-01T04:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 121,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 656,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/",
@@ -742,33 +978,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
+ "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
- "numforecasts": 222,
+ "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -802,18 +1023,100 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
+ "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 107,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.18,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
"numforecasts": 73,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -832,44 +1135,70 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
+ "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
+ "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 260,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
+ "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
+ "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 27,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 330,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -899,18 +1228,44 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/",
+ "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 148,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.67,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 279,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -929,33 +1284,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/",
+ "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n",
- "numforecasts": 148,
+ "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 74,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -989,63 +1329,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
+ "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
+ "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 153,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1054,7 +1349,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n",
- "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasts": 19,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
@@ -1064,18 +1359,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/",
+ "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 150,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1093,32 +1399,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n",
- "numforecasts": 371,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
@@ -1134,43 +1414,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
+ "numforecasts": 52,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
@@ -1235,6 +1485,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n",
+ "numforecasts": 508,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/",
@@ -1261,36 +1541,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-04T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 508,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 298,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/",
@@ -1307,59 +1557,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
+ "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 269,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1369,17 +1578,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
+ "numforecasts": 154,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z",
@@ -1389,44 +1598,126 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/",
+ "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC):\nHearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick.\nLet's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses.\nThe \"always open\" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season?\nWill Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?\nResolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location.\n",
- "numforecasts": 247,
+ "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 142,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-02T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-15T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T19:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/",
+ "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 983,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 171,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 76,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-10-03T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 114,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 103,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 97,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1460,18 +1751,33 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/",
+ "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
+ "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will PHP die?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 97,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1500,6 +1806,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-01T23:13:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 133,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.53,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.47,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 229,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/",
@@ -1515,36 +1877,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will PHP die?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/",
@@ -1561,29 +1893,89 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
+ "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 98,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
+ "probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
+ "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 972,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 298,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 71,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 403,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1603,7 +1995,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\nJeff McAulay argued,\nEvery major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\nStephen Zoepf countered,\nI agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.\nWill driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?\nIf Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z",
@@ -1612,32 +2004,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-05-27T07:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
@@ -1683,6 +2049,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-15T18:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-16T18:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/",
@@ -1698,13 +2079,39 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.54,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 382,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
- "numforecasts": 228,
+ "numforecasts": 229,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z",
@@ -1713,6 +2120,58 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.73,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 71,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.11,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.89,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 63,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/",
@@ -1744,59 +2203,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/",
+ "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
+ "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
+ "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 374,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -1911,6 +2340,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-02T03:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 196,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/",
@@ -1926,6 +2370,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=124411317§ion=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 137,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/",
@@ -1957,96 +2442,96 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/",
+ "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=124411317§ion=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n",
- "numforecasts": 16,
+ "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 93,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/",
+ "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n",
- "numforecasts": 330,
+ "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
+ "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 130,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
+ "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 208,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2064,6 +2549,88 @@
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 287,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.\nOn 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).\nAfter Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.\nA Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. \nAccording to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):\nThe fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. \nWill no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?\nThis question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.\nIn case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 403,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 519,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
@@ -2090,36 +2657,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 519,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
@@ -2137,7 +2674,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
- "numforecasts": 271,
+ "numforecasts": 272,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
@@ -2147,33 +2684,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
+ "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 460,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2203,29 +2736,70 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/",
+ "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 49,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
+ "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
+ "numforecasts": 589,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.18,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 177,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2260,7 +2834,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasts": 61,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
@@ -2269,58 +2843,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/",
@@ -2348,18 +2870,96 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/",
+ "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 49,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.31,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.69,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 43,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.63,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.37,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 111,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2388,6 +2988,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.47,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.53,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 403,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/",
@@ -2418,32 +3044,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
- "numforecasts": 403,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
@@ -2459,28 +3059,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 642,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 232,
+ "numforecasts": 234,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
@@ -2490,29 +3075,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/",
+ "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 2787,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 673,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2542,111 +3116,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). \n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
- "numforecasts": 170,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
+ "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
+ "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 263,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-10-03T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2675,6 +3156,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/",
@@ -2702,100 +3198,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/",
+ "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
+ "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2813,21 +3238,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/",
@@ -2843,21 +3253,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6689/skyroot-aerospace-successful-satellite-launch/",
@@ -2873,6 +3268,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:43:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.33,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 116,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/",
@@ -2900,70 +3321,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n",
- "numforecasts": 972,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
+ "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 81,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -2987,7 +3356,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
- "numforecasts": 44,
+ "numforecasts": 46,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
@@ -2996,6 +3365,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/",
@@ -3011,32 +3406,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
- "numforecasts": 630,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
@@ -3052,6 +3421,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 110,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/",
@@ -3067,39 +3451,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 409,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
+ "numforecasts": 133,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z",
@@ -3123,88 +3481,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T18:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-16T18:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 184,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 382,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
@@ -3232,44 +3508,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
+ "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
+ "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3288,18 +3549,96 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 630,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 61,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 204,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 1349,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3317,6 +3656,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 411,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
@@ -3358,6 +3723,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 52,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/",
@@ -3384,21 +3764,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n",
- "numforecasts": 214,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/",
@@ -3466,6 +3831,58 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 2808,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 95,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
@@ -3560,29 +3977,81 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/",
+ "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 93,
+ "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 45,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.96,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 144,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3601,44 +4070,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
+ "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 200,
+ "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 237,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3657,96 +4111,89 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
+ "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
+ "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 135,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/",
+ "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
+ "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 68,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/",
+ "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.\nOn 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).\nAfter Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.\nA Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. \nAccording to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):\nThe fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. \nWill no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?\nThis question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.\nIn case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 403,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/",
+ "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 223,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 118,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3776,18 +4223,70 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
+ "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.88,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 1262,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 32,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3816,6 +4315,558 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 186,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 983,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 160,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n",
+ "numforecasts": 51,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.26,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.74,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 387,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 234,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 59,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 255,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 122,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 189,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 173,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.88,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 63,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 102,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 226,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 171,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 48,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 184,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 66,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 136,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 214,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 74,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. \nWith resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. \nGoing forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.\nHow many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nIn 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 36,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:25:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 225,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 177,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
@@ -3832,18 +4883,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/",
+ "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 23,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3873,33 +4924,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/",
+ "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
+ "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 32,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -3943,32 +4979,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2051-01-10T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
@@ -3984,21 +4994,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/",
@@ -4014,54 +5009,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
+ "numforecasts": 60,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -4143,7 +5097,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasts": 29,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
@@ -4182,6 +5136,73 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 63,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 95,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
@@ -4249,6 +5270,88 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 48,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.24,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.76,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/",
@@ -4331,6 +5434,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 57,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/",
@@ -4421,54 +5539,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
+ "numforecasts": 93,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
@@ -4503,6 +5580,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6879/may-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-05T23:04:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
@@ -4548,6 +5640,58 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 85,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-15T15:54:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.49,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.51,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 254,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/",
@@ -4589,6 +5733,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 110,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/",
@@ -4604,6 +5763,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 347,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/",
@@ -4645,32 +5819,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
@@ -4701,32 +5849,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/",
@@ -4769,29 +5891,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
+ "title": "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 26,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T07:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:01:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -4877,18 +5988,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/",
+ "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n",
+ "numforecasts": 67,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -4932,32 +6054,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n",
- "numforecasts": 385,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/",
@@ -4974,18 +6070,44 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
+ "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. \nWith resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. \nGoing forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.\nHow many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nIn 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.81,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):\nFor both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.\nWill scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?\nQuestion resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? \nThe relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. \nQuestion will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.\nQuestion receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 155,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 57,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -5014,21 +6136,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
@@ -5044,32 +6151,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/",
@@ -5085,62 +6166,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 331,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/",
@@ -5167,6 +6192,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 333,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/",
@@ -5198,29 +6253,74 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/",
+ "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 87,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 174,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6874/initial-jobless-claims-in-may-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-26T22:24:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-27T22:24:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
+ "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 289,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -5276,18 +6376,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
+ "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6880/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-may-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nPrevious Questions:\n[Change in US Durable Goods Orders April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for May 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-28T19:09:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -5316,6 +6416,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-02T01:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6876/industrial-production-index-may-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:40:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:40:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/",
@@ -5372,32 +6487,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/",
@@ -5439,32 +6528,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/",
@@ -5491,6 +6554,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2159-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 125,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.44,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/",
@@ -5508,7 +6612,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
@@ -5703,6 +6807,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.74,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.26,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 62,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
@@ -5744,21 +6874,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/",
@@ -5776,7 +6891,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
- "numforecasts": 301,
+ "numforecasts": 302,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
@@ -5785,21 +6900,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 246,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/",
@@ -5826,6 +6926,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 248,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/",
@@ -5858,7 +6973,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
+ "numforecasts": 107,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
@@ -5908,6 +7023,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.98,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 357,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
@@ -5923,6 +7064,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6877/cpi-u--change-for-may-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/)\n[CPI-U April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:49:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-12T22:49:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/",
@@ -5938,32 +7094,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6717/-b117-in-the-us-21-27-march/",
@@ -6031,28 +7161,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-12-31T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
+ "numforecasts": 74,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -6061,6 +7176,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 76,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
@@ -6076,32 +7206,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-03-30T19:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/",
@@ -6184,21 +7288,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
@@ -6490,21 +7579,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/",
@@ -6520,32 +7594,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/",
@@ -6576,6 +7624,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.51,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.49,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 44,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/",
@@ -6591,54 +7665,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-04-01T10:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 21,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
@@ -6692,21 +7725,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/",
@@ -6804,6 +7822,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-09-30T20:06:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 88,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/",
@@ -6821,7 +7865,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
+ "numforecasts": 138,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -6830,6 +7874,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 92,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/",
@@ -6998,6 +8068,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T03:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T13:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/",
@@ -7013,21 +8098,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6879/may-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-05T23:04:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/",
@@ -7043,32 +8113,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-15T15:54:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
@@ -7084,58 +8128,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-15T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 254,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/",
@@ -7151,21 +8143,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/",
@@ -7238,18 +8215,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
+ "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 345,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.58,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 21,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -7269,7 +8257,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 487,
+ "numforecasts": 492,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
@@ -7278,39 +8266,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n",
- "numforecasts": 144,
+ "numforecasts": 149,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
@@ -7319,32 +8281,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-07-15T07:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/",
@@ -7371,6 +8307,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-01T16:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.21,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.79,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 177,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
@@ -7479,32 +8441,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/",
@@ -7558,18 +8494,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/",
+ "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
+ "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 252,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T07:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:01:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -7587,21 +8523,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
@@ -7654,77 +8575,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Russia become a democracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will Russia become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n",
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n",
- "numforecasts": 304,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/",
@@ -7742,7 +8592,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
+ "numforecasts": 123,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
@@ -7751,6 +8601,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 305,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/",
@@ -7792,32 +8657,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/",
@@ -7833,6 +8672,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 156,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/",
@@ -7859,47 +8713,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n",
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):\nFor both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.\nWill scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?\nQuestion resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? \nThe relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. \nQuestion will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.\nQuestion receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.\n",
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
@@ -7982,32 +8795,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
- "numforecasts": 1253,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
@@ -8064,21 +8851,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/",
@@ -8095,18 +8867,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/",
+ "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
+ "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 115,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -8125,59 +8897,33 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/",
+ "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
- "numforecasts": 14,
+ "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 61,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/",
+ "title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 31,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2026-01-02T01:10:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -8195,36 +8941,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-15T20:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n",
- "numforecasts": 213,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/",
@@ -8242,7 +8958,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
+ "numforecasts": 127,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8251,6 +8967,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 213,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
@@ -8277,47 +9008,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6874/initial-jobless-claims-in-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-26T22:24:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-27T22:24:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 289,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
@@ -8359,6 +9049,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.\nWe ask:\nIn what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?\nResolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 158,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/",
@@ -8374,32 +9079,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-14T22:45:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 456,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/",
@@ -8432,7 +9111,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n",
- "numforecasts": 110,
+ "numforecasts": 111,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -8512,47 +9191,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n",
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 224,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/",
@@ -8568,32 +9206,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
@@ -8661,32 +9273,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-02-01T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
@@ -8728,32 +9314,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/",
@@ -8795,6 +9355,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-03-31T16:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 72,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/",
@@ -8821,32 +9407,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
@@ -8862,6 +9422,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 114,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/",
@@ -8910,17 +9496,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
+ "numforecasts": 177,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z",
@@ -8955,84 +9541,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n",
- "numforecasts": 357,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives vote to formally discipline a House Member?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1346,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/",
@@ -9074,21 +9582,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6916/when-will-the-suez-canal-blockage-be-cleared/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Suez Canal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) is an artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea through the Isthmus of Suez; and dividing Africa and Asia. The canal offers watercraft a more direct route between the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans via the Mediterranean and Red seas, thus avoiding the South Atlantic and southern Indian oceans and reducing the journey distance from the Arabian Sea to London, for example, by approximately 8,900 kilometres (5,500 mi). It extends from the northern terminus of Port Said to the southern terminus of Port Tewfik at the city of Suez. Its length is 193.30 km (120.11 mi) including its northern and southern access-channels. In 2012, 17,225 vessels traversed the canal (an average of 47 per day).\nAt 07:40 Eastern European Time on 23 March 2021, the [Ever Given](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given), a Golden-class container ship, one of the largest in the world, was passing through the Suez Canal on its way to Rotterdam from Tanjung Pelepas when it ran aground, turned sideways and blocked the canal, causing the canal to be impassable, and significantly disrupting international shipping.\nAs of 24 March 2021, eight tugboats are working to re-float the vessel in collaboration with diggers removing sand from the side of the canal where the vessel is wedged.\nWhen will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?\nThis question resolves as the time and date the Suez Canal becomes navigable by commercial shipping vessels, as reported by a major news organization (e.g. AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, etc.).\nETA (26 March): Ships with a beam of at least 20 meters must be able to pass the canal for this question to resolve positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-26T11:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
@@ -9104,6 +9597,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/",
@@ -9119,32 +9627,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/",
@@ -9160,6 +9642,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-04-02T22:14:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). \nWhen will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?\nResolution\nCompanies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.\nThis question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 89,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/",
@@ -9182,17 +9679,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
+ "numforecasts": 94,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z",
@@ -9242,47 +9739,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
- "numforecasts": 241,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/",
@@ -9300,7 +9756,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1261,
+ "numforecasts": 1262,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z",
@@ -9391,6 +9847,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/",
@@ -9417,32 +9899,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
@@ -9525,21 +9981,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/",
@@ -9652,6 +10093,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 203,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
@@ -9667,6 +10134,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-12-31T22:27:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 103,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
@@ -9727,6 +10209,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-02T17:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.\nSince the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. \nThis question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.\nTo qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-16: the sentence \"The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts\" was changed to \"The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans\". \n",
+ "numforecasts": 232,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/",
@@ -9768,65 +10265,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n",
- "numforecasts": 279,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 256,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasts": 51,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -9871,7 +10316,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
+ "numforecasts": 147,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
@@ -9880,21 +10325,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/",
@@ -9996,6 +10426,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 249,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/",
@@ -10026,21 +10471,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
@@ -10165,18 +10595,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/",
+ "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 195,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.44,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 97,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -10261,6 +10702,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.\nIn contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.\nQuestion Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:\n1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) \n2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) \n3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) \n4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. \nResolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030.\nSpecifics and Caveats:\n1-- \nMulti-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. \n2-- \nFor text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.\n3-- \nFor image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.\n4-- \nIf [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 98,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
@@ -10347,32 +10803,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/",
@@ -10414,21 +10844,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/",
@@ -10522,32 +10937,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 640,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/",
@@ -10595,7 +10984,22 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 478,
+ "numforecasts": 479,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 101,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -10621,7 +11025,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n",
- "numforecasts": 875,
+ "numforecasts": 876,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z",
@@ -10630,21 +11034,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
@@ -10716,47 +11105,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T13:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
@@ -10793,7 +11141,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 154,
+ "numforecasts": 156,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -10832,32 +11180,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/",
@@ -10888,21 +11210,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-02T01:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
@@ -10919,18 +11226,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
+ "title": "When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.\nWe ask:\nIn what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?\nResolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
+ "description": "In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).\nSince beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.\nWhen will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.\nResolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.\nIf this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2032\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 72,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-01-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -11015,32 +11322,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/",
@@ -11082,21 +11363,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-05T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/",
@@ -11123,21 +11389,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 438,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/",
@@ -11153,6 +11404,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-05-31T21:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 438,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
@@ -11179,21 +11445,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/",
@@ -11225,18 +11476,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/",
+ "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). \nWhen will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?\nResolution\nCompanies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.\nThis question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
+ "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -11271,7 +11522,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n",
- "numforecasts": 688,
+ "numforecasts": 689,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
@@ -11310,6 +11561,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 71,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/",
@@ -11392,32 +11658,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n",
- "numforecasts": 203,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/",
@@ -11425,17 +11665,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
+ "numforecasts": 178,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -11444,36 +11684,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.\nSince the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. \nThis question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.\nTo qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-16: the sentence \"The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts\" was changed to \"The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 232,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/",
@@ -11556,21 +11766,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2033-01-02T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 248,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/",
@@ -11623,47 +11818,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.\nIn contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.\nQuestion Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:\n1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) \n2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) \n3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) \n4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. \nResolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030.\nSpecifics and Caveats:\n1-- \nMulti-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. \n2-- \nFor text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.\n3-- \nFor image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.\n4-- \nIf [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/",
@@ -11735,6 +11889,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/",
@@ -11761,21 +11941,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).\nSince beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.\nWhen will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.\nResolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.\nIf this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2032\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/",
@@ -11791,21 +11956,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/",
@@ -11851,21 +12001,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/",
@@ -11907,32 +12042,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/",
@@ -12030,6 +12139,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-22T03:35:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computation and Language e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computation and Language e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 179,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:10:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:10:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/",
@@ -12045,6 +12169,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-29T21:53:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 176,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/",
@@ -12071,36 +12210,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computation and Language e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computation and Language e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:10:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/",
@@ -12232,6 +12341,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n",
+ "numforecasts": 63,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:24:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-10T22:24:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. \nIn recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the \"[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/).\" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.\nTo add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). \nHow much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were \"very achievable.\"\nWhen will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?\nThis question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 211,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-04-21T22:25:13Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1045/when-will-4-year-old-russian-chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-reach-master-level/",
@@ -12273,6 +12412,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 251,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/",
@@ -12340,6 +12505,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-04-15T17:15:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 149,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/",
@@ -12381,6 +12572,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-02T00:48:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.67,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 123,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/",
@@ -12426,6 +12643,66 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 303,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 237,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T10:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?\nThe question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 157,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/",
@@ -12443,7 +12720,7 @@
}
],
"description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n",
- "numforecasts": 433,
+ "numforecasts": 436,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
@@ -12453,18 +12730,70 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/",
+ "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:24:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-10T22:24:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 228,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 123,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-02T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-16T07:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -12482,6 +12811,32 @@
"resolve_time": "3000-12-31T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.74,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.26,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Metaculus exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/",
@@ -12508,6 +12863,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing this question, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the S&P500 modifies its sector definition substantially. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if after such a modification, either:\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of either the IT or Communications sectors by market cap that were previously in either sector are removed\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of of either the IT or Communications sectors that were previously not in either sector are added\n",
+ "numforecasts": 256,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the UK hold its next general election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/",
@@ -12523,6 +12893,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-08T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
@@ -12539,18 +12924,33 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/",
+ "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. \nIn recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the \"[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/).\" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.\nTo add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). \nHow much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were \"very achievable.\"\nWhen will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?\nThis question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.\n",
- "numforecasts": 211,
+ "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 159,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-04-21T22:25:13Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-11-20T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 80,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -12611,7 +13011,7 @@
}
],
"description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 229,
+ "numforecasts": 230,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -12620,13 +13020,28 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.\nThe UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).\nIf, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?\nJudgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).\nSee also:\n---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 163,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many of the \"priority paths\" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
+ "numforecasts": 34,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
@@ -12661,6 +13076,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:01:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nIn 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.\nWhen will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 56,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/",
@@ -12702,21 +13132,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-29T19:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-23T19:51:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/",
@@ -12747,6 +13162,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.54,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 575,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/",
@@ -12788,6 +13229,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.06,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.94,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a \"the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years.\" The research suggests that \"the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.\" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.\nGiven that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:\nWill any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?\nThis question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 865,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-10-13T22:11:35Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-03-23T22:59:59Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.\nWhat will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?\nIf [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 117,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-30T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/",
@@ -12859,6 +13356,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-03-28T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 189,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T22:18:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-12-14T22:18:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/",
@@ -12885,32 +13397,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-06-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n",
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6388/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-april/",
@@ -12947,7 +13433,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what longitude will it start in?\nLongitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180°W and 180 representing 180°E. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the longitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the longitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with latitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
+ "numforecasts": 95,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
@@ -12971,32 +13457,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the first baby be born away from Earth?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/",
@@ -13068,6 +13528,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 144,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 102,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/",
@@ -13120,6 +13621,58 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 158,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 236,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/",
@@ -13127,17 +13680,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 232,
+ "numforecasts": 233,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z",
@@ -13146,6 +13699,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2021-06-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 216,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/",
@@ -13228,6 +13796,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/",
@@ -13258,6 +13841,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5774/net-bids-in-fcc-auction-107/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [C-band](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)) is radio waves of frequencies roughly from 3.7 to 8.0 gigahertz. In recent years, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has moved to clear C-band spectrum for 5G usage, transitioning those airwaves from their current use by communication satellites, to 5G cellular networks [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wireless/fcc-adopts-rules-to-auction-spectrum-for-5g-backs-9-7-billion-in-satellite-payments-idUSKCN20M2L9) [[2]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)#C-Band_Alliance). The FCC will have a [spectrum auction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectrum_auction) scheduled to start on December 8, 2020 (Auction 107), to auction off rights to transmit signals in the 3.7 – 3.98 GHz band. \nSome significant past auctions were \"Auction 73: 700 MHz Band\" in 2008 for a transition from analog TV broadcasting to digital broadcasting, with $19.6 billion in winning bids for 62 megahertz of spectrum, and \"Auction 103: Spectrum Frontiers – Upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz\" in 2020 Q1, with $7.6 billion in net bids for 3400 megahertz of millimeter-wave spectrum. \"Auction 107: 3.7 GHz Service\" will have 280 megahertz of spectrum for auction.\nNote that while some news articles report the net proceeds for a particular auction, this questions asks for the net bids (the statistics have the relation: net proceeds = net bids - incentive payments for existing licensees). The incentive payments for Auction 107 are [up to $15 billion](https://spacenews.com/fcc-sets-december-c-band-auction-offers-up-to-14-7-billion-for-satellite-operators/).\nWhat will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?\nResolution is by an FCC [news release](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-363000A1.pdf) or [public notice](https://www.fcc.gov/auction/103/releases) of the net bids of Auction 107.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 117,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 227,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/",
@@ -13279,7 +13903,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n",
- "numforecasts": 134,
+ "numforecasts": 135,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -13318,13 +13942,43 @@
"resolve_time": "2074-12-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.\nFast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.\nThe question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?\nResolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 82,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-29T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-10-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 164,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 218,
+ "numforecasts": 222,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
@@ -13374,6 +14028,77 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. \nWhen will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? \nAutopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be \"at fault\" or not (as this may ambiguous.)\nNote: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 246,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-04-12T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-10-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.33,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 146,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3428/philpapers-survey-mini-series-consciousness-of-future-ai-systems/",
@@ -13482,6 +14207,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.\nLast year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.\n[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .\nAccording to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.\nThe reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.\nFreedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.\nWhat will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 153,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-10-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-01T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/",
@@ -13524,29 +14290,63 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/",
+ "title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. \nHeavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.\nUnunennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.\nWhen will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?\nResolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nFor example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.\n[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. \nRobert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:\n“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.\" \nPeak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. \nDuring periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). \nWhat will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nQuestion resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:05:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:06:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). \nHow many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 89,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T01:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-02-20T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -13579,6 +14379,92 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-07-01T03:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.\nWhile there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.\nBut while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:\nWhen will the world have reached peak Facebook?\nFor the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-10-08T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-10-08T10:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3541/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 173,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?\nWhile seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.\nDefine an emigration crisis as:\n---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. \nWhen will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?\nTo operationalize this further, \n--- \nFor something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.\n--- \nIf >50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. \nWe ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.\nOn the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with >50 predictions, is in the past:\nWith 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. \nWith a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.\nWith 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.\nIf the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to >December 31st, 2030.\nThe question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. \nAll times in American Eastern Time. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-27T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-09-21T13:02:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?\nThis question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).\nIf Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.\nNote that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).\nThis is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 102,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-30T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-11-02T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/",
@@ -13605,6 +14491,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.\nIn 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be \"very strong\" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. \nIf Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?\nIf no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 33,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/",
@@ -13631,6 +14532,21 @@
"resolve_time": "3000-11-30T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 67,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
@@ -13683,6 +14599,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 39,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/",
@@ -13698,6 +14629,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for May 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 177,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-16T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 234,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/",
@@ -13724,6 +14685,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.14,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.86,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 218,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/",
@@ -13741,7 +14728,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 125,
+ "numforecasts": 126,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
@@ -13750,6 +14737,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.23,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.77,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \nThis question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n1-- \nComcast\n2-- \nCharter\n3-- \nAT&T\n4-- \nVerizon\n5-- \nCentury Link\n(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 135,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/",
@@ -13843,6 +14856,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 91,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-07-18T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/",
@@ -13870,18 +14898,55 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/",
+ "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n",
- "numforecasts": 303,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.71,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 49,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.38,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.62,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 301,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -13899,6 +14964,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2300-12-31T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/",
@@ -13914,13 +14994,43 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.\nCurrently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).\nOn January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? \nThis question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 69,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 226,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.\nWhat will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?\nThe number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 182,
+ "numforecasts": 184,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
@@ -13929,6 +15039,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.\nWith much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).\nSometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:\nWhen will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?\nWe want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 119,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-02-21T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-10-15T20:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2250-10-15T20:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 219,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-04T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/",
@@ -13955,6 +15095,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 251,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/",
@@ -13972,7 +15138,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
- "numforecasts": 365,
+ "numforecasts": 366,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
@@ -13982,18 +15148,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/",
+ "title": "When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
+ "description": "IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.\n[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.\nWhen will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?\nResolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 60,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-02T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T15:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T15:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -14026,21 +15192,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
- "numforecasts": 237,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T10:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/",
@@ -14056,6 +15207,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-06-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 67,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/",
@@ -14063,17 +15255,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 277,
+ "numforecasts": 280,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z",
@@ -14082,6 +15274,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/",
@@ -14358,6 +15576,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 49,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/",
@@ -14373,6 +15617,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nThis question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 122,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/",
@@ -14399,6 +15658,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2032-11-05T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 108,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/",
@@ -14451,6 +15725,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.\nReduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. \nWhat will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?\nResolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 52,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/",
@@ -14518,6 +15807,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nWhen will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-13T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T02:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\nWill the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?\nThis will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 165,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-06-27T10:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:30:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). \nResearch suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). \nHowever, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). \nThe limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. \nHowever, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. \nPositive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-24T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first human be born on another world?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/",
@@ -14533,6 +15878,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2500-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 42,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/",
@@ -14576,7 +15962,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 649,
+ "numforecasts": 651,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
@@ -14617,7 +16003,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
+ "numforecasts": 49,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -14626,6 +16012,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-11-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 153,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 98,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/",
@@ -14694,18 +16121,33 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/",
+ "title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?\nThe question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
+ "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757\nIf the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 31,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) \n[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)\nWhen will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?\nResolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 121,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-02-03T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -14723,6 +16165,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2042-12-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/",
@@ -14764,6 +16221,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-12-31T06:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 570,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. \nIn this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:\nAverage weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. \nFor historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).\nResolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.\nThis question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 128,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/",
@@ -14796,7 +16294,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n",
- "numforecasts": 235,
+ "numforecasts": 237,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
@@ -14805,6 +16303,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. \nOn 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.\nOn 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.\nIndia plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.\nThat’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.\nPart of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:\nWhen will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?\nFor the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 174,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/",
@@ -14835,6 +16348,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 127,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/",
@@ -14876,6 +16404,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.22,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.78,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/",
@@ -14947,6 +16516,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.45,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 46,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. \nIn 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.\n[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).\nThis question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.\nAs reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? \nLinear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 373,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-08-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-07-18T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4596/what-will-the-percentage-difference-between-full-time-tenure-track-and-non-tenure-track-employment-in-us-baccalaureate-institutions-be-in-the-2020-2021-school-year/",
@@ -14963,18 +16573,44 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/",
+ "title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.38,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.62,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).\nOver the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.\nHow many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?\nResolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-21T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -15009,7 +16645,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
+ "numforecasts": 158,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -15018,32 +16654,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
- "numforecasts": 228,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/",
@@ -15051,17 +16661,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 193,
+ "numforecasts": 195,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -15128,7 +16738,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
+ "numforecasts": 230,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -15137,6 +16747,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 181,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/",
@@ -15152,32 +16777,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-16T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/",
@@ -15193,6 +16792,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.66,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/",
@@ -15249,6 +16874,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-08-01T07:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.98,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 142,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/",
@@ -15264,6 +16915,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 109,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/",
@@ -15305,6 +16971,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-03-30T07:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWhat is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. \nA single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\nIn case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nThis question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-09T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-07-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2027-02-20T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/",
@@ -15379,17 +17060,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
+ "numforecasts": 182,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
@@ -15428,6 +17109,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the commercial real estate vacancy rate be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4720/what-will-the-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-rate-be-in-q1-of-2021-in-the-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May.\nAs of mid-May, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. \nLast month the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a recent [National Association of Realtors survey](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q1 of 2021, in the US? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 184,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-29T21:19:40Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6769/cumulative-two-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/",
@@ -15577,6 +17273,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-12-29T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.\nAn [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. \nThe admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.\nThe AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 77,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/",
@@ -15592,32 +17303,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
@@ -15706,7 +17391,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
+ "numforecasts": 63,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -15756,21 +17441,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-11-06T06:28:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing this question, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the S&P500 modifies its sector definition substantially. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if after such a modification, either:\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of either the IT or Communications sectors by market cap that were previously in either sector are removed\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of of either the IT or Communications sectors that were previously not in either sector are added\n",
- "numforecasts": 256,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/",
@@ -15786,6 +17456,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: \nGovernments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.\nThe annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.\nAccording to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:\n---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \nHow much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are <25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.\nData\nWorld Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 105,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T02:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/",
@@ -15941,7 +17626,7 @@
}
],
"description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 162,
+ "numforecasts": 164,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
@@ -15967,7 +17652,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
+ "numforecasts": 49,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z",
@@ -15976,21 +17661,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/",
@@ -16032,6 +17702,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-15T17:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).\nHowever, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).\nSome futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.\nThis question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?\nThis question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.\nThe resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.\n\"Humanity\" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.\nRelated Questions:\n---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "6999-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/",
@@ -16058,36 +17743,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n",
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/",
@@ -16259,6 +17914,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:01:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/",
@@ -16371,21 +18041,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T20:12:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.\nThe UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).\nIf, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?\nJudgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).\nSee also:\n---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4036/what-will-chinas-unemployment-rate-be-for-q1-2021/",
@@ -16524,21 +18179,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nIn 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.\nWhen will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/",
@@ -16571,7 +18211,7 @@
}
],
"description": "According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.\nTherefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.\nAt any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.\n",
- "numforecasts": 221,
+ "numforecasts": 222,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z",
@@ -16595,32 +18235,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-31T22:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n",
- "numforecasts": 568,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/",
@@ -16718,6 +18332,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-13T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 72,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/",
@@ -16744,32 +18384,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a \"the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years.\" The research suggests that \"the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.\" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.\nGiven that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:\nWill any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?\nThis question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 865,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-13T22:11:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-23T22:59:59Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/",
@@ -16786,18 +18400,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/",
+ "title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.\nWhat will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?\nIf [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
+ "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 149,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -16944,7 +18558,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n",
- "numforecasts": 585,
+ "numforecasts": 586,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-03-29T20:50:00Z",
@@ -16968,21 +18582,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/",
@@ -17182,18 +18781,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 189,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.69,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 226,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T22:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-14T22:18:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -17211,6 +18821,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:54:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L3 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L3 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L3 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 181,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/",
@@ -17267,6 +18892,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2201-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.71,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 91,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 59,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-02-05T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T09:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/",
@@ -17282,6 +18963,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-06-22T05:51:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-23T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/",
@@ -17324,44 +19020,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n",
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/",
+ "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n",
- "numforecasts": 102,
+ "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -17431,13 +19101,28 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy. \nEurope is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390).\nGrowth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020. \nProjections have [historically underestimated](http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur) estimate actual growth, however. The prices of PV energy continues to fall (see related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/321/1-dollarwatt-solar-energy-by-2020/)) and projection methodologies may in some cases fail to capture factors such as transformative technologies that may further drive PV growth.\nHow much global solar photovoltaic electricity-generating capacity, in gigawatts, will be in operation by 2020?\nThe definitive source for question resolution will be the annual \"[Trends](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3)\" report from the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org)'s [Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme](https://www.iea.org/tcp/renewables/pvps/). Because the report covers trends up to the year previous, resolution will be dependent on the report to be issued in late 2021. If this report should cease publication or substantially change its methodology, question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 196,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-03-27T16:54:11Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
+ "numforecasts": 55,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
@@ -17513,6 +19198,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:01:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 131,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/",
@@ -17528,6 +19239,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-03-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIf the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?\nThis resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.\nSee also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 71,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\nAdditional details: \n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 111,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-05-12T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-04-25T04:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/",
@@ -17554,6 +19295,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.\nThe [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.\nIn 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into \"intrinsic rewards\" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with \"intrinsic rewards\" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without \"intrinsic rewards\" only explored 2 out of 24.\nIn Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [\"artificial curiosity\"](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). \nWe ask:\nWhen will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?\nAs of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) & [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). \nResolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 158,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-08-16T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. \nWhat global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?\nWe'll add these all up to ask:\nWhat percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? \nResolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 179,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-10-20T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-03-01T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-03-01T09:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/",
@@ -17653,7 +19424,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 217,
+ "numforecasts": 218,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
@@ -17677,6 +19448,103 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-04-02T22:14:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 200,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-11-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-04-16T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.58,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. \nHow many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 108,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-18T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part II",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/",
@@ -17729,6 +19597,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-06-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 51,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/",
@@ -17744,6 +19627,77 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 124,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 122,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 43,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).\nTo shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:\nWhat will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?\nResolution\n--- \nThis question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.\n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n--- \nTo be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 87,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2053-01-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Solar Cycle 25 begin?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5042/when-will-solar-cycle-25-begin/",
@@ -17759,6 +19713,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:21:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.72,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.28,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/",
@@ -17800,6 +19780,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2048-12-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.23,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.77,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 261,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5225/relaxation-of-maximum-group-size-in-england/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. [This government webpage](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing#seeing-friends-and-family) gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.\nThe Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for [\"any longer than we have to\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54102872). But how long will this be?\nThat is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?\nThe question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.\nThe question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 323,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. \n[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated Questions:\n[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 60,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/",
@@ -17826,6 +19862,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 204,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-12-31T23:43:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T23:44:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3426/philpapers-survey-mini-series-the-many-worlds-interpretation-of-quantum-mechanics/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nBackground\nThe many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"many-worlds\" on the \"Quantum mechanics\" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-24T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-08-01T02:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-08-01T02:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/",
@@ -17867,6 +19959,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-02-20T01:01:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.37,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.63,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 275,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/",
@@ -17893,6 +20011,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.88,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 223,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/",
@@ -17908,6 +20052,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2101-10-10T09:10:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).\nA commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).\nWhen will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"available from a grocery store\" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 126,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-06-01T04:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.77,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 107,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/",
@@ -17934,6 +20119,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T13:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 163,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first human head transplant occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/",
@@ -17975,6 +20201,148 @@
"resolve_time": "2039-03-02T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 234,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 351,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 255,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-10-31T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 38,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 158,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-11-16T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nIf GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. \nA similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-06T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-02-12T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/",
@@ -18016,6 +20384,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3435/philpapers-survey-mini-series-immortality-would-philosophers-choose-it/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on choosing immortality?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on:\nImmortality would you choose it?\nThis question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 109,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/",
@@ -18042,6 +20425,58 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 347,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.97,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/",
@@ -18058,55 +20493,70 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/",
+ "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?\nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. \nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/",
+ "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 236,
+ "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 136,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.66,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 179,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -18247,6 +20697,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-11-30T23:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), \nOne could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.\nFurthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).\nIf Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. \nFor example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?\nThe relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.\nReal world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.\nETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/",
@@ -18277,6 +20742,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:11:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).\nFrom its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. \nThis question asks in which month will there first be >=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).\nShould the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.\nIf the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.\nIf this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2035\"\n",
+ "numforecasts": 109,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-12T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/",
@@ -18330,18 +20810,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/",
+ "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2021-06-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 216,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 167,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -18370,6 +20861,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-02-27T13:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 240,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/",
@@ -18467,6 +20984,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4459/when-will-the-first-genome-wide-association-study-of-more-than-1-million-african-americans-be-published/",
@@ -18497,6 +21029,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-12-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.21,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.79,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n",
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the 10,000th human reach space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/",
@@ -18538,6 +21096,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-10-25T10:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 106,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/",
@@ -18605,6 +21178,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2036-06-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T20:16:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/",
@@ -18650,21 +21249,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2032-01-01T06:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/",
@@ -18763,44 +21347,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5774/net-bids-in-fcc-auction-107/",
+ "title": "How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The [C-band](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)) is radio waves of frequencies roughly from 3.7 to 8.0 gigahertz. In recent years, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has moved to clear C-band spectrum for 5G usage, transitioning those airwaves from their current use by communication satellites, to 5G cellular networks [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wireless/fcc-adopts-rules-to-auction-spectrum-for-5g-backs-9-7-billion-in-satellite-payments-idUSKCN20M2L9) [[2]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)#C-Band_Alliance). The FCC will have a [spectrum auction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectrum_auction) scheduled to start on December 8, 2020 (Auction 107), to auction off rights to transmit signals in the 3.7 – 3.98 GHz band. \nSome significant past auctions were \"Auction 73: 700 MHz Band\" in 2008 for a transition from analog TV broadcasting to digital broadcasting, with $19.6 billion in winning bids for 62 megahertz of spectrum, and \"Auction 103: Spectrum Frontiers – Upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz\" in 2020 Q1, with $7.6 billion in net bids for 3400 megahertz of millimeter-wave spectrum. \"Auction 107: 3.7 GHz Service\" will have 280 megahertz of spectrum for auction.\nNote that while some news articles report the net proceeds for a particular auction, this questions asks for the net bids (the statistics have the relation: net proceeds = net bids - incentive payments for existing licensees). The incentive payments for Auction 107 are [up to $15 billion](https://spacenews.com/fcc-sets-december-c-band-auction-offers-up-to-14-7-billion-for-satellite-operators/).\nWhat will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?\nResolution is by an FCC [news release](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-363000A1.pdf) or [public notice](https://www.fcc.gov/auction/103/releases) of the net bids of Auction 107.\n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
+ "description": "[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.\nFurthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.\nThere are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. \nThough direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.\n\nHow far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?\n\n---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n",
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-04-27T21:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -18829,21 +21387,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.\nFast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.\nThe question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?\nResolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/",
@@ -18896,28 +21439,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
+ "numforecasts": 43,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z",
@@ -18957,33 +21485,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/",
+ "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. \nWhen will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? \nAutopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be \"at fault\" or not (as this may ambiguous.)\nNote: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.\n",
- "numforecasts": 246,
+ "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 89,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-12T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -19053,6 +21566,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.\n[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.\nHow many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 161,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-27T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/",
@@ -19060,17 +21588,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 600,
+ "numforecasts": 601,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
@@ -19079,47 +21607,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/",
@@ -19137,7 +21624,7 @@
}
],
"description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n",
- "numforecasts": 373,
+ "numforecasts": 374,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
@@ -19179,17 +21666,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\nIf the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive. If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative. If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution. \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
+ "numforecasts": 198,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z",
@@ -19198,6 +21685,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 1139,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4078/what-will-the-size-of-singapores-total-foreign-workforce-be-for-the-first-month-after-2020-12-01-for-which-data-is-published/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019.\nSingapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies.\nSingapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/)\nThis question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?\nThis question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.\nIf no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 140,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-08T18:22:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-08T17:22:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/",
@@ -19254,6 +21782,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-03-31T19:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 221,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 190,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will space mining be profitable?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.\nThis being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.\nWhen will a space mining company report a profit?\n---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). \n---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. \n---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. \n---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 84,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-26T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2151-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2201-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/",
@@ -19310,6 +21894,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2070-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.\nQuestion: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?\nResolution details:\n---Only humans in the observable universe count. \n---\"Humans\" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 143,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2345-01-21T05:07:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.64,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.36,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 106,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/",
@@ -19351,92 +21976,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2052-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.\nLast year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.\n[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .\nAccording to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.\nThe reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.\nFreedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.\nWhat will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. \nHeavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.\nUnunennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.\nWhen will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?\nResolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nFor example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.\n[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. \nRobert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:\n“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.\" \nPeak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. \nDuring periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). \nWhat will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nQuestion resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:06:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). \nHow many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T01:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-20T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5744/date-when-150m-in-us-vaccinated-from-covid-19/",
@@ -19478,21 +22017,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2199-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/",
@@ -19534,51 +22058,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.\nWhile there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.\nBut while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:\nWhen will the world have reached peak Facebook?\nFor the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-08T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-10-08T10:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3541/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?\nWhile seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.\nDefine an emigration crisis as:\n---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. \nWhen will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?\nTo operationalize this further, \n--- \nFor something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.\n--- \nIf >50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. \nWe ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.\nOn the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with >50 predictions, is in the past:\nWith 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. \nWith a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.\nWith 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.\nIf the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to >December 31st, 2030.\nThe question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. \nAll times in American Eastern Time. \n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-09-21T13:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/",
@@ -19609,32 +22088,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/",
@@ -19661,21 +22114,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2520-06-12T19:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?\nThis question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).\nIf Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.\nNote that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).\nThis is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).\n",
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/",
@@ -19717,21 +22155,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.\nIn 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be \"very strong\" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. \nIf Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?\nIf no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/",
@@ -19758,21 +22181,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2032-03-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
@@ -19788,51 +22196,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for May 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-16T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/",
@@ -19859,32 +22222,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n",
- "numforecasts": 218,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/",
@@ -19900,47 +22237,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2042-06-19T21:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \nThis question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n1-- \nComcast\n2-- \nCharter\n3-- \nAT&T\n4-- \nVerizon\n5-- \nCentury Link\n(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)\n",
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/",
@@ -19956,58 +22252,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 301,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/",
@@ -20112,21 +22356,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/",
@@ -20153,51 +22382,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.\nCurrently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).\nOn January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? \nThis question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.\nWith much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).\nSometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:\nWhen will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?\nWe want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.\n",
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-15T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2250-10-15T20:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2572/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-able-to-cover-an-unexpected-400-expense-without-selling-something-or-borrowing-money-in-2020/",
@@ -20213,21 +22397,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
- "numforecasts": 219,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/",
@@ -20258,32 +22427,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/",
@@ -20299,21 +22442,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-01-03T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.\n[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.\nWhen will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?\nResolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T15:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/",
@@ -20422,6 +22550,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 170,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/",
@@ -20448,21 +22591,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-12-31T16:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/",
@@ -20504,32 +22632,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/",
@@ -20556,47 +22658,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will we have a new Pope?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/",
@@ -20737,7 +22798,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n",
- "numforecasts": 5108,
+ "numforecasts": 5109,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z",
@@ -20762,44 +22823,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
+ "title": "Will Catalonia become an independent state?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nWill Catalonia will be an independent state within 5 years of this vote? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 408,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -20843,21 +22889,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nThis question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3237/what-will-the-average-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-over-the-2020-2021-period/",
@@ -20899,51 +22930,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.\nReduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. \nWhat will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?\nResolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nWhen will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/",
@@ -20959,32 +22945,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\nWill the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?\nThis will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-27T10:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:30:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/",
@@ -21011,62 +22971,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-04-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). \nResearch suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). \nHowever, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). \nThe limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. \nHowever, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. \nPositive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-24T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/",
@@ -21082,32 +22986,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2099-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/",
@@ -21134,163 +23012,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757\nIf the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) \n[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)\nWhen will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?\nResolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 570,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. \nIn this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:\nAverage weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. \nFor historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).\nResolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.\nThis question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. \nOn 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.\nOn 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.\nIndia plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.\nThat’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.\nPart of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:\nWhen will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?\nFor the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/",
@@ -21358,47 +23079,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/",
@@ -21440,32 +23120,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-12-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/",
@@ -21522,62 +23176,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. \nIn 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.\n[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).\nThis question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.\nAs reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? \nLinear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.\n",
- "numforecasts": 373,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).\nOver the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.\nHow many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?\nResolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
@@ -21593,6 +23191,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/",
@@ -21623,21 +23247,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n",
- "numforecasts": 181,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/",
@@ -21653,58 +23262,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-02T01:01:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n",
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "At what point will at least ten technologies listed on \"The Rejuvenation Roadmap\" be released to the public?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/",
@@ -21720,36 +23277,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWhat is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. \nA single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\nIn case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nThis question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-07-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-02-20T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/",
@@ -21821,21 +23348,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the commercial real estate vacancy rate be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4720/what-will-the-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-rate-be-in-q1-of-2021-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May.\nAs of mid-May, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. \nLast month the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a recent [National Association of Realtors survey](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q1 of 2021, in the US? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n",
- "numforecasts": 184,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-29T21:19:40Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/",
@@ -21933,21 +23445,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.\nAn [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. \nThe admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.\nThe AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/",
@@ -21989,21 +23486,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-12T18:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: \nGovernments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.\nThe annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.\nAccording to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:\n---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \nHow much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are <25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.\nData\nWorld Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T02:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/",
@@ -22056,36 +23538,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).\nHowever, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).\nSome futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.\nThis question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?\nThis question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.\nThe resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.\n\"Humanity\" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.\nRelated Questions:\n---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "6999-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/",
@@ -22168,21 +23620,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 269,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/",
@@ -22224,73 +23661,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/",
@@ -22317,62 +23687,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L3 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L3 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L3 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 181,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/",
@@ -22399,43 +23713,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-02-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T09:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n",
- "numforecasts": 232,
+ "numforecasts": 233,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -22444,62 +23728,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy. \nEurope is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390).\nGrowth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020. \nProjections have [historically underestimated](http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur) estimate actual growth, however. The prices of PV energy continues to fall (see related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/321/1-dollarwatt-solar-energy-by-2020/)) and projection methodologies may in some cases fail to capture factors such as transformative technologies that may further drive PV growth.\nHow much global solar photovoltaic electricity-generating capacity, in gigawatts, will be in operation by 2020?\nThe definitive source for question resolution will be the annual \"[Trends](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3)\" report from the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org)'s [Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme](https://www.iea.org/tcp/renewables/pvps/). Because the report covers trends up to the year previous, resolution will be dependent on the report to be issued in late 2021. If this report should cease publication or substantially change its methodology, question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-03-27T16:54:11Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n",
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/",
@@ -22515,36 +23743,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIf the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?\nThis resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.\nSee also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\nAdditional details: \n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.\n",
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-04-25T04:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/",
@@ -22560,51 +23758,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-11-01T10:06:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.\nThe [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.\nIn 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into \"intrinsic rewards\" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with \"intrinsic rewards\" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without \"intrinsic rewards\" only explored 2 out of 24.\nIn Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [\"artificial curiosity\"](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). \nWe ask:\nWhen will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?\nAs of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) & [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). \nResolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. \nWhat global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?\nWe'll add these all up to ask:\nWhat percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? \nResolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-03-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-03-01T09:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 199,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100th-apollo-11-anniversary/",
@@ -22631,21 +23784,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2069-07-21T01:56:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/",
@@ -22698,73 +23836,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-04-16T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. \nHow many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4711/how-many-total-games-will-be-played-in-the-nfls-2020-2021-regular-season/",
@@ -22832,21 +23903,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the next human being walk on the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/",
@@ -22862,47 +23918,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-02-14T21:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/",
@@ -22970,62 +23985,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).\nTo shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:\nWhat will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?\nResolution\n--- \nThis question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.\n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n--- \nTo be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.\n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2053-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/",
@@ -23067,185 +24026,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 261,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5225/relaxation-of-maximum-group-size-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. [This government webpage](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing#seeing-friends-and-family) gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.\nThe Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for [\"any longer than we have to\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54102872). But how long will this be?\nThat is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?\nThe question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.\nThe question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings. \n",
- "numforecasts": 323,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. \n[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated Questions:\n[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T23:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T23:44:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3426/philpapers-survey-mini-series-the-many-worlds-interpretation-of-quantum-mechanics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nBackground\nThe many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"many-worlds\" on the \"Quantum mechanics\" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-24T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-01T02:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 275,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n",
- "numforecasts": 223,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).\nA commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).\nWhen will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"available from a grocery store\" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T04:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/",
@@ -23291,155 +24071,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n",
- "numforecasts": 351,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/208/to-the-stars-1-will-the-private-investment-in-laser-sail-extra-solar-travel-be-matched-by-a-comparable-amount-within-5-years/",
@@ -23466,36 +24097,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-04-15T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-16T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nIf GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. \nA similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-02-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/",
@@ -23537,51 +24138,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:34:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3435/philpapers-survey-mini-series-immortality-would-philosophers-choose-it/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on choosing immortality?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on:\nImmortality would you choose it?\nThis question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/",
@@ -23623,32 +24179,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n",
- "numforecasts": 347,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/",
@@ -23675,32 +24205,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/",
@@ -23717,70 +24221,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
+ "title": "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?\nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. \nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
+ "description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -23850,36 +24302,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-02-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), \nOne could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.\nFurthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).\nIf Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. \nFor example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?\nThe relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.\nReal world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.\nETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).\nFrom its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. \nThis question asks in which month will there first be >=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).\nShould the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.\nIf the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.\nIf this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2035\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/",
@@ -23906,155 +24328,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-06-14T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 240,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T20:16:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.\nFurthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.\nThere are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. \nThough direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.\n\nHow far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?\n\n---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. \n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-27T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/",
@@ -24070,21 +24343,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/",
@@ -24152,62 +24410,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2037-01-02T02:25:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.\n[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.\nHow many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1139,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4078/what-will-the-size-of-singapores-total-foreign-workforce-be-for-the-first-month-after-2020-12-01-for-which-data-is-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019.\nSingapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies.\nSingapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/)\nThis question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?\nThis question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.\nIf no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-08T18:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-08T17:22:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/",
@@ -24260,62 +24462,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T07:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 221,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n",
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will space mining be profitable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.\nThis being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.\nWhen will a space mining company report a profit?\n---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). \n---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. \n---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. \n---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2151-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2201-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/",
@@ -24342,47 +24488,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.\nQuestion: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?\nResolution details:\n---Only humans in the observable universe count. \n---\"Humans\" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2345-01-21T05:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n",
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/",
@@ -24409,73 +24514,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Catalonia become an independent state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nWill Catalonia will be an independent state within 5 years of this vote? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n",
- "numforecasts": 408,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/",
@@ -24517,21 +24555,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T16:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T21:43:55.448000Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/",
@@ -24547,36 +24570,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-06-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next interstellar object be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \">12/31/30.\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-08T04:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/",
@@ -24603,6 +24596,170 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-02-10T00:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 137,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T16:35:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T21:43:55.448000Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 571,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.04,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.96,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 402,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2074-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 188,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.97,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n",
+ "numforecasts": 136,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.41,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 427,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.\nIt is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).\nThe global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].\nAs of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.\nWhen will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.\nReports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 84,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the next interstellar object be discovered?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \">12/31/30.\"\n",
+ "numforecasts": 46,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-08T04:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/",
@@ -24644,6 +24801,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 239,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/",
@@ -24685,6 +24868,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.18,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 244,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/",
@@ -24701,29 +24910,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
+ "title": "If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 242,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 114,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -24752,6 +24950,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-02-06T13:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:56:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:56:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/",
@@ -24782,6 +24995,62 @@
"resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 124,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-07-02T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-30T11:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 369,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 227,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/",
@@ -24798,29 +25067,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/",
+ "title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6164/number-of-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n",
- "numforecasts": 571,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 86,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-06T19:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-01-16T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T11:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -24875,6 +25133,36 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 277,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will we have micropayments?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking\nWhere are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?\nand lamenting:\nOf course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.\nI've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just \"micropayments fail over and over.\" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:\nWhen will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?\nThe question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a \"wallet\" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-29T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-03-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/",
@@ -24890,6 +25178,73 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T20:10:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 258,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.21,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.79,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 196,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 200,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved in the next decade?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/",
@@ -24943,29 +25298,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/",
+ "title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n",
- "numforecasts": 402,
+ "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2074-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -24983,6 +25338,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-14T21:18:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 206,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/",
@@ -25016,17 +25397,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
+ "numforecasts": 39,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
@@ -25065,39 +25446,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 150,
+ "numforecasts": 151,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
@@ -25107,29 +25462,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
+ "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 423,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nBut when?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 85,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-27T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -25158,6 +25502,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.34,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 57,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/",
@@ -25174,18 +25544,74 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/",
+ "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.\nIt is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).\nThe global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].\nAs of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.\nWhen will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.\nReports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.\n",
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2020?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2020 US$.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 121,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-29T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.\nThere are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.\nThe landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.\nResolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 128,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-10T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3437/philpapers-survey-mini-series-is-mind-uploading-thought-to-amount-to-death/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nMind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind. \nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):\nA considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their \"biological shell\". \nHowever, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, \"uploading\" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
"numforecasts": 84,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\nPast studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 115,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -25203,6 +25629,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Universe end?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 574,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1532/what-is-the-chandra-x-ray-observatorys-remaining-lifespan/",
@@ -25259,32 +25711,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n",
- "numforecasts": 239,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5126/if-trump-is-not-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/",
@@ -25382,36 +25808,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n",
- "numforecasts": 403,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/",
@@ -25530,7 +25926,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nPlant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk.\nHow much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: almond milk, soy milk, coconut milk, rice milk, oat milk, and other plant-based milks and blends.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $1.6b in 2017, $1.8b in 2018, $1.9b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is substantially different or not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that the estimate is likely the estimate follows an estimation method that is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
+ "numforecasts": 94,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -25565,6 +25961,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-02T06:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 187,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/",
@@ -25606,21 +26028,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:56:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/",
@@ -25771,18 +26178,44 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/",
+ "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
+ "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 127,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-02T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.43,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite))\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 119,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -25811,6 +26244,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a technology replace screens?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n",
+ "numforecasts": 108,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/",
@@ -25841,6 +26289,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2149-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 716,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "A decrease in US meat production by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/",
@@ -26114,44 +26588,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/",
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n",
- "numforecasts": 369,
+ "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 1368,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -26214,21 +26673,6 @@
"resolve_time": "3000-01-01T17:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6164/number-of-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-16T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/",
@@ -26285,21 +26729,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:12:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?\n",
- "numforecasts": 277,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/",
@@ -26326,28 +26755,13 @@
"resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will we have micropayments?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking\nWhere are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?\nand lamenting:\nOf course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.\nI've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just \"micropayments fail over and over.\" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:\nWhen will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?\nThe question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a \"wallet\" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 406,
+ "numforecasts": 407,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
@@ -26386,73 +26800,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-12-27T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n",
- "numforecasts": 258,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n",
- "numforecasts": 200,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
@@ -26565,32 +26912,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/",
@@ -26632,6 +26953,47 @@
"resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-26T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-09-01T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.49,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.51,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 127,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-11-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will India become a World Bank high-income country?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/",
@@ -26648,44 +27010,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what latitude will it start in?\nLatitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-30T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/",
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n",
- "numforecasts": 206,
+ "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 159,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -26694,7 +27041,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 254,
+ "numforecasts": 259,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z",
@@ -26703,32 +27050,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4251/lrt-22-as-of-monday-april-27th-how-many-total-cumulative-sars-cov-2-infections-including-all-symptomatic-subclinical-and-asymptomatic-infections-have-there-been-in-the-us/",
@@ -26785,21 +27106,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nBut when?\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Tunnel vs. Wall",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/tunnel-vs-wall/",
@@ -26924,29 +27230,29 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/",
+ "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
+ "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 118,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -27247,21 +27553,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2023-01-10T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2020?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2020 US$.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5051/what-percentage-of-absentee-ballots-will-be-rejected-in-the-2020-us-election/",
@@ -27277,36 +27568,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.\nThere are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.\nThe landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.\nResolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3437/philpapers-survey-mini-series-is-mind-uploading-thought-to-amount-to-death/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nMind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind. \nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):\nA considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their \"biological shell\". \nHowever, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, \"uploading\" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/",
@@ -27322,6 +27583,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2042-01-02T03:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are \"low-hanging fruit\": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.\nOne way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.\nWhen will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?\n---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. \n---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. \n---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). \n---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. \n---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. \n---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. \n---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. \nETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 60,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-17T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2067-01-02T01:03:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:03:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
@@ -27348,32 +27624,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\nPast studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/",
@@ -27389,21 +27639,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-09-15T04:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male \"pill\") on the US market?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/507/when-will-there-be-a-reversible-male-contraceptive-aka-a-male-pill-on-the-us-market/",
@@ -27561,6 +27796,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2028-11-07T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 214,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will Disneyland reopen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4116/when-will-disneyland-reopen/",
@@ -27617,47 +27867,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Universe end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 574,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/",
@@ -27781,32 +27990,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2125-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n",
- "numforecasts": 187,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/",
@@ -27848,21 +28031,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "When will programs write programs for us?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/",
@@ -27905,96 +28073,18 @@
}
},
{
- "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite))\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a technology replace screens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/",
+ "title": "How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
+ "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n",
- "numforecasts": 716,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1367,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
}
},
{
@@ -28146,6 +28236,21 @@
"resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. \nNational Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) \"the moon-landing of free-soloing\" and reported: \nIt’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.\nIn June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.\nHans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: \"It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”\nPer [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): \nThe Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. \nAccording to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 77,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-12T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-07-07T07:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/",
@@ -28172,47 +28277,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-09-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/",
@@ -28269,32 +28333,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/",
@@ -28310,118 +28348,6 @@
"resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
}
},
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are \"low-hanging fruit\": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.\nOne way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.\nWhen will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?\n---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. \n---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. \n---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). \n---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. \n---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. \n---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. \n---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. \nETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-02T01:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:03:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 214,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. \nNational Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) \"the moon-landing of free-soloing\" and reported: \nIt’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.\nIn June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.\nHans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: \"It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”\nPer [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): \nThe Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. \nAccording to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-07T07:00:00Z"
- }
- },
- {
- "title": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).\nResearchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).\nWill these be popular among at least \"innovators\" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025\nWill 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025\nResolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 237,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-05-13T13:12:46Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2016-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z"
- }
- },
{
"title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/",
@@ -28448,6 +28374,32 @@
"resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
}
},
+ {
+ "title": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).\nResearchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).\nWill these be popular among at least \"innovators\" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025\nWill 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025\nResolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 237,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-05-13T13:12:46Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2016-11-15T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z"
+ }
+ },
{
"title": "When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/",
@@ -28499,7 +28451,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
+ "numforecasts": 174,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.csv b/data/metaforecasts.csv
index df6c315..e75396c 100644
--- a/data/metaforecasts.csv
+++ b/data/metaforecasts.csv
@@ -83,8 +83,8 @@
"How much control do you have over your mind?",,"Yes, No"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",,"Yes, No"
"Trump will win a second term",,"Yes, No"
-"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",,"Yes, No"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",,"Yes, No"
+"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",,"Yes, No"
"Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",,"Yes, No"
"The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it",,"Yes, No"
"Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",,"Yes, No"
@@ -96,314 +96,314 @@
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",,"Yes, No"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",,"Yes, No"
-"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",,"Yes, No"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No"
-"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",,"Yes, No"
-"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",,"Yes, No"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",,"Yes, No"
+"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",,"Yes, No"
+"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",,"Yes, No"
+"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",,"Yes, No"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",,"Yes, No"
+"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",,"Yes, No"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ",,"Yes, No"
-"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",,"Yes, No"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",,"Yes, No"
-"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",,"Yes, No"
-"...be an environmental disaster.",,"Yes, No"
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?",,"Yes, No"
"Trump wins Nobel",,"Yes, No"
-"California will secede from the United States before 2021",,"Yes, No"
+"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",,"Yes, No"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No"
+"...be an environmental disaster.",,"Yes, No"
+"California will secede from the United States before 2021",,"Yes, No"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",,"Yes, No"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",,"Yes, No"
-"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",,"Yes, No"
-"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",,"Yes, No"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",,"Yes, No"
+"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",,"Yes, No"
+"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",,"Yes, No"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",,"Yes, No"
-"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",,"Yes, No"
-"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",,"Yes, No"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",,"Yes, No"
-"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",,"Yes, No"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",,"Yes, No"
-"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",,"Yes, No"
-"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",,"Yes, No"
-"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",,"Yes, No"
-"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",,"Yes, No"
-"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",,"Yes, No"
-"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",,"Yes, No"
+"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",,"Yes, No"
+"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",,"Yes, No"
+"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",,"Yes, No"
"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",,"Yes, No"
+"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",,"Yes, No"
+"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",,"Yes, No"
+"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",,"Yes, No"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",,"Yes, No"
+"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",,"Yes, No"
+"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",,"Yes, No"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",,"Yes, No"
-"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",,"Yes, No"
+"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",,"Yes, No"
+"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No"
+"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",,"Yes, No"
"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",,"Yes, No"
-"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",,"Yes, No"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",,"Yes, No"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",,"Yes, No"
-"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",,"Yes, No"
+"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",,"Yes, No"
+"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",,"Yes, No"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",,"Yes, No"
-"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",,"Yes, No"
-"Google will survive for 15 more years",,"Yes, No"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",,"Yes, No"
-"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",,"Yes, No"
+"Google will survive for 15 more years",,"Yes, No"
+"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",,"Yes, No"
+"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",,"Yes, No"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",,"Yes, No"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",,"Yes, No"
-"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",,"Yes, No"
-"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",,"Yes, No"
-"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",,"Yes, No"
-"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",,"Yes, No"
-"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",,"Yes, No"
-"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""",,"Yes, No"
-"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",,"Yes, No"
-"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",,"Yes, No"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",,"Yes, No"
-"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",,"Yes, No"
+"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",,"Yes, No"
+"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",,"Yes, No"
+"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",,"Yes, No"
+"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",,"Yes, No"
+"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",,"Yes, No"
+"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""",,"Yes, No"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",,"Yes, No"
-"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",,"Yes, No"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
-"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",,"Yes, No"
-"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",,"Yes, No"
-"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",,"Yes, No"
+"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",,"Yes, No"
+"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",,"Yes, No"
+"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",,"Yes, No"
+"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",,"Yes, No"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",,"Yes, No"
+"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",,"Yes, No"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",,"Yes, No"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",,"Yes, No"
+"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",,"Yes, No"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",,"Yes, No"
+"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",,"Yes, No"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",,"Yes, No"
-"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",,"Yes, No"
-"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",,"Yes, No"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",,"Yes, No"
-"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",,"Yes, No"
-"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",,"Yes, No"
-"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",,"Yes, No"
+"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",,"Yes, No"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",,"Yes, No"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",,"Yes, No"
+"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",,"Yes, No"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",,"Yes, No"
-"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",,"Yes, No"
-"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",,"Yes, No"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",,"Yes, No"
-"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",,"Yes, No"
-"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",,"Yes, No"
-"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",,"Yes, No"
-"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",,"Yes, No"
-"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",,"Yes, No"
+"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",,"Yes, No"
+"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",,"Yes, No"
+"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",,"Yes, No"
+"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",,"Yes, No"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",,"Yes, No"
+"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",,"Yes, No"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",,"Yes, No"
"US presidents term limits abolished",,"Yes, No"
+"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",,"Yes, No"
+"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",,"Yes, No"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",,"Yes, No"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",,"Yes, No"
-"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",,"Yes, No"
-"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",,"Yes, No"
-"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",,"Yes, No"
-"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",,"Yes, No"
-"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",,"Yes, No"
-"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",,"Yes, No"
-"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",,"Yes, No"
+"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",,"Yes, No"
+"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",,"Yes, No"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",,"Yes, No"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",,"Yes, No"
+"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",,"Yes, No"
+"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",,"Yes, No"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",,"Yes, No"
-"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",,"Yes, No"
+"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",,"Yes, No"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",,"Yes, No"
+"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",,"Yes, No"
+"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",,"Yes, No"
+"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",,"Yes, No"
+"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",,"Yes, No"
+"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",,"Yes, No"
+"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",,"Yes, No"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",,"Yes, No"
-"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",,"Yes, No"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",,"Yes, No"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",,"Yes, No"
-"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",,"Yes, No"
+"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",,"Yes, No"
+"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
+"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",,"Yes, No"
+"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
+"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",,"Yes, No"
+"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",,"Yes, No"
+"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",,"Yes, No"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",,"Yes, No"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",,"Yes, No"
-"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
-"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",,"Yes, No"
-"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",,"Yes, No"
+"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",,"Yes, No"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",,"Yes, No"
-"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",,"Yes, No"
-"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",,"Yes, No"
-"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",,"Yes, No"
-"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",,"Yes, No"
-"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",,"Yes, No"
-"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
-"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",,"Yes, No"
-"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
+"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",,"Yes, No"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",,"Yes, No"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",,"Yes, No"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",,"Yes, No"
-"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",,"Yes, No"
-"Humanity still a thing in 2036",,"Yes, No"
+"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",,"Yes, No"
+"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
+"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",,"Yes, No"
+"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",,"Yes, No"
+"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",,"Yes, No"
+"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",,"Yes, No"
+"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",,"Yes, No"
+"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",,"Yes, No"
+"ETI is AGI",,"Yes, No"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",,"Yes, No"
+"Humanity still a thing in 2036",,"Yes, No"
+"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",,"Yes, No"
+"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",,"Yes, No"
+"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",,"Yes, No"
+"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",,"Yes, No"
+"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",,"Yes, No"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",,"Yes, No"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",,"Yes, No"
-"ETI is AGI",,"Yes, No"
-"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",,"Yes, No"
-"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",,"Yes, No"
-"10 million",,"Yes, No"
-"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",,"Yes, No"
+"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",,"Yes, No"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",,"Yes, No"
-"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",,"Yes, No"
-"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",,"Yes, No"
-"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",,"Yes, No"
-"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",,"Yes, No"
-"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",,"Yes, No"
-"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
-"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",,"Yes, No"
-"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",,"Yes, No"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",,"Yes, No"
+"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",,"Yes, No"
+"10 million",,"Yes, No"
+"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",,"Yes, No"
+"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",,"Yes, No"
+"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
+"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",,"Yes, No"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",,"Yes, No"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",,"Yes, No"
+"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",,"Yes, No"
-"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",,"Yes, No"
-"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",,"Yes, No"
-"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",,"Yes, No"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",,"Yes, No"
-"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",,"Yes, No"
-"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",,"Yes, No"
-"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",,"Yes, No"
-"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",,"Yes, No"
-"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",,"Yes, No"
-"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",,"Yes, No"
-"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",,"Yes, No"
-"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",,"Yes, No"
-"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",,"Yes, No"
-"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",,"Yes, No"
+"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",,"Yes, No"
+"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",,"Yes, No"
+"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",,"Yes, No"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",,"Yes, No"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",,"Yes, No"
+"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",,"Yes, No"
+"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",,"Yes, No"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",,"Yes, No"
-"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",,"Yes, No"
-"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",,"Yes, No"
-"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",,"Yes, No"
-"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",,"Yes, No"
+"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",,"Yes, No"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
-"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",,"Yes, No"
-"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",,"Yes, No"
-"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",,"Yes, No"
-"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",,"Yes, No"
-"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",,"Yes, No"
-"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",,"Yes, No"
-"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",,"Yes, No"
-"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",,"Yes, No"
+"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",,"Yes, No"
+"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",,"Yes, No"
+"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",,"Yes, No"
+"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",,"Yes, No"
+"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",,"Yes, No"
+"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",,"Yes, No"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",,"Yes, No"
-"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",,"Yes, No"
-"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",,"Yes, No"
-"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",,"Yes, No"
-"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",,"Yes, No"
+"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",,"Yes, No"
+"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",,"Yes, No"
+"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",,"Yes, No"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",,"Yes, No"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No"
"100 million",,"Yes, No"
-"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",,"Yes, No"
-"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",,"Yes, No"
-"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",,"Yes, No"
+"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",,"Yes, No"
+"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",,"Yes, No"
+"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",,"Yes, No"
+"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",,"Yes, No"
+"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",,"Yes, No"
+"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",,"Yes, No"
+"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",,"Yes, No"
+"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",,"Yes, No"
+"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",,"Yes, No"
+"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",,"Yes, No"
+"'President Mike Pence'",,"Yes, No"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",,"Yes, No"
-"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",,"Yes, No"
-"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",,"Yes, No"
-"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",,"Yes, No"
-"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",,"Yes, No"
-"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",,"Yes, No"
-"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",,"Yes, No"
-"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",,"Yes, No"
-"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",,"Yes, No"
-"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",,"Yes, No"
"50 million",,"Yes, No"
+"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",,"Yes, No"
+"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",,"Yes, No"
+"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",,"Yes, No"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",,"Yes, No"
+"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",,"Yes, No"
+"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",,"Yes, No"
+"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",,"Yes, No"
-"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",,"Yes, No"
+"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",,"Yes, No"
+"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",,"Yes, No"
+"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",,"Yes, No"
+"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",,"Yes, No"
+"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",,"Yes, No"
+"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",,"Yes, No"
+"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",,"Yes, No"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",,"Yes, No"
-"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",,"Yes, No"
-"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",,"Yes, No"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",,"Yes, No"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",,"Yes, No"
-"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",,"Yes, No"
+"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",,"Yes, No"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",,"Yes, No"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",,"Yes, No"
-"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",,"Yes, No"
-"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
-"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
+"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",,"Yes, No"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",,"Yes, No"
-"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",,"Yes, No"
-"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
-"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
-"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",,"Yes, No"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",,"Yes, No"
-"'President Mike Pence'",,"Yes, No"
-"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",,"Yes, No"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",,"Yes, No"
+"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",,"Yes, No"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",,"Yes, No"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",,"Yes, No"
-"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",,"Yes, No"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No"
-"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",,"Yes, No"
-"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",,"Yes, No"
-"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",,"Yes, No"
-"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",,"Yes, No"
-"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",,"Yes, No"
+"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",,"Yes, No"
+"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",,"Yes, No"
-"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",,"Yes, No"
-"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",,"Yes, No"
-"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",,"Yes, No"
-"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",,"Yes, No"
-"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",,"Yes, No"
-"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",,"Yes, No"
-""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",,"Yes, No"
-"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
-"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",,"Yes, No"
-"Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",,"Yes, No"
-"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",,"Yes, No"
+"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",,"Yes, No"
+"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
+"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
+"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",,"Yes, No"
+"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",,"Yes, No"
+"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",,"Yes, No"
+"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",,"Yes, No"
+"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",,"Yes, No"
+"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",,"Yes, No"
+"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",,"Yes, No"
+"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",,"Yes, No"
+"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",,"Yes, No"
+"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",,"Yes, No"
+"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
+"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",,"Yes, No"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",,"Yes, No"
-"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",,"Yes, No"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",,"Yes, No"
-"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",,"Yes, No"
-"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",,"Yes, No"
-"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
-"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",,"Yes, No"
-"EU to dissolve by 2040.",,"Yes, No"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",,"Yes, No"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",,"Yes, No"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",,"Yes, No"
-"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",,"Yes, No"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",,"Yes, No"
-"homosexuality criminalized in the US",,"Yes, No"
-"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",,"Yes, No"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",,"Yes, No"
-"WWIII starts before 2030.",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",,"Yes, No"
-"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",,"Yes, No"
-"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",,"Yes, No"
-"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",,"Yes, No"
-"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",,"Yes, No"
-"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No"
-"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",,"Yes, No"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",,"Yes, No"
-"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",,"Yes, No"
-"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",,"Yes, No"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",,"Yes, No"
-"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",,"Yes, No"
+"EU to dissolve by 2040.",,"Yes, No"
+"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",,"Yes, No"
+""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",,"Yes, No"
+"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",,"Yes, No"
+"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",,"Yes, No"
+"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",,"Yes, No"
+"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",,"Yes, No"
+"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",,"Yes, No"
+"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",,"Yes, No"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",,"Yes, No"
-"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",,"Yes, No"
+"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",,"Yes, No"
+"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",,"Yes, No"
+"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",,"Yes, No"
+"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",,"Yes, No"
+"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",,"Yes, No"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",,"Yes, No"
-"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",,"Yes, No"
+"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",,"Yes, No"
+"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
+"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",,"Yes, No"
+"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",,"Yes, No"
+"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",,"Yes, No"
+"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",,"Yes, No"
+"WWIII starts before 2030.",,"Yes, No"
+"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",,"Yes, No"
+"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",,"Yes, No"
+"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",,"Yes, No"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes, No"
-"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",,"Yes, No"
-"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",,"Yes, No"
-"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",,"Yes, No"
-"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",,"Yes, No"
+"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",,"Yes, No"
+"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",,"Yes, No"
+"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",,"Yes, No"
+"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",,"Yes, No"
+"homosexuality criminalized in the US",,"Yes, No"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",,"Yes, No"
-"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",,"Yes, No"
-"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",,"Yes, No"
+"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",,"Yes, No"
+"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No"
+"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",,"Yes, No"
+"Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",,"Yes, No"
+"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",,"Yes, No"
"Estimates for Security (Symbol)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",""
"Estimates for 3M Company (MMM)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",""
"Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",""
@@ -932,14 +932,14 @@ http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes
"In Federal Communications Commission v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","18.92% (7 out of 37) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","50.00% (2 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
-"In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
-"In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","16.67% (1 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
-"In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
-"In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
+"In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
+"In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","28.57% (2 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
+"In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","80.00% (4 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
+"In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
-"In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
+"In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
@@ -1229,7 +1229,7 @@ http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?",,"Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?","This question was commissioned by Open Philanthropy.Dozens of companies are trying to develop a viable vaccine for COVID-19. The FDA has authorized Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found here and here. ""Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately 169.1 million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","Before 1 February 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021, Not before 1 August 2021"
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is pushing to execute its plan. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the UK government. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Not before 1 September 2021"
-"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?","The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""next waves"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.","Less than 275,000, Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive, More than 300,000 but less than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive, More than 500,000"
+"As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?","Closed 28 March 2021; resolved as ""B: Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive"" The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as ""next waves"" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.","Less than 275,000, Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive, More than 300,000 but less than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive, More than 500,000"
"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to recover from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?",,"10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%"
"What will happen next with regard to the Tokyo Olympics?","The Games of the XXXII Olympiad were scheduled to begin on 24 July 2020 in Tokyo. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, they have been postponed to 23 July 2021. Public opinion in Japan is divided between holding, postponing, and cancelling the Games.","The Games will begin, The Games will be postponed again by more than a day, The Games will be cancelled"
@@ -1395,7 +1395,7 @@ To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goo
Versión en Español:
Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?
Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.
-Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e4878885968d828d8785908d8b8a97a4838b8b808e91808389818a90ca878b89db9791868e818790d9b5918197908d8b8ac1d6d4a78885968d828d8785908d8b8a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
+Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#66050a07140f000f0507120f09081526010909020c1302010b0308124805090b591513040c0305125b37130315120f0908435456250a07140f000f0507120f0908). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).
","Yes, No"
"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname.""
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).
@@ -1803,7 +1803,8 @@ If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resol
"Next Labour Party Leader: When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Labour Party leader?",,"2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 or later"
"Next UK Prime Minister: Next PM (Acting PM or similar will not count)",,"Eddie Hughes, Rishi Sunak, Andy Burnham, Sadiq Khan, Grant Shapps, Laurence Fox, Graham Brady, Neil O'Brien, Theresa May, Nadhim Zahawi, Kwasi Kwarteng, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Jeremy Corbyn, Jeremy Hunt, Keir Starmer, Nigel Farage, Penny Mordaunt, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Rory Stewart, Sajid Javid, Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner, James Cleverly, Dominic Raab, Tom Tugendhat, Johnny Mercer, Ruth Davidson, Liz Truss, Michael Gove, Matt Hancock, Priti Patel, Gavin Williamson, Geoffrey Cox, John McDonnell, Yvette Cooper, Lisa Nandy, Steve Baker, Tobia Ellwood, Steve Barclay, Damian Hinds, David Davis, Andrea Leadsom, Kemi Badenoch, Andrea Jenkyns, Bim Afolami, Helen Whately, Kit Malthouse, Mark Harper, Esther McVey, Caroline Lucas, Piers Morgan, David Cameron, Hilary Benn, Liz Saville Roberts, Ed Davey, Laura Pidcock, David Miliband, Harriet Harman, Dominic Cummings, Ed Miiliband, Jess Phillips, Bridget Phillipson"
"West Yorkshire Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",,"Andrew Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Stewart Golton (LD), Tracy Brabin (Lab), Matthew Robinson (Cons), Wajid Ali (Reform)"
-"Hartlepool By-election: Winner",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time), SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind)"
+"Hartlepool By-election: Winner",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind), Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)"
+"Hartlepool By-election: Thelma Walker Vote Share",,"Under 5%, 5-10%, 10-20%, Over 20%"
"Airdrie And Shotts By-election: To Win",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP"
"London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",,"Sadiq Khan (Lab), Shaun Bailey (Cons), Sian Berry (Green), David Kurten (Heritage), Farah London (Ind), Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem), Brian Rose (Ind), Mandu Reid (WEP), Peter Gammons (UKIP), Piers Corbyn, Nims Obunge (Ind), Count Binface, DrillMinister, Winston McKenzie, Kam Balayev (Renew), Laurence Fox (Reclaim), Max Fosh (Ind), Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)"
"London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan R1 Vote Share",,"Under 35%, 35-40%, 40-45%, 45-50%, Over 50%"
@@ -1848,6 +1849,7 @@ If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resol
"Nigel Farage to become UK PM in 2021",,"Yes, No"
"Amanda Gorman to be elected US President in 2036",,"Yes, No"
"Marcus Rashford to become a UK MP before 2060",,"Yes, No"
+"Boris Johnson to be replaced as PM before end 2022",,"Yes, No"
"Piers Morgan to become PM before 2040",,"Yes, No"
"Will large scale solar radiation management be used to mitigate the effects of climate change in the 21st century?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management),
Solar radiation management (SRM) proposals are a type of climate engineering which would seek to reflect sunlight and thus reduce global warming. Proposed methods include increasing the planetary albedo, for example using stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Restorative methods have been proposed regarding the protection of natural heat reflectors like sea ice, snow and glaciers with engineering projects. [...]
@@ -1867,19 +1869,46 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed
In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
",""
-"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.
-Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?
-This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),
-The police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.
-In the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).
-Some have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),
-According to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.
-In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.
-Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?
-This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.
+"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.
+Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.
+The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?
+---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held.
+---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise.
+---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously.
","Yes, No"
+"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","Context
+=======
+
+Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.
+You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).
+The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.
+What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.
+",""
+"What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?","The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?
+What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?
+The price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT).
+---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume.
+If Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:
+---
+Coinbase
+---
+Kraken
+---
+Bitfinex
+---
+Bitstamp
+If none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.
+",""
+"When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?","Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).
+When will China become a democracy?
+This question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.
+This question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.
+",""
"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):
Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election.
If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.
@@ -1887,12 +1916,6 @@ Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?
If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.
If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.
-Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?
-This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.
-This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.
-","Yes, No"
"What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?","Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told)
In late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June.
@@ -1905,65 +1928,39 @@ If the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the q
If the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously.
A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total.
",""
-"How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?","The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims ""to re-open borders without quarantine"" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege,""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.
-How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?
+"If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?","The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.
+At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).
+The question asks: If there is a ""Third World War"", what latitude will it start in?
+Latitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).
+Many wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous.
+Likewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a ""Third World War"" are not met by the resolve date:
---
-Applies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.
+Consensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)
---
-In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.
+Conflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.
+This question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)
+",""
+"When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?","At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.
+The chosen metrics are,
---
-Resolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022.
+[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).
+---
+[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).
+---
+[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.
+This question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.
",""
-"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/)
-In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)
-Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?
-Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary
-","Yes, No"
-"Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?","The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).
-Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?
-We define a ""4th wave"" as satisfying both of these conditions:
-1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more.
-2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k.
-According to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as ""4th waves"":
----trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater
----trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater
----trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater
-The following examples would not:
----trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k
----trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k
----trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k
-Resolves (retroactively if needed) to ""yes"" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).
-","Yes, No"
-"Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?","[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.
-In August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.
-Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?
-The question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).
-Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
-Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.
-","Yes, No"
-"Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.
-To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.
-This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025?
-For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.
-What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?
-This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
-In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors.
+"What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?","Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).
+What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?
+What will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.
",""
-"Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?","On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)
-[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)
-Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?
-In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution.
-A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities.
-A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.
+"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country.
+The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.
+The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)
+Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?
+This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.
+It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.
","Yes, No"
-"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.
-What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?
-This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.
-",""
"What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","Context
-------
@@ -2009,20 +2006,135 @@ Resolution
This question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.
In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.
",""
-"Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","Background
+"When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):
+Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.
+As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.
+When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?
+This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count.
+If Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as "">2025-12-30"".
+In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what ""Elden Ring"" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.
+",""
+"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","related question on Metaculus:
+---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/)
+President-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a ""transition figure"" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [""absolutely""](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [""absolutely""](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.
+Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?
+This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.
+The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?","Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.
+When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?
+This question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.
+The resolution date is the date the report is published.
+The question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.
+If Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound.
+",""
+"Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?","[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.
+In August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.
+Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?
+The question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?","Background
==========
-The price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels.
-With prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020.
-Predictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021.
-Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?
+[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.
+[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.
+What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
+Resolution
+==========
-Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.
-This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.
+Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.
+Historical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).
+",""
+"Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),
+The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.
+For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.
+A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.
+While [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).
+Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?
+This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
+"Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?","From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),
+The end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?
+The chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.
+Swan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.
+As of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)
+Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?
+This question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
+","Yes, No"
+"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.
+Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?
+The question will resolve:
+1--Rishi Sunak
+2--Michael Gove
+3--Jeremy Hunt
+4--Priti Patel
+5--None of the above
+The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.
+If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
+",""
+"Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""?","As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?
+Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""?
+A list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).
+A country will be considered to be a democracy if:
+---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes.
+---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness.
+This question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to ""the left"", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by ""the right"", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a ""right to left"" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.
+If a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.
+In case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.
+Friendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore.
+",""
+"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.
+Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?
+This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?","[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.
+Yamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.
+The question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.
+When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?
+This question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.
+This question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.
+",""
+"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
+Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.
+However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
+The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
+Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?
+What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?
+What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?
+This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).
+in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
+Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
+",""
+"How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?","The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims ""to re-open borders without quarantine"" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege,""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.
+How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?
+---
+Applies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.
+---
+In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.
+---
+Resolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022.
+",""
+"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).
+Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?
+Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?","On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)
+[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)
+Will a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?
+In order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution.
+A positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities.
+A mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.
+What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?
+This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
+In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors.
+",""
+"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.
+What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?
+This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.
+",""
"When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?","Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as
collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1)
where input n is a positive integer.
@@ -2036,37 +2148,6 @@ Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture:
---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/)
---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/)
",""
-"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
-While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.
-The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
-Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
-When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
-This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
-If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.
-Related question
----[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/)
-",""
-"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
-The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
-What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?
-This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list.
-Data
-Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
-This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
-",""
-"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.
-One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.
-Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?
-The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):
-Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.
-As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.
-When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?
-This will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count.
-If Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as "">2025-12-30"".
-In case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what ""Elden Ring"" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.
-",""
"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively.
Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.
This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?
@@ -2074,6 +2155,51 @@ By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a r
By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.
This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.
",""
+"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?","Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
+What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?
+Index
+The index is constructed as follows:
+---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index
+---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100
+The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:
+Image classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)
+Historical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.
+This question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.
+Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
+A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
+---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months
+---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10
+If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.
+For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid.
+",""
+"What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?","On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.
+Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,
+This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.
+Will his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?
+Define a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,
+---
+The Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings
+---
+Forbes college rankings
+---
+The Princeton Review Dream Colleges
+The website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.
+This question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.
+",""
+"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/).
+With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/).
+In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)
+How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?
+This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.
+Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).
+",""
+"Will the next President of the United States be impeached?","So far, the United States has had three presidents out of [44](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) total be [impeached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidential_impeachments): [Andrew Johnson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Andrew_Johnson) in 1868, [Bill Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Bill_Clinton) in 1998, and [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Donald_Trump), the current president, in 2019. [Richard Nixon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_process_against_Richard_Nixon) in 1974 resigned when it seemed likely that he would be impeached and convicted.
+One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were relatively close together relative to the span of US history. As such, it seems possible that we live in a time where presidents are more likely to be impeached.
+Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States?
+The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States.
+","Yes, No"
"What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?","The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.
Johnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.
What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?
@@ -2097,6 +2223,22 @@ A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based
---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today.
---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives.
",""
+"In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.
+[BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.
+In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?
+This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table.
+",""
+"When will North Korea have a McDonald's?","There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism.
+North Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.
+[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.
+Many people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.
+[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)
+In 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)
+This question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?
+This question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.
+This question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.
+The restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)
+",""
"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK.
In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).
However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).
@@ -2104,18 +2246,6 @@ When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?
This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.
ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.
",""
-"In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?","Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.
-[BBC article 2021-02-19: ""Where does the government borrow billions from?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.
-In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?
-This question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled ""2025 DEC"" of the monthly table.
-",""
-"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","related question on Metaculus:
----[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/)
-President-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a ""transition figure"" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [""absolutely""](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [""absolutely""](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.
-Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?
-This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.
-The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria.
-","Yes, No"
"How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?","On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).
See [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,
1--
@@ -2127,6 +2257,21 @@ The local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthqu
4--
A prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.
",""
+"Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.
+The legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as ""[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)"", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to ""hard living conditions or difficult personal situations"".
+Since then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:
+---danger to the life or health of the mother
+---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus
+---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest
+In November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.
+Selection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called ""[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)"" and ""[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)"" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).
+Opposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the ""abortion compromise"". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.
+In February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.
+Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?
+If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.
+Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.
+Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.
+","Yes, No"
"How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?","Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.
During the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).
This question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?
@@ -2136,6 +2281,17 @@ Wars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war be
Terrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.
Armed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.
",""
+"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester).
+Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?
+The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?
+New York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).
+As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.
+Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?
+This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.
+In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/)
+","Yes, No"
"Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?","The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.
The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.
Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (""land-use changes"" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).
@@ -2151,22 +2307,11 @@ Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?
This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.
Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"".
","Yes, No"
-"Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?","During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.
-The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?
-For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.
-",""
-"How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background
-==========
-
-The world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online.
-The e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021.
-In 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.
-How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
+"When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?","[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)
+Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.
+When will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?
+By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.
+This question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.
",""
"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases.
[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.
@@ -2185,18 +2330,75 @@ Related questions:
---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/)
---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)*
",""
-"How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence).
-In previous years, the total amounts granted were:
----2020: $14,210,367
----2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology))
----2018: $4,160,392
----2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support))
----2016: $7,749,985
----2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute))
-How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?
-This will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.
----A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021.
+"What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?","Context
+=======
+
+[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).
+Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.
+Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers
+Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.
+Related questions:
+[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)
+[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)
+What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?
+Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:
+[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)
+[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)
+[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
+[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)
+[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)
+[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)
+[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.
",""
+"When will an AI pass the laugh test?","In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:
+...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.
+For the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)
+Using at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes?
+Fine print:
+---
+The accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies ""I laughed or smiled."" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment.
+---
+The training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.
+---
+It is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.
+",""
+"How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background
+==========
+
+The world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online.
+The e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021.
+In 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.
+How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
+",""
+"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party.
+In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.
+More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).
+Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?
+Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.
+","Yes, No"
+"In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?","In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a ""[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)"".
+As of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.
+France has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).
+The Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).
+The Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming.
+Hungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).
+In Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.
+In January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic
+[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.
+In November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.
+In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?
+This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.
+","Yes, No"
"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]
In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.
As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).
@@ -2204,30 +2406,11 @@ How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1s
Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.
A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532)
",""
-"Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),
-The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.
-For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.
-A mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.
-While [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).
-Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?
-This question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
-Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
-What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
-This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021.
-The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
-The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
-In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012.
-",""
-"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
-They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
-This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
-Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.
-[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.
-This question asks:
-On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
-This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
+"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.
+Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.
+This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?
+By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.
+To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.
","Yes, No"
"When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?","Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.
""[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)"" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.
@@ -2244,15 +2427,23 @@ The date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credi
A structure will be considered a ""cylinder"" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).
The purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design.
",""
-"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
-The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
-The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
-What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?
-This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list.
-Data
-Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
-This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
-",""
+"Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?","Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).
+If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
+Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.
+Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.
+Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.
+During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).
+The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
+They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
+This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
+Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.
+[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.
+This question asks:
+On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
+This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?","Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.
From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):
Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.
@@ -2272,16 +2463,24 @@ If Metaculus evolves so much that either ""resolution"" or ""Metaculus question"
---
If the concepts of ""when"", ""will"", ""last"" or ""occur"" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).
",""
-"Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""?","As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?
-Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by ""the left"" or by ""the right""?
-A list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).
-A country will be considered to be a democracy if:
----It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes.
----A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness.
-This question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to ""the left"", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by ""the right"", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a ""right to left"" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.
-If a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.
-In case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.
-Friendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore.
+"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.
+In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.
+Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?
+This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
+The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
+The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
+What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?
+This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list.
+Data
+Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
+This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
+",""
+"When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?","A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States.
+Two previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.
+When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?
+This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.
",""
"When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?","---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/)
Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth).
@@ -2309,46 +2508,24 @@ The question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to suc
What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?
This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.
",""
-"When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?","A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States.
-Two previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.
-When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?
-This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.
-",""
-"What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","Background
-==========
-
-[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time.
-The capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes.
-The difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period.
-What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?
-
-Data
-====
-
-Current data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-Resolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).
-",""
-"When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?","[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.
-Yamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.
-The question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.
-When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?
-This question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.
-This question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.
-",""
-"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
-Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.
-However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
-The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
-Brynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?
-What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?
-What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?
-This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).
-in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
-Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
+"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]","This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.
+Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this ""general"" intelligence has remained elusive.
+AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.
+But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to ""High level machine intelligence"" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.
+It would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:
+When will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?
+We will thus define ""an artificial general intelligence"" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.
+---
+Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, ""the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.""
+---
+Has general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).
+---
+High competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).
+---
+Be able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the ""intermediate"" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.
+By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)
+Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.
+(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)
",""
"How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?","Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.
If progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.
@@ -2393,36 +2570,17 @@ Here's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will
3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors.
4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations).
",""
-"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]","This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.
-Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this ""general"" intelligence has remained elusive.
-AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.
-But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to ""High level machine intelligence"" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.
-It would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:
-When will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?
-We will thus define ""an artificial general intelligence"" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.
----
-Able to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, ""the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.""
----
-Has general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).
----
-High competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).
----
-Be able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the ""intermediate"" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.
-By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of ""introspection"" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)
-Resolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.
-(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)
-",""
+"Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?","On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.
+Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?
+This question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.
+","Yes, No"
"Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).
This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?
Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.
If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.
Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.
",""
-"Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.
-In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.
-Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?
-Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.
-","Yes, No"
"How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
@@ -2438,42 +2596,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---71 for the calendar year 2018
---91 for the calendar year 2019
",""
-"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.
-Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.
-This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?
-The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.
-",""
-"If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.
-However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:
----[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%).
----[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25).
-The University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.
-Let's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:
----[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/).
----[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/).
----For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question.
-If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?
-For the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.
-
-Closing condition
-
-This question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:
-1--
-The date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.
-2--
-The resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).
-3--
-The closing date stated on this question.
-The reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.
-
-Resolution details
-
-The resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.
-For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.
-If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.
-If the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.
-For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.
-",""
"What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.
However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
@@ -2517,6 +2639,44 @@ The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green
This question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?
Resolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.
","Yes, No"
+"If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.
+However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:
+---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%).
+---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25).
+The University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.
+Let's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:
+---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/).
+---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/).
+---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question.
+If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?
+For the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.
+
+Closing condition
+
+This question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:
+1--
+The date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.
+2--
+The resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).
+3--
+The closing date stated on this question.
+The reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.
+
+Resolution details
+
+The resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.
+For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.
+If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.
+If the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.
+For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.
+",""
+"When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?","As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games.
+ML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).
+If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.
+If an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.
+When will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming?
+Resolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request ""build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.""
+",""
"Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?","[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.
In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.
In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):
@@ -2525,61 +2685,13 @@ The Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.
Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?
This question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).
","Yes, No"
-"When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?","As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games.
-ML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).
-If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.
-If an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.
-When will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming?
-Resolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request ""build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.""
-",""
-"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.
-According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.
-In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.
-This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?
-In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.
-",""
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?","One dose vaccines also count.
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
",""
-"Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?","Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !
-For this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .
-Similar questions:
----[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/)
----[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/)
-","Yes, No"
-"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?","Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
-What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?
-Index
-The index is constructed as follows:
----We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index
----The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100
-The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:
-Image classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)
-Historical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.
-This question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.
-Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
-A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
----At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months
----The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10
-If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.
-For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid.
-",""
-"What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?","On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.
-Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,
-This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.
-Will his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?
-Define a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,
----
-The Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings
----
-Forbes college rankings
----
-The Princeton Review Dream Colleges
-The website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.
-This question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.
+"How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?","The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).
+One reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.
+Resolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)
",""
"Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?","[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.
As of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
@@ -2588,25 +2700,55 @@ Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?
This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.
In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?","On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC):
-Hearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick.
-Let's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses.
-The ""always open"" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season?
-Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?
-Resolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location.
+"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)
+There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.
+BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?
+After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.
","Yes, No"
-"How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.
-This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease.
-This question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).
-Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates.
-In case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.
-Other questions in the series.
-How many new cases of COVID-19 in:
----[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/)
----[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/)
----[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/)
-Similar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)
+"By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960.
+Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.
+By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?
+Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.
+If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative.
+","Yes, No"
+"How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?","In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients.
+How many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023.
+For a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a ""substantial portion"" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A ""substantial portion"" here is defined as:
+---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or
+---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn
+The company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.
+Plant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).
+In case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.
",""
+"How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?","Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),
+I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.
+You would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.
+Foreseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.
+The most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).
+How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?
+This question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.
+",""
+"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
+Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
+What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
+This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030.
+The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
+The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
+",""
+"Will online poker die by 2030?","In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)
+Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.
+In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)
+In 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)
+“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.
+According to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.
+Will online poker die by 2030?
+This question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes.
+This question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.
+If there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting.
+The rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020.
+","Yes, No"
"In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?","Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.
[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission.
The U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).
@@ -2627,35 +2769,18 @@ To be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least on
(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)
(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)
",""
-"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
-Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
-What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
-This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030.
-The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
-The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
-",""
-"Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations.
-A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example.
-“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics.
-Giving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further.
-It also urges approval of more vaccines.
-Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?
-This question resolves positively if prior to Apr 1st, credible reports say that US health officials have implemented any of the following policies from the above op-ed:
----
-Approval of Astrazeneca, Novavax, or Sputnik vaccines
----
-Half dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines
----
-Delaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines
----
-Giving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19
-","Yes, No"
-"When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?","Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco.
-The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China.
-Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.
-When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?
-This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.
-As a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.
+"When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?","See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.
+Germany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.
+French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.
+In March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.
+The Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.
+Assoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs
+When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?
+This resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:
+1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and
+2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.
+Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.
+In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.
",""
"When will PHP die?","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995.
According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):
@@ -2679,16 +2804,55 @@ Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming l
This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.
General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.
",""
-"When will North Korea have a McDonald's?","There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism.
-North Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.
-[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.
-Many people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.
-[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)
-In 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)
-This question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?
-This question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.
-This question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.
-The restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)
+"Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations.
+A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example.
+“Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics.
+Giving the Americans who have already been infected (up to 100 million people) only one shot would help doses go further.
+It also urges approval of more vaccines.
+Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?
+This question resolves positively if prior to Apr 1st, credible reports say that US health officials have implemented any of the following policies from the above op-ed:
+---
+Approval of Astrazeneca, Novavax, or Sputnik vaccines
+---
+Half dosing of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines
+---
+Delaying the second dose of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines
+---
+Giving only one shot to those who have previously recovered from Covid-19
+","Yes, No"
+"When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?","A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.
+In essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners.
+The [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.
+In the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.
+This question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?
+For the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.
+A 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service.
+Additionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.
+Amusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.
+This question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.
+",""
+"How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)).
+The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):
+The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.
+Tesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.
+How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.
+Data
+According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:
+2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.
+",""
+"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that
+Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one.
+Will Hanson win the bet?
+Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.
+","Yes, No"
+"When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?","Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco.
+The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China.
+Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.
+When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?
+This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.
+As a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.
",""
"What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?","In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.
In recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.
@@ -2696,21 +2860,45 @@ In recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's populatio
What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?
Resolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.
",""
-"Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.
-The legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as ""[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)"", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to ""hard living conditions or difficult personal situations"".
-Since then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:
----danger to the life or health of the mother
----high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus
----suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest
-In November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.
-Selection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called ""[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)"" and ""[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)"" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).
-Opposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the ""abortion compromise"". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.
-In February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.
-Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?
-If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.
-Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.
-Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.
+"What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
+The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
+What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?
+This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list.
+Data
+Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
+This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
+",""
+"Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research.
+Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?
+Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party.
+Question resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.
+Note that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.
","Yes, No"
+"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.
+According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.
+In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.
+This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?
+In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.
+",""
+"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
+Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
+Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.
+How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
+This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
+Details of the search query
+For the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
+The [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
+Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.
+Running this query for previous years gives:
+---2,397 for the calendar year 2017
+---3,726 for the calendar year 2018
+---5,390 for the calendar year 2019
+---7,128 for the calendar year 2020
+",""
+"When will the US-Canada border reopen?","The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.
+When will the US-Canada border reopen?
+This question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.
+",""
"Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?","Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).
Jeff McAulay argued,
Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.
@@ -2719,10 +2907,6 @@ I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate.
Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?
If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
-"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester).
-Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?
-The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.
-","Yes, No"
"When will the first human mission to Venus take place?","[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's ""sister planet"" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.
It has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.
Due to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.
@@ -2745,10 +2929,44 @@ When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?
This question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the ""means of power"" (broadly, controls the military and police).
If Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as "">"".
",""
+"What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?","Background
+==========
+
+The [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy.
+“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”
+Consumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.
+What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?
+
+Resolution
+==========
+
+Predictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI.
+The resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).
+",""
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?","One dose vaccines also count.
How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
",""
+"Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?","The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.
+This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.
+Question: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?
+Resolution
+This questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:
+---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service))
+---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit))
+---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/)
+---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/)
+---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html)
+---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html)
+---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/)
+---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england)
+---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx)
+---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=)
+---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html)
+In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.
+The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.
+This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).
+","Yes, No"
"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on.
While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.
Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.
@@ -2760,6 +2978,25 @@ Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 p
---2018: $617
---2019: $592
",""
+"Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?","The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.
+According to its website:
+MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.
+Recently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:
+At the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.
+Will MIRI exist in 2030?
+This question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety.
+For the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.
+Research is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm.
+If MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.
+In case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be ""developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields"" will not apply.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:
+Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:
+""All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.""
+The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?
+---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy.
+---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?","As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).
When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?
This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).
@@ -2779,50 +3016,11 @@ Resolution Criteria
Predictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading.
Resolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.
",""
-"When will an AI pass the laugh test?","In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:
-...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.
-For the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)
-Using at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes?
-Fine print:
----
-The accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies ""I laughed or smiled."" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment.
----
-The training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.
----
-It is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.
-",""
-"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:
-Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:
-""All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.""
-The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?
----Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy.
----De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency.
+"Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?","Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.
+In 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.
+Canada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?
+Resolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.
","Yes, No"
-"What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?","Context
-=======
-
-[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).
-Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.
-Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers
-Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.
-Related questions:
-[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)
-[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)
-What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?
-Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:
-[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)
-[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)
-[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
-[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)
-[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)
-[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)
-[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.
-",""
"When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?","Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.
When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?
The date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.
@@ -2886,11 +3084,36 @@ It resolves negative if he is not president at that time.
Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.
In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution.
","Yes, No"
+"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.
+[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).
+When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?
+This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).
+If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.
+If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.
+",""
"When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published.
The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).
When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?
This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"".
",""
+"Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?","The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.
+The term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.
+Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=124411317§ion=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.
+Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?
+This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.
+If no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.
+The question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
+Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
+The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
+As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.
+An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.
+What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?
+This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
+",""
"What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine).
As of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed.
Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public.
@@ -2917,41 +3140,72 @@ If party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as b
--
Only state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution.
",""
-"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
-Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
-The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
-As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.
-An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.
-What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?
-This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
+"Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?","The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),
+This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning
+Paul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,
+It now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”
+It’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.
+It’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).
+Assume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.
+Metaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:
+Was the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?
+Respondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:
+---
+The complete system was based on DL
+---
+Most of system was based on DL
+---
+At least a significant portion of the system was based on DL
+---
+Only a minor portion of the system was based on DL
+---
+No portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL
+---
+I don't know
+Then the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond ""I don't know"" respond as follows:
+---
+The complete system was based on DL
+---
+Most of system was based on DL
+The question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond ""I don't know"".
+","Yes, No"
+"Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?","Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020.
+The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.
+More details can be found here:
+---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db)
+---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal)
+Markus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.
+This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:
+---Markus Braun
+---Jan Marsalek
+---Alexander von Knoop
+---Susanne Steidl
+---Jan Marsalek
+---Oliver Bellenhaus
+The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.
+Convictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment
+","Yes, No"
+"When will be the next ""Great Power"" war?","A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea.
+While great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes
+The world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.
+A great power is said to be ""at war"" with another great power, if any of the following are true:
+---
+One nation has formally declared war on another.
+---
+One nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.
+---
+High quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as ""at war.""
+For the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).
+The date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?
",""
-"Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?","The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.
-The term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.
-Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=124411317§ion=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.
-Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?
-This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.
-If no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.
-The question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.
-","Yes, No"
-"Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?","Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).
-If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
-Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.
-Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.
-Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.
-During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).
-The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.
-Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.
-Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.
-On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.
-Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?
-This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.
-In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.
-Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.
-Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.
+"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.
+Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).
+Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?
+This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:
+---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data.
+---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.
+---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC.
+This question resolves negatively otherwise.
","Yes, No"
"When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?","The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
@@ -2961,25 +3215,51 @@ Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
",""
-"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).
-Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?
-This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.
+"When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?","[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is ""not fit for purpose"". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.
+It is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight.
+This system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.
+The [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]
+When will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?
+Resolution
+This resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.
+Important note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as "">Dec 31, 2032"".
+One way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.
+The question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.
+",""
+"Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","Background
+==========
+
+The price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels.
+With prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020.
+Predictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021.
+Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.
+This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?","Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.
+On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).
+After Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.
+A Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year.
+According to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):
+The fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday.
+Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?
+This question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.
+In case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.
","Yes, No"
"What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?","Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.
In the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.
What value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?
The CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.
",""
-"Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
-The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
-The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.
-In this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .
-It is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
-Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.
-Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.
-The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
-",""
+"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).
+Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?
+This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.
+","Yes, No"
"Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?","In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.
Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?
The question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).
@@ -2988,18 +3268,13 @@ Related Questions
---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/)
If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.
","Yes, No"
-"How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years.
-How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?
-The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.
-The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field.
-",""
-"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
-There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.
-In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).
-In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?
-Resolution
-For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.
-",""
+"Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?
+Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?
+This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.
+If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).
+Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).
+This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.
+","Yes, No"
"Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.
The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.
[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.
@@ -3007,10 +3282,19 @@ This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK gen
This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.
This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?","On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.
-Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?
-This question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.
+"How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years.
+How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?
+The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.
+The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field.
+",""
+"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/)
+In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)
+Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?
+Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary
+","Yes, No"
+"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?
+Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?
+The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.
","Yes, No"
"Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?","One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar.
The currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.
@@ -3027,15 +3311,6 @@ When will the US-EU border reopen?
Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.
Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.
",""
-"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?
-Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?
-The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”.
-The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.
-Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?
-This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).
-","Yes, No"
"Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.
Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?
The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:
@@ -3046,19 +3321,85 @@ The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:
The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.
The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022.
","Yes, No"
-"What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?","Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.
-The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).
-What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?
-The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).
-If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.
-(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)
+"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”.
+The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.
+Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?
+This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).
+","Yes, No"
+"Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on.
+While they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.
+GiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's ""cost per life saved"" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?
+GiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:
+---Malaria Consortium
+---Against Malaria Foundation
+---Helen Keller International
+---Deworm the World Initiative
+---SCI Foundation
+---Sightsavers' deworming program[1]
+---END Fund's deworming program[1]
+---GiveDirectly
+If the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.
+Some clarifications:
+GiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say ""2019 top charities"", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.
+If GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.
+If GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.
+If 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.
+If 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.
+If GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).
+[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.
+","Yes, No"
+"13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?","Context
+-------
+
+Given that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle.
+The [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).
+In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z).
+Accurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).
+At present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:
+What will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
+For context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).
+
+Resolution Criteria
+-------------------
+
+The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.
",""
+"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.
+On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?
+This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.
+","Yes, No"
"If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?","The [Keystone Pipeline system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline) is an oil pipeline in Canada and the United States, beginning operations in 2010.
The fourth phase, referred to as Keystone XL, attracted opposition from environmentalists and was eventually denied a permit by the Obama administration in 2015. Under Trump, a permit was granted again, though construction has not yet started.
In May 2020, Biden claimed that if elected, [he will cancel the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/biden-kxl-1.5574515).
If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the Keystone Pipeline system be extended by at least 100 km between his inauguration and the end of 2024?
Only the length of pipeline built on US territory will count for this question.
","Yes, No"
+"Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?","In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.”
+On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:
+---
+Claim natural-born U.S. citizenship
+---
+Receive Medicaid and Medicare
+---
+Vote in Presidential primaries
+On the other hand, they cannot:
+---
+Vote in Congressional or Presidential elections
+---
+Get access to other government programs
+---
+Be represented in Congress by a voting legislator
+The issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.
+Why? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).
+On the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:
+40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.
+Even if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html):
+To become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the ""New States"" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive.
+Although there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):
+While Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.
+What do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.
+","Yes, No"
"As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?","Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.
Judging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development.
One thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time.
@@ -3084,31 +3425,6 @@ This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the populat
By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.
To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.""
",""
-"Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?","In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.”
-On the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:
----
-Claim natural-born U.S. citizenship
----
-Receive Medicaid and Medicare
----
-Vote in Presidential primaries
-On the other hand, they cannot:
----
-Vote in Congressional or Presidential elections
----
-Get access to other government programs
----
-Be represented in Congress by a voting legislator
-The issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.
-Why? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).
-On the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:
-40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.
-Even if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html):
-To become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the ""New States"" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive.
-Although there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):
-While Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.
-What do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.
-","Yes, No"
"How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
@@ -3124,6 +3440,11 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---71 for the calendar year 2018
---91 for the calendar year 2019
",""
+"When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.
+However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:
+When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
+Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.
+",""
"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):
4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.
4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.
@@ -3133,21 +3454,6 @@ When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine
This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.
If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.
",""
-"When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.
-However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:
-When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?
-Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.
-",""
-"Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).
-The proposition in question will be taken as:
-The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.
-That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [""self-resolving"" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:
----
-If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)
----
-Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.
-(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)
-","Yes, No"
"Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?","Earlier this year US Vice President Mike Pence instructed NASA to launch the first woman and the next man to the surface of the Moon by 2024. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.
The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.
[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17, with the accelerated timeline proposed by the 2020 NASA budget to land a woman on the Moon by 2024.
@@ -3155,49 +3461,12 @@ Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 20
This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs.
See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/)
","Yes, No"
-"Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?","During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).
-In view of the above, this question asks:
-Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?
----
-This question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).
----
-This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.
-The 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286).
-","Yes, No"
-"By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960.
-Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.
-By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?
-Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.
-If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons.
-On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.
-The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.
-Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?
-This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.
-Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).
----The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example.
----If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with.
----This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria.
-","Yes, No"
-"How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?","In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients.
-How many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023.
-For a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a ""substantial portion"" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A ""substantial portion"" here is defined as:
----at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or
----at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn
-The company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.
-Plant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).
-In case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.
-",""
-"How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?","Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),
-I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.
-You would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.
-Foreseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.
-The most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).
-How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?
-This question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.
+"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule.
+Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%.
+However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.
+When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?
+This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.
+Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity.
",""
"Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?","The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU.
As part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland ""shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland""
@@ -3205,6 +3474,15 @@ More details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland).
Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?
This question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01.
","Yes, No"
+"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.
+At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)
+An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.
+What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?
+This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).
+In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
+",""
"Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?","As of question writing, all known life is carbon-based, in the sense that it needs to contain carbon atoms to survive.
But life could take many forms:
---Wikipedia has a handy list of [hypothetical types of biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry), notably [silicon biochemistry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry#Silicon_biochemistry).
@@ -3226,75 +3504,25 @@ Resolution details:
* My thanks to @(Uncle Jeff) for this example.
Note that in this sense Humans are only ""based"" on hydrogen (60%), oxygen (25%), carbon (10%) and nitrogen (1.5%).
","Yes, No"
-"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.
-At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)
-An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.
-What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?
-This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).
-In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
-",""
-"Will online poker die by 2030?","In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)
-Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.
-In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)
-In 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)
-“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.
-According to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.
-Will online poker die by 2030?
-This question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes.
-This question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.
-If there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting.
-The rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020.
+"Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?","The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).
+Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?
+We define a ""4th wave"" as satisfying both of these conditions:
+1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more.
+2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k.
+According to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as ""4th waves"":
+---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater
+---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater
+---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater
+The following examples would not:
+---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k
+---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k
+---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k
+Resolves (retroactively if needed) to ""yes"" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).
","Yes, No"
-"Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?","On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.
-[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)
-The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.
-This new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.
-As of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.
-Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?
-This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.
-Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?","See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.
-Germany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.
-French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.
-In March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.
-The Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.
-Assoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs
-When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?
-This resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:
-1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and
-2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.
-Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.
-In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.
-",""
-"When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?","A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.
-In essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners.
-The [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.
-In the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.
-This question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?
-For the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.
-A 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service.
-Additionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.
-Amusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.
-This question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.
-",""
"What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?","[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).
What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?
---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others.
",""
-"How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)).
-The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):
-The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.
-Tesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.
-How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.
-Data
-According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:
-2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.
-",""
"When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?","Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.
The test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.
They found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.
@@ -3321,11 +3549,6 @@ The authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The
The model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.
Fine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.
",""
-"When will the mammoth be revived?","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.
-When will the mammoth be revived?
-This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.
-The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.
-",""
"When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?","Background
==========
@@ -3341,51 +3564,28 @@ A successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following cri
Predictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution.
Resolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO.
",""
+"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.
+There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:
+---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House.
+---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant.""
+While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)
+The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).
+Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?
+This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.
+Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only.
+","Yes, No"
"Will China land the next person on the Moon?","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.
Will China land the next person on the Moon?
This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.
This question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.
For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.
","Yes, No"
-"Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research.
-Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?
-Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party.
-Question resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.
-Note that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.
-","Yes, No"
-"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
-Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
-Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.
-How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
-This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
-Details of the search query
-For the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
-The [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
-Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.
-Running this query for previous years gives:
----2,397 for the calendar year 2017
----3,726 for the calendar year 2018
----5,390 for the calendar year 2019
----7,128 for the calendar year 2020
+"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
+What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
+This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022.
+The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
+The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
",""
-"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw.
-In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:
-1--
-White wins
-2--
-Black wins
-3--
-Forced draw
-If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw?
-For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if
----
-it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides
----
-it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw
-Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.
-For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question
-This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.
-","Yes, No"
"When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).
While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).
When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?
@@ -3414,19 +3614,19 @@ Perhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.
What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?
---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html)
",""
+"Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.
+Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.
+One way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.
+This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?
+This question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.
+Importantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.
+","Yes, No"
"When will GTA VI be released in the US?","[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.
The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).
When will GTA VI be released?
This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series.
This date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.
",""
-"Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
-The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.
-Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900.
-This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?
-Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.
-A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).
-","Yes, No"
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?
@@ -3434,6 +3634,21 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th
GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
",""
+"When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?","Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.
+Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.
+Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.
+When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?
+This question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:
+1--
+Australia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.
+2--
+Australia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).
+3--
+Australia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.
+Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).
+If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).
+Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source.
+",""
"When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?","Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM.
About [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants.
Dates of note
@@ -3455,14 +3670,6 @@ No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two wee
Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period
In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?","Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).
-Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.
-The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.
-Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
-Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?
-The acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.
-If Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution.
-","Yes, No"
"In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?","Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,
According to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.
Scott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model.
@@ -3480,55 +3687,6 @@ Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
",""
-"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),
-By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.
-To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]
-Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”
-When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?
-This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.
-",""
-"What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?","Background
-==========
-
-The [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy.
-“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”
-Consumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.
-What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?
-
-Resolution
-==========
-
-Predictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI.
-The resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).
-",""
-"Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?","The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.
-[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)
-In recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)
-However, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.
-This question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?
-This question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.
-If before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.
-","Yes, No"
-"Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?","The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.
-This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.
-Question: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?
-Resolution
-This questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:
----[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service))
----The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit))
----[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/)
----[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/)
----The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html)
----[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html)
----[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/)
----[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england)
----[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx)
----[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=)
----[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html)
-In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.
-The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.
-This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).
-","Yes, No"
"Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?","Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.
He was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)
However, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election
@@ -3537,50 +3695,59 @@ Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elect
Resolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.
Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
-They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
-This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
-Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.
-[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.
-This question asks:
-On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?
-This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above.
-If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.
-If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.
-If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
-*As judged by a metaculus admin.
-",""
-"Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?","The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.
-According to its website:
-MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.
-Recently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:
-At the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.
-Will MIRI exist in 2030?
-This question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety.
-For the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.
-Research is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm.
-If MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.
-In case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be ""developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields"" will not apply.
+"Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?","Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.
+In particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.
+Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?
+Resolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.
","Yes, No"
"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).
The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.
What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration).
",""
-"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
-[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.
-As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt).
-An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.
-What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?
-This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+"Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
+The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.
+Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900.
+This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?
+Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.
+A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).
+","Yes, No"
+"Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?","Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?
+This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
+Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
+ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet.
+As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.
+A good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.
+What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?
+This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.
+For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
",""
+"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","Context
+
+Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.
+This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+
+This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.
+","Yes, No"
"How many NASA ""space launch system"" (SLS) launches before 2030?","The first test launch of NASA's new ""Space Launch System"" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)
Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)
On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the ""Europa Clipper"" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the ""Lunar Gateway"" space station as currently envisioned.
How will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?
Question will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.
",""
+"Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?","Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).
+Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.
+The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.
+Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
+Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?
+The acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.
+If Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution.
+","Yes, No"
"Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
This question asks:
@@ -3605,6 +3772,22 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed
In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
",""
+"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","Context
+=======
+
+The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.
+The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.
+Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).
+Related questions:
+[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)
+[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)
+What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.
+",""
"Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?","Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).
Joseph F. Huttner argued,
1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]
@@ -3616,17 +3799,6 @@ My reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that th
Will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?
If the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
-"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.
-Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.
-What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?
-The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.
-Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:
-A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic
-B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.
-C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.
-I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.
-I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.
-",""
"Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.
Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as
a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.
@@ -3676,6 +3848,26 @@ If the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.
If the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.
Otherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.
",""
+"Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).
+The proposition in question will be taken as:
+The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.
+That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [""self-resolving"" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:
+---
+If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)
+---
+Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.
+(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)
+","Yes, No"
+"Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?","The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.
+At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).
+The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
+1--Number of Gold Medals
+2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals
+3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals
+The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?
+Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?
+This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.
+","Yes, No"
"Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?","related question on Metaculus:
---[If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/)
Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). This question will be judged yes if Starlink or a parent company with full ownership(i.e. SpaceX) conduct an IPO or if a publicly traded company acquires majority ownership of Starlink. Otherwise the question will resolve no.
@@ -3711,34 +3903,29 @@ Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regul
This question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively.
In the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement.
","Yes, No"
-"Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?","The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),
-This book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning
-Paul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,
-It now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”
-It’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.
-It’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).
-Assume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.
-Metaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:
-Was the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?
-Respondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:
----
-The complete system was based on DL
----
-Most of system was based on DL
----
-At least a significant portion of the system was based on DL
----
-Only a minor portion of the system was based on DL
----
-No portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL
----
-I don't know
-Then the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond ""I don't know"" respond as follows:
----
-The complete system was based on DL
----
-Most of system was based on DL
-The question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond ""I don't know"".
+"Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?","Related questions on Metaculus:
+---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/)
+---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/)
+---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/)
+Many people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).
+Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?
+This question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.
+This question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),
+The police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.
+In the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).
+Some have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),
+According to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.
+In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.
+Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?
+This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?","Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.
+Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?
+This question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.
+This question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.
","Yes, No"
"What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.
This question asks:
@@ -3749,28 +3936,11 @@ Resolution criteria:
With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.
The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.
",""
-"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.
-Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).
-Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?
-This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:
----There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (""free area"") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data.
----There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.
----There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC.
-This question resolves negatively otherwise.
+"Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.
+To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.
+This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025?
+For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.
","Yes, No"
-"When will be the next ""Great Power"" war?","A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea.
-While great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes
-The world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.
-A great power is said to be ""at war"" with another great power, if any of the following are true:
----
-One nation has formally declared war on another.
----
-One nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.
----
-High quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as ""at war.""
-For the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).
-The date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?
-",""
"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),
In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]
A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]
@@ -3780,57 +3950,53 @@ This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 203
If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.
Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).
",""
-"What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?","The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?
-What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?
-The price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT).
----We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume.
-If Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:
----
-Coinbase
----
-Kraken
----
-Bitfinex
----
-Bitstamp
-If none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.
+"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
+While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.
+The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
+Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
+When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
+This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
+If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.
+Related question
+---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/)
",""
-"Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on.
-While they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.
-GiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's ""cost per life saved"" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?
-GiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:
----Malaria Consortium
----Against Malaria Foundation
----Helen Keller International
----Deworm the World Initiative
----SCI Foundation
----Sightsavers' deworming program[1]
----END Fund's deworming program[1]
----GiveDirectly
-If the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.
-Some clarifications:
-GiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say ""2019 top charities"", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.
-If GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.
-If GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.
-If 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.
-If 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.
-If GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).
-[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?","Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.
-On 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).
-After Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.
-A Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year.
-According to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):
-The fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday.
-Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?
-This question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.
-In case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?","[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.
-Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?
-This question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.
+"Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?","Related question on Metaculus:
+[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)
+Democrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).
+But who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?
+Senate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).
+(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, ""All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip."" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)
+Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?
+This question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.
+This question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.
+Question resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.
+Best source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.
+Alternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice.
","Yes, No"
+"How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?","One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence).
+In previous years, the total amounts granted were:
+---2020: $14,210,367
+---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology))
+---2018: $4,160,392
+---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support))
+---2016: $7,749,985
+---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute))
+How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?
+This will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.
+---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021.
+",""
+"Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?","During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.
+The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?
+For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.
+",""
+"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
+Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
+What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
+This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021.
+The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
+The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
+In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012.
+",""
"Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus.
[This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up.
And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction.
@@ -3842,11 +4008,47 @@ This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bi
---
Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like ""viruses"".
","Yes, No"
-"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).
-When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?
-This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.
-If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.
+"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?
+Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?
+The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.
+An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive)
+","Yes, No"
+"What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","Background
+==========
+
+[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time.
+The capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes.
+The difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period.
+What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?
+
+Data
+====
+
+Current data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+Resolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).
",""
+"Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),
+Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.
+From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),
+The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.
+In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.
+“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”
+The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef.
+From Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),
+a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.
+You can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).
+Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?
+This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:
+---
+The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).
+---
+Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.
+Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.
+","Yes, No"
"Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?","[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) ""Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders."". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.
Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?
This question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases).
@@ -3856,11 +4058,6 @@ Furthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:
---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati.
Hence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.
","Yes, No"
-"[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.
-The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.
-When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?
-The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.
-",""
"How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?","related questions on Metaculus:
---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/)
As of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.
@@ -3868,15 +4065,81 @@ Some activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/),
How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?
This question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.
",""
-"Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),
-Seasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.
-Proponents say seasteads can ""provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship."" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.
-No one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.
-As an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous ""seazone"" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.
-The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.
-Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?
-This question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria.
+"Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?","Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !
+For this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .
+Similar questions:
+---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/)
+---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/)
","Yes, No"
+"How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.
+This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease.
+This question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).
+Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates.
+In case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.
+Other questions in the series.
+How many new cases of COVID-19 in:
+---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/)
+---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/)
+---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/)
+Similar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)
+",""
+"When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.
+Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.
+This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?
+The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.
+",""
+"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","Markets and Markets reports that:
+“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”
+These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet.
+The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.
+The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.
+What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?
+Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022.
+Data:
+Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%
+",""
+"Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned.
+Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed?
+We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?
+Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date,
+1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:
+1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.
+1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.
+1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).
+1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.
+AND
+2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).
+*In case the term ""convicted"" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.
+","Yes, No"
+"By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?","The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.
+That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min)
+All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916):
+This [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.
+More exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.
+Some extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).
+And there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):
+When US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.
+Funk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)
+","Yes, No"
+"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.
+Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.
+Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.
+On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.
+Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?
+This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.
+In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.
+Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.
+Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.
+","Yes, No"
+"Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
+The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
+The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.
+In this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .
+It is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.
+Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.
+Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.
+The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
+",""
"How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.
There is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.
Data sources and more information:
@@ -3891,28 +4154,108 @@ Data sources and more information:
How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?
This question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).
",""
+"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
+There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.
+In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).
+In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?
+Resolution
+For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.
+",""
+"Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?","Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)
+The United States House of Representatives (""House"") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.
+Tensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.
+Democrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).
+Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?
+The question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.
+The question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).
+The question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.
+[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.
+""House Member"" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.
+Resolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).
+Note: A vote to remove a Member following an ""Election Contest"" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?","Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.
+The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).
+What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?
+The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).
+If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.
+(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)
+",""
+"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons.
+On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.
+The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.
+Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?
+This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.
+Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).
+---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example.
+---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with.
+---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?","On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.
+[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)
+The case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.
+This new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.
+As of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.
+Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?
+This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.
+Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will the mammoth be revived?","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.
+When will the mammoth be revived?
+This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.
+The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.
+",""
"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).
With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.
The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’
When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?
Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.
",""
-"Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?","There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)
-Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):
-2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th
-Will they come in the Top 4 again?
-Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics
-This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.
-The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
-1--Number of Gold Medals
-2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals
-3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals
+"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw.
+In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:
+1--
+White wins
+2--
+Black wins
+3--
+Forced draw
+If chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw?
+For the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if
+---
+it is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides
+---
+it is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw
+Resolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.
+For the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question
+This question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.
","Yes, No"
-"World Population in 2050?","The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.
-Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.
-Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?
-We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)
-Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.
+"When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),
+By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.
+To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]
+Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”
+When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?
+This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.
+",""
+"Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?","The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.
+[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)
+In recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)
+However, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.
+This question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?
+This question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.
+If before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
+They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
+This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
+Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.
+[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.
+This question asks:
+On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?
+This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above.
+If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.
+If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.
+If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
+*As judged by a metaculus admin.
",""
"Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?","previous Metaculus questions:
---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/)
@@ -3925,34 +4268,47 @@ As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear inciden
Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
This question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.
","Yes, No"
-"When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)
-Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.
-[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).
-But more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.
-[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)
-When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?
-This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.
-So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.
-If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor.
+"What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.
+Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.
+What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?
+The ""magic"" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.
+Qualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:
+A) p = 0%: The World is deterministic
+B) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.
+C) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.
+I'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.
+I've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.
",""
-"13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?","Context
--------
+"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
+[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.
+As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt).
+An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.
+What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?
+This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+",""
+"How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background
+==========
-Given that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle.
-The [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).
-In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z).
-Accurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).
-At present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:
-What will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?
-For context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).
+The number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education.
+With resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days.
+Going forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.
+How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?
Resolution Criteria
--------------------
+===================
-The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.
+Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
+In 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.
",""
-"What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?
-The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.
+"Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?","[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.
+Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?
+This question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).
+When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?
+This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.
+If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.
",""
"If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","related question on Metaculus:
---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/)
@@ -3962,6 +4318,39 @@ This claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New Y
If there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.
Comparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation.
","Yes, No"
+"[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?","[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.
+The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.
+When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?
+The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.
+",""
+"What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?","[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely:
+---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be ""commonplace"" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed.
+---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty ""with 99.9 per cent accuracy""
+---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour ""indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods"", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements.
+---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost ""error-free"" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth.
+---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become ""commonplace"" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study
+---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past
+---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century
+---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required
+---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying
+What percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)
+What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?
+In 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct.
+Examples:
+---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100.
+---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0.
+---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25.
+The term ""robotic judges"" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase ""Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying"" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be.
+",""
+"Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading),
+Seasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading.
+Proponents say seasteads can ""provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship."" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations.
+No one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands.
+As an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous ""seazone"" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018.
+The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials.
+Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?
+This question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?","related questions on Metaculus:
---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/)
---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/)
@@ -3981,6 +4370,36 @@ At some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other
When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?
The question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).
",""
+"Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?","There is a phenomenon at the Olympics [where by the host country tends to outperform it's recent performances](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-there-home-field-advantage-at-the-olympics/)
+Japan is hosting the Olympics in 2021. Will they place significantly higher in the medal table than they have in recent years. Their last [5 placings were](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_at_the_Olympics):
+2000: 15th 2004: 5th 2008: 8th 2012: 11th 2016: 6th
+Will they come in the Top 4 again?
+Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics
+This question will resolve positively if Japan place in the top 4 (ties resolve positively) at the Olympics being held in 2021. It will resolve ambiguously if the Olympics do not take place in 2021.
+The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
+1--Number of Gold Medals
+2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals
+3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals
+","Yes, No"
+"World Population in 2050?","The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.
+Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.
+Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?
+We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)
+Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.
+",""
+"When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)
+Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.
+[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).
+But more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.
+[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)
+When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?
+This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.
+So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.
+If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor.
+",""
+"What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?
+The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.
+",""
"When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?","SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [""fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond""](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a ""rapid unscheduled disassembly"" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).
SpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.
When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?
@@ -4046,6 +4465,23 @@ You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.o
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print]
",""
+"Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?","[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)
+roughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.
+In [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.
+Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?
+This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.
+","Yes, No"
+"By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?","What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is.
+I still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience.
+Fear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so.
+Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.
+","Yes, No"
+"Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),
+The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.
+Historical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).
+What will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?
+This question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.
+",""
"Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures.
JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including:
---
@@ -4079,6 +4515,45 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th
GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
",""
+"What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?","Context
+=======
+
+The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.
+Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.
+[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.
+Because of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.
+It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.
+Other Related Questions:
+[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)
+[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)
+What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.
+",""
+"Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?","The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood.
+The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is ""in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.""
+The website further states that the project team ""expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.""
+Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?
+The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.
+This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).
+The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.
+Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.
+What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?
+Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.
+",""
+"Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?","Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.
+Polls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).
+Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?
+---
+If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.
+---
+If any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.
+","Yes, No"
"Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?","[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/).
According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability.
Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))?
@@ -4104,6 +4579,14 @@ This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United
The question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.
Note that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
",""
+"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
+The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
+The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
+What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?
+This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list.
+Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
+This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
+",""
"What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"".
In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.
In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.
@@ -4155,19 +4638,6 @@ If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroac
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays.
",""
-"Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?","Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?
-This question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
-Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
-ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet.
-As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.
-A good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.
-What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?
-This question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.
-For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-",""
"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/).
Data sources:
---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations)
@@ -4184,6 +4654,32 @@ If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surfa
Will we find life on Mars by 2050?
This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
+"For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","Context
+=======
+
+[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.
+It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.
+The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.
+You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)
+Due to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.
+With [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.
+Similar Questions:
+[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)
+[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)
+For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?
+Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:
+[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)
+[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
+[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)
+[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)
+[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)
+[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.
+",""
"What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve?
The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.
""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:
@@ -4203,6 +4699,33 @@ If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
",""
+"Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?","Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target.
+In November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)
+Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.
+Background reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:
+1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm)
+2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/)
+3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm).
+4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray.
+5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/)
+6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/)
+Note: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.
+Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?
+For this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed.
+This question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11.
+Exactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value.
+The data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)
+Normal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.
+Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?
+After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?
+(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)
+1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges.
+2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously.
+3--All prices are in USD.
+4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used.
+","Yes, No"
"Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?","As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field.
This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050?
For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made.
@@ -4217,6 +4740,11 @@ Data
These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):
2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)
",""
+"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.
+What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?
+This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.
+Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously.
+",""
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet.
@@ -4228,6 +4756,16 @@ For the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, su
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
",""
+"How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?","GPT stands for ""Generative Pre-Training"" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters.
+In May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3),
+The scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]
+In 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.
+If GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.
+If OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.
+In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:
+In your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?
+After 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as ""yes"".
+",""
"How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).
@@ -4252,11 +4790,6 @@ Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?
---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished.
ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively
","Yes, No"
-"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)
-There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.
-BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?
-After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.
-","Yes, No"
"How large will Monaco be in 2035?","[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)
With an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.
To continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)
@@ -4271,24 +4804,6 @@ Resolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Roy
The question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.
Resolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.
",""
-"Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),
-Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.
-From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),
-The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.
-In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.
-“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”
-The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef.
-From Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),
-a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.
-You can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).
-Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?
-This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:
----
-The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).
----
-Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.
-Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.
-","Yes, No"
"Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?","India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020.
In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1).
Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021?
@@ -4320,16 +4835,23 @@ Resolution
This question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).
",""
-"By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?","The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.
-That busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min)
-All very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916):
-This [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.
-More exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.
-Some extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).
-And there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):
-When US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.
-Funk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)
-","Yes, No"
+"What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?","Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”
+In 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.
+What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?
+This question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.
+Countries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table
+Inclusion Criteria:
+Countries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.
+Success Criteria:
+Countries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:
+---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment.
+---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality.
+Either of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.
+Carbon Neutrality Definition:
+This question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.
+If a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.
+If a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge.
+",""
"Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.
Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).
In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks:
@@ -4355,21 +4877,15 @@ How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete w
The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.
The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).
",""
-"When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?","Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.
-Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.
-Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.
-When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?
-This question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:
-1--
-Australia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.
-2--
-Australia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).
-3--
-Australia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.
-Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).
-If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).
-Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source.
-",""
+"Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?","OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [""When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.
+Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?
+This question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.
+The code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.
+This question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of ""Transformer derived"":
+Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a ""transformer"" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,
+Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?
+After one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer ""Yes"".
+","Yes, No"
"Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","With Donald Trump eligible for another term in office, there has been [speculation](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-theme-we-wuz-robbed-we-wont-robbed-again-aides-say-1553677) that he will run for president again in 2024, like Grover Cleveland who also [made a comeback](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/us/politics/trump-2024.html).
There has even been speculation by 538 that he [would be the favorite](https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/confidence-interval-if-trump-loses-in-2020-hell-be-the-nominee-again-in-2024/) for the GOP nomination in 2024. On the other hand, Congress could also [bar him from running again in this most recent US Senate trial](https://apnews.com/article/barring-trump-holding-office-again-f477c7ddc7ad0cc91a5fb86d12b007f0).
Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?
@@ -4380,37 +4896,27 @@ Reporting should be unambiguous, as determined by moderators. If there is doubt
What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?
The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.
",""
-"Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned.
-Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed?
-We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?
-Resolution is positive if, before the stipulated date,
-1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds:
-1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion.
-1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.
-1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions).
-1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure.
-AND
-2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases).
-*In case the term ""convicted"" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.
-","Yes, No"
"What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).
In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.
This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?
Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.
",""
-"How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background
-==========
-
-The number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education.
-With resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days.
-Going forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.
-How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
-In 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.
+"Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?","Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose.
+The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna.
+[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):
+For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.
+Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?
+Question resolves ""Yes"" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives?
+The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster.
+Question will resolve ""No"" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.
+Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for ""Yes"" or ""No"" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?","[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).
+When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?
+---Countries with 1M population size only.
+---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one.
+---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign).
+---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >.
",""
"Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?","The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male.
Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?
@@ -4423,13 +4929,6 @@ Resolution will be by credible media reports.
Old resolution criteria:
This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.
","Yes, No"
-"When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?","[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).
-When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?
----Countries with 1M population size only.
----Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one.
----Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign).
----If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >.
-",""
"What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).
The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.
This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?
@@ -4437,12 +4936,6 @@ In case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on Jan
The historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:
Year,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179
",""
-"Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?","[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)
-roughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.
-In [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.
-Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?
-This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.
-","Yes, No"
"On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?","According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.
As of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.
On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?
@@ -4450,39 +4943,6 @@ On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to C
Resolves to the earliest date on which ""Currently Hospitalized"" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).
If the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.
",""
-"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?","The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the ""Rassemblement National"" (far-right) party.
-In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.
-More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).
-Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?
-Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
-While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.
-The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
-Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
-When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?
-This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
-If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.
-",""
-"What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?","[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely:
----Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be ""commonplace"" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed.
----Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty ""with 99.9 per cent accuracy""
----The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour ""indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods"", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements.
----Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost ""error-free"" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth.
----Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become ""commonplace"" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study
----In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past
----Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century
----AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required
----Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying
-What percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)
-What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?
-In 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct.
-Examples:
----If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100.
----If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0.
----If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25.
-The term ""robotic judges"" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase ""Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying"" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be.
-",""
"Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?","The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.
Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:
---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/);
@@ -4495,6 +4955,37 @@ For the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10
The tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.
If the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened.
","Yes, No"
+"What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?","Background
+==========
+
+The [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy.
+“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”
+Consumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.
+Previous Questions:
+[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)
+What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?
+Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:
+[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)
+[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)
+[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)
+[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)
+[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)
+[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
+
+Resolution
+==========
+
+Predictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI.
+The resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).
+",""
+"When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
+While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.
+The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
+Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions
+When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?
+This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.
+If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.
+",""
"When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?","For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes.
This question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere?
For the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and ""self"") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness.
@@ -4504,11 +4995,76 @@ For the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both ali
When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?
The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.
",""
-"Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?","The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood.
-The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is ""in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.""
-The website further states that the project team ""expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.""
-Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?
-The question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
+"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
+The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
+The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
+What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?
+This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list.
+Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
+This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
+",""
+"When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?","As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" in the US as 34.7M.
+On what date will this number reach 100M?
+When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?
+The [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
+Resolves to the first date on which the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" at the above link is above 100M.
+If the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.
+",""
+"What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?","Context
+=======
+
+[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.
+Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019.
+January 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow.
+The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.
+Related questions:
+[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)
+[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)
+What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?
+Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:
+[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)
+[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)
+[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)
+[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)
+[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.
+",""
+"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?","[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.
+Moreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC).
+[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.
+For example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure.
+One way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world.
+However, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.
+[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...
+If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?
+The question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.
+This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
+1--
+[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+2--
+[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+3--
+[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+4--
+[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
+Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
+5--
+[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
+6--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
+7--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
+8--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
+9--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
+10-
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
+All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
","Yes, No"
"Will the UK government succeed in reducing its commitment to spend 0.7% of GNI on International aid?","The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, recently announced that the government will [reduce the amount of spend on international development from 0.7% of GNI to 0.5%.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55064019). This means that the UK government will spend £10bn on aid instead of £14bn.
The proposal generated significant cross-party controversy, with one Foreign Office Minister [resigning](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/nov/25/uk-foreign-aid-budget-cut-chancellor-announces) in protest.
@@ -4544,12 +5100,27 @@ Residents of Phobos and Deimos, or of satellites in orbit around either body, ar
In case political structures are substantially different, an admin may judge this question based on a different definitions of 'residence' that still captures the idea that it requires a person to have lived there for at least a relatively uninterrupted three years. [Ems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) don't count as humans.
Resolves ambiguous if neither body meets the criterion by 2100.
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.
-This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).
-The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.
-Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.
-What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?
-Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.
+"What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?","Background
+==========
+
+[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well.
+Data for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.
+Previous Questions:
+[Change in US Durable Goods Orders April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/)
+What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?
+Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:
+[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)
+[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)
+[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
+[Briefing](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)
+[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)
+[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)
+
+Resolution
+==========
+
+Predictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for May 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5.
+Historical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).
",""
"Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?","Related question: [Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/)
The United States Senate can expel any of its own members if some fraction (current law requires two thirds) of members vote to do so. No one else can do so before the Senator's term ends. Only 15 Senators have been expelled; many Senators prefer to resign.
@@ -4559,6 +5130,29 @@ This question resolves to Yes if, by February 1, 2023, an official record of Sen
""Senator"" means any properly-certified person who has taken the Senatorial oath prior to 2023. If a person is elected or appointed to the Senate, but is not sworn in, the person is not a Senator. If a person's Senate term has ended, that person is no longer a Senator; retroactive or posthumous expulsions would not resolve the question.
The question resolves to ambiguous if expulsion of a Senator by vote of other senators becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment eliminating the Senate would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an amendment changing the expulsion procedure would not.
","Yes, No"
+"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?","Context
+=======
+
+The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.
+The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.
+Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).
+Related questions:
+[Industrial Production Index March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/)
+[Industrial Production Index April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/)
+What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?
+Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:
+[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)
+[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)
+[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)
+[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)
+[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
+[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.
+",""
"When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?","[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.
As of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.
Therefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:
@@ -4584,14 +5178,6 @@ This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports about the
---
This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the resolution criterion is met.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?","Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.
-Polls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).
-Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?
----
-If Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.
----
-If any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.
-","Yes, No"
"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?","One dose vaccines also count.
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
@@ -4603,6 +5189,27 @@ Globally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in
Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?
This question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state.
","Yes, No"
+"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?
+A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind.
+Who will win?
+Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19.
+A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).
+Data sources and more information:
+---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website
+---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html)
+---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html)
+---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html)
+---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm)
+---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36)
+---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/)
+---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data)
+---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/)
+What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?
+We encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27.
+This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).
+",""
"Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).
At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.
He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).
@@ -4612,11 +5219,6 @@ This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or re
If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.
He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.
","Yes, No"
-"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan?
-A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind.
-Who will win?
-Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049.
-","Yes, No"
"Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?","Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.
Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?
A report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.
@@ -4702,6 +5304,22 @@ Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a Fr
So the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?
---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers.
","Yes, No"
+"Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).
+A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),
+Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.
+You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.
+Lesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.
+Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).
+Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?
+For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.
+1--
+The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.
+2--
+The patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.
+Alcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.
+If Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
+By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.
+","Yes, No"
"How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?","Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a ""serious, worldwide threat to public health"" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).
In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:
How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?
@@ -4712,22 +5330,6 @@ Related question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infection
Will this goal be realized?
The WHO publishes an annual report on malaria, in which they report on the previous year's mortality rate. This metric should be used to decide whether the goal has been reached.
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","Context
-=======
-
-The Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.
-The industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.
-Another important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).
-Related questions:
-[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)
-[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)
-What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.
-",""
"Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?","Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).
The current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him.
Hu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests.
@@ -4746,6 +5348,15 @@ Xi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) pa
---
Xi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.
","Yes, No"
+"Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life
+longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.
+Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?
+An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.
+For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects.
+This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).
+Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.
+If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.
+","Yes, No"
"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?
I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.
I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!).
@@ -4756,15 +5367,6 @@ This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of
Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent).
If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"".
",""
-"Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life
-longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.
-Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?
-An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.
-For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects.
-This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).
-Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.
-If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.
-","Yes, No"
"Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?","The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (""Core CPI"") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023.
The ""Core CPI"" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E).
Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?
@@ -4812,6 +5414,23 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImage
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
",""
+"Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?","US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):
+The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.
+US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):
+Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in ""organized terror attacks"" designed to tear down government institutions.
+“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.
+Unsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:
+While the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.
+In the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.
+However, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.
+The Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.
+So it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is:
+Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?
+---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days.
+---It must happen before 2022.
+---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election).
+---An ""official list is"" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency.
+","Yes, No"
"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).
Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.
What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?
@@ -4819,6 +5438,27 @@ This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close
Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL).
",""
+"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?","Context
+=======
+
+The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).
+Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.
+Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.
+Other Related Questions:
+[CPI-U March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/)
+[CPI-U April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/)
+What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?
+Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:
+[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)
+[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)
+[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)
+[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.
+",""
"When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.
Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.
In April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called ""Waymo One""; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.
@@ -4840,14 +5480,6 @@ Similar questions:
---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff.
---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken.
",""
-"Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?","From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),
-The end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?
-The chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.
-Swan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.
-As of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)
-Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?
-This question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
-","Yes, No"
"What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.
B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.
In response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.
@@ -4864,20 +5496,6 @@ on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that si
Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?
This resolves positive if Trump is indicted for obstruction of justice by December 31, 2025. It resolves positive regardless of the nature of the obstruction charge, e.g. it resolves positive even if the alleged obstruction is not related to Russia's 2016 election interference.
","Yes, No"
-"By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)).
-Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).
-In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.
-By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?
-This question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a ""single AI experiment"", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By ""single AI experiment"" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of ""architectures"". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment.
-By ""architectures"" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.
-Methodology
-The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1:
-When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training.
-If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:
-When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.
-In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.
-The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution.
-",""
"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.
The index is constructed as follows:
---
@@ -4897,6 +5515,20 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100.
",""
+"By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)).
+Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).
+In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.
+By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?
+This question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a ""single AI experiment"", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By ""single AI experiment"" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of ""architectures"". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment.
+By ""architectures"" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.
+Methodology
+The following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1:
+When we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training.
+If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:
+When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.
+In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.
+The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution.
+",""
"If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)
Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.
How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?
@@ -4908,11 +5540,6 @@ Other possible world:
---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/)
See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).
",""
-"By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?","What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is.
-I still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience.
-Fear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so.
-Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.
-","Yes, No"
"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:
""Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?""
The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.
@@ -4950,12 +5577,6 @@ Should Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't b
Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?
This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
-"Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),
-The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.
-Historical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).
-What will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?
-This question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.
-",""
"Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.
Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?
---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively.
@@ -5111,42 +5732,11 @@ For example:
---for Sep-2020 this value is:
If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?","Context
-=======
-
-The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.
-Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.
-[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.
-Because of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.
-It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.
-Other Related Questions:
-[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)
-[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)
-What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.
-",""
"How many emoji related court cases in 2021?","[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.
Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.
How many emoji related court cases in 2021?
Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.
",""
-"Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?","Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.
-2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [""gold standard""](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890).
-Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx).
-The ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen.
-The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.
-Over the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.
-The next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html).
-(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )
-Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?
-The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.
-For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.
-The question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.
-","Yes, No"
"The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015","In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend.
For this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015?
Here are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases:
@@ -5174,6 +5764,19 @@ The [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as o
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
",""
+"Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?","Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.
+2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [""gold standard""](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890).
+Revelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx).
+The ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen.
+The NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.
+Over the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.
+The next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html).
+(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )
+Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?
+The question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.
+For the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.
+The question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.
+","Yes, No"
"How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?","[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is
a meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.
Consumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.
@@ -5184,24 +5787,6 @@ Resolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat a
Growth will be calculated as where is ""Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year "" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).
Both figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.
",""
-"Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?","Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.
-In particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.
-Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?
-Resolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?","Background
-==========
-
-[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.
-[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.
-What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?
-
-Resolution
-==========
-
-Predictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.
-Historical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).
-",""
"What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?","Background
==========
@@ -5261,14 +5846,6 @@ A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases i
What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?
This question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.
",""
-"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
-The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
-The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
-What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?
-This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list.
-Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
-This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
-",""
"In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?","Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.
In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).
In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?
@@ -5310,11 +5887,25 @@ Resolution Criteria
Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available.
Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/)
","Yes, No"
+"Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.
+Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?
+For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.
+","Yes, No"
"Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?","The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?
This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.
","Yes, No"
+"Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?","Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.
+In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.
+[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.
+[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.
+The planet, however, remains to be found.
+If it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.
+Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?
+For this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.
+","Yes, No"
"What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?","Context
=======
@@ -5394,37 +5985,22 @@ This question resolves as the total dollar amount that the US Federal Government
11-Another place in the Solar System.
Resolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) does not resolve positive by 2050. If [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered.
",""
+"When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?","The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.
+The Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.
+When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?
+This question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:
+1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction);
+2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island;
+3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state;
+4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or
+5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists.
+The question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).
+",""
"When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?","For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console.
This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption.
Patents, announcements, and review units do not count.
*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.
",""
-"For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","Context
-=======
-
-[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.
-It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.
-The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.
-You can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)
-Due to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.
-With [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.
-Similar Questions:
-[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)
-[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)
-For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?
-Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:
-[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)
-[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
-[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)
-[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)
-[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)
-[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.
-",""
"How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?","For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the ""war on drugs"" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.
Psilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.
If the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [""Culture War""](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.
@@ -5436,24 +6012,6 @@ This question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Ti
If the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.
Admission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.
",""
-"Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?","Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target.
-In November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)
-Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.
-Background reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:
-1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm)
-2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/)
-3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm).
-4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray.
-5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/)
-6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/)
-Note: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.
-Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?
-For this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed.
-This question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11.
-Exactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value.
-The data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)
-Normal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy.
-","Yes, No"
"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?","Related questions:
[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)
[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)
@@ -5463,22 +6021,6 @@ When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?
This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).
If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.
",""
-"Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.
-Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?
-After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?
-(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)
-1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges.
-2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously.
-3--All prices are in USD.
-4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.
-Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.
-The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?
----This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held.
----It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise.
----In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously.
-","Yes, No"
"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.
Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.
What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?
@@ -5486,11 +6028,6 @@ This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close
Prices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL).
",""
-"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.
-What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?
-This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.
-Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously.
-",""
"What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?","Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.
What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?
This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.
@@ -5524,21 +6061,6 @@ This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or
The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.
In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.
","Yes, No"
-"How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?","GPT stands for ""Generative Pre-Training"" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters.
-In May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3),
-The scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]
-In 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.
-If GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.
-If OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.
-In case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:
-In your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?
-After 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as ""yes"".
-",""
-"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened.
-There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.
-Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?
-The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.
-","Yes, No"
"Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),
An assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.
The free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.
@@ -5556,6 +6078,11 @@ Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was pri
A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.
Admins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution.
","Yes, No"
+"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened.
+There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.
+Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?
+The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?","So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.
When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?
This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A ""flight"" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:
@@ -5565,10 +6092,6 @@ This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the Decemb
---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives.
This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.
",""
-"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.
-Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?
-This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.
-","Yes, No"
"Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [""on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S.
President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.
Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?
@@ -5581,6 +6104,10 @@ So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,6
Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.
If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.
","Yes, No"
+"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.
+Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?
+This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.
+","Yes, No"
"What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist.
After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).
What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?
@@ -5646,11 +6173,6 @@ Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per
This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?
Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.
","Yes, No"
-"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.
-On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?
-This question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.
-","Yes, No"
"Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?","During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time.
There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley.
The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd).
@@ -5660,22 +6182,12 @@ This question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Sin
"Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?","This will be ""True"" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word ""hydrino"", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word ""hydrino"". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.
The conjunction of Randell Mills with the word ""hydrino"" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.
","Yes, No"
-"What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?","Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”
-In 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.
-What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?
-This question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.
-Countries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table
-Inclusion Criteria:
-Countries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.
-Success Criteria:
-Countries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:
----The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment.
----At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality.
-Either of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.
-Carbon Neutrality Definition:
-This question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.
-If a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.
-If a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge.
+"When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.
+When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?
+This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.
+This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.
+Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).
+If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.
",""
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
@@ -5686,13 +6198,6 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImage
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
",""
-"When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.
-When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?
-This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.
-This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.
-Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).
-If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.
-",""
"Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?","[Harry Markopolos](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markopolos) is known for having reported the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme. Now he has put out a [report](http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2019/8/15/2019_08_15_GE_Whistleblower_Report.pdf) claiming that General Electric is conducting large-scale accounting [fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Electric#Fraud_allegations). Several analysts have defended GE, describing the report’s analysis as [uncompelling](https://www.barrons.com/articles/wall-street-comfortable-with-ges-accounting-shrugs-off-markopolos-report-51567525632) and [incorrect](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3496236-deutsche-bank-buying-ge-fraud-report). GE has denied these charges, and described Markopolos’ report as [market manipulation](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-accounts-ceo/ge-ceo-calls-markopolos-report-market-manipulation-and-false-idUSKCN1V525O) (Markopolos will [receive a cut](https://youtu.be/2VCtB3E0JB0?t=433) from trading profit from an unnamed hedge fund).
GE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) for accounting fraud.
Note that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter.
@@ -5703,37 +6208,12 @@ However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of
These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox.
By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox?
","Yes, No"
-"Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?","Related question on Metaculus:
-[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)
-Democrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).
-But who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?
-Senate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).
-(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, ""All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip."" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)
-Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?
-This question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.
-This question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.
-Question resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.
-Best source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.
-Alternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice.
+"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.
+On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""
+Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?
+This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.
+If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA.
","Yes, No"
-"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.
-Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?
-The question will resolve:
-1--Rishi Sunak
-2--Michael Gove
-3--Jeremy Hunt
-4--Priti Patel
-5--None of the above
-The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.
-If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
-",""
-"When will Russia become a democracy?","Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.
-When will Russia become a democracy?
-This question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.
-The resolution date is the date the report is published.
-The question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.
-If Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound.
-",""
"If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?","Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.
The $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).
If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?
@@ -5741,12 +6221,6 @@ The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol
If Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.
If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.
",""
-"Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?","The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.
-On 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""
-Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?
-This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.
-If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA.
-","Yes, No"
"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.
U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.
U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.
@@ -5772,15 +6246,6 @@ No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV
The aforementioned ""consensus"" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.
If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.
",""
-"Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?","OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [""When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.
-Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?
-This question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.
-The code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.
-This question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of ""Transformer derived"":
-Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a ""transformer"" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,
-Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?
-After one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer ""Yes"".
-","Yes, No"
"When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?","The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US.
Indefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.
President Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S.
@@ -5792,6 +6257,12 @@ When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?
This question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.
Closures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.
",""
+"What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021","The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.
+Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.
+What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021
+This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021.
+This question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.
+",""
"Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?","[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.
Rather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.
However, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.
@@ -5800,22 +6271,6 @@ Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?
This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.
This demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.
","Yes, No"
-"What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021","The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.
-Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.
-What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021
-This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021.
-This question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.
-",""
-"Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?","Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose.
-The effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna.
-[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):
-For both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.
-Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?
-Question resolves ""Yes"" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives?
-The relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster.
-Question will resolve ""No"" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.
-Question receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for ""Yes"" or ""No"" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.
-","Yes, No"
"Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?","While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.
In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.
So, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035?
@@ -5863,11 +6318,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---127 for the calendar year 2018
---275 for the calendar year 2019
",""
-"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?
-Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?
-The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.
-An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive)
-","Yes, No"
"What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","Context
=======
@@ -5903,13 +6353,6 @@ If any of the coins are spent in a way that's widely known to have been a hack,
This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?
Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)
",""
-"What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?","Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.
-New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.
-In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or ""instant runoff"" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.
-What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?
-This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%.
-Question resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46.
-",""
"When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.
However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.
Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.
@@ -5918,6 +6361,23 @@ When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?
This question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of ""oldest person to have lived"" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.
For example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.
",""
+"What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?","Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.
+New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.
+In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or ""instant runoff"" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.
+What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?
+This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%.
+Question resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46.
+",""
+"How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020.
+Health-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs.
+While unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.
+How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
+",""
"When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?","Related questions on Metaculus:
---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/)
---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/)
@@ -5935,55 +6395,31 @@ Positive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old ex
Positive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.
If it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.
",""
-"How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020.
-Health-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs.
-While unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.
-How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?
+"When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?","Context
+=======
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
+In June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).
+A month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).
+Lyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:
+The shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.
+If the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:
+Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.
+Since 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem.
-Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
-",""
-"What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?","Background
-==========
+Question
+========
-The [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy.
-“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”
-Consumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.
-Previous Questions:
-[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)
-What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?
-Alternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:
-[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)
-[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)
-[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)
-[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)
-[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)
-[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
+In order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?
Resolution
==========
-Predictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI.
-The resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).
-",""
-"Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?","Related questions on Metaculus:
----[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/)
----[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/)
----[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/)
-Many people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).
-Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?
-This question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.
-This question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?","In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
-The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
-The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
-What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?
-This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list.
-Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
-This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
+Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice.
+
+Related Questions
+=================
+
+---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/).
",""
"If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?","Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.
If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?
@@ -5993,18 +6429,6 @@ If no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolv
---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing.
---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier.
",""
-"When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?","As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" in the US as 34.7M.
-On what date will this number reach 100M?
-When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?
-The [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).
-Resolves to the first date on which the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" at the above link is above 100M.
-If the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.
-",""
-"What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3.
-As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).
-What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?
-Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).
-",""
"Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [""Will any festivals happen this summer?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:
In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.
@@ -6015,6 +6439,11 @@ If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees
If not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.
Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.
","Yes, No"
+"What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3.
+As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).
+What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?
+Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).
+",""
"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.
This question will resolve positively if:
---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and
@@ -6023,62 +6452,6 @@ This question will resolve ambiguously if:
---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021.
---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024.
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?","Context
-=======
-
-[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.
-Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019.
-January 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow.
-The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.
-Related questions:
-[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)
-[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)
-What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?
-Additional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:
-[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)
-[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)
-[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)
-[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)
-[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.
-",""
-"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?","[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.
-Moreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC).
-[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth.
-For example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure.
-One way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world.
-However, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.
-[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...
-If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?
-The question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.
-This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
-1--
-[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-2--
-[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-3--
-[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-4--
-[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
-Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
-5--
-[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
-6--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
-7--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
-8--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
-9--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
-10-
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
-All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
-","Yes, No"
"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.
The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high.""
On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?
@@ -6093,6 +6466,13 @@ Will the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be wort
Resolution
This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.
","Yes, No"
+"Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?","The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is ""to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI."" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the ""Human World Knowledge,"" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.
+Since 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more ""understanding"" and intelligence in general.
+The bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.
+We ask:
+In what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?
+Resolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.
+",""
"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?","Context
=======
@@ -6109,13 +6489,6 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.
",""
-"Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?
-Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?
-This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.
-If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).
-Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).
-This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.
-","Yes, No"
"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.
If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?
This question resolves:
@@ -6158,27 +6531,6 @@ Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019
How many countries will be considered ""full democracies"" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*
This prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as ""Full democracies"" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).
",""
-"What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19.
-A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).
-Data sources and more information:
----The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website
----[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html)
----[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html)
----[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html)
----[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm)
----[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36)
----[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/)
----[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data)
----[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/)
-What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?
-We encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27.
-This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).
-",""
-"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that
-Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one.
-Will Hanson win the bet?
-Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.
-","Yes, No"
"How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background
==========
@@ -6192,13 +6544,6 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.
",""
-"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country.
-The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.
-The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)
-Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?
-This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.
-It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.
-","Yes, No"
"Will AI progress surprise us?","What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)?
Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:
A party gaining decisive strategic advantage A single important ‘deployment’ event Other very sudden and surprising events
@@ -6238,22 +6583,6 @@ Before 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall
---Tesla
For the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of Gross World Product. Ratification means encoding the Windfall Clause within a institutional structure with external enforcement mechanisms (e.g. as a publicly-promulgated legal contract, as a Smart Contract on a Blockchain. Internal commitments without third-party arbiters will not suffice.)
","Yes, No"
-"Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).
-A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),
-Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.
-You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.
-Lesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.
-Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).
-Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?
-For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.
-1--
-The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.
-2--
-The patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.
-Alcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.
-If Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
-By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.
-","Yes, No"
"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).
Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).
This question asks:
@@ -6280,13 +6609,6 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).
",""
-"Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.
-Big pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.
-One way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.
-This question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?
-This question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.
-Importantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.
-","Yes, No"
"On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?","Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), ""about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden"". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.
Some other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.
Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?
@@ -6320,15 +6642,15 @@ Authoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019
What will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?
This prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).
",""
-"Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?","The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.
-This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
-This question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.
-","Yes, No"
"Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?","Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).
Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?
The question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.
The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.
","Yes, No"
+"Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?","The US supreme court currently has a fixed size of 9 members, but it [hasn't always been this way](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States#Size_of_the_court). It takes only an act of congress to change the size of the court. The president Franklin D. Roosevelt famously [failed to increase the size of the court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937) despite his party having a supermajority in congress.
+This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the size of the US Supreme Court has been changed by law by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
+This question closes 1 hour before any relevant law or constitutional amendment passes, or before any other legal action happens, that would induce a positive resolution.
+","Yes, No"
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?
@@ -6336,6 +6658,10 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th
GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
",""
+"Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?","The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.
+Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?
+This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.
+","Yes, No"
"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.
O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).
For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):
@@ -6376,45 +6702,6 @@ Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19
Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?
This question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?","US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):
-The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.
-US Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):
-Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in ""organized terror attacks"" designed to tear down government institutions.
-“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.
-Unsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:
-While the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.
-In the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.
-However, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.
-The Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.
-So it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is:
-Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?
----Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days.
----It must happen before 2022.
----It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election).
----An ""official list is"" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will the United States House of Representatives vote to formally discipline a House Member?","Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)
-The United States House of Representatives (""House"") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.
-Tensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.
-Democrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).
-Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?
-The question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.
-The question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).
-The question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.
-[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.
-""House Member"" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.
-Resolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).
-Note: A vote to remove a Member following an ""Election Contest"" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","Context
-
-Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.
-This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-
-This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.
-","Yes, No"
"When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?","On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.
[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?
If /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as ""> 2025-12-31"".
@@ -6428,19 +6715,27 @@ Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life
All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.
For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.
","Yes, No"
-"Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?","[The Suez Canal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) is an artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea through the Isthmus of Suez; and dividing Africa and Asia. The canal offers watercraft a more direct route between the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans via the Mediterranean and Red seas, thus avoiding the South Atlantic and southern Indian oceans and reducing the journey distance from the Arabian Sea to London, for example, by approximately 8,900 kilometres (5,500 mi). It extends from the northern terminus of Port Said to the southern terminus of Port Tewfik at the city of Suez. Its length is 193.30 km (120.11 mi) including its northern and southern access-channels. In 2012, 17,225 vessels traversed the canal (an average of 47 per day).
-At 07:40 Eastern European Time on 23 March 2021, the [Ever Given](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given), a Golden-class container ship, one of the largest in the world, was passing through the Suez Canal on its way to Rotterdam from Tanjung Pelepas when it ran aground, turned sideways and blocked the canal, causing the canal to be impassable, and significantly disrupting international shipping.
-As of 24 March 2021, eight tugboats are working to re-float the vessel in collaboration with diggers removing sand from the side of the canal where the vessel is wedged.
-When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?
-This question resolves as the time and date the Suez Canal becomes navigable by commercial shipping vessels, as reported by a major news organization (e.g. AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, etc.).
-ETA (26 March): Ships with a beam of at least 20 meters must be able to pass the canal for this question to resolve positively.
-",""
"How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf).
According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.
How much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.
",""
+"How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
+Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
+[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.
+How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
+This question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
+Details of the search query
+For the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the ""[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)"" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
+The [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
+Covers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.
+Running this query for previous years gives:
+---5,721 for the calendar year 2017
+---8,592 for the calendar year 2018
+---11,596 for the calendar year 2019
+---15,313 for the calendar year 2020
+",""
"When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]
[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.
The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.
@@ -6449,16 +6744,6 @@ When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?
Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.
Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
",""
-"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.
-There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:
----[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House.
----Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant.""
-While not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)
-The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).
-Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?
-This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.
-Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only.
-","Yes, No"
"What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?","Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.
This brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.
Most dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).
@@ -6469,6 +6754,15 @@ In the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in Decembe
The question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.
In case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.
",""
+"When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?","The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.
+This basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:
+Chickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]
+As of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler).
+When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?
+Resolution
+Companies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue ""Broiler"", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.
+This question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.
+",""
"What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?","Context
=======
@@ -6523,26 +6817,6 @@ The conjecture is significant because it implies the tightest possible error bou
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true by 2100?
This question will resolve positively if the Millennium Prize for the proof of the Riemann hypothesis is awarded before the resolve date of this question. It will resolve negatively if the Millennium Prize is awarded, according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), for the disproof of the Riemann hypothesis. It will resolve ambiguously if the Prize is not awarded for either achievement until the resolve date of the question, or if the Prize is awarded for a proof that the Riemann hypothesis is undecidable in ZFC set theory.
","Yes, No"
-"In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?","In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a ""[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)"".
-As of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.
-France has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).
-The Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).
-The Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming.
-Hungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).
-In Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.
-In January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic
-[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.
-In November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.
-In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?
-This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule.
-Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%.
-However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.
-When will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?
-This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.
-Since the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity.
-",""
"Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?","[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.
This question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?
Resolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.
@@ -6581,19 +6855,6 @@ Many contemporary thinkers have anticipated a massive ethical shift against the
This question resolves positively if a sovereign government (at the level of national, or an international government if one exists at the time) issues a formal apology for the poor treatment of farm animals in the past, specifically in reference to the fact that they were treated as property before January 1st 2200. Otherwise it resolves negatively.
For clarification, a sovereign government is defined as one that has ""the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies. In political theory, sovereignty is a substantive term designating supreme authority over some polity."" The United Nations does not count as a sovereign government.
","Yes, No"
-"Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?","On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.
-The spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:
-The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.
-Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.
-Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”
-If there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.
-Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?
-This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.
----The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered.
----The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation.
----Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation.
----If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution.
-","Yes, No"
"Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?","related questions on Metaculus:
---
[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)
@@ -6608,6 +6869,19 @@ Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?
This question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.
A qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long.
","Yes, No"
+"Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?","On December 16th, 2020 England’s health secretary, Matt Hancock, [announced](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) that a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 had been detected in the UK. Amid worries that the new variant may be more transmissible, PM Boris Johnson [announced new lockdowns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/19/world/europe/coronavirus-uk-new-variant.html) in London and England's southeast, including a ban on Christmas gatherings. The new variant is [said to account for 60%](https://www.vox.com/2020/12/19/22190874/uk-lockdown-tier-4-boris-johnson) of the infections in London.
+The spread of a new variant has [prompted concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/coronavirus-britain-variant.html) that a mutation in SARS-CoV-2 could lead to the currently approved vaccines and treatments becoming less effective. The [British Medical Journal](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) has the following to say about this possibility:
+The new variant has mutations to the spike protein that the three leading vaccines are targeting. However, vaccines produce antibodies against many regions in the spike protein, so it’s unlikely that a single change would make the vaccine less effective.
+Over time, as more mutations occur, the vaccine may need to be altered. This happens with seasonal flu, which mutates every year, and the vaccine is adjusted accordingly. The SARS-CoV-2 virus doesn’t mutate as quickly as the flu virus, and the vaccines that have so far proved effective in trials are types that can easily be tweaked if necessary.
+Peacock said, “With this variant there is no evidence that it will evade the vaccination or a human immune response. But if there is an instance of vaccine failure or reinfection then that case should be treated as high priority for genetic sequencing.”
+If there is a mutation and the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine must be updated, it is possible the United States CDC will start recommending revaccination with an updated vaccine. This question asks how likely that scenario is.
+Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?
+This question resolves positively if and only if before 2023 the United States CDC posts guidance on their [website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html) that those who have been vaccinated should get vaccinated again. The guidance must mention that one reason for revaccination is a mutation in SARS-CoV-2.
+---The guidance must recommend revaccination with a different vaccine than the one that was originally administered.
+---The guidance can mention more than reason for getting revaccinated so long as one of those reasons is mutation.
+---Currently, there are several approved vaccines that require a second booster shot. These booster shots do not count toward positive resolution because they are not for the purpose of immunizing against a mutation.
+---If the US CDC recommends that only a proper subset of those who are vaccinated get revaccinated due to a mutation, for example because one of the original vaccines remains effective against the new variant, this still counts toward positive resolution.
+","Yes, No"
"When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii).
This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.
The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a ""max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds"", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.
@@ -6640,12 +6914,6 @@ So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.o
This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).
This question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.
",""
-"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
-What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
-This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022.
-The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
-The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
-",""
"Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?","With an enormous amount of energy created per unit mass of fuel, cheap and abundance (e.g. deuterium) fuel, and relatively benign waste products, practical energy generation from nuclear fusion would be transformative for the world. A [number of questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:phys-sci--nuclear) relate to efforts in the US and Europe, but there is another major player in the field: China. As discussed in [this story](http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/20289/china-touts-fusion-progress-as-new-details-on-lockheed-martins-reactor-emerge), China is pouring significant resources into practical nuclear fusion. So we ask:
When practical nuclear fusion is developed, will it first be in China?
For these purposes we define ""practical"" as an operational high-temperature nuclear fusion reactor that can (a) produce a demonstrated positive energy balance exceeding 100 megawatts for more than one week, and (b) have a sustainable plan for long-term operations (e.g. no critical hard-to-replace components that would be radiation-damaged to inoperability in a matter of days or weeks, etc.) These are chosen to roughly match [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/).
@@ -6692,12 +6960,41 @@ Data: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transport
By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?
Resolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.
",""
+"Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?","The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)).
+AIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.
+HIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]
+According to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010.
+According to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.
+Since the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.
+Substantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).
+This question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?
+","Yes, No"
"When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level.
Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).
Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.
When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?
Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.
",""
+"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
+Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.
+What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?
+The index is constructed as follows:
+---
+We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index
+---
+The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100
+The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:
+Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).
+Historical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).
+This question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.
+Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
+A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
+---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months
+---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50
+If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100.
+",""
"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),
In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]
A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]
@@ -6726,6 +7023,14 @@ Additionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards pr
When will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?
This question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.
",""
+"When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?","[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.
+Since the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals.
+This question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?
+This question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.
+To qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.
+Changelog:
+---2020-09-16: the sentence ""The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts"" was changed to ""The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans"".
+",""
"When will there be at least one billion Americans?","[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020.
One Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.
As of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/)
@@ -6745,17 +7050,6 @@ Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the Mili
The question will resolve positively if the Supreme Court grants certiorari to hear NCFM v. Selective Service System or any other case challenging the constitutionality of the male-only draft between the date the question opens and the resolution. Evidence of certiorari granted can be provided via [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-coalition-for-men-v-selective-service-system/), reputable media sources, or official government sources. The case must directly challenge the male-only draft on the grounds of sex or gender discrimination, it does not have to be the only argument in the case but it must be a primary consideration in the case.
Positive resolution requires at least two of the following: NYT, WSJ, AP, Vox, WaPo, BBC, NPR to describe the case as being predominately a sex/gender discrimination case.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.
-In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.
-Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?
-This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).
-","Yes, No"
-"Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?","[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.
-Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.
-This question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?
-By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.
-To resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.
-","Yes, No"
"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?","Context
=======
@@ -6813,16 +7107,6 @@ In [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_
What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?
This question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","Markets and Markets reports that:
-“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”
-These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet.
-The EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.
-The compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.
-What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?
-Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022.
-Data:
-Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%
-",""
"What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?","According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.
This question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.
'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.
@@ -6873,6 +7157,20 @@ Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by prov
But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?
For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.
",""
+"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?","As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S.
+So far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.
+In a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development:
+---
+the Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.
+---
+AstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.
+---
+Novavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial
+---
+Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial
+How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?
+The FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.
+",""
"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.
An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.
@@ -6890,13 +7188,6 @@ Related questions:
---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/)
---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/)
",""
-"How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/).
-With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/).
-In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)
-How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?
-This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.
-Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).
-",""
"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.
[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.
[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.
@@ -6935,13 +7226,11 @@ What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientist
This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).
Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029.
",""
-"When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?","This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.
-[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).
-When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?
-This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).
-If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.
-If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.
-",""
+"Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?","As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.
+Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).
+Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?
+This question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.
+","Yes, No"
"When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.
When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?
This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.
@@ -6983,6 +7272,24 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.
",""
+"When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?","Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.
+In contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.
+Question Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:
+1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet)
+2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103)
+3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes)
+4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list.
+Resolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030.
+Specifics and Caveats:
+1--
+Multi-modal pre-training counts towards resolution.
+2--
+For text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.
+3--
+For image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.
+4--
+If [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.
+",""
"When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?","Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding).
In the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1). Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf). There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.).
Fortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis, in partnership collaboration with Tad Sonstegard and his Minnesota-based company Recombinetics, [used genome-editing to make cattle that don’t grow horns](https://innovativegenomics.org/blog/got-milk-a-kinder-cup-through-genome-editing/).
@@ -7023,11 +7330,6 @@ What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0
This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.
In case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.
",""
-"Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.
-Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?
-For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.
-","Yes, No"
"When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?","Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.
One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)
For a precise question we'll ask:
@@ -7041,19 +7343,6 @@ We are currently losing about one satellite per year due to collisions with spac
It is asked:
By 2050 will we have had a one year period in which we will have lost at least 10% of our operational satellites due to collisions with space junk?
","Yes, No"
-"What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","Context
-=======
-
-Every quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.
-You can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).
-The US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.
-What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.
-",""
"Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?","related questions on Metaculus:
---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/)
Beginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).
@@ -7109,13 +7398,6 @@ Resolution
This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other public valuations. Valuation will be calculated using the first publicly traded price determined through the SEC on opening day and the number of publicly offered shares to compute market capitalization. Public offerings in 2021 can come through IPOs, direct listings, SPACs, or any other legally recognized method. It will resolve negatively otherwise.
Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?
-New York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).
-As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.
-Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?
-This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.
-In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/)
-","Yes, No"
"When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?
This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.
",""
@@ -7139,17 +7421,17 @@ By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the ca
What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?
The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.
",""
+"What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).
+As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.
+Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?
+Resolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).
+",""
"The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?","Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).
Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years?
This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).
-As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.
-Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?
-Resolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).
-",""
"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.
While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.
The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:
@@ -7176,26 +7458,6 @@ Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1]
Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?
This resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?","Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.
-In early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.
-[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.
-[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.
-The planet, however, remains to be found.
-If it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.
-Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?
-For this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?","The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.
-The Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.
-When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?
-This question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:
-1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction);
-2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island;
-3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state;
-4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or
-5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists.
-The question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).
-",""
"What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?","[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984.
The Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year.
This question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?
@@ -7234,16 +7496,6 @@ Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed
How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
",""
-"Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?","The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.
-At the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).
-The medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:
-1--Number of Gold Medals
-2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals
-3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals
-The US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?
-Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?
-This question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.
-","Yes, No"
"How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?","Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015.
The Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species.
The Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)]
@@ -7257,32 +7509,6 @@ As such it shouldn't surprise one that ticket prices have been rising over the y
When will the average ticket price in US cinemas hit the $10 threshold?
This question will resolve positive when, a quarter after the respective box office year ends, [The Numbers](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) or another credible source reports an average annualised ticket price of ≥ US$10.
",""
-"When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?","Context
-=======
-
-In June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).
-A month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).
-Lyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:
-The shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.
-If the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:
-Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.
-Since 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem.
-
-Question
-========
-
-In order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?
-
-Resolution
-==========
-
-Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice.
-
-Related Questions
-=================
-
----A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/).
-",""
"For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?","Context
=======
@@ -7302,12 +7528,14 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.
",""
-"Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?","The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is ""to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI."" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the ""Human World Knowledge,"" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.
-Since 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more ""understanding"" and intelligence in general.
-The bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.
-We ask:
-In what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?
-Resolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.
+"When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?","In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).
+Since beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.
+However, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is ""not fit for purpose"" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.
+When will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?
+Resolution
+This question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.
+Resolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.
+If this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as ""> Oct 5, 2032"".
",""
"Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?","[Effective Altruism Global](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effective_Altruism_Global), abbreviated EA Global, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. [EA Global London 2021 is currently scheduled](https://www.eaglobal.org/events/london2021/) for 29-31 October 2021 in-person at The Brewery in London, UK.
It was previously scheduled for 30 October 2020 to 1 November 2020, but was postponed due to COVID (see [the Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4318/will-ea-global-london-2020-be-cancelled-or-rescheduled-due-to-covid-19/)).
@@ -7343,10 +7571,6 @@ This question resolves when Spotify data shows that this has happened. For examp
If it is known that this has never happened, then the question resolves as greater than the upper bound. This could happen if Spotify does not continue to exist.
If it is unknown whether this has ever happened, for instance because Spotify does not make these data available, then the question resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?","The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.
-Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?
-This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.
-","Yes, No"
"What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?","As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.
She has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes.
The oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old.
@@ -7364,10 +7588,6 @@ I consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to t
By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?
This question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.
","Yes, No"
-"What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?","Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).
-What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?
-What will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.
-",""
"Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?","Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including China, [the world's #1 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)
Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. China's goal was to reduce emissions by 60-65% per unit GDP by 2030. This means that the country plans to reduce the emissions intensity, or the [ratio of emissions to gross domestic product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emission_intensity), a measure that ties emissions goals to economic growth. If achieved, by 2030 China will emit around [13-14 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html), whereas today the country accounts for [10.6 gigatons per year, or 29.5% of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Current projections estimate that China will [better than meet its goal,](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) with 2030 emissions around 12-14 gigatons per year.
[Analysts say](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china.html) that China's goal is achievable, thanks to a decrease in coal use in the country. But the slowdown in emissions may not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 2 degrees C.
@@ -7382,6 +7602,11 @@ Currently, China is making [good progress](http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/china
Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?
This question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the Chinese government confirming that China has met its primary 2030 climate action goals of cutting emissions intensity by at least 60% below 2005 levels on or before January 1, 2030.
","Yes, No"
+"What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?","One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) ""the market value of all the final goods and services produced"". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources.
+One notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China).
+Denmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030?
+Resolution will be based on [World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true) estimates corresponding to the year 2030, with the exclusion of all dependent territories listed in [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_territory) at the time the World Bank estimates are released. If the Wikipedia article no longer exists but it is still reasonably clear which countries should be excluded from the criteria spelled out in that article, those will be the countries excluded for resolving the question. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously. If the World Bank stops publishing the dataset, the question will also resolve ambiguously.
+",""
"What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.
On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts:
The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...
@@ -7393,11 +7618,6 @@ Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)
---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/)
",""
-"What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?","One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) ""the market value of all the final goods and services produced"". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources.
-One notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China).
-Denmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030?
-Resolution will be based on [World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true) estimates corresponding to the year 2030, with the exclusion of all dependent territories listed in [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_territory) at the time the World Bank estimates are released. If the Wikipedia article no longer exists but it is still reasonably clear which countries should be excluded from the criteria spelled out in that article, those will be the countries excluded for resolving the question. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously. If the World Bank stops publishing the dataset, the question will also resolve ambiguously.
-",""
"Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the ""Conservatives"" or ""Tories"". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.
Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?
This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
@@ -7411,21 +7631,6 @@ In case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this quest
3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party.
If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.
","Yes, No"
-"How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
-Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
-[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.
-How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
-This question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
-Details of the search query
-For the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the ""[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)"" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
-The [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
-Covers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.
-Running this query for previous years gives:
----5,721 for the calendar year 2017
----8,592 for the calendar year 2018
----11,596 for the calendar year 2019
----15,313 for the calendar year 2020
-",""
"When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?","[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material.
The potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.
An early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.
@@ -7441,14 +7646,20 @@ a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.
When will be the next S&P 500 correction?
The S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.
",""
-"When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?","The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.
-This basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:
-Chickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]
-As of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler).
-When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?
-Resolution
-Companies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue ""Broiler"", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.
-This question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.
+"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
+Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
+Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).
+How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
+This question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
+Details of the search query
+For the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
+""Reinforcement Learning"", ""DQN"", ""Q-learning"", ""Deep Q Network"", ""Temporal difference learning"", ""Sarsa"", ""TD learning"" ""Proximal policy optimization""
+The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
+Running this query for previous years gives:
+---779 for the calendar year 2017
+---1,404 for the calendar year 2018
+---2,287 for the calendar year 2019
+---3,046 for the calendar year 2020
",""
"What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?","Background
==========
@@ -7490,6 +7701,16 @@ This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by
in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
",""
+"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
+The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable.
+As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is
+kNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.
+An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.
+What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?
+This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
+",""
"Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [""every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.
Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?
This will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021.
@@ -7534,15 +7755,6 @@ Data sources and more information:
What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?
This question will resolve as the total number of adult plus pediatric previous day admissions with confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Service’s [report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) for the dates from 2021-03-22 to 2021-03-28, corresponding to the number of hospitalizations from 2021-03-21 to 2021-03-27. Daily updates are [provided by the Department of Health and Human Services](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state). The total previous day admissions is computed using two variables in this report: previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed and previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed and stored in Lehigh University's Computational Uncertainty Lab Github [data repository](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). This report, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).
",""
-"Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?","The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)).
-AIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.
-HIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]
-According to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010.
-According to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.
-Since the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.
-Substantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).
-This question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?
-","Yes, No"
"Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?","Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district.
Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions.
There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.
@@ -7550,34 +7762,6 @@ Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?
This question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.
Resolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous.
","Yes, No"
-"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
-Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.
-What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?
-The index is constructed as follows:
----
-We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index
----
-The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100
-The following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:
-Object detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).
-Historical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).
-This question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.
-Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
-A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
----At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months
----The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50
-If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100.
-",""
-"When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?","[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.
-Since the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals.
-This question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?
-This question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.
-To qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.
-Changelog:
----2020-09-16: the sentence ""The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts"" was changed to ""The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans"".
-",""
"When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?","A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.
In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.
This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
@@ -7608,20 +7792,6 @@ This question asks: On or before January 1 2025, will any full Member State of t
Note that this question does not apply to Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, Vatican City, Kosovo, Montenegro, or any states that come to be Eurozone members after February 10 2019; only those expressly listed in the paragraph above. This question also does not apply to the overseas territories of countries which have agreements to use the euro (Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands, and Saint-Barthélemy.)
Resolution is by citation of a press release from the Government or Central Bank of any of the relevant countries, or by credible media reports in the financial press, to the effect that the relevant country actually starts the process of phasing out the Euro as its official currency before 2025, and replacing it with either an existing currency (including but not limited to the US dollar, British pound, Japanese Yen and other reserve currencies extant as of 2019) or introducing (or re-introducing) a national currency of its own. A decision to temporarily leave the Eurozone for a fixed period or until certain conditions are met shall also suffice for a positive resolution.
","Yes, No"
-"How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?","As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S.
-So far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.
-In a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development:
----
-the Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.
----
-AstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.
----
-Novavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial
----
-Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial
-How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?
-The FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.
-",""
"Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?","For a mostly hairless, fangless species that was likely reduced to [just a few thousand members](https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/10/22/163397584/how-human-beings-almost-vanished-from-earth-in-70-000-b-c) in relatively recent times by a volcano, we've certainly been busy.
The human population on Earth now exceeds 7 billion. And we're still growing. [Not everyone](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4rvuueqs3vI) is thrilled by this. But it's reality.
Currently, as of Q2 2018, Tokyo, Japan is the world's largest metropolis, cramming [over 38,000,000 people](https://www.worldatlas.com/citypops.htm) (give or take) into its borders.
@@ -7641,29 +7811,6 @@ Will the first female president of the United States enter office as a Republica
For a positive resolution, the first female president of the United States must be registered as a Republican on the date she is sworn in as president. She need not be directly elected to the office; succeeding to the presidency also counts.
If there is no female president of the United States before January 1 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?","As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.
-Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).
-Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?
-This question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?","Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.
-In contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.
-Question Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:
-1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet)
-2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103)
-3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes)
-4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list.
-Resolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030.
-Specifics and Caveats:
-1--
-Multi-modal pre-training counts towards resolution.
-2--
-For text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.
-3--
-For image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.
-4--
-If [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.
-",""
"Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?","The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.
This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
This question can be resolved at any time.
@@ -7706,6 +7853,25 @@ Fahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of h
This question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge?
If for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published.
",""
+"Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?","Context
+=======
+
+A von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called ""Universal Assemblers."" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.
+In theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed.
+If a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way.
+It has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an ""average cruising speed"" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales.
+
+Question
+========
+
+Will a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?
+
+Resolution
+==========
+
+A spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature.
+For positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.
+","Yes, No"
"Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?","As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence.
An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example.
Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.)
@@ -7714,15 +7880,6 @@ Resolution is by credible assessment of world GDP in constant US dollars (or oth
This question will resolve positively if world output doubles in a period of 4 years or less before 2050. It resolves negatively otherwise, i.e. if the following related question resolves ambiguously:
---[Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/)
","Yes, No"
-"When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?","In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).
-Since beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.
-However, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is ""not fit for purpose"" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.
-When will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?
-Resolution
-This question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.
-Resolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.
-If this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as ""> Oct 5, 2032"".
-",""
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
@@ -7740,21 +7897,6 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---2,287 for the calendar year 2019
---3,046 for the calendar year 2020
",""
-"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
-Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
-Reinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).
-How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
-This question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
-Details of the search query
-For the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
-""Reinforcement Learning"", ""DQN"", ""Q-learning"", ""Deep Q Network"", ""Temporal difference learning"", ""Sarsa"", ""TD learning"" ""Proximal policy optimization""
-The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
-Running this query for previous years gives:
----779 for the calendar year 2017
----1,404 for the calendar year 2018
----2,287 for the calendar year 2019
----3,046 for the calendar year 2020
-",""
"When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?","In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).
Since then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).
When, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?
@@ -7775,16 +7917,6 @@ How much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calend
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.
",""
-"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
-The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable.
-As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is
-kNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.
-An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.
-What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?
-This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
-",""
"Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
@@ -7800,25 +7932,6 @@ This question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?
Question resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.
This question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.
",""
-"Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?","Context
-=======
-
-A von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called ""Universal Assemblers."" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.
-In theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed.
-If a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way.
-It has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an ""average cruising speed"" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales.
-
-Question
-========
-
-Will a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?
-
-Resolution
-==========
-
-A spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature.
-For positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.
-","Yes, No"
"What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?","Context
-------
@@ -7878,19 +7991,6 @@ Question: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site
The obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.
I included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.
","Yes, No"
-"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
-In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
-The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
-The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
-What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?
-This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2021 TOP500 list.
-Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
-This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
-",""
-"Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.
-Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?
-This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.
-","Yes, No"
"How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
@@ -7906,6 +8006,15 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---3,726 for the calendar year 2018
---5,390 for the calendar year 2019
",""
+"What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
+In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.
+The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.
+The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).
+What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?
+This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2021 TOP500 list.
+Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it.
+This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark.
+",""
"When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.
Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.
(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))
@@ -7916,6 +8025,10 @@ Related questions:
---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.
",""
+"Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.
+Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?
+This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.
+","Yes, No"
"When will Croatia adopt the euro?","Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back.
This question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro?
This question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time.
@@ -7989,6 +8102,30 @@ Resolution
Estimates should come from credible organisations, such as the [International Platform of Insects for Food & Feed Association (IPIFF)](http://ipiff.org/), or other EU-affiliated organisations or academic publications by researchers without livestock-feed related commercial affiliations.
In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.
",""
+"What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?","Context
+=======
+
+[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.
+Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019.
+January 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow.
+The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.
+Related questions:
+[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)
+[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)
+What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April
+",""
+"When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?","In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry.
+In recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the ""[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/)."" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.
+To add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/).
+How much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were ""very achievable.""
+When will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?
+This question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.
+",""
"When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level?","Last September, the then-3 year old Russian chess whiz, Misha Osipov, played a [televised game](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNm72VY6yfU) against former world champion, Anatoly Karpov. Although the toddler lost, he acquitted himself well, according to chess journalists.
Earlier this year, Misha took down chess Grandmaster, [Yuri Averbakh](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slLUZVqRuOY), in a game. While Averbakh is 95, and commentators noted that he made several obvious blunders, the very fact that a 4 year old could even challenge him was pretty amazing.
This [article](https://www.theringer.com/sports/2017/12/20/16796672/chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-bobby-fischer) by The Ringer puts Misha's accomplishments in context:
@@ -8002,6 +8139,14 @@ Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future
Question will resolve positively if any of the charities on [Charity Entrepreneurship: Incubated Charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubated-charities.html) are in [ACE: Top and Standout charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) by Jan 1, 2022.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
","Yes, No"
+"Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?","[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.
+The scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.
+Compared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.
+The INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.
+To date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.
+As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.
+This question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?
+","Yes, No"
"Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?","Context
=======
@@ -8038,6 +8183,14 @@ Will California Gov Gavin Newsom have a recall effort reach the signature thresh
This question resolves positive if the California Secretary of State certifies that a recall petition has reached the 1,495,709 signatures needed to trigger a recall. This question is for any recall effort which is sucessfully submitted by March 31, 2022, even if the current petition does not reach the required signatures.
The counting of the signatures and verification may take longer than March 31, 2022 to be confirmed.
","Yes, No"
+"Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),
+A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.
+The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),
+widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.
+Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
+A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.
+This question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.
+","Yes, No"
"If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?","If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?
This question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/).
If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology:
@@ -8071,6 +8224,10 @@ Data:
Data on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires.
Historical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.
",""
+"Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?","The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.
+Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?
+This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.
+","Yes, No"
"What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?","The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).
Note how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.
What will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?
@@ -8099,29 +8256,69 @@ In accordance with ICAO practice, ""passengers"" means passenger-flights, ie, th
---
Resolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022.
",""
+"When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).
+On March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).
+This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):
+import pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(""https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv"") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution)
+",""
+"When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?","At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.
+A [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]
+The question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?
+The question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.
+",""
+"Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?","What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?
+Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?
+We will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.
+If one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken.
+If it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved.
+If there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count.
+The maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399.
+",""
+"When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?","After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?
+The question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.
+",""
"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)
According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.
Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?
Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?
The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period.
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?","Context
+"What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?","Context
=======
-[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.
-Greatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019.
-January 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow.
-The level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.
-Related questions:
-[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)
-[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)
-What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?
+The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.
+Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.
+[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.
+Because of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.
+It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.
+Other Related Questions:
+[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)
+[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)
+What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?
Resolution Criteria
===================
-The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April
+The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",""
+"Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
+There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.
+In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans)
+Will ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?
+Resolution
+For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?","Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.
+The World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/).
+Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?
+This question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:
+---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/).
+---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.)
+---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the ""WSOP 2021 Main Event"" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/).
+---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants).
+This question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.
+Note that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated ""Main Event"" is played live.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?","When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the ""New world"" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.
It may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.
When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?
@@ -8130,11 +8327,30 @@ If it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolv
If the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.
Because of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.
",""
+"Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?","Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.
+Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.
+Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
+This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.
+","Yes, No"
"Will Metaculus exist in 2030?","Due to the fact that some of Metaculus' questions (and some of the most interesting/important ones for that) are extremely long-term, some users have expressed concern that Metaculus will not be around for resolution. While whether Metaculus will be around to resolve very long-term questions may not be of direct interest to predictors, as it does not really make sense to predict with points in mind if those points are decades away anyway, it would still be interesting to get a sense of what the probability is that Metaculus will be around in a couple of decades time.
Therefore, it is asked:Will Metaculus still be operating on January 1st 2030?
A positive resolution does not require the site to still operate at [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) in 2030, but it does require a degree of continuity with the current version of Metaculus so that no more than 1% of all predictions ever made may have been lost from players' point calculating process and no more than one percent of once opened questions may have been lost.
Due to the nature of this question the best point optimizing prediction would be 99%, no matter of the real probability of Metaculus existing in 2030, as a non-existent Metaculus cannot make you lose points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.
","Yes, No"
+"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
+Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.
+However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
+The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
+Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?
+What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?
+This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.
+As of writing this question, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.
+This question resolves ambiguously if the S&P500 modifies its sector definition substantially. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if after such a modification, either:
+---
+Companies amounting to >25% of either the IT or Communications sectors by market cap that were previously in either sector are removed
+---
+Companies amounting to >25% of of either the IT or Communications sectors that were previously not in either sector are added
+",""
"When will the UK hold its next general election?","---
The UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.
---
@@ -8154,6 +8370,11 @@ Governments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the
When will the UK hold its next general election?
This question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.
",""
+"When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?","The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .
+When will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?
+This question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.
+In case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.
+",""
"What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?","Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.
Solar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.
According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).
@@ -8161,12 +8382,31 @@ What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale
Resolution
This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.
",""
-"When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?","In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry.
-In recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the ""[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/)."" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.
-To add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/).
-How much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were ""very achievable.""
-When will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?
-This question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.
+"When will the first cloned human be born?","In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.
+The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as ""somatic cell nuclear transfer."" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:
+[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.
+They've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...
+(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: ""given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day."")
+On the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now.
+When do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.
+",""
+"What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?","Context
+=======
+
+The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.
+Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.
+[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.
+Because of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.
+It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.
+Other Related Questions:
+[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)
+[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)
+What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",""
"What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?","Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.
What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?
@@ -8187,6 +8427,13 @@ Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?
This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.
If the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.
","Yes, No"
+"If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?","The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.
+The UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).
+If, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?
+Judgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).
+See also:
+---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/)
+",""
"How many of the ""priority paths"" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?","[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).
Much of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as ""one of [the] highest-impact options"" for those who have ""the potential to excel"" in those paths.
In 2020, the priority paths are:
@@ -8220,6 +8467,19 @@ Hence, with the exception of the dotcom bubble, we have arguably have not seen s
Will the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpass 30% for a three consecutive month period by the end of 2024?
This resolves positively if the average sector weighting of the IT industry of the S&P500 surpasses 30% for either a three consecutive month period or a 90 consecutive days period, before the end of 2024. For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the current weightings of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY).
","Yes, No"
+"When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?","Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:
+---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1),
+---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/),
+---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)),
+---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887).
+According to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.
+In 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.
+When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.
+Data
+[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
+",""
"When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?","The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour.
In terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00.
Joe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/).
@@ -8234,11 +8494,6 @@ Will the control problem be solved before the creation of Artificial General Int
The question will resolve as Positive if expert consensus is that the control problem is solved before AGI arrival, and will resolve as Negative if AGI happens before such a consensus.
Note this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in the case of a slow take-off, the control problem is solved before ASI but after AGI, the question still resolves as Negative.
","Yes, No"
-"When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?","Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).
-When will China become a democracy?
-This question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.
-This question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.
-",""
"When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?","While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.
Various officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.
[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated ""as early as April"":
@@ -8259,6 +8514,13 @@ I thus ask to what extent revival will be possible for people preserved in the n
What percentage of people who were initially cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?
""Revival"" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.
",""
+"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.
+This question asks:
+Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?
+This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.
+If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.
+2 February clarification: A ""significant reduction in immunity"" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.
+","Yes, No"
"Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?","Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.
One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common [public-key](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public-key_cryptography) encryption (and signature) scheme, [RSA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_(cryptosystem)), relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, [DSA signatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Signature_Algorithm) and [Diffie–Hellman key exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffie%E2%80%93Hellman_key_exchange), are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)
For a precise question we'll ask:
@@ -8296,6 +8558,38 @@ If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.
If the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.
For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.
",""
+"Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?","We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a ""the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years."" The research suggests that ""the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000."" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.
+Given that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:
+Will any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?
+This question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)
+","Yes, No"
+"How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?","The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.
+What will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?
+If [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.
+",""
+"How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?","The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.
+The [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:
+1--
+The race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.
+2--
+Attention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.
+3--
+A major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.
+4--
+In response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.
+5--
+One of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.
+6--
+DeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold.
+7--
+Facebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision.
+8--
+NVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.
+How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?
+Only prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.
+Resolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.
+The question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.
+",""
"Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?","In 1968 the First Grand Coalition of the Federal Republic of Germany passed the [German Emergency Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Emergency_Acts), changing, adding or removing more than two dozen paragraphs in their Basic Law (constitution). These would allow the federal government to limit basic rights and liberties as well as freedom of movement, enforce federal law on the states, use of armed forces within Germany to put down insurgencies, and so forth. At the same time, and to assuage worries of critics, the act also introduced the right to resist, which granted the ""right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order if no other remedy is available.""
All this was necessary due to Germany’s problematic history with emergency acts and enabling acts, in particular during the [Weimar Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weimar_Republic) and [the consequences that followed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_Germany).
As such the emergency powers granted by the German Emergency Act were handled very carefully by current and past governments. For instance: Only under need of substantial help in catastrophic circumstances like the 1997 Oder Flood were soldiers ever deployed within German borders.
@@ -8332,6 +8626,14 @@ For example:
---for Sep-2020 this value is:
If these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.
",""
+"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
+Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
+[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
+What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?
+This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
+GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
+The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
+",""
"Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?","In [a recent press release](https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html) the Volkswagen Group announced an expansion of their efforts in electric mobility, announcing a shift in their aims from 15 to 22 million vehicles produced in the next decade, CO2 neutrality by 2050, construction of hundreds of charging stations across Europe, and others.
For this the Volkswagen Group established a [modular platform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform), which should enable them to achieve these numbers. Different brands of the VW group like Porsche, Audi, Škoda, and Seat are already making use of and building models with the MEB, set to be sold come 2020.
Let’s check one of their (cl)aims with this prediction.
@@ -8341,14 +8643,6 @@ Resolution conditions:
---""By 2030"" sets the deadline’s last day on 2029-12-31
---If Volkswagen Group’s subsidiaries (Audi, Lamborghini, Ducati, Bentley Motors, Bugatti Automobiles, MAN SE, Porsche, Porsche Holding, Scania, SEAT, Škoda Auto, Volkswagen, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Volkswagen, Marine, TRATON, Here) change significantly (they added or removed subsidiaries had a >100k unit production in the previous year), the question resolves ambiguous.
","Yes, No"
-"Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?","[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.
-The scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.
-Compared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.
-The INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.
-To date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.
-As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.
-This question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?
-","Yes, No"
"How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?","One dose vaccines also count.
How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?
Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion®ion=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).
@@ -8384,14 +8678,6 @@ Related questions:
- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)
- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)
",""
-"Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),
-A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.
-The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),
-widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.
-Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
-A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.
-This question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.
-","Yes, No"
"When will the first baby be born away from Earth?","This question simply asks:
When will the first baby be born away from Earth?
The question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at >2120.
@@ -8439,6 +8725,16 @@ Considering all of these conflicting factors, go ahead and second-guess Pew's pr
What will the portion of the global population identifying as ""religiously unaffiliated"" be in 2050?
The resolution occurs if/when a study of comparable quality, scope, and methods to the [Pew study](http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/01/global-religion-full.pdf) is published before 2060 quoting a number for ""religiously unaffiliated"" pertaining to some date within 3 years of 2050. Note that this group includes atheist and agnostic, but also people who do not identify with any particular religion in surveys (but who may nonetheless have non-specific spiritual or cultural belief systems).
",""
+"Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?","Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life.
+Galileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface.
+Two upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans.
+Question is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).
+The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.
+What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
+---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in.
+",""
"Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?","Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question).
Whereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.
It is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?
@@ -8450,6 +8746,15 @@ This question asks:
Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050?
Resolution will be by credible media reports. Only deliberate nuclear attacks by nations count for the purpose of resolution. Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.
","Yes, No"
+"At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.
+One of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.
+At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of ""Top Charity"" and a type of work of ""Reducing Wild Animal Suffering""?
+","Yes, No"
+"Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?","Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).
+According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.
+Will we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?
+This question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.
+","Yes, No"
"Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?","As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.
(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)
1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62
@@ -8478,6 +8783,15 @@ This question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned compa
For a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).
Resolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.
","Yes, No"
+"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
+[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases.
+[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.
+As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set.
+What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?
+This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2021-06-14.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.
+In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
+",""
"Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?","In this year so far, scientists have recorded [more than 74,000 fires in Brazil](http://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br/queimadas/portal/situacao-atual). That's nearly double 2018's total of about 40,000 fires. The surge marks an 83 percent increase in wildfires over the same period of 2018, [Brazil's National Institute for Space Research reported](https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-rainforest-experiencing-record-number-of-wildfires-this-year-2019-8?international=true&r=US&IR=T).
Natural disasters like fires and tropical storms are an increasingly common cause of deforestation, especially as climate change makes these more frequent and severe.
In 2016, a sharp increase in forest fires stoked record losses in global forest cover equivalent to the area of New Zealand[[1](https://phys.org/news/2017-10-forest-contributed-global-tree-loss.html)], according to [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute).
@@ -8509,6 +8823,22 @@ Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](
On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?
This question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.
","Yes, No"
+"What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?","Context
+-------
+
+Given that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle.
+The [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).
+In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z).
+Accurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).
+At present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:
+What will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?
+For context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).
+
+Resolution Criteria
+-------------------
+
+The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.
+",""
"When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?","The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question.
This question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics).
",""
@@ -8516,6 +8846,21 @@ This question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia artic
This question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not have to be one manufactured by [Neuralink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink), and it does not need to be available to any member of the general public or approved by regulatory agencies.
The question resolves as >2040 if Elon Musk is still alive on the 1st of January, 2040, and Elon Musk did not have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain before this date. The question resolves ambiguous if Elon Musk does not have a device implanted and passes away before the end of the calender year 2040.
",""
+"What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?","The [C-band](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)) is radio waves of frequencies roughly from 3.7 to 8.0 gigahertz. In recent years, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has moved to clear C-band spectrum for 5G usage, transitioning those airwaves from their current use by communication satellites, to 5G cellular networks [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wireless/fcc-adopts-rules-to-auction-spectrum-for-5g-backs-9-7-billion-in-satellite-payments-idUSKCN20M2L9) [[2]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)#C-Band_Alliance). The FCC will have a [spectrum auction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectrum_auction) scheduled to start on December 8, 2020 (Auction 107), to auction off rights to transmit signals in the 3.7 – 3.98 GHz band.
+Some significant past auctions were ""Auction 73: 700 MHz Band"" in 2008 for a transition from analog TV broadcasting to digital broadcasting, with $19.6 billion in winning bids for 62 megahertz of spectrum, and ""Auction 103: Spectrum Frontiers – Upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz"" in 2020 Q1, with $7.6 billion in net bids for 3400 megahertz of millimeter-wave spectrum. ""Auction 107: 3.7 GHz Service"" will have 280 megahertz of spectrum for auction.
+Note that while some news articles report the net proceeds for a particular auction, this questions asks for the net bids (the statistics have the relation: net proceeds = net bids - incentive payments for existing licensees). The incentive payments for Auction 107 are [up to $15 billion](https://spacenews.com/fcc-sets-december-c-band-auction-offers-up-to-14-7-billion-for-satellite-operators/).
+What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?
+Resolution is by an FCC [news release](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-363000A1.pdf) or [public notice](https://www.fcc.gov/auction/103/releases) of the net bids of Auction 107.
+",""
+"Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?","As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.
+However, we cannot rest easy.
+As The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:
+Are we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps.
+A special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.
+How long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?
+Can we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030?
+For these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?","Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).
[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.
Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.
@@ -8556,6 +8901,26 @@ We will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a
Resolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source.
Inspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars.
",""
+"When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?","Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.
+Fast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.
+The question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?
+Resolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).
+",""
+"How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
+[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
+Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
+AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).
+How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?
+This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
+Details of the search query
+For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in ""all fields"" (i.e. the abstract and title):
+""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction""
+The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
+Running this query for previous years gives:
+---80 for the calendar year 2017
+---127 for the calendar year 2018
+---275 for the calendar year 2019
+",""
"When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.
However, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.
The United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):
@@ -8584,6 +8949,28 @@ the question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14
positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation
If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.
",""
+"When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?","In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely.
+When will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle?
+Autopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be ""at fault"" or not (as this may ambiguous.)
+Note: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.
+",""
+"What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?","Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet.
+However, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.
+[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels).
+Data: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.
+What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?
+Resolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.
+",""
+"Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?","The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality.
+Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?
+This question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?","In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.
+The question is:
+When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?
+The date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%.
+For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as ""passenger car"", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.
+",""
"PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.
According to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world:
The target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).
@@ -8637,6 +9024,31 @@ It defines a runtime environment affording all competing models the same algorit
It is included in the [Social Sciences Citation Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Sciences_Citation_Index).
The question resolves ambiguously if Social Sciences Citation Index is discontinued prior to the above criteria being met.
","Yes, No"
+"Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)
+Wild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.
+For the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.
+1--
+At least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.
+2--
+Legislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.
+3--
+There are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, ""a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.""
+4--
+A protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.
+5--
+A major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.
+6--
+Brian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.
+","Yes, No"
+"A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028","According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.
+Last year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.
+[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .
+According to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.
+The reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.
+Freedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.
+What will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?
+This number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.
+",""
"What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?","For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.
Yet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called ""third-party candidates"" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.
What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?
@@ -8657,10 +9069,44 @@ A survey from the Morning Consult reveals that fewer than 30% of survey particip
Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
For the purpose of this question, a network is said to have ""projected"" a winner if they make some authoritative statement saying that the candidate has won the election, or will win the election once the votes are counted. Crucially, the network does not actually have to use the language of ""projected"" but as long as their reporting follows this definition, it counts as a projection.
","Yes, No"
-"Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?","The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.
-Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?
-This question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.
-","Yes, No"
+"When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?","Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016.
+Heavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.
+Ununennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.
+When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?
+Resolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.
+For example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).
+",""
+"What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?","Context
+-------
+
+Solar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.
+[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields.
+Robert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:
+“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.""
+Peak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity.
+During periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming).
+What will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+-------------------
+
+Question resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.
+",""
+"How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?","According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/).
+How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?
+Resolution
+This question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query:
+Regions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: ""Producing Animals/Slaughtered""
+Forecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.
+",""
+"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
+The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.
+As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)).
+An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.
+What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?
+This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+",""
"What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","Parallel question for: [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).
The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The [Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project)](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with [the new mink coronavirus strain](https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus).
What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
@@ -8677,6 +9123,58 @@ If no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first e
---
Estimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal.
",""
+"When will the world have reached peak Facebook?","Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.
+While there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.
+But while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:
+When will the world have reached peak Facebook?
+For the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.
+",""
+"How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)).
+The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):
+The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.
+Tesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.
+How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.
+Data
+According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:
+2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.
+",""
+"When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?","The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?
+While seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.
+Define an emigration crisis as:
+---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours.
+When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?
+To operationalize this further,
+---
+For something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.
+---
+If >50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users.
+We ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.
+On the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with >50 predictions, is in the past:
+With 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date.
+With a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.
+With 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.
+If the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to >December 31st, 2030.
+The question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution.
+All times in American Eastern Time.
+",""
+"Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?","In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared ""commercially extinct"", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.
+Then, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.
+Hope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.
+Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?
+A few fine points:
+---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31.
+---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not).
+---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution.
+---""Available"" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?","What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?
+This question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).
+If Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.
+Note that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).
+This is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).
+",""
"Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered ""under serious threat"" by 2040?","In 2008, science fiction author, Robert Silverberg, penned a provocative web essay, [The Death of Galium](https://web.archive.org/web/20080704170435/http://www.asimovs.com/_issue_0806/ref.shtml), that predicted that we would collectively run out of several essential, rare elements within a single decade. Per Silverberg:
The element gallium is in very short supply and the world may well run out of it in just a few years. Indium is threatened too, says Armin Reller, a materials chemist at Germany’s University of Augsburg. He estimates that our planet’s stock of indium will last no more than another decade. All the hafnium will be gone by 2017 also, and another twenty years will see the extinction of zinc. Even copper is an endangered item, since worldwide demand for it is likely to exceed available supplies by the end of the present century.
Silverberg's dire fears have not (yet!) come to pass, but the [American Chemical Society (ACS)](https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/greenchemistry/research-innovation/research-topics/endangered-elements.html) has identified 44 elements that ""face supply limitations in the coming years."" Those considered by the ACS ""under serious threat"" over the next century include: silver, zinc, hafnium, gallium and helium.
@@ -8684,12 +9182,28 @@ It sounds serious. But not everyone is concerned. This [counterpoint editorial](
We mine for aluminium by sticking bauxite into a Bayer Process plant, where we boil it in caustic soda. If you put the right doohicky on the side of this plant then you get the gallium out. It's at about 100ppm, 100 grammes per tonne of bauxite processed... there's around a 1,000-year supply of Ga in the bauxite that we already know that we'll process for the aluminium content... We simply don't have any meaningful shortage of these metals [worth] worrying about.
As a proxy for supply issues, we will use price. The question resolve positive if by beginning of 2040 any of the following ""under serious threat"" elements has a trackable commodities price that attains an inflation-adjusted price more than 10 times its price as of July 10, 2018, as measured by a reliable entity, like [USGS](https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/). The elements in question are: He, Zn, Ga, Ge, As, Ag, In, Te and Hf.
","Yes, No"
+"In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?","For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.
+In 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be ""very strong"" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%.
+If Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?
+If no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.
+",""
"Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's ""Dark Was the Night"" on Voyager I's Golden Record?","Launched Mon, 05 Sept 1977 at 12:56:00 UTC, Voyager 1 has intrepidly made its way all the way to [interstellar space](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/). Wow. The probe carries with it mementos from Earth, including the so-called Golden Record. Per NASA, this [phonograph](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/golden-record/) is ""a 12-inch gold-plated copper disk containing sounds and images selected to portray the diversity of life and culture on Earth.""
One of the most haunting, emotional pieces on that record is a wordless gospel blues song called ""[Dark Was the Night, Cold Was the Ground](https://www.mojo4music.com/articles/7919/blind-willie-johnson-left-solar-system)"" by the artist Blind Willie Johnson.
Voyager 1 is on track to fly by the [star AC +79 3888](https://www.space.com/22783-voyager-1-interstellar-space-star-flyby.html) (currently nearly 18 light years from Earth) in 40,000 years, give or take a few. Odds are, the craft (and the record on it) will last [billions of years](https://www.quora.com/How-long-will-the-Voyager-last-for-Could-it-billions-of-years) or longer, possibly becoming one of the last remaining relics of humanity after the sun turns the Earth into a cinder in its Red Giant phase.
Will some sentient being ever collect this craft and listen to the Golden Record? This creature could be a genuine ET or a future descendent of humans. (XKCD digs into the physics of [retrieving Voyager here](https://what-if.xkcd.com/38/).)
Note: this question is just for fun, as the resolve date is set to the year 3000, and won't resolve before then.
","Yes, No"
+"When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):
+For small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.
+In 2015, ""restaurant"" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners ""food for thought"" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using ""in vitro"" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?
+When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence ""pop-up"" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count.
+If the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).
+Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
+Prices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.
+Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.
+",""
"Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockNW2006JD008235.pdf) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere which would [according to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy. This would lower temperatures regionally and globally for several years, and open up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reduce global precipitation by about 10%, trigger crop failures, and result in widespread food shortages.
According to [some models](http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/ToonRobockTurcoPhysicsToday.pdf), the smoke would rapidly engulf the Earth and form a dense stratospheric smoke layer. The smoke from a war fought with strategic nuclear weapons would quickly prevent up to 70% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Northern Hemisphere and 35% of sunlight from reaching the surface of the Southern Hemisphere. Such an enormous loss of warming sunlight would produce Ice Age weather conditions on Earth in a matter of weeks. For a period of 1-3 years following the war, temperatures would fall below freezing every day in the central agricultural zones of North America and Eurasia.
This could leave some survivors in parts of Australia and New Zealand, but they would be in a very precarious situation and the threat of extinction from other sources would be great. Whether a nuclear winter could cause extinction is currently unclear. Some [models consider total extinction very unlikely](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1775342), and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.
@@ -8728,6 +9242,15 @@ Option 1 is likely to make the roads somewhat safer; option two likely to make t
Note that option two could be satisfied by a cell-phone based, dashboard mounted platform, (""Pokemon auto""), though this is highly likely to be illegal. It could also be satisfied by a more mature augmented reality system in a safer way.
The question resolves as positive if the autonomous vehicles come first, and false if the augmented reality game comes first or if neither is in place as of Jan 1, 2025.
","Yes, No"
+"How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?","The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.
+How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?
+This question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
+Details of the search query
+For the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
+""AI ethics"", ""AI fairness"", ""racial bias"", ""gender bias"", ""algorithmic bias""
+The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).
+The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.
+",""
"How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?","Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.
There are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:
---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good
@@ -8741,6 +9264,35 @@ Resolution
This question resolves as the number of geoengineering-related documents listed on the [World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database](http://www.worldlii.org/int/special/treaties/) on December 31st, 2024. The relevant search will include the following search terms:
""Climate engineering"" OR ""geoengineering"" OR ""Solar radiation management"" OR ""Stratospheric Particle Injection"" OR ""Stratospheric aerosol injection"" OR ""Marine cloud brightening"" OR ""Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement""
",""
+"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
+Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
+What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
+This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for May 2021.
+The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
+The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
+In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012.
+",""
+"Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?","This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
+The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
+The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:
+--- log-uniform from 1 to 100.
+--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1.
+--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1.
+--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63).
+--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1.
+--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1.
+--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000.
+In this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.
+Predictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.
+Most estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:
+---
+One must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.
+---
+Also there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.
+---
+We may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.
+The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
+",""
"Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?","Restaurant Brands International is the parent company for Burger King and various other fast-food chains. In their [now-taken-down 2016 Sustainability Framework](https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210) (p. 6.) ([archive link #1](https://web.archive.org/web/20200902082204/https://www.rbi.com/Cache/IRCache/33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=33ba8475-a7df-ed29-3361-27ba8f6bb380&iid=4591210), [archive link #2](https://archive.is/JcAS2)), they stated:
“Restaurant Brands International is committed to sourcing pork globally only from suppliers that do not use gestation stalls, and we aim to accomplish this goal in North America by 2022.”
A gestation crate, also known as a sow stall, is a metal enclosure in which a farmed sow used for breeding may be kept during pregnancy. Animal welfare advocates regard the use of gestation crates as one of the most inhumane features of intensive animal production. (Source: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gestation_crate))
@@ -8750,6 +9302,15 @@ Question will resolve according to popular media reports, or according to an ann
If the result is unknown or unverified, the question resolves negatively, with the assumption being that any change would be well publicised.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
","Yes, No"
+"Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
+Various notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:
+---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist
+---Voltaire, French philosopher
+---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor
+Although no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).
+Will there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?
+This resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.
+","Yes, No"
"Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?","In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.
Washington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)
The Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.
@@ -8761,6 +9322,22 @@ This question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the Uni
This question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place.
There is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.
","Yes, No"
+"Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?","After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.
+This has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates.
+This question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.
+Here are the top 5 ISPs for this question:
+1--
+Comcast
+2--
+Charter
+3--
+AT&T
+4--
+Verizon
+5--
+Century Link
+(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)
+","Yes, No"
"When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?","Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.
In 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.
@@ -8812,6 +9389,14 @@ Resolution
This questions resolves positively if a geoengineering bill that is introduced in the House of Representatives and/or the Senate is subsequently enacted as legislation (by being signed by the U.S. president, or through other means) before or on 31/12/2024. For the purpose of this question, a geoengineering bill is any bill reported by the relevant [Congress website search](https://www.congress.gov/quick-search/legislation?wordsPhrases=%22Climate+engineering%22+OR+%22geoengineering%22+OR+%22Solar+radiation+management%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+Particle+Injection%22+OR+%22Stratospheric+aerosol+injection%22+OR+%22Marine+cloud+brightening%22+OR+%22Ocean+sulfur+cycle+enhancement%22&include=on&wordVariants=on&titles=on&summaries=on&actions=on&congresses%5B0%5D=all&legislationNumbers=&legislativeAction=&sponsor=on&representative=&senator=&searchResultViewType=expanded&q=%7B%22bill-status%22%3A%22introduced%22%2C%22type%22%3A%22all%22%7D). This search involves the following terms:
""Climate engineering"" OR ""geoengineering"" OR ""Solar radiation management"" OR ""Stratospheric Particle Injection"" OR ""Stratospheric aerosol injection"" OR ""Marine cloud brightening"" OR ""Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement""
","Yes, No"
+"When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?","Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.
+However, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990.
+Since then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology.
+Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.
+See [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)
+This question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?
+For the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.
+",""
"Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?","The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. The majority of the cases were epidemiologically linked to seafood, poultry and live wildlife market (Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market) in Jianghan District of Hubei Province. This suggests that the novel coronavirus has a possible zoonotic origin. [Some](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.08.939660v2.full.pdf) [evidence](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200211-sitrep-22-ncov.pdf) suggests the virus might have originated from bat sub-species. So far, scientists have been unable to conclusively determine the zoological origins of COVID-19.
In a [recent (but undated) preprint](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WEf2GYT_eh4zErSMd9eIwo1Uo_m0PRZk/view?usp=sharing), two Chinese scientists claim that the COVID-19 strain of coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan:
In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.
@@ -8833,11 +9418,26 @@ This questions resolves positively if, before the end of 2024 at least two of th
In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a Chinese virology laboratory, this will only count as single claim made by a one public health agency.
Assessments made by these agencies must broadly state that it is more likely than not that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese virology or biology laboratory, after having been released accidentally or deliberately. Synonyms for probability assessments must be considered by an admin to be broadly consistent with at least a 50% chance. Examples of such synonyms include ""probably"", ""likely"", ""with high probability"" and ""almost certainly"".
","Yes, No"
-"When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).
-On March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).
-This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):
-import pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(""https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv"") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution)
-",""
+"Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?","The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):
+P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.
+According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.
+In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production).
+Will renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?
+Resolution
+This resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.
+Data
+Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?","Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)
+Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.
+[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:
+---
+At least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy
+---
+At least 27% increase in energy efficiency
+Will the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?
+This question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.
+","Yes, No"
"If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated,
how much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?","Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]
If whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower.
@@ -8852,6 +9452,12 @@ If a whole human brain is successfully emulated, as per the criteria in [When wi
This cost-per-hour is not necessarily that of the the first system that runs an emulation. Instead it will be the lowest cost of the system that runs an emulation within 365 days of when the first emulation is run successfully.
By ""cost-per-hour"" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of ""subjective time"", to adjust for the possibly compressed or expanded simulation time. That is, if the emulation processes inputs times as quickly (or slowly) as a typical human, cost per an elapsed real hour (i.e. the cost per wall-clock hour) will be divided by to convert this into costs for an hour of ""subjective time"".
",""
+"When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?","Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of ""CFTR Modulators"" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market.
+This was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))
+Because of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:
+When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?
+By 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.
+",""
"How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?","Caloric restriction is,
a dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. ""Reduce"" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging.
Assume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average?
@@ -8864,10 +9470,32 @@ Quit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death.
Began caloric restriction after the age of 50.
Of the participants of the study who do qualify, what will be the mean lifespan gain, according to the best estimates of the researchers?
",""
+"What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?","As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.
+Currently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).
+On January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service?
+This question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.
+Resolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.
+",""
+"How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?","Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.
+How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?
+See also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)
+",""
"What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?","According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.
What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?
The number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.
",""
+"When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?","News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.
+With much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).
+Sometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:
+When will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?
+We want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.
+",""
+"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?","Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
+In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.
+In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?
+Resolution
+For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.
+",""
"Is the Collatz Conjecture true?","A sister question asks when the [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) will be resolved - here we ask which way it will turn out.
Again, let's say that the Collatz Program in pseudocode is:
collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1)
@@ -8886,15 +9514,22 @@ Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture:
---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/)
---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/)
","Yes, No"
+"Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?","Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.
+He rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.
+Jones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running ""to be a watchdog on the inside"" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.
+This question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?
+The question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.
+The question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.
+","Yes, No"
"Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):
The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.
Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?
This resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.
","Yes, No"
-"When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?","At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.
-A [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]
-The question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?
-The question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.
+"When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?","IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.
+[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.
+When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?
+Resolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.
",""
"When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?","Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada.
The option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.
@@ -8908,14 +9543,6 @@ Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new
North Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world.
January 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls their methodology for ranking nations such that a rating of 6.00 no longer carries the same meaning as it did at the time when this question opened. It resolves > in the case where the Democracy Index does not rate North Korea at 6.00 or above before 2200.
",""
-"Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?","What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?
-Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?
-We will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.
-If one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken.
-If it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved.
-If there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count.
-The maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399.
-",""
"In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?","The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.
In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?
Resolution:
@@ -8923,6 +9550,31 @@ Resolution:
---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins.
---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous.
",""
+"Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?","Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.
+What is the ultimate fate of the ""stuff"" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.
+After we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.
+But what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:
+---
+We could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.
+---
+A [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.
+---
+Protons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.
+What do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time?
+Question ""resolves"" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)
+","Yes, No"
+"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
+They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
+This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
+Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)
+This question asks:
+On 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?
+This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above.
+If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.
+If Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.
+If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
+*As judged by a metaculus admin.
+",""
"Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?","In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.
Now, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),
The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs.
@@ -8931,6 +9583,15 @@ Also recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxi
I have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex.
This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
+"Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?","Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)
+a brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.
+It was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation.
+Alcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.
+A common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and ""[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)"" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)
+Rather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.
+Will Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?
+Resolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
+","Yes, No"
"Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?","[Respirocytes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respirocyte) are hypothetical artificial red blood cells that are intended to emulate the function of their organic counterparts, so as to supplement or replace the function of much of the human body's normal respiratory system. Respirocytes were proposed by Robert A. Freitas Jr in his 1998 paper [""A Mechanical Artificial Red Blood Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology"".](https://foresight.org/Nanomedicine/Respirocytes.html)
The respirocyte is a bloodborne 1-micron-diameter spherical nanomedical device designed by Robert A. Freitas Jr. The device acts as an artificial mechanical red blood cell. It is designed as a diamondoid 1000-atmosphere pressure vessel with active pumping powered by endogenous serum glucose, and can deliver 236 times more oxygen to the tissues per unit volume than natural red cells while simultaneously managing carbonic acidity.
An individual respirocyte consists of 18 billion precisely arranged structural atoms plus 9 billion temporarily resident molecules when fully loaded. An onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors allow the device to exhibit behaviors of modest complexity, remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals.
@@ -9069,6 +9730,14 @@ It's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [d
Will a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?
This question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.
","Yes, No"
+"Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?","In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.
+On 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)
+Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?
+This question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:
+---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution)
+---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution)
+---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution)
+","Yes, No"
"Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?","This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox).
In a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler & Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation;
Parameter Distribution:
@@ -9086,6 +9755,10 @@ In this case we will be addressing the first parameter in the Drake's Equation,
It is the rate of formation of stars (in stars/year in the Milky Way galaxy) suitable for the development of intelligent life. Most estimates assume this refers to main sequence stars, but do consider the suitability of dead stars such as white dwarfs and black holes, and failed stars such as brown dwarfs and rogue planets when entering your answer.
The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
",""
+"How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?","Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.
+This question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?
+Question resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.
+",""
"Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?","Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [""The Squad""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party.
Americans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032.
Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?
@@ -9093,6 +9766,25 @@ This question resolves positively if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is confirmed as th
If any of the three elections mentioned above does not happen, for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. For the purposes of this question, an election which is delayed by more than a year from the original date is judged to not have happened.
In the case of a split in the Democratic Party, AOC will be deemed to be the ""Democratic Nominee"" if she is the nominee for one of the parties which forms from the split, and if that party is one of the two largest parties in the US (as measured by percentage of the popular vote in the presidential election for which AOC is the nominee).
","Yes, No"
+"When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.
+Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.
+The question asks:
+When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
+This question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:
+1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client.
+2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States.
+3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides.
+The rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.
+Similar questions:
+---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/)
+---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/)
+---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area.
+---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course).
+---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service.
+---The client must pay for the trip.
+---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff.
+---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken.
+",""
"Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?","Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.
Despite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)
In October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.
@@ -9112,6 +9804,11 @@ In recent years, particularly since [Russia made military incursions into Ukrain
This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?
This question resolves positively if, before that date, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Belarus or annexed all or part of Belarus, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded or annexed all or part of Belarus.
","Yes, No"
+"What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?","Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.
+Reduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons.
+What will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?
+Resolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.
+",""
"How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?","As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).
Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).
How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is less than $8 per kg?
@@ -9132,6 +9829,29 @@ There will be an ambiguous resolution if there is no 4 year (nor 1 year) doublin
For the purposes of this question, ""independent"" is not counted as a third party, as it is not a political party, but instead an identification.
This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media sources report that a member of a third party won a United States senate election by January 1st 2050. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
+"When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?","Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).
+As the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.
+When will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.
+A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).
+",""
+"Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?","In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.
+So how does one define that demarcation?
+Theodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.
+In practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way.
+[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.
+The FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.
+Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?
+This will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?","Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ).
+Research suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ).
+However, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ).
+The limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone.
+However, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability.
+Positive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.
+",""
"When will the first human be born on another world?","Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.
In colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone.
In that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?
@@ -9139,6 +9859,29 @@ The child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of
A 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.
'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded.
",""
+"If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research.
+This is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)
+Here we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders.
+Question resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.
+Resolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.
+Some fine print:
+---
+The fine print from [this question](http://(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with ""MCAI"" substituted for ""GPT-3"" and ""5th graders"" substituted for ""4th graders"".
+---
+If there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.
+---
+The entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?","related questions on Metaculus:
+---
+[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)
+---
+[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)
+Cryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications.
+Bitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.
+What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?
+This question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.
+",""
"Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?","Developing resuscitated technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation.
To pin the probability of the development of such technology down, this question asks:
Will any person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before the 1st of January 2200?
@@ -9175,6 +9918,30 @@ This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by
in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.
Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).
",""
+"Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?","Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death.
+Thus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group.
+Internationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)
+These efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:
+By 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported?
+Here we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.
+","Yes, No"
+"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
+[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
+Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
+Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.
+How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
+Details of the search query
+For the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
+The [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
+Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.
+Running this query for previous years gives:
+---2,397 for the calendar year 2017
+---3,726 for the calendar year 2018
+---5,390 for the calendar year 2019
+---7,127 for the calendar year 2020
+",""
"Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?","Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing quickly. They raised 120k from YC, $2M in a seed round, and $15.3M in a Series A, per [Crunchbase](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/substack/company_financials).
Will substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?
This resolves positively if credible reports say that Substack has raised funds at a valuation exceeding $1 billion prior to the resolution date.
@@ -9196,8 +9963,17 @@ We have not seen 3% productivity growth in USA for many years. Predicting such g
Will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?
If Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Alberto Forchielli is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
-"When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?","After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?
-The question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.
+"How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty.
+On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to ""doing the most good"" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.
+How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?
+This question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757
+If the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.
+This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
+",""
+"When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?","[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users)
+[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)
+When will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?
+Resolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.
",""
"If the US enters a recession, how many months will the economic contraction last?","The great recession of 2007-2009 was the longest lasting contraction in the US economy since 1929, [lasting 18 months, peak to trough](https://www.nber.org/cycles.html).
The good news is that the banking systems are probably more resilient than a decade ago, when the crisis struck, due to improved capital and liquidity regulations. Moreover, we now have an improved familiarity with the policy of quantitative easing (QE), the purchase of securities with newly created central-bank reserves aimed at lowering interest and stimulating expenditure.
@@ -9207,6 +9983,20 @@ A recession is here taken to be a two consecutive quarters of decline in real GD
Data on durations of historical contractions in the US economy may be found at the [NBER](https://www.nber.org/cycles.html).
Edit: (20/02/19): if the US enters multiple recessions before 2032, this question will refer to the duration of the first one.
",""
+"How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background
+==========
+
+Economic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020.
+Young workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008.
+As young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.
+How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
+The number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.
+",""
"What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?","[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). As of March 2019, cage-free shell egg production accounted for only 18.4% (60.7 million hens) of the current table egg layer flock. By contrast, in the European Union, As of 2017, 49,6% of the total number of laying hens were not in cages [(EU, 2018)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).
What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?
Resolution
@@ -9218,6 +10008,21 @@ Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019?
This question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA.
It will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary).
","Yes, No"
+"Will a recession cause ""suicides by the thousands""?","In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [""suicides by the thousands.""](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!
+[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.
+If the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?
+For purposes of this question:
+---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States.
+---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously.
+---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?","The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S.
+In this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:
+Average weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment.
+For historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).
+Resolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.
+This question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).
+",""
"Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?","Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year.
Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.
Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?
@@ -9227,6 +10032,15 @@ This question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exc
is designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.
As of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?
",""
+"When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?","On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space.
+On 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.
+On 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.
+India plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.
+That’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.
+Part of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:
+When will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?
+For the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.
+",""
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
@@ -9271,6 +10085,17 @@ Resolution time will be, as best as discernible, the date at which the budget al
---
In the event that Metaculus should become highly influential and trusted, it is conceivable that this question itself could lead to adverse race dynamics. The author reserves the right to hide the community prediction, make this question private, delete it, etc., at his discretion.
",""
+"When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954):
+When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think.
+Bringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to ""within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.""
+Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).
+When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.
+Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
+The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
+Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
+",""
"When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?","The [James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST) is an [bus-sized](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/JWST_people.jpg) telescope designed to replace the ageing [Hubble Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope). It is very cool.
In 1997, it was expected to be launched in 2007 for a budget of 0.5 billion $. It has since been [rescheduled many times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope#Cost_and_schedule_issues). As of the first of March 2019, [NASA expects](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-completes-webb-telescope-review) to launch it on the 30th of March 2021, for a budget of 9.66 billion $.
Question: When will the JWST be launched?
@@ -9283,6 +10108,26 @@ For the purposes of this question, any telescope that has ever officially been c
Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.
This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.
","Yes, No"
+"Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
+They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
+This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
+Stripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.
+[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.
+This question asks:
+On 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
+This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
+","Yes, No"
+"In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?","Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:
+1--global poverty: 39%
+2--cause prioritization: 24%
+3--meta: 23%
+4--animal welfare: 8%
+5--long term future: 6%
+In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?
+Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.
+The set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.
+If global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.
+",""
"What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?","Discussion of the human influence on global temperatures has a long history. For instance, Fourier first discussed why the Earth was warmer than expected from solely considering solar radiation reaching the planet in his [On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space](https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/Fourier1827Trans.pdf) in 1824. Fourier ruled out geothermal effects, considered the temperature of outer space and made allusions to the heating of a greenhouse [(Fleming, 1999)](http://ocean.phys.msu.ru/courses/geo/lectures-addons/04/1999%20Fleming,%20Joseph%20Fourier,%20the%20greenhouse%20effect,%20and%20the%20quest%20for%20a%20universal%20theory%20of%20terrestrial%20temperatures.pdf). [Tyndall (1861)](http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~vijay/Papers/Spectroscopy/tyndall-1861.pdf) suggested a solution to this conundrum by experimentally demonstrating that gases such as carbon dioxide can effectively absorb infrared radiation, i.e. the ‘greenhouse effect’. These activities eventually culminated in the work of [Callendar (1938)](http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/callendar_1938.pdf), who used 147 land-based weather stations to show that the Earth's land temperature had increased over the previous 50 years, and produced estimates that agree remarkably well with more recent analyses [(Hawkins and Jones, 2013)](https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2178).
Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:
---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1),
@@ -9322,27 +10167,42 @@ When will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg
Resolution
This question resolves as the date when will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their shell egg and chicken or chicken ""ingredients"" supply chains within any timeline. Reporting should come from [ChickenWatch's progress tracker](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/). If ChickenWatch no longer maintains its progress tracker, another source may be consulted, or the question should be resolved ambiguously.
",""
+"Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.
+Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?
+This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.
+Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
+Note: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).
+If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.
+If the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.
+In case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:
+1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01,
+2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and
+3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party.
+If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.
+","Yes, No"
+"How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?","Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online.
+In 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.
+[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).
+This question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.
+As reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022?
+Linear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.
+",""
"What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?","The difference between tenure-track (TT) and non-tenure track (NTT) percentages reveals how many more higher education teachers are accepted into financially demanding roles at their institutions. This highlights the ability of American institutions to support tenured professors in the future and hints at the institutions' own predictions for financial stability. [AAUP](https://www.aaup.org/report/annual-report-economic-status-profession-2019-20) surveys on the academic labor force and the economic health of professors are reported through [The Annual Report of the Economic Status of the Profession](https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/2019-20_ARES.pdf). In the 2019-2020 school year, the percentage of TT teaching staff at private, religious, and public universities from both sexes, was 20.0% while NTT teaching staff represented 27% of the total academic workforce. The difference therefore as -7% between the two.
This question asks: What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?
This question will resolve ambiguously if the report is not published before the resolve date. This question is a part of the Higher Education Series
",""
-"What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?","Context
-=======
-
-The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.
-Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.
-[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.
-Because of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.
-It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.
-Other Related Questions:
-[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)
-[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)
-What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.
+"By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years","In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.
+This question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*
+By January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).
+The prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).
+Metaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.
+--
+*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).
+","Yes, No"
+"How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?","The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).
+Over the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.
+How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?
+Resolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.
",""
"Will EQRx get at least one drug approved by the FDA before the end of 2030?","From [this Chemical and Engineering News article](https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/EQRx-launches-developdrugs-steep-discount/98/web/2020/01):
Venture capitalist and serial entrepreneur Alexis Borisy has founded EQRx to develop equal or better versions of innovative medicines—often called me-too drugs—and sell them at a substantial discount to competing therapies. With an initial investment of $200 million from a syndicate of investors, the biotech firm plans to put 10 new, more affordable drugs on the market in the next decade.
@@ -9363,13 +10223,6 @@ If EQRx ceases to exist before 2031, this resolves negative. Exception: if the c
What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?
The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.
",""
-"Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
-There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.
-In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans)
-Will ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?
-Resolution
-For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.
-","Yes, No"
"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.
Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?
This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.
@@ -9399,22 +10252,18 @@ When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from th
The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.
If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”
",""
+"When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?","The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.
+Since that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most ""veteran"" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.
+When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?
+---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet.
+---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same ""B10XX"" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that ""this stage previously flew the ABC mission"", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion.
+---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control.
+",""
"How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?","One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills.
In the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).
How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?
This question resolves as the ""Number of jobs"" for the profession ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.
",""
-"Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?","Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.
-The World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/).
-Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?
-This question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:
----A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/).
----A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.)
----As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the ""WSOP 2021 Main Event"" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/).
----The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants).
-This question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.
-Note that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated ""Main Event"" is played live.
-","Yes, No"
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.
@@ -9424,6 +10273,20 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Wor
This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
",""
+"Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?","The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),
+LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”
+This prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?
+Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a ""transformer"" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,
+Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?
+After one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer ""Yes"".
+Either of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:
+1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase
+language model ""state of the art""
+Take the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.
+OR
+2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025.
+Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
+","Yes, No"
"What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.
What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?
@@ -9458,6 +10321,11 @@ What will that number be in the 2040 report?
This question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).
* ""Metaculus"" here means ""Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section"".
",""
+"Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?","The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.
+This question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
+* ""military personnel"" here includes the Coast Guard.
+""conscription"" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.
+","Yes, No"
"When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?","Why care
Energy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown.
[On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), ""fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation.""
@@ -9468,6 +10336,22 @@ Related questions
---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/)
---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/)
",""
+"When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954):
+When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think.
+Bringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to ""within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.""
+Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).
+When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.
+Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
+The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
+Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
+Related questions:
+[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
+[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
+[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
+[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
+",""
"What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?","Context
=======
@@ -9504,6 +10388,14 @@ Chauvin’s neck restraint is unlikely to have exerted a dangerous amount of for
This question resolves positively if Derek Chauvin is acquitted of ALL murder charges OR all murder charges against him are dropped. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. If he dies before resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.
Only convictions for offences actually called ""murder"" trigger negative resolution ; conviction for other offences such as manslaughter does not.
","Yes, No"
+"What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?","Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).
+Researchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).
+What is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?
+This question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026.
+A single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.
+In case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.
+This question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.
+",""
"Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?","According to [earthquaketrack.com](http://earthquaketrack.com) the largest quake this past year: 6.6 in Néa Anatolí, Crete, Greece
The area is geologically active an had an estimated 8-8.5 earthquake in 365 A.D.
The 365 Crete earthquake occurred at about sunrise on 21 July 365 in the Eastern Mediterranean, with an assumed epicenter near Crete Geologists today estimate the undersea earthquake to have been a magnitude 8.0 or higher. It caused widespread destruction in central and southern Greece, northern Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, Sicily, and Spain. On Crete, nearly all towns were destroyed.
@@ -9575,6 +10467,25 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---1,404 for the calendar year 2018
---2,287 for the calendar year 2019
",""
+"What will the commercial real estate vacancy rate be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?","Context
+=======
+
+The coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May.
+As of mid-May, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report.
+Last month the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:
+Commercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively.
+According to a recent [National Association of Realtors survey](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%.
+
+Question
+========
+
+What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?
+
+Resolution
+==========
+
+This question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).
+",""
"What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, while the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is single-dose.
As of 3 March 2021, 26,957,804 people have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public.
@@ -9625,6 +10536,14 @@ Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050?
FIFA World Cup is considered the official tournament hosted under FIFA.
If any World Cup prior of 2050 is moved after 2050 it does not count.
","Yes, No"
+"When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?","Background
+[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.
+An [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).
+Resolution
+This question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination.
+The admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.
+The AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.
+",""
"How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?","As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).
Commercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).
How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is greater than $20 per kg?
@@ -9634,11 +10553,6 @@ Related questions:
- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)
- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)
",""
-"Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?","Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.
-Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.
-Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
-This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.
-","Yes, No"
"What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/).
According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.).
What will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?
@@ -9729,20 +10643,6 @@ Resolution
For the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.
",""
-"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
-Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.
-However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
-The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
-Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?
-What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?
-This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.
-As of writing this question, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.
-This question resolves ambiguously if the S&P500 modifies its sector definition substantially. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if after such a modification, either:
----
-Companies amounting to >25% of either the IT or Communications sectors by market cap that were previously in either sector are removed
----
-Companies amounting to >25% of of either the IT or Communications sectors that were previously not in either sector are added
-",""
"How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty.
On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to ""doing the most good"" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.
How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?
@@ -9750,6 +10650,20 @@ This will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own [f
If the financials page has changed, but a calculation by ACE is available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.
This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
",""
+"How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?","At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting:
+Governments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.
+The annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.
+According to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:
+---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance)
+---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance)
+---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance)
+How much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are <25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.
+Data
+World Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
+*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.
+",""
"Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?","Genetic sequencing has gotten cheaper by [several orders of magnitude](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Sequencing-Human-Genome-cost) in the past several decades. [Over 1 million Americans](https://phys.org/news/2018-10-people-dna-sequenced-theyve-privacy.html) have already had their DNA sequenced through direct-to-consumer products like those offered by 23AndMe, Ancestry, etc.
[Many concerns](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/dna-tests-privacy-risks/2020/09/11/6a783a34-d73b-11ea-9c3b-dfc394c03988_story.html) have been raised about possible harms. While it is illegal in the United States to use genomics data to set health insurance rates or discriminate for employment, there are related other uses not covered (other types of insurance or discrimination) as well as more speculative ideas. For example, if an adversary had access to your genetic data, they might be able to forge evidence tying you to a particular crime, or might be able to fool a biometric identification system.
Note: I am using ""DNA data"", ""genomics data"", ""genetic data"" interchangeably here, but I am not an expert. Please help clarify if this is incorrect.
@@ -9860,11 +10774,6 @@ They need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index
---Nikkei 225
Their imprisonment must start before 2026
","Yes, No"
-"When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?","The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .
-When will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?
-This question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.
-In case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.
-",""
"Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?","Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. (Indeed, there have been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.)
This question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear war will occur by Jan 1, 2070. (Different questions address this separately, but none directly.) There is a great paucity of public and useful estimates of this probability. See for example [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3137081) for an outline of considerations (but no bottom-line numbers.)
@@ -9881,37 +10790,22 @@ However, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confir
How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?
Resolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.
",""
+"When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?","The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).
+However, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).
+Some futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.
+This question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?
+This question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.
+The resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.
+This question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.
+""Humanity"" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.
+Related Questions:
+---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/)
+",""
"Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)","G.R.R. Martin's epic series ""A Song of Ice and Fire"" has served as the basis for the hit HBO series ""Game of Thrones."" The two treatments are similar but differ in detail, and Martin has struggled to complete books prior to the parallel events in the series.
As of early 2018, there is apparently one more season of the show, and likely [two more book volumes in the works.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) This question concerns the book series. In it, the Others (or white walkers as they are known in the show) are a mysterious race living north of The Wall in Westeros. For now.
By the end of the book series, will the Others reach King's Landing?
For positive resolution, at least one White Walker and at least 100 undead must be within sighting distance of King's Landing. (Scouting via an undead Dragon does not count.)
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?","Context
-=======
-
-The [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.
-Just like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.
-[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.
-Because of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.
-It is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.
-Other Related Questions:
-[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)
-[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)
-What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-The resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.
-",""
-"When will the first cloned human be born?","In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.
-The Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as ""somatic cell nuclear transfer."" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:
-[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.
-They've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...
-(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: ""given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day."")
-On the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now.
-When do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.
-",""
"Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?","[John D. Rockefeller](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D._Rockefeller) is considered to be the wealthiest American of all time. In 1913 he was the world's richest person with a net worth of over a billion dollars. That was equivalent to about 2% of the United States' GDP back then. For reference, 2% of US GDP would be close to 400 billion dollars today! This reference perspective makes him much richer than the current richest person in the world, Jeff Bezos, whose net worth is at 112 billion dollars in the 2018 Forbes ranking.
Yet, inequality is on the rise in many developed countries and the net worth of the richest person in the world has been consistently increasing over the last few years. Could a person as rich as John D. Rockefeller reappear in the modern world?
It is asked:Will the richest person in the world in 2033 have a net worth equivalent to or greater than 2% of the United States' GDP at the time?
@@ -9968,6 +10862,12 @@ Number of floors
---
Plot use
","Yes, No"
+"How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?","[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.
+This question asks:
+How many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?
+To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date.
+If HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question.
+",""
"What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?","As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records#Spacecraft) a maximum velocity of 343,112 km/h (0.000318 times the speed of light, or c) relative to the Sun.
It is expected that this will be substantially exceeded in the future when Parker Solar Probe reaches its ultimate perihelion. Its velocity relative to the Sun is expected to reach 690,000 km/h (0.000640 c).
This question asks: Before January 1 2050, what will be the greatest velocity ever achieved, in c, by any spacecraft made by humans?
@@ -10014,13 +10914,6 @@ Balloons do not require the explosive power of a rocket launch, but do require h
When will a commercial ballooning venture receive approval to begin passenger flights to the stratosphere?
This question will resolve as positive when a credible news report or release issued by a national aviation agency announces regulatory approval for any commercial ballooning venture, in the form of a commercial space transportation license or permit, to conduct passenger flights into the stratosphere [(above 15 km)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere).
",""
-"If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?","The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.
-The UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).
-If, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?
-Judgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).
-See also:
----[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/)
-",""
"What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?","During the last recession, China launched [an aggressive stimulus and credit expansion package](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/china-credit-expansion-unintended-consequences) which [kept the unemployment rate below 4.3%](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/unemployment-rate) and reduced it over the following eighteen months. However, in the first two months of the nCov-19 pandemic, 5 million Chinese workers [have lost their jobs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/china-economy-millions-lose-their-jobs-as-unemployment-spikes.html), many areas of the country remain in lockdown, and exports [have dropped by 17.2%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/china-s-jan-feb-exports-fall-17-2-y-y-in-dollars-est-16-2).
How successfully (or unsuccessfully) and how quickly will China manage this crisis?
The question asks: what will China's official unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?
@@ -10082,19 +10975,6 @@ On February 17th an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721
One of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI.
This question resolves on the date when OpenAI publishes a blog post or paper or a document of any kind, describing a large machine learning model that was trained on both images and text, and other data using massive computational resources (>10^4 Petaflop/s-days as determined from estimates, judged by the Metaculus mods). If they do not unveil their secret project before April 2022, then this question resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?","Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:
----Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1),
----Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/),
----Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)),
----Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887).
-According to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.
-In 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.
-When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.
-Data
-[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
-",""
"When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?","[New York Times](https://archive.vn/QxmYS#selection-369.0-369.13) (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive criminals (similar to in the USA, e.g. [Golden State Killer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer)). The database will also present the Chinese government with enormous statistical power for genomics research that could be used to train very accurate genomic prediction models for medical and eugenic purposes (artificial selection). British intelligence researcher [Richard Lynn speculated already back in 2001](https://www.amazon.com/Eugenics-Reassessment-Evolution-Behavior-Intelligence/dp/0275958221) that China would pursue such eugenic technology in the first half of the 21st century. In 2018, Chinese researcher He Jiankui [caused a shockwave when it was revealed](https://archive.vn/fhVDM#selection-359.0-359.10) he had genetically altered embryos and which were later born as healthy babies. Many Western governments or government bodies are also pursuing large-scale genome biobank projects (e.g. [US Million Veteran Program](https://www.research.va.gov/mvp/)), though not so far at the scale of the Chinese program. Private consumer companies are [also building massive databanks](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1).
The question is: When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens?
This question resolves positively when a reputable scientific source reports that Chinese has reached 1 billion genotyped or sequenced genomes from their own citizens (a reputable source is e.g. Nature News, MIT Tech Review, or similar, as well as any reviewed paper in the unlikely event that it is reported in a journal before a science news source).
@@ -10135,13 +11015,6 @@ The search terms used to generate the data are:
---[Three](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,climate%20science)
The normalisation process is explained on the second tab of the google sheets document.
",""
-"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.
-This question asks:
-Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?
-This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.
-If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.
-2 February clarification: A ""significant reduction in immunity"" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.
-","Yes, No"
"Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?","An oracle ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_control_problem#Oracle), [Lesswrongwiki](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Oracle_AI)) is a theoretical capability-constrained artificial intelligence (AI) limited to answering questions. An oracle would plausibly be easier to safely implement than a [general AI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence), and it may help to solve the safety issues associated with general AI. Therefore, a reasonable case can be made for developing an oracle first, even if a safe general AI seems feasible. However, an oracle would have considerably less (though still large) upside than a general AI, so it may be less appealing to investors.
This question will immediately resolve positively if an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest before an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest. If a generally superhuman AI is developed first, the question will immediately resolve negatively. By default, the question will resolve ambiguously on the resolve date, 2099-12-31.
Successful creation of either technology would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderators.
@@ -10185,14 +11058,15 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---8,592 for the calendar year 2018
---11,596 for the calendar year 2019
",""
+"Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?","A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.
+We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states ""judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour""; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.
+Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?
+The question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.
+An impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death.
+","Yes, No"
"Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?","Craig J Mundie and Eric Schmidt summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/4/).
If the Long Now Foundation declares Craig J Mundie the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Eric Schmidt the winner, this question resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
-"Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?","We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a ""the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years."" The research suggests that ""the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000."" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.
-Given that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:
-Will any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?
-This question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)
-","Yes, No"
"When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?","[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope.
Among the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm.
That being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is still [only 21](https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.4147), achieved back in 2012. While current state-of-the-art quantum processors possess on the order of dozens of qubits, it is estimated that in order to factorize semiprimes on the same scale as those used in modern RSA cryptography would take [thousands](https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/87345/how-many-qubits-are-needed-to-factor-2048-bit-rsa-keys-on-a-quantum-computer) [of qubits](https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/5048/how-many-logical-qubits-are-needed-to-run-shors-algorithm-efficiently-on-large).
@@ -10200,9 +11074,11 @@ In order to encourage research into the problem of factoring large integers and
When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or another polynomial-time integer factorization algorithm) be used to factor one of the previously unfactored RSA numbers for the first time?
Resolution will occur via credible media report and the public release of the prime factors. The factored RSA number must be one that previously had no publicly known factorization. If a quantum computer factors RSA-100 for example, that won't satisfy our criteria. The question will resolve retroactively 30 days before the announcement of the factors. The question resolves ambiguous if every RSA number ends up being factored via classical computer first.
",""
-"How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?","The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.
-What will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?
-If [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.
+"When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?","Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf).
+Recently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.
+[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.
+When will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?
+This question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.
",""
"Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?","Mohammed bin Salman is the crown prince of Saudia Arabia and heir apparent to replace Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as king of Saudia Arabia. However his suspected involvement in the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has raised international outcry, but so far Saudia Arabia has remained adamant about his leadership.
Question: Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?
@@ -10291,29 +11167,6 @@ Forecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M3MpDDwTTOJMrhnPJYkAjWyk4YgirO5b0A8g-JCEZ9I/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
",""
-"How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?","The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.
-The [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:
-1--
-The race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.
-2--
-Attention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.
-3--
-A major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.
-4--
-In response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.
-5--
-One of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.
-6--
-DeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold.
-7--
-Facebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision.
-8--
-NVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.
-How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?
-Only prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.
-Resolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.
-The question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.
-",""
"What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.
[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era.
It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.
@@ -10414,14 +11267,20 @@ We hence ask:
will the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025?
This question also resolves as positive if any of the three NAFTA member nations formally announce withdrawal from the treaty before January 1, 2025, as per a reputable source. Renegotiation of the terms of the NAFTA treaty does not count as a positive resolution.
","Yes, No"
-"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
-Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
-[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.
-What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?
-This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
-GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).
-The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
-",""
+"Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?","Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth.
+Consider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html):
+Malaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa.
+How do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).
+Writing in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):
+I hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.
+We have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.
+But the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).
+As Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/):
+In theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).
+Ahh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically:
+Before the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive?
+The positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)
+","Yes, No"
"What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?","Background
==========
@@ -10435,6 +11294,16 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).
",""
+"When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.
+Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.
+(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))
+If SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L3 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L3 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L3 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.
+More information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)
+Related questions:
+---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
+---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
+[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.
+",""
"If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the ""red button"" be pressed?","[Petrov Day](http://petrovday.com/) is the yearly anniversary of the [1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident) on September 26th, in which Stanislav Petrov received alerts that five nuclear weapons had been launched by the US, later found to be caused by the mistaken detection of high-altitude clouds. Petrov suspected that it was a false alarm and, against protocol, decided not to send reports up the chain of command; this decision may have prevented a full-scale nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union.
One proposed way to celebrate Petrov day is to [create a metaphor for the situation Petrov was in](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJxwFMSL5TPN2usC6/modes-of-petrov-day), with a big red button with much lower stakes:
And you can also play on hard mode: ""During said ceremony, unveil a large red button. If anybody presses the button, the ceremony is over. Go home. Do not speak.""
@@ -10462,6 +11331,42 @@ See also these related questions,
[What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/)
[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)
",""
+"Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?","In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.
+The decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.
+In the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.
+This question asks:
+Will Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar.
+Since there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.
+A positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.
+However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
+The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
+Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?
+What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?
+This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.
+As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.
+",""
+"How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?","Context
+=======
+
+As of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.
+Talkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.
+Out of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.
+
+Question
+========
+
+How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?
+
+Resolution
+==========
+
+Here ""Schedule I drugs"" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).
+For the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).
+Situations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.
+""Country"" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.
+",""
"When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?","[The Boring Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company) is a company that constructs and operates tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of substantially improving the speed and cost of tunnel boring. The tunnels are initially being proposed for use in train-like transport between fixed stops, but The Boring Company's stated long-term goal is to establish a vast tunnel network similar to current road networks. It was established in 2016 by Elon Musk and SpaceX employees, after Musk became frustrated at Los Angeles traffic.
Apparently, typical TBMs can tunnel through the earth at a sustained rate of [60 feet](https://www.quora.com/How-fast-can-a-tunnel-boring-machine-drill-under-good-conditions-How-does-it-go-that-fast) (18 m) per day. Recently, The Boring Company completed its [second tunnel](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1261078175234191360) in Las Vegas. As the second 0.8-mile tunnel was supposedly started after the first one was finished on [February 14th](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1228391734213660672), the second tunnel was dug was roughly 47 feet (14 m) per day, including time spent on e.g. constructing the stations at each end. This is comparable to other modern machines, but still far from their goal of tunneling as fast as a snail; in 2008, the world championship snail racer moved at a rate of [~0.0016 m/s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snail_racing) or 140 m/day, about ten times faster.
The Boring Company has a number of ideas to improve tunneling speed, including nonstop tunneling (putting in supports while the machine is still boring), increased power, reduced tunnel diameter, etc. It started with an off-the-shelf TBM named [Godot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company#Boring_machines) and has developed or is developing improved TBMs named Line-storm and Prufrock; it is not clear which was used to bore the Las Vegas tunnel.
@@ -10471,6 +11376,35 @@ When will The Boring Company dig a tunnel at a rate of 140 meters per day?
---This must be accomplished by one TBM, not e.g. 10 TBMs all tunneling at 14 m/day.
---If neither of the first two conditions is satisfied by the end date, this question resolves as the upper bound.
",""
+"Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).
+Amongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:
+1--
+[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images.
+2--
+[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.
+3--
+[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.
+4--
+[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.
+5--
+[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.
+Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?
+The question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.
+In 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:
+---
+ImageNet: 99
+---
+STL-10: 24
+---
+CIFAR-10: 20
+---
+CIFAR-100: 18
+---
+MNIST: 10
+Hence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.
+The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.
+Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported.
+",""
"Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?","The Second Amendment to the [United States Constitution](https://www.usconstitution.net/const.pdf) protects the right of the people to keep and bear arms and was adopted on December 15, 1791 as part of the Bill of Rights.
An amendment to the Constitution is an improvement, a correction or a revision to the original content approved in 1788. To date, 27 Amendments have been approved, six have been disapproved and thousands have been discussed.
Article V of the Constitution prescribes how an amendment can become a part of the Constitution. While there are two ways, only one has ever been used. All 27 Amendments have been ratified after two-thirds of the House and Senate approve of the proposal and send it to the states for a vote. Then, three-fourths of the states must affirm the proposed Amendment.
@@ -10485,15 +11419,11 @@ Researchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when ad
When will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market?
This question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit.
",""
-"Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?","Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life.
-Galileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface.
-Two upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans.
-Question is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).
-The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.
-What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?
----The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in.
+"What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?","From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),
+Gross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP
+In the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?
+What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?
+This question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.
",""
"Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?","In a publicly available spreadsheet, accessible [here](http://agingbiotech.info/companies/), Karl Pfleger has maintained a list of for-profit companies that are confirmed to be working to slow or reverse aging in humans. His criterion for including a company is outlined [here](http://agingbiotech.info/about/what_counts_as_aging.html), and only includes those companies that aim to deliver a product that will undo or slow down molecular damage from aging. Anti-aging cosmetic companies do not count by this criterion.
As of January 6th, 2020, there are 126 companies listed in the spreadsheet, but progress has been rapid in recent years. More companies were created from 2016-2018 than were created in the entire period listed before that, from 2009-2015. If growth continues at its current pace, then the number of companies will surpass 200 by 2025. However, if the number does not reach 200, this would imply that growth must have slowed down at some point.
@@ -10527,6 +11457,13 @@ This may differ from the official estimates because COVID-19 cases did not follo
This question will resolve ambiguous if the question ""[Which month of 2020 will see the biggest increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)"" will resolve ambiguous.
You may also want to take a look at: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)
",""
+"How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?","Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy.
+Europe is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390).
+Growth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020.
+Projections have [historically underestimated](http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur) estimate actual growth, however. The prices of PV energy continues to fall (see related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/321/1-dollarwatt-solar-energy-by-2020/)) and projection methodologies may in some cases fail to capture factors such as transformative technologies that may further drive PV growth.
+How much global solar photovoltaic electricity-generating capacity, in gigawatts, will be in operation by 2020?
+The definitive source for question resolution will be the annual ""[Trends](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3)"" report from the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org)'s [Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme](https://www.iea.org/tcp/renewables/pvps/). Because the report covers trends up to the year previous, resolution will be dependent on the report to be issued in late 2021. If this report should cease publication or substantially change its methodology, question resolves as ambiguous.
+",""
"By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?","An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.
By March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.
By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?
@@ -10585,10 +11522,51 @@ Zak & Gibbs, [A Bayesian Assessment of the Longevity of Jeanne Calment](http
---
Robine, Allard, Herrmann & Jeune, [The Real Facts Supporting Jeanne Calment as the Oldest Ever Human](http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glz198) (against the ID switch hypothesis).
","Yes, No"
+"Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?","The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).
+Several contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.
+At present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.
+The question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?
+Question resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.
+Question resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.
+","Yes, No"
"How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?","According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July 2019, the average American employee on US private nonfarm payrolls [worked 34.4 hours per week according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-weekly-hours)
Over the coming decades, it is possible that [new technologies](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jack-ma-proponent-of-12-hour-work-days-foresees-12-hour-workweeks/2019/08/29/fd081370-ca2a-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?noredirect=on) and [changes in working practices](https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-case-for-the-6-hour-workday) will enable workers to work fewer hours per week.
This question asks: in January 2030, how many hours per week will the average employee on US private nonfarm payrolls work, according to either the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the statistical authority tasked with providing this information?
",""
+"If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?","The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:
+---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which
+------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles,
+------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States,
+------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe.
+---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises.
+It is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.
+If the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?
+This resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.
+This question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.
+See also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)
+",""
+"When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?","Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth).
+Recently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.
+When will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?
+In order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:
+1--
+Unconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. ""all citizens over the age of 18""). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).
+2--
+Substantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.
+3--
+Guaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count.
+4--
+Ongoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.
+Additional details:
+---
+If a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country.
+---
+""Country"" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A ""virtual nation"" or territory would not count.
+---
+The payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.
+---
+The question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms ""country"" ""person"" and ""income"" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.
+",""
"Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?","American journalist and author [Robert A. Caro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Caro) (born October 30, 1935) has for the last decades been working on The Years of Lyndon Johnson, a multi-volume biography of the former US President. The work is planned to consist of five volumes, the first four of which were published in 1982, 1990, 2002, 2012, respectively.
When will the fifth volume be published? Here's how [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Years_of_Lyndon_Johnson#Planned_book_five) summarizes the publication estimates given at various points since 2011:
In November 2011, Caro estimated that the fifth and final volume would require another two to three years to write. In March 2013, he affirmed a commitment to completing the series with a fifth volume. As of April 2014, he was continuing to research the book. In a televised interview with C-SPAN in May 2017, Caro confirmed over 400 typed pages as being complete, covering the period 1964–65; and that once he completes the section on Johnson's 1965 legislative achievements, he intends to move to Vietnam to continue the writing process.
@@ -10596,6 +11574,21 @@ In an interview with The New York Review of Books in January 2018, Caro said tha
The question resolves positive if and only if Caro's fifth and final volume of The Years of Lyndon Johnson becomes available for order (not pre-order) on [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) while Caro is still alive.
If the fifth book is not intended to be the last, the question resolves negative if the book intended to be the last one isn't published during Caro's lifetime, and positive if it is. If it's unclear whether the fifth book is intended to be the last one, the question resolves ambiguous.
","Yes, No"
+"When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.
+The [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.
+In 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into ""intrinsic rewards"" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with ""intrinsic rewards"" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without ""intrinsic rewards"" only explored 2 out of 24.
+In Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [""artificial curiosity""](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908).
+We ask:
+When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?
+As of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) & [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0).
+Resolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).
+",""
+"Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles","Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation.
+What global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?
+We'll add these all up to ask:
+What percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030?
+Resolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.
+",""
"If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?","Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,
---
A wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.
@@ -10658,6 +11651,40 @@ In the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in Decembe
The question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.
In case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.
",""
+"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?","As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.
+What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?
+The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.
+",""
+"When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?","Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns.
+[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%.
+When will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either:
+1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2).
+2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data.
+*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:
+1--
+Published in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning
+2--
+Cites Niven and Kao
+3--
+Pre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)
+If the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.
+",""
+"Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?","It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)
+As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.
+It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?
+To avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?","Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).
+Will the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?
+Note that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.
+","Yes, No"
+"Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?","Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.
+[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.
+In 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.
+Countries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free.
+How many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?
+This number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.
+",""
"Are we in a simulated reality? Part II","In [Part I](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/278/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-i/), we discussed two (of perhaps more) potential ""modes"" in which we might inhabit a simulated reality: NCVR (Natural Consciousness, Virtual Reality) and ACSR (Artificial Consciousness, Simulated Reality).
Of the two, NCVR seems a much more straightforward extrapolation of current technology: it is easy to imagine current visual and audio VR becoming more high-resolution, rich, and convincing even over the next couple of decades. Replicating senses of touch, taste, smell, proprioception, equilibrioception, hunger, etc., will be quite a bit harder, probably requiring neural implants and an exquisite understanding of human sense perception – but such implants exist now in very crude form and their extrapolation does not seem in tension with other basic ideas of how reality works.
ACSR is much more contentious, requiring the assumption not just that true Artificial Intelligence will be developed, but that it can take a form that experiences just what we do. It is generally assumed that this would occur via the mechanism of simulating (or ""uploading"") a human brain's operation into a simulation of that operation. (Though it might occur via other paths.) Nobody knows on what timescale this is possible, and it is possible (and believed by some) that there are fundamental obstacles such simulations/uploads. Further, the uploaded mind must exist in a reality that is carefully enough simulated to convincingly replicate a full physical reality (just as in the NCVR case.)
@@ -10671,12 +11698,56 @@ Note that the question is stronger than whether any convincing NCVR is possible,
In any month before July 2023, will the Rightmove House Price Index indicate that the average cost of a property is equal to or less than £216,543; a nominal decline of 30% from June 2019 levels?
Resolves positively if so, negatively if not, and ambiguously if the Rightmove House Price Index is discontinued or its methodology is changed so substantially that administrators believe it is no longer reasonable to continue this question.
","Yes, No"
+"When will the next Qatari general election be held?","Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.
+When will Qatar hold its first legislative election?
+If there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.
+",""
"What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?","The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length .
In the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered.
Naive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; this has been improved slightly since, with the current best-known algorithm being Le Gall's, which has complexity in and was discovered in 2014.
The best known lower bound on matrix multiplication is ; it is known that there is no algorithm faster than this. So further improvement on Le Gall's algorithm has not yet been ruled out.
In 2029, what will be the smallest for which there is known to exist an algorithm to multiply two square n×n matrices which has complexity in ?
",""
+"Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?","The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):
+In the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.
+Among [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):
+[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy
+Unsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.
+Will the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024?
+Resolution is positive if by major media account ""first light"" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
+Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
+The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable.
+As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is
+kNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.
+An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.
+What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?
+This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
+",""
+"What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?","The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant.
+Globally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception.
+A [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.
+What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?
+Resolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.
+",""
+"What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?","One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).
+To shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:
+What will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?
+Resolution
+---
+This question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.
+---
+This question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.
+---
+For the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.
+---
+For the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).
+---
+To be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.
+",""
"When will Solar Cycle 25 begin?","Context
-------
@@ -10690,6 +11761,11 @@ Resolution Criteria
The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.
",""
+"Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?","There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)
+[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.
+Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?
+A credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?","From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),
Despite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...]
From a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing.
@@ -10708,6 +11784,53 @@ And an ambitious nonprofit with supporters in high political places called [Glob
On the pessimistic side, maybe we'll be stuck with these things for centuries or much longer. [This Quora answer](https://www.quora.com/Will-the-world-ever-get-rid-of-nuclear-weapons), for instance, is typical of the pessimist perspective: ""Unfortunately nuclear weapons are here to stay. It’s a box that’s been opened and can’t be closed, ever.""
So are we stuck with them? For a negative resolution, an independent, politically empowered and respected group (a la the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-44333448/meet-the-un-s-nuclear-inspectors)) needs to verify that the Earth is free of deployed nuclear weapons at some point prior to 2075. Otherwise resolution is positive. (Note the ""deployed"": some-assembly-required nukes could still be kept around to destroy the odd asteroid or alien mothership.)
","Yes, No"
+"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.
+In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.
+In the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.
+When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)):
+1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase.
+2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants.
+In the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.
+If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?
+The question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.
+This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
+1--
+[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+2--
+[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+3--
+[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+4--
+[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
+Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
+5--
+[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
+6--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
+7--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
+8--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
+9--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
+10-
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
+All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?","Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. [This government webpage](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing#seeing-friends-and-family) gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.
+The Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for [""any longer than we have to""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54102872). But how long will this be?
+That is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?
+The question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.
+The question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings.
+",""
+"What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.
+[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.
+It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.
+What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?
+The official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous
+Related Questions:
+[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)
+",""
"Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?","London and New York City are the world's two most important financial centers, and as of 2018 are the only cities in the world to have ever been ranked Alpha++ by the [Globalization and World Cities Research Network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network)
The fastest transatlantic airliner flight was from New York's JFK Airport to London's Heathrow Airport on 7 February 1996 by the British Airways Concorde designated G-BOAD in 2 hours, 52 minutes, 59 seconds from take-off to touchdown aided by a 175 mph (282 km/h) tailwind.
Since the Concorde was retired in 2003, flight times have increased substantially. The fastest commercial flight operated since 2003 [seems to have been made in 2018](https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/norwegian-plane-boeing-harold-van-dam-new-york-jfk-london-gatwick-travel-holiday-a8169496.html) by a Norwegian Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner departing from New York's JFK reached London Gatwick in 5 hours, 13 minutes.
@@ -10715,6 +11838,47 @@ This question asks: At any point before 2030, will it once again be possible by
To resolve positively, at least one living human must make the journey from inside the metropolitan area of either New York City, United States or Greater London, United Kingdom, to inside the metropolitan area of the other city in under three hours any point before January 1 2030 by commercially available means, including chartered privately owned or operated civil aircraft or spacecraft, but not military aircraft or spacecraft.
The clock starts at the moment the journey itself begins (i.e. excluding time spent checking in, going through a security process, waiting on the tarmac at an airport before takeoff, et cetera.)
","Yes, No"
+"Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?","Context
+
+Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)
+This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+
+This resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:
+---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked.
+---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches.
+---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC).
+This will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.
+Any conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.
+Conflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.
+Deaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?","Background
+==========
+
+The gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers.
+In 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.
+“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”
+In case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods.
+Moreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).
+When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?
+
+Resolution Criteria
+===================
+
+Resolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).
+When unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.
+",""
+"PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.
+Background
+The many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.
+In the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward"" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?
+Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the percent of all respondents that ""accept"" or ""lean toward"" the answer ""many-worlds"" on the ""Quantum mechanics"" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.
+The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
+",""
"Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?","Techcrunch, 6th October 2020: [John McAfee arrested after DOJ indicts crypto millionaire for tax evasion](https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/05/john-mcafee-arrested-after-doj-indicts-crypto-millionaire-for-tax-evasion/?guccounter=1):
Cybersecurity entrepreneur and crypto personality John McAfee’s wild ride could be coming to an end after he was arrested in Spain today, and now faces extradition to the U.S. over charges spanning tax evasion and fraud.
The SEC accuses McAfee of being paid more than $23.1 million worth of cryptocurrency assets for promoting a number of ICO token sales without disclosing that he was being paid to do so. Furthermore [the DOJ has levied a number of counts of tax evasion against McAfee](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/john-mcafee-indicted-tax-evasion), saying that he “willfully attempted to evade” payment of income taxes owed to the federal government.
@@ -10741,6 +11905,13 @@ techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and
at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.
Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from credible independent sources, preferably by nonprofit research organisations (e.g. the Good Food Institute) or other nonprofit organisations, or governmental organisations, such as the USDA, or FAO, or independent researchers. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.
",""
+"Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?","Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [""verbal approval""](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)
+But other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1).
+Although implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.
+Will the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?
+This question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.
+""Commerical Operations"" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.
+","Yes, No"
"Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?","[WikiLeaks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WikiLeaks) is an organisation founded by Julian Assange that publishes news leaks and classified media provided by anonymous sources. From time to time, WikiLeaks publishes encrypted ""[insurance files](https://heavy.com/news/2019/04/julian-assange-dead-mans-switch-wikileaks-insurance-files/)"".
There has been much speculation about the purpose of these files. Some of these files are intended as permanent records of upcoming releases, to ensure information is preserved. According to Julian Assange:
We openly distribute … encrypted backups of materials that we view are highly sensitive that we are to publish in the coming year… So that there is very little possibility that that material, even if we are completely wiped out, will be taken from the historical record… Ideally, we will never reveal the key… Because there is things, like, … redactions sometimes need to be done on this material.”
@@ -10760,14 +11931,49 @@ For the purpose of this question, all encrypted WikiLeaks insurance files public
---Date: 2016-12-09, Size: 83 GB, Name: 2016-12-09_WL-Insurance.aes256
---Date: 2017-01-25, Size: 281 MB, Name: 2017-01-25_WL-Insurance.aes256
","Yes, No"
+"Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?","Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.
+Resolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?","In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior.
This question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/).
",""
+"When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?","Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).
+A commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).
+When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?
+For the purposes of this question, ""available from a grocery store"" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.
+",""
+"If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?","In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes
+A simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.
+This question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.
+If a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.
+If no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.
+","Yes, No"
"Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?","The [Grand Slam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Slam_(tennis)) tournaments, also called majors, is an annual tennis event. The Grand Slam itinerary consists of the Australian Open in mid January, the French Open around late May through early June, Wimbledon in June-July, and the US Open in August-September.
[Roger Federer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Federer) has won 20 Grand Slam singles titles—the most in history by a male player, [according to the tennis website Tennis-x](https://www.tennis-x.com/grand-slam-finals/roger-federer.php).
Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?
Question resolves negatively upon Federer's retirement or death, and positively upon reports that he won his 21st Grand Slam.
","Yes, No"
+"What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?","According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.
+Over the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.
+What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).
+For the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .
+Data
+Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
+",""
+"By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?","In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)).
+The key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.
+The main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))
+There is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):
+Animals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations.
+Accordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.
+Advocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).
+However, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.
+By the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?
+Resolution
+This question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the first human head transplant occur?","Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached.
Much more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive.
Recently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his or her mind remains active.
@@ -10786,6 +11992,60 @@ Will Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) re
This question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.
Historical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).
","Yes, No"
+"Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?","This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
+The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
+The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.
+In this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.
+There being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.
+The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
+",""
+"Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?","Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.
+The highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades.
+Will two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?
+This question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?","If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide.
+Augmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)
+Will VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?
+This question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.
+","Yes, No"
+"If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
+This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.
+Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.
+See also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)
+",""
+"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.
+This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?
+The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.
+",""
+"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on.
+While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.
+Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.
+How much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?
+If available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field ""cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5"" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).
+If GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.
+If GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous.
+A similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.
+Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):
+---2016: $890
+---2017: $823
+---2018: $617
+---2019: $592
+",""
+"If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
+This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.
+Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.
+See also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)
+",""
+"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
+Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.
+As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.
+An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.
+What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?
+This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
+",""
"What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?","As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 patients and 1,317 members](https://www.alcor.org/library/alcor-membership-statistics/), and the [Cryonics Institute](https://www.cryonics.org/), with [177 patients and 1,859 members](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/).
These organisations might differ in the chance of reviving their patients if the initial quality of cryopreservations is higher in one or the other, or if one organisation is likely to last longer than the other, or if when revival becomes possible one is better able to arrange this than the other.
What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?
@@ -10817,6 +12077,17 @@ The AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.
The question will resolve negative if the problem is solved with a traditional approach based directly on human intellect and use of AI is not highlighted as crucial by the authors.
If the triggering event is still considered unclear, then the ambiguity will be resolved based on whether at least one more similar breakthrough (including, but not limited to, other Milenium Prize problems) featuring similar use of AI follows in the 3 years following the first solution announcement. The main promise of the AI systems is their ability to increase the speed of discoveries beyond human ability, so this type of disambiguation should remain true to this question's spirit.
","Yes, No"
+"PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)"", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.
+According to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world:
+The target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).
+In the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on choosing immortality?
+Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on:
+Immortality would you choose it?
+This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.
+The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
+",""
"Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?","This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/)
Psilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from.
Despite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative.
@@ -10830,6 +12101,23 @@ Last year, Business Insider’s Erin Brodwin reported that experts believe the t
So will we hit the mark? By January 1st, 2027, will psilocybin be an accepted treatment for end-of-life anxiety/depression? Positive resolution is by FDA approval in the US or MHRA approval in the UK.
The team at the Qualia Research Institute have generously gotten the ball rolling by providing their own prediction that it is 75% likely the question will resolve positive.
","Yes, No"
+"Will the next US recession turn into a depression?","As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is ""Will the US Experience a Depression?"" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):
+A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.
+According to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?
+This question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:
+---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively).
+---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?","The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?
+The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union.
+Resolution details:
+---
+The procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)
+------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union
+---
+Positive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession
+------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution
+","Yes, No"
"How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
@@ -10847,14 +12135,33 @@ Running this query for previous years gives:
---2,287 for the calendar year 2019
---3,046 for the calendar year 2020
",""
-"At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?","Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.
-One of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.
-At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of ""Top Charity"" and a type of work of ""Reducing Wild Animal Suffering""?
+"What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).
+The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing).
+[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.
+The ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).
+[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?
+What will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report.
+In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.
+",""
+"Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?","The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.
+The probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.
+Over the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.
+The probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling ""surface"".
+""I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,"" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.
+""It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!"" she told BBC News.
+Resolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.
","Yes, No"
-"Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?","Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).
-According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.
-Will we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?
-This question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.
+"Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?","The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.
+It hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).
+This question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.
+Resolves:
+---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018
+---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018
+---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points)
+---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more)
+My thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.
","Yes, No"
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?","In 1959, Richard Feynman pointed out that nanometre‐scale machines could be built and operated, and that the precision inherent in molecular construction would make it easy to build multiple identical copies. This raised the possibility of manufacturing at ever increasing speeds, in which production systems could rapidly and cheaply increase their productive capacity. This in turn suggested the possibility of destructive runaway self‐replication.
As Eric Drexler, a nanotech pioneer, first warned in [Engines of Creation](http://xaonon.dyndns.org/misc/engines_of_creation.pdf) in 1986 (pg. 146),
@@ -10959,6 +12266,15 @@ How many companies worldwide will pledge to adhere to the current basic GAP stan
Resolution
This question resolves as the number of companies worldwide that have been reported to have pledged to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat within a timeline ending in or before any date in 2030, on December 1st, 2023. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue ""Broiler"", with the timeline ending in the year 2030.
",""
+"What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?","An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005),
+One could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.
+Furthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).
+If Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth.
+For example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?
+The relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.
+Real world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.
+ETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.
+",""
"What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880.
Here, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time?
Note that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date.
@@ -10975,6 +12291,13 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved o
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
",""
+"In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?","The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).
+From its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017.
+This question asks in which month will there first be >=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).
+Should the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.
+If the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.
+If this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as ""> Jan 1, 2035""
+",""
"Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?","In [April 2018](https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus16.pdf) the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) reported that the incarcerated US population has continued to decrease. This population includes offenders under the jurisdiction of state or federal prisons or held in local jails. For 2016, the incarceration rate for all ages is 670 out of 100,000 US residents. (If you are interested in a world-wide comparison please see the [World Prison Brief](http://www.prisonstudies.org/)).
Currently the incarceration rate is at its lowest since 1993 and has been decreasing since reaching a peak in 2009. [Incarceration Rate, 1980-2016](https://www.bjs.gov/content/keystatistics/images/7_Incarceration_rate_1980_2016.png)
Will the rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022 (all ages)? Note that the last time the rate was this low was in 1991.
@@ -10988,15 +12311,9 @@ Like many simply stated problems in mathematics, the Proximity Conjecture has pr
Will the Density Conjecture be proved true for the planar 3-body problem in the next 10 years?
Resolution is positive if a proof of a theorem to which the above description applies with reasonable accuracy is published by Sept. 1, 2027. Additionally, if the conjecture is proved for the planar three body problem with particular (all nonzero) mass ratios, resolution will also be positive. Finally, the question resolves negative if a negative proof or counterexample is found prior to the resolution date, or if no proof is published at all.
","Yes, No"
-"What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
-[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases.
-[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.
-As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set.
-What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?
-This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2021-06-14.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.
-In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
-",""
+"Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?","[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.
+This question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.
+","Yes, No"
"Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?","Each year since 2011, the programming Q&A website [Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com/) has conducted [a survey of its users](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/). Among the questions included, developers are asked to list all programming languages that they regularly use. For the previous eight years, JavaScript has topped this list. While neither the 'most loved' or 'most dreaded', JavaScript is described (in the survey results) as the 'most common': [in 2020, 67.7%](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2020#most-popular-technologies) of all respondents reported having used it.
However, technology develops, and developer tastes evolve. Will Javascript's dominance continue for another decade? This question asks:
Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?
@@ -11007,6 +12324,13 @@ This question resolves positively if:
If Stack Overflow does not release the results of a 2030 Annual Developer Survey for any reason, this question resolves ambiguously. If no 'commonly used programming languages' question is included, this question also resolves ambiguously. If the organization currently known as Stack Overflow changes name or structure, continuity will be judged by Metaculus admins.
Stack Overflow Annual Developer surveys do not need to be conducted in each consecutive year for the purposes of this question's resolution --- a cessation of all surveys from 2021 to 2029 is irrelevant --- but results of a 2030 survey must be publicly reported.
","Yes, No"
+"Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?","In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.
+Carbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.
+The milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.
+The point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called ""[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)"" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.
+Will earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?
+For this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.
+","Yes, No"
"When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?","The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records).
When will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess?
Resolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row.
@@ -11056,6 +12380,17 @@ The question will resolve negative if no such reproduction is made by 2023 or th
Related question:
[Will life on Venus be confirmed before 2035?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5255/life-on-venus/)
","Yes, No"
+"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
+They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
+This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
+Stripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.
+[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.
+This question asks:
+On 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?
+This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine.
+If Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.
+If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
+",""
"When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published?","In recent years, there has been growing interest in diversifying the samples used in studies that train models to predict human traits, including disease, from genetic data. See for instance, two [recent](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0144-0) [studies](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(19)30231-4). This desire is primarily driven by findings that models trained on European-descent populations only generalize imperfectly to other populations, and particularly poorly to African descent populations, including African Americans.
The [Genome-Wide Association Study Diversity Monitor](https://gwasdiversitymonitor.com/) shows an overview of GWAS findings [broken down by ancestry of participants](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-020-0580-y). A GWAS (genome-wide association study) is a study that attempts to predict a phenotype from genome-wide genetic data, and not just a specific region.
As of writing, 1.4% were African (African American or Afro-Caribbean). The largest listed study with persons of African descent had 68.2k persons, and was [published in 2019](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31564439/).
@@ -11075,6 +12410,30 @@ But this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer sp
When will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years?
Will resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.
",""
+"Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?","The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that
+1--is in orbit around the Sun,
+2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and,
+3--has ""cleared the neighborhood"" around its orbit.
+A debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].
+The chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that ""clearing the neighborhood"" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.
+The chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.
+This debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.
+This now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences,
+will the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?
+Resolution details
+IAU's 2006 definition is:
+A “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit.
+We'll refer to this as the ""original definition"". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:
+---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or
+---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or
+---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c).
+If more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively.
+[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)
+[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)
+[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)
+[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)
+*currently characterized by the IAU as ""dwarf planets""
+","Yes, No"
"When will the 10,000th human reach space?","The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.
The first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous.
As of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket))
@@ -11094,6 +12453,21 @@ There are a few possibilities open right now; Merkel may choose to leave office
Thus we ask: Will there be Federal Elections held in Germany prior to the earliest date slated for the next elections?
Resolves positive if elections are held before 29 August 2021; resolves negative if elections are held between 29 August and 24 October 2021 (inclusive); resolves ambiguous for everything else.
","Yes, No"
+"How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?","[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.
+With access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.
+By contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.
+As of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.
+In their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:
+[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.
+How many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?
+This question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task.
+If human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.
+Related questions:
+---
+[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)
+---
+[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)
+",""
"Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?","A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,
It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.
A world is said to have ""radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence"" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.
@@ -11116,6 +12490,18 @@ Also unclear is the frequency of emergence of novel flu strains with high human
So here we assess the probability of a re-do of the the Spanish Flu: a natural flu that kills tens of millions worldwide in a single year, sometime in the coming two decades. We can all hope this number is small — but how small?
Will there be more than 50M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2035?
","Yes, No"
+"Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?","China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)
+“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”
+This mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it.
+The NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.
+The International Energy Association (IEA) states that:
+“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”
+China expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%.
+Vehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits.
+As credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).
+Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?
+Resolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).
+","Yes, No"
"When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?","In April 2017, Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic, [expressed hope](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/) that the commercial spaceflight company would begin sending passengers to space, himself included, by the end of 2018.
His statement comes [nine years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two) after the WhiteKnight Two powered mothership aircraft was unveiled and [three years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash) after a fatal crash of a SpaceShip Two glider craft in the Mojave Desert. After multiple announced launch timelines by Branson have come and gone, Branson's mother [quipped](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm) that ""It's always 'the end of the year.'""
The company is making progress, however. The FAA granted a [commercial space launch test license](http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-receives-faa-license-for-spaceshiptwo-tests/) in August 2016 - but not yet a license to carry passengers. And in May 2017, SpaceShip Two [successfully tested](https://www.geekwire.com/2017/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-flexes-wings/) the ""feather"" air braking position of its wings, which had been accidentally mis-deployed in the 2014 crash. Hundreds of passengers have already paid the six-figure ticket price, and are waiting for their turn to travel to space.
@@ -11158,22 +12544,6 @@ If GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous.
If GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous.
For this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), ""headline money moved"" rather than ""best guess of total money directed to charities"").
",""
-"What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?","Context
--------
-
-Given that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle.
-The [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).
-In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z).
-Accurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).
-At present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:
-What will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?
-For context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).
-
-Resolution Criteria
--------------------
-
-The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.
-",""
"What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?","A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does.
Estimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)
This huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full ""strong"" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains ""human intelligence parity"" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.
@@ -11212,21 +12582,15 @@ The definition of a ""pandemic"" varies among sources; here we will define a ""s
Will there be more than 2.5M deaths worldwide in a single 1-year period due to an influenza strain of natural origin by 2025?
Resolution is positive if numbers reported by the CDC, WHO, or other official organizations put an estimated total number of fatalities above 2.5M in a single 1-year period that ends prior to Jan 1, 2025. (If only ranges are available, question will resolve as positive if the bottom end of the range exceeds 2.5M.)
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?","The [C-band](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)) is radio waves of frequencies roughly from 3.7 to 8.0 gigahertz. In recent years, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has moved to clear C-band spectrum for 5G usage, transitioning those airwaves from their current use by communication satellites, to 5G cellular networks [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wireless/fcc-adopts-rules-to-auction-spectrum-for-5g-backs-9-7-billion-in-satellite-payments-idUSKCN20M2L9) [[2]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)#C-Band_Alliance). The FCC will have a [spectrum auction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectrum_auction) scheduled to start on December 8, 2020 (Auction 107), to auction off rights to transmit signals in the 3.7 – 3.98 GHz band.
-Some significant past auctions were ""Auction 73: 700 MHz Band"" in 2008 for a transition from analog TV broadcasting to digital broadcasting, with $19.6 billion in winning bids for 62 megahertz of spectrum, and ""Auction 103: Spectrum Frontiers – Upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz"" in 2020 Q1, with $7.6 billion in net bids for 3400 megahertz of millimeter-wave spectrum. ""Auction 107: 3.7 GHz Service"" will have 280 megahertz of spectrum for auction.
-Note that while some news articles report the net proceeds for a particular auction, this questions asks for the net bids (the statistics have the relation: net proceeds = net bids - incentive payments for existing licensees). The incentive payments for Auction 107 are [up to $15 billion](https://spacenews.com/fcc-sets-december-c-band-auction-offers-up-to-14-7-billion-for-satellite-operators/).
-What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?
-Resolution is by an FCC [news release](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-363000A1.pdf) or [public notice](https://www.fcc.gov/auction/103/releases) of the net bids of Auction 107.
+"How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?","[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.
+Furthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.
+There are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years.
+Though direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.
+
+How far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?
+
+---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication.
",""
-"Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?","As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.
-However, we cannot rest easy.
-As The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:
-Are we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps.
-A special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.
-How long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?
-Can we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030?
-For these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.
-","Yes, No"
"Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?","My favorite send-up of conflicting dietary advice is in Woody Allen's 1973 movie Sleeper, where he — a health food store owner — wakes up in the future to request wheat germ, not ""steak or cream pies or hot fudge"", foods known by (future) science to be healthy.
In the 45+ years since then it's not gotten that much better. A case in point is the [Ketogenic diet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ketogenic_diet), characterized by a very high percentage of fat intake, small amount of protein and near-zero carbohydrates.
The idea that a diet containing items like a [bacon cheeseburgers served on a bun made of egg](https://queenketo.com/ultimate-keto-low-carb-bacon-cheese-burger-chips/) would be healthy would have been pretty radical a decade ago, but many adherents of the diet find significant positive results, and there is very far from any consensus on the effects of this diet, especially in the medium or long-term. How will it turn out? I'll take the statement to be:
@@ -11238,11 +12602,6 @@ If at any time after the date of Jan 1, 2025 the community prediction is > 95
Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of Jan 1, 2030, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of question close, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.
edited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from ""typical person"" to ""some identified and significant population of people.""
","Yes, No"
-"When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?","Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.
-Fast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.
-The question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?
-Resolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).
-",""
"Will Iowa host another ""first in the nation"" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?","Since the modern primary system was established in the United States in 1972, Iowa has had a special status as being the first state in the United States to cast ballots and award delegates for the Presidential campaigns - the coveted ""first in the nation"" status that brings much media attention (and money) to Iowa.
On 3 February 2020, Iowa held US caucuses. While the Republican caucus was uneventful, the Democratic caucus lead to [an unprecedented delay in reporting results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Iowa_Democratic_caucuses#Delay_in_final_results), leading to many pundits to declare that the Iowa caucuses would be over. Most notably, David Plouffe, who ran the campaign for Barack Obama, said ”I believe caucuses are dead"" on MSNBC.
Will this come true, or are the rumors of the death of this 48 year old tradition greatly exaggerated?
@@ -11257,21 +12616,6 @@ In May 2019, Farage's new Brexit Party topped the poll in the [2019 European Par
This question asks: Before 01 January 2023, will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland?
Resolves positively on credible media reports that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland at any time before 01 January 2023, and negatively otherwise.
","Yes, No"
-"How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
-[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
-Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
-AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).
-How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?
-This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
-Details of the search query
-For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in ""all fields"" (i.e. the abstract and title):
-""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction""
-The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
-Running this query for previous years gives:
----80 for the calendar year 2017
----127 for the calendar year 2018
----275 for the calendar year 2019
-",""
"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.
When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?
This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:
@@ -11297,17 +12641,19 @@ Drugs qualify only if the first reports of non-medical (e.g. recreational) consu
---
Non-medical consumption here includes a wide range of use-cases including recreation and using drugs for physical, cognitive, emotional effects, but does not include usage primarily for treating/preventing diseases or aging
",""
-"When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?","In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely.
-When will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle?
-Autopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be ""at fault"" or not (as this may ambiguous.)
-Note: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.
-",""
-"What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?","Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet.
-However, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.
-[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels).
-Data: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.
-What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?
-Resolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.
+"When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?","The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on ""growing teeth"" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:
+Growing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.
+The following timeline is included in the article:
+2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.
+2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.
+2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less ""native"" teeth.
+2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.
+2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants
+2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.
+Similarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on ""tooth regeneration"" as of 2020-01-18 states:
+Tooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.
+There has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as ""Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth"" and ""Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals"".
+The question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?
",""
"Will the XENON1T experiment soon report a detection of dark matter or other new physics?","A major goal of eperimental particle physics and cosmology is to identify the [dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) pervading the universe. Foremost candidates for this matter are [WIMPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weakly_interacting_massive_particles) and [axions](https://www.quantamagazine.org/why-dark-matter-might-be-axions-20191127/). An ongoing test for WIMP-nucleon scattering is [XENON1T](http://www.xenon1t.org/) in Italy, with a much higher sensitivity than [preceding experiments](http://www.nature.com/news/largest-ever-dark-matter-experiment-poised-to-test-popular-theory-1.18772); this dark matter detector is essentially a 3500 kilogram target of liquid Xenon sandwiched between two arrays of photomultiplier tubes. The arrays detect signals from scintillation and electron drift generated from particles scattering off Xenon nuclei, at which point known [backgrounds](http://arxiv.org/abs/1512.07501) will be subtracted out to get the WIMP signal.
Recently, the XENON1T experiment disclosed that it has some interesting events in hand; see [preprint](https://www.science.purdue.edu/xenon1t/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/xenon1tlowersearches.pdf) and [popular article in Quanta](https://www.quantamagazine.org/dark-matter-experiment-finds-unexplained-signal-20200617/). These happened not in its search for WIMP dark matter, but in looking for axions. Per the Quanta article,
@@ -11336,6 +12682,12 @@ All of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October
When will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip?
For positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the ""passenger seat"" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) ""Coast-to-coast"" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)
",""
+"How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?","The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.
+[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.
+How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?
+Resolution
+This question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.
+",""
"Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?","[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.
[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.
[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.
@@ -11349,16 +12701,6 @@ A military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least
At least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.
(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third ""described as WWIII"" criterion.)
","Yes, No"
-"Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?","The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality.
-Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?
-This question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?","In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.
-The question is:
-When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?
-The date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%.
-For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as ""passenger car"", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.
-",""
"Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?","If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [""Death to Pennies""](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?
After all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency.
You can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.
@@ -11383,6 +12725,19 @@ Note that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the th
If the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive. If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative. If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution.
To help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.
","Yes, No"
+"Will the ""silver"" Turing Test be passed by 2026?","The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A ""chatterbot"" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)
+The format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.
+A bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The ""silver"" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.
+A ""gold"" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.
+This question pertains to whether or not the ""silver"" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?","The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019.
+Singapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies.
+Singapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/)
+This question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?
+This question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.
+If no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.
+",""
"Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?","In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,
a new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.
The profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:
@@ -11421,6 +12776,37 @@ Other possible world:
---[If California does not pass Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5130/if-california-does-not-pass-proposition-22-to-classify-app-based-drivers-as-independent-contractors-how-many-active-drivers-will-uber-have-in-california-per-quarter-in-2021/)
See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).
",""
+"How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
+[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
+Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
+AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).
+How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
+This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
+Details of the search query
+For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in ""all fields"" (i.e. the abstract and title):
+""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction""
+The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
+Running this query for previous years gives:
+---80 for the calendar year 2017
+---127 for the calendar year 2018
+---275 for the calendar year 2019
+",""
+"Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)","After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [""Vulcan"" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:
+Maybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.
+This taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.
+We'll play along, and ask:
+By Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that ""Vulcan"" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security?
+For positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and ""National Security"" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.
+In case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will space mining be profitable?","There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.
+This being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.
+When will a space mining company report a profit?
+---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel).
+---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies.
+---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify.
+---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous.
+",""
"What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?","Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false).
Merchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars.
South Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK ""wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank"". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions.
@@ -11445,6 +12831,26 @@ An economy is said to sustain adequate growth if in the 15 years following the d
This question asks, Will a democratic nation whose economy transitions from capitalist to market socialist sustain adequate economic growth?
If such a nation sustains adequate growth, this question resolves postively. If such a nation sustains below adequate growth, this question resolves negatively. If no democratic nation transitions their economy to market socialism before 2070 and after January 1st 2020, this question resolves ambiguous.
","Yes, No"
+"How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?","For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.
+Question: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?
+Resolution details:
+---Only humans in the observable universe count.
+---""Humans"" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them.
+",""
+"Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?","For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science.
+In the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.
+The anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the ""low fat is healthy"" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).
+Nearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).
+To that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.
+In the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: ""From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.""
+In Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.
+And in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details:
+Berkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline.
+And then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):
+Almost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found
+Whether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.
+But will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?
+","Yes, No"
"Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector.
One of their major focuses is building the global animal welfare community, and any kind of scandal in their midst would be a significant setback.
Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?
@@ -11464,61 +12870,6 @@ Required properties of an individual brain emulation:
Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)
Emulation here is the process, described in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. Resolution requires just those portions of the human brain that have functionally relevant effects on actual behaviour to be emulated. The emulation needs to run sufficiently long to confirm that it successfully produces similar outward behaviour more similar to the activity of the original brain than that of any other human brain.
",""
-"Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)
-Wild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.
-For the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.
-1--
-At least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.
-2--
-Legislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.
-3--
-There are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, ""a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.""
-4--
-A protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.
-5--
-A major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.
-6--
-Brian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.
-","Yes, No"
-"A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028","According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.
-Last year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.
-[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .
-According to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.
-The reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.
-Freedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.
-What will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?
-This number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.
-",""
-"When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?","Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016.
-Heavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.
-Ununennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.
-When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?
-Resolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.
-For example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).
-",""
-"What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?","Context
--------
-
-Solar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.
-[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields.
-Robert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:
-“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.""
-Peak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity.
-During periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming).
-What will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?
-
-Resolution Criteria
--------------------
-
-Question resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.
-",""
-"How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?","According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/).
-How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?
-Resolution
-This question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query:
-Regions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: ""Producing Animals/Slaughtered""
-Forecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.
-",""
"When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?","COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.
In November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)
Based on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.
@@ -11535,14 +12886,6 @@ Related questions:
---[“Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be reuscitated before 2200?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-reuscitated-before-2200/)
---[“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)
","Yes, No"
-"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).
-The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.
-As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)).
-An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.
-What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?
-This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-",""
"Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?","According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina.
A little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa.
In terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only.
@@ -11574,42 +12917,6 @@ Related Questions
---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/)
---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/)
",""
-"When will the world have reached peak Facebook?","Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.
-While there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.
-But while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:
-When will the world have reached peak Facebook?
-For the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.
-",""
-"How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)).
-The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):
-The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.
-Tesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.
-How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.
-Data
-According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:
-2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.
-",""
-"When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?","The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?
-While seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.
-Define an emigration crisis as:
----An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours.
-When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?
-To operationalize this further,
----
-For something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.
----
-If >50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users.
-We ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.
-On the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with >50 predictions, is in the past:
-With 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date.
-With a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.
-With 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.
-If the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to >December 31st, 2030.
-The question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution.
-All times in American Eastern Time.
-",""
"How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?","Background
==========
@@ -11627,16 +12934,6 @@ This question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for
By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually.
Resolution should cite data from the World Health Organization, United Nations or a similarly authoritative body.
",""
-"Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?","In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared ""commercially extinct"", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.
-Then, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.
-Hope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.
-Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?
-A few fine points:
----This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31.
----The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not).
----This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution.
----""Available"" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
-","Yes, No"
"Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?","In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true and when it will be resolved one way or another. Here we ask more specifically whether we can predict the behavior of the corresponding program.
Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as
collatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) where input n is a positive integer.
@@ -11658,12 +12955,6 @@ Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture:
---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/)
---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/)
","Yes, No"
-"What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?","What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?
-This question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).
-If Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.
-Note that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).
-This is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).
-",""
"What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?","The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.
What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?
Flightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.
@@ -11674,11 +12965,6 @@ The consequences of infection must be undesireable - ie, not something that coul
Will such an agent infect 100 people by 2030?
This question resolves positive if a credible medical source announces at least 100 people are confirmed ""infected"" by one or more confirmed synthetic ""biological weapon""s and that this has occured before 2030. The consequences of infection may or may not be immediately harmful. An agent can even be latent, or cause a delayed onset of disease, as long as the agent is still present and functional 24 hrs after infection (as opposed to being destroyed by the immune system). But if it causes some definite, confirmed harmful effect, and then self-destructs before 24 hrs have passed, that would still count. The infection can result from a terrorist attack, attack on enemy military personnel, an experiment, accident, with the infected persons' consent, or from any other cause.
","Yes, No"
-"In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?","For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.
-In 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be ""very strong"" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%.
-If Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?
-If no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.
-",""
"In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?","[The Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) makes charitable grants based on what could be described as [effective altruist principles](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/vision-and-values): ""global humanitarianism"", ""risk tolerance and patience"", and ""action in the face of humanity"".
More broadly, the justification for a grant could be considered to fall under ""effective altruist principles"" if it is made due to a belief that it represents among the best uses of money for improving the world, without regard to favoring a particular group, nation, species, etc., and without regard to the grantmaker's personal connection to or feelings about the cause.
In the year 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grants, on a dollar-weighted basis, be directed according to these principles?
@@ -11686,17 +12972,6 @@ The question can be judged using Open Phil's grant writups ([example](https://ww
Judging this question affirmatively does not require that people agree on whether Open Phil is succeeding according EA principles, only that it is attempting to follow them. People can reasonably disagree about which causes are the most effective.
If Open Phil makes less than $1 million in grants in 2031, the question resolves as ambiguous.
","Yes, No"
-"When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):
-For small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.
-In 2015, ""restaurant"" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners ""food for thought"" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using ""in vitro"" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?
-When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence ""pop-up"" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count.
-If the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).
-Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
-Prices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.
-Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.
-",""
"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.
In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.
When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?
@@ -11707,44 +12982,6 @@ Data
These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):
2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)
",""
-"How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?","The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.
-How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?
-This question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
-Details of the search query
-For the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in ""all fields"":
-""AI ethics"", ""AI fairness"", ""racial bias"", ""gender bias"", ""algorithmic bias""
-The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).
-The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.
-",""
-"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
-Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
-What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
-This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for May 2021.
-The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
-The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.
-In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012.
-",""
-"Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?","This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
-The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
-The model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:
---- log-uniform from 1 to 100.
---- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1.
---- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1.
---- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63).
---- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1.
---- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1.
---- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000.
-In this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.
-Predictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.
-Most estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:
----
-One must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.
----
-Also there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.
----
-We may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.
-The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
-",""
"Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
@@ -11754,15 +12991,6 @@ This question asks:
On 2030/7/1, will CarbonCure still be selling carbon storage using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
","Yes, No"
-"Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
-Various notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:
----Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist
----Voltaire, French philosopher
----Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor
-Although no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).
-Will there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?
-This resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.
-","Yes, No"
"When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?","Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer.
Some cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates)).
When will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas?
@@ -11776,30 +13004,6 @@ Positive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for
as reported by the National Cancer Institute, or any other reputable provider of medical statistics.
Historical of survival rates from all listed cancers are catalogued in [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates).
",""
-"Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?","After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.
-This has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates.
-This question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.
-Here are the top 5 ISPs for this question:
-1--
-Comcast
-2--
-Charter
-3--
-AT&T
-4--
-Verizon
-5--
-Century Link
-(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)
-","Yes, No"
-"When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?","Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.
-However, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990.
-Since then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology.
-Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.
-See [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)
-This question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?
-For the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.
-",""
"What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?","In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:
while the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.
Mark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions.
@@ -11813,26 +13017,6 @@ A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service
Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.
If no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2029 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.
",""
-"Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?","The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):
-P3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.
-According to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.
-In 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production).
-Will renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?
-Resolution
-This resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.
-Data
-Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?","Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)
-Under the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.
-[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:
----
-At least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy
----
-At least 27% increase in energy efficiency
-Will the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?
-This question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.
-","Yes, No"
"Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.","Dean Mullen and Jeff T Kaufman summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/780/).
Dean Mullen writes,
Progression in animal rights and changes in societal attitudes will lead to dramatic changes in human perspectives of and the treatment of non-human animals. This I believe will culminate in slaughterhouses being made illegal in many nations by the middle of this century and I believe the United Kingdom will be among those countries.
@@ -11877,12 +13061,6 @@ Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)
---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)
","Yes, No"
-"When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?","Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of ""CFTR Modulators"" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market.
-This was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))
-Because of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:
-When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?
-By 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.
-",""
"Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?","For roughly twenty years, since the work of Rusty Gage's group at UCSD circa 1998, neuroscientists have believed that a small amount of functionally significant neurogenesis (NG) occurs in both mammal (mice) and adult primate brains (monkeys). Adult NG was then found in a region called the hippocampus (HC) (and its subregion, the dentate gyrus, or DG). The HC is involved in short-term memory formation, and links to both our emotional centers of our brain (the amygdala) and our cerebral cortex, where our long term memories are stored.
This finding was later found for human brains by various studies, and it contradicted the previous longstanding ""dogma"" that adult brains don't form new neurons. The current leading theory of why NG occurs in the adult HC (if it does) is that it isn't some kind of regulatory failure (cancer, etc.) but that plays some functional role, perhaps in short-term memory storage.
In some neuroscience models, we are thought to store massive amounts of info in our HC over the last day or two of our lives, in synaptic connections, and we are also thought to flush this store out regularly, with only a subset of those memories being ""written to the cortex"" for long-term storage, usually while we dream and sleep. Adult NG is presumed by some to help this somehow, or play some other functional role.
@@ -11898,22 +13076,6 @@ NG doesn't exist in significant numbers in older humans, or if it does occur it
Assuming we find out by 2028, which will it be? Resolution is positive for option 1.
Resolves positive if a definitive study or set of studies best accords with option 1, negative if it best accords with option 2. We'll define ""definitive"" as at least one study published in a top-tier journal (top 10 in the field by impact factor) with strong evidence for 1 or 2, along with the absence of a competitively compelling publication giving evidence for the other possibility, as of Jan 1 2028. Resolves ambiguous if not definitive.
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?","As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.
-Currently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).
-On January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service?
-This question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.
-Resolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.
-",""
-"How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?","Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.
-How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?
-See also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)
-",""
-"When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?","News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.
-With much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).
-Sometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:
-When will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?
-We want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.
-",""
"What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?","Since 2013, the Federal Reserve Board has conducted the [Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm), which measures the economic well-being of U.S. households and identifies potential risks to their finances. The survey includes modules on a range of topics of current relevance to financial well-being including credit access and behaviors, savings, retirement, economic fragility, and education and student loans.
Since its first edition in 2013, the SHED has [included a question about whether or not the survey participant could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money.](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2018-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2017-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm)
In 2013, only 50% of survey participants said that they could do so. (See Figure 11 in the link above.) That number has slowly but steadily improved over time. In 2017, the most recent year for which figures are available as of January 16 2019, 59% of survey participants said they could do so.
@@ -11921,12 +13083,6 @@ This question asks: In the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking cond
In the event that this survey is renamed or discontinued but the same question is asked by another survey conducted by either the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury, this question should remain active. If no such survey is conducted for the year 2020, this question shall resolve ambiguously.
In the event that the dollar value in question is changed by more than 5% in real terms (linked to 2019 dollars), this question shall resolve ambiguously.
",""
-"What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?","Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.
-In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.
-In a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?
-Resolution
-For the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition ""I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs"". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.
-",""
"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.
As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.
@@ -11938,13 +13094,6 @@ In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the m
",""
"What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?","World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.
",""
-"Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?","Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.
-He rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.
-Jones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running ""to be a watchdog on the inside"" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.
-This question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?
-The question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.
-The question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.
-","Yes, No"
"How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?","Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election.
A number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021.
How many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026?
@@ -11954,11 +13103,6 @@ Voting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g.
At least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising <70% of the country's population do not suffice.
Resolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary.
",""
-"When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?","IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.
-[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.
-When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?
-Resolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.
-",""
"Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?","Animal Charity Evaluators is a non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals, much like GiveWell does so for the global health and development charity sector. ACE updates their [recommendations](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/) at the end of November each year. The evaluation process is described in ""[Evaluation Charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/)"", the evaluation criteria are described in ""[Evaluation Criteria](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/evaluating-charities/evaluation-criteria/)"".
As of November 2020, the [Good Food Fund](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-review/good-food-fund/), which primarily operates in China, has been rated as a Standout Charity by ACE, i.e., the level below ""Top Charity"".
Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?
@@ -11988,11 +13132,6 @@ Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if a ne
For the purposes of this question, the country that builds the lunar lander will receive credit for the soft landing; the rocket or payload such as rovers may be provided by (US, Russia, China).
Resolution is positive if SpaceIL (or, much less likely, another Israeli effort) is the next non-(US, Russia, China) country to achieve a gentle landing of a spacecraft on the Moon before December 31, 2025; it is negative if a non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before Israel and before December 31, 2025; it is ambiguous if no non-(US, Russia, China) country achieves a gentle landing before December 31, 2025.
","Yes, No"
-"Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?","The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.
-There are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate ""Voynichese"" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).
-This question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050.
-It resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050.
-","Yes, No"
"When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.
Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.
Tesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. ""I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year"" -Elon Musk in April 2019.
@@ -12013,6 +13152,11 @@ Similar questions:
---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff.
---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken.
",""
+"Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?","The [Voynich manuscript](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voynich_manuscript) is a hand-written codex which, according to carbon dating, originated in the 15th century. To this day, it is not known for certain whether the manuscript contains meaningful text or gibberish, let alone what language(s) it is written in or what the text might say.
+There are a few claimed solutions every year. Most recently there has been buzz about [a University of Bristol academic](https://phys.org/news/2019-05-bristol-academic-voynich-code-century-old.html) who claimed to have found a way to transliterate ""Voynichese"" to a form of Vulgar Latin. Like all other decipherment claims to date, this is not widely accepted by the Voynich expert community (as judging by the reactions on the [voynich.ninja](https://voynich.ninja/thread-2763.html) forum and [/r/linguistics](https://old.reddit.com/r/linguistics/comments/bouuhu/bristol_academic_cracks_voynich_code_solving/)).
+This question resolves positively if an attempt at deciphering and translating the main text of the Voynich manuscript is widely accepted as correct by experts by the end of 2050.
+It resolves negatively if no Voynich decipherment attempt is widely accepted by the end of 2050, or if the document is widely accepted as a hoax/gibberish by the end of 2050.
+","Yes, No"
"What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?","The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is [""the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations.""](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/). It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019.
This question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?
In 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/).
@@ -12034,19 +13178,6 @@ All that said, Wadlow came within just 1 inch of 9 feet tall. Surely, some perso
More specifically, by 2075 will Guinness (or some comparable replacement or alternative) record a > 9' tall human?
9 foot = 274 cm
","Yes, No"
-"Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?","Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.
-What is the ultimate fate of the ""stuff"" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.
-After we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.
-But what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:
----
-We could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.
----
-A [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.
----
-Protons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.
-What do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time?
-Question ""resolves"" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)
-","Yes, No"
"Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_at_Every_Size),
Health at Every Size (HAES) is a hypothesis advanced by certain sectors of the fat acceptance movement. It is promoted by the Association for Size Diversity and Health, a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that owns the phrase as a registered trademark. Proponents reject the scientific consensus regarding the negative health effects of greater body weight, and argue that traditional interventions focused on weight loss, such as dieting, do not reliably produce positive health outcomes. The benefits of lifestyle interventions such as nutritious eating and exercise are presumed to be real, but independent of any weight loss they may cause. At the same time, HAES advocates argue that sustained, large-scale weight loss is difficult to the point of effective impossibility for the majority of people, including those who are obese.
Advocates of the Health at Every Size hypothesis sometimes cite a [2013 meta analysis](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23280227/) which found that mildly overweight people (by BMI) had lower all-cause mortality than people in the normal weight group. This result has also been picked up by prominent researchers. From UC Berkeley's blog, [Ask The Dietitian](https://uhs.berkeley.edu/news/ask-dietitian-health-every-size),
@@ -12067,27 +13198,6 @@ Discontinued the recommendation to aim for a normal weight range.
Made the claim that there is no evidence that overweight people are at greater risk of disease than people of normal weight, or a claim very similar to this one.
This question resolves ambiguously if the CDC disbands.
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
-They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
-This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
-Stripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)
-This question asks:
-On 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?
-This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above.
-If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.
-If Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.
-If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
-*As judged by a metaculus admin.
-",""
-"Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?","Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)
-a brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.
-It was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation.
-Alcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.
-A common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and ""[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)"" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)
-Rather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.
-Will Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?
-Resolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
-","Yes, No"
"When will we have a new Pope?","When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam).
This question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting.
If the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as >2036-12-17.
@@ -12144,19 +13254,13 @@ What will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-t
Suppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points.
Ambiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?","[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)
-Technosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.
-When will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?
-By 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.
-This question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.
-",""
-"Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?","In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.
-On 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)
-Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?
-This question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:
----Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution)
----2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution)
----Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution)
+"Will Catalonia become an independent state?","The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.
+[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.
+With talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.
+This question asks:
+Will Catalonia will be an independent state within 5 years of this vote?
+Question resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.
+Resolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.
","Yes, No"
"For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?","Context
=======
@@ -12183,10 +13287,6 @@ This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/quest
[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)
[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)
",""
-"How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?","Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.
-This question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?
-Question resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.
-",""
"What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?","A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).
Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).
@@ -12211,51 +13311,11 @@ Hyper-Kamiokande is about 10 times larger than SK [Super-Kamiokande] and it can
What do you think? Will we discover proton decay before 2040?
Question resolves positive if experimental evidence for proton decay is published in a top peer-reviewed journal prior to 2040.
","Yes, No"
-"When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?","A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.
-Since a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.
-The question asks:
-When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?
-This question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:
-1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client.
-2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States.
-3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides.
-The rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.
-Similar questions:
----[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/)
----[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/)
----By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area.
----The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course).
----The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service.
----The client must pay for the trip.
----The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff.
----The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken.
-",""
-"What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?","Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.
-Reduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons.
-What will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?
-Resolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.
-",""
-"When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?","Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).
-As the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.
-When will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.
-A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).
-",""
"How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?","Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI.
Oren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary.
This question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) prediction.
If the silver Turing test has not been passed by 2026 (the date limit set [by the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/)), I will post a new version of that question using the prediction time series format and resolving 2075. Then the resolution of this question will depend on the resolution of the new silver Turing test question.
",""
-"Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?","In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.
-So how does one define that demarcation?
-Theodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.
-In practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way.
-[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.
-The FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.
-Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?
-This will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.
-","Yes, No"
"Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?","We often take the advance of IT technology for granted and even believe it to be progressing at an exponential rate. While Moore's Law has (by some definitions) continued to hold, the data economists have generated when they estimated [the amount of investment required to have equal quality IT equipment over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B935RG3Q086SBEA), reveals that in some sense progress has slowed down. While quality progress was exponential for a long time too, the last approximately ten years have not been all that great.
The inverse of the linked-to index can be seen as a kind of estimation of the quality of information technology at a given time. (The predictor is encouraged to export the data into excel and look at the evolution of the inverse of the index and the percentage improvement over the last 8 years over time.)
For example(s), the percentage increase in quality between Q1 1990 and Q1 1998 was 333.5%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2000 and Q1 2008 was 172.6%; the percentage increase in quality between Q1 2010 and Q1 2018 was 11.2%. Will the percentage increase in quality over an 8-year time period fall below 0% prior to 2030? Or will progress pick up again to the pace it was at in the 1990s?
@@ -12268,57 +13328,11 @@ Should this occur anyway, the question should be retroactively closed the day be
---
Should the link be discontinued, a reasonable effort should be made to find the same index from another reputable source, yet should the index not be findable, the question shall resolve ambiguous.
","Yes, No"
-"When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?","Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ).
-Research suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ).
-However, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ).
-The limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone.
-However, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability.
-Positive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.
-",""
-"If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research.
-This is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)
-Here we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders.
-Question resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.
-Resolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.
-Some fine print:
----
-The fine print from [this question](http://(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with ""MCAI"" substituted for ""GPT-3"" and ""5th graders"" substituted for ""4th graders"".
----
-If there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.
----
-The entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?","related questions on Metaculus:
----
-[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)
----
-[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)
-Cryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications.
-Bitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.
-What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?
-This question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.
-",""
"When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?","In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio). This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf).
When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus?
Resolution
Types 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This [actually happened](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-08-2016-government-of-nigeria-reports-2-wild-polio-cases-first-since-july-2014) in Nigeria in 2016, two years after the prior last reported natural cases in Africa.) This property of the virus has caused some reticence by the WHO about certifying the eradication--the last known type 2 case was in 1999, but [the WHO didn't certify it until 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). If another wild strain of type 2 or 3 re-emerges before the WHO certifies the worldwide eradication of type 1, this question will not be resolved until the WHO certifies the eradication of type 1 AND recertifies the eradication of the re-emergent type (or publicly declines to de-certify the earlier eradication).
",""
-"Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?","Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020.
-The company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.
-More details can be found here:
----[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db)
----[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal)
-Markus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.
-This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:
----Markus Braun
----Jan Marsalek
----Alexander von Knoop
----Susanne Steidl
----Jan Marsalek
----Oliver Bellenhaus
-The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.
-Convictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment
-","Yes, No"
"Who will win the 'worm wars'?","According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained).
In GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions.
Givewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts:
@@ -12345,91 +13359,6 @@ If GiveWell ceases to exist in a similar form, such that neither of the conditio
---
Some of the text in this question has been adapted from [this](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FAA22RbfgC68fRnRs/if-you-mostly-believe-in-worms-what-should-you-think-about) EA forum post, by the same author.
","Yes, No"
-"Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?","Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death.
-Thus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group.
-Internationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)
-These efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:
-By 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported?
-Here we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.
-","Yes, No"
-"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
-[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
-Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
-Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.
-How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
-Details of the search query
-For the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in ""all fields"". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
-The [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):
-Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.
-Running this query for previous years gives:
----2,397 for the calendar year 2017
----3,726 for the calendar year 2018
----5,390 for the calendar year 2019
----7,127 for the calendar year 2020
-",""
-"How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?","[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty.
-On the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to ""doing the most good"" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.
-How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?
-This question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757
-If the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.
-This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE.
-",""
-"When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?","[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users)
-[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)
-When will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?
-Resolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.
-",""
-"How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?","Background
-==========
-
-Economic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020.
-Young workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008.
-As young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.
-How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.
-The number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.
-",""
-"Will a recession cause ""suicides by the thousands""?","In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [""suicides by the thousands.""](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!
-[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.
-If the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?
-For purposes of this question:
----A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States.
----If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously.
----The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?","The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S.
-In this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:
-Average weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment.
-For historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).
-Resolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.
-This question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).
-",""
-"When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?","On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space.
-On 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.
-On 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.
-India plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.
-That’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.
-Part of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:
-When will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?
-For the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.
-",""
-"When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954):
-When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think.
-Bringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to ""within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.""
-Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).
-When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.
-Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
-The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
-Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
-",""
"Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?","The [many-worlds interpretation](https://www.hedweb.com/manworld.htm#what) is a theory for explaining our observations from quantum experiments. It posits that reality consists entirely of a [universal wavefunction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_wavefunction) that deterministically obeys the [Schrodinger equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger_equation) (or some other wave equation). The apparent probabilistic nature of quantum experiments is normally explained by appealing to a non-rigorous concept of macroscopic worlds where each possible result of a quantum experiment happens in one of these worlds. However, ""worlds"" are merely convenient abstractions, and are not fundamental to the theory's main statement.
The other names of the many-worlds interpretation include ""the relative state formulation"", ""the Everett interpretation"", and ""the theory of the universal wavefunction.""
This question resolves positively if by 1/1/2050 a poll of professional physicists with at least 100 responses reveals that more than half accept the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, as I have described above. The results from the poll must be published in some reliable document or blog post, and must not be informal. If no such poll is released by 1/1/2050, then this question resolves negatively.
@@ -12451,26 +13380,6 @@ This question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of n
In the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.
If SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
-They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
-This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
-Stripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.
-[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.
-This question asks:
-On 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?
-This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.
-","Yes, No"
-"In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?","Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:
-1--global poverty: 39%
-2--cause prioritization: 24%
-3--meta: 23%
-4--animal welfare: 8%
-5--long term future: 6%
-In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?
-Donation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.
-The set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.
-If global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.
-",""
"Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?","A novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in southeast England in November 2020. A [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf) suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.
We estimate that VOC 202012/01 is 56% more transmissible (95% credible interval across three regions 50-74%) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2.
Another variant under concern is [501.V2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_Variant), which was first detected in South Africa and reported by the country's health department on 18 December 2020. The COVID-19 [South African Online Portal](https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2020/12/18/update-on-covid-19-18th-december-2020/?__cf_chl_captcha_tk__=be2f838cf56453016ad7dbf99d77089d843aa3ff-1609007372-0-AUbF61m4dEBXtFnkpTnnvmtcjtHti_qPvax6cPxQzAFDxaV-R06OYnJr8531gWrxW_KCmQkwWC7zPXDZJ3Zr0Av7VAP4jfcldxXQQuP-MSv4sSDuWGGQpvqeNModhOt7ffu6MfAq9pXJT0Ng1RDuKzM1uKwccOxvlqdn_yZd27ZLDoRiqvei1L5GJaSgT201h-fASs6kpdFwwIczWtWPne2LJirpkhlwBpjrF71BIyJTjAoOHbQ-GRlwXaTarIl6CoB210bGi_Hz7rPH43tH9bXjfzoVqeu8QIyBaLwgIEKrFTwhPu3ZFJmPQOySnKf5jQKnMtpL31NN1NMomLTOjU-5LjSrnF4QyGxAleR0z6kBS9e9WAUF-1Hd5sNy3hvhA0NbQ2Y_yHYCxkyLEn0IzblQQjQG-tVhINX4f6GpXDjmYjX7E4oauOBCeBUlR90g7P7MXnWqTo1uR9GOZID7O0TjXLBjCrHEmubestb86aX6Xo-k97BuleDvPqlCKLwZeE8KyQhPNtxbumChNDbfP-ookZPoggxaDhlTbfdeJrRAwcR8a_K3bfV1SeNsUbpCuXrI5EXpl-ZFdgswtx1Ug5TF0Y9YeCvbs7vxVihTyQCIOeF8732weBd7tplBJKVjvL6s1Gj4rZVbn_5AHYbuvG8) has suggested that the aforementioned variant is driving an increase of new cases:
@@ -12526,19 +13435,6 @@ Related Questions
---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/)
---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/)
",""
-"Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.
-Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?
-This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.
-Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
-Note: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).
-If, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.
-If the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.
-In case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:
-1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01,
-2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and
-3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party.
-If, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.
-","Yes, No"
"After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?","Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),
Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.
Nick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),
@@ -12579,26 +13475,6 @@ While deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely becaus
How many DALYs will be estimated to be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?
Resolution will be by the [Global Burden of Disease Study](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool), by adding the figures for the risks 'Ambient ozone pollution' and 'Ambient particulate matter pollution', or a similar reliable dataset if the IHME ceases to publish global disease figures.
",""
-"How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?","Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online.
-In 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.
-[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).
-This question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.
-As reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022?
-Linear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.
-",""
-"By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years","In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.
-This question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*
-By January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).
-The prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).
-Metaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.
---
-*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).
-","Yes, No"
-"How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?","The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).
-Over the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.
-How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?
-Resolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.
-",""
"What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?","This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate an alternative perspective.
A [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is ""a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals."" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/public/charitable/home)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.
Sponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs refusing to use donated money as directed[1] or using donated money for its own benefit. To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.
@@ -12615,6 +13491,32 @@ The following situations do not qualify as expropriation:
[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.
[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.
",""
+"Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?","According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:
+1--Emma
+2--Olivia
+3--Ava
+4--Isabella
+5--Sophia
+6--Amelia
+7--Mia
+8--Charlotte
+9--Harper
+10-Mila
+The most popular baby names for boys are:
+1--Liam
+2--Noah
+3--Logan
+4--Oliver
+5--Mason
+6--Lucas
+7--Ethan
+8--Elijah
+9--Aiden
+10-James
+If history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now.
+Will any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?
+For the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.
+","Yes, No"
"What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?","Context
=======
@@ -12644,13 +13546,6 @@ These two Metaculus questions are relevant:
Also see [this Wikipedia article on Marathon world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression)
This question asks, what will be the best marathon time completed by a human before 2035, in seconds (rounded to the nearest second), according to Guinness World Records?
",""
-"When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?","The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.
-Since that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most ""veteran"" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.
-When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?
----This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet.
----The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same ""B10XX"" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that ""this stage previously flew the ABC mission"", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion.
----For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control.
-",""
"How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?","Background
==========
@@ -12674,25 +13569,6 @@ Data:
Data on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires.
Historical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.
",""
-"Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?","The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),
-LSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”
-This prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?
-Define a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a ""transformer"" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,
-Is it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?
-After one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer ""Yes"".
-Either of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:
-1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase
-language model ""state of the art""
-Take the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.
-OR
-2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025.
-Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?","The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.
-This question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
-* ""military personnel"" here includes the Coast Guard.
-""conscription"" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.
-","Yes, No"
"At what point will at least ten technologies listed on ""The Rejuvenation Roadmap"" be released to the public?","The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which
aims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologies in development and chart their progress in one easy to read format.
As of writing, it lists 42 technologies, of which several aim to provide effective anti-aging effects.
@@ -12702,30 +13578,6 @@ This question resolves ambiguously if:
---The archive of the roadmap becomes unavailable.
---Enough of the concerned technologies are abandoned that this question cannot resolve positively anymore.
",""
-"When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?","In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954):
-When will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think.
-Bringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to ""within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.""
-Mosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).
-When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.
-Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.
-The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
-Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
-Related questions:
-[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
-[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
-[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
-[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)
-",""
-"What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?","Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).
-Researchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).
-What is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?
-This question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026.
-A single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.
-In case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.
-This question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.
-",""
"What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.
@@ -12775,25 +13627,6 @@ In 2029, will the US have as many or fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?
This resolves positive if credible sources, such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)) reports that the US held fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads at any time in 2029. A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.
See also the related question, [If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/)
","Yes, No"
-"What will the commercial real estate vacancy rate be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?","Context
-=======
-
-The coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May.
-As of mid-May, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report.
-Last month the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:
-Commercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively.
-According to a recent [National Association of Realtors survey](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%.
-
-Question
-========
-
-What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?
-
-Resolution
-==========
-
-This question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).
-",""
"Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?","[The Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) (VEI) is a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. It was devised by Chris Newhall of the United States Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982.
Volume of products, eruption cloud height, and qualitative observations (using terms ranging from ""gentle"" to ""mega-colossal"") are used to determine the explosivity value. The scale is open-ended with the largest volcanoes in history given magnitude 8. A value of 0 is given for non-explosive eruptions, defined as less than 10,000 m^3 (350,000 cu ft) of tephra ejected; and 8 representing a mega-colossal explosive eruption that can eject 1.0×1012 m^3 (240 cubic miles) of tephra and have a cloud column height of over 20 km (66,000 ft).
The scale is logarithmic, with each interval on the scale representing a tenfold increase in observed ejecta criteria, with the exception of between VEI 0, VEI 1 and VEI 2.
@@ -12833,14 +13666,6 @@ We thus ask:
Will a definitive biosignature be detected on K2-18b?
Resolution is by a measurement and an independent confirming measurement published in the peer-reviewed literature. Positive resolutions are provided by (1) O2 detected in the atmosphere with false positives ruled out, or (2) observation of a significant chemical disequilibrium between CH4 and CO2 in an anoxic atmosphere. Ideally, however, we don't want to limit the question to just these conditions, and moreover, knowledge in the field is advancing quickly. Discussion leading to an improved set of resolution criteria is thus requested. We will consider a time horizon covering the next decade (ending January 1, 2030). There appears to be limited benefit to waiting longer, since K2-18b is close to its star, so it is unlikely to be resolvable by future direct imaging instruments.
","Yes, No"
-"When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?","Background
-[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.
-An [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).
-Resolution
-This question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination.
-The admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.
-The AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.
-",""
"If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?","[The James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST or ""Webb"") is a space telescope in construction that will be the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope. The JWST will provide greatly improved resolution and sensitivity over the Hubble, and will enable a broad range of investigations across the fields of astronomy and cosmology. The JWST's is currently scheduled for March 2021.
One of its goals is observing the most distant events and objects in the universe, such as the formation of the first galaxies. Other goals include understanding the formation of stars and planets, and direct imaging of exoplanets and novas. ([See also JWST YouTube channel for further information](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=073GwPbyFxE)).
Development began in 1996, but the project has had numerous delays and cost overruns with current budget estimated at around $10 billion. A major source of worry is deployment process. For example, in March 2018, NASA delayed the JWST's launch after the telescope's sunshield ripped during a practice deployment.
@@ -12867,20 +13692,6 @@ Data sources and more information:
What will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?
This question will resolve as the percentage of US S:N501 sequences among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing to the GISAID database between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive), as displayed on the ""Distribution of S:N501 per country"" plot on following website: [https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). This website pulls data from GISAID and makes it publicly accessible. This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-12.
",""
-"How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?","At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting:
-Governments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.
-The annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.
-According to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:
----40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance)
----34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance)
----24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance)
-How much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are <25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.
-Data
-World Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
-*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.
-",""
"Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?","The [International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER) is an international nuclear fusion research and engineering megaproject. It is an experimental [tokamak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak) nuclear fusion reactor which will be the world's largest magnetic confinement plasma physics experiment.
With thirty-five participating nations and an expected price tag [in excess of €20 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER#Funding), it is one of the largest international [scientific megaprojects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Science_projects).
ITER began in 1985 as a Reagan–Gorbachev initiative with the equal participation of the Soviet Union, the European Atomic Energy Community, the United States, and Japan through the 1988–1998 initial design phases.
@@ -12908,23 +13719,6 @@ This question resolves positively if both Uber and Lyft are operating in Califor
For the sake of this question, ""operating in California"" is taken to mean that, in at least one city, general consumers can receive Uber and Lyft rides.
Determination is made via credible media reports.
","Yes, No"
-"When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?","The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).
-However, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).
-Some futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.
-This question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?
-This question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.
-The resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.
-This question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.
-""Humanity"" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.
-Related Questions:
----[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/)
-",""
-"How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?","[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.
-This question asks:
-How many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?
-To count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date.
-If HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question.
-",""
"Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?","The sub-2 hour marathon has obsessed the running community for years.
In 2017, Nike launched an experiment to see whether at least one of 3 elite marathoners might be able to break through this barrier under ideal training and racing conditions. Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya came achingly close, putting up a time just 25 seconds short of the mark.
One line of thinking suggests that, once this barrier is shattered, we’ll start seeing sub-2 hour times crop up regularly. Brad Wilkins, Nike’s director of NXT Generation Research [said as much](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/06/health/sub-two-hour-marathon-nike/index.html) to CNN
@@ -12958,10 +13752,6 @@ How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute repo
This question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.
In case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024.
",""
-"How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?","The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).
-One reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.
-Resolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)
-",""
"Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?","[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.
[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.
[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.
@@ -12983,63 +13773,11 @@ Resolution
This question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.
The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
",""
-"Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?","A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.
-We live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states ""judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour""; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.
-Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?
-The question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.
-An impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?","Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf).
-Recently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.
-[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.
-When will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?
-This question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.
-",""
-"Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?","Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth.
-Consider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html):
-Malaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa.
-How do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).
-Writing in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):
-I hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.
-We have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.
-But the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).
-As Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/):
-In theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).
-Ahh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically:
-Before the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive?
-The positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)
-","Yes, No"
"Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?","[The United States of America spends significantly more in absolute terms on its defense than any other country,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) and this has been the case since World War II. In 2017, US military spending accounted for some $610 billion, 35% of global military spending in that year.
Will any country spend more on its military / defense in a given year before (and including) 2030 than the United States spends in the same year?
Resolution should cite official budget figures from the United States and the other country in question. Resolves ambiguously if before a positive resolution results there ceases to be a country known as the United States.
Our comparison will use three-year average of exchange rates to smooth effects of transitory exchange rate fluctuations.
","Yes, No"
-"When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?","A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.
-Get past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.
-(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))
-If SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L3 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L3 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L3 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.
-More information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)
-Related questions:
----[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
----[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/)
-[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.
-",""
-"Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?","In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.
-The decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.
-In the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.
-This question asks:
-Will Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar.
-Since there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.
-A positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).
-","Yes, No"
-"What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond.
-However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).
-The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].
-Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?
-What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?
-This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.
-As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.
-",""
"Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?","In 2017, a team of astronomers predicted ([technical paper](http://www.calvin.edu/academic/phys/observatory/MergingStar/MolnarEtAl2017.pdf)) that the binary stars KIC 9832227 will spiral in and collide in the year 2022.2, plus or minus 0.6. They predict that the result will be a [""luminous red nova""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminous_red_nova), a type of nova produced by star collisions. [News reports](http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/colliding-stars-will-light-night-sky-2022) say it could be the brightest object in the night sky! However, whether we actually see it in the night sky will depend on the time of year.
Greg Egan [wrote:](https://plus.google.com/113086553300459368002/posts/PNTa3JwEdj4)
Given that nobody knows exactly when this will happen, the main thing that determines how many people are likely to be able to see it is the declination, 46° N. So anyone in the northern hemisphere will have a good chance ... while for someone like me, at 31° S, the odds aren't great: it will never rise higher than 13° above the northern horizon, for me.
@@ -13048,55 +13786,6 @@ If that happens, I guess the only comfort is that there are still sure to be tel
So, will there be a Nova from KIC 9832227?
Resolution is positive if a Nova at the location of KIC 9832227 reaches at least visual magnitude 6 (barely visible) during the calendar year of 2021 or 2022. (So the question is addressing primarily whether it will happen, rather than when.)
","Yes, No"
-"How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?","Context
-=======
-
-As of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.
-Talkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.
-Out of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.
-
-Question
-========
-
-How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?
-
-Resolution
-==========
-
-Here ""Schedule I drugs"" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).
-For the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).
-Situations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.
-""Country"" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.
-",""
-"Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).
-Amongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:
-1--
-[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images.
-2--
-[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.
-3--
-[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.
-4--
-[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.
-5--
-[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.
-Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?
-The question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.
-In 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:
----
-ImageNet: 99
----
-STL-10: 24
----
-CIFAR-10: 20
----
-CIFAR-100: 18
----
-MNIST: 10
-Hence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.
-The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.
-Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported.
-",""
"What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?","Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics.
We use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).
However, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020.
@@ -13105,26 +13794,6 @@ The US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions]
What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?
Resolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.
",""
-"What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?","From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),
-Gross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP
-In the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?
-What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?
-This question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.
-",""
-"How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?","Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy.
-Europe is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390).
-Growth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020.
-Projections have [historically underestimated](http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur) estimate actual growth, however. The prices of PV energy continues to fall (see related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/321/1-dollarwatt-solar-energy-by-2020/)) and projection methodologies may in some cases fail to capture factors such as transformative technologies that may further drive PV growth.
-How much global solar photovoltaic electricity-generating capacity, in gigawatts, will be in operation by 2020?
-The definitive source for question resolution will be the annual ""[Trends](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3)"" report from the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org)'s [Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme](https://www.iea.org/tcp/renewables/pvps/). Because the report covers trends up to the year previous, resolution will be dependent on the report to be issued in late 2021. If this report should cease publication or substantially change its methodology, question resolves as ambiguous.
-",""
-"Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?","The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).
-Several contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.
-At present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.
-The question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?
-Question resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.
-Question resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.
-","Yes, No"
"When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?","Context
=======
@@ -13149,40 +13818,6 @@ Related questions
---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/)
---[When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-nuclear-fusion-reactor-hit-an-economic-breakeven/)
",""
-"If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?","The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:
----1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which
-------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles,
-------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States,
-------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe.
----2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises.
-It is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.
-If the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?
-This resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.
-This question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.
-See also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)
-",""
-"When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?","Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth).
-Recently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.
-When will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?
-In order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:
-1--
-Unconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. ""all citizens over the age of 18""). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).
-2--
-Substantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.
-3--
-Guaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count.
-4--
-Ongoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.
-Additional details:
----
-If a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country.
----
-""Country"" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A ""virtual nation"" or territory would not count.
----
-The payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.
----
-The question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms ""country"" ""person"" and ""income"" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.
-",""
"What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?","The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has [increased over the past 3 years](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/912781/2019_Table_1_New_STI_diagnoses_and_rates_in_England_by_gender.ods).
However, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic [might affect the epidemiology of STIs](https://sti.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/12/sextrans-2020-054543).
How will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent?
@@ -13190,45 +13825,12 @@ The question will resolve according to the annual report published by the UK gov
This question will resolve specifically according to the ""% change 2019-2020"" for the row ""Total new STI diagnoses - total"". This total refers to the total percentage change, across both genders, in the numbers of all reported STIs.
If this data is no longer reported for 2020 or the methodology significantly changes, the question resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.
-The [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.
-In 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into ""intrinsic rewards"" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with ""intrinsic rewards"" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without ""intrinsic rewards"" only explored 2 out of 24.
-In Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [""artificial curiosity""](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908).
-We ask:
-When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?
-As of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) & [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0).
-Resolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).
-",""
-"Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles","Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation.
-What global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?
-We'll add these all up to ask:
-What percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030?
-Resolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.
-",""
-"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?","As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.
-What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?
-The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.
-",""
"Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary?","On July 21, 1969 at 02:56:15 UTC Neil Armstrong stepped onto the surface on the Moon, uttering his famous line, ""one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind.""
Regrettably, since then progress in space exploration has slowed and as of 2017 humanity has not yet reached the logical next step in the exploration of the final frontier: Mars. Many [manned mars missions were planned](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manned_Mars_mission_plans#List), the earliest suggested in 1952, with a planned launch year of 1965. Currently, the most interesting planned mission is probably the one from SpaceX (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/)), which has a highly ambitious 2024 launch year. Meanwhile, NASA is planning to reach Mars in 2033.
It is asked:Will a living human set their foot on the surface of Mars prior to July 21, 2069 at 02:56:15 UTC?
Resolution is by credible media report. Note that the requirements for a positive resolution are less strict than those laid out by Kennedy for the race to the moon in 1961, as getting humans back to earth alive is not required for this question.
Closing time has been symbolically set to the 50th anniversary of the first Moon landing: July 21, 2019 at 02:56.
","Yes, No"
-"When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?","Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns.
-[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%.
-When will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either:
-1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2).
-2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data.
-*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:
-1--
-Published in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning
-2--
-Cites Niven and Kao
-3--
-Pre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)
-If the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.
-",""
"Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?","At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.
In its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this.
On December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare.
@@ -13243,22 +13845,6 @@ Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before
This will resolve on the basis of whether a “public option” is created that allows any American to buy into a Medicare-like government insurance plan. Such an expansion of the ACA would have to be passed by Congress and signed into law by the President.
A public option that is limited to certain groups of people — for instance, only those over 50 years of age — would count for resolution.
","Yes, No"
-"Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?","It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)
-As of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.
-It is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?
-To avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?","Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).
-Will the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?
-Note that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.
-","Yes, No"
-"Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?","Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.
-[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.
-In 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.
-Countries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free.
-How many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?
-This number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.
-",""
"How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?","The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant uncertainty about the upcoming [National Football League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League) season.
In a typical season, there would be 256 games played -- 16 games played between 32 teams over a 17-week period. As of June 25, the schedule released by the NFL includes all 256 games.
How many total games will be played in 2020-2021 regular season?
@@ -13286,33 +13872,10 @@ If Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he wo
Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?
This question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.
","Yes, No"
-"When will the next Qatari general election be held?","Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.
-When will Qatar hold its first legislative election?
-If there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.
-",""
"When will the next human being walk on the Moon?","In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.
Less than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and at this writing no human being has walked on the Moon since.
When will the next human being walk on the Moon?
",""
-"Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?","The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):
-In the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.
-Among [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):
-[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy
-Unsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.
-Will the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024?
-Resolution is positive if by major media account ""first light"" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
-Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
-The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable.
-As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is
-kNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.
-An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.
-What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?
-This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
-",""
"Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?","The [Federal Republic of Nigeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria) is a federal republic in West Africa, bordering Niger in the north, Chad in the northeast, Cameroon in the east, and Benin in the west.
Nigeria is often referred to as the ""Giant of Africa"", owing to its large population and economy. With more than [199 million](http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/nigeria-population/) inhabitants, Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the seventh most populous country in the world. Nigeria has the third-largest youth population in the world, after India and China, with more than 90 million of its population under age 18. As of 2017, Nigeria [had the fastest growing population of the 10 most populous countries worldwide.](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/nigeria-pass-u-s-world-s-3rd-most-populous-country-n775371)
Nigeria also has the [world's largest number of extremely poor people, with 87 million.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/six-people-fall-into-extreme-poverty-in-this-nation-every-minute?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-tictoc&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_content=tictoc&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social) Today, Nigeria ranks 157 out of 189 countries in the [UN Human Development Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index), which measures indicators such as health and inequality. Life expectancy is still only 54 years, although that’s an improvement from 46 years in 1999.
@@ -13341,32 +13904,6 @@ About [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lif
In any event, what's your take? In what month and year will scientists receive the last credible signal from this amazing machine before it's lost forever to the void?
Question will resolve to the time of the last signal received, after no signal has been received for one year.
",""
-"What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?","The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant.
-Globally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception.
-A [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.
-What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?
-Resolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.
-",""
-"What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?","One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).
-To shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:
-What will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?
-Resolution
----
-This question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.
----
-This question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.
----
-For the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.
----
-For the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).
----
-To be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.
-",""
-"Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?","There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)
-[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.
-Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?
-A credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.
-","Yes, No"
"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?","Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this ""general"" intelligence has remained elusive.
AI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.
But there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to ""High level machine intelligence"" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.
@@ -13394,109 +13931,6 @@ Metaculus team should ask the AI:
2--Should the question ""Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?"" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative?
This question will resolve no sooner than the question ""[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)"". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.
","Yes, No"
-"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.
-In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.
-In the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.
-When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)):
-1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase.
-2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants.
-In the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.
-If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?
-The question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.
-This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
-1--
-[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-2--
-[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-3--
-[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-4--
-[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
-Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
-5--
-[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
-6--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
-7--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
-8--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
-9--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
-10-
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
-All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?","Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. [This government webpage](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing#seeing-friends-and-family) gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.
-The Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for [""any longer than we have to""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54102872). But how long will this be?
-That is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?
-The question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.
-The question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings.
-",""
-"What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.
-[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.
-It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.
-What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?
-The official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous
-Related Questions:
-[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)
-",""
-"Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?","Context
-
-Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)
-This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-
-This resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:
----The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked.
----While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches.
----All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC).
-This will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.
-Any conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.
-Conflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.
-Deaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?","Background
-==========
-
-The gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers.
-In 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.
-“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”
-In case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods.
-Moreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).
-When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?
-
-Resolution Criteria
-===================
-
-Resolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).
-When unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.
-",""
-"PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.
-Background
-The many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.
-In the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward"" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?
-Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the percent of all respondents that ""accept"" or ""lean toward"" the answer ""many-worlds"" on the ""Quantum mechanics"" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.
-The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
-",""
-"Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?","Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [""verbal approval""](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)
-But other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1).
-Although implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.
-Will the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?
-This question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.
-""Commerical Operations"" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?","Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.
-Resolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?","Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).
-A commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).
-When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?
-For the purposes of this question, ""available from a grocery store"" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.
-",""
"How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
@@ -13537,55 +13971,6 @@ Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition sh
Prices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.
Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.
",""
-"If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?","In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes
-A simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.
-This question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.
-If a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.
-If no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?","According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.
-Over the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.
-What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).
-For the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .
-Data
-Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
-",""
-"By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?","In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)).
-The key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.
-The main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))
-There is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):
-Animals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations.
-Accordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.
-Advocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).
-However, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.
-By the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?
-Resolution
-This question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.
-","Yes, No"
-"Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?","This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.
-The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)
-The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.
-In this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.
-There being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.
-The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.
-",""
-"Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?","Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.
-The highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades.
-Will two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?
-This question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?","If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide.
-Augmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)
-Will VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?
-This question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.
-","Yes, No"
-"If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
-This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.
-Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.
-See also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)
-",""
"To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?","Chemical rockets, while great for many purposes, will never get us far outside of the solar system. With the nearest stars parsecs away, reaching them in a human lifetime requires speeds of at least 10% the speed of light. As can be seen from the [rocket equation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsiolkovsky_rocket_equation), chemical rockets with exhaust speeds of a few km/s would require exponentially large mass to attain relativistic speeds of ~100,000 km/s. It's hopeless.
Unless relativistic exhaust speeds can be obtained (difficult!), leaving the solar system will require external acceleration. A variety of schemes along these lines have been proposed over the years.
For example, the [""starwisp""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starwisp) is a small nanowire mesh ""sail"" driven by the radiation pressure of reflected microwaves; the microwaves would be produced by a phased array of terrestrial or orbital dishes.
@@ -13596,24 +13981,6 @@ In subsequent questions we will look at the probability of developing some of th
By April of 2021, will additional private or governmental sources provide a total commitment of funding to light-beam propulsion at least matching Milner's $100M?
Private funding commitment would come in the form of a publicly-announced commitment like Milner's April 12 commitment; public commitment should come in the form of one or more allocated grants to institutions, or approved budget line-items at NASA or other government agencies.
","Yes, No"
-"How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?","Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.
-This question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?
-The question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.
-",""
-"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on.
-While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.
-Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.
-How much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?
-If available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field ""cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5"" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).
-If GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.
-If GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous.
-A similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.
-Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):
----2016: $890
----2017: $823
----2018: $617
----2019: $592
-",""
"Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?","[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.
This question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?
For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.
@@ -13635,31 +14002,6 @@ Resolution Criteria
Resolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s maximum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.
",""
-"If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?","If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?
-This question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.
-Resolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.
-See also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)
-",""
-"What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing).
-Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.
-As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.
-An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.
-What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?
-This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
-",""
-"PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)"", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.
-According to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world:
-The target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).
-In the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on choosing immortality?
-Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on:
-Immortality would you choose it?
-This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.
-The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
-",""
"When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?","[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.
Alternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=beyond+meat+market+cap&meta=).
When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?
@@ -13703,13 +14045,6 @@ The [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as o
Data
Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.
","Yes, No"
-"Will the next US recession turn into a depression?","As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is ""Will the US Experience a Depression?"" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):
-A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.
-According to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?
-This question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:
----The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively).
----Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less.
-","Yes, No"
"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?","No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).
The past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).
The implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.
@@ -13748,16 +14083,6 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
","Yes, No"
-"Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?","The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?
-The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union.
-Resolution details:
----
-The procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)
-------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union
----
-Positive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession
-------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution
-","Yes, No"
"When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?","The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as ""midnight"" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of ""minutes"" (and [recently ""seconds""](https://twitter.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1220362423007371264)) to midnight.
Its original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight.
This question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?
@@ -13765,34 +14090,9 @@ This resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists a
If resolution has not occurred on 2100-01-01, this resolves to > 2100-01-01.
If either the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists or the Doomsday Clock cease to exist or are otherwise defunct before resolution, this resolves ambiguous.
",""
-"What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).
-The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing).
-[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.
-The ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).
-[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?
-What will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report.
-In case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.
+"How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?","The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.
+How many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?","The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.
-The probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.
-Over the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.
-The probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling ""surface"".
-""I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,"" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.
-""It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!"" she told BBC News.
-Resolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?","The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.
-It hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).
-This question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.
-Resolves:
----positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018
----negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018
----ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points)
----ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more)
-My thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.
-","Yes, No"
"Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?","There are many prediction markets now. Some popular ones are Predictit, FTX, Polymarket, and Augur. The latter three are crypto based; FTX being centralized while the other two are decentralized.
Some crypto projects (unrelated to prediction markets) have been hacked, causing users to lose money. Some other crypto projects have led to exit scams with the same effect.
Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?
@@ -13830,22 +14130,6 @@ The [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/ex
Related Questions
---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/)
",""
-"What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?","An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005),
-One could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.
-Furthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).
-If Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth.
-For example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?
-The relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.
-Real world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.
-ETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.
-",""
-"In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?","The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).
-From its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017.
-This question asks in which month will there first be >=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).
-Should the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.
-If the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.
-If this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as ""> Jan 1, 2035""
-",""
"2˚C global warming by 2100?","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.
Therefore, it is asked:
Will there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in which the average global temperature in each year was at least 2.0 ˚C greater than the average global temperature in 1880.
@@ -13853,87 +14137,6 @@ Will there, by 2100, have been a period of at least 5 consecutive years, in whic
Data for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the critical value to look for with this specific NASA dataset will be 1.8 ˚C. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.
The last possible set of 5 years to satisfy the requirement would be 2095-2099, so the last possible resolution date would be around mid-2100, in order to make sure that there are no uncertainties regarding the 2099 climate data.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?","[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.
-This question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.
-","Yes, No"
-"Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?","In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.
-Carbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.
-The milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.
-The point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called ""[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)"" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.
-Will earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?
-For this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.
-They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.
-This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.
-Stripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.
-[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.
-This question asks:
-On 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?
-This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine.
-If Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.
-If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.
-",""
-"Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?","The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that
-1--is in orbit around the Sun,
-2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and,
-3--has ""cleared the neighborhood"" around its orbit.
-A debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].
-The chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that ""clearing the neighborhood"" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.
-The chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.
-This debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.
-This now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences,
-will the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?
-Resolution details
-IAU's 2006 definition is:
-A “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit.
-We'll refer to this as the ""original definition"". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:
----Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or
----Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or
----Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c).
-If more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively.
-[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)
-[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)
-[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)
-[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)
-*currently characterized by the IAU as ""dwarf planets""
-","Yes, No"
-"How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?","[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.
-With access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.
-By contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.
-As of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.
-In their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:
-[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.
-How many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?
-This question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task.
-If human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.
-Related questions:
----
-[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)
----
-[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)
-",""
-"Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?","China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)
-“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”
-This mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it.
-The NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.
-The International Energy Association (IEA) states that:
-“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”
-China expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%.
-Vehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits.
-As credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).
-Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?
-Resolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).
-","Yes, No"
-"How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?","[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.
-Furthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.
-There are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years.
-Though direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.
-
-How far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?
-
----Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication.
-",""
"When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?","After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc.
When will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?
---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following characteristics:
@@ -13950,20 +14153,6 @@ When will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 mill
---Sales may be computed by adding reports from different manufacturers, or from credible estimates from e.g. analytics firms such as Nielsen SuperData. However, note that any estimate combining multiple headsets must clearly include only qualifying headsets; an estimate of ""VR headsets"" in general may include many non-qualifying headsets. If a single source reports X total sales at the end of 2025 and Y total sales at the end of 2026, Y-X may be taken as the sales numbers for 2026, but this can only be done with two estimates from the same source, not different sources.
---This question retroactively closes as the time when such a report (or the last such report, if multiple are combined) is made available. Therefore, this question could resolve prior to its closing date; for example, if a single company sells 10M headsets in 2029 but does not announce this until its earnings call in March 2030, the question retroactively closes in March 2030 but resolves as December 31, 2029.
",""
-"When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?","The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on ""growing teeth"" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:
-Growing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.
-The following timeline is included in the article:
-2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.
-2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.
-2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less ""native"" teeth.
-2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.
-2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants
-2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.
-Similarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on ""tooth regeneration"" as of 2020-01-18 states:
-Tooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.
-There has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as ""Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth"" and ""Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals"".
-The question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?
-",""
"Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?","In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.
A senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose.
These senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.
@@ -13993,25 +14182,6 @@ Resolution Criteria
The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to provide a report of Cycle 26’s minimum and its date (month) of occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.
",""
-"How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?","The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.
-[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.
-How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?
-Resolution
-This question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.
-",""
-"Will the ""silver"" Turing Test be passed by 2026?","The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A ""chatterbot"" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)
-The format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.
-A bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The ""silver"" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.
-A ""gold"" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.
-This question pertains to whether or not the ""silver"" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.
-","Yes, No"
-"What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?","The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019.
-Singapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies.
-Singapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/)
-This question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?
-This question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.
-If no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.
-",""
"Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?","The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.
Franchises that already are at the number 2: ""Half Life 2"", ""Portal 2"", ""Left 4 Dead 2"", ""Team Fortress 2"" and ""Dota 2"".
This question resolves positive if Valve releases before 2030-01-01 a game made by Valve that has ""3"" (or anything else that means 3) in its title. It resolves negative otherwise, including if Valve ceases operating.
@@ -14023,63 +14193,12 @@ This question asks: Will a legacy automaker go bankrupt before 2030?
If one of the top 10 current automakers (by vehicle sales), including Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler/Mercedes, Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Honda, SAIC, BMW, and Nissan, declares bankruptcy, the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
If the automaker declares bankruptcy the question will resolve positively even if they are bought out by another company or given a loan by the government
","Yes, No"
-"How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
-[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online.
-Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).
-AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).
-How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
-This question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's ""original submission date"".
-Details of the search query
-For the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in ""all fields"" (i.e. the abstract and title):
-""ai safety"", ""ai alignment"", ""aligned ai"", ""value alignment problem"", ""reward hacking"", ""reward tampering"", ""tampering problem"", ""safe exploration"", ""robust to distributional shift"", ""scalable oversight"", ""explainable AI"", ""interpretable AI"", ""explainable model"", ""verification for machine learning"", ""verifiable machine learning"", ""interpretable model"", ""interpretable machine learning"", ""cooperative inverse reinforcement learning"", ""value learning"", ""iterated amplification"", ""preference learning"", ""AI safety via debate"", ""reward modeling"", ""logical induction""
-The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).
-Running this query for previous years gives:
----80 for the calendar year 2017
----127 for the calendar year 2018
----275 for the calendar year 2019
-",""
-"Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)","After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [""Vulcan"" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:
-Maybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.
-This taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.
-We'll play along, and ask:
-By Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that ""Vulcan"" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security?
-For positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and ""National Security"" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.
-In case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will space mining be profitable?","There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.
-This being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.
-When will a space mining company report a profit?
----Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel).
----The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies.
----If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify.
----In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous.
-",""
"Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?","The European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement is a free trade agreement on which the EU and Mercosur (which consists of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached agreement in principle [in 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-trade-mercosur/eu-mercosur-strike-trade-pact-defying-protectionist-wave-idUSKCN1TT2KD). The deal was announced on 28 June at the 2019 G20 Osaka summit after twenty years of negotiations. Although there is agreement in principle, the final texts have not been finalised, signed or ratified and therefore have not entered into force. If ratified, it would represent the largest trade deal struck by both the EU and Mercosur in terms of citizens involved.The trade deal is part of a wider Association Agreement between the two blocs.
Once the texts are final and legally revised they will need to be translated in all EU and Mercosur official languages.The texts will then be presented by the European Commission to the Council of Ministers of the European Union for approval. In the Council unanimity is required. If approved the Council will sign the agreement and send it over to the Mercosur countries and to the European Parliament. An EU association agreement must also be approved by the national parliaments of all EU member states. Ratification of the agreement by the national parliaments of the Mercosur countries is also required.
The deal has been denounced by European beef [farmers](https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/macron-defends-eu-mercosur-trade-deal-as-farmers-protest/), [environmental](https://www.politico.eu/article/eus-green-trade-promises-face-reality-check-in-the-rainforest/) activists, [animal welfare](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/why-eu-mercosur-agreement-bad-news-european-animals) advocates, and indigenous rights campaigners. Protests against the deal have taken place. Governments and parliaments of the EU member states have also [criticised](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/opposition-eu-mercosur-deal-growing) the agreement. In October 2020 both the [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0252_EN.html) and the European Commissioner for Trade [Valdis Dombrovskis](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/files/commissionners/valdis-dombrovskis/en-dombrovskis-verbatim-report.pdf) have stated that the EU-Mercosur agreement ""cannot be approved as it stands.
Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?
Resolves positive if by the end of 31 December 2021, European Parliament or representatives of any relevant government agency involved in negotiations on behalf of an EU participating country (any one of 27 countries) makes an announcement that the European Union–Mercosur ratification has been rejected, without a contradicting claim by a representative in the following 24 hours.
","Yes, No"
-"How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?","For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.
-Question: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?
-Resolution details:
----Only humans in the observable universe count.
----""Humans"" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them.
-",""
-"Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?","For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science.
-In the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.
-The anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the ""low fat is healthy"" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).
-Nearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).
-To that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.
-In the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: ""From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.""
-In Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.
-And in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details:
-Berkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline.
-And then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):
-Almost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found
-Whether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.
-But will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?
-","Yes, No"
"By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?","Arguably the most important single difference between humans and all other life is the degree to which human intelligence allows for radically more complex forms of socialization, cooperation, activity and achievement. No other species in the universe (to our knowledge) has created the kind of complex civilization that humans have created, or anything close to it, and this is due to the large advantage that humans have acquired in intelligence.
The most widely-accepted tool for measuring human intelligence is the IQ test. The population average is fixed arbitrarily at 100, and the results of a population fit a Gaussian probability distribution, also known as a bell curve. Approximately two-thirds of the population score between one standard deviation below the mean and one standard deviation above the mean. About 2.5% of the population scores at or above two standard deviations above the mean, and 2.5% scores at or below two standard deviations below the mean. The difference in ability this represents is large. A person with an IQ two standard deviations below the mean is considered to have less than a 50% chance of graduating from high school, whereas a person with an IQ two standard deviations above the mean has a slightly higher IQ than the average holder of a Juris Doctor degree (an IQ of 126).
Psychometricians generally regard IQ tests as having high statistical reliability and predictive validity.
@@ -14099,43 +14218,6 @@ This resolves positively if by 1 January 2050,
---
200 healthy adult humans under the age of 65 have their IQ scores increased by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days, relative to their previous mean score generated from 1 separate test.
","Yes, No"
-"Will Catalonia become an independent state?","The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.
-[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.
-With talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.
-This question asks:
-Will Catalonia will be an independent state within 5 years of this vote?
-Question resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.
-Resolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?","According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:
-1--Emma
-2--Olivia
-3--Ava
-4--Isabella
-5--Sophia
-6--Amelia
-7--Mia
-8--Charlotte
-9--Harper
-10-Mila
-The most popular baby names for boys are:
-1--Liam
-2--Noah
-3--Logan
-4--Oliver
-5--Mason
-6--Lucas
-7--Ethan
-8--Elijah
-9--Aiden
-10-James
-If history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now.
-Will any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?
-For the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.
-","Yes, No"
-"How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?","The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.
-How many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.
-",""
"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.
What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
@@ -14152,12 +14234,6 @@ Will this bold prediction come to pass?
Result is positive if independent astronomical observations confirm that KIC 9832227 has undergone an ""red nova"" or similar explosive event, giving it a visual magnitude of 6 or less, before January 1, 2024 (giving an extra year or so to the Molner's stated prediction)
(Edited 3/5/18) to clarify resolution criteria and nature of event.
","Yes, No"
-"When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?","Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.
-In the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?
-When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?
-The question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.
-An [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.
-",""
"What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?","Impossible Foods Inc. is a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat and dairy products. As of September 21st, 2019, at least one supermarket [has announced](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores) its plans to stock its shelves with the Impossible Burger.
[According to Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores), a 12-ounce (0.34 kg) package of Impossible Burger will cost $8.99 at Gelson’s Markets, which is limiting each customer purchase to 10 packages per visit. This translates into a price of $26.43 per kilo.
What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?
@@ -14169,6 +14245,39 @@ PBB is taken to refer to plant-based product that aim to be direct replacements
A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the Impossible Foods product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
The question resolves ambiguous if Impossible Foods ceases to exist, as judged by an admin. Impossible Foods changing its name does not terminate the existence of Impossible Foods.
",""
+"Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?","China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.
+From the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.
+China has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).
+Will China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?
+This question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).
+For the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).
+Previously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:
+This question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?","Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.
+In the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?
+When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?
+The question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.
+An [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.
+",""
+"Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?","According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.
+From [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),
+There is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should ""choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
+Some, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a ""healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president."" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline.
+At one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), ""I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.""
+This question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?
+Resolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.
+","Yes, No"
+"One Million Martian Residents by 2075?","In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.
+Like most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?
+Some specifics:
+---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model).
+---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total.
+---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date.
+---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars.
+---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier).
+---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date.
+","Yes, No"
"What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.
The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable.
@@ -14180,20 +14289,36 @@ This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any languag
Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question.
",""
+"Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?","The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:
+Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of ""British"" and ""exit"") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4]
+However, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in ""a decade's time""](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?
+---
+Resolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.
+---
+If the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively
+---
+If the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively
+","Yes, No"
+"Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?","WeWork (officially ""The We Company"") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401)
+[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)
+The company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)
+This question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?
+Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.
+","Yes, No"
+"When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?","Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.
+It is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).
+The global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].
+As of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.
+When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.
+Reports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.
+",""
"When will the next interstellar object be discovered?","The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.
Although only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.
When will the next interstellar object be discovered?
This question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [""I"" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available ""[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)"" data, this question resolves when the formal ""interstellar"" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as "">12/31/30.""
",""
-"Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?","China is today one of the major economies in the world. It ranks second in terms of gross domestic product and it contributes about 36 percent to world growth. Due to the size of its economy, Chinese business cycle fluctuations potentially affect economies worldwide. The Chinese economy further has substantial effects on global poverty, global trade, climate change, and much else.
-From the late 1970s, China saw an annual average growth rate of 9.9 per cent for more than three decades. This followed the introduction of reform and opening-up policies in 1978. In recent years, however, growth has slowed, to only 6.9 per cent in 2015. In Angus Maddison's book, [The Outlook for China and the World Economy](http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Maddison07.pdf), he forecasts that China's GDP will surpass that of the United States in the first half of this century, and likely as soon as 2030.
-China has seen an average of 9.8% GDP growth since the 1970s, far higher than the 2.8% average observed in the United States in the same period. Despite the recent slowdown in Chinese growth, its rates of Total Factor Productivity has been growing on average at twice the average rate in the United States ([around 3% in China](http://www.urbanlab.org/articles/China/reform%20era/Brandt%20Rawski%20eds%202008%20-%20China's%20great%20economic%20transformation.pdf#page=853) vs [around 1.5% in the United States](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/indicators-data/total-factor-productivity-tfp/)). Similarly, [Chinese capital formation rates](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html) have tended to be almost twice [capital formation rates in the United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gross-fixed-capital-formation-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html).
-Will China's GDP exceed United States GDP in at least 1 year by 2040?
-This question resolves positive if China's nominal GDP for a given year exceeds US nominal GDP (for that year) before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china).
-For the purpose of this question, nominal GDP will be compared after converting China's nominal GDP to USD (using exchanges rates that are commonly used by the World Bank for this purpose).
-Previously, the resolution criteria was confusing, so this has been changed. It is reproduced here for reference:
-This question resolves positive if China's GDP exceeds that of the United States in any 1 year before (and including) 2040. For the purpose of this question, we refer to data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/country/china) that are adjusted for historical domestic prices.
-","Yes, No"
"Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?","Frédérique Martel's [new book](https://www.amazon.com/Closet-Vatican-Power-Homosexuality-Hypocrisy/dp/1472966147/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Fr%C3%A9d%C3%A9ric+Martel&qid=1550223728&s=gateway&sr=8-1) is the latest affirmation that homosexuality is very common in the ranks of the catholic church.
Question: By 2050, will a reigning Pope announce that they are gay, bisexual, or transgender?
Resolves positively retroactively one day before a reigning Pope has officially stated that they are gay (including lesbian in case of a female pope), bisexual, or transgender. Resolves negatively on 2050-01-01 if this has not yet happened, including if there are no longer Popes in the current sense of the term.
@@ -14210,6 +14335,18 @@ Resolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang poli
The author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define ""formal support"" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.
As a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count.
",""
+"Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?","A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining)
+There are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft.
+Some identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion.
+Some nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States ""SPACE Act of 2015,"" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.
+On 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids.
+According to the article § 51303 of the law: ""A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.""
+In February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to ""jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space"" by, among other things, creating a ""legal framework"" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would ""invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg."" In 2017, it became the ""first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space"", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.
+[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)
+This question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?
+Resolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred.
+Resources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?","Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later.
To find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200?
For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.
@@ -14223,19 +14360,48 @@ The United States will certainly experience a recession in the next six years. A
Will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent??
If Robert D Atkinson is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Jason W Galbraith is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
+"Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?","Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.
+This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.
+","Yes, No"
"How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?","The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).
The number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.
How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2028-2030 period?
This question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2028, 2029, and 2030 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.
",""
-"Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?","Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government.
-This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.
-","Yes, No"
+"If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?","Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]
+WBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]
+An approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.
+In his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.
+If Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?
+Resolution:
+This question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation).
+For the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):
+Success criterion: ""The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.""
+Correct properties: ""Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)""
+Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.
+This question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.
+",""
"Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?","[Tom Brady](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Brady) is 42 years old and is about to start yet another season as the quarterback for the NFL's New England Patriots. Brady already holds the NFL records for being the oldest QB to lead the league in passing, the oldest player to be named MVP of the Super Bowl, and the oldest quarterback to start in—not to mention win—the Super Bowl (which he did earlier this year, at age 41). He is also the [tenth-oldest quarterback](http://www.oldest.org/sports/nfl-quarterbacks/) ever to play in the league.
The Patriots have recently [extended](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27321411/source-pats-extend-brady-qb-gets-23m-19) Brady's contract through the end of the 2021–2022 season, at which time he would be 44 years old. He has long talked about wanting to play into his mid-40s, and [some](https://nesn.com/2019/08/why-former-nfl-qb-can-see-tom-brady-playing-until-hes-50-years-old/) have suggested that he could play until he is 50 years old. More analysis is [here](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tom-brady-and-drew-brees-have-blown-up-the-qb-aging-curve-what-comes-next/).
Therefore it is asked, will Tom Brady retire on or before the expiration of his current contract?
This question will resolve positively if Tom Brady does not play in a single regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season, for any reason. It will resolve negatively if he does play in at least one regular-season game in the 2022–2023 NFL season. The question will resolve ambiguously if there is no 2022–2023 NFL season.
","Yes, No"
+"What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?","Context
+-------
+
+The 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids.
+A key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots.
+In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated.
+Accurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).
+At present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:
+What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?
+For context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).
+
+Resolution Criteria
+-------------------
+
+Resolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.
+",""
"When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?","As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:
---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html))
---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/))
@@ -14256,6 +14422,46 @@ If any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics
",""
"What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?","The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.
",""
+"When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?","United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.
+The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.
+[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).
+When will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?
+This question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.
+See also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)
+",""
+"Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?","Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.
+[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):
+According to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.
+The question is: can we do this?
+Kurzgesagt (a.k.a. ""in a nutshell"") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)
+Here are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:
+---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator.
+---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build.
+---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down.
+---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process.
+---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator.
+What do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?
+Question resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.
+","Yes, No"
+"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
+Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
+Index
+The index is constructed as follows:
+---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index
+---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100
+The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:
+Image classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)
+Historical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.
+What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?
+This question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.
+Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
+A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
+---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months
+---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10
+If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
+Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
+In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100.
+",""
"If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?","One of Joe Biden's campaign promises is his Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. According to [his campaign website](https://joebiden.com/climate/), this will entail:
---
Ensure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.
@@ -14273,14 +14479,25 @@ This question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cance
Resolution will be by the [Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en), or a similar reliable source.
This question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).
",""
-"Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?","According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.
-From [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),
-There is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should ""choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.
-Some, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a ""healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president."" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline.
-At one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), ""I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.""
-This question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?
-Resolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.
-","Yes, No"
+"What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?","The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.
+One goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).
+Data sources and more information:
+---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/)
+---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website
+---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html)
+---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html)
+---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html)
+---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm)
+---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36)
+---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/)
+---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data)
+---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/)
+---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/)
+What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?
+The percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.
+To resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.
+9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.
+",""
"Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?","Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.
Since then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.
This question resolves positive if no nuclear weapon is detonated before Jan 1, 2035, outside of controlled tests. Negative resolution could be triggered by:
@@ -14302,6 +14519,21 @@ It is asked:
Will we create an isotope of an element that has more than 110 protons, that has a half-life of at least one day (86,400 seconds) prior to 2050?
In order for the question to resolve positive the half-life of the isotope must be verified by an independent scientific team to be greater than one day prior to 2050.
","Yes, No"
+"What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?","The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)
+In any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)
+An estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.
+Per a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:
+Percent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)
+What will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?
+",""
+"When will we have micropayments?","One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking
+Where are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?
+and lamenting:
+Of course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.
+I've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just ""micropayments fail over and over."" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:
+When will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?
+The question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a ""wallet"" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.
+",""
"When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?","California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations.
These stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits.
There are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.
@@ -14311,6 +14543,64 @@ When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets ava
Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.
If these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.
",""
+"When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?","[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.
+At the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).
+When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?
+In order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:
+---There must be a ""coverage area"" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement.
+---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band.
+---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system.
+---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously.
+---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers.
+",""
+"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?","The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.
+The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at ""somewhere between one out of three and even"".
+Twenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea.
+Currently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.
+Although tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.
+Although initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages
+[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.
+The fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is.
+In the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.
+If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?
+The question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens.
+This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
+1--
+[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+2--
+[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+3--
+[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+4--
+[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
+Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
+5--
+[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
+6--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
+7--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
+8--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
+9--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
+10-
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
+All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
+","Yes, No"
+"Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?","During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.
+From then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition.
+The first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.
+Calvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.
+Only when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.
+Truman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.
+Only Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.
+
+Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?
+
+Resolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.
+Resolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).
+","Yes, No"
"Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved in the next decade?","The [Millennium Prize Problems](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/millennium-prize-problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The problems are:
---
[Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture)
@@ -14340,15 +14630,17 @@ This resolves positively when it is credibly reported that 100 gigagrams, i.e. g
For the purpose of this question, sulfur emissions are specified according to the equivalent weight of sulphur. For the purpose of this question we'll use the conversion of sulfur emissions and burdens found in [(Rasch et al., 2008)](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2008.0131): 100 Gg S = 300 Gg of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) = 300 Gg of Sulfate (SO₄2) = 400 Gg aerosol particles (Gg = gigagram).
Moreover, a single geoengineering effort is defined as a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.
","Yes, No"
-"One Million Martian Residents by 2075?","In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.
-Like most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?
-Some specifics:
----Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model).
----Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total.
----Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date.
----This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars.
----Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier).
----Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date.
+"Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?","The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.
+---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away.
+---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos.
+---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars).
+---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works).
+However, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa!
+We need backup, apparently!
+Well, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) ""is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network."" Possible benefits include:
+Adding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.
+LIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)
+Can the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?
","Yes, No"
"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).
@@ -14357,6 +14649,19 @@ What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best availab
This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on June 14, 2021, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).
The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially.
",""
+"Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?","P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.
+A good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video ""P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo"" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)
+The question asks:
+IF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP?
+If no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)
+As some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:
+1--61 thought P≠NP.
+2--9 thought P=NP.
+3--4 thought that it is independent.
+4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic.
+5--1 said it would depend on the model.
+6--22 offered no opinion.
+","Yes, No"
"Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?","AES-256 is a widely-implemented specification for a symmetric block cipher algorithm for encrypting digital data. It is the strongest version of the Rijndael algorithm underlying the AES specification with 14 rounds of transformation and a 256 bit key size. The key size of 256 bits appears to render a brute-force search of the keyspace infeasible on foreseeable classical and quantum computers--the latter still must search an effective keyspace of 128 bits (see Grover's algorithm). The best publicly known attack on AES-256 requires the search of a keyspace slightly greater than 254 bits, which is infeasible. This keyspace is so large that a brute force search would be energy-constrained on a solar-system scale even with unlimited computing power at the physical limits of efficiency.
There is some consideration that mathematical and / or cryptoanalytic advances may enable new attacks on AES-256 that could make key recovery computationally feasible. Public, and presumably private, cryptanalysis of AES-256 is ongoing so it is plausible that by some means a practical break could become public knowledge by 2040. Advances in AI before the resolution date may plausibly speed up the rate of relevant mathematical and crytoanalytic discoveries.
Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?
@@ -14395,26 +14700,24 @@ The question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050?
For the purposes of this question, ""communist state"" will be defined as a United Nations member state (1) which includes explicit references to communism or socialism in its constitution (2), and is administered and governed by a single party describing its ideology as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Marxist-Leninist-Maoist, or a variant thereof tracing its ideological lineage to Marxism (3). Presently, only five countries match these three conditions.
This question will resolve as the number of countries matching these conditions on 2050-01-01.
",""
-"Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?","The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:
-Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of ""British"" and ""exit"") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4]
-However, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in ""a decade's time""](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?
----
-Resolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.
----
-If the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively
----
-If the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively
-","Yes, No"
"If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?","The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.
Given that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?
Resolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.
",""
-"Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?","WeWork (officially ""The We Company"") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401)
-[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)
-The company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)
-This question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?
-Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.
-","Yes, No"
+"When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?","The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.
+All told, the set includes:
+---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap
+---Riemann Hypothesis
+---P vs NP Problem
+---Navier–Stokes Equation
+---Hodge Conjecture
+---Poincaré Conjecture
+---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture
+Of these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:
+[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: ""I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.""
+At some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.)
+But when?
+",""
"Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?","Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a ""phantom genre.""
The Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying.
Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre?
@@ -14427,22 +14730,114 @@ El público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el r
La respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030.
(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español).
","Yes, No"
+"Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?","A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.
+The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies.
+Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).
+Over the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).
+Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?
+Resolution
+This question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).
+Data
+---
+[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing).
+---
+[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).
+","Yes, No"
"Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?","Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?
If there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?","Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.
-It is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).
-The global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].
-As of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.
-When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?
+"What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?","Context
+=======
+
+Private equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.
+As with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.
+Total annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:
+---2008: $312
+---2009: $138
+---2010: $284
+---2011: $336
+---2012: $375
+---2013: $434
+---2014 $544
+---2015 $512
+---2016 $610
+---2017 $629
+---2018 $730
+---2019 $678
+All in billions of 2019 US$.
+
+Question
+========
+
+What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2020?
+
Resolution
-This question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.
-Reports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.
+==========
+
+This question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2020 US$.
",""
+"When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?","Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.
+There are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?
+This question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.
+The landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.
+Resolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.
+",""
+"PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)"", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.
+Mind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind.
+According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):
+A considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their ""biological shell"".
+However, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, ""uploading"" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.
+In the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the ""death"" of the person being uploaded?
+Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
+Resolution
+This question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the ""death"" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.
+The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
+",""
+"Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).
+[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.
+Moreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:
+Past studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).
+In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,
+Given that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?
+The question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.
+A biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.
+This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
+1--
+[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+2--
+[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+3--
+[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+4--
+[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
+Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
+5--
+[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
+6--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
+7--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
+8--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
+9--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
+10-
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
+All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
+","Yes, No"
"What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?","The number π is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction.
In March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80).
What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?
",""
+"Will the Universe end?","Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.
+The question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether ""The Universe"" will end.
+Even posing this question is not very straightforward, as ""The Universe"" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.
+When we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the ""sky"" at some ""distance."" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [""observiball""](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [""lightcone,""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.
+Turning this around to look into the future, we can consider the ""Affectiball,"" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.
+We can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [""heat death""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that ""interesting things"" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:
+Is the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?
+If so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)
+","Yes, No"
"What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?","On October 8, 2018 the Chandra X-Ray Observatory went into safe mode, a few days after the [Hubble Telescope entered safe mode](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1518/will-the-hubble-telescope-resume-operations-in-its-three-gyro-configuration-before-the-end-of-2018/). Since then NASA has diagnosed what caused Chandra’s error and have resumed normal operations.
From [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/chandra-operations-resume-after-cause-of-safe-mode-identified):
Chandra is 19 years old, which is well beyond the original design lifetime of 5 years. In 2001, NASA extended its lifetime to 10 years. It is now well into its extended mission and is expected to continue carrying out forefront science for many years to come.
@@ -14466,18 +14861,6 @@ The question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted
This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:
[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027/)
",""
-"Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?","A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining)
-There are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft.
-Some identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion.
-Some nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States ""SPACE Act of 2015,"" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.
-On 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids.
-According to the article § 51303 of the law: ""A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.""
-In February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to ""jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space"" by, among other things, creating a ""legal framework"" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would ""invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg."" In 2017, it became the ""first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space"", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.
-[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)
-This question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?
-Resolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred.
-Resources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.
-","Yes, No"
"If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5126)
On January 1 2019, there were [13.6 million lawful permanent residents in the United States](https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/lpr_population_estimates_january_2015_-_2019.pdf). Lawful permanent residents, also known as green card holders, are immigrants who have been granted authorization to live and work in the United States, but who have not yet become U.S. citizens.
If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will be estimated to reside in the US on January 1, 2022 by the Office of Immigration Statistics?
@@ -14547,23 +14930,6 @@ Resolution
This question will resolve positively if a credible company, customer, or media report establishes the sale of an Airborne Wind System that has a maximum rated power output of at least 100 kW. The system does not need to have been constructed yet.
","Yes, No"
-"If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?","Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]
-WBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]
-An approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.
-In his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.
-If Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?
-Resolution:
-This question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation).
-For the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):
-Success criterion: ""The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.""
-Correct properties: ""Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)""
-Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.
-This question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.
-",""
-"When will the US-Canada border reopen?","The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.
-When will the US-Canada border reopen?
-This question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.
-",""
"How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?","A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&ref=headline&nl_art=7&te=1&nl=upshot&emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability.
This could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks:
What will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM?
@@ -14648,6 +15014,12 @@ Related questions
---[Second US civil war before 2031?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/)
If positive resolution is triggered, and it is later determined by a court or judge that the invocation was invalid or illegal, that will have no bearing on the resolution of this question.
","Yes, No"
+"Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?","In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.
+Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.
+A [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.
+Will we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?
+This question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).
+","Yes, No"
"Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?","This star (aka ""Tabby's Star) has been puzzling us for a few years now. Its highly variable apparent magnitude doesn't fit the pattern for other variable stars or stars with eclipsing companions or transiting exoplanets. To date, the dips in brightness do not exhibit any periodicity at all. Even worse, the dips in the luminosity graphs are asymmetrical (gradual onset, sudden reset). For lots of background and prior Metaculus discussion, see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/467/) and [this one.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/110/).
Most attention has been aimed at eclipsing objects orbiting the star itself, and our prior questions had rather short time horizons.
Now I put forward my own pet theory as a binary question with open-ended close: Until such time as the scientific community does a face-palm and says ""yeah, of course that's what it was!"", is the explanation some passing interstellar gas and/or dust?
@@ -14678,22 +15050,6 @@ When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?
This question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside).
This will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.
",""
-"What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?","Context
--------
-
-The 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids.
-A key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots.
-In addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated.
-Accurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).
-At present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:
-What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?
-For context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).
-
-Resolution Criteria
--------------------
-
-Resolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.
-",""
"50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?","At the recent North American Leaders' Summit in Canada, the leaders of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico announced a goal -- [a ""deliverable""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/29/fact-sheet-united-states-key-deliverables-2016-north-american-leaders) in the official parlance -- of having 50% of North American electricity generation come from zero-carbon sources by 2025. Such an energy mix would bring North America more into line with Europe. [Recent statistics](http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Net_electricity_generation,_EU-28,_2013_(1)_(%25_of_total,_based_on_GWh)_YB15.png) show that just under 50% of European electricity generation comes from combustible fuels.
The Leaders' Summit goal would represent a material step in the direction of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, but it may be difficult to achieve in practice. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, [current electricity generation capacity](http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3) for the United States from zero-carbon sources is 33% (20% nuclear, 6% hydro-power, and 7% other sources such as wind, geothermal and solar). The corresponding figure when Canada and Mexico are added in is 37%. Raising the fraction significantly will require both substantial investments in infrastructure and disciplined political support.
Admittedly, resolution dates lying a decade in the future are not for the impatient (and they telegraph smug confidence in Metaculus' long-term success). Nonetheless, a question such as this, which gauges a near-term consensus on prospects, can give clarity on whether a long-term goal can be feasibly reached.
@@ -14765,13 +15121,25 @@ Will the first publicly traded company to have a $4 trillion market cap be worth
This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $4 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $2 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to Yahoo Finance's data, or any other reputable financial data service. Qualifying companies are restricted to companies that were publicly traded over the whole year when their valuation doubled.
Current quarter's prices are to be adjusted to mean 2018 prices using FRED's [GDP implicit price deflator](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USAGDPDEFQISMEI). If the company is not traded in the US, prices given in the currency in which the stocks are traded are to be converted using the arithmetic mean of FRED's [real broad effective exchange rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/tags/series?t=currency%3Bexchange%20rate%3Breal&ob=pv&od=desc) of the current quarter.
","Yes, No"
-"When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?","United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.
-The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.
-[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).
-When will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?
-This question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.
-See also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)
+"When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?","[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.
+Under Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.
+Russia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.
+In June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)
+This question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
+This question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup.
+In the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.
",""
+"Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?","In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).
+The satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.
+It is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission.
+The official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch.
+Many people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.
+More information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite))
+Was Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there?
+This question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.
+The question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.
+The question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.
+","Yes, No"
"Will Moore's Law end by 2025?","According to [Moore's law]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer ), the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet.
Due to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely.
We shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started.
@@ -14780,6 +15148,45 @@ We shall define two transistors as same generation if they have a half-pitch wit
The question shall also resolve positive if Apple has moved on from using transistors to something completely different by 2030, as we are focusing on the 50-year Moore's law, not Ray Kurzweil's 120-year multi-paradigm Moore's law.
Resolution shall be by credible media report.
","Yes, No"
+"When will a technology replace screens?","In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).
+What do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house.
+Screens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television).
+But nothing lasts forever.
+This question asks,
+""When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?""
+For the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as ""a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface"".
+If a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale.
+For example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.
+If a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.
+The question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for ""non-screen"" displays is greater than the sales for ""screen"" technology.
+The question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.
+Because the word ""screen"" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.
+If at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.
+Current examples of ""screens"":
+1--Phones
+2--Televisions
+3--Laptops/Tablets
+4--PC Monitors
+5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image.
+Examples of technologies that could be described to ""primarily convey visual information"":
+---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen
+---AR ""smart"" glasses
+---Smart contact lenses
+---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain.
+---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) )
+---3d holographic displays
+---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm)
+Non-examples (improved screen):
+---Curved TVs
+---Folding Phones
+---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular)
+---[""Roll-up"" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/)
+---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone)
+Non-examples (not a visual display technology):
+---Wireless earbuds
+---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver
+---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas
+",""
"When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?","The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency.
A promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.)
There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts.
@@ -14791,6 +15198,13 @@ The organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. We'll define ""su
When will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?
This question resolves when the letters in question are made public.
",""
+"Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?","Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.
+According to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.
+More recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions ""as well as the average 11th-grade American student."" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS ""uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015."" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.
+This is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:
+By end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015?
+Resolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.
+","Yes, No"
"A decrease in US meat production by 2025?","Humans are biologically omnivorous, and with relatively few exceptions human societies have included meat a central (and often desirable) food source. The steady growth of per-capita wealth and population has thus lead to a steady growth in the number of animals killed each year worldwide.
There are, however, some significant countervailing trends. Arguments based on health, animal welfare, resource usage, and environmental impact have led to the steady growth of vegetarian and meat-reduced diets. Hand-in-hand, the food industry has developed a number of meat alternatives and vegetarian-friendly products, with more advanced products as well as more radical possibilities (such as cultured meat) in development. How important will these trends be?
The [National Agriculture Statistics Service](https://www.nass.usda.gov) carefully tracks meat production in terms of pounds produced, value produced, animals slaughtered, and per-capita production. Here we focus on the total weight of meat produced, compiled in [this table](https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/results/62C3939E-6363-33A8-8B06-4FD1D60781D1?pivot=short_desc). The table shows that meat production has steadily (but not quite monotonically) increased since 1988 from 62 billion to 76 billion pounds. We ask:
@@ -14894,39 +15308,22 @@ The claim in the article is that the satellite will be eight times as luminous a
Let's relax both the date and the luminosity requirements. This question will resolve positively if by the year 2025 China has launched a reflecting satellite that is both more than twice as luminous as the full Moon when seen from a major Chinese city and provides more than 10% of the illuminating power that is seen from streetlights on a street in that same city. The luminosity requirements can be met by aggregate contribution of multiple satellites, if they are all launched by China.
Resolution will be by credible media report in a media outlet outside of China. ""Major Chinese city"" will be taken to mean one of the top 20 cities in China by population (which list currently includes Chengdu, listed as the target city by the article linked above).
","Yes, No"
-"Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?","Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.
-[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):
-According to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.
-The question is: can we do this?
-Kurzgesagt (a.k.a. ""in a nutshell"") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)
-Here are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:
----Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator.
----Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build.
----Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down.
----Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process.
----Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator.
-What do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?
-Question resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.
+"Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?","Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (""Lock him up!""), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.
+Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.
+For him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.
+1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).
+2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either
+a) he is no longer President, or
+b) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)
+3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.
+4) He would have to be found guilty.
+5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.
+6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.
+Number 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).
+We will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?
+This question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated
+Note that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.
","Yes, No"
-"What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round).
-Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.
-Index
-The index is constructed as follows:
----We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index
----The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100
-The following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:
-Image classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)
-Historical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.
-What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?
-This question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.
-Models that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.
-A benchmark will be removed from the index if:
----At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months
----The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10
-If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.
-Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.
-In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100.
-",""
"What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?","In the U.S., 2020 Q2 saw vastly expanded unemployment insurance transfers ([FRED source](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W825RC1)), up to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2020 Q2 from a baseline of $27.7 billion in 2019 (figures seasonally adjusted and annualized).
A [large fraction](https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-07/effects-of-selected-federal-pandemic-response-programs-on-personal-income-2020q2-advance.pdf) of this increase was due to the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program, which provided an additional $600/week unemployment payment until it expired on July 31st, 2020. As the pandemic drags on, Congress must decide to what extent it will continue these payments.
In its [Personal Income and Outlays](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) reports, the BEA provides monthly, quarterly, and annual figures including total unemployment insurance transfers.
@@ -14955,25 +15352,6 @@ The question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where
If the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.
The question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution).
",""
-"What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?","The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.
-One goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).
-Data sources and more information:
----[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/)
----The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website
----[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html)
----[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html)
----[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html)
----[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm)
----[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36)
----[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/)
----[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data)
----[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/)
----[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/)
-What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?
-The percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.
-To resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.
-9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.
-",""
"What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?","In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/). IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States.
This question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?
Question resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the year 2029 and provide IVF birth counts. The number of total babies born in 2029 will be determined by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm), or if this institute no longer exists, by whichever government entity replaces it.
@@ -15004,26 +15382,11 @@ Resolution Criteria
The resolution criteria will be drawn from the [Planetary K Index data](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index) recorded through the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The mean will be measured in Kp units. If there is not sufficient data or the data does not become available from this site or any other reputable site, the question will resolve ambiguously.
",""
-"What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?","The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)
-In any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)
-An estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.
-Per a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:
-Percent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)
-What will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?
-",""
"Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?","According to the United Nations Development Program's [2019 Human Development Index](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/2019-human-development-index-ranking), the average life expectancy at birth in the US (both sexes, average) is 78.9 years.
[Life expectancy in the US has increased by just under a decade since 1950, when it was 68.14 years.](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy) However, in the last few years, [life expectancy has actually declined slightly in the US.](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2018/11/us-life-expectancy-keeps-falling/576664/) Contributing factors include obesity and related diseases, opioid abuse, and suicides.
This question asks: Before January 1 2040, will US life expectancy at birth (average for both sexes) fall below 75 years, according to the CDC, World Health Organization, or the United Nations?
Only one of these organizations need credibly report that the US life expectancy has fallen below 75 for a positive resolution.
","Yes, No"
-"When will we have micropayments?","One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking
-Where are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?
-and lamenting:
-Of course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.
-I've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just ""micropayments fail over and over."" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:
-When will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?
-The question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a ""wallet"" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.
-",""
"What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?","[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.
SpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).
As of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.
@@ -15044,64 +15407,6 @@ The question resolves ambiguously if no new fundamental particle is discovered b
What will be the net acceptability of buying and wearing fur by 2030?
This question resolves as the percentage of survey participants who responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur minus the percentage who responded that it is morally wrong, as of the most recent survey completed by Gallup by the end of 2030. In case the most recent survey is one that is more than 3 years old at the end of 2030, then this question resolves ambiguously.
",""
-"When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?","[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.
-At the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).
-When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?
-In order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:
----There must be a ""coverage area"" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement.
----Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band.
----Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system.
----It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously.
----Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers.
-",""
-"Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?","The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.
-The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at ""somewhere between one out of three and even"".
-Twenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea.
-Currently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.
-Although tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.
-Although initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages
-[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.
-The fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is.
-In the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.
-If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?
-The question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens.
-This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
-1--
-[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-2--
-[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-3--
-[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-4--
-[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
-Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
-5--
-[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
-6--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
-7--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
-8--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
-9--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
-10-
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
-All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?","During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.
-From then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition.
-The first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.
-Calvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.
-Only when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.
-Truman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.
-Only Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.
-
-Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?
-
-Resolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.
-Resolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).
-","Yes, No"
"Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?","The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 500'000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is ""to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI."" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the ""Human World Knowledge,"" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik9 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 1GB extract from Wikipedia.
Since 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more ""understanding"" and intelligence in general.
The [Algorithmic Information Theoretic](http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Algorithmic_information_theory) (AIT) philosophy of this contest is that compression is induction (aka [comprehension](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10258)) and decompression is inference (aka prediction). According to AIT, lossless compression is adequate to avoid both [confirmation bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) and [over-fitting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting). (Of Algorithmic Information Theory, [Marvin Minsky's final advice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfY-DRsE86s&feature=youtu.be&t=1h30m02s) was that, ""Everybody should learn all about it and spend the rest of their lives working on it."") See [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1AxVXt2Gv4&feature=youtu.be) for an interesting podcast interview.
@@ -15159,18 +15464,6 @@ The Sky Mile Tower proposed to be built in Tokyo, Japan aims to do just that. Bu
At that soaring height, design requirements for wind can exceed those for earthquakes -- even, according to [a] report [by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH)], in the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. ""The tower will naturally have long periods of vibration that will be more readily excited by the wind,"" the report explains.
It seems difficult but not impossible. When do YOU think a mile high megatall building will finish completion?
",""
-"Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?","The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.
----On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away.
----This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos.
----LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars).
----The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works).
-However, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa!
-We need backup, apparently!
-Well, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) ""is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network."" Possible benefits include:
-Adding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.
-LIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)
-Can the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?
-","Yes, No"
"Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?","In the 1970s Gerard K. O’Neill wrote and published his seminal work, [The High Frontier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_High_Frontier:_Human_Colonies_in_Space#cite_note-3). In it O’Neill first paints a picture of habitats floating in space, with people living on the insides of cylinders kilometres long, and then describes how one could accomplish this from an engineering perspective with the Space Shuttle, then still in the planning stages.
The Shuttle turned out to be more expensive and less reusable than it was optimistically lauded to be, but it stands to reason: where are the space settlements? Certainly not in low earth orbit.
But they don’t have to be. [What once pushed the envelope of the technically feasible is now well established as doable](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/). The [Mir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir) was an initially Soviet, later Russian space station from 1986–1996, crewed for almost ten years. The [International Space Station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station) took 12 years to construct and has been crewed since November 2000. By the time it too will be decomissioned almost a whole generation will have passed since the first crew boarded it.
@@ -15187,6 +15480,33 @@ Evidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition sh
The following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.
Clean fish is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an fish' body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.
",""
+"What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?","Context
+=======
+
+The property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):
+Soft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers.
+Following the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).
+According to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):
+Premium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.
+The same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.
+COVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.
+
+Question
+========
+
+What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?
+
+Resolution
+==========
+
+This question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2021.
+",""
+"The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?","Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).
+However, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations.
+There are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.
+Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?
+Resolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.
+","Yes, No"
"When will India become a World Bank high-income country?","India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.
GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [reported at $6,490 in 2016,](https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gni-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html) according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources.
The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.
@@ -15199,40 +15519,44 @@ This question asks: When will India be designated a high income country by the W
Resolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.
The question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before India is designated a high-income country, or if India ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated high-income by the World Bank.
",""
-"If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?","The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.
-At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).
-The question asks: If there is a ""Third World War"", what latitude will it start in?
-Latitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).
-Many wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous.
-Likewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a ""Third World War"" are not met by the resolve date:
----
-Consensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)
----
-Conflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.
-This question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)
-",""
-"Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?","P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.
-A good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video ""P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo"" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)
-The question asks:
-IF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP?
-If no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)
-As some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:
-1--61 thought P≠NP.
-2--9 thought P=NP.
-3--4 thought that it is independent.
-4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic.
-5--1 said it would depend on the model.
-6--22 offered no opinion.
+"Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.
+In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.
+In a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.
+When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)):
+1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase.
+2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants.
+In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,
+Given that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?
+The question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.
+This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
+1--
+[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+2--
+[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+3--
+[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
+4--
+[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
+Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
+5--
+[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
+6--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
+7--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
+8--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
+9--
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
+10-
+[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
+All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
","Yes, No"
"What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)","[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).
What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)
---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD.
---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous.
",""
-"Will the Open Courts Act become law?","The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.
-Will the Open Courts Act become law?
-This question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.
-","Yes, No"
"LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?","LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?
The question resolves as the median of the median estimates from at least two studies published in 2021, of the number of total infections that occurred on and before the April 27th. These studies are to be selected on the basis of credibility by the UMass/Metaculus collaboration.
This question may resolve ambiguously if it is determined that the number of infections that occurred before April 27th may not be accurately determined, to the satisfaction of the UMass/Metaculus collaboration, for some reason (e.g. studies are unable to accurately determine the date-of-infection-onset).
@@ -15248,20 +15572,6 @@ After 'dress rehearsal' testing in lunar orbit, during which the Lunar Module ca
As a unique historical artefact from the original golden age of human spaceflight, this Lunar Module would certainly make for an interesting museum exhibit.
This question asks: by 1 January 2050, will the lost ascent stage of the Apollo 10 Lunar Module be recovered (i.e. located, captured, and physically transported to some location where humans have a presence at that time, such as Earth, the Moon, Mars or elsewhere) successfully?
","Yes, No"
-"When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?","The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.
-All told, the set includes:
----Yang–Mills and Mass Gap
----Riemann Hypothesis
----P vs NP Problem
----Navier–Stokes Equation
----Hodge Conjecture
----Poincaré Conjecture
----Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture
-Of these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:
-[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: ""I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.""
-At some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.)
-But when?
-",""
"Tunnel vs. Wall","In late 2016, in an impressive sublimation of traffic-caused road-rage, Elon Musk announced via Twitter that
Am going to build a tunnel boring machine and just start digging...
It shall be called ""The Boring Company""...
@@ -15312,18 +15622,16 @@ A vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high q
More narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.
The date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.
",""
-"Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?","A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.
-The Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies.
-Pathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).
-Over the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).
-Will the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?
-Resolution
-This question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).
-Data
----
-[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing).
----
-[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).
+"Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/).
+As predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/):
+1--
+The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase.
+2--
+The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.
+It is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/).
+But how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?
+Will the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?
+This question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.
","Yes, No"
"Internationally recognized Kurdish state by 2030?","In the midst of the ongoing Iraqi Civil War, Kurdish forces spearheaded by the Peshmerga militia were able to exploit the weakness of the central Iraqi government based in Baghdad in order to expand the territory de facto held by Iraqi Kurdistan. This spurred a long-awaited referendum on Kurdish independence from Baghdad within this territory, resulting in an overwhelming 93% majority for the 'yes' vote. However, Baghdad has rejected the legitimacy of the referendum, as have many other prominent international politicians including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. (Some background [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017).)
Nevertheless, there remains a chance that Iraqi Kurdistan, currently ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government, will be able to win full independence from Iraq either at the negotiating table or by use of force. Much less likely is the creation of a Kurdish state in Turkey or Iran, both with significant Kurdish minorities that have also fought civil wars in attempts to win independence, or at the very least, increased autonomy.
@@ -15453,61 +15761,26 @@ The 2016 global average democracy index stands at 5.52 (exactly where it was in
It is asked:Will be the global average Democracy Index in 2022 be higher than the one in 2017?
Should the Economist Intelligence unit not publish a Democracy Index for year 2022, we will have to resolve ambiguous. If there is significant concern regarding the index's continued neutrality, we should also resolve ambiguous.
","Yes, No"
-"What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?","Context
-=======
-
-Private equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.
-As with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.
-Total annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:
----2008: $312
----2009: $138
----2010: $284
----2011: $336
----2012: $375
----2013: $434
----2014 $544
----2015 $512
----2016 $610
----2017 $629
----2018 $730
----2019 $678
-All in billions of 2019 US$.
-
-Question
-========
-
-What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2020?
-
-Resolution
-==========
-
-This question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2020 US$.
-",""
"What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?","In 2016, [1% of absentee ballots were rejected](https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/6/2016_EAVS_Comprehensive_Report.pdf). 27.5% of rejections were for the signature on the ballot not matching the signature on the state's records, 20% of rejections were for missing a signature, and 23.1% of rejections were because the ballot was not recieved on time.
Recently, a [round of cost-cutting measures in the postal service](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/8/7/21358946/postal-service-mail-delays-election-trump-mail-in-ballots) combined with [Trump openly opposing additional funding due to mail-in voting](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/trump-opposes-usps-funding-394692) have meant that the postal service has wrote to 46 states and Washington DC that it [cannot guarantee](https://www.vox.com/2020/8/15/21369968/postal-service-trump-mail-ballot) that mail-in ballots sent by the usual deadlines will be recieved in time and advises that they be sent well in advance of the election. This raises the risk that many otherwise valid mail-in and absentee ballots will be rejected due to arriving late.
What percentage of absentee ballots returned and submitted for counting in the US 2020 election will be rejected?
Resolution will be by the figure given in the 2020 [Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) Comprehensive Report](https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports).
",""
-"When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?","Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.
-There are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?
-This question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.
-The landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.
-Resolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.
-",""
-"PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)"", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.
-Mind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind.
-According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):
-A considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their ""biological shell"".
-However, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, ""uploading"" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.
-In the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the ""death"" of the person being uploaded?
-Note that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).
-Resolution
-This question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that ""accept"" or ""lean toward: yes"" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the ""death"" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.
-The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.
-",""
"When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?","Putin has been Russia's leader since December 31, 1999, after Yeltsin's resignation. He was elected President in 2000 and 2004, and then in 2012 and 2016. The constitution did not allow him to be President for 3 consecutive terms, so between 2008 and 2012, he was Prime Minister, but he's widely believed to have essentially run the country in that period as well.
The question will resolve when Putin, for whatever reason, is no longer either President or Prime Minister of Russia, as indicated by credible media reports.
",""
+"When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?","Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are ""low-hanging fruit"": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.
+One way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.
+When will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?
+---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms.
+---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate.
+---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions).
+---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton.
+---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted.
+---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation.
+---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton.
+ETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.
+",""
"Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?","Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.
The latest is the [""Moon to Mars""](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:
The NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'
@@ -15516,38 +15789,6 @@ The general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](
So, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?
The question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.
","Yes, No"
-"Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).
-[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.
-Moreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:
-Past studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).
-In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,
-Given that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?
-The question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.
-A biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.
-This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
-1--
-[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-2--
-[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-3--
-[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-4--
-[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
-Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
-5--
-[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
-6--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
-7--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
-8--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
-9--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
-10-
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
-All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
-","Yes, No"
"When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?","[51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.
[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack). Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC).
On what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025?
@@ -15562,17 +15803,6 @@ Note that in hash rate distribution charts, ""Unknown"" does not necessarily mea
5--
One possible scenario is an identified miner openly mining the blocks and processing transactions like normal but with >50% the hashrate. Another (perhaps more likely) is a separate chain being mined in secret with >50% hashrate, until that alternative chain becomes bigger than the main one, causing a deep block reorg that had its hashrate come entirely from that secret miner. If this kind of secret-miner reorg happens, and it’s more than roughly 72 blocks deep, it could trigger positive resolution instantly, since that would tend to be be more than 12 hours worth of the blockchain, and it would've all been from one miner.
",""
-"When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?","[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is ""not fit for purpose"". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.
-It is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight.
-This system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.
-The [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]
-When will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?
-Resolution
-This resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.
-Important note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as "">Dec 31, 2032"".
-One way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.
-The question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.
-",""
"When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male ""pill"") on the US market?","Aside from condoms and vasectomies, men do not have any safe, simple, effective means of birth control. There have been many efforts to achieve this and currently there are [many approaches being worked on](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-08-03/why-we-can-t-have-the-male-pill), but despite [some optimism](http://www.thedailybeast.com/male-birth-control-without-condoms-will-be-here-by-2017) all are still in the experimental stage as of mid-2017.
When will such contraception be available to US men?
For resolution, the contraceptive method must be effective (better than condoms), easy (a minor procedure compared with vasectomy) and reversible (self-reversing without further application, or reversed about as easily as the original procedure.)
@@ -15644,6 +15874,17 @@ In order to trigger a positive result, the following must occur:
---He or she runs for U.S. Congress (party affiliation is irrelevant for our question) and wins.
When will this first happen?
",""
+"What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.
+On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts:
+The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...
+How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.
+In this question, we test one aspect of this fear:
+By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?
+The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.
+Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
+---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)
+---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/)
+",""
"When will Disneyland reopen?","Much of the US economy is shut down in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis. At some point, businesses will reopen, likely starting with those that are important to everyday life and do not involve large groups of people. A reasonable proxy for the general reopening of the economy is the reopening of Disneyland in California as it is not critical to everyday life and does involve large crowds. If Disneyland is open, it means everything probably is as well.
If Disneyland in Anaheim, California reopens its doors to the public, on what day will it first do so? For the purpose of this question, the reopening day is the first day when all of the following are satisfied:
---The Disneyland website (currently hosted [here](https://disneyland.disney.go.com/destinations/disneyland/)) is accessible and does not indicate that the park is closed (it currently has a notice about temporary closure)
@@ -15676,25 +15917,6 @@ For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins
This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).
This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.
","Yes, No"
-"When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?","At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.
-The chosen metrics are,
----
-[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).
----
-[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).
----
-[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.
-This question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.
-",""
-"Will the Universe end?","Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.
-The question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether ""The Universe"" will end.
-Even posing this question is not very straightforward, as ""The Universe"" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.
-When we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the ""sky"" at some ""distance."" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [""observiball""](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [""lightcone,""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.
-Turning this around to look into the future, we can consider the ""Affectiball,"" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.
-We can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [""heat death""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that ""interesting things"" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:
-Is the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?
-If so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)
-","Yes, No"
"If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?","[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player (white) wins, second player (black) wins, or there is a forced draw.
In the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:
1--
@@ -15753,12 +15975,6 @@ Would it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should
This question resolves on the first year during which the majority of deaths in the world, as reported by a reputable organization, are listed as originating from non-disease related causes, AND the proportion of (deaths in that year)/(population of the world at the beginning of the year) < 1%. The intention of this question is to determine the first year during which medicine has eliminated most disease. Therefore, the second condition is there to prevent global catastrophic risks from spurring a false resolution.
One such organization that reports death statistics is the World Health Organization. You can see their report for deaths in 2019 [here](https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311696/WHO-DAD-2019.1-eng.pdf).
",""
-"Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?","In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.
-Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.
-A [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.
-Will we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?
-This question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).
-","Yes, No"
"Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?","The question of whether China's GDP figures are an understatement, accurate, or an overstatement crops up periodically. Some new notable cases have been made that Chinese GDP growth in recent years has been exaggerated. From March 7th 2019, see this [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-08/china-s-gdp-growth-pace-was-inflated-for-nine-years-study-finds), and a similar take by the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189052/china-exaggerated-gdp-data-2-percentage-points-least-nine). They cite [this paper](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/BPEA-2019-Forensic-Analysis-China.pdf) by the Brookings Institute, which describes an escalating discrepancy between provincially-reported numbers and nationally-reported numbers.
Separately, US economist Michael Pettis of Peking University says that Chinese gross domestic product is overestimated since [""bad debt is not written down""](https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2189245/chinas-gdp-growth-could-be-half-reported-number-says-us). That's another SCMP article, March 10th 2019.
Note that there have been papers and arguments to the contrary. For instance [this paper](https://www.nber.org/papers/w23323) arguing that it may be understated based on nighttime satellite luminosity measures. Later in that same year (2017) the exact opposite was argued in [this paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3093296) (also using nighttime luminosity data); that China's growth has been exaggerated, and even that this finding generalizes to authoritarian regimes.
@@ -15784,14 +16000,6 @@ The question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted
This question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:
[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030/)
",""
-"When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?","[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.
-Under Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.
-Russia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.
-In June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)
-This question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?
-This question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup.
-In the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.
-",""
"When will programs write programs for us?","Since the early days of ""machine code"" programming using a very limited instruction set, more and more high-level programming languages have been developed that layer atop this fundamental level. It is common, for example, have a Python script that calls a routine written in C and compiled into machine code. Other languages (like Mathematica) are even higher-level. Still, even a high-level language requires unambiguous specification of the steps required for the task at hand.
It would be much nicer to specify the desired task rather than exactly how to do it, i.e. to have systems that can write programs to specification. Such systems have had limited success so far, but there are signs of significant progress. [This recent review](https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ByldLrqlx), for example, mentions new efforts to ""induce"" programs from a large set of input-output pairs. [A paper by Neelakantan, Le, and Sutskever](https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.04834), for instance, introduce a ""Neural Programmer,"" which augments a neural network with a set of basic operations that the network can be trained to use to solve a task; they showed success in training the network to reproduce the action of a set of simple programs.
While machine learning (ML) systems like the Neural Programmer don't quite output (say) Python programs written to some specification, they do create a program to accomplish a particular task. Given a system to translate a specification into a trainable task, and to translate the Neural Programmer's instruction list into a typical language, this may not be that far away, at least for simple programming tasks. So we ask:
@@ -15841,79 +16049,12 @@ Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur
[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
","Yes, No"
-"Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?","In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).
-The satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.
-It is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission.
-The official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch.
-Many people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.
-More information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite))
-Was Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there?
-This question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.
-The question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.
-The question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will a technology replace screens?","In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).
-What do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house.
-Screens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television).
-But nothing lasts forever.
-This question asks,
-""When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?""
-For the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as ""a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface"".
-If a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale.
-For example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.
-If a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.
-The question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for ""non-screen"" displays is greater than the sales for ""screen"" technology.
-The question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.
-Because the word ""screen"" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.
-If at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.
-Current examples of ""screens"":
-1--Phones
-2--Televisions
-3--Laptops/Tablets
-4--PC Monitors
-5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image.
-Examples of technologies that could be described to ""primarily convey visual information"":
----VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen
----AR ""smart"" glasses
----Smart contact lenses
----[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain.
----2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) )
----3d holographic displays
----[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm)
-Non-examples (improved screen):
----Curved TVs
----Folding Phones
----Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular)
----[""Roll-up"" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/)
----[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone)
-Non-examples (not a visual display technology):
----Wireless earbuds
----Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver
----Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas
+"How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.
+When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.
+How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?
+The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.
+The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field.
",""
-"Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?","Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.
-According to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.
-More recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions ""as well as the average 11th-grade American student."" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS ""uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015."" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.
-This is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:
-By end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015?
-Resolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.
-","Yes, No"
-"Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?","Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (""Lock him up!""), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.
-Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.
-For him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.
-1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).
-2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either
-a) he is no longer President, or
-b) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)
-3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.
-4) He would have to be found guilty.
-5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.
-6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.
-Number 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).
-We will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?
-This question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated
-Note that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.
-","Yes, No"
"What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?","Recently there's been increasing interest in understanding the drivers of prediction markets' performance. One such potential driver is the number of predictors active on the site. Since its inception, Metaculus community performance has improved from 0.175 over the 2016-2018 period to 0.112 from 2018-2020. Whether the change in performance can be attributed to a change in the community size remains unclear, so we would like to prospectively estimate how performance will change as the community grows.
What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?
When the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions reaches 300 for the first time, this question will resolve as the Metaculus community median's Brier score for the past six months.
@@ -15985,36 +16126,18 @@ Whether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. T
If your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?
If after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with ""Yes"", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
+"When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?","In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses.
+National Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) ""the moon-landing of free-soloing"" and reported:
+It’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.
+In June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.
+Hans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: ""It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”
+Per [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/):
+The Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight.
+According to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?
+",""
"Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?","Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/120/).
If Kevin Kelly is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stewart Brand is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.
","Yes, No"
-"What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?","Context
-=======
-
-The property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):
-Soft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers.
-Following the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).
-According to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):
-Premium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.
-The same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.
-COVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.
-
-Question
-========
-
-What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?
-
-Resolution
-==========
-
-This question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2021.
-",""
-"The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?","Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).
-However, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations.
-There are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.
-Will the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?
-Resolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.
-","Yes, No"
"What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?","related question:
---[Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/)
Economic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder:
@@ -16041,100 +16164,12 @@ In 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenari
As of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.
This question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?
",""
-"Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.
-In a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.
-In a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.
-When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)):
-1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase.
-2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants.
-In the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,
-Given that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?
-The question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.
-This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):
-1--
-[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-2--
-[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-3--
-[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)
-4--
-[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)
-Also, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:
-5--
-[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)
-6--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)
-7--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)
-8--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)
-9--
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)
-10-
-[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)
-All results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.
-","Yes, No"
"How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?","Space exploration is a relatively dangerous endeavour. As of 2018, there have been 18 verified astronaut and cosmonaut fatalities during spaceflight. Astronauts have also died while training for space missions, including the Apollo 1 launch pad fire which killed an entire crew of three. There have also been some non-astronaut fatalities during spaceflight-related activities. See [this list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) for more details.
For the purposes of this question, a 'spaceflight-related fatality' is any death of a human being resulting from accidents and incidents that occur during flight (from liftoff until the moment of landing), final preparation for flight, or training for manned space missions. For this question, a 'space mission' is any planned mission to reach an altitude of 100km or greater above mean sea level. 'Final preparation for flight' refers to events taking place from the moment a vehicle is in position at its launch site up until the moment of liftoff, cancellation, or other termination of the mission.
Not included are deaths resulting from testing, assembly or integration of manned or unmanned spacecraft (for instance an assembly worker falling from height, or being killed by a fire), or associated with the assembly, testing, maintenance or use of ballistic missile weapons.
How many such fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?
In the event that persons are declared missing as a result of a qualifying event, they shall be considered dead if and when they are declared to be presumed dead by competent authorities.
",""
-"Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?","Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/).
-As predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/):
-1--
-The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase.
-2--
-The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.
-It is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/).
-But how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?
-Will the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?
-This question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.
-","Yes, No"
-"When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?","Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are ""low-hanging fruit"": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.
-One way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.
-When will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?
----This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms.
----The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate.
----The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions).
----The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton.
----Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted.
----Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation.
----Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton.
-ETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.
-",""
-"What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.
-On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts:
-The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...
-How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.
-In this question, we test one aspect of this fear:
-By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?
-The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.
-Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:
----[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/)
----[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/)
-",""
-"How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.
-When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.
-How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?
-The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.
-The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field.
-",""
-"When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?","In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses.
-National Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) ""the moon-landing of free-soloing"" and reported:
-It’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.
-In June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.
-Hans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: ""It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”
-Per [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/):
-The Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight.
-According to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?
-",""
-"Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?","Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).
-Researchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).
-Will these be popular among at least ""innovators"" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025
-Will 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025
-Resolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.
-","Yes, No"
"Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?","Warp drives. Wormholes. Time machines. These exotic structures are the stuff of science fiction, but also have valid mathematical structures behind them in the form of spacetime ""metrics"" one can write down with the requisite properties.
There is one major physical issue standing in the way actually making them, however: all these possibilities require negative energy.
More specifically, relativists have devised a number of mathematical conditions that may be assumed regarding matter and energy, known as ""energy conditions."" Wormhole, warp-drive, and time-machine solutions to Einstein's equations essentially always require some substance that violates the ""weak energy condition"" (WEC), and generally others. Most simply, the WEC states that in the restframe of a material, its energy density is non-negative. (Technically the substance's pressure also must be sufficiently non-negative; see e.g. [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_condition) for a brief description, and a good relativity text like [this one](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/9712019) for more gory detail, and [here](http://strangebeautiful.com/papers/curiel-primer-energy-conds.pdf) for a recent, interesting review.)
@@ -16144,6 +16179,12 @@ So instead we ask:
Will a sample of negative energy material be created by the year 2100?
To be specific, we'll ask whether > 10 proton masses worth of negative energy will be created and confined to a volume of less than 1 cubic centimeter for longer than 1 microsecond, in such a way that during that microsecond there exists a volume of space that could be considered to have a mass of less than -10 proton masses. (As of 2017, the record for antimatter, an altogether easier substance to make, was [about 300 proton masses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antimatter).)
","Yes, No"
+"Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?","Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).
+Researchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).
+Will these be popular among at least ""innovators"" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025
+Will 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025
+Resolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.
+","Yes, No"
"When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?","In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.
For completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved.
We can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as
@@ -16229,44 +16270,49 @@ As of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.
What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?
Real Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).
",""
-"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-","Texas, Florida, California"
-"Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and ""No"" otherwise.
-
-This market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No"
"Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?"," This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
-"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No"
-"Will the Ever Given be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30?","This is a market on whether the Ever Given container ship (IMO: 9811000, MMSI 353136000) will be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. For the purpose of this market, dislodged from the Suez Canal will mean that the Ever Given has a latitude higher than 30.03000 N (i.e. be at least half a mile above where it got stuck) or lower than 30.01000 N degrees (i.e. be at least half a mile below where it got stuck), by the resolution date, March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this for this market will be the Ever Green’s latitude and longitude coordinates, as tracked by Vessel Finder and displayed in their “Position & Voyage Data” table (https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000).","Yes, No"
"Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No"
+"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No"
+"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
+
+If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+
+
+
+","Yes, No"
+"What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?","This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+","$80M or Less, $81-105M, $106-120M, $121-135M, $136M or More"
"Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?","This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .
","Yes, No"
-"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","Yes, No"
+"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",""
+"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+
+","Yes, No"
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","Yes, No"
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No"
+"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on June 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on June 30, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/
+
+","Yes, No"
"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No"
"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","Yes, No"
"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","Yes, No"
-"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-
-","Yes, No"
"Will DeFi Dominance on CoinGecko be 5.5% or higher on March 30?","This is a market on if the DeFi Dominance metric, according to CoinGecko, will be 5.5% or higher on March 30 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if DeFi Dominance is listed as being 5.5% or higher on the resolution date. The market will resolve to “No“ if DeFi dominance is less than 5.5% at that time of resolution. The resolution source for this market will be the metric currently listed on https://www.coingecko.com/en/defi as “Defi Dominance (vs. Global)”. Any rounding done is at CoinGecko’s discretion, and only the metric Defi Dominance (vs. Global) will be considered without observation of the underlying data. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
-"What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?","This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-","$80M or Less, $81-105M, $106-120M, $121-135M, $136M or More"
"Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?","This is a market on whether the American ""observed mask usage"" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No"
+"Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ","This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ","Yes, No"
+"Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?","This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
+","Yes, No"
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","Yes, No"
"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.
","Yes, No"
-"Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?","This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.","Yes, No"
-"Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?","This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
-","Yes, No"
+"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if a recall election is triggered and ""No"" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.","Yes, No"
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -16339,7 +16385,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo"
+","Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo"
"Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Yang is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2021 Democratic primary election for mayor of New York City. Should no such primary election be held, due to Mr. Yang running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes.
PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -16405,7 +16451,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)
-","Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus"
+","Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus"
"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -16422,15 +16468,10 @@ In response to trader inquiry: The term ""as of"" refers to the time and date at
","Yes, No"
"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Larry Hogan, Rick Scott"
+","Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott"
"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton"
-"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.
-PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
-PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
-PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","33 or fewer, 34 or 35, 36 or 37, 38 or 39, 40 or 41, 42 or 43, 44 or more"
+","Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton"
"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -16536,7 +16577,7 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"".
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Cyril Ramaphosa, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Paul Kagame"
+","Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Cyril Ramaphosa, Paul Kagame, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"
"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -16561,7 +16602,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed"
+","Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Juan Arteaga, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed"
"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -16579,7 +16620,7 @@ PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's lis
Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.
In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Jair Bolsonaro, Cyril Ramaphosa, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping"
+","Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Jair Bolsonaro, Emmanuel Macron, Cyril Ramaphosa, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping"
"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -16613,7 +16654,7 @@ Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Manageme
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
-","Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Chris Lu, Thea Lee, Sarah Bianchi, Martha Coven, Heather Boushey, Jared Bernstein, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Gene Sperling, Neera Tanden, John Jones"
+","Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Chris Lu, Thea Lee, Martha Coven, Sarah Bianchi, Jared Bernstein, Gene Sperling, Heather Boushey, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, John Jones"
"Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/25/2021.
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that President Joe Biden resigns and permanently departs from the office of the presidency before the End Date listed below. A temporary transfer of presidential powers and duties under Section 3 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution shall not be sufficient to cause this market to resolve to Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@@ -16693,11 +16734,11 @@ End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Billy Long, Carl Edwards, John Brunner"
+","Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner"
"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Pat McCrory, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows"
+","Mark Walker, Pat McCrory, Lara Trump, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows"
"Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, subsequent to the launch of this market on March 10, 2021, but prior to the End Date listed below, the U.S. Senate shall invoke cloture on passage of any bill, with such cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
@@ -16740,7 +16781,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt
"Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Kirsten Gillibrand, Alessandra Biaggi, Andrew Yang, Jumaane Williams, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton"
+","Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton"
"Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 08/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
@@ -16793,7 +16834,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Who will win the 2022 Iowa Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Matthew Whitaker, Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson"
+","Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson, Matthew Whitaker"
"How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of principal Deputy Secretaries, from the fifteen executive departments of the U.S. government, who will have been confirmed by the Senate to their respective positions by the End Date listed below. This market specifically excludes an officeholder with the title of Deputy Secretary who is not the second-highest-ranking official in the department (for example, the Deputy Secretary of State for Management & Resources).
For purposes of resolving this market, the fifteen executive departments are: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Justice, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs.
Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market.
@@ -16803,7 +16844,7 @@ End Date: 04/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Who will win the 2022 Wisconsin Republican Senate nomination?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Ron Johnson, Kevin Nicholson, Mike Gallagher, Scott Walker, Brian Steil"
+","Ron Johnson, Mike Gallagher, Kevin Nicholson, Brian Steil, Scott Walker"
"How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Samantha Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.
A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.
Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Power be confirmed to position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""59 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""84 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Power to the position of Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.
@@ -16814,7 +16855,7 @@ End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
"Who will be the Democratic nominee in the NM-01 special election?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Democratic nominee in the 2021 special election in New Mexico's 1st congressional district.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
-","Georgene Louis, Melanie Stansbury, Antoinette Lopez, Victor Reyes, Randi McGinn, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Francisco Fernández"
+","Antoinette Lopez, Georgene Louis, Melanie Stansbury, Victor Reyes, Randi McGinn, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Francisco Fernández"
"Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Israel holds national elections for members of the Knesset on any date subsequent to the launch of this market on March 24, 2021 but before the End Date listed below.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET)
@@ -16857,6 +16898,10 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
End Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)
","49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 or more"
+"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
+PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
+PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
+","Republican, Democratic"
"Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ","","Yes, No"
"Will Joe Biden be the US President at the end of 2021?","","Yes, No"
"Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","Contracts to be added on request","Sajid Javid, Rory Stewart, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, James Cleverly, Dominic Raab, Tom Tugendhat, Priti Patel, Amber Rudd, Johnny Mercer, Michael Gove, Matthew Hancock, Liz Truss, Gavin Williamson, Andrea Leadsom, Geoffrey Cox, Tobias Ellwood, Steve Baker, Ruth Davidson, Esther McVey, Philip Hammond, Rishi Sunak"
@@ -16992,7 +17037,7 @@ Other candidates available on request.","Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan,
"Newport East","Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","Labour, Conservative"
"Newport West","Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","Labour, Conservative"
"Ynys Môn","Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?","Plaid Cymru, Conservative, Labour"
-"Hartlepool by-election","Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","Labour, Conservative, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, Northern Independence Party"
+"Hartlepool by-election","Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.","Labour, Conservative, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, Northern Independence Party (Thelma Walker)"
"Joe Biden exit date","When will Joe Biden cease to be President of the United States?","2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 or later"
"2021 Scottish Parliament election: SNP seats","How many seats will the SNP win in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","60 or fewer, 61–64, 65–68, 69–72, 73 or more"
"London Assembly: Bexley & Bromley","Which party will win the London Assembly constituency of Bexley & Bromley at the 2021 London Assembly election?","Conservative, Labour"
@@ -17009,11 +17054,15 @@ Other candidates available on request.","Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan,
"Alba Party to win a Scottish Parliament seat","Will the Alba Party win any seats in the Scottish Parliament in the May 2021 Scottish Parliament election?","Yes, No"
"Labour",,"Yes, No"
"Conservatives",,"Yes, No"
-"Northern Independence Party",,"Yes, No"
+"Northern Independence Party / Thelma Walker",,"Yes, No"
"Reform UK",,"Yes, No"
+"SDP",,"Yes, No"
"Liberal Democrats",,"Yes, No"
"Heritage Party",,"Yes, No"
-"SDP",,"Yes, No"
+"Women's Equality Party",,"Yes, No"
+"UKIP",,"Yes, No"
+"North East Party",,"Yes, No"
+"Samantha Lee (Ind)",,"Yes, No"
"US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials",,"Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040, Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040"
"Prime Minister Betting",,"Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Priti Patel, Liz Truss, Sajid Javid, Matthew Hancock, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage, Steve Baker, Andy Burnham, Lisa Nandy, Kemi Badenoch, Mark Harper, Penny Mordaunt, Steve Barclay, Yvette Cooper, Bim Afolami, Anneliese Dodds, Grant Shapps, Damian Hinds, Sadiq Khan, Johnny Mercer, Tobias Ellwood, Robert Jenrick, Gavin Williamson, Amanda Milling, Ed Davey, Angela Rayner, Ben Wallace, David Miliband, Gillian Keegan, Dan Jarvis, Hilary Benn, Caroline Lucas, Ed Miliband, John McDonnell, Andrea Leadsom, Geoffrey Cox, Rebecca Long-Bailey, David Davis, Bridget Phillipson, Margaret Beckett, Jess Phillips, Helen Whately, Phillip Hammond, David Cameron, Esther McVey, Kit Malthouse, Ruth Davidson, Emily Thornberry, Rory Stewart, Eddie Hughes, Andrea Jenkyns, Harriet Harman, Daisy Cooper, Jeremy Corbyn, Layla Moran, Piers Morgan"
"Boris Johnson Exit Date",,"2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 or later, To be Tory leader at next General Election, To NOT be Tory leader at next General Election"
@@ -17029,7 +17078,7 @@ Other candidates available on request.","Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan,
"West Yorkshire Mayoral Election 2021",,"Tracy Brabin (Labour), Matthew Robinson (Conservatives), Andrew Cooper (Green), Stewart Golton (Lib Dem), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)"
"2021 New York City Mayoral Election",,"Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Curtis Sliwa, Cleopatra Fitzgerald, Bill Pepitone, Abbey Laurel-Smith"
"Welsh Assembly Election 2021 - Most Seats",,"Labour, Conservative, Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat"
-"Next German Federal Election",,"Markus Soder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Olaf Scholz, Alice Weidel"
+"Next German Federal Election",,"Armin Laschet, Markus Soder, Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Olaf Scholz, Alice Weidel"
"Next Norwegian General Election - Party With The Most Votes",,"Conservatives (H), Labour (AP), Centre Party (SP), Progress Party (FRP), Liberal Party (V), Socialist Left Party (SV), Christian Democratic Party (KRF), Green Party (MDG), Red Party (R)"
"Year of Next Australian Federal Election",,"2021, 2022"
"Australian Federal Election - Winning Party",,"Coalition, Labor Party"
diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.json b/data/metaforecasts.json
index c1c44e3..b06e96a 100644
--- a/data/metaforecasts.json
+++ b/data/metaforecasts.json
@@ -7,32 +7,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.5%",
- "probability": 0.1117,
+ "probability": 0.1292,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
- "probability": 0.2214,
+ "probability": 0.2303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3429,
+ "probability": 0.317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1877,
+ "probability": 0.16620000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 12%",
- "probability": 0.1363,
+ "probability": 0.1573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "56",
- "numforecasters": "45",
+ "numforecasts": "65",
+ "numforecasters": "53",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.5%, More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%, Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive, Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive, More than 12%"
},
@@ -110,32 +110,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
- "probability": 0.0405,
+ "probability": 0.039599999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.12300000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
- "probability": 0.2775,
+ "probability": 0.2783,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
- "probability": 0.3145,
+ "probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
- "probability": 0.2445,
+ "probability": 0.2421,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "32",
- "numforecasters": "28",
+ "numforecasts": "42",
+ "numforecasters": "34",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive, More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500, More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500, More than 13,500"
},
@@ -147,32 +147,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 70,000",
- "probability": 0.1305,
+ "probability": 0.1119,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.30920000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.316,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
- "probability": 0.30260000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.3179,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
- "probability": 0.17559999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.175,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 130,000",
- "probability": 0.0821,
+ "probability": 0.0793,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "65",
- "numforecasters": "56",
+ "numforecasts": "70",
+ "numforecasters": "60",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 70,000, Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive, More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000, More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000, More than 130,000"
},
@@ -184,32 +184,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $400 billion",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.1371,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1746,
+ "probability": 0.17859999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
- "probability": 0.4854,
+ "probability": 0.4921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.1877,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $775 billion",
- "probability": 0.0123,
+ "probability": 0.0121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "21",
- "numforecasters": "19",
+ "numforecasts": "22",
+ "numforecasters": "20",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $400 billion, Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive, More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion, More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion, More than $775 billion"
},
@@ -258,32 +258,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $470 billion",
- "probability": 0.048799999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.04650000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1074,
+ "probability": 0.10490000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.2274,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.32789999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.31370000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $680 billion",
- "probability": 0.28600000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.3074,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "64",
- "numforecasters": "61",
+ "numforecasts": "66",
+ "numforecasters": "62",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion"
},
@@ -304,8 +304,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "114",
- "numforecasters": "101",
+ "numforecasts": "120",
+ "numforecasters": "105",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -363,7 +363,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "46",
+ "numforecasts": "47",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $40 billion, Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive, More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion, More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion, More than $100 billion"
@@ -381,17 +381,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1307,
+ "probability": 0.129,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
- "probability": 0.4276,
+ "probability": 0.4286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
- "probability": 0.32659999999999995,
+ "probability": 0.3272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -400,7 +400,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "46",
+ "numforecasts": "49",
"numforecasters": "41",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $13 billion, Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive, More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion, More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion, More than $25 billion"
@@ -413,12 +413,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than -0.25",
- "probability": 0.1855,
+ "probability": 0.1868,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.31679999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.3164,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -428,7 +428,7 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
- "probability": 0.155,
+ "probability": 0.1542,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -437,7 +437,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "127",
+ "numforecasts": "128",
"numforecasters": "108",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than -0.25, Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive, More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25, More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5, More than 0.5"
@@ -450,32 +450,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $200 million",
- "probability": 0.052300000000000006,
+ "probability": 0.0506,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.20329999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.2032,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million",
- "probability": 0.359,
+ "probability": 0.3639,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million",
- "probability": 0.239,
+ "probability": 0.2382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 million",
- "probability": 0.1464,
+ "probability": 0.14400000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "102",
- "numforecasters": "89",
+ "numforecasts": "107",
+ "numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive, More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million, More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million, More than $650 million"
},
@@ -492,26 +492,26 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3074,
+ "probability": 0.30329999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
- "probability": 0.33240000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.3326,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
- "probability": 0.18989999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.1923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $150 million",
- "probability": 0.1208,
+ "probability": 0.1223,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "125",
+ "numforecasts": "127",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million"
@@ -524,32 +524,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 26,000",
- "probability": 0.037200000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.039,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.0728,
+ "probability": 0.0834,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
- "probability": 0.1883,
+ "probability": 0.19829999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
- "probability": 0.3583,
+ "probability": 0.3469,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 32,000",
- "probability": 0.34340000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.33240000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "53",
- "numforecasters": "41",
+ "numforecasts": "62",
+ "numforecasters": "42",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive, More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000, More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000, More than 32,000"
},
@@ -561,7 +561,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 800",
- "probability": 0.131,
+ "probability": 0.1329,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -571,21 +571,21 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
- "probability": 0.2918,
+ "probability": 0.2904,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
- "probability": 0.09820000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.09720000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 100,000",
- "probability": 0.026600000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.0271,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "130",
+ "numforecasts": "131",
"numforecasters": "99",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 800, Between 800 and 4,000, More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000, More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000, More than 100,000"
@@ -622,7 +622,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "54",
+ "numforecasts": "55",
"numforecasters": "50",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 0.45%, Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive, More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%, More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%, More than 1.2%"
@@ -644,7 +644,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "130",
+ "numforecasts": "134",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -657,22 +657,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Zero",
- "probability": 0.40880000000000005,
+ "probability": 0.4242,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "One",
- "probability": 0.3373,
+ "probability": 0.3281,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Two or more",
- "probability": 0.2539,
+ "probability": 0.24760000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "104",
- "numforecasters": "85",
+ "numforecasts": "108",
+ "numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, One, Two or more"
},
@@ -708,7 +708,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "64",
+ "numforecasts": "65",
"numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 20%, Between 20% and 25%, inclusive, More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%, More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%, More than 35%"
@@ -721,17 +721,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "288",
- "numforecasters": "185",
+ "numforecasts": "295",
+ "numforecasters": "187",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -743,27 +743,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.0352,
+ "probability": 0.0348,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1042,
+ "probability": 0.1032,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.2343,
+ "probability": 0.23579999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
- "probability": 0.6263000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.6262,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "213",
- "numforecasters": "131",
+ "numforecasts": "220",
+ "numforecasters": "132",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021"
},
@@ -775,32 +775,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 59%",
- "probability": 0.1308,
+ "probability": 0.12789999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1877,
+ "probability": 0.18420000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
- "probability": 0.25920000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.2625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
- "probability": 0.2851,
+ "probability": 0.28800000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80%",
- "probability": 0.13720000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.1374,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "204",
- "numforecasters": "164",
+ "numforecasts": "210",
+ "numforecasters": "166",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 59%, Between 59% and 66%, inclusive, More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%, More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%, More than 80%"
},
@@ -812,32 +812,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 15%",
- "probability": 0.0746,
+ "probability": 0.07919999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.1888,
+ "probability": 0.1931,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%",
- "probability": 0.32130000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.3221,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
- "probability": 0.2735,
+ "probability": 0.2644,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 21%",
- "probability": 0.1419,
+ "probability": 0.1413,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "136",
- "numforecasters": "104",
+ "numforecasts": "139",
+ "numforecasters": "105",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 15%, Between 15% and 17%, inclusive, More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%, More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%, More than 21%"
},
@@ -858,7 +858,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "168",
+ "numforecasts": "171",
"numforecasters": "129",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -895,7 +895,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "197",
+ "numforecasts": "199",
"numforecasters": "138",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.5%, Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive, More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6%"
@@ -908,32 +908,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 675",
- "probability": 0.5722,
+ "probability": 0.6076,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.2249,
+ "probability": 0.2086,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
- "probability": 0.1091,
+ "probability": 0.0998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
- "probability": 0.060700000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.0528,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 900",
- "probability": 0.0331,
+ "probability": 0.031200000000000002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "139",
- "numforecasters": "80",
+ "numforecasts": "146",
+ "numforecasters": "82",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 675, Between 675 and 750, inclusive, More than 750 but less than or equal to 825, More than 825 but less than or equal to 900, More than 900"
},
@@ -1483,27 +1483,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3156060606060606,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 66,
- "numforecasters": 52,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1525,6 +1504,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3156060606060606,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6843939393939393,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 66,
+ "numforecasters": 52,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the post \"Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong\" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20\"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong\"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1756,27 +1756,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47382978723404257,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 47,
- "numforecasters": 28,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1798,48 +1777,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38967741935483874,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6103225806451613,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "numforecasters": 29,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "numforecasters": 29,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1861,6 +1798,69 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.47382978723404257,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5261702127659574,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasters": 28,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "numforecasters": 29,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.38967741935483874,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6103225806451613,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 31,
+ "numforecasters": 29,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1882,6 +1882,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.82125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17874999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 32,
+ "numforecasters": 28,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1924,27 +1945,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17874999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "numforecasters": 28,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1966,6 +1966,48 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8075925925925925,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19240740740740747,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "numforecasters": 27,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump wins Nobel",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.10552631578947368,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8944736842105263,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 38,
+ "numforecasters": 26,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -1987,6 +2029,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4023809523809524,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5976190476190476,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 42,
+ "numforecasters": 26,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "...be an environmental disaster.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2008,48 +2071,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8062264150943396,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19377358490566043,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 53,
- "numforecasters": 26,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Trump wins Nobel",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10552631578947368,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8944736842105263,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "numforecasters": 26,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2071,27 +2092,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4023809523809524,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5976190476190476,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "numforecasters": 26,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2156,22 +2156,22 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07461538461538461,
+ "probability": 0.35119999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9253846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.6488,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasts": 25,
"numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -2198,22 +2198,22 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35119999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.07461538461538461,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6488,
+ "probability": 0.9253846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasts": 26,
"numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -2239,69 +2239,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "numforecasters": 22,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6888,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31120000000000003,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 22,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6226923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37730769230769234,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 22,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2323,27 +2260,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8411111111111111,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15888888888888886,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "numforecasters": 22,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2365,6 +2281,111 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9333333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasters": 22,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6226923076923077,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.37730769230769234,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 22,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8411111111111111,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15888888888888886,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasters": 22,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6888,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.31120000000000003,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 22,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2885185185185185,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7114814814814815,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasters": 21,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2386,90 +2407,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7363999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 21,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6084375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39156250000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "numforecasters": 21,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.13119999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8688,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 21,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3745833333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6254166666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "numforecasters": 21,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2492,22 +2429,22 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2885185185185185,
+ "probability": 0.6084375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7114814814814815,
+ "probability": 0.39156250000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasts": 32,
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -2533,6 +2470,48 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3745833333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6254166666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasters": 21,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.13119999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8688,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 21,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2555,22 +2534,64 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2782857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.2636,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7217142857142858,
+ "probability": 0.7363999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 35,
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 21,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.11681818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8831818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasters": 20,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15333333333333335,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8466666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -2596,27 +2617,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34127659574468083,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6587234042553192,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2660,22 +2660,43 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15333333333333335,
+ "probability": 0.34127659574468083,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8466666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.6587234042553192,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasters": 20,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2782857142857143,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7217142857142858,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 35,
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -2701,27 +2722,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11681818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8831818181818182,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2743,27 +2743,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8838095238095238,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.11619047619047618,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 20,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -2786,22 +2765,64 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0695,
+ "probability": 0.8838095238095238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9305,
+ "probability": 0.11619047619047618,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 20,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8738461538461538,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.12615384615384617,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8185714285714286,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.18142857142857138,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 28,
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -2849,22 +2870,22 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4704761904761905,
+ "probability": 0.02210526315789474,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5295238095238095,
+ "probability": 0.9778947368421053,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasts": 19,
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -2891,81 +2912,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.484,
+ "probability": 0.4704761904761905,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.516,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8313636363636364,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16863636363636358,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8738461538461538,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12615384615384617,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.20523809523809525,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7947619047619048,
+ "probability": 0.5295238095238095,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2974,27 +2932,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8185714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18142857142857138,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 28,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3017,39 +2954,39 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02210526315789474,
+ "probability": 0.8313636363636364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9778947368421053,
+ "probability": 0.16863636363636358,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasts": 22,
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7484999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.484,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25150000000000006,
+ "probability": 0.516,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3058,6 +2995,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.20523809523809525,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7947619047619048,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3079,6 +3037,69 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7243478260869566,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.2756521739130434,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.0695,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9305,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7484999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25150000000000006,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 19,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3101,85 +3122,22 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7243478260869566,
+ "probability": 0.03318181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2756521739130434,
+ "probability": 0.9668181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "numforecasters": 19,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.648,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.352,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "numforecasters": 18,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3281481481481482,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6718518518518518,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "numforecasters": 18,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4026923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5973076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasts": 22,
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -3205,6 +3163,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3281481481481482,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6718518518518518,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3247,6 +3226,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.648,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.352,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3268,6 +3268,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4026923076923077,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5973076923076923,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 18,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3289,48 +3310,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03318181818181818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9668181818181818,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
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- "numforecasts": 22,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08388888888888889,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 18,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3353,64 +3332,22 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.018000000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.26894736842105266,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.982,
+ "probability": 0.7310526315789474,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2161904761904762,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7838095238095237,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6933333333333332,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30666666666666675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasts": 19,
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -3478,6 +3415,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.018000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.982,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "aliens invade earth in 2023",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3499,6 +3457,69 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8395238095238095,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.16047619047619055,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2161904761904762,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7838095238095237,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08388888888888889,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9161111111111111,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3521,106 +3542,43 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26894736842105266,
+ "probability": 0.6933333333333332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7310526315789474,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8395238095238095,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16047619047619055,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "numforecasters": 17,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9531578947368421,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.04684210526315791,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 16,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7770588235294117,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2229411764705883,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 16,
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- },
- {
- "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3466666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6533333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.30666666666666675,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 17,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.049,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.951,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -3646,69 +3604,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 16,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5777777777777778,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 18,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.049,
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 20,
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3751,6 +3646,69 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9531578947368421,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.04684210526315791,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3466666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6533333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7770588235294117,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.2229411764705883,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -3794,85 +3752,85 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.933125,
+ "probability": 0.04125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.06687500000000002,
+ "probability": 0.95875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5777777777777778,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.42222222222222217,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 16,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5936,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4064,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5517647058823529,
+ "probability": 0.5689655172413793,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44823529411764707,
+ "probability": 0.43103448275862066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7394117647058823,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2605882352941177,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasts": 29,
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -3919,69 +3877,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7655,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.23450000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5936,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4064,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5689655172413793,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43103448275862066,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 29,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4004,22 +3899,22 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03705882352941177,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9629411764705882,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasts": 20,
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -4045,6 +3940,132 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5517647058823529,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.44823529411764707,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03705882352941177,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9629411764705882,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.933125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.06687500000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7655,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.23450000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.41470588235294115,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5852941176470589,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7394117647058823,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.2605882352941177,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4066,27 +4087,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.118125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.881875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 15,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4130,23 +4130,149 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41470588235294115,
+ "probability": 0.118125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5852941176470589,
+ "probability": 0.881875,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 15,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09823529411764706,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9017647058823529,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.0955,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9045,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3026315789473684,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6973684210526316,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
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+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17394444444444446,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8260555555555555,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08785714285714287,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9121428571428571,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.14,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.86,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -4192,153 +4318,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3026315789473684,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6973684210526316,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17394444444444446,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8260555555555555,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.111875,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.888125,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05941176470588236,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9405882352941176,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9053333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.0955,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9045,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4360,27 +4339,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08785714285714287,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9121428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4403,39 +4361,39 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8220000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.111875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.17799999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.888125,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasts": 16,
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.11733333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.8826666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4444,27 +4402,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09823529411764706,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9017647058823529,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "numforecasters": 14,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4529,18 +4466,39 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11733333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.05941176470588236,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8826666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.9405882352941176,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8220000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17799999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4549,6 +4507,195 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9053333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 14,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4026666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5973333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.320625,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6793750000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3830769230769231,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6169230769230769,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.14615384615384616,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8538461538461538,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05333333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9466666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "ETI is AGI",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8461111111111111,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15388888888888885,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5135714285714286,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.48642857142857143,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4571,18 +4718,60 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5135714285714286,
+ "probability": 0.04923076923076923,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48642857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.9507692307692308,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.045,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.955,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2764285714285714,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7235714285714285,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4591,6 +4780,48 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1853846153846154,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8146153846153846,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7389473684210526,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ {
+ "name": "No",
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+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
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+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4633,111 +4864,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "ETI is AGI",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8461111111111111,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 18,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7389473684210526,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "10 million",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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{
"title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",
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@@ -4759,6 +4885,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2675,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "name": "No",
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+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4780,6 +4927,69 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.11076923076923077,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ {
+ "name": "No",
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+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1336842105263158,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8663157894736842,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 19,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "10 million",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08416666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9158333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 36,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -4801,132 +5011,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8146153846153846,
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- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- {
- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "probability": 0.045,
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- "numforecasts": 16,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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- {
- "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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{
"title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",
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@@ -4949,43 +5033,43 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.09466666666666666,
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},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8538461538461538,
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 13,
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"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11076923076923077,
+ "probability": 0.106875,
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},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8892307692307693,
+ "probability": 0.893125,
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}
],
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"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -5032,6 +5116,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.853125,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.14687499999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Trump dies of COVID-19",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5053,69 +5158,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9466666666666667,
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- "numforecasts": 15,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "probability": 0.106875,
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- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2675,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7324999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5138,60 +5180,60 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1336842105263158,
+ "probability": 0.4310526315789474,
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},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8663157894736842,
+ "probability": 0.5689473684210526,
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}
],
"numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 13,
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"stars": 1,
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},
{
- "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04923076923076923,
+ "probability": 0.49242424242424243,
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},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9507692307692308,
+ "probability": 0.5075757575757576,
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}
],
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.7,
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},
{
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}
],
@@ -5200,174 +5242,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- },
- {
- "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6315384615384615,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3684615384615385,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 13,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4607142857142857,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5392857142857144,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14333333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8566666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03833333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9616666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.027333333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9726666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.175,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.825,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5410,6 +5284,48 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5246666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4753333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03833333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9616666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5432,18 +5348,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5107142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.175,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4892857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5452,69 +5368,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6653846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33461538461538465,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8683333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1316666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14166666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8583333333333334,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5558,18 +5411,60 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24333333333333332,
+ "probability": 0.6333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7566666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.3666666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.027333333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9726666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5579,60 +5474,39 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6083333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.5107142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3916666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.4892857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3358333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.6653846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6641666666666666,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.013076923076923076,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9869230769230769,
+ "probability": 0.33461538461538465,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5642,18 +5516,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.14333333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.8566666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5663,65 +5537,23 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49242424242424243,
+ "probability": 0.6315384615384615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5075757575757576,
+ "probability": 0.3684615384615385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4310526315789474,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5689473684210526,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 19,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5246666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4753333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -5747,81 +5579,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2025,
+ "probability": 0.4607142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7975,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.006,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.994,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.46692307692307694,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.533076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 12,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15928571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8407142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.5392857142857144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -5830,6 +5599,48 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8683333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.1316666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.14166666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8583333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -5894,64 +5705,232 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23377083333333332,
+ "probability": 0.07714285714285714,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7662291666666667,
+ "probability": 0.9228571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "numforecasters": 11,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
+ "probability": 0.24333333333333332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
+ "probability": 0.7566666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6083333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.3916666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15928571428571428,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8407142857142857,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.013076923076923076,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9869230769230769,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.46692307692307694,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.533076923076923,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.006,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.994,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3358333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6641666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2025,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7975,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasters": 12,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.33090909090909093,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6690909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "'President Mike Pence'",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4081818181818182,
+ "probability": 0.140625,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5918181818181818,
+ "probability": 0.859375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasts": 16,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -5978,39 +5957,39 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "50 million",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.016470588235294115,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.9835294117647059,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasts": 34,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26272727272727275,
+ "probability": 0.20727272727272728,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7372727272727273,
+ "probability": 0.7927272727272727,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6020,39 +5999,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38636363636363635,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6136363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2366666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7633333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6061,90 +6019,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7516666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2483333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16333333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8366666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21272727272727274,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7872727272727272,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6166,27 +6040,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "50 million",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.016470588235294115,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9835294117647059,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6229,6 +6082,69 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9325,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.0675,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.57,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7783333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.22166666666666668,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6251,18 +6167,123 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.332,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.91,
+ "probability": 0.6679999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2888,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7112,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4081818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5918181818181818,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.26272727272727275,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7372727272727273,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.29083333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7091666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -6271,6 +6292,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.45307692307692304,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.546923076923077,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6292,48 +6334,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6778571428571429,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32214285714285706,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33090909090909093,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6690909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6377,22 +6377,22 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5557142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.16333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4442857142857143,
+ "probability": 0.8366666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasts": 12,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -6418,6 +6418,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.31384615384615383,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6861538461538461,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6440,64 +6461,22 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28428571428571425,
+ "probability": 0.38636363636363635,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7157142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.6136363636363636,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6592857142857143,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.34071428571428575,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6866666666666668,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31333333333333324,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasts": 11,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -6523,90 +6502,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4592307692307692,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5407692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31636363636363635,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6836363636363636,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.10785714285714286,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8921428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6628,48 +6523,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "'President Mike Pence'",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.140625,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.859375,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 16,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7783333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22166666666666668,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6733,6 +6586,27 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6775,27 +6649,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5269230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47307692307692306,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -6818,106 +6671,43 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2888,
+ "probability": 0.5557142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7112,
+ "probability": 0.4442857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.332,
+ "probability": 0.6592857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6679999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.34071428571428575,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4153846153846154,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5846153846153845,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29083333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7091666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03769230769230769,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9623076923076923,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -6944,253 +6734,316 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.20727272727272728,
+ "probability": 0.28428571428571425,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7927272727272727,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31384615384615383,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6861538461538461,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45307692307692304,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.546923076923077,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9325,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.0675,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 11,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17923076923076922,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8207692307692308,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44166666666666665,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5583333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09357142857142858,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9064285714285714,
+ "probability": 0.7157142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
+ "probability": 0.6866666666666668,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.31333333333333324,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.413,
+ "probability": 0.31636363636363635,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.587,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.261,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.739,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5484615384615384,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45153846153846156,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5690909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4309090909090909,
+ "probability": 0.6836363636363636,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4153846153846154,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5846153846153845,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.23377083333333332,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7662291666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2366666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7633333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7516666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.2483333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5269230769230769,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.47307692307692306,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03769230769230769,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9623076923076923,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6778571428571429,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.32214285714285706,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
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+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.10785714285714286,
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+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 11,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.217,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.783,
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+ "numforecasts": 10,
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@@ -7216,27 +7069,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "numforecasts": 10,
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -7258,111 +7090,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "numforecasts": 12,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "numforecasts": 13,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39454545454545453,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -7426,69 +7153,6 @@
"stars": 1,
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},
- {
- "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
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- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "numforecasts": 10,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.158,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.842,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -7510,69 +7174,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "name": "No",
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- "type": "PROBABILITY"
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
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- "numforecasts": 10,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "numforecasts": 11,
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- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -7594,174 +7195,6 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
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- "numforecasts": 14,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.750909090909091,
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- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "numforecasts": 13,
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- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
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- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17300000000000001,
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- "numforecasts": 10,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "numforecasts": 11,
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- },
- {
- "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "numforecasts": 10,
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- "stars": 1,
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- },
- {
- "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "numforecasts": 11,
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- {
- "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
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- "numforecasts": 10,
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{
"title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -7783,48 +7216,6 @@
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"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
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- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.042,
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- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.958,
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- ],
- "numforecasts": 10,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "“China will break apart by 2030”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -7847,18 +7238,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07090909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.39454545454545453,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9290909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.6054545454545455,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -7868,81 +7259,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.060909090909090906,
+ "probability": 0.44166666666666665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9390909090909091,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.09571428571428571,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9042857142857142,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 14,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5272727272727272,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4727272727272728,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": 11,
- "numforecasters": 10,
- "stars": 1,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
- "platform": "Elicit",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7066666666666667,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.5583333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -7952,18 +7280,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.198,
+ "probability": 0.309,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.802,
+ "probability": 0.6910000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -7973,18 +7301,39 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26384615384615384,
+ "probability": 0.13083333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7361538461538462,
+ "probability": 0.8691666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.11461538461538462,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8853846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -7994,39 +7343,81 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.204,
+ "probability": 0.2907692307692308,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.796,
+ "probability": 0.7092307692307692,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12090909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.09357142857142858,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8790909090909091,
+ "probability": 0.9064285714285714,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4107692307692308,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5892307692307692,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3681818181818182,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6318181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -8036,39 +7427,39 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22083333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.261,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7791666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.739,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasts": 10,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",
- "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.005,
+ "probability": 0.413,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.995,
+ "probability": 0.587,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -8098,6 +7489,279 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.060909090909090906,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9390909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07090909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9290909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.22083333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7791666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.204,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.796,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.750909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.24909090909090903,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.158,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.842,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5272727272727272,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4727272727272728,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.10916666666666666,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8908333333333334,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
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+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ {
+ "name": "No",
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+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
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+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6036363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39636363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.789,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.21099999999999997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
@@ -8119,6 +7783,342 @@
"stars": 1,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "WWIII starts before 2030.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08857142857142858,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
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+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9114285714285715,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5690909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4309090909090909,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.12090909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8790909090909091,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.26384615384615384,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7361538461538462,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.198,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.802,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7066666666666667,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.29333333333333333,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 12,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.042,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.958,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.556,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.44399999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.113,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.887,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.025,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.975,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17300000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.827,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 10,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.013636363636363636,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9863636363636363,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 11,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17923076923076922,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8207692307692308,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mans%20response%20primarily%20stems%20from%20how%20the%20system%20trained%20him&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5484615384615384,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.45153846153846156,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
+ "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
+ "platform": "Elicit",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.09571428571428571,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9042857142857142,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "numforecasters": 10,
+ "stars": 1,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Estimates for Security (Symbol)",
"url": "https://www.estimize.com/symbol",
@@ -13139,7 +13139,7 @@
"title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
+ "description": "0.00% (0 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -13152,7 +13152,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 8,
+ "numforecasts": 9,
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13160,20 +13160,20 @@
"title": "In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/caniglia-v-strom/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "16.67% (1 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
+ "description": "28.57% (2 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16666666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8333333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.7142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 6,
+ "numforecasts": 7,
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13181,20 +13181,20 @@
"title": "In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/goldman-sachs-group-inc-v-arkansas-teacher-retirement-system/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
+ "description": "80.00% (4 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 1,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 3,
+ "numforecasts": 5,
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13202,7 +13202,7 @@
"title": "In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/transunion-llc-v-ramirez/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
+ "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -13215,7 +13215,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 2,
+ "numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -13286,7 +13286,7 @@
"title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision",
"url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/",
"platform": "FantasySCOTUS",
- "description": "0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
+ "description": "0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -13299,7 +13299,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": 2,
+ "numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -18410,17 +18410,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.0%",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -18445,12 +18445,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.5,
+ "probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18470,12 +18470,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -18490,17 +18490,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18530,22 +18530,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.6 billion",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -18564,12 +18564,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18599,17 +18599,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18634,12 +18634,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18660,7 +18660,7 @@
"title": "As of 31 March 2021, what will be the highest seven-day median of COVID-19 confirmed new cases in WHO's Europe Region?",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
- "description": "The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as \"next waves\" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.",
+ "description": "Closed 28 March 2021; resolved as \"B: Between 275,000 and 300,000, inclusive\" The status of the COVID-19 outbreak through spring 2021 is an open question, as \"next waves\" are experienced in the fall and winter. The outcome will be determined using the World Health Organization's Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. The value for a given day will come from the data available on the WHO dashboard at close of business of the day in question. If a data point is not available at that time, the first posting on the WHO dashboard thereafter will be used. Any subsequent revisions to the data are immaterial. To simplify the process, the data will be captured and posted here each day.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 275,000",
@@ -18738,12 +18738,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18788,12 +18788,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
- "probability": 0.27,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18818,7 +18818,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18828,12 +18828,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 4%",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -18853,12 +18853,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 100%",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.59,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -18878,12 +18878,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18913,12 +18913,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18938,17 +18938,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.67,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "27",
- "numforecasters": "27",
+ "numforecasts": "52",
+ "numforecasters": "48",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -18960,17 +18960,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "26",
- "numforecasters": "22",
+ "numforecasts": "40",
+ "numforecasters": "33",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -18982,7 +18982,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -18997,17 +18997,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "98",
- "numforecasters": "62",
+ "numforecasts": "105",
+ "numforecasters": "66",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Andrew Yang, Someone else"
},
@@ -19029,17 +19029,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "$180 billion or more",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "29",
- "numforecasters": "25",
+ "numforecasts": "36",
+ "numforecasters": "28",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $100 billion, Between $100 billion and $140 billion, inclusive, More than $140 billion but less than $180 billion, $180 billion or more"
},
@@ -19065,8 +19065,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "59",
- "numforecasters": "53",
+ "numforecasts": "63",
+ "numforecasters": "57",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
},
@@ -19088,12 +19088,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0",
- "probability": 0.23,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.65,
+ "probability": 0.62,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19102,8 +19102,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "48",
- "numforecasters": "34",
+ "numforecasts": "51",
+ "numforecasters": "36",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 100.0, Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive, More than 110.0 but less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0"
},
@@ -19125,22 +19125,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%",
- "probability": 0.44,
+ "probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher than 3.1%",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "99",
- "numforecasters": "68",
+ "numforecasts": "104",
+ "numforecasters": "70",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower than 1.7%, Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive, Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%, Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive, Higher than 3.1%"
},
@@ -19157,7 +19157,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Judas and the Black Messiah",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19167,12 +19167,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Minari",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nomadland",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19196,8 +19196,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "82",
- "numforecasters": "58",
+ "numforecasts": "83",
+ "numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, A tie or other outcome"
},
@@ -19224,12 +19224,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19238,8 +19238,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "55",
- "numforecasters": "39",
+ "numforecasts": "58",
+ "numforecasters": "41",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Another Round (Thomas Vinterberg), Mank (David Fincher), Minari (Lee Isaac Chung), Nomadland (Chloé Zhao), Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell), A tie or other outcome"
},
@@ -19251,17 +19251,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "108",
- "numforecasters": "72",
+ "numforecasts": "117",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -19288,17 +19288,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.26,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19.0 million",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "198",
- "numforecasters": "116",
+ "numforecasts": "219",
+ "numforecasters": "122",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million"
},
@@ -19315,32 +19315,32 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $55 billion",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "74",
+ "numforecasts": "102",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"
},
@@ -19352,17 +19352,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "99",
- "numforecasters": "71",
+ "numforecasts": "105",
+ "numforecasters": "75",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -19374,7 +19374,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $75 billion",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19389,7 +19389,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19399,12 +19399,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "68",
- "numforecasters": "43",
+ "numforecasts": "70",
+ "numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion, Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"
},
@@ -19435,8 +19435,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "167",
- "numforecasters": "97",
+ "numforecasts": "171",
+ "numforecasters": "98",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No"
},
@@ -19457,8 +19457,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "61",
- "numforecasters": "37",
+ "numforecasts": "64",
+ "numforecasters": "39",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -19499,8 +19499,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "178",
- "numforecasters": "63",
+ "numforecasts": "183",
+ "numforecasters": "64",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more"
},
@@ -19542,12 +19542,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19566,8 +19566,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "634",
- "numforecasters": "157",
+ "numforecasts": "694",
+ "numforecasters": "161",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000"
},
@@ -19579,17 +19579,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "142",
- "numforecasters": "81",
+ "numforecasts": "147",
+ "numforecasters": "82",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -19601,12 +19601,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19615,7 +19615,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "78",
+ "numforecasts": "81",
"numforecasters": "41",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more"
@@ -19628,17 +19628,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "521",
- "numforecasters": "372",
+ "numforecasts": "542",
+ "numforecasters": "378",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -19660,22 +19660,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 9 and 13",
- "probability": 0.48,
+ "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 14 and 18",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 18",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "407",
- "numforecasters": "268",
+ "numforecasts": "416",
+ "numforecasters": "270",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18"
},
@@ -19696,8 +19696,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "424",
- "numforecasters": "343",
+ "numforecasts": "432",
+ "numforecasters": "347",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -19718,8 +19718,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "240",
- "numforecasters": "194",
+ "numforecasts": "245",
+ "numforecasters": "196",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -19736,12 +19736,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19755,8 +19755,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "306",
- "numforecasters": "200",
+ "numforecasts": "313",
+ "numforecasters": "201",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000"
},
@@ -19778,12 +19778,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $1.00 but less than $2.50",
- "probability": 0.98,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19792,7 +19792,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "81",
+ "numforecasts": "82",
"numforecasters": "26",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00"
@@ -19805,12 +19805,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.4%",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.64,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19829,8 +19829,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "185",
- "numforecasters": "92",
+ "numforecasts": "192",
+ "numforecasters": "95",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%"
},
@@ -19847,17 +19847,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19866,8 +19866,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "157",
- "numforecasters": "53",
+ "numforecasts": "163",
+ "numforecasters": "55",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500"
},
@@ -19879,12 +19879,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled",
- "probability": 0.94,
+ "probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -19893,8 +19893,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "140",
- "numforecasters": "58",
+ "numforecasts": "143",
+ "numforecasters": "60",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No"
},
@@ -19911,17 +19911,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither will occur before 1 July 2021",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "550",
- "numforecasters": "352",
+ "numforecasts": "568",
+ "numforecasters": "357",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"
},
@@ -19933,17 +19933,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "81",
- "numforecasters": "48",
+ "numforecasts": "82",
+ "numforecasters": "49",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -19964,8 +19964,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "190",
- "numforecasters": "80",
+ "numforecasts": "193",
+ "numforecasters": "81",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -19986,8 +19986,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "218",
- "numforecasters": "76",
+ "numforecasts": "221",
+ "numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20008,7 +20008,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "95",
+ "numforecasts": "96",
"numforecasters": "54",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -20021,17 +20021,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "261",
- "numforecasters": "118",
+ "numforecasts": "270",
+ "numforecasters": "120",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20052,8 +20052,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "190",
- "numforecasters": "141",
+ "numforecasts": "194",
+ "numforecasters": "142",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20084,8 +20084,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "184",
- "numforecasters": "123",
+ "numforecasts": "186",
+ "numforecasters": "124",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No"
},
@@ -20106,8 +20106,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "169",
- "numforecasters": "87",
+ "numforecasts": "173",
+ "numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20119,7 +20119,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Brooklyn Nets",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20134,7 +20134,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Milwaukee Bucks",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20148,8 +20148,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "149",
- "numforecasters": "53",
+ "numforecasts": "151",
+ "numforecasters": "54",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"
},
@@ -20161,17 +20161,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "160",
- "numforecasters": "86",
+ "numforecasts": "162",
+ "numforecasters": "87",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20192,8 +20192,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "117",
- "numforecasters": "75",
+ "numforecasts": "118",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20214,8 +20214,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "303",
- "numforecasters": "111",
+ "numforecasts": "309",
+ "numforecasters": "112",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20227,17 +20227,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20246,8 +20246,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "256",
- "numforecasters": "143",
+ "numforecasts": "257",
+ "numforecasters": "144",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more"
},
@@ -20264,17 +20264,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.42,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion",
- "probability": 0.54,
+ "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20283,8 +20283,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "159",
- "numforecasters": "75",
+ "numforecasts": "163",
+ "numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion"
},
@@ -20305,8 +20305,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "101",
- "numforecasters": "58",
+ "numforecasts": "104",
+ "numforecasters": "60",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20332,8 +20332,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "numforecasters": "64",
+ "numforecasts": "97",
+ "numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
},
@@ -20345,17 +20345,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "230",
- "numforecasters": "87",
+ "numforecasts": "236",
+ "numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20376,8 +20376,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "160",
- "numforecasters": "98",
+ "numforecasts": "162",
+ "numforecasters": "100",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20398,8 +20398,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "284",
- "numforecasters": "154",
+ "numforecasts": "291",
+ "numforecasters": "155",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -20407,7 +20407,7 @@
"title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021",
"platform": "Good Judgment Open",
- "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#e4878885968d828d8785908d8b8a97a4838b8b808e91808389818a90ca878b89db9791868e818790d9b5918197908d8b8ac1d6d4a78885968d828d8785908d8b8a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
+ "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#66050a07140f000f0507120f09081526010909020c1302010b0308124805090b591513040c0305125b37130315120f0908435456250a07140f000f0507120f0908). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
@@ -20420,7 +20420,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "409",
+ "numforecasts": "410",
"numforecasters": "197",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -20443,7 +20443,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20453,12 +20453,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "425",
- "numforecasters": "72",
+ "numforecasts": "437",
+ "numforecasters": "73",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021"
},
@@ -20480,22 +20480,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 15 and 21",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 22 and 28",
- "probability": 0.63,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "29 or more",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "651",
- "numforecasters": "122",
+ "numforecasts": "694",
+ "numforecasters": "128",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "7 or fewer, Between 8 and 14, Between 15 and 21, Between 22 and 28, 29 or more"
},
@@ -20516,7 +20516,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "167",
+ "numforecasts": "168",
"numforecasters": "117",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -20529,16 +20529,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "304",
+ "numforecasts": "311",
"numforecasters": "147",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -20578,12 +20578,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats",
- "probability": 0.43,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "300 seats or more",
- "probability": 0.54,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20592,8 +20592,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "188",
- "numforecasters": "92",
+ "numforecasts": "191",
+ "numforecasters": "93",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"
},
@@ -20619,7 +20619,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "78",
+ "numforecasts": "79",
"numforecasters": "36",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats, Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most, No"
@@ -20632,12 +20632,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20646,8 +20646,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "223",
- "numforecasters": "83",
+ "numforecasts": "225",
+ "numforecasters": "85",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021"
},
@@ -20668,7 +20668,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "111",
+ "numforecasts": "112",
"numforecasters": "44",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -20681,12 +20681,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $75 billion",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.28,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20696,7 +20696,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20705,7 +20705,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "247",
+ "numforecasts": "251",
"numforecasters": "68",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion"
@@ -20718,16 +20718,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "170",
+ "numforecasts": "174",
"numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -20740,7 +20740,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20750,11 +20750,11 @@
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.93,
+ "probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "127",
+ "numforecasts": "130",
"numforecasters": "69",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador, Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador, No"
@@ -20767,16 +20767,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.82,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "280",
+ "numforecasts": "284",
"numforecasters": "139",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -20847,7 +20847,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "195",
+ "numforecasts": "196",
"numforecasters": "68",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021"
@@ -20874,7 +20874,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "211",
+ "numforecasts": "212",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No"
@@ -20897,12 +20897,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 2.000 but less than 2.500",
- "probability": 0.62,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -20911,7 +20911,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "287",
+ "numforecasts": "290",
"numforecasters": "74",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000"
@@ -20933,7 +20933,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "225",
+ "numforecasts": "227",
"numforecasters": "86",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -20960,8 +20960,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "112",
- "numforecasters": "76",
+ "numforecasts": "113",
+ "numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher"
},
@@ -20973,16 +20973,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "175",
+ "numforecasts": "179",
"numforecasters": "81",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -20995,17 +20995,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.79,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "233",
- "numforecasters": "64",
+ "numforecasts": "242",
+ "numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -21031,7 +21031,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "495",
+ "numforecasts": "497",
"numforecasters": "197",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No"
@@ -21063,7 +21063,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "454",
+ "numforecasts": "456",
"numforecasters": "217",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No"
@@ -21085,7 +21085,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "283",
+ "numforecasts": "284",
"numforecasters": "147",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21107,7 +21107,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "376",
+ "numforecasts": "377",
"numforecasters": "228",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21129,7 +21129,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "298",
+ "numforecasts": "300",
"numforecasters": "103",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21152,16 +21152,16 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "353",
+ "numforecasts": "358",
"numforecasters": "104",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No"
@@ -21183,7 +21183,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "254",
+ "numforecasts": "255",
"numforecasters": "126",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21201,26 +21201,26 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.59,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021",
- "probability": 0.33,
+ "probability": 0.34,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "274",
+ "numforecasts": "278",
"numforecasters": "99",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
@@ -21264,7 +21264,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "415",
+ "numforecasts": "416",
"numforecasters": "209",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21286,7 +21286,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "115",
+ "numforecasts": "116",
"numforecasters": "61",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21331,12 +21331,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00",
- "probability": 0.72,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -21345,7 +21345,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "280",
+ "numforecasts": "282",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $2.00, Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive, More than $2.50 but less than $3.00, Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive, More than $3.50"
@@ -21358,7 +21358,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes, only for president",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -21368,7 +21368,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, for both president and parliament",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -21377,7 +21377,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "144",
+ "numforecasts": "145",
"numforecasters": "30",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only for president, Yes, only for parliament, Yes, for both president and parliament, No"
@@ -21399,8 +21399,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "481",
- "numforecasters": "208",
+ "numforecasts": "489",
+ "numforecasters": "210",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -21422,12 +21422,12 @@
},
{
"name": "A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -21441,7 +21441,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "223",
+ "numforecasts": "225",
"numforecasters": "83",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"
@@ -21454,16 +21454,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.26,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.74,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "613",
+ "numforecasts": "617",
"numforecasters": "202",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21481,7 +21481,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -21496,12 +21496,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 8.0%",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "573",
- "numforecasters": "252",
+ "numforecasts": "576",
+ "numforecasters": "253",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%"
},
@@ -21537,8 +21537,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1868",
- "numforecasters": "608",
+ "numforecasts": "1893",
+ "numforecasters": "616",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more"
},
@@ -21569,7 +21569,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "524",
+ "numforecasts": "525",
"numforecasters": "218",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more"
@@ -21591,8 +21591,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "345",
- "numforecasters": "208",
+ "numforecasts": "346",
+ "numforecasters": "209",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -21613,8 +21613,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "579",
- "numforecasters": "254",
+ "numforecasts": "588",
+ "numforecasters": "255",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -21635,7 +21635,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "237",
+ "numforecasts": "240",
"numforecasters": "126",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21679,7 +21679,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "334",
+ "numforecasts": "339",
"numforecasters": "167",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21716,8 +21716,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "324",
- "numforecasters": "88",
+ "numforecasts": "336",
+ "numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021"
},
@@ -21738,8 +21738,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "244",
- "numforecasters": "60",
+ "numforecasts": "246",
+ "numforecasters": "61",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -21760,8 +21760,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
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- "numforecasters": "173",
+ "numforecasts": "335",
+ "numforecasters": "174",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -21782,7 +21782,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "274",
+ "numforecasts": "276",
"numforecasters": "107",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21810,17 +21810,17 @@
},
{
"name": "7 or 8",
- "probability": 0.99,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "9 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1487",
- "numforecasters": "212",
+ "numforecasts": "1498",
+ "numforecasters": "214",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more"
},
@@ -21841,8 +21841,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "302",
- "numforecasters": "64",
+ "numforecasts": "305",
+ "numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -21959,7 +21959,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "576",
+ "numforecasts": "582",
"numforecasters": "157",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021"
@@ -21981,7 +21981,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "778",
+ "numforecasts": "781",
"numforecasters": "157",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -21994,17 +21994,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.00%",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.48,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.24,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -22018,8 +22018,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "523",
- "numforecasters": "230",
+ "numforecasts": "530",
+ "numforecasters": "233",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%"
},
@@ -22046,17 +22046,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.52,
+ "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.6 million",
- "probability": 0.43,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "512",
- "numforecasters": "94",
+ "numforecasts": "516",
+ "numforecasters": "95",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million"
},
@@ -22087,8 +22087,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
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- "numforecasters": "75",
+ "numforecasts": "498",
+ "numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021"
},
@@ -22131,7 +22131,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "424",
+ "numforecasts": "425",
"numforecasters": "161",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -22178,7 +22178,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "390",
+ "numforecasts": "391",
"numforecasters": "116",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"
@@ -22215,7 +22215,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "709",
+ "numforecasts": "711",
"numforecasters": "205",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021"
@@ -22237,8 +22237,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
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- "numforecasters": "456",
+ "numforecasts": "1188",
+ "numforecasters": "457",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -22281,8 +22281,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
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- "numforecasters": "154",
+ "numforecasts": "346",
+ "numforecasters": "155",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -22326,21 +22326,21 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021",
- "probability": 0.56,
+ "probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 October 2021",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "887",
+ "numforecasts": "895",
"numforecasters": "167",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021"
@@ -22375,16 +22375,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
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+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "328",
+ "numforecasts": "329",
"numforecasters": "76",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -22475,8 +22475,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
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- "numforecasters": "76",
+ "numforecasts": "340",
+ "numforecasters": "78",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2020, Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021"
},
@@ -22613,8 +22613,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
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- "numforecasters": "308",
+ "numforecasts": "911",
+ "numforecasters": "311",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021"
},
@@ -22648,16 +22648,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "677",
+ "numforecasts": "681",
"numforecasters": "143",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -22689,7 +22689,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "250",
+ "numforecasts": "251",
"numforecasters": "95",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, a firm, Yes, a paid backup driver, Yes, both, No"
@@ -22800,8 +22800,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1214",
- "numforecasters": "190",
+ "numforecasts": "1220",
+ "numforecasters": "192",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.5 million, Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive, More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive, More than 20.0 million"
},
@@ -22823,17 +22823,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Yes, both",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.96,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "2234",
- "numforecasters": "898",
+ "numforecasts": "2255",
+ "numforecasters": "907",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No"
},
@@ -22876,8 +22876,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "1119",
- "numforecasters": "476",
+ "numforecasts": "1127",
+ "numforecasters": "478",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -22950,7 +22950,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "285",
+ "numforecasts": "286",
"numforecasters": "75",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 25,000, Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive, More than 30,000 but less than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive, More than 40,000"
@@ -22982,7 +22982,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "398",
+ "numforecasts": "399",
"numforecasters": "219",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more"
@@ -23064,12 +23064,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive",
- "probability": 0.41,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -23078,7 +23078,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "441",
+ "numforecasts": "444",
"numforecasters": "149",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%"
@@ -23100,7 +23100,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "269",
+ "numforecasts": "270",
"numforecasters": "98",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
@@ -23154,12 +23154,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23214,57 +23214,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
+ "probability": 0.03883495145631068,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pierre de Villiers",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.12871287128712872,
+ "probability": 0.1262135922330097,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.5445544554455446,
+ "probability": 0.5728155339805825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.01941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Piolle",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another woman",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another man",
- "probability": 0.1485148514851485,
+ "probability": 0.14563106796116507,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23279,22 +23279,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.6435643564356436,
+ "probability": 0.712871287128713,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
- "probability": 0.1089108910891089,
+ "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
- "probability": 0.20792079207920794,
+ "probability": 0.17821782178217824,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither of them",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
+ "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23329,17 +23329,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)",
- "probability": 0.7,
+ "probability": 0.7142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Later in 2021",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not in 2021",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.08571428571428572,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23394,32 +23394,32 @@
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
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+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.017094017094017092,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
- "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
+ "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
- "probability": 0.2178217821782178,
+ "probability": 0.28205128205128205,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
- "probability": 0.693069306930693,
+ "probability": 0.47008547008547,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23434,27 +23434,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In May or earlier",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in June (government goal)",
- "probability": 0.44554455445544555,
+ "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in July",
- "probability": 0.3564356435643565,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in August",
- "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23469,12 +23469,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.92,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23489,22 +23489,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.07920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abdelilah Benkirane",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.06930693069306931,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else from PJD",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else not from PJD",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.8019801980198019,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23564,12 +23564,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44360902255639095,
+ "probability": 0.44696969696969696,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.556390977443609,
+ "probability": 0.5530303030303031,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23589,22 +23589,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mathias Dzon",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No election in 2021",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23694,27 +23694,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
- "probability": 0.020618556701030924,
+ "probability": 0.01941747572815534,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.28865979381443296,
+ "probability": 0.3300970873786408,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.37113402061855666,
+ "probability": 0.34951456310679613,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.17525773195876287,
+ "probability": 0.1650485436893204,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
- "probability": 0.14432989690721648,
+ "probability": 0.1359223300970874,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23779,32 +23779,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)",
- "probability": 0.26732673267326734,
+ "probability": 0.32291666666666674,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)",
- "probability": 0.5346534653465347,
+ "probability": 0.46875,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another member of CDU/CSU",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
+ "probability": 0.04166666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of SPD",
- "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
+ "probability": 0.05208333333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A member of the Green party",
- "probability": 0.09900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.10416666666666669,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.010416666666666668,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23819,27 +23819,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "in Q1, 2021",
- "probability": 0.051948051948051945,
+ "probability": 0.03296703296703297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q2, 2021",
- "probability": 0.1948051948051948,
+ "probability": 0.3296703296703297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q3, 2021",
- "probability": 0.2207792207792208,
+ "probability": 0.18681318681318682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q4, 2021",
- "probability": 0.24675324675324675,
+ "probability": 0.2087912087912088,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Perhaps later",
- "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
+ "probability": 0.2417582417582418,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23854,22 +23854,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.028571428571428567,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
- "probability": 0.5142857142857142,
+ "probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.32380952380952377,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23884,22 +23884,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
- "probability": 0.8854166666666667,
+ "probability": 0.8712871287128712,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
- "probability": 0.04166666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
- "probability": 0.020833333333333336,
+ "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
- "probability": 0.05208333333333334,
+ "probability": 0.0594059405940594,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -23954,12 +23954,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.97,
+ "probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -24957,37 +24957,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.39833716101653427,
+ "probability": 0.35524640286087616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.04267898153748581,
+ "probability": 0.034158307967391936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.05272109484042366,
+ "probability": 0.0807378188320173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.008873847646407942,
+ "probability": 0.008793227793586043,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.017573698280141218,
+ "probability": 0.017414039355925302,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.39833716101653427,
+ "probability": 0.42291238435818584,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.08147805566247292,
+ "probability": 0.0807378188320173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -25920,11 +25920,6 @@
"probability": 0.017344956233270977,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
- {
- "name": "Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time)",
- "probability": 0.026017434349906464,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
{
"name": "SDP",
"probability": 0.004400959044262785,
@@ -25954,10 +25949,44 @@
"name": "Sam Lee (Ind)",
"probability": 0.004400959044262785,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)",
+ "probability": 0.026017434349906464,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Northern Independence Party (bets void if not registered as a party in time), SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind)"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind), Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Hartlepool By-election: Thelma Walker Vote Share",
+ "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+ "platform": "Ladbrokes",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Under 5%",
+ "probability": 0.5433431584928442,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "5-10%",
+ "probability": 0.3024610248943499,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "10-20%",
+ "probability": 0.10082034163144997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Over 20%",
+ "probability": 0.05337547498135587,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 5%, 5-10%, 10-20%, Over 20%"
},
{
"title": "Airdrie And Shotts By-election: To Win",
@@ -26147,17 +26176,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
- "probability": 0.15682281059063136,
+ "probability": 0.15909090909090906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
- "probability": 0.1710794297352342,
+ "probability": 0.15909090909090906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2023 or later",
- "probability": 0.6720977596741344,
+ "probability": 0.6818181818181818,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -27550,6 +27579,25 @@
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Boris Johnson to be replaced as PM before end 2022",
+ "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
+ "platform": "LadBrokes",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2857142857142857,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7142857142857143,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Piers Morgan to become PM before 2040",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
@@ -27613,58 +27661,79 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
+ "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
+ "probability": 0.58,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 356,
+ "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 107,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
+ "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 45,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 130,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 36,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-02T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-29T19:49:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-23T19:51:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?",
@@ -27683,7 +27752,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris):\nKamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. \nIf Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination.\nWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?\nIf Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively.\nIf Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 259,
+ "numforecasts": 260,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-16T22:00:00Z",
@@ -27693,33 +27762,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n",
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/",
@@ -27737,215 +27779,80 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
+ "title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 183,
+ "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what latitude will it start in?\nLatitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2049-12-30T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
- "numforecasts": 585,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
- "numforecasts": 185,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
- "numforecasts": 235,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
+ "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 130,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/",
+ "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 52,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.39,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1071,
+ "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 56,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 243,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/",
@@ -27995,7 +27902,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 521,
+ "numforecasts": 522,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z",
@@ -28022,32 +27929,354 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
+ "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 34,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 286,
+ "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 88,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/russia-ranked-democracy-in-economists-index/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) is an electric sports car that served as the dummy payload for the February 2018 Falcon Heavy test flight and became an artificial satellite of the Sun.\nIn August 2019, as the Roadster completed its first orbit around the Sun, Musk stated that [SpaceX may one day launch a small spacecraft](https://www.inverse.com/article/58602-where-is-starman-elon-musk-teases-spacex-mission-to-catch-up-with-roadster) to catch up with the Roadster and take photographs.\nWill Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by any spacecraft before 2050?\nThe question will resolve positively if any active spacecraft approaches the Tesla Roadster to within a distance of 10,000 kilometers before December 31st of 2049, 23:59 UTC.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 14,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T10:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 50,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 161,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.32,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 363,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 92,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6029/flights-on-iata-vaccine-passports-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 183,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.44,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879).\nWill Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?\nResolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 186,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-11T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United States fulfill its goal of landing humans on the moon again before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2671/will-the-united-states-fulfill-its-goal-of-landing-humans-on-the-moon-again-before-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On March 26 2019, Vice President of the United States Mike Pence [announced that it was the policy of the United States Government to land Americans on the moon within five years 'by any means necessary.'](https://news.sky.com/story/us-signals-new-space-race-trump-wants-astronauts-back-on-the-moon-within-five-years-11676176)\n[Announcing the goal at a meeting of the National Space Council,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxvFsqevSdw) Pence dismissed the goal of achieving a human landing by 2028 as ['just not good enough,'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792) urging NASA to achieve the goal four years earlier, claiming ['we're better than that.'](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1110592064079777792)\nWill a mission of the United States, or any corporation incorporated in the United States, land one or more living humans on the Moon at any time after 26 March 2019 and before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025?\nIn order for a positive resolution, the crewed landing must occur before 00:00 UTC on January 1 2025, and at least one crew member must be a human alive at the time of landing. A successful return to Earth or any other conclusion of the mission is not necessary for a positive resolution. \nA positive resolution requires that the mission is more than 50% funded by the Federal Government of the United States or by any agency thereof, or by any agency of the several States, or by any legal or natural person(s) resident (or incorporated) in the United States, or by any combination of the aforementioned entities. \nA mission in which such entities contribute exactly 50% or less than 50% of the funding does not count as a US mission for the purposes of this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 1071,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-11-30T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 77,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 243,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/",
@@ -28065,34 +28294,66 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
+ "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 135,
+ "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 130,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
+ "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
+ "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 43,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 115,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -28123,45 +28384,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 34,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T11:48:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T11:49:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasts": 48,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -28203,22 +28432,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/",
@@ -28236,31 +28449,36 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/",
+ "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.44999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 109,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 76,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?",
@@ -28278,13 +28496,40 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 80,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
+ "numforecasts": 62,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-14T22:00:00Z",
@@ -28294,6 +28539,60 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 121,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 656,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/",
@@ -28349,34 +28648,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
+ "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
- "numforecasts": 222,
+ "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -28413,20 +28696,106 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
+ "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 107,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:14:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.18,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
"numforecasts": 73,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?",
@@ -28445,48 +28814,75 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/",
+ "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons),\nThe Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021.\nFor those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme.\nA mandate adopted by the United Nations General Assembly on 23 December 2016 scheduled two sessions for negotiations: 27 to 31 March and from 15 June to 7 July, 2017. The treaty passed on schedule on 7 July with 122 in favour, 1 against (Netherlands), and 1 official abstention (Singapore). 69 nations did not vote, among them all of the nuclear weapon states and all NATO members except the Netherlands.\nWhile [people are skeptical](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/) that this ban will cause any current nuclear state to imminently give up their nuclear weapons, it still may have the effect of preventing current non-nuclear states from gaining nuclear weapons. This mirrors the goal of the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons).\nWill a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports that a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons developed at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st, 2101. In case credible media disagrees, consensus will be determined via a vote in the comment section. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
+ "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 260,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
+ "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
+ "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 27,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 330,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/",
@@ -28515,21 +28911,48 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6706/construction-date-of-first-oneill-cylinder/",
+ "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 148,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-19T04:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-12-31T07:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.67,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 279,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/",
@@ -28547,34 +28970,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/",
+ "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n",
- "numforecasts": 148,
+ "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 74,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -28611,66 +29018,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/",
+ "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 74,
+ "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 153,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T14:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6793/when-will-an-electric-bike-win-supercross/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-04-20T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -28680,7 +29039,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n",
- "numforecasts": 16,
+ "numforecasts": 19,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
@@ -28691,20 +29050,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/",
+ "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 150,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?",
@@ -28722,33 +29092,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n",
- "numforecasts": 371,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
@@ -28765,45 +29108,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
+ "numforecasts": 52,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
@@ -28872,6 +29183,38 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n",
+ "numforecasts": 508,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/",
@@ -28899,38 +29242,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 508,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 298,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/",
@@ -28948,61 +29259,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 186,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
+ "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 269,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -29013,17 +29281,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
+ "numforecasts": 154,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z",
@@ -29034,48 +29302,134 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5554/5th-ave-apple-store-closure-during-winter/",
+ "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.45,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.55,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "On October 29, 2020, CNBC host Scott Wapner [tweeted](https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC):\nHearing Tim Cook tell @CNBCJosh that the virus makes it too hard to give guidance highlights a big risk for the economy — that while we won’t lock down again, businesses could decide to shut their stores for periods rather than risk their customers or employees getting sick.\nLet's focus on Apple, since the company presumably has the resources and wherewithal to be able to implement best practice preventive measures, and understanding the precautions that they choose to implement may help shed light on the likely decisions of similar retail businesses.\nThe \"always open\" flagship [5th Ave Apple Store](https://www.apple.com/retail/fifthavenue/) location in New York City is providing face masks to shoppers, enforcing social distancing, doing temperature checks, and performing continuous cleaning, according to the store's website. But will these measures be enough to prevent a significant store closure during the 2020/2021 winter season?\nWill Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?\nResolution will be determined according to announcements made by Apple regarding opening and closing dates of their 5th Ave location.\n",
- "numforecasts": 247,
+ "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 142,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-02T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-15T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T19:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/",
+ "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 983,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 171,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 76,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-10-03T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 114,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 103,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 97,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/",
@@ -29109,18 +29463,34 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/",
+ "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
+ "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will PHP die?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 97,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -29151,6 +29521,65 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 133,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.53,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.47,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 229,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/",
@@ -29167,38 +29596,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will PHP die?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day poverty be in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4851/what-will-the-percentage-of-the-world-population-in-190-a-day-poverty-be-in-2030/",
@@ -29216,32 +29613,96 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/",
+ "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 98,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
+ "probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions.\nThe legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as \"[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)\", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to \"hard living conditions or difficult personal situations\".\nSince then, abortion has been legal under three conditions:\n---danger to the life or health of the mother \n---high probability of permanent an irreversible impairment of the fetus \n---suspicion that pregnancy was caused by rape or incest \nIn November 2020, Constitutional Tribunal declared that it will strike down the provision that allowed for abortion in case of fetal impairment. The judgment went into effect on January 27. The decision caused [waves of protest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_women%27s_strike_protests_in_Poland) in Poland.\nSelection of judges to the tribunal was considered illegal by opposition parties, due to [earlier controversies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Polish_Constitutional_Court_crisis). After the ruling, the tribunal was called \"[pseudotribunal](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/warszawa/tk-o-aborcji-trzaskowski-to-swiadome-i-wyrachowane-dzialanie-na-szkode-panstwa/8q9x5sm)\" and \"[an addition to the Kaczyński's party](https://www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2020-10-23/panstwo-nie-moze-zmuszac-obywateli-do-heroizmu-holownia-o-werdykcie-tk/)\" by opposition leaders (Rafał Trzaskowski and Szymon Hołownia respectively).\nOpposition [criticized the decision](https://euobserver.com/justice/150752), including claims that the judgment is invalid and that it killed the \"abortion compromise\". They believe that the situation will allow for reevaluation of abortion law once PiS is out of power. This could bringing it closer to what is present in other nations of Europe.\nIn February 2021, leading opposition party - Civic Platform (PO) [proposed a plan](https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polands-main-opposition-party-presents-womens-rights-project-19945) that would legalize termination of pregnancy up to 12 weeks with condition of a consultation with a physician and a psychologist.\nWill there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?\nIf any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions conducted during any year between 2020 to 2030 inclusive is at least 11,100, the question will resolve positive.\nOtherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative.\nOtherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
+ "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 972,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 298,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 71,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 403,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/",
@@ -29259,7 +29720,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/).\nJeff McAulay argued,\nEvery major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents.\nStephen Zoepf countered,\nI agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. However, I feel that major technological, policy, and consumer barriers mean that commercial availability of the technology in the next 8 years is unlikely.\nWill driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?\nIf Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z",
@@ -29269,33 +29730,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/",
@@ -29344,6 +29778,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-15T18:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-16T18:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/",
@@ -29360,13 +29810,40 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.54,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 382,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
- "numforecasts": 228,
+ "numforecasts": 229,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-01T23:00:00Z",
@@ -29376,6 +29853,60 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.73,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 71,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.11,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.89,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 63,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/",
@@ -29409,64 +29940,32 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/",
+ "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.67,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.89,
+ "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
+ "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 374,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6875/total-retail-sales-in-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:33:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:33:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4360/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-japanese-passenger-car-fleet/",
@@ -29585,6 +30084,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 196,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/",
@@ -29601,6 +30116,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=124411317§ion=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 137,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/",
@@ -29634,99 +30192,99 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/",
+ "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 137,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.58,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 93,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 130,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic by at the next presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6429/berlusconi-back-as-president-of-italy/",
+ "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The [President of the Italian Republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Italy) is elected by a college comprising both chambers of the Italian Parliament, and 58 special electors appointed by the regional councils. A two-thirds vote is required to elect on any of the first three rounds of balloting and after that a simple majority suffices.\nThe term of the current President of Italy, Sergio Mattarella, is set to expire at the end of January 2022. Silvio Berlusconi, who never denied his interest in the position, could now have an opportunity to grab it, thanks to the recent political crisis.\nItalian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [resigned on January 26](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55802611). Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia (FI), could [lend its support to a new coalition government](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/world/europe/italy-government-conte.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20210126&instance_id=26406&nl=morning-briefing®i_id=124411317§ion=topNews&segment_id=50252&te=1&user_id=f9b4299b888fb043c19d31525a9823ba), or hope that the lack of a working majority forces the current President to call a snap parliamentary election, where the centre left coalition (historically led by FI, but now dominated by Lega and Fratelli d'Italia) could gain enough seats to control the presidential election in 2022.\nWill Silvio Berlusconi become President of the Italian Republic at the next presidential election?\nThis question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office of President of the Italian Republic during the next presidential election, negative otherwise.\nIf no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nThe question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held.\n",
- "numforecasts": 16,
+ "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 208,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n",
- "numforecasts": 330,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -29746,6 +30304,92 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 287,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.\nOn 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).\nAfter Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.\nA Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. \nAccording to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):\nThe fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. \nWill no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?\nThis question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.\nIn case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 403,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 519,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/",
@@ -29773,38 +30417,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 519,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/",
@@ -29822,7 +30434,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n",
- "numforecasts": 271,
+ "numforecasts": 272,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z",
@@ -29833,36 +30445,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
+ "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 460,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
- "numforecasts": 189,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?",
@@ -29892,29 +30499,72 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/",
+ "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 49,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.46,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.54,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021.\nWill Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if it is possible to purchase an iMac on [apple.com](http://apple.com) that ships before the end of 2021.The product in question must be a iMac, it must be sold to consumers, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
+ "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n",
+ "numforecasts": 589,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.18,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 177,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -29951,7 +30601,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasts": 61,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
@@ -29962,29 +30612,29 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/",
+ "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
+ "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 131,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -30016,48 +30666,75 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/",
+ "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
+ "probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n",
- "numforecasts": 131,
+ "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 43,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/",
+ "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
+ "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 22,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.63,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.37,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 111,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4433/if-biden-becomes-president-will-there-be-an-expansion-of-the-keystone-pipeline-system-of-at-least-100-km-in-length-by-the-end-of-2024/",
@@ -30085,6 +30762,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.47,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.53,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 403,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "As of July 1st, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4815/as-of-july-1st-2022-when-will-top-forecasters-expect-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-to-be-developed-and-demonstrated/",
@@ -30117,33 +30821,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a US state prior to 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/797/will-puerto-rico-become-a-us-state-prior-to-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1898, thanks to the Spanish-American War, the United States gained control of the island of Puerto Rico. It took more than half a century, however, to clarify that relationship. In 1952, the U.S. declared Puerto Rico a “commonwealth.” This is a different designation than “state.” \nOn the one hand, Puerto Ricans can:\n--- \nClaim natural-born U.S. citizenship\n--- \nReceive Medicaid and Medicare\n--- \nVote in Presidential primaries\nOn the other hand, they cannot:\n--- \nVote in Congressional or Presidential elections\n--- \nGet access to other government programs\n--- \nBe represented in Congress by a voting legislator\nThe issue of whether to elevate Puerto Rico to statehood has been raised repeatedly since 1952. In fact, island residents have voted in statehood referendums in: 1967, 1991,1993, 1998 and 2012. In the most recent vote, sentiment on the island turned positive for the first time in voting history: Puerto Ricans want their own state.\nWhy? Well, the reasons are complicated. Those in favor believe statehood will help Puerto Rico economically—a rationale that gained converts following 2017’s devastating [Hurricane Maria](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/3/20/17138990/puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-6-months).\nOn the mainland, meanwhile, opinion is split. A [Rasmussen Reports survey](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/february_2017/americans_support_statehood_for_puerto_rico_more_than_d_c) conducted online in March, 2017 found that:\n40% of American Adults now believe Puerto Rico should be a state, up from 35% in the fall of 2013. Largely unchanged are the 39% who disagree and the 21% who are undecided.\nEven if Puerto Ricans want statehood, it’s ultimately up to Congress. As [CNN explains](https://www.cnn.com/2017/06/12/politics/puerto-rico-question-answers-statehood-trnd/index.html): \nTo become the 51st state, Congress would have to pass a statute to admit Puerto Rico as a state, and conversations around that possibility have obviously been going on for decades. The generalities of this process are found in the \"New States\" clause in the US Constitution. Every state after the original 13 colonies has been admitted under this directive. \nAlthough there seems to be seismic attitudinal changes underway, the political process ahead is fraught. As [Vox reports](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/1/11/15782544/puerto-rico-pushes-for-statehood-explained):\nWhile Puerto Ricans have been fighting about their political status for decades, Congress has shown little interest in changing anything. Washington lawmakers have introduced more than 130 bills to resolve Puerto Rico’s political status, and none have gone anywhere, said Charles Venator-Santiago, a political science professor at the University of Connecticut. That’s partly because there is no defined process for statehood. “The Constitution doesn’t give direction on how to admit a new state,” says Venator-Santiago.\nWhat do you think? Question resolves positive if Puerto Rico is admitted as a United States state before January 1, 2035.\n",
- "numforecasts": 403,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
@@ -30160,29 +30837,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 642,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 232,
+ "numforecasts": 234,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z",
@@ -30193,31 +30854,20 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/",
+ "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 2787,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 673,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?",
@@ -30247,115 +30897,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,000 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6777/will-brazil-have-2000-covid-deaths-per-day/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.96,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "During the first wave in Brazil, the 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths peaked at just over 1,050 deaths. Now, while total official deaths surpass 270,000, the country is experiencing a second deadlier wave, with [record-breaking](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-56264425) COVID-19 deaths per day. Vaccination is still at a [slow pace](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/28/opinion/brazil-covid-vaccines.html) and a new coronavirus variant, [P1](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/01/brazil-covid-variant-p1-britain) (more transmissible and with some chance to [evade the immune protection](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/health/covid-19-coronavirus-brazil-variant.html) of previous illness), is imposing large stress over the national healthcare system, already close to its [full capacity](https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-in-brazil-overwhelms-local-hospitals-hits-younger-patients-11614705337).\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Brazil have a 7-day rolling average above 2,500 COVID-19 deaths before 1 June 2021?\n--- \nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 7-day rolling average of confirmed COVID-19 deaths equal to or above 2,500 in Brazil before 1 June 2021 according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/brazil?country=~BRA).\n--- \nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution.\nThe 24 hours retroactively closing is regarding the operationalization of a similar [question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/5543/severity-of-uk-second-wave/#comment-47286). \n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n",
- "numforecasts": 170,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/",
+ "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
+ "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 263,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-10-03T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -30386,6 +30939,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/",
@@ -30414,107 +30983,32 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/",
+ "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
+ "probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
+ "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operations?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4519/when-will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-begin-operations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-02T02:23:48.853000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-12-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6813/fertility-rate-be-in-usa-for-the-year-2025/",
@@ -30531,22 +31025,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
- "numforecasts": 133,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/",
@@ -30563,22 +31041,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6689/skyroot-aerospace-successful-satellite-launch/",
@@ -30595,6 +31057,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.33,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 116,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/",
@@ -30623,75 +31112,21 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n",
- "numforecasts": 972,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
+ "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 81,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
"close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
- "numforecasts": 171,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/",
@@ -30714,7 +31149,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n",
- "numforecasts": 44,
+ "numforecasts": 46,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z",
@@ -30724,6 +31159,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will GTA VI be released in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/",
@@ -30740,6 +31202,156 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 60,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 110,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 133,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 118,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 100,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 167,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/",
@@ -30768,284 +31380,75 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
+ "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 409,
+ "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 61,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/",
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 204,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-15T18:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-16T18:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
+ "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.99,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 184,
+ "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 1349,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.54,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 382,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Erdogan has been the de-facto head of state in Turkey since 2003. He is now serving as the 12th and current President of Turkey, but previously served as Prime Minister of Turkey from 2003 to 2014.\nHe was [last re-elected in 2018 with 52% of the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Turkish_presidential_election), and has already expressed interest for the next elections with his [Vision 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#/media/File:RTE_se%C3%A7im_pankart%C4%B1.jpg)\nHowever, his AKP party lost the [municipal elections in Istanbul and Ankara in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_local_elections) suggesting Erdogan might lose the next election\nWill Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Erdogan has been re-elected President of Turkey following the conclusion of the 2023 Presidential Election (or previously if elections are anticipated).\nResolves negatively if for any reason Erdogan is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in Turkey before the end of 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 100,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 66,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/",
@@ -31062,6 +31465,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 411,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5319/dutch-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
@@ -31105,6 +31535,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 52,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/",
@@ -31132,22 +31578,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n",
- "numforecasts": 214,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/",
@@ -31218,6 +31648,60 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 2808,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 95,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/",
@@ -31316,29 +31800,83 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/",
+ "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 93,
+ "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 45,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.96,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.040000000000000036,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 144,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -31359,48 +31897,32 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
+ "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.32,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 200,
+ "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 237,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/",
@@ -31418,101 +31940,95 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/",
+ "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 130,
+ "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 135,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4628/will-one-of-givewells-2019-top-charities-be-estimated-as-the-most-cost-effective-charity-in-2031/",
+ "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.31,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.69,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against [taking these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nGiveWell usually updates its list of top charities on an annual basis. Will the most cost-effective charity on GiveWell's 2031 list, according to GiveWell's \"cost per life saved\" metric, be a charity that also appeared on the 2019 list of top charities?\nGiveWell's [2019 top charities](https://blog.givewell.org/2019/11/26/announcing-our-2019-top-charities/) are:\n---Malaria Consortium \n---Against Malaria Foundation \n---Helen Keller International \n---Deworm the World Initiative \n---SCI Foundation \n---Sightsavers' deworming program[1] \n---END Fund's deworming program[1] \n---GiveDirectly \nIf the 2031 top charity with the highest estimated cost-effectiveness is on this list, the question resolves affirmative. If it is NOT on this list, the question resolves negative.\nSome clarifications:\nGiveWell usually releases its list of top charities near the end of the year, so when I say \"2019 top charities\", that refers to the list that was published near the end of 2019 and will probably remain unchanged throughout most of 2020.\nIf GiveWell ceases to exist or ceases to publish top charities, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell no longer recommends any global poverty charities but still maintains a top charity list, the question resolves as negative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity does not have the same name as any on the 2019 list, but came out of a 2019 charity being renamed, merged with another charity, or spun off, AND is being recommended on the basis of the same intervention as in 2019 (e.g., if Against Malaria Foundation merges with another charity but still produces bednets and is recommended for its bednet program), then the question resolves as affirmative.\nIf 2031's most cost-effective charity existed on the 2019 list but is no longer running the same type of intervention as it was in 2019, the question resolves as negative, on the basis that the charity is now meaningfully different. For example, if AMF is still recommended in 2031 but now it exclusively runs a malaria vaccine program instead of a bednets program, the question resolves as negative.\nIf GiveWell publishes multiple top-charity lists, then this question resolves affirmatively if at least one 2019 top charity appears on at least one of the 2031 lists AND is estimated to be the most cost-effective charity on that particular list (but not necessarily the most cost-effective across all lists).\n[1] These charities have multiple programs. GiveWell's recommendation is for one specific program.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
+ "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 68,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3481/will-no-crispr-edited-babies-be-born-in-the-year-2020/",
+ "title": "How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6091/open-phil-grants-to-ai-safety-in-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). [CRISPR/Cas9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is a technique that allows for the highly specific and rapid modification of DNA in a genome.\nOn 25 November 2018, a Chinese scientist named He Jiankui made a startling announcement: as a result of experiments conducted at his clinic, the world’s first genetically edited babies, [Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy), had been born [(Regalado, 2018b)](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612458/exclusive-chinese-scientists-are-creating-crispr-babies/).\nAfter Jiankui’s announcement, Vox asked [“Is the CRISPR baby controversy the start of a terrifying new chapter in gene editing?”](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2018/11/30/18119589/crispr-gene-editing-he-jiankui) and a lot of other people also had the same question. But the answer (so far) seems to be no.\nA Chinese court has sentenced He Jiankui, to three years in prison for “illegal medical practice”, and handed down shorter sentences to two colleagues who assisted him [(Cyranoski, 2020)](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00001-y). No new babies edited with CRISPR were announced this past year. \nAccording to Vox's [Kelsey Piper](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/1/13/21055740/trump-reelection-biden-nomination-brexit-2020-predictions):\nThe fierce global backlash against Jiankui made it clear that the world is uncomfortable with such uses of technology — rightfully so, as there’s immense potential for misuse and Jiankui’s experiments were enormously irresponsible. I bet it won’t happen again this year — though I’m sure it’ll happen again someday. \nWill no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?\nThis question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies.\nIn case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 403,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-08-19T09:26:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-17T00:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/",
+ "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 223,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 118,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?",
@@ -31542,21 +32058,75 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
+ "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.88,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 1262,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 32,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T03:10:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-06-02T02:10:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/",
@@ -31584,6 +32154,586 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 186,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 983,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 160,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-31T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n",
+ "numforecasts": 51,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.26,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.74,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 387,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 234,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 59,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 255,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 122,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 189,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-15T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.3,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 173,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.88,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 63,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 102,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 226,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in a forced draw?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4334/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-a-forced-draw/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Zermelo's theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theory)) says that only one of three possibilities is possible in a 2-player solved game; First player wins, second player wins, or there is a forced draw. \nIn the game of chess, these outcomes correspond to:\n1-- \nWhite wins\n2-- \nBlack wins\n3-- \nForced draw\nIf chess is solved before 2080, must it result in a forced draw? \nFor the purpose of this question, chess is considered to be solved if \n--- \nit is proved that White will win, lose or draw from the initial position, given [perfect play](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game#Perfect_play) on both sides\n--- \nit is shown that there exists a unique result of perfect play from the initial position, which is either: white wins, black wins, or forced draw\nResolution is by publication of peer-reviewed article that is not shown to be mistaken for at least 3 years post-publication.\nFor the purpose of this question, the [50-move rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifty-move_rule) does not force a draw. Games that don't end, are considered drawn, for the purpose of this question\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the question does not resolve before Jan 1st, 2080.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 171,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-01-02T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2080-01-02T04:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 48,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until 1 January 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3238/will-turkey-be-a-nato-member-continuously-until-1-january-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [North Atlantic Treaty Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance between 29 North American and European countries. The organization implements the [North Atlantic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Treaty) that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. \n[In 1952, Turkey joined NATO.](https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/greece_and_turkey_join_nato_london_22_october_1951-en-c193a825-2f1c-4e12-b26d-d35fabc6559f.html)\nIn recent years, Turkey's leader [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan) has been widely [criticised as an authoritarian.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recep_Tayyip_Erdo%C4%9Fan#Authoritarianism) Further, Turkey's [military incursions into Syria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Turkish_offensive_into_north-eastern_Syria) have caused some to [ask if Turkey will continue to be a NATO member, or if it could be suspended or expelled.](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/)\nHowever, no existing provision in the North Atlantic Treaty provides for the suspension or expulsion of a NATO member.\nThis question asks: Will Turkey continue to be a NATO member until 1 January 2025, with no suspension, expulsion, or voluntary withdrawal during the intervening period?\nThis question resolves positively if Turkey is a NATO member on 1 January 2025, and has been so continuously from the date this question opens. The question resolves negatively if Turkey is suspended or expelled from NATO, or if it withdraws of its own accord, at any time before 1 January 2025.\nIf before this question resolves NATO is dissolved, or changed in structure or operation so substantially that Metaculus administrators believe it is no longer prudent to continue this question, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 184,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4859/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-carboncure-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 66,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 136,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 214,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2500-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2500-01-02T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 74,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. \nWith resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. \nGoing forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.\nHow many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nIn 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 36,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:25:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/953/will-mike-pence-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-in-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Mike Pence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Pence) is the 48th vice president of the United States. He was previously the governor of Indiana and a member of the US House of Representatives. Some have [speculated](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/mike-pence-s-2024-presidential-campaign-has-already-begun) that Pence will run for president in 2024.\nWill Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positive if Mike Pence wins the US presidency and is sworn into office by February of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 225,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-02-01T07:01:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 177,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/",
@@ -31601,18 +32751,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/",
+ "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
+ "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 23,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2065-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -31644,34 +32794,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/",
+ "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
+ "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 32,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -31718,33 +32852,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/",
@@ -31761,22 +32868,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/",
@@ -31793,56 +32884,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) \nElon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion.\nWill Starlink set a record for the largest IPO before 2030?\nThis claim will be judged according to reports in The Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg press sources. If any of them report a Starlink IPO which exceeds that of Saudi Aramco and any additional IPO's that occur between 2020 and the date of a Starlink IPO\nIf there is no Starlink IPO prior to 2030-01-01 this question will resolve ambiguously.\nComparisons of IPO amounts will be adjusted for inflation. \n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-10-11T06:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-03-11T06:58:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6460/date-of-next-millennium-prize-problem-proof/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n",
- "numforecasts": 32,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T23:36:29.387000Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
+ "numforecasts": 60,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -31928,7 +32976,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 25,
+ "numforecasts": 29,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z",
@@ -31970,6 +33018,76 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 63,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.17,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.83,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 95,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/",
@@ -32040,6 +33158,92 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 22,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 48,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.24,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.76,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/",
@@ -32126,6 +33330,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 57,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/",
@@ -32222,56 +33442,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
+ "numforecasts": 93,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
@@ -32308,6 +33485,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6879/may-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-05T23:04:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/",
@@ -32356,6 +33549,60 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 85,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-01-15T15:54:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.49,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.51,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 254,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/",
@@ -32399,6 +33646,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 110,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/",
@@ -32415,6 +33678,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 347,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/",
@@ -32458,33 +33737,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How large will Monaco be in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/",
@@ -32517,33 +33769,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/",
@@ -32588,31 +33813,20 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "By 2025 will someone be able to hold his/her breath for 30+ minutes?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/684/by-2025-will-someone-be-able-to-hold-hisher-breath-for-30-minutes/",
+ "title": "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Guinness World Records reports that freediver Aleix Segura Vendrell currently (as of March 2018) holds the [world record for breath holding](http://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/longest-time-breath-held-voluntarily-(male)), clocking in at a mind-numbing 24 minutes, 3:45 seconds on February 28, 2016.\nThat busted other previous records, such as magician David Blaine’s impressive 17 minute breath hold. Amazing details on Blaine’s feat are available in this [TED Talk](https://www.ted.com/talks/david_blaine_how_i_held_my_breath_for_17_min) \nAll very nice. But bioengineering will allow us to push the record up—possibily, way up. Some techniques, like “lung packing,” are already being put to use by daredevils. [Per Deadspin](https://deadspin.com/how-long-can-humans-hold-their-breath-1467541916): \nThis [lung packing] consists of inhaling the very largest breath possible, and then, without exhaling, puffing your cheeks full of more air and attempting to force that air down into your lungs. You are literally stretching out your lungs so that they can hold more air.\nMore exotic ideas, like the so-called [“Aquaman Crystal”](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/scientists-create-crystal-which-could-allow-us-to-breathe-underwater-9772871.html) are promising.\nSome extreme atheletes and freedivers are no doubt experimenting and [pushing the limits](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/explainer/2013/11/nicholas_mevoli_freediving_death_what_happens_to_people_who_practice_holding.html).\nAnd there are documented cases on the record of people surviving without oxygen for long periods of time. As the [BBC reports](http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140714-how-long-can-you-go-without-air):\nWhen US toddler Michelle Funk fell into an icy stream in 1986, she survived an estimated 66 minutes underwater, preserved by deep hypothermia that reduced her metabolic rate to almost nothing.\nFunk’s case was a freak accident. But by 2025 will a person voluntarily hold his or her breath for more than 30 minutes? (The attempt must comply with Guinness Record standards.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 26,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T07:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:01:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?",
@@ -32701,20 +33915,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/",
+ "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n",
+ "numforecasts": 67,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will Donald J. Trump be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?",
@@ -32759,33 +33984,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n",
- "numforecasts": 385,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/",
@@ -32803,18 +34001,45 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6062/number-employed-in-us-education-industry-2021/",
+ "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. \nWith resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. \nGoing forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.\nHow many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nIn 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.81,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):\nFor both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.\nWill scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?\nQuestion resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? \nThe relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. \nQuestion will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.\nQuestion receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 155,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:25:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:25:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 57,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -32845,22 +34070,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/",
@@ -32877,33 +34086,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5344/nobel-prize-for-string-theory-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[String theory](https://math.berkeley.edu/~kwray/papers/string_theory.pdf)\nroughly speaking, replaces point particles by strings, which can be either open or closed (depends on the particular type of particle that is being replaced by the string), whose length, or string length, is approximately 10^(−33) cm. Also, in string theory, one replaces Feynman diagrams by surfaces, and wordlines become worldsheets.\nIn [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-does-not-win-a-nobel-and-i-win-a-bet/) John Horgan won a 2002 [longbets.com](http://longbets.com) bet with physicist Michio Kaku that by 2020 no unified theory of physics will win a Nobel Prize.\nWill there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/",
@@ -32920,65 +34102,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6763/marine-le-pen-french-president-in-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.18,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-04-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-05-12T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
- "numforecasts": 331,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n",
- "numforecasts": 23,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-12-29T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/",
@@ -33006,6 +34129,38 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 20,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 333,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/",
@@ -33039,29 +34194,77 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/",
+ "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 87,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 174,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6874/initial-jobless-claims-in-may-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 23,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-26T22:24:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-27T22:24:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. \nThe [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is \"in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun.\" \nThe website further states that the project team \"expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021.\"\nWill The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?\nThe question resolves positively if the FDA grants approval to the current version (or a substantially similar version) of the implantable bioartificial kidney developed by The Kidney Project. Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
+ "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 289,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -33120,18 +34323,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/",
+ "title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6880/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-may-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nPrevious Questions:\n[Change in US Durable Goods Orders April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for May 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-19T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-28T19:09:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -33162,6 +34365,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6876/industrial-production-index-may-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 15,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:40:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-17T22:40:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/",
@@ -33221,33 +34440,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Free Greens (Frie Grønnes) [is a new Danish political party co-founded and headed by Sikandar Siddique](https://www.information.dk/indland/2020/09/sikandar-siddique-deler-vandene-naar-taler-racisme-derfor-allerede-kender-frie-groennes-nye-leder), a 34 year old second generation immigrant from Pakistan. He was previously a member of [The Alternative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alternative_(Denmark)) (Alternativet) which is a similar left-green political party, which has had members of parliament since 2015 but has been in trouble since 2019 following a leadership change. That party was founded by [Uffe Elbæk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uffe_Elb%C3%A6k), who is the outed leader, and who is now a co-founder of the Free Greens. The new party is now collecting signers (stillere) of which they need about 20k to get on the ballot for the next Danish general election. Siddique is [currently a member of the Danish parliament](https://www.ft.dk/medlemmer/mf/s/sikandar-siddique), following his election in 2019 for The Alternative party.\nPolls for Denmark can be found on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Danish_general_election) and [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/denmark/). As of writing, the Alternative is polling below 1.0%, and Free Greens are not currently part of the polls, as they generally don't include parties that are not on the ballot. Denmark has a 2% [election threshold](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_threshold).\nWill Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?\n--- \nIf Free Greens obtain any parliamentary seat in the next Danish general election ([in 2023 or before](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Danish_general_election)), this resolves positively. If they fail to get the required number of votes, this resolves negatively. If the party disbands or does not run at all, it resolves negatively as well.\n--- \nIf any sitting member of the parliament converts to Free Greens, this has no effect on this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-04T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/",
@@ -33291,33 +34483,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/",
@@ -33345,6 +34510,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 125,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.44,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/).\nAt 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability.\nHe was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay).\nWill Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before turning 76, he publicly retracts those claims. This includes if it is publicly revealed that he has gotten a treatment ruled out by the above quote, after the age of 75. \nThis question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or reaches the age of 76, and has not publicly retracted those claims.\nIf he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously.\nHe was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-17T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T21:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2033-09-06T20:13:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/",
@@ -33362,7 +34570,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment.\nWill Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?\nA report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "numforecasts": 50,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z",
@@ -33566,6 +34774,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.74,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.26,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 62,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/",
@@ -33609,22 +34844,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/",
@@ -33642,7 +34861,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well).\nThe current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. \nHu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. \n[Jiang Zemin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Zemin) took up the mantle for the remaining and two more terms. With the death of Deng Xiaoping and the waning influence of the [eight elders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eight_Elders), Jiang was able to turn his de jure leadership of China into a de facto one. He introduced another set of reforms, centralising a lot of the political power and relaxing many economic restrictions. He resigned in 2002, making room for Hu Jintao. \n[Hu Jintao](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Jintao) aimed to balance out the inequalities that had arisen over the previous decades by adding regulations for the economy and protecting the environment. He stepped down after his two terms were up. \nHis successor and and current office holder is [Xi Jinping](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping).\nWith the exception of Jiang Zemin, who had to step up after his predecessor was factually ousted from his position, all general secretaries stepped down from their office when their second term was up. Even Jiang did after his second ‘regular’ term. \nBut there’s doubt Xi will do so as well. Usually a successor was introduced into the Politburo with the second term (young enough to serve two 5-year terms themselves), but Xi notably did not do that in 2017. [Some](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china) see this, as well as his chairing many leadership positions and changing the constitution to abolish term limits for the presidency, as signs Xi aims for a third term in 2022.\nBut will he? \nWill Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?\nQuestion resolves positive if: \n--- \nXi begins serving a third consecutive term as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, or\n--- \nXi remains [paramount leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramount_leader) past 2022, or\n--- \nXi remains de facto leader of China if either of these positions loose their importance in Chinese politics.\n",
- "numforecasts": 301,
+ "numforecasts": 302,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z",
@@ -33652,22 +34871,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 246,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/",
@@ -33695,6 +34898,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 248,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/",
@@ -33728,7 +34947,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
+ "numforecasts": 107,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z",
@@ -33781,6 +35000,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.98,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 357,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/",
@@ -33797,6 +35043,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6877/cpi-u--change-for-may-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/)\n[CPI-U April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 16,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-06T22:49:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-12T22:49:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/",
@@ -33813,33 +35075,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6870/025-births-per-woman-globally-by-2045/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From a [recent Guardian piece](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/18/toxic-chemicals-health-humanity-erin-brokovich),\nThe end of humankind? It may be coming sooner than we think, thanks to hormone-disrupting chemicals that are decimating fertility at an alarming rate around the globe. A new book called Countdown, by Shanna Swan, an environmental and reproductive epidemiologist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York, finds that sperm counts have dropped almost 60% since 1973. Following the trajectory we are on, Swan’s research suggests sperm counts could reach zero by 2045. Zero. Let that sink in. That would mean no babies. No reproduction. No more humans. Forgive me for asking: why isn’t the UN calling an emergency meeting on this right now?\nThe chemicals to blame for this crisis are found in everything from plastic containers and food wrapping, to waterproof clothes and fragrances in cleaning products, to soaps and shampoos, to electronics and carpeting. Some of them, called PFAS, are known as “forever chemicals”, because they don’t breakdown in the environment or the human body. They just accumulate and accumulate – doing more and more damage, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. Now, it seems, humanity is reaching a breaking point.\nSwan’s book is staggering in its findings. “In some parts of the world, the average twentysomething woman today is less fertile than her grandmother was at 35,” Swan writes. In addition to that, Swan finds that, on average, a man today will have half of the sperm his grandfather had. “The current state of reproductive affairs can’t continue much longer without threatening human survival,” writes Swan, adding: “It’s a global existential crisis.” That’s not hyperbole. That’s just science.\nAs of 2021, the total fertility rate is 2.44 according to the UN, as [reported](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate) by Our World in Data. See also on Metaculus: [What will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/)\nWill global fertility drop to 0.25 births per woman by 2045?\nThis question resolves positively if the United Nations, or some other credible body, reports that the [total fertility rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_fertility_rate) of the world is at or below 0.25 at any time before 2046-01-01. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 76,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2046-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6717/-b117-in-the-us-21-27-march/",
@@ -33910,29 +35145,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
+ "numforecasts": 74,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -33942,6 +35161,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 76,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/",
@@ -33958,33 +35193,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "By 2023, will there be evidence for a neurological correlate of human consciousness?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1459/by-2023-will-there-be-evidence-for-a-neurological-correlate-of-human-consciousness/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "What is consciousness? I once asked my boss, a neuroscientist who tolerated my philosophical predilections, what he thought about the nature of consciousness. He chuckled and said “it doesn’t exist”. Instead of trying to be cute and retort about self-defeating claims I asked what he meant. He went on to detail how consciousness has been glorified, placed upon a pedestal, and that it simply cannot be everything that people say it is. \nI still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/consciousness/). You might think that we can simply say that consciousness arises from the sophisticated physical organization of human brains. This leads to the [Hard Problem of Consciousness](https://www.iep.utm.edu/hard-con/), a phrase which philosopher David Chalmers coined back in the 1990’s. Think about the most beautiful moment sunset that you have ever seen. Now explain that experience in terms of neurons firing. It seems to many that physicalism (roughly, the idea that the mind is just the brain) is poorly equipped to explain the subjective quality of our experience. \nFear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. \nResolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023.\n",
- "numforecasts": 95,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-21T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/",
@@ -34071,22 +35279,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Average S&P 500 return in the 2020s?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5240/average-sp-500-return-in-the-2020s/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/",
@@ -34393,22 +35585,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/",
@@ -34425,33 +35601,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/",
@@ -34484,6 +35633,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5883/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.51,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.49,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Gladys Berejiklian has been Premier of New South Wales, Australia's most populous state, since January 2017. Her term has encompassed both the devastating bush fires of January 2020 and the COVID-19 crisis.\n2020 has seen Berejiklian's response to the COVID-19 pandemic garner praise, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison saying that NSW's management was the [\"gold standard\"](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-08/why-pm-says-nsw-is-gold-standard-in-covid-19-control/12636890). \nRevelations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that Berejiklian had been in a long-term relationship with Daryl Maguire, a former member of state parliament and the subject of the commission's inquiry, have [caused controversy](https://www.afr.com/politics/gladys-berejiklian-and-the-loss-of-innocence-20201016-p565mx). \nThe ICAC revelations were followed by [other missteps](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/gladys-berejiklians-slipups-are-showing/news-story/179973debcff311aa61249c8f708c1e8) by the Premier, but whether they will jeopardise her position remains to be seen. \nThe NSW parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the Premier outside of an election. Leaders may also resign and can be removed by the Governor.\nOver the last 20 years, NSW has had seven premiers. Of these, one was defeated by a leadership spill, four resigned, and one lost an election. Notably, Barry O'Farrell resigned his premiership in 2014 after it was found he had misled the Independent Commission Against Corruption.\nThe next election is scheduled for 25 March 2023, [although the Governor can dissolve the Legislative Assembly earlier under limited circumstances](http://www8.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca1902188/s24b.html). \n(Based on the [short-fuse question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5434/gladys-berejiklians-premiership/) by @helpermonkey )\nWill Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?\nThe question will resolve positively if, before midnight of election day for the next NSW Legislative Assembly election, it is reported by two or more major news sources in Australia that Ms Berejiklian is no longer Premier of NSW.\nFor the purposes of this question, major news sources in Australia are the ABC, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Guardian and The Australian.\nThe question will close retroactively, 24 hours before the event occurs.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 44,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-03-24T12:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-03-26T01:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6292/clean-meat-market-in-2021/",
@@ -34500,56 +35676,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6590/ron-desantis-2024-gop-presidential-candidate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Ron DeSantis is currently the governor of Florida. Florida's COVID-related policies and outcomes have often been compared to those of states like California and New York (with Democratic governors) over the course of the pandemic.\nIn particular, DeSantis' approach to and public statements about issues like school closings and bans on outdoor activities in his state (both of which he has opposed more forcibly than many prominent democratic politicians) have led to speculation that he is well-positioned to be the GOP's nominee for president in 2024.\nWill Ron DeSantis be the GOP nominee for the 2024 US presidential election?\nResolves positively if Ron DeSantis is selected as the Republican party's nominee at the 2024 Republican National Convention.\n",
- "numforecasts": 22,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-09-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n",
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
+ "numforecasts": 21,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z",
@@ -34607,22 +35740,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6560/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-30/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/",
@@ -34725,6 +35842,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 88,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/",
@@ -34742,7 +35886,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 132,
+ "numforecasts": 138,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -34752,6 +35896,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 92,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/",
@@ -34929,6 +36100,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T13:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/",
@@ -34945,22 +36132,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "For the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6879/may-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n",
- "numforecasts": 12,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-05T23:04:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many states will have legalized medical or recreational use of psilocybin before 2045?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4796/states-with-legal-psilocybin-by-2045/",
@@ -34977,33 +36148,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T14:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-15T15:54:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6325/us-below-100-covid-deaths-per-day/",
@@ -35020,60 +36164,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n",
- "numforecasts": 254,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There is an active question on [\"Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result.\nScotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum.\nThe question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum?\n---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. \n---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. \n---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/",
@@ -35090,22 +36180,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/",
@@ -35182,20 +36256,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/",
+ "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 345,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.58,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 21,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?",
@@ -35214,7 +36299,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 487,
+ "numforecasts": 492,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z",
@@ -35224,40 +36309,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6723/dominant-assurance-contract-venture-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract),\nAn assurance contract, also known as a provision point mechanism, or crowdaction, is a game-theoretic mechanism and a financial technology that facilitates the voluntary creation of public goods and club goods in the face of collective action problems such as the free rider problem.\nThe free rider problem is that there may be actions that would benefit a large group of people, but once the action is taken, there is no way to exclude those who did not pay for the action from the benefits. This leads to a game theoretic problem: all members of a group might be better off if an action were taken, and the members of the group contributed to the cost of the action, but many members of the group may make the perfectly rational decision to let others pay for it, then reap the benefits for free, possibly with the result that no action is taken. The result of this rational game play is lower utility for everyone.\n[...]\nDominant assurance contracts, created by Alex Tabarrok, involve an extra component, an entrepreneur who profits when the quorum is reached and pays the signors extra if it is not. If the quorum is not formed, the signors do not pay their share and indeed actively profit from having participated since they keep the money the entrepreneur paid them. Conversely, if the quorum succeeds, the entrepreneur is compensated for taking the risk of the quorum failing. Thus, a player will benefit whether or not the quorum succeeds; if it fails the player reaps a monetary return, and if it succeeds, the player pays only a small amount more than under an assurance contract, and the public good will be provided.\nTabarrok asserts that this creates a dominant strategy of participation for all players. Because all players will calculate that it is in their best interests to participate, the contract will succeed, and the entrepreneur will be rewarded. In a meta-game, this reward is an incentive for other entrepreneurs to enter the DAC market, driving down the cost disadvantage of dominant assurance contract versus regular assurance contracts.\n[Kickstarter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kickstarter) is a successful platform for creating assurance contracts, but NOT dominant assurance contracts. Alex Tabarrok has [noted](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2013/08/a-test-of-dominant-assurance-contracts.html), \"Kickstarter has made assurance contracts familiar, perhaps the next evolution of funding mechanisms will do the same for dominant assurance contracts.\"\nWill there be a prominent platform for facilitating dominant assurance contracts before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that a prominent platform for facilitating the creation and distribution of dominant assurance contracts, as defined in Alex Tabarrok's [original paper on the matter](http://mason.gmu.edu/~atabarro/PrivateProvision.pdf), comes into existence. A \"prominent platform\" is defined as a platform that meets ANY of the following conditions,\n--- \nIts owners credibly assert credibly that their website, app, or program has received an average of at least 5000 unique daily hits in the last 30 days.\n--- \nAny of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was primarily about them: USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Newsday, Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, Chicago Tribune, The Washington Post.\n--- \nA Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted.\nAdmins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 20,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n",
- "numforecasts": 144,
+ "numforecasts": 149,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z",
@@ -35267,33 +36325,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/",
@@ -35321,6 +36352,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.21,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.79,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for \"discriminating Russian media's content\". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him.\nWill YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 177,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/",
@@ -35434,33 +36492,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n",
- "numforecasts": 110,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/",
@@ -35516,18 +36547,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5546/success-rate-for-national-carbon-neutrality/",
+ "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
+ "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 252,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T07:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T07:01:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -35547,22 +36578,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n",
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before Sep 18th of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3109/will-general-electric-ge-file-for-chapter-7-or-chapter-11-bankruptcy-before-sep-18th-of-2024/",
@@ -35617,81 +36632,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Related question on Metaculus:\n[Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/)\nDemocrats won a [barely-perceptible](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5448/demo…) majority in the United States Senate after the [2021 Georgia runoff elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia).\nBut who will have control heading into the last few weeks of the 117th Senate?\nSenate control is impermanent [as Senators learned in 2001](https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/history/one_item_and_teasers/partydiv.htm)! Senators in the past have [changed allegiance](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsWhoChangedPartiesDuringSenateService.htm). Senate membership has at times been changed by [expulsion](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/expulsion.htm), by [appointment](https://www.senate.gov/senators/AppointedSenators.htm), or by [other events](https://www.senate.gov/senators/SenatorsDiedinOffice.htm).\n(Senate-watchers are already musing about the issue. Professor [Paul F. Campos](https://nyti.ms/3qHxt2A) predicted, \"All things considered, the odds that Democrats will lose control of the Senate in the next 22 months are probably close to a coin flip.\" We don't know if he considered literally everything.)\nWill Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if both the Majority Leader and the President Pro Tempore of the United States Senate are allied with Senate Republicans on 2022-10-31.\nThis question will resolve negatively if either of those officeholders is not allied with the Republican Party.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous if both posts are vacant or if an unusual power-sharing agreement provides for each side to have control for a pre-arranged period.\nBest source for resolution shall be the Senate itself. [This page](https://www.senate.gov/senators/leadership.htm) is regularly updated, and the students answering the [phone](https://www.senate.gov/senators/senators-contact.htm) in the Republican Cloakroom are very helpful.\nAlternatively, [pbs.org](http://pbs.org) and [npr.org](http://npr.org) can suffice. \n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-25T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-11-03T02:22:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 160,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Russia become a democracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6497/when-will-russia-become-a-democracy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will Russia become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n",
- "numforecasts": 25,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2079-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n",
- "numforecasts": 304,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/",
@@ -35709,7 +36649,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
+ "numforecasts": 123,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z",
@@ -35719,6 +36659,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 305,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/",
@@ -35762,33 +36718,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [\"When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3.\nWill transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?\nThis question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page.\nThe code and/or description produced by the transformer model need not be complete or bug-free -- i.e. the authors may use the transformer output as inspiration. The architecture components considered must be described by the paper authors as improving on the state-of-the-art with respect to some benchmark of the authors' choosing. The 5 papers need not be particularly distinct. If they all describe similar architectural innovations, this question will still resolve positive.\nThis question uses Metaculus user [Barnett's](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/) definition of \"Transformer derived\":\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:12:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6555/guantanamo-bay-detention-camp-closure-date/",
@@ -35805,6 +36734,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 156,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will a functional Alcubierre drive-like FTL device be demonstrated before 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6558/working-alcubierre-like-ftl-drive-by-2100/",
@@ -35832,49 +36777,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6127/maximum-number-of-covid-19-cases-by-june-1st/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n",
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:26:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-07T21:26:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.81,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18999999999999995,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Delaying the second dose would allow more people to be vaccinated faster. This could control the pandemic sooner if immunity does not fade too quickly after the first dose. \nThe effectiveness of vaccine over time with/without the second dose is still being studied. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines were designed to be administered in two doses, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. \n[Michael Mina](https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) and [Zeynep Tupfekci](https://twitter.com/zeynep?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor) advocate for investigating the possibility of delaying the second dose in the NYTimes. They describe many important considerations, including one of the key reasons for optimism about [#SecondDoseDelay](https://twitter.com/search?q=%23SecondDoseDelay&src=typeahead_click):\nFor both vaccines, the sharp drop in disease in the vaccinated group started about 10 to 14 days after the first dose, before receiving the second. Moderna reported the initial dose to be 92.1 percent efficacious in preventing Covid-19 starting two weeks after the initial shot, when the immune system effects from the vaccine kick in, before the second injection on the 28th day.\nWill scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?\nQuestion resolves \"Yes\" if, on 2021-12-31, more than 50% of the scientific literature supports the claim that delaying the second dose (booster) of the Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna vaccines beyond their initial schedule probably saves or would have saved lives? \nThe relevant scientific literature is judged to include peer-reviewed studies nominated by Metaculus participants which explicitly compare estimated or actual mortality with longer delays for a second vaccine dose will be considered. Note: this criteria may exclude many editorials or published claims that don't include simulations or empirical data comparing counterfactual mortality with a delayed booster. \nQuestion will resolve \"No\" if more than 50% of studies meeting these criteria claim that a longer delay before the second dose would probably increase mortality.\nQuestion receives mixed resolution if neither the criteria for \"Yes\" or \"No\" are met. This would happen if, for example, most studies meeting the inclusion criteria don't indicate that either the originally scheduled or a delayed 2nd dose is likely to have saved lives overall.\n",
- "numforecasts": 155,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/",
@@ -35961,33 +36863,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n",
- "numforecasts": 1253,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/",
@@ -36047,22 +36922,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/",
@@ -36080,18 +36939,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/",
+ "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
+ "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 115,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -36112,61 +36971,34 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/",
+ "title": "When will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6592/when-will-a-country-reach-escape-velocity/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n",
- "numforecasts": 14,
+ "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 61,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-20T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-03-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2500-01-01T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/) \n---[When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) \n---[Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/) \nMany people believe that current vaccination campaigns will solve the US's Covid problem within the next few months. Others worry that we won't manage to execute them that soon (perhaps in part due to [vaccine hesitancy](https://psyarxiv.com/srv6t/?fbclid=IwAR3NJ0PRuUUNnYD8AGouxNWt1J3qVDg2fL6xKY9xr31pYo9Re_qCPNvDg2s)), or that vaccines won't work as well as expected, or immunity will fade, or that [vaccine-escaping strains will get ahead of boosters](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00075-8/fulltext). San Francisco had previously issued an order [restricting indoor dining in November of 2020](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-10/coronavirus-san-francisco-shutdown-indoor-dining).\nWill San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?\nThis question will resolve positively if such an order is in effect at any time between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31. It will be valid if it is issued due to COVID-19 or any infectious disease.\nThis question will resolve negatively if such an order is issued for non-health reasons, or no health order is in force during the stated period.\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-23T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-20T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6513/sum-of-performance-supercomputers-nov-2022/",
+ "title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n",
+ "numforecasts": 31,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2026-01-02T01:10:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -36186,38 +37018,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n",
- "numforecasts": 213,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/",
@@ -36235,7 +37035,7 @@
}
],
"description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
+ "numforecasts": 127,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z",
@@ -36245,6 +37045,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 213,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/",
@@ -36272,49 +37088,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in May 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6874/initial-jobless-claims-in-may-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n",
- "numforecasts": 15,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-26T22:24:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-27T22:24:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off.\nMoreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). \n[According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. \nFor example, [it has been argued](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks#footnote7_jr7z9s5) that a 12ºC increase in mean global temperature—which is substantially outside the range considered plausible this century—would cause at least one day each year in the territories where half of all people live today to be hot enough to exceed human metabolic limits and cause tissue damage from hyperthermia after a few hours of exposure. \nOne way to reduce global temperatures quickly and cheaply is a form of climate engineering called [Solar Radiation Management (SRM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_radiation_management), which involves [cooling the Earth by reflecting sunlight back into space](http://johnhalstead.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Halstead-Stratospheric-aerosol-injection-research-and-exist.pdf). The most researched form of SRM involves injecting aerosols into the stratosphere. Most of the evidence so far suggests that ideal SRM deployment programmes would reduce overall damages relative to an un-engineered greenhouse world. \nHowever, SRM brings its own risks. Of the currently known potential negative direct effects of SRM, only abrupt termination could plausibly bring about an existential catastrophe. If a very thick stratospheric veil were deployed and SRM was suddenly terminated and not resumed within a buffer period of a few months, then there would be very rapid and damaging warming. [There might also be some reasons](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/unilateralist.pdf) to expect the chance of at least one country to undertake climate engineering to be surprisingly high, especially when the relevant technologies are widespread, and the lack of global coordination permits each country to individually decide for or against the intervention.\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years or less. This question resolves ambiguously if no such global catastrophe occurs. On the other hand...\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to human-made climate change, or the use of geoengineering as a deliberate large-scale intervention in the Earth’s climate system?\nThe question results positively if a human-made climate change or geoengineering catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. This catastrophe must be due to the direct effects of climate change that are generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no global warming but otherwise similar to ours. These include (but are not limited to) floods, extreme weather, the spreading of infectious disease, and the health effects of extreme heat. Finally, the effects due to the effects of the use of geoengineering that has been principally motivated to mitigate climate change risks, also count towards the population decline.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 289,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-06-01T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/",
@@ -36358,6 +37131,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.\nWe ask:\nIn what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?\nResolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 158,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/",
@@ -36374,33 +37163,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 456,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/",
@@ -36434,7 +37196,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n",
- "numforecasts": 110,
+ "numforecasts": 111,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -36519,49 +37281,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n",
- "numforecasts": 125,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 224,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/",
@@ -36578,33 +37297,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. \nThe SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date.\nThe SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30)\nWill Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?\nThis will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end.\nIt shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government.\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will AI progress surprise us?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/",
@@ -36675,33 +37367,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 61,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/",
@@ -36745,33 +37410,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big pre-trained language models gained recognition as a multitask and few-shot learners bringing as a step closer to general artificial intelligence.\nBig pre-trained language models contain a lot of implicit knowledge about the world, however retrieval of that knowledge is not always reliable. These models are also expensive to update with new knowledge, because to do so they would require additional training.\nOne way to address above issue could be augmenting language models with the capability of traditional search engines like Google. An example attempt at this task is the paper [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.08909) utilizing relatively small 330M parameters model.\nThis question asks will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?\nThis question will resolve positive when a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval will be announced and negative if no such model will be publicly known to exists before 2023.\nImportantly, the model must have at least 100B parameters and it must be trained by some means to do external information retrieval as in the REALM paper mentioned above. Just augmenting 100B model with e.g. TF-IDF after per-training will not suffice. The model must be aware of the external information retrieval during the training procedure. The specifics of achieving that goal are not relevant, so any method applied during training will suffice.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-15T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/",
@@ -36815,6 +37453,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 72,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/",
@@ -36842,33 +37507,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5170/will-nord-stream-2-be-completed/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
@@ -36885,6 +37523,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 114,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/",
@@ -36935,17 +37600,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. \nThe office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. \nThe UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" with the large majority being listed as \"remote\".\nWill UC Berkeley Resume In-person classes for Fall 2021?\nThis question resolved positively if on August 25th, 2021 at the [start of undergraduate courses for Fall 2021](https://registrar.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/UCB_AcademicCalendar_2021-22_V2.pdf) at least 80% of classes are listed as being delivered by either \"in-person\", \"flexible\", or \"hybrid\" modes of instruction. The question resolves negatively if by this date, the course catalog lists fewer than 80% of classes as being delivered via these modes. \nIn the event that the course catalog is not published for the Fall 2021 semester, or is published but no longer lists mode of instruction for classes, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIf a new class type is added outside of in-person, flexible, hybrid, and remote, and enough classes fall under this category that it affects the resolution of this question, the admin staff will decide if that new type should be grouped with remote or not. If it cannot be clearly grouped, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
+ "numforecasts": 177,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z",
@@ -36982,87 +37647,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4946/will-antifa-officially-be-labeled-a-terrorist-group-in-the-us-before-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n",
- "numforecasts": 357,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives vote to formally discipline a House Member?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/a-house-divided-against-itself/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n",
- "numforecasts": 13,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1346,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will /r/themotte be banned from Reddit?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4881/when-will-rthemotte-be-banned-from-reddit/",
@@ -37106,22 +37690,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Short fuse: When will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6916/when-will-the-suez-canal-blockage-be-cleared/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[The Suez Canal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) is an artificial sea-level waterway in Egypt, connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea through the Isthmus of Suez; and dividing Africa and Asia. The canal offers watercraft a more direct route between the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans via the Mediterranean and Red seas, thus avoiding the South Atlantic and southern Indian oceans and reducing the journey distance from the Arabian Sea to London, for example, by approximately 8,900 kilometres (5,500 mi). It extends from the northern terminus of Port Said to the southern terminus of Port Tewfik at the city of Suez. Its length is 193.30 km (120.11 mi) including its northern and southern access-channels. In 2012, 17,225 vessels traversed the canal (an average of 47 per day).\nAt 07:40 Eastern European Time on 23 March 2021, the [Ever Given](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given), a Golden-class container ship, one of the largest in the world, was passing through the Suez Canal on its way to Rotterdam from Tanjung Pelepas when it ran aground, turned sideways and blocked the canal, causing the canal to be impassable, and significantly disrupting international shipping.\nAs of 24 March 2021, eight tugboats are working to re-float the vessel in collaboration with diggers removing sand from the side of the canal where the vessel is wedged.\nWhen will the Suez Canal blockage of March 2021 be cleared?\nThis question resolves as the time and date the Suez Canal becomes navigable by commercial shipping vessels, as reported by a major news organization (e.g. AP, Reuters, BBC, CNN, etc.).\nETA (26 March): Ships with a beam of at least 20 meters must be able to pass the canal for this question to resolve positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 210,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-26T11:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/",
@@ -37138,6 +37706,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/",
@@ -37154,33 +37738,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3091/what-will-the-us-market-for-plant-based-meat-be-worth-in-the-year-ending-in-april-2023/",
@@ -37197,6 +37754,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). \nWhen will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?\nResolution\nCompanies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.\nThis question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 89,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/",
@@ -37220,17 +37793,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.6799999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
+ "numforecasts": 94,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z",
@@ -37283,49 +37856,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "In 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6458/will-the-eu-ban-mink-farming-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock, which could lead to a \"[de facto permanent closure and liquidation of the fur industry](https://jv.dk/artikel/minkavlere-ser-masseaflivning-som-lukning-af-erhvervet)\".\nAs of [December 2020](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/sites/eurogroup/files/2020-12/2020_12_joint_position_paper_fur_farms_FINAL.pdf), the virus has been detected in mink on 289 mink farms in Denmark, 70 in the Netherlands, 10 in Sweden, 10 in Greece, 1 in Spain, 1 in Italy, 1 in France, 1 in Lithuania and a still undefined number in Poland.\nFrance has suspended new mink farms and will phase out existing mink farms [no later than 2025](https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/annonces-barbara-pompili-en-faveur-du-bien-etre-faune-sauvage-captive).\nThe Netherlands moved forward its plan to to shut down mink fur farms by 2024, and now is expected to end all mink farming by [March 2021](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/dutch-mink-fur-farms-to-be-permanently-closed/).\nThe Irish government ordered the cull of its mink as a precautionary [measure.In](http://measure.In) 2019, the previous Irish government [pledged](https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/28e8c1-government-approves-phasing-out-of-fur-farming/?referrer=http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/press/pressreleases/2019/june/title,128816,en.html) to deliver a bill banning fur farming. \nHungary also [announced](https://www.agronaplo.hu/hirek/ujabb-fontos-lepes-az-allatok-vedelmeert) a ban on mink and other species farming as a precautionary measure (no mink farming occurs in Hungary presently).\nIn Germany, fur farming will be [phased out in 2022](https://www.hsi.org/news-media/fur-farming-bans/) due to stricter welfare requirements.\nIn January 2021, the Swedish government [announced](https://www.djurensratt.se/blogg/historical-decision-sweden-shuts-down-mink-industry-during-2021) that the mink industry in Sweden will be shut down during 2021 as a consequence of the corona pandemic\n[Fur farming](https://www.furfreealliance.com/fur-bans/) has already been prohibited and/or is presently being phased out in Austria, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Croatia. Legislative proposals to ban fur farming are currently also under consideration, or have been announced, in Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Estonia.\nIn November 2020, a Danish Member of the European Parliament [raised the issue](https://www.facebook.com/FuglsangEP19/posts/853704582105130) of an EU-wide mink cull and the German Minister of Agriculture and former president of the Council, Julia Klöckner, [questioned](https://www.four-paws.org/our-stories/press-releases/eu-agriculture-ministers-discuss-covid-19-and-mink-farms) whether mink farming still has a future. The Austrian Federal Minister of Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection Rudolf Anschober [called](https://www.archyde.com/mink-ireland-plans-emergency-slaughter-resignation-in-denmark/) for an initiative for an EU-wide end of the fur industry for public health and animal welfare reasons.\nIn 2021 will the European Commission suspend all EU mink farming, including breeding, and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2021 the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/), or other credible media, reports that the European Commission has suspended all mink farming, including breeding — and all in-country and cross-border transportation of live mink and their raw pelts, both inside and outside the European Union.\n",
- "numforecasts": 36,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n",
- "numforecasts": 241,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/",
@@ -37343,7 +37873,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Kim Jong-un](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Jong-un), born 8 January 1983, has been Supreme Leader of North Korea since 2011 and Leader of the Workers' Party of Korea since 2012. Kim is the second child of Kim Jong-il (1941–2011), and the grandson of Kim Il-sung, the first leader of North Korea from 1948 to 1994. He is the first North Korean leader to have been born after the country's founding.\nThis question asks: Will he still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?\nResolves positively in the abscence of credible media reports indicating that Kim Jong-un has died, has been deposed, is missing, incapacitated, or imprisoned, has defected to another state, or has otherwise ceased to be the de facto leader of North Korea.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1261,
+ "numforecasts": 1262,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z",
@@ -37439,6 +37969,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/",
@@ -37466,33 +38023,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be launched in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6844/at-least-3-ubi-pilots-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/)\n--- \n[When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/)\n[Universal Basic Income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a [technological unemployment crisis](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU), or could [reform existing social welfare systems](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/23/ssc-gives-a-graduation-speech/). Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.\nUBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. [The State of Alaska](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/13/16997188/alaska-basic-income-permanent-fund-oil-revenue-study) provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by [GiveDirectly](https://www.givedirectly.org/ubi-study/).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuel predicts:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nAt least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent) \n[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.\nWill at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.\nA qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long. \n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-15T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/",
@@ -37579,22 +38109,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 80,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/824/will-a-practical-nuclear-fusion-reactor-first-be-developed-in-china/",
@@ -37713,6 +38227,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 203,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/",
@@ -37729,6 +38270,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 103,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/",
@@ -37793,6 +38350,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.\nSince the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. \nThis question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.\nTo qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-16: the sentence \"The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts\" was changed to \"The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans\". \n",
+ "numforecasts": 232,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will there be at least one billion Americans?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6119/when-will-there-be-at-least-1bn-americans/",
@@ -37836,67 +38409,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset.\nIn Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process.\nWill Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?\nThis question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office).\n",
- "numforecasts": 279,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-03T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-22T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will alien technosignatures be detected before 1 January 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected-before-1-january-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Technosignatures](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nThis question asks: Will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected before 1 January 2050?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nTo resolve positively, before 1 January 2050 a competent and credible authority on astronomy and or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) must announce that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies only if it is made after a year waiting period following the initial announcement of the detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 256,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
+ "numforecasts": 51,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
@@ -37944,7 +38463,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
+ "numforecasts": 147,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
@@ -37954,22 +38473,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:19:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What proportion of the 20 largest Chinese corporations' revenue will be state-owned in 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5110/what-proportion-of-the-20-largest-chinese-corporations-revenue-will-be-state-owned-in-2035/",
@@ -38077,6 +38580,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 249,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/",
@@ -38109,22 +38628,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/",
@@ -38255,20 +38758,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/",
+ "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 195,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.44,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.56,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 97,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?",
@@ -38356,6 +38870,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.\nIn contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.\nQuestion Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:\n1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) \n2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) \n3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) \n4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. \nResolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030.\nSpecifics and Caveats:\n1-- \nMulti-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. \n2-- \nFor text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.\n3-- \nFor image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.\n4-- \nIf [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 98,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
@@ -38447,33 +38977,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.\nWill a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\n",
- "numforecasts": 88,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/",
@@ -38517,22 +39020,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/",
@@ -38630,33 +39117,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 640,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/",
@@ -38706,7 +39166,23 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 478,
+ "numforecasts": 479,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 101,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -38733,7 +39209,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n",
- "numforecasts": 875,
+ "numforecasts": 876,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z",
@@ -38743,22 +39219,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5925/eu-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n",
- "numforecasts": 101,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/",
@@ -38834,49 +39294,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.\nWill Planet Nine be discovered before 2030?\nFor this question to resolve positive, the new Solar System planet must be detected by direct optical observation. The planet should have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-01T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-04-15T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5405/end-of-north-sentinelese-isolation/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/",
@@ -38915,7 +39332,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 154,
+ "numforecasts": 156,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -38957,33 +39374,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.82,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.18000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/",
@@ -39016,22 +39406,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5559/when-will-lyft-be-80-electrified/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-07T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-02T01:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T01:10:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "For the month of March 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/",
@@ -39049,18 +39423,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
+ "title": "When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.\nWe ask:\nIn what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?\nResolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
+ "description": "In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).\nSince beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.\nWhen will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.\nResolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.\nIf this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2032\".\n",
+ "numforecasts": 72,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-09-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-01-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -39150,33 +39524,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact.\nWill the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/",
@@ -39220,22 +39567,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6654/trump-retrospective-job-approval/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 50,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will China achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/491/will-china-achieve-its-paris-climate-agreement-goals/",
@@ -39263,22 +39594,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 438,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/",
@@ -39295,6 +39610,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 438,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
@@ -39322,22 +39653,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/",
@@ -39371,18 +39686,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3380/when-will-at-least-750-companies-pledge-to-maintain-a-supply-chain-consistent-with-the-current-basic-global-animal-partnership-standards-for-broiler-chickens-by-end-of-2030/",
+ "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). \nWhen will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?\nResolution\nCompanies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.\nThis question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
+ "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -39419,7 +39734,7 @@
}
],
"description": "The [major earthquakes](http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10/03/death-toll-in-mexico-earthquake-rises-to-366.html) in Mexico in early September 2017 reminded the United States of its own vulnerability to earthquakes. Nearly all of the West Coast of the United States lies in the zone of [highest seismic hazard](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/hazards/hazmaps/conterminous/2014/images/HazardMap2014_lg.jpg), with other earthquake hotspots in Hawaii, Alaska, South Carolina, the Intermountain West, and the [New Madrid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone) region on the Missouri-Tennessee border. \nThe [San Andreas fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), which runs much of the length of California, is of significant concern due to the concentration of people in vulnerable regions. [2008 estimates](http://www.newsweek.com/earthquake-san-andreas-fault-big-one-los-angeles-california-670303) of the damage caused by \"The Big One,\" with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, reached $200B in damage and 1,800 lives lost. Seismic zones along Utah's Wasatch Front and the New Madrid zone in the southeast would produce similarly catastrophically damaging major quakes. \n23 earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above have hit the United States in the past 200 years. Some of those, like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, caused major loss of life and property. Some, like the [2016 Old Iliamna earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Old_Iliamna_earthquake) in Alaska, caused property damage, but no fatalities. The question is not whether another major earthquake will strike soon, but where and how damaging.\nWill a major United States earthquake strike by end of 2022?\nThis question will resolve as positive if an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale, with an epicenter within the borders of the United States and estimated damage of $10 billion or more, occurs on or before December 31, 2022. Damage estimates need not be completed before the target resolution date.\n",
- "numforecasts": 688,
+ "numforecasts": 689,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z",
@@ -39461,6 +39776,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 71,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/",
@@ -39547,33 +39878,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be more people with HIV/AIDS in 2037 than in 2017?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2713/will-there-be-more-people-with-hivaids-in-2037-than-in-2017/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The human immunodeficiency viruses ([HIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV)) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that causes HIV infection and over time Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ([AIDS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AIDS)). \nAIDS is a condition in humans in which progressive failure of the immune system allows life-threatening opportunistic infections and cancers to thrive. Without treatment, average survival time after infection with HIV is estimated to be 9 to 11 years, depending on the HIV subtype.\nHIV/AIDS has had a large impact on society, both as an illness and as a source of discrimination. The disease also has large economic impacts.[[1](http://data.unaids.org/pub/globalreport/2006/2006_gr_ch04_en.pdf)]\nAccording to [UNAIDS](http://www.unaids.org/en/resources/fact-sheet), in 2017 (the latest data available) 36.9 million people globally were living with HIV, 1.8 million people became newly infected with HIV, and 940,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses in 2017. In 2017, 21.7 million people living with HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy, an increase of 2.3 million since 2016, and up from 8 million in 2010. \nAccording to [Avert.org](https://www.avert.org/who-we-are), a UK-based charity, the vast majority of people living with HIV are located in low-income and middle-income countries, with an estimated 66% living in sub-Saharan Africa.[[2](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] Among this group 19.6 million are living in East and Southern Africa which saw 800,000 new HIV infections in 2017.\nSince the start of the epidemic, an estimated 77.3 million people have become infected with HIV and 35.4 million people have died of AIDS-related illnesses.[[3](https://www.avert.org/global-hiv-and-aids-statistics)] In 2017, 940,000 people died of AIDS-related illnesses. This number has reduced by more than 51% (1.9 million) since the peak in 2004 and 1.4 million in 2010.\nSubstantial progress has been made in devising successful therapies against HIV replication that can provide a sustained control of HIV replication.[[4](https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/immunotherapy-in-hiv-infection-2332-0877.1000102.php?aid=11848)] Among them, immunotherapeutic approaches are one of the exciting areas, with surprising recent progress toward a possible [permanent eradication of the virus in patients](https://futurism.com/the-byte/third-patient-reportedly-cured-hiv-free).\nThis question asks: will the number of people globally living with HIV/AIDS in 2037 be 36.9 million or more, according to the median estimate from UNAIDS?\n",
- "numforecasts": 203,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/",
@@ -39581,17 +39885,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
+ "numforecasts": 178,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
@@ -39601,38 +39905,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 103,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first evidence of extraterrestrial life be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3816/when-will-the-first-evidence-of-extraterrestrial-life-be-discovered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.\nSince the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. \nThis question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.\nTo qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-16: the sentence \"The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts\" was changed to \"The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans\". \n",
- "numforecasts": 232,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/",
@@ -39719,22 +39991,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n",
- "numforecasts": 248,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will there be a city on Earth with a population of over 100 million by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1052/will-there-be-a-city-on-earth-with-a-population-of-over-100-million-by-2100/",
@@ -39789,49 +40045,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6646/sa-israel-to-establish-diplomatic-relations/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.56,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of writing this question, Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have any official diplomatic relations. Moreover, On 15 September 2020, [Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain signed](https://www.reuters.com/article/israel-gulf-usa/in-break-with-past-uae-and-bahrain-forge-ties-with-israel-at-white-house-idUSKBN2660L1) agreements establishing formal ties between the State of Israel and the two gulf countries.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that Israel and Saudi Arabia will establish diplomatic relations this year (70% confident).\nWill Israel and Saudi Arabia establish official diplomatic relations in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Reuters, AP, NPR, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times reports to the effect that this has occurred at some point before the end of 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 97,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.\nIn contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.\nQuestion Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:\n1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) \n2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) \n3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) \n4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. \nResolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030.\nSpecifics and Caveats:\n1-- \nMulti-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. \n2-- \nFor text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.\n3-- \nFor image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.\n4-- \nIf [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/",
@@ -39907,6 +40120,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.16,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.84,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a complete 4 year interval by 2050 in which world output doubles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5406/world-output-doubles-in-4-years-by-2050/",
@@ -39934,22 +40174,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will beef for human consumption, from cattle genetically edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3202/when-will-beef-for-human-consumption-from-cattle-genetically-edited-to-carry-a-copy-of-the-sry-gene-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).\nSince beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.\nWhen will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.\nResolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.\nIf this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2032\".\n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6250/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2022-01-14/",
@@ -39966,22 +40190,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6527/rl-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When, if ever, will 17 year olds vote in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6326/17-year-old-suffrage-in-the-us/",
@@ -40030,22 +40238,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6520/sota-wikitext-103-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 68,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/",
@@ -40089,33 +40281,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1644/will-a-von-neumann-probe-be-launched-before-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nA von Neumann probe is an autonomous spacecraft capable of replicating itself. The concept is named after the 20th century Hungarian-American mathematician and physicist [John von Neumann](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_von_Neumann), who rigorously studied the concept of self-replicating machines that he called \"Universal Assemblers.\" While von Neumann never applied his work to the idea of spacecraft, theoreticians since then have done so.\nIn theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring planetary system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, planets, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other planetary systems. The original parent probe could then pursue its primary purpose within the star system. This mission varies widely depending on the variant of self-replicating starship proposed. \nIf a self-replicating probe finds evidence of primitive life (or even a primitive intelligent culture, analogous to that achieved by humans in the past) it might be programmed to lie dormant, silently observe, attempt to make contact, or even interfere with or guide the evolution of life in some way. \nIt has been [theorized](http://www.rfreitas.com/Astro/ComparisonReproNov1980.htm) that a self-replicating starship utilizing relatively conventional theoretical methods of interstellar travel (i.e., no exotic faster-than-light propulsion, and speeds limited to an \"average cruising speed\" of 0.1c.) could spread a technological presence throughout a galaxy the size of the Milky Way in as little as half a million years, which is close to nothing on cosmological timescales. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWill a self-replicating autonomous spacecraft be dispatched into space by humanity (or by technological intelligence created by humanity) before January 1 2050?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nA spacecraft will count if it meets the criteria (per [Wikipedia's definition of self-replicating machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine#Bootstrapping_Self-Replicating_Factories_in_Space)) of being capable of reproducing itself autonomously using raw materials found in the environment, thus exhibiting self-replication in a way analogous to that found in nature. \nFor positive resolution, the spacecraft must launch into space, but is not required to undergo a replication cycle.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25 (in kinetic energy)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5045/what-will-be-the-largest-cme-during-solar-cycle-25-in-kinetic-energy/",
@@ -40218,6 +40383,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computation and Language e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computation and Language e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 179,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:10:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:10:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/",
@@ -40234,6 +40415,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 176,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/",
@@ -40261,38 +40458,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5889/nlp-e-prints-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computation and Language e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computation and Language e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T16:10:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:10:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2120-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will Croatia adopt the euro?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4587/when-will-croatia-adopt-the-euro/",
@@ -40432,6 +40597,38 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n",
+ "numforecasts": 63,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:24:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-10T22:24:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. \nIn recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the \"[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/).\" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.\nTo add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). \nHow much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were \"very achievable.\"\nWhen will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?\nThis question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 211,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-04-21T22:25:13Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will 4 year old Russian chess prodigy, Misha Osipov, reach master level?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1045/when-will-4-year-old-russian-chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-reach-master-level/",
@@ -40475,6 +40672,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 251,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4544/will-there-be-fewer-kea-parrots-in-2030-than-in-2020/",
@@ -40545,6 +40769,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 149,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/",
@@ -40588,6 +40839,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.67,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 123,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/",
@@ -40636,6 +40914,70 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 303,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 237,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T10:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?\nThe question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 157,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/",
@@ -40653,7 +40995,7 @@
}
],
"description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n",
- "numforecasts": 433,
+ "numforecasts": 436,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z",
@@ -40664,21 +41006,75 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/",
+ "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n",
- "numforecasts": 63,
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:24:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-10T22:24:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 228,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 123,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-02T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-16T07:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/",
@@ -40695,6 +41091,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.74,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.26,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will Metaculus exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/841/will-metaculus-exist-in-2030/",
@@ -40722,6 +41145,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing this question, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the S&P500 modifies its sector definition substantially. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if after such a modification, either:\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of either the IT or Communications sectors by market cap that were previously in either sector are removed\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of of either the IT or Communications sectors that were previously not in either sector are added\n",
+ "numforecasts": 256,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the UK hold its next general election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/",
@@ -40738,6 +41177,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-08T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
@@ -40755,18 +41210,34 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will commercial space launch be priced at less than $500/pound?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/462/when-will-commercial-space-launch-cost-less-then-500pound/",
+ "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. \nIn recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the \"[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/).\" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.\nTo add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). \nHow much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were \"very achievable.\"\nWhen will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?\nThis question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.\n",
- "numforecasts": 211,
+ "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 159,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-04-21T22:25:13Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-11-20T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 80,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -40830,7 +41301,7 @@
}
],
"description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 229,
+ "numforecasts": 230,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -40840,13 +41311,29 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.\nThe UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).\nIf, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?\nJudgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).\nSee also:\n---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 163,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many of the \"priority paths\" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
+ "numforecasts": 34,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-04T23:00:00Z",
@@ -40883,6 +41370,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nIn 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.\nWhen will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 56,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5646/next-minimum-wage-raise/",
@@ -40926,22 +41429,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-29T19:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-23T19:51:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5806/sars-cov-2-vaccine-widely-available-in-the-us/",
@@ -40974,6 +41461,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.54,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.45999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 575,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/",
@@ -41017,6 +41531,65 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.06,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.94,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a \"the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years.\" The research suggests that \"the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.\" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.\nGiven that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:\nWill any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?\nThis question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 865,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-10-13T22:11:35Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-03-23T22:59:59Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.\nWhat will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?\nIf [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 117,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-30T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3863/will-germany-make-use-of-its-emergency-acts-in-light-of-covid-19/",
@@ -41092,6 +41665,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 189,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T22:18:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-12-14T22:18:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Volkswagen Group produce fewer than 22 million electric vehicles by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2665/will-volkswagen-group-produce-fewer-than-22-million-electric-vehicles-by-2030/",
@@ -41119,33 +41708,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) was introduced in 1990 by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/topics/emergency-preparedness-and-response-epr/international-nuclear-radiological-event-scale-ines) (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity. \nThis question asks: Will an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2022 be classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2023, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council?\n",
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6388/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-april/",
@@ -41184,7 +41746,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what longitude will it start in?\nLongitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180°W and 180 representing 180°E. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the longitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the longitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with latitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
+ "numforecasts": 95,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
@@ -41210,33 +41772,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),\nA statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.\nThe New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),\nwidely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.\nWill a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?\nA book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.\nThis question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2030, and negatively otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will the first baby be born away from Earth?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4954/when-will-the-first-baby-be-born-away-from-earth/",
@@ -41312,6 +41847,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 144,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 102,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Elon Musk (attempt to) go to Mars?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1598/will-elon-musk-attempt-to-go-to-mars/",
@@ -41366,6 +41944,60 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 158,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.65,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.35,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 236,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2599/will-any-of-the-20-most-valuable-public-companies-in-the-united-states-as-of-january-2019-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2025/",
@@ -41373,17 +42005,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "As of close of trading on January 28 2019, the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States are as follows.\n(Name, ticker symbol, market cap in USD billions)\n1--Microsoft Corporation MSFT 806.62 \n2--[Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) Inc AMZN 800.88 \n3--Alphabet Inc GOOG / GOOGL 760.23 \n4--Apple Inc AAPL 739.27 \n5--Facebook Inc FB 354.29 \n6--Johnson & Johnson JNJ 345.95 \n7--JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM 345.44 \n8--Exxon Mobil Corp XOM 301.62 \n9--Bank of America Corp BAC 290.79 \n10-Walmart Inc WMT 281.98 \n11-Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRK.B 273.85 \n12-UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH 256.64 \n13-Visa Inc V 238.97 \n14-Wells Fargo & Co (New) WFC 234.51 \n15-Procter & Gamble Company (The) PG 233.95 \n16-Pfizer Inc PFE 228.50 \n17-Verizon Communications Inc VZ 227.55 \n18-AT&T Inc T 223.22 \n19-Chevron Corporation CVX 214.33 \n20-Intel Corporation INTC 214.2 \nNote: Alphabet has three classes of equity securities, of which two are currently admitted to the markets, GOOG and GOOGL. The figure listed above is the combined value of both traded classes of equity securities.\nIf any of these companies were to file for bankruptcy protection, it would be one of the [largest corporate bankruptcies in the history of the United States.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_in_the_United_States#Largest_bankruptcies)\nThis question asks: Before 01 January 2025, will any of the aforementioned companies file for bankruptcy protection?\nFor a positive resolution, one of the companies mentioned in this question body text (or successor companies resulting from either rebranding (i.e. a simple name change), mergers or demergers, as long as the successor company represents at least 50% of the original company by market capitalization at the time it becomes independent, and that is a publicly traded company) must file for bankruptcy protection in the United States of America under either of the following chapters of the United States Bankruptcy Code: [Chapter 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_7,_Title_11,_United_States_Code), [Chapter 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chapter_11,_Title_11,_United_States_Code).\nResolution is by citation of relevant court filing or by credible media report in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 232,
+ "numforecasts": 233,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-02-03T08:00:00Z",
@@ -41393,6 +42025,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2021-06-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 216,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will wildfires destroy a total exceeding 10Mha of global tree cover in any year, by the end of 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3042/will-wildfires-destroy-a-total-exceeding-10mha-of-global-tree-cover-in-any-year-by-the-end-of-2030/",
@@ -41479,6 +42127,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/",
@@ -41511,6 +42175,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5774/net-bids-in-fcc-auction-107/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [C-band](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)) is radio waves of frequencies roughly from 3.7 to 8.0 gigahertz. In recent years, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has moved to clear C-band spectrum for 5G usage, transitioning those airwaves from their current use by communication satellites, to 5G cellular networks [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wireless/fcc-adopts-rules-to-auction-spectrum-for-5g-backs-9-7-billion-in-satellite-payments-idUSKCN20M2L9) [[2]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)#C-Band_Alliance). The FCC will have a [spectrum auction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectrum_auction) scheduled to start on December 8, 2020 (Auction 107), to auction off rights to transmit signals in the 3.7 – 3.98 GHz band. \nSome significant past auctions were \"Auction 73: 700 MHz Band\" in 2008 for a transition from analog TV broadcasting to digital broadcasting, with $19.6 billion in winning bids for 62 megahertz of spectrum, and \"Auction 103: Spectrum Frontiers – Upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz\" in 2020 Q1, with $7.6 billion in net bids for 3400 megahertz of millimeter-wave spectrum. \"Auction 107: 3.7 GHz Service\" will have 280 megahertz of spectrum for auction.\nNote that while some news articles report the net proceeds for a particular auction, this questions asks for the net bids (the statistics have the relation: net proceeds = net bids - incentive payments for existing licensees). The incentive payments for Auction 107 are [up to $15 billion](https://spacenews.com/fcc-sets-december-c-band-auction-offers-up-to-14-7-billion-for-satellite-operators/).\nWhat will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?\nResolution is by an FCC [news release](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-363000A1.pdf) or [public notice](https://www.fcc.gov/auction/103/releases) of the net bids of Auction 107.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 117,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T04:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 227,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/",
@@ -41533,7 +42240,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n",
- "numforecasts": 134,
+ "numforecasts": 135,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -41575,13 +42282,45 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.\nFast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.\nThe question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?\nResolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 82,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-29T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-10-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 164,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6124/astrazenecaoxford-vaccine-us-eua-date/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 218,
+ "numforecasts": 222,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z",
@@ -41634,6 +42373,81 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. \nWhen will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? \nAutopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be \"at fault\" or not (as this may ambiguous.)\nNote: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 246,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-04-12T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-10-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 27,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.33,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 146,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3428/philpapers-survey-mini-series-consciousness-of-future-ai-systems/",
@@ -41747,6 +42561,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.\nLast year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.\n[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .\nAccording to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.\nThe reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.\nFreedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.\nWhat will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 153,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-10-30T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-01T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/",
@@ -41791,31 +42648,68 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/",
+ "title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.67,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.32999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. \nHeavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.\nUnunennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.\nWhen will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?\nResolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nFor example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.\n[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. \nRobert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:\n“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.\" \nPeak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. \nDuring periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). \nWhat will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nQuestion resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:05:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:06:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). \nHow many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 89,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T01:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-02-20T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
@@ -41849,6 +42743,97 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.\nWhile there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.\nBut while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:\nWhen will the world have reached peak Facebook?\nFor the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-10-08T10:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-10-08T10:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3541/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 173,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?\nWhile seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.\nDefine an emigration crisis as:\n---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. \nWhen will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?\nTo operationalize this further, \n--- \nFor something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.\n--- \nIf >50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. \nWe ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.\nOn the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with >50 predictions, is in the past:\nWith 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. \nWith a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.\nWith 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.\nIf the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to >December 31st, 2030.\nThe question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. \nAll times in American Eastern Time. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-27T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-09-21T13:02:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 73,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?\nThis question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).\nIf Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.\nNote that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).\nThis is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 102,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-30T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-11-02T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will humanity (essentially) run out of at least one element currently considered \"under serious threat\" by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1058/will-humanity-essentially-run-out-of-at-least-one-element-currently-considered-under-serious-threat-by-2040/",
@@ -41876,6 +42861,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.\nIn 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be \"very strong\" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. \nIf Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?\nIf no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 33,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will any intelligent living being (human descendants, aliens, etc.) ever listen to the copy of Blind Willie Johnson's \"Dark Was the Night\" on Voyager I's Golden Record?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1480/will-any-intelligent-living-being-human-descendants-aliens-etc-ever-listen-to-the-copy-of-blind-willie-johnsons-dark-was-the-night-on-voyager-is-golden-record/",
@@ -41903,6 +42904,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 67,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
@@ -41957,6 +42974,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 39,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3535/how-many-geoengineering-international-treaties-will-be-listed-on-the-world-legal-information-institutes-database-at-the-end-of-2024/",
@@ -41973,6 +43006,38 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for May 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 177,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-16T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 234,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6018/burger-king-to-cease-using-gestation-stalls/",
@@ -42000,6 +43065,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.14,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.86,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 218,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4456/will-the-united-states-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023/",
@@ -42017,7 +43109,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In May 2020, the Washington Post reported that the Trump Administration was considering conducting the first US nuclear test in decades.\nWashington Post: [Trump administration discussed conducting first U.S. nuclear test in decades](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/trump-administration-discussed-conducting-first-us-nuclear-test-in-decades/2020/05/22/a805c904-9c5b-11ea-b60c-3be060a4f8e1_story.html)\nThe Trump administration has discussed whether to conduct the first U.S. nuclear test explosion since 1992 in a move that would have far-reaching consequences for relations with other nuclear powers and reverse a decades-long moratorium on such actions, said a senior administration official and two former officials familiar with the deliberations.\nThe matter came up at a meeting of senior officials representing the top national security agencies last Friday, following accusations from administration officials that Russia and China are conducting low-yield nuclear tests — an assertion that has not been substantiated by publicly available evidence and that both countries have denied.\nA senior administration official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive nuclear discussions, said that demonstrating to Moscow and Beijing that the United States could “rapid test” could prove useful from a negotiating standpoint as Washington seeks a trilateral deal to regulate the arsenals of the biggest nuclear powers.\nThe meeting did not conclude with any agreement to conduct a test, but a senior administration official said the proposal is “very much an ongoing conversation.” Another person familiar with the meeting, however, said a decision was ultimately made to take other measures in response to threats posed by Russia and China and avoid a resumption of testing.\nThe National Security Council declined to comment.\nThis question asks: After January 1 2020 and before January 1 2023, will the United States conduct a test of a nuclear weapon?\nThis question resolves positively if the US government acknowledges conducting such a test, or if credible media reports (as judged by Metaculus admins) state that such a test has taken place. \nThere is no requirement that the test be considered a success for a positive resolution (i.e. fizzles count), but devices designed as radiological weapons, where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives, do not count. Subcritical nuclear tests are therefore excluded from triggering a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 125,
+ "numforecasts": 126,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-06-19T07:00:00Z",
@@ -42027,6 +43119,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.23,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.77,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \nThis question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n1-- \nComcast\n2-- \nCharter\n3-- \nAT&T\n4-- \nVerizon\n5-- \nCentury Link\n(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 135,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/",
@@ -42124,6 +43243,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 91,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-07-18T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Before the end of 2024 will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3682/before-the-end-of-2024-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-covid-19-more-likely-than-not-originated-from-a-laboratory/",
@@ -42152,20 +43287,58 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/",
+ "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n",
- "numforecasts": 303,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.71,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 49,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.38,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.62,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 301,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "If and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, \nhow much will 1 hour of subjective run time cost?",
@@ -42183,6 +43356,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 65,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/",
@@ -42199,13 +43388,45 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.\nCurrently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).\nOn January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? \nThis question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 69,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 226,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.\nWhat will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?\nThe number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 182,
+ "numforecasts": 184,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z",
@@ -42215,6 +43436,38 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.\nWith much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).\nSometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:\nWhen will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?\nWe want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 119,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-02-21T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-10-15T20:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2250-10-15T20:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 219,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-04T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Is the Collatz Conjecture true?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/",
@@ -42242,6 +43495,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.99,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 251,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/will-the-gop-control-the-senate-in-2023/",
@@ -42259,7 +43539,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n",
- "numforecasts": 365,
+ "numforecasts": 366,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z",
@@ -42270,18 +43550,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will the first human baby from stem cell-derived gametes be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3034/when-will-the-first-human-baby-from-stem-cell-derived-gametes-be-born/",
+ "title": "When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
+ "description": "IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.\n[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.\nWhen will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?\nResolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 60,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-08-19T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-02T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T15:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T15:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -42317,22 +43597,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Maximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6666/maximum-price-of-bitcoin-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n",
- "numforecasts": 237,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T10:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "In 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3019/in-2029-how-many-small-firearms-per-capita-will-there-be-in-the-usa-according-to-the-small-arms-survey/",
@@ -42349,6 +43613,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 67,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 17,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/",
@@ -42356,17 +43663,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.9,
+ "probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.09999999999999998,
+ "probability": 0.10999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 277,
+ "numforecasts": 280,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z",
@@ -42376,6 +43683,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.52,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.48,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will functional respirocytes be used successfully in any mammal before 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1653/will-functional-respirocytes-be-used-successfully-in-any-mammal-before-2035/",
@@ -42666,6 +44000,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 49,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/",
@@ -42682,6 +44043,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nThis question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 122,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/",
@@ -42709,6 +44086,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 108,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/",
@@ -42763,6 +44156,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.\nReduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. \nWhat will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?\nResolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 52,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/",
@@ -42833,6 +44242,65 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nWhen will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-13T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T02:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.2,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\nWill the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?\nThis will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 165,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-06-27T10:12:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:30:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). \nResearch suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). \nHowever, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). \nThe limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. \nHowever, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. \nPositive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 41,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-24T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first human be born on another world?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/",
@@ -42849,6 +44317,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 42,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 26,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will any person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or emulated before 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3330/will-any-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-emulated-before-2200/",
@@ -42893,7 +44404,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[A referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom took place on 18 September 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) The referendum question, which voters answered with \"Yes\" or \"No\", was \"Should Scotland be an independent country?\"\nThe \"No\" side won, with 2,001,926 (55.3%) voting against independence and 1,617,989 (44.7%) voting in favour. The turnout of 84.6% was the highest recorded for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the introduction of universal suffrage. \nSince 2014, the [United Kingdom has voted to leave the European Union.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum) On June 23 2016, 17,410,742 (51.89%) voters answered the question \"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?\" with \"Leave,\" and 16,141,241 (48.11%) voters answered with \"Remain.\" The \"Leave\" side thus won, having accrued more individual votes than any political party or referendum side in British political history.\nHowever, voters in Scotland did not, in aggregate, support leaving the EU. In fact, Scotland was the most pro-remain region of the UK with [62% of Scottish voters opting for \"Remain.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum#Regional_count_results) (Gibraltar had a higher Remain vote share, but was counted as part of South West England.) [You can see a map of the results here.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d5/United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg/871px-United_Kingdom_EU_referendum_2016_area_results.svg.png)\nThe fact that voters in Scotland are widely opposed to leaving the EU, and the fact that broader Scottish nationalist sentiment has not significantly waned since the 2014 referendum, has led to speculation that Scotland may once again attempt to leave the United Kingdom in the near future. \nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, will Scotland cease to be a part of the United Kingdom?\nFor this question to resolve positively, there must continuously be a geopolitical entity known as the United Kingdom until at least such point that another geopolitical entity known as Scotland is declared formally by its de facto Head of Government to be legally independent of the United Kingdom, and that state of independence must arise before 1 January 2025.\nIf, for example, there is a vote to become independent that is held before that date, but (if answered in the affirmative) it is not actually implemented until 1 January 2025 or later, this question shall resolve negatively. That is, independence itself must actually happen before that date, not just a vote to become independent.\nIn the case of a dispute as to the status of Scotland, the legal independence of Scotland must be recognized by either the Head of Government or Head of State of the United Kingdom, or by at least 50% of United Nations Member States.\nIn the event that a referendum is called to determine the outcome of this matter before 1 January 2025, this question shall be closed 10 days before the vote is held, but shall not resolve until either a positive or negative resolution results.\nIn the case that the geopolitical entities known as the United Kingdom or Scotland cease to exist at any time before Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 649,
+ "numforecasts": 651,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
@@ -42936,7 +44447,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
+ "numforecasts": 49,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -42946,6 +44457,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 153,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 98,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Substack be valued at 1B+ before 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6421/substack-to-become-unicorn/",
@@ -43017,18 +44571,34 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will Xi Jinping leave power in China?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/955/when-will-xi-jinping-leave-power-in-china/",
+ "title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?\nThe question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
+ "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757\nIf the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 31,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2045-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) \n[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)\nWhen will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?\nResolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 121,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-02-03T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -43048,6 +44618,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 21,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3344/what-the-percentage-of-egg-laying-hens-will-be-cage-free-in-the-us-in-june-2025/",
@@ -43091,6 +44677,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 570,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. \nIn this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:\nAverage weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. \nFor historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).\nResolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.\nThis question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 128,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/",
@@ -43124,7 +44753,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n",
- "numforecasts": 235,
+ "numforecasts": 237,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z",
@@ -43134,6 +44763,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. \nOn 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.\nOn 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.\nIndia plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.\nThat’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.\nPart of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:\nWhen will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?\nFor the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 174,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5901/reinforcement-learning-2020-12-14-2021-06-14/",
@@ -43166,6 +44811,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 127,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/",
@@ -43209,6 +44870,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.22,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.78,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 18,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3701/what-will-the-maximum-increase-in-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-be-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period-in-the-2020-to-2023-period/",
@@ -43284,6 +44988,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.45,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.55,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 46,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. \nIn 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.\n[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).\nThis question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.\nAs reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? \nLinear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 373,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-08-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-07-18T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4596/what-will-the-percentage-difference-between-full-time-tenure-track-and-non-tenure-track-employment-in-us-baccalaureate-institutions-be-in-the-2020-2021-school-year/",
@@ -43301,18 +45048,45 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/",
+ "title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.38,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.62,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:51:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-26T22:51:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).\nOver the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.\nHow many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?\nResolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-21T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -43349,7 +45123,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 157,
+ "numforecasts": 158,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -43359,33 +45133,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) \nWill ≥8% of adults in the U.S. self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before Jan 1st, 2036, in a major poll of a representative cross section of U.S. adults?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The source used for the purpose of this question is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult other polls if i) there is especially strong evidence that respondents are a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 4,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
- "numforecasts": 228,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2034-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/",
@@ -43393,17 +45140,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed.\nWill Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 193,
+ "numforecasts": 195,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -43473,7 +45220,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n",
- "numforecasts": 225,
+ "numforecasts": 230,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -43483,6 +45230,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 181,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/",
@@ -43499,33 +45262,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.\nThe World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). \nWill the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n---A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.) \n---As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the \"WSOP 2021 Main Event\" on [WSOP.com website](https://wsop.com/). \n---The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants). \nThis question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.\nNote that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated \"Main Event\" is played live.\n",
- "numforecasts": 123,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-02T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-16T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6154/sota-one-billion-words-2022-01-14/",
@@ -43542,6 +45278,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.66,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 37,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6252/object-detection-index-2026-12-14/",
@@ -43601,6 +45364,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.98,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 142,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-private-fusion-company-first-report-a-yearly-profit/",
@@ -43617,6 +45407,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 109,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/",
@@ -43660,6 +45466,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWhat is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. \nA single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\nIn case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nThis question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-09T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-07-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2027-02-20T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a 7.0 or larger earthquake either somewhere under or within 81 Kilometres the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6318/70-earthquake-east-mediterranean-in-2021/",
@@ -43737,17 +45559,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.37,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.64,
+ "probability": 0.63,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021), where Dylan Matthews suggests a prediction of 65% here.\nAs Donald Trump leaves the presidency, there are open questions about his legal vulnerabilities and those of his family. There have been several issues raised that could, in principle, lead to members of the Trump family being charge with crimes.\nA key issue here is that, as president, Donald Trump only has the power pardon individuals for federal crimes and so states could still indict a Trump family member.\nHere are some articles describing these issues:\n---[Trump’s Family Pardon Plan Might Make Him a Bigger Criminal Target](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/donald-trump-family-pardon-plan-ivanka-don-jr.html) \n---[The Criminal Investigation Trump Can’t Pardon His Way Out of Is “Significantly Escalating”](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/12/donald-trump-cy-vance-criminal-investigation) \n---[Could Trump pardon family members if they haven't been charged with crimes?](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/could-trump-pardon-family-members-if-they-haven-t-been-n1249707) \nWill none of Trump's immediate family be indicted by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve negative in the event of the production of a publicly available court filing or indictment document detailing a specific indictment of one of the Trump family members described below. If the resolution date of the question arrives before the public availability of such a document then the question resolves positive. Any Indictment, whether federal or state-level, will qualify.\nThis question will not consider reports of a sealed or otherwise non-public indictment to be meaningful. This question will also disregard the results of the case and only considers that a member of the family is charged for a crime.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following:\n---Donald Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Eric Trump \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
+ "numforecasts": 182,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
@@ -43789,6 +45611,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the commercial real estate vacancy rate be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4720/what-will-the-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-rate-be-in-q1-of-2021-in-the-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May.\nAs of mid-May, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. \nLast month the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a recent [National Association of Realtors survey](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q1 of 2021, in the US? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 184,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-29T21:19:40Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6769/cumulative-two-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/",
@@ -43945,6 +45783,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.\nAn [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. \nThe admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.\nThe AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 77,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/",
@@ -43961,33 +45815,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.74,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.26,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year.\nSince 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932.\nWill the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?\nThis resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press.\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-12-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/",
@@ -44080,7 +45907,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 62,
+ "numforecasts": 63,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z",
@@ -44133,22 +45960,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5935/it-and-comms-weighting-in-sp500-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing this question, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the S&P500 modifies its sector definition substantially. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if after such a modification, either:\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of either the IT or Communications sectors by market cap that were previously in either sector are removed\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of of either the IT or Communications sectors that were previously not in either sector are added\n",
- "numforecasts": 256,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6027/money-moved-by-animal-charity-evaluators/",
@@ -44165,6 +45976,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: \nGovernments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.\nThe annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.\nAccording to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:\n---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \nHow much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are <25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.\nData\nWorld Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 105,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T02:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 1/1/2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6479/adversarial-use-of-consumer-genomics-by-2030/",
@@ -44327,7 +46154,7 @@
}
],
"description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 162,
+ "numforecasts": 164,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z",
@@ -44354,7 +46181,7 @@
}
],
"description": "In 2006 [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) was imprisoned for 12 years for his part in the [Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal). \nSince then, there have been very few high profile convictions of corporate bad-actors. (Much ink was spilled over the lack of convictions of bankers during for the [2007-2008 financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008))\nThere have been prison terms for some more junior employees. [Tom Hayes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Hayes_(trader)) was imprisoned for his part of the [LIBOR fixing scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libor_scandal) although generally executives have escaped sanctions:\nThere are currently outstanding warrants for Wirecard executives, and a former [VW CEO is faces charges of fraud in court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal#Charges_against_Volkswagen_engineering/management). (His imprisonment would result in this question resolving positive)\nWill any executives be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?\nIf any senior executive (current or former) is convicted of crimes relating to actions taken in a corporate capacity (ie ignoring crimes committed which are unrelated to their companies and crimes committed for their own benefit at the expense of their employer (eg insider trading))\nSenior executives are those executives and directors who are named on official filings to their respective stock exchanges.\nThey need to be an executive for a listed company in a major index\n---S&P500 \n---FTSE100 \n---DAX30 \n---CAC40 \n---FTSE MIB \n---Nikkei 225 \nTheir imprisonment must start before 2026\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
+ "numforecasts": 49,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z",
@@ -44364,22 +46191,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6494/when-will-the-r-hypothesis-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-08T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2059-12-31T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/",
@@ -44423,6 +46234,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).\nHowever, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).\nSome futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.\nThis question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?\nThis question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.\nThe resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.\n\"Humanity\" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.\nRelated Questions:\n---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "6999-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Do the Others ever reach King's Landing? (According to A Song of Ice and Fire – the books, not the show)",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/624/do-the-others-ever-reach-kings-landing/",
@@ -44450,38 +46277,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:55:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T22:55:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the first cloned human be born?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1537/when-will-the-first-cloned-human-be-born/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n",
- "numforecasts": 159,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-11-20T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the world's richest person in 2033 have a net worth greater than that of John D. Rockefeller in 1913?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/899/will-the-worlds-richest-person-in-2033-have-a-net-worth-greater-than-that-of-john-d-rockefeller-in-1913/",
@@ -44660,6 +46455,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 55,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/",
@@ -44778,22 +46589,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.\nThe UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).\nIf, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?\nJudgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).\nSee also:\n---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4036/what-will-chinas-unemployment-rate-be-for-q1-2021/",
@@ -44939,22 +46734,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3743/when-will-the-global-annual-mean-surface-air-temperature-moving-average-first-exceed-13c-relative-to-the-1951-1980-base-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nIn 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.\nWhen will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will the Chinese state have collected 1 billion unique genomes from their population?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4676/when-will-the-chinese-state-have-collected-1-billion-unique-genomes-from-their-population/",
@@ -44988,7 +46767,7 @@
}
],
"description": "According to [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/), as of 2018 the gross income for a US household at the 80th percentile is $127,144.40 The gross income for a US household at the 20th percentile is $24,913.40.\nTherefore, the gross income of a household at the 80th percentile is 5.10345 times the gross income of a household at the 20th percentile.\nAt any point before 01 January 2025, will the gross income of a US household at the 80th percentile be more than 6.12414 times that of a US household at the 20th percentile; or, in other words, will this specific measurement of household income inequality increase by at least 20%?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to the data released by [the U.S. census bureau](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/news/data-releases.html) (which is the same data used by [DQYDJ](https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/)) or any other source of economic data listed in the [prediction resources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/) if the U.S. census bureau no longer publishes the relevant data.\n",
- "numforecasts": 221,
+ "numforecasts": 222,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z",
@@ -45014,33 +46793,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n",
- "numforecasts": 568,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T21:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T20:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will an oracle superintelligence be developed before a general superintelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/",
@@ -45143,6 +46895,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 72,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2030, will commercial passengers routinely fly in pilotless planes?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3645/longbets-series-by-2030-will-commercial-passengers-routinely-fly-in-pilotless-planes/",
@@ -45170,33 +46949,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "We are all aware that, unfortunately, that there is a fairly strict upper limit on the lifespace of humans. In particular [this article](http://futurism.com/immortality-researchers-find-that-human-lifespan-has-a-max-limit/) reports research suggesting a \"the maximum human lifespan at an average of 115 years, with an absolute limit of 125 years.\" The research suggests that \"the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.\" The maximum documented lifespan in history belongs to Jeanne Clement, a French woman who died at the age of 122 in 1997.\nGiven that this previous record is close to the maximum, and may be an outlier, it may or may not be surpassed in the near future. This suggests the question:\nWill any of the [current top 30 of oldest living persons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people) as of Oct. 11, 2016 reach the age of 120?\nThis question resolves positively if one (or more) person of verified age in the current Wikipedia list celebrates his or her 120th birthday before or on the 23rd of March 2024. (The earliest resolution would be the birthday of Mrs Emma Morano, from Italy, on the 29th of November 2019.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 865,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-10-13T22:11:35Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-03-23T22:59:59Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or a similar one) be used to factor one of the RSA numbers for the first time?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3684/when-will-a-quantum-computer-running-shors-algorithm-or-a-similar-one-be-used-to-factor-one-of-the-rsa-numbers-for-the-first-time/",
@@ -45214,18 +46966,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/",
+ "title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.\nWhat will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?\nIf [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
+ "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 149,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -45380,7 +47132,7 @@
}
],
"description": "Individual death has long been attributed a 100% long-term probability. But for just as long, there have been desires, schemes, and claims of ways to prolong life indefinitely. In moderns times, three examples include anti-aging research (the ultimate version of which would be personal immortality), digital mind-upload, and cryonics. The latter is the subject of this question.\nThe basic idea is simple: upon bodily death, preserve as much structure (especially in the brain) as possible via immediate freezing, and maintain this until medical technology had advanced to the degree that the individual can be fully reconstructed – memories, personality and all – using this preserved structure. (For an entertaining long read check out [this Wait-but-why piece](http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html).)\nThe ability to quickly freeze tissue in a structure-preserving way has steadily improved; an [existing question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/437/when-will-the-large-brain-preservation-prize-be-awarded-by-the-brain-preservation-foundation/) regarding the \"large brain preservation prize\" discusses some of the advances. Many questions remain however, including: Is it even in principle possible to reconstruct an individual human mind out of a frozen brain? If so, how much accuracy in preservation is necessary? Do current techniques have the requisite accuracy? How advanced will the reconstruction technology be, and when would/might that exist? etc., etc.\nLet's assume that an individual as of the reading of the question signs up with one of the top three (by number of currently preserved individuals). \nWhat is the probability that the individual will \"wake up\" in essentially the same or better form than they died? \nWe'll consider success if the revived individual has full mental faculties, an essentially complete set of memories of their former life, and a personality that is at least difficult for them or others to discern from the original. We'll assume for these purposes that the individual's last heartbeat (at least for some time) occurs in a hospital or similar setting where the body can be immediately cooled and moved (if not there already) to a facility for cryonic preservation, and that the individual dies with a relatively healthy brain intact.\nNote: like a few other Metaculus questions, we don't expect this to actually resolve. Rather it is a \"headline\" question that could fold in the results of others. Suggestions for shorter-term, resolvable questions that would bear upon the probabilities of this one are invited in the comments below.\n",
- "numforecasts": 585,
+ "numforecasts": 586,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2017-03-29T20:50:00Z",
@@ -45406,22 +47158,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5353/correct-state-of-ai-report-2020-predictions/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-10T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T21:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/",
@@ -45632,20 +47368,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5951/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/",
+ "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n",
- "numforecasts": 189,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.69,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 226,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-15T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T22:18:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-14T22:18:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?",
@@ -45663,6 +47410,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L3 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L3 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L3 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 181,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the \"red button\" be pressed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5311/lesswrong-red-button-pressed-on-petrov-day/",
@@ -45722,6 +47485,65 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.71,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 91,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 59,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-02-05T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T09:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will The Boring Company tunnel faster than a snail?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4692/when-will-the-boring-company-tunnel-faster-than-a-snail/",
@@ -45738,6 +47560,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 24,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-23T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/",
@@ -45782,45 +47620,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n",
- "numforecasts": 144,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/",
+ "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n",
- "numforecasts": 102,
+ "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-30T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -45894,13 +47705,29 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy. \nEurope is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390).\nGrowth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020. \nProjections have [historically underestimated](http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur) estimate actual growth, however. The prices of PV energy continues to fall (see related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/321/1-dollarwatt-solar-energy-by-2020/)) and projection methodologies may in some cases fail to capture factors such as transformative technologies that may further drive PV growth.\nHow much global solar photovoltaic electricity-generating capacity, in gigawatts, will be in operation by 2020?\nThe definitive source for question resolution will be the annual \"[Trends](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3)\" report from the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org)'s [Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme](https://www.iea.org/tcp/renewables/pvps/). Because the report covers trends up to the year previous, resolution will be dependent on the report to be issued in late 2021. If this report should cease publication or substantially change its methodology, question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 196,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-03-27T16:54:11Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n",
- "numforecasts": 48,
+ "numforecasts": 55,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2021-03-15T23:00:00Z",
@@ -45980,6 +47807,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 131,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How many hours will the average American employee work per week in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3054/how-many-hours-will-the-average-american-employee-work-per-week-in-2030/",
@@ -45996,6 +47850,38 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIf the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?\nThis resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.\nSee also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 71,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\nAdditional details: \n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 111,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-05-12T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-04-25T04:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will Robert Caro's fifth and final volume of his Lyndon Johnson biography be published during his lifetime?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3244/will-robert-caros-fifth-and-final-volume-of-his-lyndon-johnson-biography-be-published-during-his-lifetime/",
@@ -46023,6 +47909,38 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.\nThe [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.\nIn 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into \"intrinsic rewards\" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with \"intrinsic rewards\" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without \"intrinsic rewards\" only explored 2 out of 24.\nIn Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [\"artificial curiosity\"](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). \nWe ask:\nWhen will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?\nAs of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) & [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). \nResolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 158,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2018-08-16T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. \nWhat global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?\nWe'll add these all up to ask:\nWhat percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? \nResolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 179,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-10-20T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-03-01T09:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-03-01T09:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "If cryonics is at some point offered for free, what percentage of Americans will be signed up within 10 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4052/if-cryonics-is-at-some-point-offered-for-free-what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-signed-up-within-10-years/",
@@ -46126,7 +48044,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 217,
+ "numforecasts": 218,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z",
@@ -46152,6 +48070,108 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 200,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 70,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.39,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.61,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 90,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-11-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-04-16T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.58,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. \nHow many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 108,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-18T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T22:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Are we in a simulated reality? Part II",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/280/are-we-in-a-simulated-reality-part-ii/",
@@ -46206,6 +48226,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 51,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the exponent of the fastest known polynomial-time matrix multiplication algorithm in 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3343/what-will-be-the-exponent-of-the-fastest-known-polynomial-time-matrix-multiplication-algorithm-in-2029/",
@@ -46222,6 +48258,81 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.07,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 124,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 122,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 43,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).\nTo shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:\nWhat will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?\nResolution\n--- \nThis question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.\n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n--- \nTo be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 87,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2053-01-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will Solar Cycle 25 begin?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5042/when-will-solar-cycle-25-begin/",
@@ -46238,6 +48349,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.72,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.28,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 35,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5804/first-clone-of-a-prominent-historical-figure/",
@@ -46281,6 +48419,65 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.23,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.77,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 261,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5225/relaxation-of-maximum-group-size-in-england/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. [This government webpage](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing#seeing-friends-and-family) gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.\nThe Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for [\"any longer than we have to\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54102872). But how long will this be?\nThat is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?\nThe question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.\nThe question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 323,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. \n[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated Questions:\n[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 60,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/",
@@ -46308,6 +48505,65 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 204,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2040-12-31T23:43:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T23:44:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3426/philpapers-survey-mini-series-the-many-worlds-interpretation-of-quantum-mechanics/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nBackground\nThe many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"many-worlds\" on the \"Quantum mechanics\" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-24T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-08-01T02:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-08-01T02:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5380/will-john-mcafee-go-to-prison/",
@@ -46351,6 +48607,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.37,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.63,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 275,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/",
@@ -46378,6 +48661,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.88,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 223,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the seasonally adjusted atmospheric concentration of C02 be lower than the same time in the previous year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4225/when-will-the-seasonally-adjusted-atmospheric-concentration-of-c02-be-lower-than-the-same-time-in-the-previous-year/",
@@ -46394,6 +48704,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).\nA commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).\nWhen will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"available from a grocery store\" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 126,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-06-01T04:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.77,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 107,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T07:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/",
@@ -46421,6 +48774,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 163,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first human head transplant occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5211/first-human-head-transplant-when/",
@@ -46464,6 +48860,156 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 234,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 351,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 255,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-10-31T06:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 38,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 158,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-11-16T03:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nIf GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. \nA similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-06T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-02-12T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5300/revival-chance-at-alcor-vs-cryonics-institute/",
@@ -46507,6 +49053,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3435/philpapers-survey-mini-series-immortality-would-philosophers-choose-it/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on choosing immortality?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on:\nImmortality would you choose it?\nThis question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 109,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/",
@@ -46534,6 +49096,60 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 347,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.97,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6300/reinforcement-learning-2021-01-14-2027-01-01/",
@@ -46551,56 +49167,72 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "At the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators recommend a charity working on reducing wild animal suffering as a top charity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2783/at-the-end-of-2023-will-animal-charity-evaluators-recommend-a-charity-working-on-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-as-a-top-charity/",
+ "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?\nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. \nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 96,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
+ "probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "probability": 0.25,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) is an organisation that reviews animal welfare charities in order to recommend the most cost-effective organisations to donate to. Charities that they evaluate as having a good track record, room for more funding, and high estimated cost-effectiveness are put on a shortlist of [top charities](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/donation-advice/recommended-charities/), of which there are currently four.\nOne of the cause areas that they evaluate organisations working in and consider to be high-priority is [reducing wild animal suffering](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/advocacy-interventions/prioritizing-causes/causes-we-consider/#reducing-wild-animal-suffering). ACE [currently lists](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/charity-reviews/all-charity-reviews/#filter=.wild-animal-suffering) two charities that they have considered and that are working this cause area; of these, Animal Ethics was considered a standout charity from 2015-2017, but none have ever been top charities.\nAt the end of 2023, will Animal Charity Evaluators list an organisation with a review status of \"Top Charity\" and a type of work of \"Reducing Wild Animal Suffering\"?\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
+ "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 136,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-06T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/",
+ "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.65,
+ "probability": 0.66,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.35,
+ "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices [(World Bank, 2017)](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/25141/9781464809613.pdf). In 2015, 9.98% of the World's population or 734.5 million people lived in extreme poverty [(World Bank, 2019)](http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/344401569259571927/pdf/September-2019-PovcalNet-Update-Whats-New.pdf).\nAccording to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nWill we see fewer than 734.5M people in extreme poverty, worldwide in the year 2020, according to World Bank estimates?\nThis question resolves positively if the first estimates of the number in extreme poverty in the year 2020, published by the World Bank, is below 734.5M. In case the numbers are not published by the World Bank before the end of 2025, figures from other data sources, such as those listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources), may be consulted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 236,
+ "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 179,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T08:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -46749,6 +49381,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), \nOne could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.\nFurthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).\nIf Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. \nFor example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?\nThe relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.\nReal world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.\nETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/",
@@ -46781,6 +49429,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).\nFrom its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. \nThis question asks in which month will there first be >=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).\nShould the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.\nIf the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.\nIf this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2035\"\n",
+ "numforecasts": 109,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-12T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the incarceration rate in the US drop below 500 per 100,000 by 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1534/will-the-incarceration-rate-in-the-us-drop-below-500-per-100000-by-2022/",
@@ -46836,20 +49500,31 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/",
+ "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2021-06-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 216,
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.15,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 167,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T21:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will JavaScript be the most used programming language in the 2030 Stack Overflow Developer Survey?",
@@ -46878,6 +49553,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 240,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will a human chess player reach a FIDE rating of 2900?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4209/when-will-a-human-chess-player-reach-a-fide-rating-of-2900/",
@@ -46980,6 +49682,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-26T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first genome-wide association study of more than 1 million African Americans be published?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4459/when-will-the-first-genome-wide-association-study-of-more-than-1-million-african-americans-be-published/",
@@ -47012,6 +49730,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.21,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.79,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n",
+ "numforecasts": 75,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the 10,000th human reach space?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/",
@@ -47055,6 +49800,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 106,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4118/will-there-be-a-positive-transition-to-a-world-with-radically-smarter-than-human-artificial-intelligence/",
@@ -47125,6 +49886,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 40,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T20:16:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/",
@@ -47173,22 +49961,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/",
@@ -47292,48 +50064,21 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5774/net-bids-in-fcc-auction-107/",
+ "title": "How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "The [C-band](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)) is radio waves of frequencies roughly from 3.7 to 8.0 gigahertz. In recent years, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has moved to clear C-band spectrum for 5G usage, transitioning those airwaves from their current use by communication satellites, to 5G cellular networks [[1]](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-wireless/fcc-adopts-rules-to-auction-spectrum-for-5g-backs-9-7-billion-in-satellite-payments-idUSKCN20M2L9) [[2]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C_band_(IEEE)#C-Band_Alliance). The FCC will have a [spectrum auction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spectrum_auction) scheduled to start on December 8, 2020 (Auction 107), to auction off rights to transmit signals in the 3.7 – 3.98 GHz band. \nSome significant past auctions were \"Auction 73: 700 MHz Band\" in 2008 for a transition from analog TV broadcasting to digital broadcasting, with $19.6 billion in winning bids for 62 megahertz of spectrum, and \"Auction 103: Spectrum Frontiers – Upper 37 GHz, 39 GHz, and 47 GHz\" in 2020 Q1, with $7.6 billion in net bids for 3400 megahertz of millimeter-wave spectrum. \"Auction 107: 3.7 GHz Service\" will have 280 megahertz of spectrum for auction.\nNote that while some news articles report the net proceeds for a particular auction, this questions asks for the net bids (the statistics have the relation: net proceeds = net bids - incentive payments for existing licensees). The incentive payments for Auction 107 are [up to $15 billion](https://spacenews.com/fcc-sets-december-c-band-auction-offers-up-to-14-7-billion-for-satellite-operators/).\nWhat will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?\nResolution is by an FCC [news release](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-363000A1.pdf) or [public notice](https://www.fcc.gov/auction/103/releases) of the net bids of Auction 107.\n",
- "numforecasts": 117,
+ "description": "[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.\nFurthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.\nThere are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. \nThough direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.\n\nHow far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?\n\n---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 30,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-15T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T04:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-04-27T21:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:59:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of mid-2018, it's been almost 17 years since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that destroyed the Twin Towers in New York and damaged the Pentagon. Nearly 3,000 people died in the attack. Since that time, fortunately, there hasn't been another attack on the U.S. homeland that's anywhere close to the size and scale of 9/11.\nHowever, we cannot rest easy.\nAs The Atlantic [reported](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/09/are-we-any-safer/492761/) in September 2016:\nAre we safer? Yes, we’re safer from the kind of orchestrated attack that shocked us on that September morning. It’s harder for terrorists to get into the country, and harder for them to pull off something spectacular if they do. But we have not plugged some of the most threatening security gaps. \nA special report compiled by the Heritage Foundation examined [60 terrorist plots](https://www.heritage.org/terrorism/report/60-terrorist-plots-911-continued-lessons-domestic-counterterrorism) that have unfolded since 9/11.\nHow long can our luck – and the good work of law enforcement – hold out?\nCan we prevent a US terrorist attack equal to (or worse than) 9/11 in terms of lives lost, at least through the year 2030? \nFor these purposes, a terrorist attack will point to something purposeful but not directly implemented by a nation-state's government and military.\n",
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will it turn out that the Keto diet is both safe and has health benefits for some identified and significant population of people?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3739/will-it-turn-out-that-the-keto-diet-is-both-safe-and-has-health-benefits-for-some-identified-and-significant-population-of-people/",
@@ -47361,22 +50106,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will the Flamanville EPR be finished?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2589/when-will-the-flamanville-epr-be-finished/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.\nFast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.\nThe question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?\nResolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).\n",
- "numforecasts": 82,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Iowa host another \"first in the nation\" Democratic caucus by the end of 2028?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/will-iowa-host-another-first-in-the-nation-democratic-caucus-by-the-end-of-2028/",
@@ -47431,29 +50160,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv from 2021 through 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5899/ai-safety--other-2021-through-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 164,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
+ "numforecasts": 43,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z",
@@ -47496,34 +50209,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will the next fully autonomous car fatality occur?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/",
+ "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. \nWhen will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? \nAutopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be \"at fault\" or not (as this may ambiguous.)\nNote: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.\n",
- "numforecasts": 246,
+ "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 89,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-04-12T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n",
- "numforecasts": 27,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
@@ -47597,6 +50294,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.\n[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.\nHow many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 161,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-27T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be a 'World War Three' before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/",
@@ -47604,17 +50317,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in the Soviet Union and China. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only use of nuclear weapons in war.\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide large-scale military conflict subsequent to World War I and World War II. The term has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both the level of its widespread scope and of its overall destructive impact.\nAs of January 2019, World War III does not appear to have started - but there have been [a number of historical close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed possible catalysts of such a conflict.\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, \"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones\". It can be inferred here that Einstein assumed that World War III would either exterminate, or else nearly exterminate the human race, presumably due to nuclear warfare.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2050, will it be recognized that a 'hot' World War III has begun?\nThis question resolves positively if all of the following circumstances arise:\n1-- \nA military conflict begins involving countries representing in totality at least 30% of world GDP or 50% of world population in any year in which the conflict is ongoing.\n2-- \nAt least 10 million people are killed in the conflict.\n(Edit 1/16/19 to remove third \"described as WWIII\" criterion.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 600,
+ "numforecasts": 601,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-01-15T00:00:00Z",
@@ -47624,49 +50337,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.33,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6699999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n",
- "numforecasts": 146,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/685/will-the-us-get-rid-of-the-penny-by-2025/",
@@ -47684,7 +50354,7 @@
}
],
"description": "If you haven’t seen CGP Grey’s [\"Death to Pennies\"](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5UT04p5f7U) video, it’s worth the watch. Funny, and mildly enraging. It raises a great question that deserves answering: Why DOES the U.S. Mint continue to produce pennies, year after year?\nAfter all, it [costs more to mint](http://time.com/money/4618271/penny-cost-make-worth/) these coins than they’re worth as currency. \nYou can’t use them in vending machines, parking meters or arcades.\nThey accumulate in jars and slow transactions.\nYes, technically, you can throw them in a fountain and make wishes on them. And they have more intrinsic value than, say, Bitcoins. But they’re also choking hazards. Per [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/children-and-choking-hazards/):\nCoins, especially pennies, are a major choking hazard and since adults rarely pick them up, they are plentiful on the ground for children.\nMany people have had enough. Last April, U.S. Senators John McCain and Mike Enzi reintroduced a piece of legislation called the Currency Optimization, Innovation, and National Savings Act (a.k.a. the COINS Act), which would have finally put the penny in a well-deserved grave and saved $16 billion to boot.\n[AOL reported](https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/04/02/two-senators-announce-plan-to-eliminate-penny-replace-dollar-bi/22022666/) that\nAlthough it is unclear why that legislation did not pass, the Wall Street Journal pointed out in 2013 that, according to the Federal Reserve, dollar coins were so unpopular that about $1.4 billion worth of them had been produced but were not being used.\nAt some point, our elected officials will clearly get it together and bury the penny. But when? Specifically, will the U.S. stop minting pennies before 2025?\n",
- "numforecasts": 373,
+ "numforecasts": 374,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z",
@@ -47728,17 +50398,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.71,
+ "probability": 0.72,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Ray Kurzweil is an author, computer scientist, inventor and futurist. He is best known for making what many consider to be extremely optimistic prediction about the future of technology that involve exponential growth leading up to [technological singularity]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity), which Kurzweil predicts will happen circa. 2045. A list of Kurzweil's predictions can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_made_by_Ray_Kurzweil).\nIt is asked:\nWill Ray Kurzweil be proven generally right in his predictions?\nNote that the question refers to Kurzweil's predictions as of the time of the the writing of the question. Given that 'generally right' is hard to define, the question shall use consensus forming to create its own answer.\nIf the community prediction at the time of closing is > 80%, then the questions resolves positive. If the community prediction at the time of closing is < 20%, then the questions resolves negative. If the community prediction at the time of closing is ≥ 20% and ≤80%, then a member of Metaculus staff shall decide resolution. \nTo help reduce the vagueness of the question, Metaculus may, at its discretion, periodically survey the perceived correctness of Kurzweil's prediction, per a fixed methodology similar to that employed in [this report](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kbA6T3xpxtko36GgP/assessing-kurzweil-the-results), but with a modification to survey and weight by importance of the prediction.\n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
+ "numforecasts": 198,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2018-08-05T07:00:00Z",
@@ -47748,6 +50418,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 1139,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4078/what-will-the-size-of-singapores-total-foreign-workforce-be-for-the-first-month-after-2020-12-01-for-which-data-is-published/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019.\nSingapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies.\nSingapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/)\nThis question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?\nThis question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.\nIf no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 140,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-08T18:22:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-08T17:22:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will OpenAI reach its profit cap for the first round of investors by 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4873/will-openai-reach-its-profit-cap-for-the-first-round-of-investors-by-2035/",
@@ -47807,6 +50520,65 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
+ "numforecasts": 221,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 190,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will space mining be profitable?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.\nThis being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.\nWhen will a space mining company report a profit?\n---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). \n---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. \n---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. \n---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 84,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-26T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2151-01-01T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2201-01-01T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/",
@@ -47866,6 +50638,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.\nQuestion: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?\nResolution details:\n---Only humans in the observable universe count. \n---\"Humans\" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 143,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2345-01-21T05:07:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.64,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.36,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 106,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6024/sexual-scandal-amongst-animal-advocates/",
@@ -47909,97 +50724,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wild_animal_suffering)\nWild animal suffering is the suffering experienced by nonhuman animals in nature through causes such as disease, injury, parasitism, starvation, natural disasters, and killings by other animals. Wild animal suffering has historically been discussed in the context of the philosophy of religion as an instance of the problem of evil. More recently, a number of academics have considered the suspected scope of the problem from a secular standpoint as a general moral issue, one that humans might be able to take actions toward preventing.\nFor the purposes of this question, reducing wild animal suffering is a mainstream moral issue if ANY of the following become true before 2200.\n1-- \nAt least three reliable polls reveal that at least 30% of representative adults in the United States agree that we should reduce wild animal suffering AND the poll clarifies that reducing wild animal suffering may run counter to traditional environmentalist ideals of ANY of biodiversity, habitat preservation, ecosystem health.\n2-- \nLegislation is passed in the United States which is widely recognized as having goals to reduce wild animal suffering from natural causes. A Metaculus moderator agrees that such legislation is roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering, and is ambitious in scope.\n3-- \nThere are university courses on [welfare biology](https://www.animal-ethics.org/wild-animal-suffering-section/introduction-to-welfare-biology/) in at least 10 accredited American universities. A Metaculus moderator judges that these courses teach welfare biology as the concept is understood in 2020, and more narrowly, \"a research field devoted to studying the wellbeing of animals in general, and focused especially on animals in their natural ecosystems.\"\n4-- \nA protest aimed at raising awareness of wild animal suffering attracts at least 10,000 people as reported by at least 2 reliable media sources. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the protest goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n5-- \nA major political party includes wild animal suffering as part of their platform. A Metaculus moderator agrees that the party goals are roughly aligned with the spirit of Brian Tomasik or David Pearce's written work on wild animal suffering.\n6-- \nBrian Tomasik (or an emulation of him) holds an elected political office at the national level.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2175-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "A freer China? Chinese political rights and civil liberties in 2028",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1454/a-freer-china-chinese-political-rights-and-civil-liberties-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.\nLast year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.\n[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .\nAccording to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.\nThe reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.\nFreedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.\nWhat will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-10-30T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4846/when-will-evidence-of-successful-synthesis-of-the-element-ununennium-be-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. \nHeavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.\nUnunennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.\nWhen will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?\nResolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nFor example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the minimum magnetic field strength during Solar Cycle 25?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4974/what-will-be-the-minimum-magnetic-field-strength-during-solar-cycle-25/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.\n[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. \nRobert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:\n“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.\" \nPeak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. \nDuring periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). \nWhat will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nQuestion resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:05:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T02:06:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). \nHow many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T01:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-02-20T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5744/date-when-150m-in-us-vaccinated-from-covid-19/",
@@ -48043,22 +50767,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/",
@@ -48102,54 +50810,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will the world have reached peak Facebook?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1632/when-will-the-world-have-reached-peak-facebook/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.\nWhile there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.\nBut while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:\nWhen will the world have reached peak Facebook?\nFor the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-21T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-10-08T10:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-10-08T10:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3541/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5287/when-will-america-have-an-emigration-crisis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?\nWhile seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.\nDefine an emigration crisis as:\n---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. \nWhen will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?\nTo operationalize this further, \n--- \nFor something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.\n--- \nIf >50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. \nWe ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.\nOn the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with >50 predictions, is in the past:\nWith 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. \nWith a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.\nWith 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.\nIf the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to >December 31st, 2030.\nThe question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. \nAll times in American Eastern Time. \n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-09-21T13:02:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6065/us-federal-budget-for-income-security-2021/",
@@ -48182,33 +50842,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared \"commercially extinct\", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection.\nThen, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency.\nHope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish.\nWill a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?\nA few fine points:\n---This question resolves positively Cavendish bananas are unavailable on on 2029-12-31. \n---The question resolves negatively if Cavendish bananas are still available (regardless of whether they're genetically modified or not). \n---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. \n---\"Available\" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. \n",
- "numforecasts": 73,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/",
@@ -48236,22 +50869,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?\nThis question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).\nIf Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.\nNote that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).\nThis is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).\n",
- "numforecasts": 102,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-11-02T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/",
@@ -48295,22 +50912,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.\nIn 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be \"very strong\" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. \nIf Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?\nIf no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 33,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/",
@@ -48338,22 +50939,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T01:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-01T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3592/ev-battery-storage-costs/",
@@ -48370,54 +50955,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n",
- "numforecasts": 39,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5911/april-2021-production-of-semiconducters/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for May 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n",
- "numforecasts": 177,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-16T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 3rd parameter n_e: What is the average number of habitable planets per star?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-3rd-parameter-n_e/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will CarbonCure still exist in 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4864/will-carboncure-still-exist-in-2030/",
@@ -48445,33 +50982,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will there be a vegetarian U.S. president by the end of 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3359/will-there-be-a-vegetarian-us-president-by-the-end-of-2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.14,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.86,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nVarious notable people who [have been reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vegetarians) to have adhered to a vegetarian diet at some point during their life, such as:\n---Mahatma Gandhi, Indian civil rights activist and political ethicist \n---Voltaire, French philosopher \n---Nikola Tesla, Serbian-American inventor \nAlthough no U.S. president has been a vegetarian during their time in office, various vegetarian U.S. politicians have run for the office of President, such as [Cory Booker](https://newrepublic.com/article/153085/cory-booker-first-vegan-president), [Ben Carson](https://grist.org/food/meet-the-first-vegetarian-president-not/) and [Dennis Kucinich](https://grist.org/politics/dennis-kucinich-eco-darling-and-veganousted-from-congress/).\nWill there be a sitting U.S. president who is vegetarian during their time in office, by the end of 2036?\nThis resolves positively if any sitting U.S. president, during their time of holding office, claims that they adhere to any vegetarian diet. A vegetarian diet includes [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarianism, [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) and veganism.\n",
- "numforecasts": 218,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/",
@@ -48488,49 +50998,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will big ISPs bundle website access in the post-net neutrality age?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1003/will-big-isps-bundle-website-access-in-the-post-net-neutrality-age/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "After a much publicized fight over net neutrality, the Trump administration repealed the net neutrality regulations enacted in 2015 under the Obama administration, which prohibited Internet Service Providers (ISPs) from charging more for certain content or giving preferential treatment to certain websites.\nThis has raised fears among some about several possible scenarios where telecom companies restrict the freedom of the internet in various ways. One of these is bundling of access to websites - for example, allowing companies to sell access to Facebook and Twitter separately from the New York times (or smaller websites like Metaculus), and charging different and/or separate rates. \nThis question resolves positively if any of the top 5 ISPs has at least 10% of their customers on any bundled plan of such kind at a single point in time between question opening time and Dec 31, 2021. It resolves negatively if a survey at the time of question resolution of products-on-offer from the top 5 ISPs does not show any products with bundling of particular websites. Resolves ambiguously if ISPs are actively offering bundles, but it is unclear whether they constitute 10% of customers for any given ISP. Bundling refers to the description in the second paragraph of this question.\nHere are the top 5 ISPs for this question:\n1-- \nComcast\n2-- \nCharter\n3-- \nAT&T\n4-- \nVerizon\n5-- \nCentury Link\n(From [this list](https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15413870/comcast-broadband-internet-pay-tv-subscribers-q1-2017).)\n",
- "numforecasts": 135,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-08-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the global adult literacy rate reach 95%?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2943/when-will-the-global-adult-literacy-rate-reach-95/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-18T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3104/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2029/",
@@ -48547,60 +51014,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has outlined various illustrative model pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century. Its third pathway (P3) is the 'middle-of-the-road' scenario in terms of our ability to transition our energy supply toward renewables. In this scenario, we will continue emitting greenhouse gasses (GHGs) until the end of the century, and we need to employ some carbon dioxide removal (CDR) techniques, such as through the deployment of [Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bio-energy_with_carbon_capture_and_storage) (BECCS), to achieve a concentration of GHG consistent with the 1.5°C target. According the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf):\nP3: A middle-of-the-road scenario in which societal as well as technological development follows historical patterns. Emissions reductions are mainly achieved by changing the way in which energy and products are produced, and to a lesser degree by reductions in demand.\nAccording to the [(IPCC, 2018)](https://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_fig3b.pdf), P3 is consistent with a share of 48% or less of renewables energy used in electricity production in 2030.\nIn 2016, 22.66% of total electricity was produced using renewable energy, according to [World Bank data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/renewables-share-electricity-production). \nWill renewable energy contribute between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?\nResolution\nThis resolves positively if renewable energy contributes between 48.00% and 25.00% (inclusive) to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030, according to World Bank data.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11z_Nh1o95otYkpW_rq47FyZzJDILx8oL935W_Wp-hAY/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-16T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Although the United States has announced intentions to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, 194 countries are still part of [the agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement), including the European Union, [the world's #3 carbon dioxide emitter.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions)\nUnder the agreement, each country sets its own emission reduction goals. The EU's goal was to reduce emissions by 40% below 1990 levels. If achieved, by 2030 the EU will emit around [3.4-3.9 gigatons of CO2-equivalent greenhouse gases per year](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html), whereas today the region accounts for [3.46 gigatons per year, or nearly ten percent of the global total](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions). Emissions have been in decline since 1990. Current projections estimate that the EU goals represent [a slowdown in the region's trend of emission reduction](http://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu.html) and that the slowdown is not be enough to limit global temperature rise to only 1.5 or even 2 degrees C.\n[Other goals](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/citizens/eu_en) of the EU's by 2030:\n--- \nAt least 27% of total energy consumption from renewable energy\n--- \nAt least 27% increase in energy efficiency\nWill the EU achieve its Paris Climate Agreement goals?\nThis question will resolve as positive if a credible news report cites an analysis independent of the European Union government confirming that Europe has met all three 2030 climate action goals, including emission reduction by at least 40% below 1990 levels, on or before January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 301,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Longbets series: Will slaughterhouses be banned in the United Kingdom by 2050.",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4894/longbets-series-will-slaughterhouses-be-banned-in-the-united-kingdom-by-2050/",
@@ -48709,22 +51122,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n",
- "numforecasts": 65,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Do humans have functionally important neurogenesis throughout their life?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1515/do-humans-have-functionally-important-neurogenesis-throughout-their-life/",
@@ -48752,54 +51149,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the heaviest payload put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service at start of 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1620/what-will-be-the-heaviest-payload-put-into-leo-by-a-launch-vehicle-that-is-in-service-at-start-of-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.\nCurrently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).\nOn January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? \nThis question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 69,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a spacecraft overtake Voyager-1 in distance from the Sun?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/653/when-will-a-spacecraft-overtake-voyager-1-in-distance-from-the-sun/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.\nWith much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).\nSometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:\nWhen will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?\nWe want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.\n",
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-21T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-10-15T20:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2250-10-15T20:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What percentage of Americans will be able to cover an unexpected $400 expense without selling something or borrowing money in 2020?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2572/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-able-to-cover-an-unexpected-400-expense-without-selling-something-or-borrowing-money-in-2020/",
@@ -48816,22 +51165,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n",
- "numforecasts": 219,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-04T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/",
@@ -48864,33 +51197,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.01,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.99,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Alexander Emric Jones is a famous (or perhaps, infamous) American filmmaker, radio host, entrepreneur, and noted conspiracy theorist. Some have claimed (including his own lawyer in court, during a custody battle) that Jones is merely an extremely dedicated performance artist playing a character - but he publicly denies this.\nHe rose to prominence in the 2010s, particularly during and after the 2016 Presidential Election cycle, in which he was a vocal and high-profile supporter of Donald Trump. More recently, he and his content have been banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube for spreading so-called 'fake news', disinformation, and alleged 'hate speech' over a period of some years. He has also been banned from using the PayPal service.\nJones has previously ran for public office. In early 2000, Jones was one of seven Republican candidates for state representative in Texas House District 48, an open swing district based in Austin, Texas. Jones stated that he was running \"to be a watchdog on the inside\" but withdrew from the race after a couple of weeks. He remains fervently opinionated about American politics, and has not ruled out the possibility of attempting run for election again in the future. As we have learned in recent years, political events can be difficult to forecast.\nThis question asks: At any time before January 1 2030, will Alexander Emric Jones ever legally hold one of the following offices: United States Representative, United States Senator, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Vice President of the United States, or President of the United States?\nThe question resolves positively if Jones ever legally holds one of these offices before January 1 2030, regardless of whether he is elected to office or comes to legally occupy the position in another manner. The question resolves negatively if Jones does not do so by January 1 2030, or if he dies before that date.\nThe question resolves ambiguously in the event that all of these offices cease to exist before January 1 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 251,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/",
@@ -48907,22 +51213,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4449/when-will-global-ipv4-traffic-account-for-less-than-1-of-total-internet-traffic/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.\n[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.\nWhen will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?\nResolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-02T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T15:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T15:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6023/charity-in-china-to-ace-aces-criteria/",
@@ -49036,6 +51326,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 170,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2751/will-the-text-of-the-voynich-manuscript-be-successfully-translated-by-2050/",
@@ -49063,22 +51369,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "numforecasts": 168,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3277/what-will-be-the-average-overall-global-health-security-index-score-for-2030/",
@@ -49122,33 +51412,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will most protons that currently make up Earth (and you) eventually decay?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1535/will-most-protons-that-currently-make-up-earth-and-you-eventually-decay/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Warning: This is one of those Metaculus questions with no points actually on the line. It's not going to resolve.\nWhat is the ultimate fate of the \"stuff\" that makes us up? It's mostly protons, which (fortunately) are remarkably durable.\nAfter we as individuals die, the material that comprises our bodies at the time of death will mostly likely get recycled into Earth's biosphere. (This isn't 100% guaranteed--some lucky few of us may get to [die on Mars](https://www.popsci.com/how-youll-die-mars).) And not ALL of the protons in our bodies will remain on Earth. By chance, some will escape into space and roam the void.\nBut what's the long long term fate of the protons of Earth? Perhaps the Earth will be swallowed by the sun in a few billion years. [Or maybe not](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sun-will-eventually-engulf-earth-maybe/). But on much longer time scales, many interesting things can happen to our protons:\n--- \nWe could end up sucked into the black hole at the center of our galaxy if the Andromeda-Milky Way [galactic merger](http://phenomena.nationalgeographic.com/2014/03/24/scientists-predict-our-galaxys-death/) happens just so. Or another black hole could happen along.\n--- \nA [vacuum state change](https://nerdist.com/vacuum-decay-is-a-very-real-way-all-life-in-the-universe-might-be-destroyed/) or other weird physics could end the universe as we know it.\n--- \nProtons might [not actually decay](https://www.symmetrymagazine.org/article/do-protons-decay), and just hang around forever.\nWhat do you think will happen to our remnants in super-deep time? \nQuestion \"resolves\" positive if most of Earth's protons eventually decay into lighter particles; resolves negative if the majority of Earth's protons have a different fate (are processed into net zero-baryon number black hole emissions, destroyed in a phase transition, sit around forever, recast into other particles by superintelligent beings, disappear when the simulation's plug is pulled, or whatever.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 67,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-02T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will the CDC adopt a Health at Every Size approach towards addressing obesity before 2035?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5265/cdc-to-adopt-haes-by-2035/",
@@ -49176,49 +51439,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 17,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Alcor offer the use of a fixative during cryopreservation procedures before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4051/will-alcor-offer-the-use-of-a-fixative-during-cryopreservation-procedures-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.52,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.48,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation (ASC) [is](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001122401500245X)\na brain-banking technique for preserving detailed brain ultrastructure over long time scales.\nIt was the technique that [won](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) the Large Mammal BPF Prize in 2018. ASC works by fixing biological tissue using glutaraldehyde, protecting the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. However, glutaraldehyde is not the only [fixative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixation_(histology)) available. At the moment, ASC is merely the only technique that I'm currently aware of that uses a fixative to protect tissue prior to cryopreservation. \nAlcor does not currently offer ASC for its members, writing [a mixed review about it as a research direction](https://www.alcor.org/blog/http-www-alcor-org-blog-alcor-position-statement-on-large-brain-preservation-foundation-prize//) in 2018, and without releasing any plans for adoption.\nA common position among cryonicists is that ASC will not allow for successful revival since aldehyde fixation destroys biological viability. Proponents of ASC respond that it preserves fine tissue better than existing vitrification techniques, and is suitable for people who want their brain to be scanned and \"[uploaded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading)\" onto a computer. Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, has [said](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html)\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nWill Alcor change their mind and offer using a fixative in their cryopreservation procedure before 2030?\nResolution will be determined by a document released from Alcor reporting that they now offer the use of a fixative during an active cryopreservation for their members. If such a document is published by Alcor before 2030, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-12-30T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will we have a new Pope?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4606/when-will-we-have-a-new-pope/",
@@ -49365,7 +51585,7 @@
}
],
"description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n",
- "numforecasts": 5108,
+ "numforecasts": 5109,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z",
@@ -49392,45 +51612,29 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/",
+ "title": "Will Catalonia become an independent state?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "In 1994 Norway joined the EEA (at its creation) meaning that it participates in the single market allowing for the freer flow of goods, services, capital and people, but Norway doesn't have a say on the content of the rules of the single market as it is not in the EU. Also being in the EEA, but not in the EU allows countries to be outside of the EU VAT area, Common fisheries policy (this is seen as particularly important for Norway), Common Agricultural Policy, the Customs Union and the jurisdiction of the ECJ. When the implementation period ended the UK left the EEA and Sweden was just a member of the EEA before it entered the EU a year later in 1995.\nOn 31 December 2020 the UK entered into a trade agreement with the EU and left the EEA giving the UK more control of standards, but more trade friction due to rules of origin (though there is a one year exemption) and divergence of standards. In this context the [Center party in Norway has suggested it wants to leave the EEA and is performing well in the polls.](https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-eu-relationship-center-party-euroskeptics/)\nWill Norway leave EEA before 2025?\nThis question will resolve when any of the following conditions occurs; the first to occur determines the resolution:\n---Norway leaves the EEA (Positive resolution) \n---2025-01-01 is reached (Negative resolution) \n---Either organization seizes to exist (Ambiguous resolution) \n",
- "numforecasts": 49,
+ "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nWill Catalonia will be an independent state within 5 years of this vote? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 408,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -49477,22 +51681,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3289/how-many-gene-edited-babies-will-have-been-born-worldwide-by-the-end-of-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nThis question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-08T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020-2021 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3237/what-will-the-average-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-over-the-2020-2021-period/",
@@ -49536,54 +51724,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.\nReduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. \nWhat will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?\nResolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.\n",
- "numforecasts": 52,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-02T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a major U.S. supermarket sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3335/when-will-a-major-us-supermarket-sell-no-kill-eggs-in-at-least-25-states/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nWhen will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-13T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4264/how-many-years-after-the-silver-turing-test-is-passed-will-an-agi-system-be-developed/",
@@ -49600,33 +51740,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1683/will-the-k%25C3%25A1rm%25C3%25A1n-line-be-changed-before-2023/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.2,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In reality the equator isn’t a nice line as one finds one a globe, and similarly there isn’t an altitude where the atmosphere conveniently stops and space begins.\nSo how does one define that demarcation?\nTheodore von Kármán calculated an altitude of 83.6 kilometres (51.9 miles) as a measure at which the atmosphere is so thin that a vehicle would have to travel faster than orbital velocity to derive sufficient aerodynamic lift to support itself.\nIn practical terms, the Fédération aéronautique internationale (FAI), the go-to body for aeronautics and space record keeping, demarked 100 km (62 mi) as the boundary to space, while NASA and US Air Force defined 80.5 km (50 mi) as their limit by which to measure and attribute astronaut status. There is currently no international law either way. \n[In a recent paper surveying historical satellite orbit data of the last 50 years](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221) ([PDF](http://planet4589.org/space/papers/Edge.pdf)) J. C. McDowell proposed a redefinition of the Kármán Line down to 80 km, close to the 50 mi boundary NASA uses. One of his arguments are the historical precedents set by satellites dipping below the 100 km boundary multiple times before ultimately deorbiting.\nThe FAI holds annual meetings for their various commissions, among them astronautics, and a general conference, during which members can vote on a number of issues. [On 30 Nov the FIA](https://www.fai.org/news/statement-about-karman-line) announced they’d be holding a joint [FAI](https://www.fai.org)/[IAF](https://www.iafastro.org) workshop in 2019 to explore possible alterations to the definition of the boundary of space.\nWill the Kármán Line be changed before 2023?\nThis will resolve positive if the FAI changes their definition in regards to altitude requirements (in particular [Sporting Code Section 8, at 2.18 and others](https://www.fai.org/sites/default/files/documents/sporting_code_section_8_edition_2009.pdf)), negative if not, and ambiguous if the FAI or a similarly placed and recognised international body ceases to exist by the resolution date. Note that the altitude has to be explicitly changed, and indirect changes from amendments to measurement methods, definitions of longitude and latitude, and permitted errors do not count toward positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 165,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-27T10:12:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T11:30:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will cost-adjusted IT technology be worse than it was 8 years (32 quarters) ago in at least one quarter prior to 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/968/will-cost-adjusted-it-technology-be-worse-than-it-was-8-years-32-quarters-ago-in-at-least-one-quarter-prior-to-2030/",
@@ -49654,65 +51767,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will we be able to predict at least 10% of variance in Big Five agreeableness based on genetic information alone?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3518/when-will-we-be-able-to-predict-at-least-10-of-variance-in-big-five-agreeableness-based-on-genetic-information-alone/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). \nResearch suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). \nHowever, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). \nThe limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. \nHowever, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. \nPositive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 41,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-24T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T13:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5120/if-tested-would-the-most-powerful-quesion-answering-ai-system-as-of-2022-06-01-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-5th-graders/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nThis is one of a series probing the predicted state-of-the-art in AI systems by pitting them directly against humans in adversarial (against the AI) general intelligence tests. Other questions in this series as of launch ask [whether GPT-3 can outperform human 4th graders on text-based questions,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/) and [whether by 2040 a system will exist that can outperform high-level human STEM grad students on totally general questions.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/)\nHere we ask: assume that as of 2022-06-01 the most capable AI (MCAI) text-based question answer system has been identified, and a generalized intelligence test is administered as described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/), but with 5th graders substituted for the 4th graders. \nQuestion resolves positively if the total of three averaged MCAI scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2023.\nResolution is ambiguous if no such test is administered prior to 2023-01-01.\nSome fine print:\n--- \nThe fine print from [this question](http://(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4903/if-tested-would-gpt-3-demonstrate-text-based-intelligence-parity-with-human-4th-graders/)) apply here with \"MCAI\" substituted for \"GPT-3\" and \"5th graders\" substituted for \"4th graders\".\n--- \nIf there are multiple qualitatively and significantly different competing candidates for the MCAI that (as judged by Metaculus moderators) have comparable probabilities of success, then the test will be assumed to be administered to at least two of the candidates, and the highest score taken.\n--- \nThe entrants are determined as of 2022-06-01, and the systems being tested should be functionally the same as what existed in 2022-06-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 42,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6486/bitcoin-dominance-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n",
- "numforecasts": 26,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/",
@@ -49729,33 +51783,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Who will win the 'worm wars'?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/",
@@ -49783,172 +51810,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Pandemic series: a significant bioterror attack by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/254/pandemic-series-a-significant-bioterror-attack-by-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bioterrorism is a significant and growing threat: in principle, infection of a single person with the right pathogen could create a devastating wave of sickness and death. \nThus far, the world has been largely spared this horror. The largest attack on US soil to date is apparently a [1984 Oregon attack on salad bars(!)](http://www.slate.com/blogs/atlas_obscura/2014/01/09/the_largest_bioterror_attack_in_us_history_began_at_taco_time_in_the_dalles.html) carried out by a religious group. \nInternationally, the Aum Shirinkyo cult made [multiple attempts](http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/atxchapter3.pdf) at biological attacks, including unsuccessful anthrax attacks. (It was more tragically successful using Sarin gas, which killed 12 in the 1994 subway attacks.)\nThese efforts at bioterrorism were largely failures; however, that does not mean future attacks will not succeed. So here we ask:\nBy 2025 will a bioterror attack occur in which more than 1000 total worldwide cases or 100 worldwide fatalities are reported? \nHere we consider only attacks in which a pathogen infects humans (rather than including toxins even if they are biologically generated such as for botulism), and we consider numbers from the WHO, CDC, or other government source.\n",
- "numforecasts": 153,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2017-06-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6246/nlp-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n",
- "numforecasts": 98,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6026/2021-donations-to-animal-charity-evaluators/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757\nIf the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n",
- "numforecasts": 31,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will there be at least 5 billion internet users?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2604/when-will-there-be-at-least-5-billion-internet-users/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) \n[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)\nWhen will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?\nResolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-02-03T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n",
- "numforecasts": 21,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a recession cause \"suicides by the thousands\"?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3912/will-a-recession-cause-suicides-by-the-thousands/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In a Fox News town hall on 2020-03-24, President Donald Trump predicted that a recession in the US would cause [\"suicides by the thousands.\"](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-u-s-will-have-suicides-by-the-thousands-if-economic-slowdown-lasts-too-long) Let's see if he's right!\n[CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D79F299) gives us their annual count of deaths-by-suicide. From this, we can perform a [simple linear regression](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G-ekOYSznqpXvMWxxVWHS7jj0lD-zivfwKHBJBF7qCQ/edit?usp=sharing) to see that the number of suicides is increasing by roughly 1012 annually. The last year for which data are available (2018) had 48,312 suicides. Accordingly, we might predict that there were roughly 49,324 in 2019 and there would be around 50,336 in a business-as-usual 2020 scenario. Thus, to judge the President's prediction, let's see if there are at least 1000 suicides more than that.\nIf the US experiences a recession in 2020, will the number of suicides in the US in 2020 exceed 51,336?\nFor purposes of this question:\n---A recession will be defined as two consecutive quarters of Negative GDP growth for the United States. \n---If the US does not experience a recession, this question resolves ambiguously. \n---The number of suicides will be the number reported by the [CDC's Wonder database](https://wonder.cdc.gov/), or by a press release or other official publication by the [National Center for Health Statistics](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/default.htm) reporting all deaths classified as any of [ICD10 codes X60-X84 (Intentional self-harm)](https://apps.who.int/classifications/apps/icd/icd10online2003/fr-icd.htm?gx60.htm+). If the NCHS goes defunct without a clear successor before publishing this data, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 570,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. \nIn this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:\nAverage weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. \nFor historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).\nResolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.\nThis question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-09-30T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1431/when-will-a-fifth-nation-be-able-to-launch-people-into-space/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. \nOn 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.\nOn 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.\nIndia plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.\nThat’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.\nPart of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:\nWhen will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?\nFor the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.\n",
- "numforecasts": 174,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will a reliable poll of physicists reveal that a majority of those polled accept the many-worlds interpretation by 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3842/will-a-reliable-poll-of-physicists-reveal-that-a-majority-of-those-polled-accept-the-many-worlds-interpretation-by-2050/",
@@ -50019,49 +51880,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Project Vesta still exist in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4863/will-project-vesta-still-exist-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.22,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.78,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton.\n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6110/2025-ea-survey-donations-to-global-poverty/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 18,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6031/more-transmissible-variant-to-infect-10m/",
@@ -50105,33 +51923,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.45,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.55,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010.\nWill the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the Labour party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Labour party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Labour party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Labour Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/",
@@ -50191,65 +51982,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many subscribers will Netflix have by August 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/504/how-many-subscribers-will-netflix-have-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. \nIn 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.\n[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).\nThis question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.\nAs reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? \nLinear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.\n",
- "numforecasts": 373,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By 1 January 2067, medical interventions for healthy adults will have been shown to extend average lifespan by at least 25 years",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4429/by-1-january-2067-medical-interventions-for-healthy-adults-will-have-been-shown-to-extend-average-lifespan-by-at-least-25-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.38,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.62,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In 2017, [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) conducted [an investigation on the mechanisms of aging](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging). A [section](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/cause-reports/scientific-research/mechanisms-aging#Indefinite_vs._moderate_healthy_life_extension) of their writeup considers indefinite life extension, as distinct from modest extension of lifespan, and concludes, with 7% confidence, that by 2067 some collection of medical interventions for adults will have been shown to extend adult lifespan by at least 25 years.\nThis question will resolve according to Open Philanthropy's explicit criteria:*\nBy January 1, 2067, there will be [some] collection of medical interventions for adults that are healthy apart from normal aging, which, according to conventional wisdom in the medical community, have been shown to increase the average lifespan of such adults by at least 25 years (compared with not taking the interventions).\nThe prediction is called off if some other innovations cause a historically exceptional increase in the rate of scientific progress during this period (such as the development of transformative AI capabilities). The prediction excludes diet, exercise, and lifestyle, as well as existing medical interventions for healthy people (such as currently available vaccines).\nMetaculus administrators will judge whether the criteria have been satisfied.\n--\n*The wording in the original Open Philanthropy report has been slightly altered so that a positive resolution corresponds to the occurrence of the relevant medical breakthrough (rather than to its failure to occur).\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-20T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2067-01-01T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4951/how-many-billions-of-tons-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-will-the-united-states-emit-in-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).\nOver the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.\nHow many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?\nResolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2037-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/",
@@ -50266,6 +51998,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.6,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.4,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 78,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5994/-change-in-pc-insurance-premiums-q1-2022/",
@@ -50298,22 +52057,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4911/when-will-an-individual-spacex-falcon-9-core-stage-launch-and-return-to-earth-for-the-tenth-time/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n",
- "numforecasts": 181,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5828/dc-charging-stations-in-orlando-fl-in-2021/",
@@ -50330,60 +52073,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4892/will-transformer-derived-architectures-still-be-state-of-the-art-for-language-modeling-in-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The transformer architecture was introduced in the landmark 2017 machine learning paper [Attention is All You Need](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762). Previously, many researchers believed that the attention mechanism was among the most promising research directions for improving sequence-to-sequence models. Writing in 2015, Christopher Olah [remarked](https://colah.github.io/posts/2015-08-Understanding-LSTMs/),\nLSTMs were a big step in what we can accomplish with RNNs. It’s natural to wonder: is there another big step? A common opinion among researchers is: “Yes! There is a next step and it’s attention!”\nThis prediction turned out to be correct. Transformers are generally considered to have unseated LSTM at competitive language modeling, and their central operating principle is using the attention mechanism. Will there be another big jump that unseats the transformer architecture by 2025?\nDefine a transformer derived architecture as one that is either directly referred to as a \"transformer\" or otherwise cites the 2017 paper from Vaswani et al. as the chief inspiration for its operation. If the architecture is a mix of at least two component architectures, it is also transformer derived if one of the component architectures is a transformer. If there is any contention in the Metaculus comment section, a strawpoll will be taken on the subreddit /r/machinelearning asking,\nIs it accurate to say that [the model in question] is a derivative of the transformer model from Vaswani et al.?\nAfter one week, a majority vote indicates the answer, with a tie indicating the answer \"Yes\". \nEither of these must be true for the question to resolve positively:\n1--A Google Scholar search is completed in December 2025 of the phrase \nlanguage model \"state of the art\"\nTake the top 5 papers released during the year of 2025. If at least two of them centrally describe some transformer model achieving state of the art performance during the previous year, then this question resolves positively.\nOR\n2--[This page](http://nlpprogress.com/english/language_modeling.html) about NLP progress has its top entry for the WikiText-2 benchmark describing a transformer derived language model in December 2025. \nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 37,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.02,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.98,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n",
- "numforecasts": 142,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "At what point will at least ten technologies listed on \"The Rejuvenation Roadmap\" be released to the public?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3461/at-what-point-will-at-least-ten-technologies-listed-on-the-rejuvenation-roadmap-be-released-to-the-public/",
@@ -50400,38 +52089,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What is the largest amount of iron that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3457/what-is-the-largest-amount-of-iron-that-will-be-used-to-fertilise-an-ocean-as-part-of-a-single-geoengineering-effort-by-the-end-of-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWhat is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. \nA single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\nIn case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nThis question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-09T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-07-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-02-20T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6302/sota-1-shot-on-miniimagenet-at-2024-12-14/",
@@ -50507,22 +52164,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the commercial real estate vacancy rate be in Q1 of 2021, in the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4720/what-will-the-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-rate-be-in-q1-of-2021-in-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May.\nAs of mid-May, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. \nLast month the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a recent [National Association of Realtors survey](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q1 of 2021, in the US? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n",
- "numforecasts": 184,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-29T21:19:40Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will there be another VEI level six (or higher) volcanic eruption on Earth before 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2518/will-there-be-another-vei-level-six-or-higher-volcanic-eruption-on-earth-before-2025/",
@@ -50625,22 +52266,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.\nAn [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. \nThe admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.\nThe AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-05T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/",
@@ -50684,22 +52309,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How much greenhouse gas will be emitted globally, in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3678/how-much-greenhouse-gas-will-be-emitted-globally-in-the-calendar-year-2030-in-gigatonnes-of-co%25E2%2582%2582-equivalent/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: \nGovernments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.\nThe annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.\nAccording to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:\n---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \nHow much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are <25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.\nData\nWorld Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.\n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-19T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T02:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) start operating by end of 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2709/will-the-international-thermonuclear-experimental-reactor-iter-start-operating-by-end-of-2025/",
@@ -50754,38 +52363,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will humanity use more than one millionth of the sun's energy output?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3882/when-will-humanity-use-more-than-one-millionth-of-the-suns-energy-output/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).\nHowever, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).\nSome futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.\nThis question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?\nThis question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.\nThe resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.\n\"Humanity\" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.\nRelated Questions:\n---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-21T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "6999-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 55,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/",
@@ -50872,22 +52449,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 269,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5885/will-elon-musk-walk-on-the-moon-by-2030/",
@@ -50931,76 +52492,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5540/scotus-impeachment-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A Supreme Court impeachment has only happened once in the history of the US: Justice Samuel Chase in 1804. However, he was only impeached by the House of Representatives-- the Senate aquitted him. Thus, a precedent was set for judicial independence, that justices serve for life without political interference.\nWe live in unprecedented times, and that precedent could change. Article 3, section 1 states \"judges [...] shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour\"; in other words, impeachment is still constitutional.\nWill a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030?\nThe question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030.\nAn impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. \n",
- "numforecasts": 72,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-30T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a generative model produce a realistic 2-minute video, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3056/when-will-a-generative-model-produce-a-realistic-2-minute-video-at-a-256--256-resolution-or-better/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n",
- "numforecasts": 149,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.69,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. \nConsider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): \nMalaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. \nHow do people contract malaria? You guessed it: mosquitoes. Specifically those from the genus [Anopheles](https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/about/biology/mosquitoes/index.html).\nWriting in Slate, journalist Daniel Engber builds a considered case for [wiping out moquitoes](http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/01/zika_carrying_mosquitoes_are_a_global_scourge_and_must_be_stopped.html):\nI hold a special reservoir of bile for [these] flying hypodermic needles that... spread bioterror in their wake. I’m mad at the mosquitoes, and it’s time to give ’em hell.\nWe have motivation to get the job done, along with gene-editing technology and other tools to do the dirty work. A company called [Oxitec](https://www.oxitec.com/), for instance, uses genetically modified skeeters to reduce pest populations ingeniously.\nBut the Oxitec plan would just control numbers. To really do-in a species, we'd need a technology called the [gene drive](https://www.nature.com/news/gene-drive-mosquitoes-engineered-to-fight-malaria-1.18858).\nAs Smithsonian [reported](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/kill-all-mosquitos-180959069/): \nIn theory, [we could] wipe out... every species of mosquito... there are around 3,500 of them, of which only about 100 spread human disease. You might want to stop at fewer than a dozen species in three genera—Anopheles (translation: “useless,” the malaria mosquito), Aedes (translation: “unpleasant,” the principal vector for yellow fever, dengue and Zika) and Culex (translation: “gnat,” responsible for spreading West Nile, St. Louis encephalitis and other viruses).\nAhh, but with great power comes great responsibility. Will we go through with this? More specifically: \nBefore the 21st century is out, will humanity deliberately exterminate at least one species of mosquito using a gene drive? \nThe positive resolution, a credible estimate of the mosquito population should be consistent with zero, and there should be a compelling argument that this is due to the gene drive (e.g. other species of mosquitos would continue to exist, other methods of controlling this species would have failed, etc.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 226,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-01-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will any country's military expenditure exceed that of the United States before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2605/will-any-countrys-military-expenditure-exceed-that-of-the-united-states-before-2030/",
@@ -51028,65 +52519,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L3 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L3 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L3 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 181,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the 2022 FIFA World Cup go ahead in Qatar?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/490/will-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-go-ahead-in-qatar/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.71,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.29000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In December 2010 it was announced that Qatar had won the right to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most prestigious tournament in international association football.\nThe decision was controversial for a number of reasons. Suggestions of corruption and bribery fell under an FBI investigation leading to the fall of FIFA President Sepp Blatter. The tournament is traditionally held in the summer, during which the daytime temperature in Qatar can surpass 50 degrees Celsius, making hosting the tournament safely for players and fans a challenge.\nIn the middle of 2017, Qatar's neighbours Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE have [cut off diplomatic relations and blockaded the border,](https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/jun/05/2022-world-cup-qatar-under-threat-saudi-arabia-blockade-fifa-football) accusing Qatar of funding and aiding terrorist organisations, placing the competition under threat.\nThis question asks:\nWill Qatar manage to host the 2022 tournament. It will resolve positively if the World Cup, as sanctioned by FIFA takes place in 2022 in Qatar. \nSince there is a possibility of a winter tournament, a World Cup that partially takes place over 2021 or 2023 still resolves positively.\nA positive resolution will require all of the matches to be played in Qatar, and for the World Cup to not face a boycott by serious playing nations (which we can define here as any previous winner).\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6577/it--comms-sector-weighting-2030-01-01/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n",
- "numforecasts": 59,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will KIC 9832227 become a nova by 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/420/will-kic-9832227-become-a-nova-by-2023/",
@@ -51114,45 +52546,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-02-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5492/most-popular-img-classification-benchmark-22/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n",
- "numforecasts": 24,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n",
- "numforecasts": 232,
+ "numforecasts": 233,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
@@ -51162,65 +52562,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much global photovoltaic energy generation will be deployed by end 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/454/how-much-global-photovoltaic-energy-generation-will-be-deployed-by-end-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy. \nEurope is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390).\nGrowth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020. \nProjections have [historically underestimated](http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur) estimate actual growth, however. The prices of PV energy continues to fall (see related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/321/1-dollarwatt-solar-energy-by-2020/)) and projection methodologies may in some cases fail to capture factors such as transformative technologies that may further drive PV growth.\nHow much global solar photovoltaic electricity-generating capacity, in gigawatts, will be in operation by 2020?\nThe definitive source for question resolution will be the annual \"[Trends](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3)\" report from the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org)'s [Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme](https://www.iea.org/tcp/renewables/pvps/). Because the report covers trends up to the year previous, resolution will be dependent on the report to be issued in late 2021. If this report should cease publication or substantially change its methodology, question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-03-27T16:54:11Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n",
- "numforecasts": 131,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/",
@@ -51237,38 +52578,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2820/if-the-us-does-not-pursue-nuclear-disarmament-how-many-nuclear-warheads-will-it-have-in-2029/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIf the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?\nThis resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.\nSee also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 71,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\nAdditional details: \n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.\n",
- "numforecasts": 111,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-05-12T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-04-25T04:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the % change of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England from 2019 to 2020 be?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6308/change-in-stis-from-2019-to-2020-in-england/",
@@ -51285,54 +52594,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.\nThe [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.\nIn 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into \"intrinsic rewards\" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with \"intrinsic rewards\" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without \"intrinsic rewards\" only explored 2 out of 24.\nIn Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [\"artificial curiosity\"](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). \nWe ask:\nWhen will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?\nAs of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) & [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). \nResolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-07-03T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-08-16T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Fuel cells vs batteries in 2030's vehicles",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/552/fcevs-vs-bevs-what-percentage-of-the-global-electric-transportation-market-excluding-gasoline-hybrids-will-hydrogen-fuel-cell-electric-vehicles-fcevs-be-in-annual-sales-revenues-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. \nWhat global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?\nWe'll add these all up to ask:\nWhat percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? \nResolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-03-01T09:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-03-01T09:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n",
- "numforecasts": 199,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Manned Mars landing by 100th Apollo 11 anniversary?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/603/manned-mars-landing-by-100th-apollo-11-anniversary/",
@@ -51360,22 +52621,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will AI out-perform humans on argument reasoning tasks?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-02T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/",
@@ -51430,76 +52675,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/804/1000th-binary-question-resolution-is-positive/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "It was previously asked [whether a question of unknown nature would resolve positive]( https://www.metaculus.com/questions/666/will-this-question-resolve-positive/). The Metaculus prediction ended up being 29.9% despite only 26.4% of previous binary Metaculus questions resolving positive. Once the nature of the question was revealed, it became clear that (despite resolving negative) the question was a lot more likely to resolve positive than the average Metaculus question. (A fair a priori probably would have been larger than 50%.)\nAs of the writing of this question, 525 binary Metaculus questions have resolved, the majority negative. This question is going to probe what the fair a priori of a future question will be. This avoids the arbitrariness of who gets to choose the secret question, as that still remains uncertain.\nIt is asked: Will the 1000th binary Metaculus question resolution be positive?\nTo avoid an incentive for cheating, whoever was the author of the 1000th question should be unable to earn any points on this question. The question should also be closed prematurely as soon as the 950th question resolves, even if that should be before its set closing date. Should the 1000th question resolve ambiguous, the 1001st question will be used for resolution, if the 1001st also resolves ambiguous, then the 1002nd, etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 90,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-04-16T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Guinea Worm be eradicated by the end of 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3351/will-guinea-worm-be-eradicated-by-the-end-of-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.58,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.42000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Humanity stands at the cusp of eradicating its second disease, [Dracunculiasis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dracunculiasis), or Guinea Worm Disease. In 2018, [only 28 cases](https://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html) were reported in humans, worldwide. Sadly, Guinea Worm appears to have [adapted to infecting dogs](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/18/health/guinea-worms-dogs-chad.html), reinvigorating wild populations and placing formerly safe communities back at risk. Recognizing the difficulty, [the World Health Organization (WHO) has moved its eradication deadline back from 2020 to 2030](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02921-w).\nWill the WHO certify Guinea Worm Eradication worldwide before the end of 2030?\nNote that the [WHO eradication certification](https://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/ICCDE_about/en/) requires the certified country to have three consecutive years free of any indigenous cases of the disease. Accordingly, this question will close three years prior to the deadline, and will be resolved negatively if any cases are reported anywhere after the beginning of 2028.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-20T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Democracy in Crisis: how many autocrats, strongmen and dictators in 2028?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1439/democracy-in-crisis-how-many-autocrats-strongmen-and-dictators-in-2028/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. \nHow many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n",
- "numforecasts": 108,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-18T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-02T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4711/how-many-total-games-will-be-played-in-the-nfls-2020-2021-regular-season/",
@@ -51570,22 +52745,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will the next Qatari general election be held?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3830/when-will-the-next-qatari-general-election-be-held/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n",
- "numforecasts": 51,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will the next human being walk on the Moon?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/",
@@ -51602,49 +52761,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Extremely Large Telescope see first light by the end of 2024?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1478/will-the-extremely-large-telescope-see-first-light-by-the-end-of-2024/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.07,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9299999999999999,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) is an extremely cool project. Here are the basics, courtesy [Space.com's reporting](https://www.space.com/40746-extremely-large-telescope.html):\nIn the mountains of Chile sits the site of what will become the largest optical telescope in the world. The Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) will have a primary mirror made up of almost 800 individual segments and will be capable of collecting more light than all of the existing 8-to-10-meter telescopes on the planet, combined.\nAmong [other things](https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/telescopes/a20264196/foundation-construction-extremely-large-telescope-chile/):\n[the ELT] will allow astronomers to probe the earliest ages of the universe, study ancient galaxies, measure exoplanet atmospheres, and answer dozens of lingering questions in astronomy\nUnsurprisingly, astronomers and space geeks everywhere are champing at the bit to put the pedal to the metal. But the project is big... and expensive. The original price tag was [$1.34 billion](https://www.space.com/27930-european-extremely-large-telescope-construction-approved.html). And delays on these projects can derail deadlines easily. Witness the [debacle](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/nasa-james-webb-space-telescope-delay-human-error/563903/) that has been NASA's James Webb Space Telescope.\nWill the mission arrive on time? Will the ELT see first light in 2024? \nResolution is positive if by major media account \"first light\" (which is a pretty standard term) has been achieved by start of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 122,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Nigeria's population exceed 400 million before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2632/will-nigerias-population-exceed-400-million-before-2050/",
@@ -51715,65 +52831,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 43,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-22T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2051-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).\nTo shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:\nWhat will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?\nResolution\n--- \nThis question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.\n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n--- \nTo be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.\n",
- "numforecasts": 87,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2053-01-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2200-01-10T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5459/psilocybin-not-schedule-i--2036/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.72,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.28,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "There is a considerable difference of opinion around the safety and potential medical use of psilocybin. In 2020, Psilocybin is Schedule I, the same category as Heroin and the most restrictive category of the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act)\n[This article](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6007659/) discusses aspects of the debate.\nWill Psilocybin be removed from Schedule I List before 2036?\nA credible source will need to post a link to a DEA source similar to [this one](https://www.justice.gov/archive/ndic/pubs6/6038/) which mentions psilocybin in some category other than Schedule I. This question will resolve ambiguously if the [Controlled Substances Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Controlled_Substances_Act) is repealed and another law defines a similarly regulated category, or if the DEA ceases to classify drugs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 35,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-10-27T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-10-16T22:54:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-03-16T22:54:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/",
@@ -51817,194 +52874,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.23,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), the median expert estimated that there is a 50% chance of human-level artificial intelligence by 2062, and after this milestone were reached, respondents reported a 10% chance that superintelligence would be achieved within two years. [Our very own question on the prospect of human-machine intelligence parity by 2040](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) currently has a median prediction of 60%. In another question on the possibility of progress toward human-machine intelligence parity surprising us, a similar median estimate is given.\nIn the aforementioned survey, experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?\nThe question resolves positively if a catastrophe occurs resulting principally from the principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s) that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 261,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-31T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5225/relaxation-of-maximum-group-size-in-england/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. [This government webpage](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing#seeing-friends-and-family) gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.\nThe Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for [\"any longer than we have to\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54102872). But how long will this be?\nThat is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?\nThe question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.\nThe question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings. \n",
- "numforecasts": 323,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. \n[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated Questions:\n[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n",
- "numforecasts": 204,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-12-31T23:43:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2060-12-31T23:44:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3426/philpapers-survey-mini-series-the-many-worlds-interpretation-of-quantum-mechanics/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nBackground\nThe many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"many-worlds\" on the \"Quantum mechanics\" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-24T03:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-08-01T02:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-01T02:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the first commercial hyperloop system be within the US?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/513/will-the-first-commercial-hyperloop-system-be-within-the-us/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.37,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.63,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Elon Musk's dream of a hyperloop – a pod-based transportation system that uses magnetic levitation in a near-vacuum – is coming closer to reality. Tests in the Nevada desert have achieved speeds up to 192 mph, and Musk announced in July 2017 that he had [\"verbal approval\"](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/07/20/elon-musk-hyperloop/495735001/) for a hyperloop between New York and Washington, DC. (Though it is rather unclear what exactly this means.)\nBut other countries are interested too. Dubai and Russia are both developing plans. For Russia, a hyperloop could open up new areas of the country to [trade with China](https://hyperloop-one.com/blog/hyperloop-one-can-open-russias-far-east-china-trade). If, that is, [lawsuits](https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/russia-s-hyperloop-dream-stalls) don't derail the project. In Dubai, designs for a Dubai-Abu Dhabi hyperloop network [already exist](http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperloop-one-how-it-works-2017-7/#the-start-up-announced-in-early-novemberthat-it-signed-an-agreement-withdubai-roads-and-transport-authority-to-evaluate-using-the-hyperloop-between-dubai-and-abu-dhabi-1). \nAlthough implementing the hyperloop concept is far from easy, [several](http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2017/07/in-defense-of-elon-musks-audacious-insane-brilliant-crazy-plan-for-an-east-coast-hyperloop/) [writers](http://grist.org/article/in-defense-of-the-east-coast-hyperloop-elon-musk/) have said that testing and construction should begin anyway, as the hyperloop may be the revolutionary transportation system the world desperately needs.\nWill the first commercial hyperloop system be built inside of the United States?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the first hyperloop system to commence commercial operations is located the US rather than in Dubai, Russia, or any other country outside the US. Resolves as ambiguous if no commercial hyperloop system is operating as of 2035.\n\"Commerical Operations\" means that people will utilize the system as transport (even if somewhat as a novelty) outside of a test setting and without signing any waivers etc.\n",
- "numforecasts": 275,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country before 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3118/will-extinction-rebellion-or-a-splinter-group-be-declared-a-terrorist-organisation-by-a-g7-country-before-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Extinction Rebellion has organised protests to disrupt traffic in cities around the world, and had people mass arrested. It is conceivable that the main group or a splinter group could begin to engage in more extreme activities and be declared a terrorist organisation by a G7 country.\nResolves positively if the government of a G7 country declares Extinction Rebellion, or a splinter group, a terrorist organisation before 1/1/2025. Resolves ambiguously on 1/1/2025 if a claimed splinter group is declared a terrorist organisation but there is no consensus that it grew from Extinction Rebellion.\n",
- "numforecasts": 223,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-09-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-30T14:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3596/when-will-beyond-chicken-be-available-from-a-grocery-store/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).\nA commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).\nWhen will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"available from a grocery store\" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.\n",
- "numforecasts": 126,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-06-01T04:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/",
@@ -52053,162 +52922,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.77,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.22999999999999998,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In economist Robin Hanson's 2001 paper [Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), he writes\nA simple exogenous growth model gives conservative estimates of the economic implications of machine intelligence. [...] Without machine intelligence, world product grows at a familiar rate of 4.3% per year, doubling every 16 years, with about 40% of technological progress coming from ordinary computers. With machine intelligence, the (instantaneous) annual growth rate would be 45%, ten times higher, making world product double every 18 months! If the product shares are raised by 20%, and general technology growth is lowered to preserve the 4.4% figure, the new doubling time falls to less than 6 months.\nThis question is conditioned on the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence, as defined by [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). Assume that at some point, a machine is created that passes the test specified in that question.\nIf a machine passes that test, this question resolves positively if world GDP grows by at least 30.0% for any single year in the fifteen years following the date of the test, according to a reputable organization such as [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\nIf no machine passes that test by the end of this century, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 107,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T07:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide, over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3582/growth-rate-total-renewables-2020-to-2022/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n",
- "numforecasts": 163,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "By the end of 2029, will the European Union require commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3371/by-the-end-of-2029-will-the-european-union-require-commercially-farmed-fish-to-be-stunned-before-being-slaughtered/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In the European Union, an estimated 500 million to 1.7 billion farmed fish were killed for human consumption in 2015, comprising a range of species that are slaughtered in a variety of ways ([CIWF, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf)). Yet, despite the mounting evidence of fish sentience, and the substantial numbers involved in aquaculture, fish are currently excluded from much of the European Slaughter Regulation ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF)). \nThe key principle however, that animals “shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations”, does apply to fish ([European Union, 2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF); p.9). Humane slaughter methods should therefore be used, ensuring that fish are effectively stunned prior to killing or killed with a method that guarantees an immediate loss of consciousness.\nThe main farmed species in the EU are: Atlantic salmon, rainbow trout, common carp, European sea bass, gilthead sea bream, turbot, North African catfish, European eel, and Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ordered by greatest tonnage). Humane stunning systems exist or can be developed for all of these, but progress towards this goal varies for each species.([Compassion in World Farming, 2018](https://www.compassioninfoodbusiness.com/media/7434891/ciwf-2018-report__the-welfare-of-farmed-fish-during-slaughter-in-the-eu.pdf))\nThere is legislation in place to regulate the slaughter of animals in the European Union. Yet, while [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) (on the protection of animals at the time of killing) includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009). As explained therein, this is due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish. However, it is stated explicitly that the key principle remains applicable to fish, which states that (Article 3(1)):\nAnimals shall be spared any avoidable pain, distress or suffering during their killing and related operations. \nAccordingly, there is a legal requirement for member states to take action to avoid, or at least minimise, the suffering of fish at slaughter.\nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nHowever, the [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nBy the end of 2029, will the European Union enact legislation or a directive that requires commercially farmed fish to be stunned before being slaughtered?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if by the end of 2029, the European Union enacts legislation or a directive that requires at least 50% of all commercially farmed fish in the European Union to be stunned before slaughter by any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food. Positive resolution requires this legislation or directive to have come into effect before the end of 2029. Methods for stunning include percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Drake's Equation 5th parameter f_i: On what fraction of habitable planets with life does intelligence evolve?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1341/drakes-equation-5th-parameter-f_i/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n",
- "numforecasts": 234,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-24T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Another hit by two Cat 4+ hurricanes in the same year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/557/another-hit-by-two-cat-4-hurricanes-in-the-same-year/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Prior to 2017, the United States had never recorded landfall of more than one hurricane Category 4 or stronger in a single year. Since 1856, only [18 Category 4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_4_Atlantic_hurricanes) and [five Category 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes) storms have made landfall in the United States. But in 2017 both Hurricanes Harvey and Irma struck as Category 4 storms, hitting Texas and Florida, respectively. Subsequently, hurricane Jose developed into a Category 4 and hurricane Maria strengthened into a Category 5 storm, devastating Puerto Rico.\nThe highly destructive Atlantic hurricane season has focused attention on the relationship between climate change and the strength of hurricanes. Because [warm ocean water fuels hurricanes](http://theconversation.com/do-hurricanes-feel-the-effects-of-climate-change-83761) and warmer water = stronger hurricanes (and climate change = warmer water) stronger storms may become the norm in future decades. \nWill two Category 4+ hurricanes hit the United States within the same year in the next five years?\nThis question will resolve as positive if at least two named Atlantic hurricanes, both classified as Category 4 or 5 storms upon landfall, arrive on the territory of the United States before December 31, 2022. This resolution criteria includes landfall on the Florida Keys or other islands that are part of one of the 50 United States.\n",
- "numforecasts": 351,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-09-25T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-11-30T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will VR or AR Headsets dominate by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/579/will-vr-or-ar-headsets-dominate-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "If you asked someone in the early 2010s about virtual reality, they'd likely hearken back to the VR craze of the 90s, which fizzled out instead of being the promised wave of the future. But since then, with the development of the Oculus Rift, Google Cardboard and other systems, virtual reality has become more accessible and more useful than ever before. Estimates of sales of VR systems in 2016 exceeded [12 million units](https://www.statista.com/statistics/458037/virtual-reality-headsets-unit-sales-worldwide/) worldwide. \nAugmented reality, or AR, has come into its own in about the same timeframe. AR overlays virtual content onto images of the real world. Google Glass, introduced in 2013, and Microsoft's HoloLens, still in development, are wearable AR devices. Pokemon Go, introduced in summer 2016, demonstrated the possibilities of smartphone-based AR - no glasses needed. As Google Glass continues to find [application in factories and other workplaces](https://www.wired.com/story/google-glass-2-is-here/) Apple is rumored to be designing their [own AR headset](https://www.macrumors.com/2017/11/07/catcher-to-make-parts-for-ar-product/). *See related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/231/apple-virtualaugmented-reality-by-2020/).)\nWill VR headsets capture more than 50% of the AR/VR headset market by the end of 2025?\nThis question will resolve as positive if the number of VR headsets sold in 2025 exceeds the number of AR headsets sold in the same year. Credible industry reports will be required for resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 255,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-11-14T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-10-31T06:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-07-31T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644/if-labour-wins-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/208/to-the-stars-1-will-the-private-investment-in-laser-sail-extra-solar-travel-be-matched-by-a-comparable-amount-within-5-years/",
@@ -52236,38 +52949,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 158,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-11-16T03:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4332/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nIf GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. \nA similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-06T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-02-12T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will the US set a new annual GDP growth rate record high before 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/",
@@ -52311,54 +52992,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box average precision (box AP)?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6440/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2022-01-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Immortality - would philosophers choose it?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3435/philpapers-survey-mini-series-immortality-would-philosophers-choose-it/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on choosing immortality?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on:\nImmortality would you choose it?\nThis question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/",
@@ -52402,33 +53035,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will the next US recession turn into a depression?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4013/will-the-next-us-recession-turn-into-a-depression/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "As of Spring 2020, it seems likely that the world is only beginning to feel the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock market has plunged, and [unemployment has skyrocketed](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/). It's clear that a recession is nearly inevitable. What is less clear is how bad things will get. One simple operationalization of this question is \"Will the US Experience a Depression?\" [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp):\nA depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10 percent.\nAccording to this definition, Will the first United States recession before 2032 lead to a Depression?\nThis question resolves positively if either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n---The US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this one resolves positively). \n---Any year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less. \n",
- "numforecasts": 347,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T17:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/",
@@ -52456,33 +53062,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030?\nThe question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. \nResolution details:\n--- \nThe procedure to leave the US state need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature)\n------In case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded, or has been ejected out of the union \n--- \nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession\n------For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution \n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-25T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/",
@@ -52500,75 +53079,21 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3205/what-will-the-upper-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/",
+ "title": "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?\nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. \nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 96,
+ "description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 58,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.66,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.33999999999999997,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort. It is sometimes opposed to the unemployment rate, since it includes people who for various reasons are not in the job market.\nIt hovered around 59% until the late 1960's, then grew as high as 67% in 2000 before shrinking back to 63% in recent years. It seems to be roughly stable since 2014. (graph and data [here](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000)).\nThis question asks in which direction the LFPR will have changed in 2024 compared to 2018, as measured by the United States Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, series ID [LNS11300000](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/lns11300000). The quantities considered are the 12-month averages for 2018 and 2023.\nResolves:\n---positive if the average LFPR for 2023 is lower than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---negative if the average LFPR for 2023 is higher than the average LFPR for 2018 \n---ambiguous if they are the same to ( percentage points) \n---ambiguous if the BLS fails to publish LFPR data for any month in 2024 (including if it does not exist any more) \nMy thanks to Jgalt and Uncle Jeff for [inspiring](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/#comment-7888) this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 179,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-12-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will any prediction market cause users to lose at least $1M before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6047/1m-lost-in-prediction-market/",
@@ -52639,38 +53164,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), \nOne could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.\nFurthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).\nIf Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. \nFor example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?\nThe relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.\nReal world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.\nETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-21T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "In which month will there first be 20,000 new papers submitted to the arXiv?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/952/in-which-month-will-there-first-be-20000-new-papers-submitted-to-the-arxiv/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).\nFrom its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. \nThis question asks in which month will there first be >=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).\nShould the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.\nIf the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.\nIf this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2035\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 109,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-05-05T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-12T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "2˚C global warming by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/",
@@ -52698,162 +53191,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Yang get 200k donors or more in the 2024 US presidential race?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3689/will-yang-get-200k-donors-or-more-in-the-2024-us-presidential-race/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.15,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "[Andrew Yang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Yang) ran in the 2020 United States Democratic presidential primary. His controversial campaign platform included a $1k/month universal basic income. Despite strong grassroots support qualifying him for seven debates, he withdrew from the race after the New Hampshire primary.\nThis question will resolve positively if Andrew Yang gets at least 200,000 total unique campaign donors at any point in the 2024 United States presidential race. Otherwise, it will resolve negatively. This question is not dependent on Yang's party affiliation.\n",
- "numforecasts": 167,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T03:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In May 2013 the world reacted to a disturbing milestone: Daily averages of atmospheric carbon dioxide [hit 400 parts per million (ppm)](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2013/CO2400.html) for the first time in modern history, compared with around 250 parts per million around the time of the Industrial Revolution. Except for a one-day reprieve in late August, daily averages have been above 400 ppm [since December 2015](https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/). The milestone was [noted, analyzed, and mourned](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) by climate scientists who speculated that their children and grandchildren might never again see carbon dioxide concentrations drip below 400 ppm.\nCarbon dioxide concentration has been climbing ever since measurements began at Hawaii's [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/obop/mlo/) in 1958. And the climb is [accelerating](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html): in the 1960s and 70s, carbon dioxide concentration rose by around 1 ppm per year. Last year the concentration growth rate was 3 ppm per year.\nThe milestone of 400 ppm is mostly symbolic, but signifies that earth is rapidly approaching the 450 ppm threshold seen by [some](http://climate.nasa.gov/400ppmquotes/) as a climate stabilization target.\nThe point at which the global carbon dioxide concentration is projected to reach 500 ppm depends on which so-called \"[representative concentration pathway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathways)\" humanity follows. The scenarios range from RCP 2.6, in which CO2 emissions peak and then decline by the mid-21st centry, to RCP 8.5, in which CO2 emissions continue unabated. In the [best-case projections](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html), earth never hits 500 ppm, peaking below 450 ppm around 2050. In the worst-case scenario, 500 ppm occurs between 2040 and 2050.\nWill earth's carbon dioxide emissions follow the worst-case scenario, reaching a global carbon dioxide concentration of 500 ppm before 2050?\nFor this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html) must report a monthly carbon dioxide concentration above 500 ppm on or before December 31, 2050.\n",
- "numforecasts": 240,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-09-24T22:11:34Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T22:11:47Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3241/will-the-iau-rework-its-definition-of-planetary-status-by-jan-1-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [International Astronomical Union](https://www.iau.org/) defines a planet [1] as a celestial body that\n1--is in orbit around the Sun, \n2--is massive enough per material strength to be an ellipsoid (in hydrostatic equilibrium) and, \n3--has \"cleared the neighborhood\" around its orbit. \nA debate has emerged in the planetary sciences over whether the community should instead embrace a purely geophysical definition of a planet (a substellar body in hydrostatic equilibrium), stated in more detail here: [2]. This point of view has been gaining some traction, e.g. in Metzger et al. 2018 [3].\nThe chief concerns with the IAU's definition are that it excludes exoplanets (they do not orbit the sun), small bodies in hydrostatic equilibrium (e.g. Pluto, Ceres, Titan, Quaoar), and that \"clearing the neighborhood\" is an imprecise definition that has many caveats (e.g. coorbital bodies/quasi-satellites). There have been attempts to rigorously define orbital clearing (e.g. Margot 2015 [4]), but they have not yet been adopted by the IAU.\nThe chief concerns with the geophysical definition are that it elides dynamical concerns (which are integral to planet formation), includes ellipsoidal satellites (e.g. Titan, Triton, Ganymede) as planets, and will result in having >50 planets, with that number growing as time goes on.\nThis debate conceals a difference in methodological approach - considering whether small, ellipsoidal (currently) subplanetary bodies* are more interesting in particular (as geophysical entities, like Earth) or in aggregate (as orbital populations, like sub-ellipsoidal asteroids). These concerns are, to first order, native to planetary geoscientists and planetary astronomers/dynamicists respectively. The geophysical and IAU definitions are both used in the literature, again employed ~along subdisciplinary lines.\nThis now brings us to the question: given the ongoing debate and reality of publishing differences the planetary sciences, \nwill the IAU revise its definition of a planet before 2025?\nResolution details\nIAU's 2006 definition is:\nA “planet” is defined as a celestial body that (a) is in orbit around the Sun, (b) has sufficient mass for its self-gravity to overcome rigid body forces so that it assumes a hydrostatic equilibrium (nearly round) shape, and (c) has cleared the neighbourhood around its orbit. \nWe'll refer to this as the \"original definition\". This question resolves positively if any of the following occurs:\n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are substantially revised; or \n---Any of the Parts (a), (b) or (c) of the original definition are removed; or \n---Another part not included in the original definition is included that requires a planet to have an additional property that is not implicit in parts (a), (b) or (c). \nIf more than one of these conditions occur, the question also resolves positively. \n[1] [IAU Definition](https://www.iau.org/news/pressreleases/detail/iau0603/)\n[2] [Geophysical Definition](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/lpsc2017/eposter/1448.pdf)\n[3] [Metzger et al. 2018](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.04115)\n[4] [Margot 2015](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.06300)\n*currently characterized by the IAU as \"dwarf planets\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 75,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-27T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:01:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many parameters (in billions) is needed to achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5218/scaling-to-few-shot-human-level-performance/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5574/china-to-reach-nev-14-credit-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "China instituted the [NEV (New Energy Vehicle) mandate](https://www.iea.org/policies/3335-new-energy-vehicle-nev-mandate-policy)\n“which promotes new energy vehicles, such as electric vehicles, and provides additional compliance flexibility to existing fuel consumption regulations.”\nThis mandate applies to passenger vehicles only, and currently 60% of global car sales from China are covered by it. \nThe NEV mandate specified credit targets for 2019 (10%) and 2020 (12%), but has recently expanded targets to 2021-23 as well.\nThe International Energy Association (IEA) states that:\n“Each NEV is assigned a specific number of credits depending on metrics including electric range, energy efficiency, and rated power of fuel cell systems. Higher performance vehicles get more credits, capped at six credits per vehicle. These NEV credit targets thus may result in NEV market share falling into a range of values based on fleet mix. Assuming that all manufacturers produce vehicles with a per-vehicle NEV credit of three in 2020, for example, the market share of NEVs in China based on the number of vehicles sold would be around 4% in 2020 while still meeting the 12% target based on NEV credits.”\nChina expects an NEV credit target of [14% in 2021](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) and a 2% increase for each following year until 2023, with an ending credit of 18%. \nVehicle producers [need to hit the number of credits needed](https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-NEV-mandate_ICCT-policy-update_20032018_vF-updated.pdf) each year, either by producing or importing a set number of new energy passenger vehicles. There is also a market for these credits which can be sold and traded between companies, as well as the option to use surplus credits to offset CAFC (Corporate Average Fuel Consumption) credit deficits. \nAs credits grow, the number of electric vehicles in China’s fleet should increase and consumer adoption along with it, thereby greatly reducing the amount of carbon emissions from transportation and setting China on its path to become [carbon neutral by 2060](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/can-china-worlds-bigger-coal-consumer-become-carbon-neutral-2060).\nWill China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?\nResolution criteria will be provided through reputable sources such as the [International Energy Association](https://www.iea.org/), the [International Council of Clean Transportation](https://theicct.org/), or any other source with similar standing and background. If there is no data or resolution provided through any reports from the sources mentioned previously, then reports directly from China or the Chinese government’s [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT)](https://www.miit.gov.cn/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 40,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-11-01T20:17:49Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:16:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T20:16:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How far away will the closest known Black Hole lay in 2031?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2771/how-far-away-will-the-closest-known-black-hole-lay-in-2031/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.\nFurthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.\nThere are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. \nThough direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.\n\nHow far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?\n\n---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. \n",
- "numforecasts": 30,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-04-27T21:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4845/when-will-virtual-reality-headset-sales-exceed-10-million-units-per-year/",
@@ -52870,22 +53207,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n",
- "numforecasts": 89,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/",
@@ -52956,65 +53277,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3525/how-many-total-unique-visitors-will-download-debian-package-files-from-rosorg-in-the-year-ending-july-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.\n[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.\nHow many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.\n",
- "numforecasts": 161,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-27T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the \"silver\" Turing Test be passed by 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Loebner Prize](https://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) (mentioned in a [previous question](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/106/)) is an annual competition in artificial intelligence that awards prizes to the chatterbot considered by the judges to be the most human-like. (A \"chatterbot\" is a computer program that conducts a conversation via textual methods.)\nThe format of [the competition](http://www.aisb.org.uk/events/loebner-prize) is that of a standard Turing test. In each round, a human judge simultaneously holds textual conversations with a computer program and a human being via computer. Based upon the responses, the judge must decide which is which.\nA bronze-level prize has been awarded annually to the most human-seeming chatterbot in the competition. However, there are two one-time-only prizes that have never been awarded. The \"silver\" prize is offered for the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human and which can convince judges that the human is the computer program.\nA \"gold\" level prize awarded to the first chatterbot that judges cannot distinguish from a real human in a Turing test that includes deciphering and understanding text, visual, and auditory input.\nThis question pertains to whether or not the \"silver\" prize (text-only) will be awarded by the end of 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1139,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-02-02T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-03-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4078/what-will-the-size-of-singapores-total-foreign-workforce-be-for-the-first-month-after-2020-12-01-for-which-data-is-published/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019.\nSingapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies.\nSingapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/)\nThis question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?\nThis question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.\nIf no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.\n",
- "numforecasts": 140,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-08T18:22:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-08T17:22:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3812/will-valve-release-a-game-before-2030-with-3-in-the-title/",
@@ -53069,65 +53331,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5894/ai-safety--other-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n",
- "numforecasts": 221,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-14T13:28:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will United Launch Alliances's Vulcan rocket fly by 2023 (a.k.a. Will Elon Musk eat his hat with a side of mustard?)",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/645/will-united-launch-alliancess-vulcan-rocket-fly-by-2023-aka-will-elon-musk-eat-his-hat-with-a-side-of-mustard/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "After a stunning success with the Falcon Heavy, Elon Musk is taking aim at his rivals in the rocketry business. In a brisk back-and-forth with [on twitter](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/963076231921938432), upon the suggestion that [United Launch Alliance](https://www.ulalaunch.com) (ULA)'s upcoming [\"Vulcan\" rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vulcan_(rocket)) would be carrying payloads in the early 2020s, Musk responded:\nMaybe that plan works out, but I will seriously eat my hat with a side of mustard if that rocket flies a national security spacecraft before 2023.\nThis taunt seems calculated to help push a space race, which Musk has publicly acknowledged is a goal of his.\nWe'll play along, and ask:\nBy Jan 1 2023, will a rocket built by ULA and named Vulcan (or be the project that \"Vulcan\" is currently referring to) be launched with a spacecraft related to US (or other nation) national security? \nFor positive resolution the launch/deployment need not be successful, and \"National Security\" can be interpreted somewhat broadly.\nIn case of positive resolution we can ask a followup question as to whether Musk actually eats a hat.\n",
- "numforecasts": 190,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-02-17T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-05-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will space mining be profitable?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3728/when-will-space-mining-be-profitable/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.\nThis being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.\nWhen will a space mining company report a profit?\n---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). \n---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. \n---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. \n---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2151-01-01T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2201-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will EU Member States or the Members of the European Parliament reject the ratification of EU-Mercosur agreement in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6459/eu-mercosur-trade-deal-rejected-in-2021/",
@@ -53155,49 +53358,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.\nQuestion: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?\nResolution details:\n---Only humans in the observable universe count. \n---\"Humans\" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n",
- "numforecasts": 143,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2345-01-21T05:07:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2345-01-21T05:08:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any state impose a state-wide soda tax by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1043/will-any-state-impose-a-state-wide-soda-tax-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "For decades, a brutal war has been raging in the world of nutrition science. \nIn the 1960s and 1970s, believers that dietary fat was the enemy--whose ranks included University of Minnesota's [Ancel Keys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancel_Keys) and Harvard's [Fred Stare](https://www.statnews.com/2016/09/12/sugar-industry-harvard-research/)--sparred aggressively with those like [John Yudkin](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/wellbeing/diet/10634081/John-Yudkin-the-man-who-tried-to-warn-us-about-sugar.html) in England and Dr. [Alfred Pennington](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1848046/) (and his disciples, like Dr. Robert Atkins), who thought sugar was the far greater dietary evil.\nThe anti-fat crowd won that political battle and got enshrined the idea the \"low fat is healthy\" in monuments like the first [U.S. Dietary Guidelines](https://health.gov/dietaryguidelines/history.htm).\nNearly 40 years since those guidelines radically shifted how Americans eat, the pendulum seems to be swinging the other way. Dietary fat's witnessing something of a [renaissance](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/fat-is-back-and-premium-butter-makers-are-taking-the-cream). While dietary sugar is once again being seen as a [malign force](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBnniua6-oM).\nTo that end, policymakers and politicians are beginning to take action to restrict sugar or at least make it less palatable to consumers.\nIn the UK, a recently passed [sugar tax](http://theconversation.com/sugar-tax-what-you-need-to-know-94520) has big implications: \"From now on, drinks with a sugar content of more than 5g per 100ml will be taxed 18p per litre and 24p for drinks with 8g or more.\"\nIn Mexico, one of the most obese nations in the world, activists managed to [pass a soda tax](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/nov/03/obese-soda-sugar-tax-mexico) a few years ago.\nAnd in the U.S., cities like Berkeley have already passed similar measures. The [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/is-a-soda-tax-the-solution-to-americas-obesity-problem/2015/03/23/b6216864-ccf8-11e4-a2a7-9517a3a70506_story.html?utm_term=.3b197915d0d3) shares some key details: \nBerkeley is the first city to impose a tax and the first U.S. experiment with a tax that’s probably high enough to put a dent in consumers’ soda habits. Depending on the product, a penny-per-ounce tax can be heavy; when Coke goes on sale at my supermarket, I can buy 24 cans — 288 ounces — for about $4. A $2.88 tax would mean a 72 percent price increase. For higher-priced energy and fruit drinks, the percentage increase would be smaller. According to Lisa Powell, a professor of health policy and administration at the University of Illinois at Chicago, a penny-per-ounce tax would be about equal to a 17 percent price increase overall. She says that would result in about a 20 percent consumption decline. \nAnd then there's this [amazing research](http://drexel.edu/now/archive/2018/April/After-soda-tax-philadelphians-40-percent-less-likely-to-drink-soda-every-day/):\nAlmost immediately after the “soda tax” went into place, Philadelphians were 40 percent less likely to drink soda every day, a new Drexel University study found\nWhether or not you approve of their nutritional philosophy or tactics, the anti-sugar forces are clearly on the move, and it seems likely that more sugar taxes are in the offing.\nBut will we see a whole state (e.g. California) pass into law a tax on soda – with the explicit, written intent to disincentivize soda consumption – by Jan 1, 2025?\n",
- "numforecasts": 106,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2019-01-01T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "By 1 January 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1625/by-1-january-2050-will-it-be-possible-to-increase-a-healthy-adult-humans-iq-by-at-least-two-standard-deviations-in-less-than-30-days/",
@@ -53225,76 +53385,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Will Catalonia become an independent state?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/568/will-catalonia-become-an-independent-state/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The 1st of October 2017 saw a contentious (and according to the Spanish government, illegal) referendum on Catalan independence.\n[News reports](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalan-government-emergency-meeting-spain-independence) suggest that with a 43% turnout around 90% of ballots went for independence, amid widespread police crackdowns on voting, and confiscations of ballot boxes.\nWith talk of a unilateral declaration of independence in the air, the political future of Catalonia is unclear.\nThis question asks: \nWill Catalonia will be an independent state within 5 years of this vote? \nQuestion resolves positive if Catalonia becomes an independent state by the 1st of October 2022.\nResolution can be determined by de facto control over a large majority of the area currently making up the autonomous region of Catalonia within Spain, determined by, for example, the issuing of passports, control over borders, independent police and military.\n",
- "numforecasts": 408,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-10-05T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2018-09-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-10-02T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will ANY of the top 10 most popular baby names in the U.S. (as of 2018) still be in the top 10 in 2048?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1060/will-any-of-the-top-10-most-popular-baby-names-in-the-us-as-of-2018-still-be-in-the-top-10-in-2048/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to [Baby Center](https://www.babycenter.com/top-baby-names-2018.htm), the most popular baby names for girls in 2018 are:\n1--Emma \n2--Olivia \n3--Ava \n4--Isabella \n5--Sophia \n6--Amelia \n7--Mia \n8--Charlotte \n9--Harper \n10-Mila \nThe most popular baby names for boys are:\n1--Liam \n2--Noah \n3--Logan \n4--Oliver \n5--Mason \n6--Lucas \n7--Ethan \n8--Elijah \n9--Aiden \n10-James \nIf history is any guide, there will be a fair amout of turnover on this list 30 years from now. \nWill any of the 20 names above remain somewhere in the top 10 in 2048?\nFor the purposes of this question, we would refer to the [Social Security Administration's](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/) baby name popularity analysis.\n",
- "numforecasts": 78,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-11T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many nations will there be in the United Nations by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3619/how-many-nations-will-there-be-in-the-united-nations-by-2050/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 58,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5960/dec-2026-production-of-semiconductors/",
@@ -53338,22 +53428,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n",
- "numforecasts": 137,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-07-01T16:35:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T21:43:55.448000Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3116/what-will-the-listing-price-of-an-impossible-foods-plant-based-beef-burger-be-in-a-us-based-supermarket-in-usd-per-kilo-in-june-2022/",
@@ -53370,38 +53444,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
- "numforecasts": 188,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the next interstellar object be discovered?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \">12/31/30.\"\n",
- "numforecasts": 46,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-08T04:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/",
@@ -53429,6 +53471,178 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2536/when-will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-resolved/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 137,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-17T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-07-01T16:35:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T21:43:55.448000Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 571,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.04,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.96,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 402,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2074-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5924/sota-perplexity-on-wikitext-103-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 188,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.97,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n",
+ "numforecasts": 136,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.41,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 427,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.\nIt is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).\nThe global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].\nAs of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.\nWhen will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.\nReports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 84,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the next interstellar object be discovered?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6225/next-interstellar-object/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \">12/31/30.\"\n",
+ "numforecasts": 46,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-08T04:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will there be an openly LGBT Pope before 2050?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2619/will-there-be-an-openly-lgbt-pope-before-2050/",
@@ -53472,6 +53686,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.1,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 239,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first person that has been cryopreserved for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3331/when-will-the-first-person-that-has-been-cryopreserved-for-more-than-1-year-be-resuscitated-or-uploaded/",
@@ -53515,6 +53756,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.18,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 244,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "How many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch in the U.S., on average per year, over the 2028 to 2030 period?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3324/how-many-billions-of-broiler-type-chicks-will-hatch-in-the-us-on-average-per-year-over-the-2028-to-2030-period/",
@@ -53532,31 +53800,20 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/",
+ "title": "If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 242,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 114,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-25T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T23:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will Tom Brady retire when his current contract is up?",
@@ -53585,6 +53842,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 47,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:56:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:56:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/",
@@ -53617,6 +53890,65 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 124,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-07-02T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-30T11:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.92,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 369,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 227,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita in the US in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3806/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-be-the-yearly-co2-emissions-per-capita-in-the-us-in-2024/",
@@ -53634,31 +53966,20 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/",
+ "title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6164/number-of-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "According to a [Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/38_of_voters_think_biden_has_dementia) 38% of likely voters believe that Joe Biden is suffering from some form of dementia, including 20% of Democrats. Evidence for dementia has come from his age and various recorded instances of Biden misremembering details or misspeaking. At 77 years old, if elected, Joe Biden will be the oldest president during inauguration in United States history.\nFrom [a Washington Post editorial](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/12/its-fair-speculate-whether-biden-is-mentally-fit-be-president/),\nThere is plenty of cause for concern. Biden recently announced “I think we can win back the House” and promised to ban the “AR-14.” He mistook Super Tuesday for “Super Thursday,” and forgot the words of the Declaration of Independence, saying “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.” In South Carolina, he misstated what office he was running for, declaring “My name’s Joe Biden. I’m a Democratic candidate for the United States Senate.” On three occasions last month, Biden declared he was arrested in South Africa trying to visit Nelson Mandela in prison — an incident his campaign later admitted never happened. He earlier described meeting a Navy captain in Afghanistan, but The Post reported that “almost every detail in the story appears to be incorrect.” He claimed to have worked with Chinese leader “Deng Xiaoping” on the Paris Climate Accord (Deng died in 1997)/. He claimed during a debate that “150 million people have been killed [by guns] since 2007” (which would be nearly half the U.S. population). He said he met with Parkland victims while he was vice president even though the shooting took place after he left office. He has declared that Democrats should \"choose truth over facts” and that “poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.” He pledged to use biofuels to power “steamships.” He repeatedly gets confused about what state he is in; called “Fox News Sunday” anchor Chris Wallace “Chuck”; said his late son Beau “was the attorney general of the United States”; and confused former British prime minister Theresa May with the late British prime minister Margaret Thatcher.\nSome, however, have argued that his cognitive decline is overstated. In December 2019, Biden's doctor released [a statement](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-is-a-healthy-vigorous-77-year-old-male-his-doctor-declared/2019/12/17/c9d3b3e8-20f5-11ea-bed5-880264cc91a9_story.html) saying that Biden was a \"healthy, vigorous’ 77-year-old fully capable of taking on the role of president.\" Others have pointed to [Biden's stutter](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) as the primary explanation for his gaffes, rather than age-related cognitive decline. \nAt one press conference, Biden [said to a reporter](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/505562-biden-must-release-results-of-his-cognitive-decline-tests-voters-need-to), \"I’ve been tested. I’ve been tested constantly. [...] I can hardly wait to compare my cognitive capability to the cognitive capability of the man I’m running against.\"\nThis question asks, will an announcement be made before January 1st 2023 that Joe Biden received an official diagnosis of some form of dementia?\nResolution is determined by credible media reports, including in the case the announcement is post mortem.\n",
- "numforecasts": 571,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 86,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-06T19:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-01-16T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T11:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by start of 2035?",
@@ -53714,6 +54035,38 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 277,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will we have micropayments?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking\nWhere are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?\nand lamenting:\nOf course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.\nI've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just \"micropayments fail over and over.\" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:\nWhen will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?\nThe question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a \"wallet\" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 79,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-29T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-03-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/",
@@ -53730,6 +54083,76 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 258,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.21,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.79,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 196,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.85,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 200,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will another Millennium Prize Problem be solved in the next decade?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/",
@@ -53785,29 +54208,29 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "One Million Martian Residents by 2075?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/",
+ "title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.96,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "In a [tweet session on 2020-01-16](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217986505513172992), Elon Musk laid out some of his plans for [Starship](https://www.spacex.com/starship) production, and they're characteristically ambitious. One astute twitter follower noted that given the number of Starships and frequency of launches he's planning, we can infer the size of the Martian population for which he's planning: [1 million by 2050](https://twitter.com/PRANSHUAGARWA13/status/1217990854234632193). Musk [summarily affirmed](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217990910052458497) that estimate.\nLike most of Musk's predictions, this timeline seems too ambitious to be realized. [Corrected to Musk Years](https://aaboyles.github.io/Essays/portfolio/ElonMuskForecastCorrectionFunction.html), a million-Martian population is more likely to exist by spring of 2074. My question is simple: Will it? More specifically, Will the population of living, biological humans residing on Mars be greater than or equal to one million before 2075-01-01?\nSome specifics:\n---Humans born on Mars or born en route to Mars (if that's [even possible within the prediction window](https://sci-hub.tw/https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13669-017-0193-3)) do count towards the total (though it seems unlikely this is a major source of population growth in Musk's model). \n---Humans who die on Mars or en route to Mars prior to the closing date do not count towards the total. \n---Humans who leave Mars do not count towards the total, unless they return to Mars prior to the resolution date. \n---This should be resolved according to a credible estimate by any institution suited to evaluate the population sizes of Martian colonies. Some possible such institutions are: the government(s) of any Martian colony(s), SpaceX or any other corporate entities with commercial ventures to/on Mars, any concerned political institutions such as the United Nations or the World Health Organization, any non-government organization with an interest in the demography of Mars. \n---Such entities must estimate the size of the Martian population prior to Earth Year 2075 C.E. Stated differently, population estimates capable of resolving this question may be published in or after 2075, so long as the population estimates are given for 2074 (or earlier, if the one million threshold is met earlier). \n---Any credible estimate of a Martian population in excess of one million humans prior to the end of 2074 will cause this question to retroactively close one year prior to the estimate's publication date. \n",
- "numforecasts": 402,
+ "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 83,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2074-01-01T04:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T04:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -53827,6 +54250,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 206,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will AES-256 be publicly broken by 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6356/aes-256-broken-by-2040/",
@@ -53861,17 +54311,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.84,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "A hemispherectomy [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemispherectomy)\na very rare neurosurgical procedure in which a cerebral hemisphere (half of the brain) is removed, disconnected, or disabled. This procedure is used to treat a variety of seizure disorders where the source of the epilepsy is localized to a broad area of a single hemisphere of the brain, notably Rasmussen's encephalitis. [...]\nBecause of the dramatic alteration of brain composition and the inherent risk that hemispherectomies pose, there are criteria that must be met in order for a person to qualify for the procedure. Criteria include no successful control of seizures throughout a variety of drug trials, and a reasonable to high chance of procedural success.\nOne such predictor of success is often the age of the patient. This procedure is almost exclusively performed in children because their brains generally display more neuroplasticity, allowing neurons from the remaining hemisphere to take over the tasks from the lost hemisphere. [...]\nThe success of the procedure is not, however, limited to children. A study in 2007 indicated the long-term efficacy of anatomic hemispherectomy in carefully selected adults, with seizure control sustainable over multiple decades. A case study published in 2015 of 2 adults aged 48 and 38 demonstrated the success of functional hemispherectomy in treating status epilepticus (SE), an epileptic condition in which seizures are prolonged or occur closely together. In 2012, a case study following 30 individuals having undergone some form of hemispherectomy in adulthood found that 81% of individuals were seizure free post-procedure. Furthermore, almost all participating patients reported improved quality of life. The conclusion: “adult patients do not have to expect more problems with new deficits, appear to cope quite well, and most profit from surgery in several quality of life domains.”\nWhile hemispherectomies are generally reserved as a treatment for extreme cases of seizure disorders, they could conceivably aid in life extension as well. In particular, a patient could voluntarily receive a hemispherectomy in order to [cryopreserve](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryopreservation) and put their brain in long-term storage while they are still living, thereby increasing the probability that their personality and identity are stored in some sort of medium, persisting into the future.\nSo far as I can tell, a hemispherectomy performed for the purpose of life extension is purely hypothetical. Furthermore, there are few to no current online resources about this possibility (besides this one).\nThis question asks, will someone report to have received a hemispherectomy for the purpose of life extension before 2100? \nHere the resolution is determined by the conjunction of three actions, performed by an individual human:\n--- \nThey received a hemispherectomy voluntarily.\n--- \nHalf of their brain was placed in long-term cryopreservation while they were still legally alive. \n--- \nThey reported in some credible source (such as through a media outlet, or via a forum with strong evidence of credibility) that the procedure was done primarily for the purpose of extending their life.\n",
- "numforecasts": 38,
+ "numforecasts": 39,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-08-16T07:00:00Z",
@@ -53913,40 +54363,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.97,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The United Kingdom (UK) famously voted to leave the European Union in 2015 with a surprise leave vote ([Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit)). It was legally set in motion in 2019 by Conservative prime minister Boris Johnson:\nBrexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau of \"British\" and \"exit\") is the withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU). Following a UK-wide referendum in June 2016, in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the UK Government which was then led by Theresa May formally declared the country's withdrawal on 29 March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. The withdrawal was originally scheduled for 29 March 2019 but was then delayed by deadlock in the UK Parliament after the June 2017 general election resulted in an unexpected hung parliament, which then led to three subsequent extensions of the Article 50 process. The deadlock was only resolved after a subsequent general election was held in December 2019. Following the outcome, the UK Parliament finally ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. This began a transition period that is set to end on 31 December 2020, during which the UK and EU are negotiating their future relationship.[2] The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.[3][4] \nHowever, there seems to be nothing preventing a new government from having the UK rejoin the union. In fact, [various](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/02/britain-brexit-rejoin-eu-boris-johnson/606190/) [people](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/01/23/membership-2-0-what-the-uk-rejoining-the-eu-would-involve/) [have](https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/should-we-rejoin-the-eu-now-brexit-will-hutton-patience-wheatcroft) [written](https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) on this [already](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-rejoin-future-uk-leave-countries-a9308081.html), [even predicting it will happen in \"a decade's time\"](https://www.politico.eu/article/how-britain-rejoins-the-eu-in-a-decades-time/). The question is: Will the UK rejoin the European Union before 2030?\n--- \nResolves positively if the future UK government and parliament legally rejoins the union.\n--- \nIf the EU ceases to exist before resolution, this question resolves negatively\n--- \nIf the EU changes its name or function, and the UK rejoins this new body, the question resolves positively\n",
- "numforecasts": 136,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "If there is an artificial intelligence catastrophe this century, when will it happen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n",
- "numforecasts": 150,
+ "numforecasts": 151,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
@@ -53957,31 +54380,20 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3159/will-wework-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-1-january-2025/",
+ "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.41,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5900000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "WeWork (officially \"The We Company\") is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups, and services for other enterprises. Founded in 2010, it is headquartered in New York City. [As of 2018, WeWork manages 46.63 million square feet of commercial real estate.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/wework-surpasses-jpmorgan-as-biggest-occupier-of-manhattan-office-space-1537268401) \n[In 2019, WeWork attempted to go public in an IPO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WeWork#2019), seeking a [valuation as high as $47 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/weworks-nightmare-ipo?r=US&IR=T) However, [concerns about corporate governance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-corporate-governance-nightmare-204330915.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIrC3q_C9YN2lZ0eRlApJAfGJnNEtpzzX2iJy7AodPkGkJY6O1FFMOhHk30lBFqBx2vfPE_rSu4VEDsDgjx8kv2bSDcHiPCLBkWjb0lr60rvFU5Knzj8nQWEyoqznhMfmlDWDfonPEi_NRsW7yycUOq9DmU4tOMSC9Td2xdsyIkt) and the company's [$47 billion in lease obligations](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-02/wework-ipo-lease-obligations-and-an-ugly-balance-sheet) led to a dramatic reduction in the company's proposed IPO valuation, which fell [to as low as $10 billion.](https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-wework-ipo-valuation-exclusive/exclusive-wework-considers-ipo-valuation-of-as-low-as-10-billion-sources-idUKKCN1VY1PE) Additionally, [the CEO of the company resigned at the request of existing investors.](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/24/20882034/wework-ceo-adam-neumann-stepping-down-chairman) [Ultimately, the company filed to withdraw its IPO prospectus.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-30/wework-withdraws-ipo-prospectus-as-new-co-ceos-delay-offering)\nThe company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/25/business/dealbook/wework-loss-billion.html)\nThis question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 423,
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nBut when?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 85,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-04T23:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-08-27T04:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
},
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
"title": "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?",
@@ -54010,6 +54422,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.34,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 57,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/",
@@ -54027,21 +54466,80 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "When will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue from edible insect product sales alone, in a single year?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3375/when-will-a-company-in-any-country-generate-50m-revenue-from-edible-insect-product-sales-alone-in-a-single-year/",
+ "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.\nIt is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).\nThe global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].\nAs of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.\nWhen will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.\nReports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.\n",
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2020?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2020 US$.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 121,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-29T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.\nThere are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.\nThe landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.\nResolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 128,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-10T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3437/philpapers-survey-mini-series-is-mind-uploading-thought-to-amount-to-death/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nMind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind. \nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):\nA considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their \"biological shell\". \nHowever, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, \"uploading\" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
"numforecasts": 84,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-12-28T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2045-01-01T00:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.95,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\nPast studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 115,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/",
@@ -54058,6 +54556,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will the Universe end?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.8,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n",
+ "numforecasts": 574,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1532/what-is-the-chandra-x-ray-observatorys-remaining-lifespan/",
@@ -54117,33 +54642,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.1,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) \nThere are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. \nSome identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. \nSome nations are beginning to promulgate legal regimes for extraterrestrial resource extraction. For example, the United States \"SPACE Act of 2015,\" facilitating private development of space resources consistent with US international treaty obligations, passed the US House of Representatives in July 2015. In November 2015 it passed the United States Senate.\nOn 25 November, US President Barack Obama signed the H.R.2262 – U.S. Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act into law. The law recognizes the right of U.S. citizens to own space resources they obtain and encourages the commercial exploration and utilization of resources from asteroids. \nAccording to the article § 51303 of the law: \"A United States citizen engaged in commercial recovery of an asteroid resource or a space resource under this chapter shall be entitled to any asteroid resource or space resource obtained, including to possess, own, transport, use, and sell the asteroid resource or space resource obtained in accordance with applicable law, including the international obligations of the United States.\" \nIn February 2016, the Government of Luxembourg announced that it would attempt to \"jump-start an industrial sector to mine asteroid resources in space\" by, among other things, creating a \"legal framework\" and regulatory incentives for companies involved in the industry. By June 2016, it announced that it would \"invest more than US$200 million in research, technology demonstration, and in the direct purchase of equity in companies relocating to Luxembourg.\" In 2017, it became the \"first European country to pass a law conferring to companies the ownership of any resources they extract from space\", and remained active in advancing space resource public policy in 2018.\n[Some](https://www.rt.com/business/424800-first-trillionaire-space-miner/) [have suggested](https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/30/1314279/0/en/Physicist-Says-Asteroid-Mining-Ventures-Will-Spawn-First-Trillionaire.html) [that the first trillionaire(s) will be created by the space mining industry.](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5691677/Want-trillionaire-asteroids.html)\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2030, will at least 100kg of resources be harvested primarily for commercial purposes from any asteroid or comet while it is in space?\nResolves positively in the event that a press release is issued by any corporation or other group claiming success in this endeavour, or when credible media reports indictate it has occurred. \nResources mined from asteroids or comets after impact with Earth or any other planetary-mass body do not count for purposes of this question. 'Commercial purposes' includes (inter alia) exclusive use by the mining company or sale on commercial terms (e.g. not a nominal $1 payment) to any third party (for any purpose, including scientific analysis), but excludes purely scientific missions launched by public or private bodies with the sole goal of performing scientific analysis on material samples.\n",
- "numforecasts": 239,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "If Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5126/if-trump-is-not-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/",
@@ -54246,38 +54744,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2812/if-a-whole-human-brain-is-successfully-emulated-by-2100-what-is-the-maximum-number-of-humans-that-will-be-uploaded-in-any-5-year-period/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n",
- "numforecasts": 114,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2036-12-31T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will the US-Canada border reopen?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5208/us-canada-border/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n",
- "numforecasts": 403,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-09-04T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T12:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-09-06T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/",
@@ -54402,7 +54868,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nPlant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk.\nHow much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: almond milk, soy milk, coconut milk, rice milk, oat milk, and other plant-based milks and blends.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $1.6b in 2017, $1.8b in 2018, $1.9b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is substantially different or not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that the estimate is likely the estimate follows an estimation method that is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n",
- "numforecasts": 91,
+ "numforecasts": 94,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z",
@@ -54439,6 +54905,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n",
+ "numforecasts": 187,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1497/will-the-eventual-consensus-explanation-of-star-kic-8462852-variability-be-an-intervening-molecular-cloud/",
@@ -54482,22 +54975,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5043/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n",
- "numforecasts": 47,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:56:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:56:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "50% Carbon-neutral electricity by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/273/50-carbon-neutral-electricity-by-2025/",
@@ -54655,21 +55132,48 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/",
+ "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 124,
+ "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 127,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-07-02T22:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-30T11:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.43,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite))\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 119,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/",
@@ -54697,6 +55201,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a technology replace screens?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n",
+ "numforecasts": 108,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/",
@@ -54729,6 +55249,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.7,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 716,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "A decrease in US meat production by 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/281/a-decrease-in-us-meat-production-by-2025/",
@@ -55015,48 +55562,32 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/",
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.08,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day.\n[Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/):\nAccording to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market.\nThe question is: can we do this?\nKurzgesagt (a.k.a. \"in a nutshell\") explores the state of affairs in [this entertaining video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kxqnCwMvEpg)\nHere are some of the problems with this plan. Problems which engineers and scientists may never be able to overcome:\n---Maybe we'll never make a material [strong enough](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/) to support the space elevator. \n---Maybe [terrorists](https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/20311/how-to-protect-a-space-elevator-against-terrorism) will attack any elevator that we build. \n---Maybe we'll never get the [costs of construction/maintenance](https://www.quora.com/How-much-money-would-it-cost-to-make-a-space-elevator-including-R-D) down. \n---Maybe one or more [space elevator disasters](http://www.niac.usra.edu/files/studies/final_report/472Edwards.pdf) will fling debris into orbit or crash down on a populated area, turning the population against the process. \n---Maybe rocket engineers will build on the successes of companies like [Space X](https://www.popsci.com/spacexs-falcon-heavy-launch-was-joyful-success), and there will therefore never be enough political or economic pressure to incentivize construction of an elevator. \nWhat do you think? Will we or our descendants overcome these [obstacles](http://sploid.gizmodo.com/how-would-a-real-space-elevator-work-and-is-it-even-pos-1769925946) and others unforeseen?\nQuestion resolves positive if a working space elevator is constructed on Earth by 2100 and maintained in operation for at least a year.\n",
- "numforecasts": 369,
+ "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 1368,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-05-21T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2031-04-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5904/image-classification-index-2021-06-14/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100. \n",
- "numforecasts": 227,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5242/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2020-q4/",
@@ -55121,22 +55652,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6164/number-of-covid-deaths-if-50-vaccinated/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n",
- "numforecasts": 86,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-06T19:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-01-16T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3290/what-fraction-of-babies-born-in-the-us-in-2029-will-have-been-conceived-in-vitro/",
@@ -55196,22 +55711,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1482/what-percentage-of-americans-will-be-considered-obese-or-overweight-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?\n",
- "numforecasts": 277,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Will US life expectancy at birth for both sexes fall below 75 years before 2040?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4616/will-us-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-fall-below-75-years-before-2040/",
@@ -55239,29 +55738,13 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will we have micropayments?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2592/when-will-we-have-micropayments/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking\nWhere are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?\nand lamenting:\nOf course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.\nI've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just \"micropayments fail over and over.\" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:\nWhen will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?\nThe question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a \"wallet\" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.\n",
- "numforecasts": 79,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-29T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What will SpaceX be worth by 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n",
- "numforecasts": 406,
+ "numforecasts": 407,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z",
@@ -55303,76 +55786,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n",
- "numforecasts": 258,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.21,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.79,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The invention of nuclear weapons gave humanity the technical capacity to cause devastation on a hitherto unseen scale. Although there have been no nuclear attacks since the Second World War, we have come close to inadvertent and intentional nuclear war on a number of occasions.\nThe Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two nuclear superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict. U.S. president John F. Kennedy estimated the odds of nuclear war at \"somewhere between one out of three and even\". \nTwenty events that might be considered ‘near-miss’ incidents – incidents that could potentially have resulted in unintended nuclear detonation or explosion – [have been reported in declassified documents](https://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/). There are potentially more ‘near-misses’ that have remained classified and concealed. Moreover, most of these incidents on our timeline were reported by US sources, and there is no reason to believe that the opposing superpower had fewer incidents, or that there have been zero incidents in China, the UK, France, Israel, India, Pakistan or North Korea. \nCurrently, there are [an estimated total of 14,185 nuclear weapons](https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report) in existence, of which russia and the USA possess 13400. The remained is divided between (in descending order of number of weapons possessed) France, China, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea.\nAlthough tensions between the US and Russia have eased somewhat since the Cold War the geopolitical situation could become more unstable over the next few decades. Another possible intentional nuclear war is between India and Pakistan. The two countries have gone to war four times since then, in 1947, 1965, 1974 and 1999, and have been on the brink of war as recently as 2008. Pakistan has pledged to meet any Indian attack on its territory with a retaliatory nuclear strike. Most recently, the world has witnessed displays of brinkmanship by North Korea and the US with explicit threats of nuclear warfare.\nAlthough initial effects from such a nuclear exchange would be horrible, the after-effects could be worse. A nuclear exchange could cause a [nuclear winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter) – a release of black carbon into the atmosphere. [According to some studies](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013EF000205), this would result in the blocking the Sun’s thermal energy, and lowering temperatures regionally and globally for several years, opening up new holes in the ozone layer protecting the Earth from harmful radiation, reducing global precipitation by about 10%, triggering crop failures, and resulting in widespread food shortages\n[Recent calculations](https://academic.oup.com/isr/article/6/4/135/1826263) of the dust, particulates and smoke thrust into the atmosphere by as few as 100 nuclear weapons indicate that even a regional war could have major impact on the planet’s atmosphere and climate.\nThe fact that we’ve never had a mass-casualty accidental nuclear detonation or explosion might suggest that some estimates of the odds of nuclear war –such as John F. Kennedy’s– are too gloomy. [Others have pointed out that the strength of this evidence is perhaps surprisingly weak](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/W6-Observer-selection-effects.pdf): if nuclear war removes many observers, then realizations of world history we see are unlikely to have included nuclear war. Hence observers in surviving worlds will see the world to be much safer than it actually is. \nIn the [headline question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/) to this series, I defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years.\nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of nuclear weapons?\nThe question resolves positively if a global nuclear catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no such global catastrophe happens.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 196,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.85,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.15000000000000002,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "During his Farewell Address George Washington set the precedent of only pursuing two terms, a tradition that was set in stone by Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe, who all publicly embraced the principle.\nFrom then on the presidents mostly adhered to this tradition. \nThe first deviation came at the hands of Ulysses S. Grant, who sought to serve a third term in 1880, though that was eleven years after he had left the oval office. A more serious case was Theodore Roosevelt. President William McKinley was assassinated still in the first year of his second term and Vice President Roosevelt had to take over. He forewent a consecutive third term, since he felt term limits were a good check on dictatorships, being succeeded by William H. Taft. But due to his dissatisfaction with President Taft’s political acumen Roosevelt sought a third term for the 1912 election, heading the Progressive Party, thus once more straining the traditional two term limits, but due to his defeat at the hands of Woodrow Wilson the tradition remained true.\nCalvin Coolidge, following the sudden death of his predecessor Warren G. Harding in August 1923, was confirmed in the 1924 election, but then [chose not to run](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_choose_to_run), later on citing 10 years in Washington would be too long for any man.\nOnly when Franklin D. Roosevelt took over the helm was the tradition broken. Buoyed by his success in dealing with the Great Depression and trusting only his own political experience in dealing with the Nazis currently sweeping through Western Europe, he sought and won a third term in 1940. Despite being aware of his ailing health, he also sought and won a fourth consecutive term, but considered resigning once the war was over. Three months into his fourth term his health declined rapidly and he died, making place for his Vice President Harry S. Truman.\nTruman took office the remaining almost full term and was reelected in 1948. In 1951 the 22nd Amendment was ratified, which would have rendered him ineligible for the 1952 election, were it not for the grandfather clause. He seriously considered running for the 1952 election, but his advisers managed to talk him out of it, citing Truman’s age and bad polling.\nOnly Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson forewent a term they were eligible for. Thus we ask if this will happen again.\n\nWill a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?\n\nResolves positive if a sitting President of the United States decides not to seek nor accept the nomination of any party for another eligible term’s election, nor try to run on their own, before the 2080 presidential election.\nResolves ambiguous if the US political system changes significantly from the current political system (federal presidential constitutional republic).\n",
- "numforecasts": 200,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2056-11-09T05:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2080-11-01T05:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Hutter Prize: At the end of 2022, what will be the best bits-per-character compression of a 1GB sample of Wikipedia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3723/hutter-prize-at-the-end-of-2022-what-will-be-the-best-bits-per-character-compression-of-a-1gb-sample-of-wikipedia/",
@@ -55491,33 +55904,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will a third LIGO detector be built in India by 2027?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1536/will-a-third-ligo-detector-be-built-in-india-by-2027/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The [Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/) (LIGO) has been responsible for some tremendously exciting science this decade.\n---On [September 14, 2015](https://www.ligo.caltech.edu/news/ligo20160211), LIGO detected (through gravitational waves) the merger of two black holes billions of light years away. \n---This triumph opened a new era of [gravitational wave astronomy](https://www.space.com/39162-gravitational-waves-new-era-of-astronomy-2017.html), giving us a radical new tool to probe the cosmos. \n---LIGO and friends (like VIRGO in Europe) have since seen other black hole mash-ups and even, amazingly, the smashing of [2 neutron stars](https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/16/557557544/astronomers-strike-gravitational-gold-in-colliding-neutron-stars). \n---The engineering required to make this observatory hop is [just ridiculous](http://www.kavlifoundation.org/how-ligo-works). \nHowever, per astrophysicist Ethan Siegel, LIGO [misses ~100,000 black hole mergers every year](https://medium.com/starts-with-a-bang/ligo-misses-100-000-black-hole-mergers-a-year-d3184f5d193a). Whoa! \nWe need backup, apparently!\nWell, help may soon be on the way, in the form of another LIGO detector under construction in India. [LIGO-India](http://www.gw-indigo.org/tiki-index.php?page=LIGO-India) \"is a planned advanced gravitational-wave observatory to be located in India as part of the worldwide network.\" Possible benefits include:\nAdding a new detector to the existing network will increase the expected event rates, and will boost the detection confidence of new sources (by increasing the sensitivity, sky coverage and duty cycle of the network). But the dramatic improvement from LIGO-India would come in the ability of localizing GW sources in the sky. Sky-location of the GW sources is computed by combining data from geographically separated detectors ('aperture synthesis'). Adding a new detector in India, geographically well separated from the existing LIGO-Virgo detector array, will dramatically improve the source-localization accuracies (5 to 10 times), thus enabling us to use GW observations as an excellent astronomical tool.\nLIGO-India is set to be built [by 2025](https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/technology/a-new-ligo-gravitational-wave-detector-to-be-built-in-india-by-2025/article22149855.ece). That's 2 years before our question's deadline. But delays on massive science projects happen with some frequency. (Ahem, [Elon Musk](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2018/06/06/elon-musk-has-been-missing-deadlines-since-he-was-a-kid/). Ahem, [James Webb Telescope](https://www.space.com/41016-nasa-delays-james-webb-space-telescope-2021.html).)\nCan the LIGO-India team make their deadline (given a 2 year fudge factor) and get their LIGO operational (defined taking test data demonstrating a sensitivity within a factor of 10 of the instrument's specified sensitivity) by 12/31/27?\n",
- "numforecasts": 83,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-08T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2023-07-01T04:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/",
@@ -55561,6 +55947,49 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2021.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-26T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-09-01T19:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.49,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.51,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 127,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2024-11-11T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will India become a World Bank high-income country?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2582/when-will-india-become-a-world-bank-high-income-country/",
@@ -55578,45 +56007,29 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what latitude will it start in?\nLatitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)\n",
- "numforecasts": 56,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2049-12-30T11:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T11:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Does P = NP? Informally: If the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem be easy to solve?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1408/does-p--np-informally-if-the-solution-to-a-problem-is-easy-to-check-for-correctness-must-the-problem-be-easy-to-solve/",
+ "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "P vs. NP is one of the most famous and important problems in computer science. Informally: if the solution to a problem is easy to check for correctness, must the problem also be easy to solve? Aside from being an important problem in computational theory, a proof either way would have profound implications for mathematics, cryptography, algorithm research, artificial intelligence, game theory, multimedia processing, philosophy, economics and many other fields. The problem was included in [the Millennium Prize Problems list published by Clay Mathematics Institute](http://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/p-vs-np-problem), the solutions to which will be awarded 1 million $ prize.\nA good introduction to the problem is [YouTube video \"P vs. NP and the Computational Complexity Zoo\" by hackerdashery.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YX40hbAHx3s)\nThe question asks: \nIF the Millennium Prize is awarded for providing a correct proof during this century, will P = NP? \nIf no award is given during this century the question will resolve ambiguously. The question will resolve ambiguously also if the problem is proven to not have a solution either way, e.g. if the problem will turn out to be unprovable or undecidable. If resolution is positive, the close date will be set retroactively to the date of complete initial publication (in journal or preprint form) of the proof, plus one year (or one day before the date of announcement of the prize, if that comes earlier.)\nAs some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of the problem.](http://www.win.tue.nl/~gwoegi/P-versus-NP.htm) As of 2018, the list contains 62 purported proofs of P = NP, 50 of P ≠ NP, 2 proofs the problem is unprovable, and one proof that it is undecidable. [William I. Gasarch asked 100 various theorists the question whether P = NP.](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~gasarch/papers/poll.pdf) The result are as follows:\n1--61 thought P≠NP. \n2--9 thought P=NP. \n3--4 thought that it is independent. \n4--3 just stated that it is NOT independent of Primitive Recursive Arithmetic. \n5--1 said it would depend on the model. \n6--22 offered no opinion. \n",
- "numforecasts": 206,
+ "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 159,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-09-07T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -55626,7 +56039,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n",
- "numforecasts": 254,
+ "numforecasts": 259,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z",
@@ -55636,33 +56049,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.4,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n",
- "numforecasts": 70,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4251/lrt-22-as-of-monday-april-27th-how-many-total-cumulative-sars-cov-2-infections-including-all-symptomatic-subclinical-and-asymptomatic-infections-have-there-been-in-the-us/",
@@ -55722,22 +56108,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nBut when?\n",
- "numforecasts": 85,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-08-27T04:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "Tunnel vs. Wall",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/445/tunnel-vs-wall/",
@@ -55868,29 +56238,29 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
{
- "title": "Will the global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be in line with the pathway to limit warming to 2.0°C by mid-century, over the 2024 to 2027 period?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3742/will-the-global-atmospheric-co%25E2%2582%2582-concentration-be-in-line-with-the-pathway-to-limit-warming-to-20c-by-mid-century-over-the-2024-to-2027-period/",
+ "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.34,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6599999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nThe Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 corresponds to a high greenhouse gas emissions pathway compared to the scenario literature [(IPCC 2008)](https://www.ipcc.ch/publication/ipcc-expert-meeting-report-towards-new-scenarios-for-analysis-of-emissions-climate-change-impacts-and-response-strategies/). The RCP8.5 is a so-called ‘baseline’ scenario that does not include any specific climate mitigation target. It combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. \nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 2.0°C with a likely range of 1.4°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 3.7°C with a likely range of 2.6°C to 4.8°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP8.5 corresponds to an average of 426.63 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to and average of 440.01 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration per year (ibid.).\nWill the average global CO₂ atmospheric concentration be less than 433.19 ppm over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if the arithmetic mean of the annual mean CO₂ concentration over the 2024 to 2027 period (inclusive) is less than or equal to 433.19 ppm, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n--- \n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n--- \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\n",
- "numforecasts": 57,
+ "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 118,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-02-29T20:43:28.148000Z",
+ "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-30T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -56206,22 +56576,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2020?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2020 US$.\n",
- "numforecasts": 121,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-29T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-12-31T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5051/what-percentage-of-absentee-ballots-will-be-rejected-in-the-2020-us-election/",
@@ -56238,38 +56592,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.\nThere are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.\nThe landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.\nResolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.\n",
- "numforecasts": 128,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-10T00:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "PhilPapers survey mini-series: Is mind uploading thought to amount to death?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3437/philpapers-survey-mini-series-is-mind-uploading-thought-to-amount-to-death/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nMind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind. \nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):\nA considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their \"biological shell\". \nHowever, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, \"uploading\" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n",
- "numforecasts": 84,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-12-28T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-07-31T22:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T22:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/",
@@ -56286,6 +56608,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are \"low-hanging fruit\": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.\nOne way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.\nWhen will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?\n---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. \n---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. \n---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). \n---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. \n---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. \n---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. \n---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. \nETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 60,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-06-17T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2067-01-02T01:03:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:03:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/",
@@ -56313,33 +56651,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\n[An informal survey at the 2008 Oxford Global Catastrophic Risk Conference](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) asked participants to estimate the chance that disasters of different types would occur before 2100. Participants had a median risk estimate of 0.05% that a natural pandemic would lead to human extinction by 2100, and a median risk estimate of 2% that an “engineered” pandemic would lead to extinction by 2100.\nMoreover, previous literature has found that casualty numbers from terrorism and warfare follow a power law distribution, including terrorism from WMDs. [Millett and Snyder-Beattie](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5576214/) have performed a naive power law extrapolation to estimate the chance of an existential biological disaster:\nPast studies have estimated this ratio for terrorism using biological and chemical weapons to be about 0.5 for 1 order of magnitude, meaning that an attack that kills people is about 3 times less likely () than an attack that kills people (a concrete example is that attacks with more than 1,000 casualties, such as the Aum Shinrikyo attacks, will be about 30 times less probable than an attack that kills a single individual). Extrapolating the power law out, we find that the probability that an attack kills more than 5 billion will be or 0.000014. Assuming 1 attack per year (extrapolated on the current rate of bio-attacks) and assuming that only 10% of such attacks that kill more than 5 billion eventually lead to extinction (due to the breakdown of society, or other knock-on effects), we get an annual existential risk of 0.0000014 (or ).\nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that a biological global catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a global biological catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population. The question resolves ambiguous if a global biological catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a global biological catastrophe failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. \nA biological catastrophe is here defined as a catastrophe resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100. Moreover, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
- "numforecasts": 115,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "When will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for 24-hours, before Sep 15 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3106/when-will-a-discernible-coordinated-bitcoin-mining-pool-attain-50-of-the-hashing-power-for-24-hours-before-sep-15-2025/",
@@ -56356,22 +56667,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will a genetic change cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n",
- "numforecasts": 92,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-10-03T20:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will there be an easily applied, reversible, male contraceptive (aka a male \"pill\") on the US market?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/507/when-will-there-be-a-reversible-male-contraceptive-aka-a-male-pill-on-the-us-market/",
@@ -56538,6 +56833,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
+ {
+ "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
+ "numforecasts": 214,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "When will Disneyland reopen?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4116/when-will-disneyland-reopen/",
@@ -56597,49 +56908,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-05T09:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2060-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Will the Universe end?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/161/will-the-universe-end/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.8,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.19999999999999996,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Warning: you're not going to win or lose any points on this one.\nThe question of whether the world will end is a perennial one, with The End sometimes forecast to come within a human lifetime or two. This is an ultra-important question, but not the biggest possible one: we can widen our question to whether \"The Universe\" will end. \nEven posing this question is not very straightforward, as \"The Universe\" has come to mean a great variety of things, from the observable universe that we see through telescopes, all the way through various types of [multiverses](http://www.britannica.com/science/multiverse). So let's start with some definitions.\nWhen we view a particular epoch of the universe through electromagnetic (and now gravitational!) radiation, we are seeing a two-dimensional sphere that we can think of as the \"sky\" at some \"distance.\" Assembling these nested spheres back to around the [nucleosynthesis era](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_nucleosynthesis) era gives a ball of about [46.5 billion light years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe) in radius. This [\"observiball\"](http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19373118) can also be thought of as a past [\"lightcone,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_cone) and this lightcone and its interior constitute a [3+1 dimensional spacetime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spacetime) region containing every post-nucleosynthesis event that occurred to our past from which information can have reached us traveling at the speed of light or less.\nTurning this around to look into the future, we can consider the \"Affectiball,\" or future lightcone, which bounds the region of spacetime that we, here and now on Earth, could reach with sub-lightspeed travel or signaling. Assuming that no future technology allows faster-than-light information transfer (or at least does so only within regions of spacetime [pre-engineered](http://www.physics.uofl.edu/wkomp/teaching/spring2006/589/final/wormholes.pdf) for this purposed), everything humanity will ever do or cause will sit within this Affectiball.\nWe can now ask whether this Affectiball (and its interior) goes on forever, or ends. This really contains two questions. First, will the spacetime go on forever, or terminate in a singularity like the [big crunch](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Crunch)? Second, will interesting things continue to happen forever, or will the Affectiball approach some sort of equilibrium [\"heat death\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe)? If we assert that \"interesting things\" require the ability to do computations, and that computations can't happen without spacetime (see [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0110141) and [here](http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0404510) for some discussion), we can combine these into one question:\nIs the number of computations that can in principle be done within the Affectiball finite?\nIf so, we can say the universe will end, at least in terms of anything we can affect or take part in. (The question of whether interesting things will continue to happen elsewhere is an interesting but separate one.)\n",
- "numforecasts": 574,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-03-01T17:29:14Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "9999-12-31T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "If chess is solved before 2080, must perfect play result in white winning?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/480/if-chess-is-solved-before-2080-must-perfect-play-result-in-white-winning/",
@@ -56769,33 +57037,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1576/fewer-than-375m-in-extreme-poverty-by-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In September 2015, 193 world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and called for a “data revolution” to enhance accountability in measuring the progress towards their fulfilment. The SDGs have [17 goals](https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/poverty/) of which the first is “To end poverty in all its forms everywhere by 2030”.\nExtreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.90 a day, measured in 2011 Purchasing Power Parity prices. Currently, [around 630M people](https://worldpoverty.io/) (roughly 8%) live in extreme poverty worldwide. According to [World Bank Data](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/?from=world#$chart-type=bubbles&state$time$value=2006&delay:121.71612903225821;&entities$;&marker$select@;&opacitySelectDim:0.3&axis_x$use=indicator&which=income_per_person_gdppercapita_ppp_inflation_adjusted&scaleType=log&zoomedMin=282&zoomedMax=119849&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&axis_y$use=indicator&which=extreme_poverty_percent_people_below_190_a_day&scaleType=linear&zoomedMin=0&zoomedMax=93&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&size$use=indicator&which=population_total&extent@:0.022083333333333333&:0.4083333333333333;&domainMin:null&domainMax:null;&color$use=property&which=world_6region;;;&ui$chart$trails:false), extreme poverty has been declining by roughly 1% per year since the 1980's. However, [there is evidence](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/09/19/decline-of-global-extreme-poverty-continues-but-has-slowed-world-bank) that the decline in global extreme poverty has been slowing.\nA [2018 study by Cuaresma et al.](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-018-0083-y.pdf) on the poverty paths of developing countries projects worldwide poverty rates ranging from 4.5% (around 375 million persons) to almost 6% (over 500 million persons) in 2030.\nWill we see fewer than 375M in extreme poverty by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than 375M in extreme poverty in any year up to (and including) 2030. For this question we will refer to the data by the World Bank, and if this is unavailable, some other database listed on the [data sources page](https://www.metaculus.com/help/prediction-resources/#data-sources).\n",
- "numforecasts": 187,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2026-06-24T22:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-06-11T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/",
@@ -56839,22 +57080,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
{
"title": "When will programs write programs for us?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/",
@@ -56899,102 +57124,21 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Is the Zuma satellite still in orbit?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1618/is-the-zuma-satellite-still-in-orbit/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.43,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5700000000000001,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "In January 2018, a classified satellite known only as Zuma, built by defense contractor Northrop Grumman for an unknown agency of the United States government, was launched by commercial space launch provider SpaceX. The specific agency in charge of the Zuma project has not been disclosed, nor its purpose. The National Reconnaissance Office, the agency responsible for operating the spy satellites of the United States, which typically announces the launch of its assets, specifically denied that Zuma was one of their satellites ([http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-…](http://aviationweek.com/awinspace/nro-spacex-zuma-payload-not-its-bird)).\nThe satellite had a development cost of approximately $3.5 billion according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, and as such is one of the most-expensive single objects ever launched into space.\nIt is also, perhaps, one of the costliest objects ever lost in connection to a space mission. \nThe official story (provided by anonymous government officials) is that Zuma was lost before achieving orbit when it failed to separate from its payload adapter, provided by Northrop Grumman, and was destroyed when it re-entered Earth's atmosphere. Launch provider SpaceX has been absolved of responsibility for the claimed loss of the satellite. However, due to the uncommon extent of the secrecy surrounding the mission and the high value of the payload, conspiracy theories have swirled from the day of the launch. \nMany people believe that the satellite is actually in orbit conducting a secret mission for persons unknown. Amateur astronomers have been scanning the skies in an attempt to locate the satellite (a feat previously accomplished with spy satellites, the orbits of which are not typically disclosed by the agencies responsible for them), but so far have not succeeded in locating Zuma. The US government has so far refused to publicly state if there was a failure of Zuma, and this secrecy has only served to increase the level of speculation on its purpose and its fate.\nMore information on the satellite can be found here: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuma_(satellite))\nWas Zuma really destroyed before achieving orbit - or is it still up there? \nThis question shall resolve positively if credible media reports state that the Zuma satellite has been located in orbit around Earth, or if any agency of the United States government publicly confirms that the satellite is still in orbit. The satellite need not be operational, or have ever been operational, in order for the question to resolve positively.\nThe question will resolve negatively if conclusive evidence of the satellite's destruction is presented.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if neither a positive nor negative resolution is possible by January 1, 2030.\n",
- "numforecasts": 119,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a technology replace screens?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4577/when-will-a-technology-replace-screens/",
+ "title": "How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/",
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n",
- "numforecasts": 105,
+ "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
+ "numforecasts": 54,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z",
+ "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
"resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T05:00:00Z"
+ "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/512/will-an-ai-system-do-credibly-well-on-a-full-math-sat-exam-by-2025/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.30000000000000004,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n",
- "numforecasts": 716,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-03-15T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n",
- "numforecasts": 1367,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when the Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5729/m-community-brier-when-300-predictors-per-q/",
@@ -57151,6 +57295,22 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [],
+ "description": "In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. \nNational Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) \"the moon-landing of free-soloing\" and reported: \nIt’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.\nIn June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.\nHans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: \"It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”\nPer [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): \nThe Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. \nAccording to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?\n",
+ "numforecasts": 77,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2018-07-12T07:00:00Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2030-07-07T07:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
{
"title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/",
@@ -57178,49 +57338,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2021.\n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-26T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-09-01T19:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2021-06-15T19:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "The Rise and Fall of the Banana: Will the current main export cultivar, the Cavendish, be replaced by 2035?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1558/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-banana-will-the-current-main-export-cultivar-the-cavendish-be-replaced-by-2035/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Bananas are a well-liked import fruit all over the world, and the Cavendish cultivar has been crushing that market for sixty years. But its rise is literally founded upon the compost heap of the Gros Michel, another cultivar. The so-called “Big Mike” variety had been the leading export towards Europe and North America, but the Panama disease, a fungus belonging to the Fusarium clade, killed that. [Luckily the Cavendish, grown in the same soil as the wilting Gros Michel, replaced it as the banana most of the western world connected with bananas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana).\nHowever, it appears [another Fusarium rears its spores](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/cavendish-banana-extinction-gene-editing). Cavendish, with their genetic homogenity (they’re all clones) and sterile nature, aren’t resistant to it, and the fungus is ravaging more and more plantations. \nThere are efforts under way to deal with Fusarium, but with various societies’ doubts and misgivings about GMOs, the cure may be viewed as a curse instead.\nWill the Cavendish account for less than 50% of banana exports worldwide by 2035?\nResolution is negative if Cavendish accounts for more than 50% of worldwide banana exports every year between now and 2035, and positive otherwise.\n",
- "numforecasts": 127,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2024-11-11T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2034-12-30T23:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/",
@@ -57280,33 +57397,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, and possibly much sooner.\nIn a [2017 survey of artificial intelligence experts](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf), experts were asked about the effects of human level machine intelligence. They assigned a 10% for a bad outcome and 5% for an outcome described as “Extremely Bad (e.g., human extinction).” Although a selection bias, large variance in responses (reflecting vast uncertainty), and the unreliability of subjective opinions mean that these estimates warrant skepticism, they nevertheless suggest that the possibility of superintelligence ought to be taken seriously.\nIn a [2008 survey](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2008-1.pdf) at the Global Catastrophic Risk Conference in Oxford, participants were asked to make their best guess at the chance that there will be disasters of different types before 2100. The median estimate of the chance of 1 billion deaths by 2100 by a superintelligent AI was 5%. Interestingly the median estimate of the chance of human extinction by a superintelligent AI was also 5%, suggesting that if an AI-failure-mode-induced-catastrophe does occur, it's likely be a terminal one for human civilisation.\nWhen considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely (according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/)): \n1--The AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2--The AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. \nIn the first part of the Ragnarök Question Series, we asked the question [If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) Now it is asked,\nGiven that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?\nThe question resolves positive if such a catastrophe does occur, and the global population is less than 95% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. It resolves ambiguous if an artificial intelligence global catastrophe that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) does not occur. The question resolves negative if a an artificial intelligence failure-mode induced global catastrophe occurs that claims at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n",
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- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2100-11-25T23:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2101-06-15T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
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{
"title": "How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1622/how-many-spaceflight-related-fatalities-will-occur-between-january-1-2020-and-january-1-2025/",
@@ -57323,124 +57413,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1538/will-metaculus-predict-that-artificial-intelligence-continues-to-pose-a-global-catastrophic-risk/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.73,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.27,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Currently, artificial intelligence can outperform humans in a number of narrow domains, such as playing chess and searching data. As artificial intelligence researchers continue to make progress, though, these domains are highly likely to grow in number and breadth over time. Many experts now believe there is a significant chance that a machine superintelligence – a system that can outperform humans at all relevant intelligence tasks – will be developed within the next century, [and possibly much sooner](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/). \nAs predictions to [a previous question suggest](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/), artificial intelligence might pose a global catastrophic risk (defined there as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years). When considering how AI might become a risk, experts think two scenarios most likely, according to the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/background/benefits-risks-of-artificial-intelligence/): \n1-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something devastating: Autonomous weapons are artificial intelligence systems that are programmed to kill. In the hands of the wrong person, these weapons could easily cause mass casualties. Moreover, an AI arms race could inadvertently lead to an AI war that also results in mass casualties. To avoid being thwarted by the enemy, these weapons would be designed to be extremely difficult to simply “turn off,” so humans could plausibly lose control of such a situation. This risk is one that’s present even with narrow AI, but grows as levels of AI intelligence and autonomy increase. \n2-- \nThe AI is programmed to do something beneficial, but it develops a destructive method for achieving its goal: This can happen whenever we fail to fully align the AI’s goals with ours, which is strikingly difficult. If you ask an obedient intelligent car to take you to the airport as fast as possible, it might get you there chased by helicopters and covered in vomit, doing not what you wanted but literally what you asked for. If a superintelligent system is tasked with a ambitious geoengineering project, it might wreak havoc with our ecosystem as a side effect, and view human attempts to stop it as a threat to be met. As these examples illustrate, the concern about advanced AI isn’t malevolence but competence. A super-intelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we have a problem.\nIt is [thought by some](https://futureoflife.org/ai-open-letter/) that reducing the second of these two risks will require progress in technical methods of developing scalable control methods that could ensure that a AI will be safe and will behave as its programmers intend even if its intellectual capabilities are increased to arbitrary levels. Until recently, this problem was almost entirely neglected; but in the last couple of years, technical research agendas have been developed, and there are now several research groups pursuing work in this area. Total investment in long-term AI safety, however, remains orders of magnitude less than investment in increasing AI capability. Additionally, reducing the first of the listed risks might require improvements in our ability to control, govern and coordinate on the usage of such systems, so to reduce potential security threats from [malicious uses of AI technologies](https://maliciousaireport.com/). \nBut how certain are we that artificial intelligence continue to be regarded to constitute a large chunk of global catastrophic risk, at least through 2040? [A previous question asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/): If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some Artificial Intelligence system(s)?\nWill the probability (of both the Metaculus and community predictions) [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) (given that a global catastrophe does occur) remain above 5% in each 6-month period before 2040?\nThis question resolves positively if both the Metaculus and community predictions) of [artificial intelligence causing a global catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/) fail to fall below 5% for any 6-month period before 2040, as will be confirmed by one of the Metaculus admins.\n",
- "numforecasts": 118,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2040-01-01T23:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2040-07-12T22:59:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "When will directly removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere be economically feasible?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4614/when-will-directly-removing-carbon-dioxide-from-the-atmosphere-be-economically-feasible/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are \"low-hanging fruit\": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.\nOne way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.\nWhen will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?\n---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. \n---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. \n---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). \n---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. \n---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. \n---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. \n---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. \nETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.\n",
- "numforecasts": 60,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-06-17T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2067-01-02T01:03:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T01:03:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n",
- "numforecasts": 214,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
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- {
- "title": "How good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6125/quality-of-retinal-implants-in-2030/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n",
- "numforecasts": 54,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2028-07-01T03:59:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "When will a climber beat Alex Honnold and Tommy Caldwell's record for climbing the Nose of El Capitan?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1053/when-will-a-climber-beat-alex-honnold-and-tommy-caldwells-record-for-climbing-the-nose-of-el-capitan/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [],
- "description": "In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. \nNational Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) \"the moon-landing of free-soloing\" and reported: \nIt’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.\nIn June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.\nHans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: \"It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”\nPer [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): \nThe Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. \nAccording to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?\n",
- "numforecasts": 77,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2018-07-12T07:00:00Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2020-01-01T08:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2030-07-07T07:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": ""
- },
- {
- "title": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?",
- "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/",
- "platform": "Metaculus",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.75,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": 0.25,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).\nResearchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).\nWill these be popular among at least \"innovators\" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025\nWill 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025\nResolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.\n",
- "numforecasts": 237,
- "stars": 3,
- "resolution_data": {
- "publish_time": "2016-05-13T13:12:46Z",
- "resolution": null,
- "close_time": "2016-11-15T00:00:00Z",
- "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z"
- },
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/",
@@ -57468,6 +57440,33 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Contact lenses for augmented reality in use by innovators before 2026?",
+ "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/229/contact-lenses-for-augmented-reality-in-use-by-innovators-before-2026/",
+ "platform": "Metaculus",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.75,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.25,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "Contact lens Augmented Reality (AR) has been depicted in various futurist scenarios, like May-raz and Lazo's award-winning, 8 min film [Sight (2012)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5KRTr-QRLk).\nResearchers like University of Washington Professor Babak Amir Parviz have [been working on the science and technology since at least 2009](http://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/bionics/augmented-reality-in-a-contact-lens/0), and companies like Innovega (Bellvue, WA) are [working on bringing these out](http://innovega-inc.com/new-architecture.php).\nWill these be popular among at least \"innovators\" by 2025? Let's define innovators as the first 2.5 percent of a group to adopt a new idea, and assume our reasonably affluent global tech user group is at least 100 million in 2025\nWill 2.5 million of these (or other) users (for example, soldiers) use contact lenses for augmented reality, at least occasionally (1+ day a week), by the end of 2025\nResolution will be positive if credible media or company statements indicate > 2.5 million regular users of augmented reality contact lenses by Dec 31, 2025.\n",
+ "numforecasts": 237,
+ "stars": 3,
+ "resolution_data": {
+ "publish_time": "2016-05-13T13:12:46Z",
+ "resolution": null,
+ "close_time": "2016-11-15T00:00:00Z",
+ "resolve_time": "2026-01-15T00:00:00Z"
+ },
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?",
"url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/",
@@ -57522,7 +57521,7 @@
"platform": "Metaculus",
"options": [],
"description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n",
- "numforecasts": 173,
+ "numforecasts": 174,
"stars": 3,
"resolution_data": {
"publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z",
@@ -57580,53 +57579,6 @@
},
"optionsstringforsearch": ""
},
- {
- "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Texas",
- "probability": "0.09471882941566854900783987701471025",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Florida",
- "probability": "0.8862514475368737605999119046633115",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "California",
- "probability": "0.01902972304745769039224821832197825",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "276",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Texas, Florida, California"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3325426078486210391403659153611369",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6674573921513789608596340846388631",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "98",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
@@ -57635,16 +57587,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1718025008310863946779364090448349",
+ "probability": "0.07753824631498304305713109847982703",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8281974991689136053220635909551651",
+ "probability": "0.922461753685016956942868901520173",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "451",
+ "numforecasts": "504",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.4599317644432323598775687301012367",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.5400682355567676401224312698987633",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "70",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -57656,60 +57629,75 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8978542963687510509806282313940195",
+ "probability": "0.8974107967751541143208149317438613",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1021457036312489490193717686059805",
+ "probability": "0.1025892032248458856791850682561387",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "797",
+ "numforecasts": "798",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will the Ever Given be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ever-given-be-dislodged-from-the-suez-canal-by-march-30",
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the Ever Given container ship (IMO: 9811000, MMSI 353136000) will be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. For the purpose of this market, dislodged from the Suez Canal will mean that the Ever Given has a latitude higher than 30.03000 N (i.e. be at least half a mile above where it got stuck) or lower than 30.01000 N degrees (i.e. be at least half a mile below where it got stuck), by the resolution date, March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this for this market will be the Ever Green’s latitude and longitude coordinates, as tracked by Vessel Finder and displayed in their “Position & Voyage Data” table (https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000).",
+ "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4698896746217403382421058389612625",
+ "probability": "0.01394232389372196757070549823602875",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5301103253782596617578941610387375",
+ "probability": "0.9860576761062780324292945017639713",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "383",
- "stars": 4,
+ "numforecasts": "15",
+ "stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7",
+ "title": "What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-monthly-nft-trading-volume-be-on-april-13-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "description": "This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4526971438909513404307955024326983",
+ "name": "$80M or Less",
+ "probability": "0.05744360602032953362501417765827628",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5473028561090486595692044975673017",
+ "name": "$81-105M",
+ "probability": "0.6714313199989959113997850001650252",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "$106-120M",
+ "probability": "0.1558340346479539708610918819061469",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "$121-135M",
+ "probability": "0.06367479538279264655713628485976061",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "$136M or More",
+ "probability": "0.05161624394992793755697265541079074",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "57",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ "numforecasts": "203",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "$80M or Less, $81-105M, $106-120M, $121-135M, $136M or More"
},
{
"title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?",
@@ -57719,38 +57707,50 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4426875615958327161228189497385512",
+ "probability": "0.4061604608970735746980251586486453",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5573124384041672838771810502614488",
+ "probability": "0.5938395391029264253019748413513547",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "91",
+ "numforecasts": "94",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
+ "outcomes": [
+ "Yes",
+ "No"
+ ],
+ "options": [],
+ "optionsstringforsearch": ""
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0007833069340194859579063580919656911",
+ "probability": "0.811137805040424106412252281387405",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9992166930659805140420936419080343",
+ "probability": "0.188862194959575893587747718612595",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "187",
- "stars": 3,
+ "numforecasts": "3177",
+ "stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
@@ -57761,17 +57761,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.11325563039183722103275617002183",
+ "probability": "0.07304455174120395584463620390808104",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.88674436960816277896724382997817",
+ "probability": "0.926955448258796044155363796091919",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "7773",
- "stars": 4,
+ "numforecasts": "8243",
+ "stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
@@ -57782,16 +57782,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0005773167438572659616369798800062558",
+ "probability": "0.0002594014467534253739238797362305842",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9994226832561427340383630201199937",
+ "probability": "0.9997405985532465746260761202637694",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "4284",
+ "numforecasts": "4314",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on June 30, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-june-30-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on June 30, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/\n\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.9514096993620200431360981712878928",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.04859030063797995686390182871210717",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "4",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -57803,16 +57824,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0785186989419276422486486868372132",
+ "probability": "0.07590406992189588515175078805599503",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9214813010580723577513513131627868",
+ "probability": "0.924095930078104114848249211944005",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "399",
+ "numforecasts": "411",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -57824,16 +57845,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0463958172809963982245937485905163",
+ "probability": "0.04200290899238056378530487686460393",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9536041827190036017754062514094837",
+ "probability": "0.9579970910076194362146951231353961",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "85",
+ "numforecasts": "89",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -57845,16 +57866,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.01556978274231434901849274397707455",
+ "probability": "0.02304787940068400388231862024485495",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9844302172576856509815072560229254",
+ "probability": "0.9769521205993159961176813797551451",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "720",
+ "numforecasts": "726",
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -57866,37 +57887,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1199447741739855272384936981505642",
+ "probability": "0.1283821729293469028524210423415517",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8800552258260144727615063018494358",
+ "probability": "0.8716178270706530971475789576584483",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "73",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6720667278394123702971286257476096",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3279332721605876297028713742523904",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "2618",
+ "numforecasts": "75",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -57908,55 +57908,19 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.01019374154946546974525356766539572",
+ "probability": "0.001584751006425928853977388179070808",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9898062584505345302547464323346043",
+ "probability": "0.9984152489935740711460226118209292",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "87",
+ "numforecasts": "102",
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
- {
- "title": "What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-monthly-nft-trading-volume-be-on-april-13-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "$80M or Less",
- "probability": "0.09311545717991747005375998978049056",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$81-105M",
- "probability": "0.4546994257057043229946384853760889",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$106-120M",
- "probability": "0.2157457711612491388147202046582125",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$121-135M",
- "probability": "0.1199694628723149212877599749935941",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$136M or More",
- "probability": "0.1164698830808141468491213451916138",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "144",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "$80M or Less, $81-105M, $106-120M, $121-135M, $136M or More"
- },
{
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
@@ -57965,79 +57929,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1645269193840114258022893873779148",
+ "probability": "0.1661397634672417208420309135621839",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8354730806159885741977106126220852",
+ "probability": "0.8338602365327582791579690864378161",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "78",
+ "numforecasts": "87",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
+ "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05850935819533382463369476425064051",
+ "probability": "0.8625280409263922776450772413925053",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9414906418046661753663052357493595",
+ "probability": "0.1374719590736077223549227586074947",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7288981168376345387653725396207922",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2711018831623654612346274603792078",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "54",
- "stars": 4,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-175-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-april-10",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7158133605584465880501470012740285",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2841866394415534119498529987259715",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "56",
+ "numforecasts": "273",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
@@ -58049,19 +57971,82 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2791105028801385312747041678913065",
+ "probability": "0.3074187289292383718296906672878704",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7208894971198614687252958321086935",
+ "probability": "0.6925812710707616281703093327121296",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "30",
+ "numforecasts": "39",
"stars": 4,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.05473473251674721078257169228566964",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.9452652674832527892174283077143304",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "98",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.722552112790316904876933165751827",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.277447887209683095123066834248173",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "55",
+ "stars": 4,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a recall election is triggered and \"No\" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.9887645696991241916193178356973243",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.01123543030087580838068216430267569",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "1368",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District",
@@ -58069,12 +58054,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.9126213592233009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.08737864077669902,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58089,22 +58074,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5238095238095238,
+ "probability": 0.5288461538461539,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4380952380952381,
+ "probability": 0.4326923076923077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Libertarian",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58119,12 +58104,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.54,
+ "probability": 0.5346534653465347,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.4653465346534653,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58139,12 +58124,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5825242718446602,
+ "probability": 0.594059405940594,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.4174757281553398,
+ "probability": 0.4059405940594059,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58159,47 +58144,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "22 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26",
- "probability": 0.0660377358490566,
+ "probability": 0.06542056074766356,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "27",
- "probability": 0.8679245283018868,
+ "probability": 0.8691588785046729,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "29",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58254,12 +58239,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58314,12 +58299,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8910891089108911,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58334,12 +58319,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8811881188118812,
+ "probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58354,88 +58339,88 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.4999999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.49572649572649563,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.21929824561403508,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.05263157894736841,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.05263157894736841,
+ "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.05263157894736841,
+ "probability": 0.059829059829059825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
+ "name": "Raymond McGuire",
+ "probability": 0.05128205128205127,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Scott Stringer",
+ "probability": 0.05128205128205127,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Garcia",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
+ "probability": 0.025641025641025637,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Curtis Sliwa",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
+ "name": "Shaun Donovan",
+ "probability": 0.017094017094017092,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carlos Menchaca",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Loree Sutton",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Curtis Sliwa",
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Rose",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zach Iscol",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Catsimatidis",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paperboy Prince",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Fernando Mateo",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Raymond McGuire, Scott Stringer, Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo"
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?",
@@ -58484,12 +58469,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58524,12 +58509,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6039603960396039,
+ "probability": 0.6078431372549019,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.39603960396039606,
+ "probability": 0.39215686274509803,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58584,12 +58569,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
+ "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58604,12 +58589,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
+ "probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58624,12 +58609,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.7920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.2079207920792079,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58644,22 +58629,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Terry McAuliffe",
- "probability": 0.8653846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.8910891089108911,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.0891089108910891,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer McClellan",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Fairfax",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58674,12 +58659,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
+ "probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -58774,88 +58759,88 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.3833333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.3565217391304347,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.2833333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.10833333333333332,
+ "probability": 0.34782608695652173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.08333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.08695652173913043,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Robert Habeck",
+ "probability": 0.0608695652173913,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.033333333333333326,
+ "probability": 0.03478260869565217,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.024999999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.026086956521739126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christian Lindner",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katja Kipping",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Gauland",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernd Riexinger",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?",
@@ -58864,12 +58849,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kirk Cox",
- "probability": 0.5046728971962617,
+ "probability": 0.48598130841121495,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Snyder",
- "probability": 0.24299065420560748,
+ "probability": 0.25233644859813087,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -58879,7 +58864,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Amanda Chase",
- "probability": 0.08411214953271028,
+ "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -58929,88 +58914,88 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.22807017543859642,
+ "probability": 0.22321428571428564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.17543859649122803,
+ "probability": 0.17857142857142852,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.08771929824561402,
+ "probability": 0.08928571428571426,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.08771929824561402,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.052631578947368404,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.052631578947368404,
+ "probability": 0.08928571428571426,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.04385964912280701,
+ "probability": 0.053571428571428555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.04385964912280701,
+ "name": "Ted Cruz",
+ "probability": 0.053571428571428555,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mike Pence",
+ "probability": 0.053571428571428555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.035087719298245605,
+ "probability": 0.035714285714285705,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Marco Rubio",
+ "probability": 0.035714285714285705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.035087719298245605,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.035087719298245605,
+ "probability": 0.035714285714285705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684202,
+ "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684202,
+ "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684202,
+ "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Tim Scott",
+ "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684202,
+ "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122803,
+ "probability": 0.017857142857142853,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Larry Hogan, Rick Scott"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Larry Hogan, Rick Scott"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?",
@@ -59019,7 +59004,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.3899999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.3999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -59028,12 +59013,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
+ "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.06999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
+ "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.059999999999999984,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
@@ -59044,7 +59029,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.039999999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -59055,52 +59040,7 @@
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton"
- },
- {
- "title": "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "33 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "34 or 35",
- "probability": 0.9428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "36 or 37",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "38 or 39",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40 or 41",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42 or 43",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "44 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "33 or fewer, 34 or 35, 36 or 37, 38 or 39, 40 or 41, 42 or 43, 44 or more"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton"
},
{
"title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
@@ -59109,37 +59049,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Michelle Wu",
- "probability": 0.5,
+ "probability": 0.49074074074074076,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kim Janey",
- "probability": 0.25471698113207547,
+ "probability": 0.25925925925925924,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Campbell",
- "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
+ "probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Barros",
- "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
+ "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Santiago",
- "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
+ "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Essaibi-George",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
+ "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59194,12 +59134,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59234,12 +59174,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59294,67 +59234,67 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Jane Timken",
- "probability": 0.3364485981308411,
+ "probability": 0.3465346534653465,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "J. D. Vance",
- "probability": 0.29906542056074764,
+ "probability": 0.2871287128712871,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.205607476635514,
+ "probability": 0.19801980198019803,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Stivers",
- "probability": 0.037383177570093455,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
+ "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Turner",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Frank LaRose",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brad Wenstrup",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59389,12 +59329,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59429,12 +59369,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59449,77 +59389,77 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Troy Carter",
- "probability": 0.584070796460177,
+ "probability": 0.5217391304347825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karen Peterson",
- "probability": 0.30088495575221236,
+ "probability": 0.36521739130434777,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chelsea Ardoin",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Belden Batiste",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Claston Bernard",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gary Chambers",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Harold John",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christopher Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Jolicoeur",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lloyd Kelly",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greg Lirette",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mindy McConnell",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Desiree Ontiveros",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenette Porter",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59534,52 +59474,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lenín Moreno",
- "probability": 0.8878504672897195,
+ "probability": 0.8899082568807338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Ortega",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nicolás Maduro",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Francisco Sagasti",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sebastián Piñera",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Iván Duque",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. M. López Obrador",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alberto Fernández",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luis Arce",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59614,52 +59554,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Hassan Rouhani",
- "probability": 0.47058823529411764,
+ "probability": 0.49019607843137253,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
- "probability": 0.34453781512605036,
+ "probability": 0.30392156862745096,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Morrison",
- "probability": 0.08403361344537814,
+ "probability": 0.09803921568627451,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.03361344537815126,
+ "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kim Jong-un",
- "probability": 0.025210084033613443,
+ "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Moon Jae-in",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Narendra Modi",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joko Widodo",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.008403361344537815,
+ "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59714,47 +59654,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Alvin Bragg",
- "probability": 0.3584905660377358,
+ "probability": 0.33944954128440363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tali Weinstein",
- "probability": 0.32075471698113206,
+ "probability": 0.33944954128440363,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tahanie Aboushi",
- "probability": 0.14150943396226415,
+ "probability": 0.14678899082568805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eliza Orlins",
- "probability": 0.09433962264150944,
+ "probability": 0.09174311926605505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Quart",
- "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
+ "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lucy Lang",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyrus Vance",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Diana Florence",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Crotty",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -59769,58 +59709,58 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune",
- "probability": 0.35,
+ "probability": 0.3809523809523809,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Muhammadu Buhari",
- "probability": 0.18,
+ "probability": 0.18095238095238092,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Uhuru Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12380952380952379,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abiy Ahmed",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.11428571428571425,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Félix Tshisekedi",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.04761904761904761,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nana Akufo-Addo",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.038095238095238085,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul Kagame",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.028571428571428564,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi",
+ "probability": 0.019047619047619042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Cyril Ramaphosa, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Paul Kagame"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Cyril Ramaphosa, Paul Kagame, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"
},
{
"title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?",
@@ -59884,12 +59824,12 @@
},
{
"name": "19",
- "probability": 0.037383177570093455,
+ "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "20",
- "probability": 0.6074766355140186,
+ "probability": 0.5981308411214953,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -59919,88 +59859,88 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Jon Sallet",
- "probability": 0.6923076923076923,
+ "probability": 0.76,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jonathan Kanter",
- "probability": 0.17307692307692307,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Renata Hesse",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Deborah Feinstein",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Susan Davies",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Rebecca Slaughter",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Dave Gelfand",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Steven Sunshine",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Terrell McSweeny",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jon Leibowitz",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Juan Arteaga",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Renata Hesse",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Deborah Feinstein",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Susan Davies",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Rebecca Slaughter",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Dave Gelfand",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Steven Sunshine",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Terrell McSweeny",
+ "probability": 0.01,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jon Leibowitz",
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gigi Sohn",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Edward Smith",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Einer Elhauge",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Douglas Melamed",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Juan Arteaga, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Jon Sallet, Jonathan Kanter, Juan Arteaga, Renata Hesse, Deborah Feinstein, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Dave Gelfand, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Jon Leibowitz, Gigi Sohn, Edward Smith, Einer Elhauge, Douglas Melamed"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?",
@@ -60009,17 +59949,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrés Arauz",
- "probability": 0.86,
+ "probability": 0.8514851485148515,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Guillermo Lasso",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.13861386138613863,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yaku Pérez",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60094,58 +60034,58 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Suga Yoshihide",
- "probability": 0.4117647058823529,
+ "probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.12745098039215685,
+ "probability": 0.13,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Trudeau",
- "probability": 0.09803921568627451,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.08823529411764705,
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.08823529411764705,
+ "probability": 0.09,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Emmanuel Macron",
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cyril Ramaphosa",
- "probability": 0.058823529411764705,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.058823529411764705,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.0392156862745098,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
- "probability": 0.0196078431372549,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
- "probability": 0.00980392156862745,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Jair Bolsonaro, Cyril Ramaphosa, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Jair Bolsonaro, Emmanuel Macron, Cyril Ramaphosa, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?",
@@ -60154,27 +60094,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tim Ryan",
- "probability": 0.6534653465346535,
+ "probability": 0.64,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Acton",
- "probability": 0.3069306930693069,
+ "probability": 0.28,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emilia Sykes",
- "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joyce Beatty",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nan Whaley",
- "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60189,32 +60129,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "John Fetterman",
- "probability": 0.6666666666666666,
+ "probability": 0.6698113207547169,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conor Lamb",
- "probability": 0.13333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.14150943396226415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Malcolm Kenyatta",
- "probability": 0.11428571428571428,
+ "probability": 0.10377358490566037,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Madeleine Dean",
- "probability": 0.06666666666666667,
+ "probability": 0.0660377358490566,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Sestak",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Kenney",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60229,52 +60169,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "62 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.2935779816513761,
+ "probability": 0.27358490566037735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "63 or 64",
- "probability": 0.2201834862385321,
+ "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 or 66",
- "probability": 0.2110091743119266,
+ "probability": 0.2169811320754717,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "67 or 68",
- "probability": 0.19266055045871558,
+ "probability": 0.1981132075471698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69 or 70",
- "probability": 0.03669724770642201,
+ "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 or 72",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "73 or 74",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75 or 76",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "77 or 78",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "79 or more",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60324,12 +60264,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.56,
+ "probability": 0.5742574257425742,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.43,
+ "probability": 0.42574257425742573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60384,73 +60324,73 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Shalanda Young",
- "probability": 0.3592233009708737,
+ "probability": 0.3584905660377358,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nani Coloretti",
- "probability": 0.320388349514563,
+ "probability": 0.2830188679245283,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chris Lu",
- "probability": 0.06796116504854367,
+ "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Thea Lee",
- "probability": 0.06796116504854367,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sarah Bianchi",
- "probability": 0.058252427184466,
+ "probability": 0.0660377358490566,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Martha Coven",
- "probability": 0.029126213592233,
+ "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Heather Boushey",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
+ "name": "Sarah Bianchi",
+ "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jared Bernstein",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Sonal Shah",
- "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ann O'Leary",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077667,
+ "probability": 0.03773584905660377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gene Sperling",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077667,
+ "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Heather Boushey",
+ "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Sonal Shah",
+ "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Ann O'Leary",
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neera Tanden",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077667,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Jones",
- "probability": 0.009708737864077667,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Chris Lu, Thea Lee, Sarah Bianchi, Martha Coven, Heather Boushey, Jared Bernstein, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Gene Sperling, Neera Tanden, John Jones"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Chris Lu, Thea Lee, Martha Coven, Sarah Bianchi, Jared Bernstein, Gene Sperling, Heather Boushey, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, John Jones"
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?",
@@ -60479,47 +60419,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Rob Bonta",
- "probability": 0.9252336448598131,
+ "probability": 0.9245283018867924,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Xavier Becerra",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Adam Schiff",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Chavez Zbur",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff Rosen",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Diana Becton",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Darrell Steinberg",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Goodwin Liu",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anna Caballero",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60534,12 +60474,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
+ "probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60554,12 +60494,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.51,
+ "probability": 0.49,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60574,52 +60514,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.6111111111111109,
+ "probability": 0.5922330097087377,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrej Babiš",
- "probability": 0.11111111111111108,
+ "probability": 0.13592233009708735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mario Draghi",
- "probability": 0.0648148148148148,
+ "probability": 0.058252427184466,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Lukashenko",
- "probability": 0.04629629629629629,
+ "probability": 0.04854368932038834,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Rutte",
- "probability": 0.03703703703703703,
+ "probability": 0.03883495145631067,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.03703703703703703,
+ "probability": 0.03883495145631067,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vladimir Putin",
- "probability": 0.02777777777777777,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pedro Sánchez",
- "probability": 0.02777777777777777,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518514,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518514,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60634,62 +60574,62 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yonhy Lescano",
- "probability": 0.5943396226415094,
+ "probability": 0.5258620689655171,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rafael López Aliaga",
- "probability": 0.16037735849056603,
+ "probability": 0.14655172413793102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George Forsyth",
- "probability": 0.14150943396226415,
+ "probability": 0.1293103448275862,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keiko Fujimori",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.06896551724137931,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Verónika Mendoza",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.043103448275862065,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hernando de Soto",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.034482758620689655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Urresti",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "César Acuña",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alberto Beingolea",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julio Guzmán",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ollanta Humala",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Salaverry",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60759,7 +60699,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lorena González",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -60769,17 +60709,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Bruce Harrell",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Grant Houston",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Andrew Grant Houston",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Lance Randall",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -60809,12 +60749,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charlene Barshefsky",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -60889,22 +60829,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.7757009345794393,
+ "probability": 0.7692307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Iowa",
- "probability": 0.08411214953271029,
+ "probability": 0.08653846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018692,
+ "probability": 0.07692307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "South Carolina",
- "probability": 0.06542056074766357,
+ "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60919,12 +60859,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -60958,64 +60898,64 @@
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Eric Schmitt",
- "probability": 0.38461538461538464,
+ "name": "Eric Greitens",
+ "probability": 0.38738738738738737,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Eric Greitens",
- "probability": 0.36538461538461536,
+ "name": "Eric Schmitt",
+ "probability": 0.37837837837837834,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jason Smith",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.09009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ann Wagner",
- "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.05405405405405405,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vicky Hartzler",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Blunt",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Kehoe",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Billy Long",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.018018018018018018,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Roy Blunt",
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mike Kehoe",
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carl Edwards",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Brunner",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Schmitt, Eric Greitens, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Billy Long, Carl Edwards, John Brunner"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Eric Greitens, Eric Schmitt, Jason Smith, Ann Wagner, Vicky Hartzler, Billy Long, Roy Blunt, Mike Kehoe, Jay Ashcroft, Carl Edwards, John Brunner"
},
{
"title": "Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?",
@@ -61024,43 +60964,43 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Mark Walker",
- "probability": 0.3796296296296296,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lara Trump",
- "probability": 0.28703703703703703,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pat McCrory",
- "probability": 0.21296296296296297,
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Lara Trump",
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Budd",
- "probability": 0.07407407407407407,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Forest",
- "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Burr",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Meadows",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Walker, Lara Trump, Pat McCrory, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Mark Walker, Pat McCrory, Lara Trump, Ted Budd, Dan Forest, Richard Burr, Mark Meadows"
},
{
"title": "Will the Senate end filibuster on any bill with less than 3/5 support in 2021?",
@@ -61089,12 +61029,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
+ "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
+ "probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61154,17 +61094,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "3 votes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4 or 5 votes",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or 7 votes",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -61179,22 +61119,22 @@
},
{
"name": "12 or 13 votes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14 or 15 votes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "14 or 15 votes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "16 or 17 votes",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18 or 19 votes",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -61214,12 +61154,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61234,12 +61174,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61254,12 +61194,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tishaura Jones",
- "probability": 0.87,
+ "probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cara Spencer",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61274,22 +61214,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Dem. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.35779816513761475,
+ "probability": 0.3142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rep. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.2935779816513762,
+ "probability": 0.30476190476190473,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "R House, D Senate",
- "probability": 0.23853211009174316,
+ "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "D House, R Senate",
- "probability": 0.11009174311926606,
+ "probability": 0.11428571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61304,22 +61244,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathy Hochul",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "name": "Kathy Hochul",
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -61327,21 +61262,26 @@
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
{
"name": "Jumaane Williams",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Andrew Yang",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Bill de Blasio",
"probability": 0.01,
@@ -61365,7 +61305,7 @@
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Kirsten Gillibrand, Alessandra Biaggi, Andrew Yang, Jumaane Williams, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Yang, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton"
},
{
"title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?",
@@ -61374,12 +61314,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61394,7 +61334,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Jeff Jackson",
- "probability": 0.45,
+ "probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -61404,7 +61344,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Erica Smith",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -61454,12 +61394,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Nina Turner",
- "probability": 0.6944444444444444,
+ "probability": 0.7037037037037037,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shontel Brown",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.24074074074074073,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -61514,12 +61454,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Sarah Godlewski",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Nelson",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61534,12 +61474,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
+ "probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61554,37 +61494,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Mo Brooks",
- "probability": 0.6422018348623852,
+ "probability": 0.6388888888888888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katie Britt",
- "probability": 0.2201834862385321,
+ "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lynda Blanchard",
- "probability": 0.06422018348623854,
+ "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Merrill",
- "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
+ "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Shelby",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Roy Moore",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff Sessions",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61604,7 +61544,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ed Gainey",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61679,52 +61619,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 1.6M",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.09174311926605505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.6M to 1.625M",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.625M to 1.65M",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.07339449541284403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.65M to 1.675M",
- "probability": 0.10576923076923077,
+ "probability": 0.09174311926605505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.675M to 1.7M",
- "probability": 0.18269230769230768,
+ "probability": 0.16513761467889906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.7M to 1.725M",
- "probability": 0.25961538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.2385321100917431,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.725M to 1.75M",
- "probability": 0.15384615384615385,
+ "probability": 0.14678899082568805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.75M to 1.775M",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.10091743119266054,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.775M to 1.8M",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.027522935779816512,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.8M or more",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
+ "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61739,12 +61679,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61759,33 +61699,33 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Chuck Grassley",
- "probability": 0.37,
+ "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pat Grassley",
- "probability": 0.26,
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jim Carlin",
+ "probability": 0.11,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Ashley Hinson",
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Whitaker",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Carlin",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ashley Hinson",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Matthew Whitaker, Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Chuck Grassley, Pat Grassley, Jim Carlin, Ashley Hinson, Matthew Whitaker"
},
{
"title": "How many Deputy Secretaries will be confirmed by April 16?",
@@ -61794,37 +61734,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "3 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4 or 5",
- "probability": 0.308411214953271,
+ "probability": 0.25925925925925924,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or 7",
- "probability": 0.6074766355140186,
+ "probability": 0.6574074074074073,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "8 or 9",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
+ "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10 or 11",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "12 or 13",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14 or more",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61839,33 +61779,33 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Ron Johnson",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Gallagher",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Scott Walker",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Steil",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Scott Walker",
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Wisconsin Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Kevin Nicholson, Mike Gallagher, Scott Walker, Brian Steil"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Mike Gallagher, Kevin Nicholson, Brian Steil, Scott Walker"
},
{
"title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30?",
@@ -61874,52 +61814,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "59 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.28828828828828834,
+ "probability": 0.4495412844036696,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "60 to 62",
- "probability": 0.06306306306306307,
+ "probability": 0.05504587155963301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "63 to 65",
- "probability": 0.03603603603603604,
+ "probability": 0.036697247706422007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "66 to 68",
- "probability": 0.05405405405405406,
+ "probability": 0.036697247706422007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69 to 71",
- "probability": 0.06306306306306307,
+ "probability": 0.05504587155963301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "72 to 74",
- "probability": 0.07207207207207209,
+ "probability": 0.06422018348623852,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75 to 77",
- "probability": 0.0900900900900901,
+ "probability": 0.06422018348623852,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "78 to 80",
- "probability": 0.09909909909909911,
+ "probability": 0.07339449541284401,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "81 to 83",
- "probability": 0.09909909909909911,
+ "probability": 0.06422018348623852,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "84 or more",
- "probability": 0.13513513513513514,
+ "probability": 0.10091743119266053,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -61932,50 +61872,50 @@
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7196/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-NM-01-special-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Antoinette Lopez",
+ "probability": 0.40909090909090906,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Georgene Louis",
- "probability": 0.3557692307692307,
+ "probability": 0.35454545454545455,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Melanie Stansbury",
- "probability": 0.2788461538461538,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Antoinette Lopez",
- "probability": 0.23076923076923075,
+ "probability": 0.09090909090909091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Victor Reyes",
- "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.07272727272727272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Randi McGinn",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.045454545454545456,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Patricia Caballero",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Selinda Guerrero",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Francisco Fernández",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Democratic nominee in the 2021 special election in New Mexico's 1st congressional district.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Georgene Louis, Melanie Stansbury, Antoinette Lopez, Victor Reyes, Randi McGinn, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Francisco Fernández"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Antoinette Lopez, Georgene Louis, Melanie Stansbury, Victor Reyes, Randi McGinn, Patricia Caballero, Selinda Guerrero, Francisco Fernández"
},
{
"title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?",
@@ -61984,12 +61924,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -62004,22 +61944,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -62034,52 +61974,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 2%",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384617,
+ "probability": 0.08571428571428573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2% to 4%",
- "probability": 0.10576923076923078,
+ "probability": 0.08571428571428573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4% to 6%",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384617,
+ "probability": 0.09523809523809526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6% to 8%",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846155,
+ "probability": 0.10476190476190478,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "8% to 10%",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384617,
+ "probability": 0.1142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10% to 12%",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384617,
+ "probability": 0.1142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "12% to 14%",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846155,
+ "probability": 0.09523809523809526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14% to 16%",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846155,
+ "probability": 0.09523809523809526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16% to 18%",
- "probability": 0.07692307692307694,
+ "probability": 0.06666666666666668,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18% or more",
- "probability": 0.1730769230769231,
+ "probability": 0.14285714285714288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -62094,12 +62034,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
+ "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -62114,52 +62054,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50 to 52",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53 to 55",
- "probability": 0.07407407407407407,
+ "probability": 0.09433962264150944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56 to 58",
- "probability": 0.21296296296296297,
+ "probability": 0.22641509433962262,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "59 to 61",
- "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
+ "probability": 0.2641509433962264,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62 to 64",
- "probability": 0.2037037037037037,
+ "probability": 0.18867924528301888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 to 67",
- "probability": 0.12962962962962962,
+ "probability": 0.10377358490566037,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
+ "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+ "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 or more",
- "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
+ "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -62174,52 +62114,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.23809523809523808,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.37142857142857144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.20952380952380953,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.07619047619047618,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "57",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "58 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -62239,22 +62179,22 @@
},
{
"name": "50",
- "probability": 0.5742574257425742,
+ "probability": 0.6534653465346535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51",
- "probability": 0.18811881188118812,
+ "probability": 0.12871287128712872,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
+ "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -62287,6 +62227,26 @@
"stars": 3,
"optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58 or more"
},
+ {
+ "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Republican",
+ "probability": 0.86,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Democratic",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
+ "stars": 3,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Republican, Democratic"
+ },
{
"title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ",
"url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c",
@@ -62479,27 +62439,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
- "probability": 0.0054093331180364934,
+ "probability": 0.0052495494789626266,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer",
- "probability": 0.01751978039722267,
+ "probability": 0.017002272193058058,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.052074923300500564,
+ "probability": 0.05053670767061036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.3703374777975133,
+ "probability": 0.3593982605970383,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.07024059421927982,
+ "probability": 0.0681657917417535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -62519,7 +62479,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "probability": 0.03229452607782981,
+ "probability": 0.031340593904254484,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -62554,7 +62514,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ursula Von der Leyen",
- "probability": 0.02518973034070725,
+ "probability": 0.024445663245318498,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -62569,22 +62529,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.3229452607782981,
+ "probability": 0.3237483350309488,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.0538511222347812,
+ "probability": 0.05226044033534435,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
- "probability": 0.0026642984014209592,
+ "probability": 0.002585598997100995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.04747295333440982,
+ "probability": 0.06526678680560996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -62990,12 +62950,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.04372298723489799,
+ "probability": 0.04157904798317722,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
- "probability": 0.05025630716654941,
+ "probability": 0.04779200917606577,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -63005,37 +62965,37 @@
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
- "probability": 0.10051261433309883,
+ "probability": 0.09558401835213154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
- "probability": 0.09568800884511007,
+ "probability": 0.09099598547122922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Buckland",
- "probability": 0.08041009146647905,
+ "probability": 0.07646721468170524,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Wallace",
- "probability": 0.1196100110563876,
+ "probability": 0.11374498183903654,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
- "probability": 0.10925721178007841,
+ "probability": 0.10389982794876698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alok Sharma",
- "probability": 0.077294200422153,
+ "probability": 0.07350411011278916,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Truss",
- "probability": 0.05437732435420647,
+ "probability": 0.05171095392850317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -63045,7 +63005,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
- "probability": 0.14785405568398838,
+ "probability": 0.1406040909959855,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -63055,7 +63015,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Robert Jenrick",
- "probability": 0.077294200422153,
+ "probability": 0.07350411011278916,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -63065,7 +63025,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Brandon Lewis",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.04903460141464348,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -63090,7 +63050,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Amanda Milling",
- "probability": 0.04372298723489799,
+ "probability": 0.04157904798317722,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -63597,61 +63557,61 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0.9542787780699976,
+ "probability": 0.9522559806197634,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.021950232652235474,
+ "probability": 0.014434238417280703,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.021950232652235474,
+ "probability": 0.03149288381952153,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.0010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Farah London",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -63666,12 +63626,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44574557708508844,
+ "probability": 0.4108006448146158,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5542544229149116,
+ "probability": 0.5891993551853842,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -63766,22 +63726,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.5074626865671642,
+ "probability": 0.5163281049112882,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.36370777690494893,
+ "probability": 0.3571612239650296,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.08728288382648162,
+ "probability": 0.08571183680466272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.04154665270140525,
+ "probability": 0.040798834319019456,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -64226,12 +64186,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5094983400959056,
+ "probability": 0.4813294624086495,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49050165990409444,
+ "probability": 0.5186705375913505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -64336,32 +64296,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.36488833746898264,
+ "probability": 0.36833662388943733,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.36488833746898264,
+ "probability": 0.3629072063178677,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
- "probability": 0.05173697270471464,
+ "probability": 0.05145607107601184,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.08858560794044665,
+ "probability": 0.0881046396841066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michelle Obama",
- "probability": 0.04590570719602978,
+ "probability": 0.04565646594274432,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.062034739454094295,
+ "probability": 0.06169792694965449,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -64381,7 +64341,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.020719602977667496,
+ "probability": 0.020607107601184598,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -64421,7 +64381,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Michael Bloomberg",
- "probability": 0.001240694789081886,
+ "probability": 0.0012339585389930898,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -64536,47 +64496,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.1802162162162162,
+ "probability": 0.1821658835099989,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.21199999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.2142935198338979,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.1257297297297297,
+ "probability": 0.11627144574363457,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.024540540540540536,
+ "probability": 0.024806032127636324,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.01081081081081081,
+ "probability": 0.010927767457108512,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.03729729729729729,
+ "probability": 0.037700797727024365,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.06356756756756755,
+ "probability": 0.06425527264779805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.019675675675675672,
+ "probability": 0.01988853677193749,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.0721081081081081,
+ "probability": 0.07288820893891378,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -64586,7 +64546,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.06972972972972973,
+ "probability": 0.0704841000983499,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -64616,7 +64576,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.05405405405405404,
+ "probability": 0.05463883728554256,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -64636,7 +64596,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.02702702702702702,
+ "probability": 0.02731941864277128,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -64656,7 +64616,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
- "probability": 0.05405405405405404,
+ "probability": 0.05463883728554256,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -64671,7 +64631,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.04918918918918918,
+ "probability": 0.049721341929843725,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -64686,17 +64646,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.8999332252217878,
+ "probability": 0.9088631984585742,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0.028045406849184395,
+ "probability": 0.028323699421965318,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.006391300200324335,
+ "probability": 0.012813102119460502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -64706,17 +64666,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.06152818849565964,
+ "probability": 0.045857418111753374,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0.0009539254030334829,
+ "probability": 0.0009633911368015415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.0031479538300104933,
+ "probability": 0.003179190751445087,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -64791,17 +64751,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 3",
- "probability": 0.1290172766115549,
+ "probability": 0.123071168053867,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Exactly 3",
- "probability": 0.31813115363180383,
+ "probability": 0.3203030019639016,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Exactly 4",
- "probability": 0.5528515697566413,
+ "probability": 0.5566258299822313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -65016,12 +64976,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7920825016633399,
+ "probability": 0.763369616658779,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20791749833666,
+ "probability": 0.236630383341221,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -65036,12 +64996,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3994252873563218,
+ "probability": 0.40614775271224385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6005747126436781,
+ "probability": 0.5938522472877561,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -65176,12 +65136,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7037808871688002,
+ "probability": 0.7189000847537433,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2962191128311997,
+ "probability": 0.2810999152462567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -65196,12 +65156,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In-person and postal voting",
- "probability": 0.947219512195122,
+ "probability": 0.948190001915342,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Postal voting only",
- "probability": 0.05278048780487805,
+ "probability": 0.05180999808465811,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -65256,27 +65216,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.5962437395659432,
+ "probability": 0.5754450978812535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.14148580968280466,
+ "probability": 0.1714331748972851,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.07587646076794657,
+ "probability": 0.07322967856279707,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.03797996661101836,
+ "probability": 0.036655119632643195,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.09933222036727879,
+ "probability": 0.09586723596229758,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -65286,7 +65246,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.04908180300500834,
+ "probability": 0.04736969306372351,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -65696,12 +65656,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11546469808820746,
+ "probability": 0.13262180974477958,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8845353019117925,
+ "probability": 0.8673781902552203,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -65716,12 +65676,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.0%",
- "probability": 0.5194617972128784,
+ "probability": 0.47011367803447013,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2.0% or more",
- "probability": 0.4805382027871216,
+ "probability": 0.5298863219655299,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -66671,33 +66631,33 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.5319148936170212,
+ "probability": 0.514421177400237,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.4375661885048618,
+ "probability": 0.4489332279731331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
- "probability": 0.013767209011264077,
+ "probability": 0.014124851837218488,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.0019254837777991718,
+ "probability": 0.0019755037534571313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Northern Independence Party",
- "probability": 0.014826225089053622,
+ "name": "Northern Independence Party (Thelma Walker)",
+ "probability": 0.020545239035954167,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "Which party will win the 2021 Hartlepool by-election? Other parties/candidates added on request.",
"stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Labour, Conservative, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, Northern Independence Party"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Labour, Conservative, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, Northern Independence Party (Thelma Walker)"
},
{
"title": "Joe Biden exit date",
@@ -66741,27 +66701,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "60 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.27236315086782376,
+ "probability": 0.28265149857799166,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61–64",
- "probability": 0.19253741831213547,
+ "probability": 0.16203602421060306,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65–68",
- "probability": 0.24228796289789892,
+ "probability": 0.25144023918909064,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69–72",
- "probability": 0.19520764528142787,
+ "probability": 0.2025814920148764,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "73 or more",
- "probability": 0.09760382264071393,
+ "probability": 0.1012907460074382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -66881,17 +66841,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.5638074435016383,
+ "probability": 0.5179040119985002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
- "probability": 0.30437704780307484,
+ "probability": 0.32320959880015,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.02335545660757792,
+ "probability": 0.026059242594675666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -66911,12 +66871,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.0893892296059817,
+ "probability": 0.1115485564304462,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.019070822481727295,
+ "probability": 0.021278590176227973,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -67091,12 +67051,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6044042127252154,
+ "probability": 0.6267722694827418,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3955957872747846,
+ "probability": 0.37322773051725827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -67111,12 +67071,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5238095238095238,
+ "probability": 0.5454545454545454,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47619047619047616,
+ "probability": 0.4545454545454546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -67130,12 +67090,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5238095238095238,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47619047619047616,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -67143,18 +67103,18 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "Northern Independence Party",
+ "title": "Northern Independence Party / Thelma Walker",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.029411764705882353,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.9705882352941176,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -67180,6 +67140,25 @@
"stars": 2,
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
+ {
+ "title": "SDP",
+ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
+ "platform": "WilliamHill",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.00398406374501992,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9960159362549801,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
{
"title": "Liberal Democrats",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
@@ -67219,7 +67198,64 @@
"optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
},
{
- "title": "SDP",
+ "title": "Women's Equality Party",
+ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
+ "platform": "WilliamHill",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.001996007984031936,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.998003992015968,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "UKIP",
+ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
+ "platform": "WilliamHill",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.001996007984031936,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.998003992015968,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "North East Party",
+ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
+ "platform": "WilliamHill",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.001996007984031936,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.998003992015968,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2,
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No"
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Samantha Lee (Ind)",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
@@ -68053,32 +68089,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0.936717595487423,
+ "probability": 0.9396320653181106,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.02782602268947933,
+ "probability": 0.02791259958739093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.018550681792986218,
+ "probability": 0.018608399724927286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
- "probability": 0.00936717595487423,
+ "probability": 0.006284956198485375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
- "probability": 0.003769262037618714,
+ "probability": 0.0037809895855429945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
- "probability": 0.003769262037618714,
+ "probability": 0.0037809895855429945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -68314,22 +68350,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andy Street (Conservative)",
- "probability": 0.6801053583651119,
+ "probability": 0.6807310358790816,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liam Byrne (Labour)",
- "probability": 0.30913879925686905,
+ "probability": 0.30942319812685526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenny Wilkinson (Lib Dem)",
- "probability": 0.006141830448811968,
+ "probability": 0.0061474807574871905,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ashvir Sangha (Independent)",
- "probability": 0.004614011929207001,
+ "probability": 0.0036982852365759593,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -68377,27 +68413,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tracy Brabin (Labour)",
- "probability": 0.8450310681917125,
+ "probability": 0.8488589000966289,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Robinson (Conservatives)",
- "probability": 0.13077861769633645,
+ "probability": 0.1313710202530497,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cooper (Green)",
- "probability": 0.009063864592815399,
+ "probability": 0.00910492219575592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stewart Golton (Lib Dem)",
- "probability": 0.009063864592815399,
+ "probability": 0.006090047296498993,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)",
- "probability": 0.006062584926320233,
+ "probability": 0.0045751101580664075,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -68490,22 +68526,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.8444759244837123,
+ "probability": 0.7894110347590826,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.10644654510298895,
+ "probability": 0.16403346176812106,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
- "probability": 0.043085506351209814,
+ "probability": 0.04296114474879361,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
- "probability": 0.005992024062088782,
+ "probability": 0.0035943587240026527,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -68518,43 +68554,43 @@
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Markus Soder",
- "probability": 0.38324741732256423,
+ "name": "Armin Laschet",
+ "probability": 0.35288419571610885,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.3406643709533904,
+ "name": "Markus Soder",
+ "probability": 0.35288419571610885,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.10949926209216121,
+ "probability": 0.1235094685006381,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.05896114112654835,
+ "probability": 0.06736880100034806,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.051099655643008564,
+ "probability": 0.05700437007721759,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.04508793144971344,
+ "probability": 0.035288419571610885,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.011440221412613857,
+ "probability": 0.011060549417967592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2,
- "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Soder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Olaf Scholz, Alice Weidel"
+ "optionsstringforsearch": "Armin Laschet, Markus Soder, Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck, Robert Habeck, Annalena Baerbock, Olaf Scholz, Alice Weidel"
},
{
"title": "Next Norwegian General Election - Party With The Most Votes",
@@ -68617,12 +68653,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
- "probability": 0.3373493975903614,
+ "probability": 0.2765957446808511,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
- "probability": 0.6626506024096386,
+ "probability": 0.723404255319149,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.json b/data/polymarket-questions.json
index a5ceca9..dde0d35 100644
--- a/data/polymarket-questions.json
+++ b/data/polymarket-questions.json
@@ -1,49 +1,4 @@
[
- {
- "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Texas",
- "probability": "0.09471882941566854900783987701471025",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Florida",
- "probability": "0.8862514475368737605999119046633115",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "California",
- "probability": "0.01902972304745769039224821832197825",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "276",
- "stars": 3
- },
- {
- "title": "Will AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine receive FDA approval or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) by May 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-receive-fda-approval-or-emergency-use-authorization-eua-by-may-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine will receive regulatory approval in the USA in the form of either FDA approval OR Emergency Use Authorization, whichever comes first. This market will resolve to “Yes” if AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine receives FDA approval or EUA prior to the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and \"No\" otherwise.\n\nThis market will be resolved in good faith, according to the FDA list of licensed vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), the FDA EUA list (https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization), as well as any other resolution source deemed appropriate by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.3325426078486210391403659153611369",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.6674573921513789608596340846388631",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "98",
- "stars": 4
- },
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
@@ -52,16 +7,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1718025008310863946779364090448349",
+ "probability": "0.07753824631498304305713109847982703",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8281974991689136053220635909551651",
+ "probability": "0.922461753685016956942868901520173",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "451",
+ "numforecasts": "504",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.4599317644432323598775687301012367",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.5400682355567676401224312698987633",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "70",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -72,57 +47,72 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.8978542963687510509806282313940195",
+ "probability": "0.8974107967751541143208149317438613",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.1021457036312489490193717686059805",
+ "probability": "0.1025892032248458856791850682561387",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "797",
+ "numforecasts": "798",
"stars": 4
},
{
- "title": "Will the Ever Given be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-ever-given-be-dislodged-from-the-suez-canal-by-march-30",
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether the Ever Given container ship (IMO: 9811000, MMSI 353136000) will be dislodged from the Suez Canal by March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. For the purpose of this market, dislodged from the Suez Canal will mean that the Ever Given has a latitude higher than 30.03000 N (i.e. be at least half a mile above where it got stuck) or lower than 30.01000 N degrees (i.e. be at least half a mile below where it got stuck), by the resolution date, March 30, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this for this market will be the Ever Green’s latitude and longitude coordinates, as tracked by Vessel Finder and displayed in their “Position & Voyage Data” table (https://www.vesselfinder.com/vessels/EVER-GIVEN-IMO-9811000-MMSI-353136000).",
+ "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4698896746217403382421058389612625",
+ "probability": "0.01394232389372196757070549823602875",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5301103253782596617578941610387375",
+ "probability": "0.9860576761062780324292945017639713",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "383",
- "stars": 4
+ "numforecasts": "15",
+ "stars": 3
},
{
- "title": "Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on April 7?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-disapproval-rating-be-40-or-higher-on-april-7",
+ "title": "What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-monthly-nft-trading-volume-be-on-april-13-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's disapproval rating will be 40% or higher on April 7, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, indicated by the orange trend line here, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the disapproval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available disapproval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 8, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 7, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
+ "description": "This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4526971438909513404307955024326983",
+ "name": "$80M or Less",
+ "probability": "0.05744360602032953362501417765827628",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5473028561090486595692044975673017",
+ "name": "$81-105M",
+ "probability": "0.6714313199989959113997850001650252",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "$106-120M",
+ "probability": "0.1558340346479539708610918819061469",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "$121-135M",
+ "probability": "0.06367479538279264655713628485976061",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "$136M or More",
+ "probability": "0.05161624394992793755697265541079074",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "57",
- "stars": 4
+ "numforecasts": "203",
+ "stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?",
@@ -132,37 +122,48 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.4426875615958327161228189497385512",
+ "probability": "0.4061604608970735746980251586486453",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.5573124384041672838771810502614488",
+ "probability": "0.5938395391029264253019748413513547",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "91",
+ "numforecasts": "94",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
+ "outcomes": [
+ "Yes",
+ "No"
+ ],
+ "options": []
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0007833069340194859579063580919656911",
+ "probability": "0.811137805040424106412252281387405",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9992166930659805140420936419080343",
+ "probability": "0.188862194959575893587747718612595",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "187",
- "stars": 3
+ "numforecasts": "3177",
+ "stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
@@ -172,17 +173,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.11325563039183722103275617002183",
+ "probability": "0.07304455174120395584463620390808104",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.88674436960816277896724382997817",
+ "probability": "0.926955448258796044155363796091919",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "7773",
- "stars": 4
+ "numforecasts": "8243",
+ "stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?",
@@ -192,16 +193,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0005773167438572659616369798800062558",
+ "probability": "0.0002594014467534253739238797362305842",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9994226832561427340383630201199937",
+ "probability": "0.9997405985532465746260761202637694",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "4284",
+ "numforecasts": "4314",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on June 30, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-june-30-2021",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on June 30, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/\n\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.9514096993620200431360981712878928",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.04859030063797995686390182871210717",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "4",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -212,16 +233,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0785186989419276422486486868372132",
+ "probability": "0.07590406992189588515175078805599503",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9214813010580723577513513131627868",
+ "probability": "0.924095930078104114848249211944005",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "399",
+ "numforecasts": "411",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -232,16 +253,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.0463958172809963982245937485905163",
+ "probability": "0.04200290899238056378530487686460393",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9536041827190036017754062514094837",
+ "probability": "0.9579970910076194362146951231353961",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "85",
+ "numforecasts": "89",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -252,16 +273,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.01556978274231434901849274397707455",
+ "probability": "0.02304787940068400388231862024485495",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9844302172576856509815072560229254",
+ "probability": "0.9769521205993159961176813797551451",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "720",
+ "numforecasts": "726",
"stars": 3
},
{
@@ -272,36 +293,16 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1199447741739855272384936981505642",
+ "probability": "0.1283821729293469028524210423415517",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8800552258260144727615063018494358",
+ "probability": "0.8716178270706530971475789576584483",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "73",
- "stars": 4
- },
- {
- "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.6720667278394123702971286257476096",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.3279332721605876297028713742523904",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "2618",
+ "numforecasts": "75",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -312,53 +313,18 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.01019374154946546974525356766539572",
+ "probability": "0.001584751006425928853977388179070808",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9898062584505345302547464323346043",
+ "probability": "0.9984152489935740711460226118209292",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "87",
+ "numforecasts": "102",
"stars": 2
},
- {
- "title": "What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-monthly-nft-trading-volume-be-on-april-13-2021-1",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "$80M or Less",
- "probability": "0.09311545717991747005375998978049056",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$81-105M",
- "probability": "0.4546994257057043229946384853760889",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$106-120M",
- "probability": "0.2157457711612491388147202046582125",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$121-135M",
- "probability": "0.1199694628723149212877599749935941",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "$136M or More",
- "probability": "0.1164698830808141468491213451916138",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "144",
- "stars": 3
- },
{
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
@@ -367,76 +333,36 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.1645269193840114258022893873779148",
+ "probability": "0.1661397634672417208420309135621839",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.8354730806159885741977106126220852",
+ "probability": "0.8338602365327582791579690864378161",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "78",
+ "numforecasts": "87",
"stars": 4
},
{
- "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
+ "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.05850935819533382463369476425064051",
+ "probability": "0.8625280409263922776450772413925053",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.9414906418046661753663052357493595",
+ "probability": "0.1374719590736077223549227586074947",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "96",
- "stars": 3
- },
- {
- "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7288981168376345387653725396207922",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2711018831623654612346274603792078",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "54",
- "stars": 4
- },
- {
- "title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before April 10?",
- "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-175-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-april-10",
- "platform": "PolyMarket",
- "description": "This is a market on whether more than 1,750,000 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after March 22, 2021 and on or before April 10, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of April 10, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for April 10, 2021 will be considered. Market resolution will occur immediately upon satisfaction of market conditions, regardless of any later revisions.",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.7158133605584465880501470012740285",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "No",
- "probability": "0.2841866394415534119498529987259715",
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "numforecasts": "56",
+ "numforecasts": "273",
"stars": 4
},
{
@@ -447,16 +373,76 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": "0.2791105028801385312747041678913065",
+ "probability": "0.3074187289292383718296906672878704",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": "0.7208894971198614687252958321086935",
+ "probability": "0.6925812710707616281703093327121296",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
- "numforecasts": "30",
+ "numforecasts": "39",
"stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.05473473251674721078257169228566964",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.9452652674832527892174283077143304",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "98",
+ "stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.722552112790316904876933165751827",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.277447887209683095123066834248173",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "55",
+ "stars": 4
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?",
+ "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-enough-signatures-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-gov-newsom-by-march-17",
+ "platform": "PolyMarket",
+ "description": "This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a recall election is triggered and \"No\" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": "0.9887645696991241916193178356973243",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": "0.01123543030087580838068216430267569",
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "numforecasts": "1368",
+ "stars": 3
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.json b/data/predictit-questions.json
index 0beb26e..d47fe1c 100644
--- a/data/predictit-questions.json
+++ b/data/predictit-questions.json
@@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.92,
+ "probability": 0.9126213592233009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.08737864077669902,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -25,22 +25,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.5238095238095238,
+ "probability": 0.5288461538461539,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.4380952380952381,
+ "probability": 0.4326923076923077,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Libertarian",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.019047619047619046,
+ "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -54,12 +54,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.54,
+ "probability": 0.5346534653465347,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.46,
+ "probability": 0.4653465346534653,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -73,12 +73,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.5825242718446602,
+ "probability": 0.594059405940594,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.4174757281553398,
+ "probability": 0.4059405940594059,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -92,47 +92,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "22 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "23",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "24",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "25",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "26",
- "probability": 0.0660377358490566,
+ "probability": 0.06542056074766356,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "27",
- "probability": 0.8679245283018868,
+ "probability": 0.8691588785046729,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "28",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "29",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30 or more",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -184,12 +184,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -241,12 +241,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8910891089108911,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.10891089108910891,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -260,12 +260,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.8811881188118812,
+ "probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.1188118811881188,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -279,82 +279,82 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.4999999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.49572649572649563,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.21929824561403508,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.05263157894736841,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.05263157894736841,
+ "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.05263157894736841,
+ "probability": 0.059829059829059825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Shaun Donovan",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
+ "name": "Raymond McGuire",
+ "probability": 0.05128205128205127,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Scott Stringer",
+ "probability": 0.05128205128205127,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kathryn Garcia",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
+ "probability": 0.025641025641025637,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Curtis Sliwa",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122806,
+ "name": "Shaun Donovan",
+ "probability": 0.017094017094017092,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carlos Menchaca",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Loree Sutton",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Curtis Sliwa",
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Rose",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Zach Iscol",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Catsimatidis",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paperboy Prince",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Fernando Mateo",
- "probability": 0.008771929824561403,
+ "probability": 0.008547008547008546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -406,12 +406,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.16,
+ "probability": 0.17,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -444,12 +444,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.6039603960396039,
+ "probability": 0.6078431372549019,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.39603960396039606,
+ "probability": 0.39215686274509803,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -501,12 +501,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.42,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.61,
+ "probability": 0.5800000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -520,12 +520,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.94,
+ "probability": 0.95,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -539,12 +539,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Republican",
- "probability": 0.79,
+ "probability": 0.7920792079207921,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Democratic",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.2079207920792079,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -558,22 +558,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Terry McAuliffe",
- "probability": 0.8653846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.8910891089108911,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.0891089108910891,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jennifer McClellan",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Justin Fairfax",
- "probability": 0.019230769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -587,12 +587,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
+ "probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.31000000000000005,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -684,82 +684,82 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.3833333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.3565217391304347,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.2833333333333333,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.10833333333333332,
+ "probability": 0.34782608695652173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.08333333333333333,
+ "probability": 0.08695652173913043,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Robert Habeck",
+ "probability": 0.0608695652173913,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angela Merkel",
- "probability": 0.033333333333333326,
+ "probability": 0.03478260869565217,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.024999999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.026086956521739126,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christian Lindner",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katja Kipping",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexander Gauland",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernd Riexinger",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "probability": 0.008333333333333331,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -773,12 +773,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kirk Cox",
- "probability": 0.5046728971962617,
+ "probability": 0.48598130841121495,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Snyder",
- "probability": 0.24299065420560748,
+ "probability": 0.25233644859813087,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -788,7 +788,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Amanda Chase",
- "probability": 0.08411214953271028,
+ "probability": 0.09345794392523364,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -836,82 +836,82 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.22807017543859642,
+ "probability": 0.22321428571428564,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.17543859649122803,
+ "probability": 0.17857142857142852,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.08771929824561402,
+ "probability": 0.08928571428571426,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kristi Noem",
- "probability": 0.08771929824561402,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.052631578947368404,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.052631578947368404,
+ "probability": 0.08928571428571426,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.04385964912280701,
+ "probability": 0.053571428571428555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Marco Rubio",
- "probability": 0.04385964912280701,
+ "name": "Ted Cruz",
+ "probability": 0.053571428571428555,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mike Pence",
+ "probability": 0.053571428571428555,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.035087719298245605,
+ "probability": 0.035714285714285705,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Marco Rubio",
+ "probability": 0.035714285714285705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
- "probability": 0.035087719298245605,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Tim Scott",
- "probability": 0.035087719298245605,
+ "probability": 0.035714285714285705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mitt Romney",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684202,
+ "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684202,
+ "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684202,
+ "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Tim Scott",
+ "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Larry Hogan",
- "probability": 0.026315789473684202,
+ "probability": 0.026785714285714277,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
- "probability": 0.017543859649122803,
+ "probability": 0.017857142857142853,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -925,7 +925,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.3899999999999999,
+ "probability": 0.3999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -934,12 +934,12 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
+ "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.06999999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Pete Buttigieg",
+ "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.059999999999999984,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
@@ -950,7 +950,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.039999999999999994,
+ "probability": 0.029999999999999992,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -962,50 +962,6 @@
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
"stars": 3
},
- {
- "title": "How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?",
- "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election",
- "platform": "PredictIt",
- "options": [
- {
- "name": "33 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "34 or 35",
- "probability": 0.9428571428571428,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "36 or 37",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "38 or 39",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "40 or 41",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "42 or 43",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "44 or more",
- "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- }
- ],
- "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election.\nPredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
- "stars": 3
- },
{
"title": "Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021",
@@ -1013,37 +969,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Michelle Wu",
- "probability": 0.5,
+ "probability": 0.49074074074074076,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kim Janey",
- "probability": 0.25471698113207547,
+ "probability": 0.25925925925925924,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Campbell",
- "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
+ "probability": 0.08333333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Barros",
- "probability": 0.07547169811320754,
+ "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Santiago",
- "probability": 0.056603773584905655,
+ "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "A. Essaibi-George",
- "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
+ "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marty Walsh",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1095,12 +1051,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.95,
+ "probability": 0.97,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1133,12 +1089,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.84,
+ "probability": 0.83,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.16000000000000003,
+ "probability": 0.17000000000000004,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1190,67 +1146,67 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Jane Timken",
- "probability": 0.3364485981308411,
+ "probability": 0.3465346534653465,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "J. D. Vance",
- "probability": 0.29906542056074764,
+ "probability": 0.2871287128712871,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Mandel",
- "probability": 0.205607476635514,
+ "probability": 0.19801980198019803,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Stivers",
- "probability": 0.037383177570093455,
+ "probability": 0.04950495049504951,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
+ "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Turner",
- "probability": 0.02803738317757009,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rob Portman",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jon Husted",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mary Taylor",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Renacci",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Frank LaRose",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brad Wenstrup",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Warren Davidson",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1283,12 +1239,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1321,12 +1277,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.47,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.53,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1340,77 +1296,77 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Troy Carter",
- "probability": 0.584070796460177,
+ "probability": 0.5217391304347825,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Karen Peterson",
- "probability": 0.30088495575221236,
+ "probability": 0.36521739130434777,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Chelsea Ardoin",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Belden Batiste",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Claston Bernard",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gary Chambers",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Harold John",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Christopher Johnson",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brandon Jolicoeur",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lloyd Kelly",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greg Lirette",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mindy McConnell",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Desiree Ontiveros",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenette Porter",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.",
- "probability": 0.008849557522123894,
+ "probability": 0.008695652173913042,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1424,52 +1380,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lenín Moreno",
- "probability": 0.8878504672897195,
+ "probability": 0.8899082568807338,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jair Bolsonaro",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Ortega",
- "probability": 0.018691588785046728,
+ "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"name": "A. M. López Obrador",
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{
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{
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@@ -1502,52 +1458,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Hassan Rouhani",
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{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
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{
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{
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{
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{
"name": "Xi Jinping",
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{
"name": "Moon Jae-in",
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{
"name": "Narendra Modi",
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{
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{
"name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan",
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}
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@@ -1599,47 +1555,47 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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@@ -1653,52 +1609,52 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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@@ -1766,12 +1722,12 @@
},
{
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"options": [
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{
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"options": [
{
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{
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"options": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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@@ -2031,27 +1987,27 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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@@ -2065,32 +2021,32 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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@@ -2104,52 +2060,52 @@
"options": [
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
@@ -2197,12 +2153,12 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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@@ -2254,67 +2210,67 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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@@ -2347,47 +2303,47 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
@@ -2401,12 +2357,12 @@
"options": [
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{
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@@ -2420,12 +2376,12 @@
"options": [
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{
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],
@@ -2439,52 +2395,52 @@
"options": [
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
"name": "Pedro Sánchez",
- "probability": 0.02777777777777777,
+ "probability": 0.029126213592233,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Viktor Orbán",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518514,
+ "probability": 0.019417475728155335,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518514,
+ "probability": 0.009708737864077667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2498,62 +2454,62 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yonhy Lescano",
- "probability": 0.5943396226415094,
+ "probability": 0.5258620689655171,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rafael López Aliaga",
- "probability": 0.16037735849056603,
+ "probability": 0.14655172413793102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "George Forsyth",
- "probability": 0.14150943396226415,
+ "probability": 0.1293103448275862,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keiko Fujimori",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.06896551724137931,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Verónika Mendoza",
- "probability": 0.018867924528301886,
+ "probability": 0.043103448275862065,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hernando de Soto",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.034482758620689655,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Urresti",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "César Acuña",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alberto Beingolea",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Julio Guzmán",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ollanta Humala",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daniel Salaverry",
- "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
+ "probability": 0.008620689655172414,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2621,7 +2577,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Lorena González",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2631,17 +2587,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Bruce Harrell",
- "probability": 0.12,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Andrew Grant Houston",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Andrew Grant Houston",
+ "probability": 0.05,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Lance Randall",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2670,12 +2626,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Claire McCaskill",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Charlene Barshefsky",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2748,22 +2704,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "New Hampshire",
- "probability": 0.7757009345794393,
+ "probability": 0.7692307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Iowa",
- "probability": 0.08411214953271029,
+ "probability": 0.08653846153846154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nevada",
- "probability": 0.07476635514018692,
+ "probability": 0.07692307692307693,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "South Carolina",
- "probability": 0.06542056074766357,
+ "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2777,12 +2733,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.64,
+ "probability": 0.65,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.35,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2814,58 +2770,58 @@
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Eric Schmitt",
- "probability": 0.38461538461538464,
+ "name": "Eric Greitens",
+ "probability": 0.38738738738738737,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Eric Greitens",
- "probability": 0.36538461538461536,
+ "name": "Eric Schmitt",
+ "probability": 0.37837837837837834,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jason Smith",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.09009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ann Wagner",
- "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.05405405405405405,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vicky Hartzler",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Roy Blunt",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Mike Kehoe",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.027027027027027025,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Billy Long",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.018018018018018018,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Roy Blunt",
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Mike Kehoe",
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jay Ashcroft",
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Carl Edwards",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Brunner",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.009009009009009009,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2879,37 +2835,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Mark Walker",
- "probability": 0.3796296296296296,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Lara Trump",
- "probability": 0.28703703703703703,
+ "probability": 0.32,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pat McCrory",
- "probability": 0.21296296296296297,
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Lara Trump",
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Budd",
- "probability": 0.07407407407407407,
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Forest",
- "probability": 0.027777777777777776,
+ "probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Burr",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Meadows",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2942,12 +2898,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.57,
+ "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.43000000000000005,
+ "probability": 0.47,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3005,17 +2961,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "3 votes",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4 or 5 votes",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.08,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or 7 votes",
- "probability": 0.09,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3030,22 +2986,22 @@
},
{
"name": "12 or 13 votes",
- "probability": 0.08,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "14 or 15 votes",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "14 or 15 votes",
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "16 or 17 votes",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18 or 19 votes",
- "probability": 0.06,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3064,12 +3020,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.12,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.88,
+ "probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3083,12 +3039,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.83,
+ "probability": 0.78,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3102,12 +3058,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tishaura Jones",
- "probability": 0.87,
+ "probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Cara Spencer",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3121,22 +3077,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Dem. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.35779816513761475,
+ "probability": 0.3142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rep. House & Senate",
- "probability": 0.2935779816513762,
+ "probability": 0.30476190476190473,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "R House, D Senate",
- "probability": 0.23853211009174316,
+ "probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "D House, R Senate",
- "probability": 0.11009174311926606,
+ "probability": 0.11428571428571428,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3150,22 +3106,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Letitia James",
- "probability": 0.39,
+ "probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
- "probability": 0.17,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kathy Hochul",
"probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "name": "Kathy Hochul",
+ "probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3173,21 +3124,26 @@
"probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
- {
- "name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.03,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
{
"name": "Jumaane Williams",
"probability": 0.03,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Kirsten Gillibrand",
+ "probability": 0.03,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
+ {
+ "name": "Andrew Yang",
+ "probability": 0.02,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Bill de Blasio",
"probability": 0.01,
@@ -3219,12 +3175,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.24,
+ "probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.76,
+ "probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3238,7 +3194,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Jeff Jackson",
- "probability": 0.45,
+ "probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3248,7 +3204,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Erica Smith",
- "probability": 0.07,
+ "probability": 0.04,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3296,12 +3252,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Nina Turner",
- "probability": 0.6944444444444444,
+ "probability": 0.7037037037037037,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shontel Brown",
- "probability": 0.25,
+ "probability": 0.24074074074074073,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3355,12 +3311,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Sarah Godlewski",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Nelson",
- "probability": 0.11,
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3374,12 +3330,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.87,
+ "probability": 0.86,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.13,
+ "probability": 0.14,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3393,37 +3349,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Mo Brooks",
- "probability": 0.6422018348623852,
+ "probability": 0.6388888888888888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Katie Britt",
- "probability": 0.2201834862385321,
+ "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lynda Blanchard",
- "probability": 0.06422018348623854,
+ "probability": 0.06481481481481481,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Merrill",
- "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
+ "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Shelby",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Roy Moore",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeff Sessions",
- "probability": 0.009174311926605503,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3442,7 +3398,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ed Gainey",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3515,52 +3471,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 1.6M",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.09174311926605505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.6M to 1.625M",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.045871559633027525,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.625M to 1.65M",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846154,
+ "probability": 0.07339449541284403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.65M to 1.675M",
- "probability": 0.10576923076923077,
+ "probability": 0.09174311926605505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.675M to 1.7M",
- "probability": 0.18269230769230768,
+ "probability": 0.16513761467889906,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.7M to 1.725M",
- "probability": 0.25961538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.2385321100917431,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.725M to 1.75M",
- "probability": 0.15384615384615385,
+ "probability": 0.14678899082568805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.75M to 1.775M",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.10091743119266054,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.775M to 1.8M",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.027522935779816512,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1.8M or more",
- "probability": 0.028846153846153844,
+ "probability": 0.018348623853211007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3574,12 +3530,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.19,
+ "probability": 0.18,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.81,
+ "probability": 0.8200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3593,28 +3549,28 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Chuck Grassley",
- "probability": 0.37,
+ "probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pat Grassley",
- "probability": 0.26,
+ "probability": 0.27,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Jim Carlin",
+ "probability": 0.11,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Ashley Hinson",
+ "probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Whitaker",
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Jim Carlin",
- "probability": 0.05,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Ashley Hinson",
- "probability": 0.04,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Iowa Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
@@ -3627,37 +3583,37 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "3 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4 or 5",
- "probability": 0.308411214953271,
+ "probability": 0.25925925925925924,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6 or 7",
- "probability": 0.6074766355140186,
+ "probability": 0.6574074074074073,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "8 or 9",
- "probability": 0.04672897196261682,
+ "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10 or 11",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "12 or 13",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14 or more",
- "probability": 0.009345794392523364,
+ "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3671,27 +3627,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Ron Johnson",
- "probability": 0.5,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.51,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Gallagher",
- "probability": 0.1,
+ "probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Scott Walker",
- "probability": 0.03,
+ "name": "Kevin Nicholson",
+ "probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Steil",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.08,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Scott Walker",
+ "probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3705,52 +3661,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "59 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.28828828828828834,
+ "probability": 0.4495412844036696,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "60 to 62",
- "probability": 0.06306306306306307,
+ "probability": 0.05504587155963301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "63 to 65",
- "probability": 0.03603603603603604,
+ "probability": 0.036697247706422007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "66 to 68",
- "probability": 0.05405405405405406,
+ "probability": 0.036697247706422007,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69 to 71",
- "probability": 0.06306306306306307,
+ "probability": 0.05504587155963301,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "72 to 74",
- "probability": 0.07207207207207209,
+ "probability": 0.06422018348623852,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "75 to 77",
- "probability": 0.0900900900900901,
+ "probability": 0.06422018348623852,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "78 to 80",
- "probability": 0.09909909909909911,
+ "probability": 0.07339449541284401,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "81 to 83",
- "probability": 0.09909909909909911,
+ "probability": 0.06422018348623852,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "84 or more",
- "probability": 0.13513513513513514,
+ "probability": 0.10091743119266053,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3762,44 +3718,44 @@
"url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7196/Who-will-be-the-Democratic-nominee-in-the-NM-01-special-election",
"platform": "PredictIt",
"options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Antoinette Lopez",
+ "probability": 0.40909090909090906,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
{
"name": "Georgene Louis",
- "probability": 0.3557692307692307,
+ "probability": 0.35454545454545455,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Melanie Stansbury",
- "probability": 0.2788461538461538,
- "type": "PROBABILITY"
- },
- {
- "name": "Antoinette Lopez",
- "probability": 0.23076923076923075,
+ "probability": 0.09090909090909091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Victor Reyes",
- "probability": 0.06730769230769232,
+ "probability": 0.07272727272727272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Randi McGinn",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.045454545454545456,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Patricia Caballero",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Selinda Guerrero",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Francisco Fernández",
- "probability": 0.009615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.00909090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3813,12 +3769,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.78,
+ "probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.21999999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3832,22 +3788,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Brian Kemp",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Doug Collins",
- "probability": 0.22,
+ "probability": 0.16,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vernon Jones",
- "probability": 0.17,
+ "probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Herschel Walker",
- "probability": 0.04,
+ "probability": 0.05,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3861,52 +3817,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 2%",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384617,
+ "probability": 0.08571428571428573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2% to 4%",
- "probability": 0.10576923076923078,
+ "probability": 0.08571428571428573,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "4% to 6%",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384617,
+ "probability": 0.09523809523809526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "6% to 8%",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846155,
+ "probability": 0.10476190476190478,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "8% to 10%",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384617,
+ "probability": 0.1142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "10% to 12%",
- "probability": 0.09615384615384617,
+ "probability": 0.1142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "12% to 14%",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846155,
+ "probability": 0.09523809523809526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "14% to 16%",
- "probability": 0.08653846153846155,
+ "probability": 0.09523809523809526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "16% to 18%",
- "probability": 0.07692307692307694,
+ "probability": 0.06666666666666668,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "18% or more",
- "probability": 0.1730769230769231,
+ "probability": 0.14285714285714288,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3920,12 +3876,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.49,
+ "probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.51,
+ "probability": 0.43999999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3939,52 +3895,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.009259259259259259,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50 to 52",
- "probability": 0.018518518518518517,
+ "probability": 0.009433962264150943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53 to 55",
- "probability": 0.07407407407407407,
+ "probability": 0.09433962264150944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56 to 58",
- "probability": 0.21296296296296297,
+ "probability": 0.22641509433962262,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "59 to 61",
- "probability": 0.2222222222222222,
+ "probability": 0.2641509433962264,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "62 to 64",
- "probability": 0.2037037037037037,
+ "probability": 0.18867924528301888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65 to 67",
- "probability": 0.12962962962962962,
+ "probability": 0.10377358490566037,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "68 to 70",
- "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
+ "probability": 0.04716981132075472,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71 to 73",
- "probability": 0.037037037037037035,
+ "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "74 or more",
- "probability": 0.046296296296296294,
+ "probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3998,52 +3954,52 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "49 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.02857142857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "50",
- "probability": 0.29,
+ "probability": 0.23809523809523808,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51",
- "probability": 0.36,
+ "probability": 0.37142857142857144,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52",
- "probability": 0.21,
+ "probability": 0.20952380952380953,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53",
- "probability": 0.05,
+ "probability": 0.07619047619047618,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "54",
- "probability": 0.02,
+ "probability": 0.03809523809523809,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "55",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "56",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "57",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "58 or more",
- "probability": 0.01,
+ "probability": 0.009523809523809523,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4062,22 +4018,22 @@
},
{
"name": "50",
- "probability": 0.5742574257425742,
+ "probability": 0.6534653465346535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51",
- "probability": 0.18811881188118812,
+ "probability": 0.12871287128712872,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "52",
- "probability": 0.039603960396039604,
+ "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "53",
- "probability": 0.0297029702970297,
+ "probability": 0.019801980198019802,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -4108,5 +4064,24 @@
],
"description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Colin Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Kahl be confirmed to position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"58 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Kahl to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/15/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n",
"stars": 3
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Missouri?",
+ "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7204/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Missouri",
+ "platform": "PredictIt",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Republican",
+ "probability": 0.86,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "Democratic",
+ "probability": 0.12,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Missouri U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n",
+ "stars": 3
}
]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.json b/data/smarkets-questions.json
index 4fbea60..97486fc 100644
--- a/data/smarkets-questions.json
+++ b/data/smarkets-questions.json
@@ -149,27 +149,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Friedrich Merz",
- "probability": 0.0054093331180364934,
+ "probability": 0.0052495494789626266,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer",
- "probability": 0.01751978039722267,
+ "probability": 0.017002272193058058,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jens Spahn",
- "probability": 0.052074923300500564,
+ "probability": 0.05053670767061036,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.3703374777975133,
+ "probability": 0.3593982605970383,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.07024059421927982,
+ "probability": 0.0681657917417535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -189,7 +189,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ralph Brinkhaus",
- "probability": 0.03229452607782981,
+ "probability": 0.031340593904254484,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -224,7 +224,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ursula Von der Leyen",
- "probability": 0.02518973034070725,
+ "probability": 0.024445663245318498,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -239,22 +239,22 @@
},
{
"name": "Markus Söder",
- "probability": 0.3229452607782981,
+ "probability": 0.3237483350309488,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.0538511222347812,
+ "probability": 0.05226044033534435,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Norbert Röttgen",
- "probability": 0.0026642984014209592,
+ "probability": 0.002585598997100995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.04747295333440982,
+ "probability": 0.06526678680560996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -652,12 +652,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Boris Johnson",
- "probability": 0.04372298723489799,
+ "probability": 0.04157904798317722,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
- "probability": 0.05025630716654941,
+ "probability": 0.04779200917606577,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -667,37 +667,37 @@
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
- "probability": 0.10051261433309883,
+ "probability": 0.09558401835213154,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
- "probability": 0.09568800884511007,
+ "probability": 0.09099598547122922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Buckland",
- "probability": 0.08041009146647905,
+ "probability": 0.07646721468170524,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Wallace",
- "probability": 0.1196100110563876,
+ "probability": 0.11374498183903654,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Hancock",
- "probability": 0.10925721178007841,
+ "probability": 0.10389982794876698,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alok Sharma",
- "probability": 0.077294200422153,
+ "probability": 0.07350411011278916,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Truss",
- "probability": 0.05437732435420647,
+ "probability": 0.05171095392850317,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -707,7 +707,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
- "probability": 0.14785405568398838,
+ "probability": 0.1406040909959855,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -717,7 +717,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Robert Jenrick",
- "probability": 0.077294200422153,
+ "probability": 0.07350411011278916,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -727,7 +727,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Brandon Lewis",
- "probability": 0,
+ "probability": 0.04903460141464348,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -752,7 +752,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Amanda Milling",
- "probability": 0.04372298723489799,
+ "probability": 0.04157904798317722,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1248,61 +1248,61 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0.9542787780699976,
+ "probability": 0.9522559806197634,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.021950232652235474,
+ "probability": 0.014434238417280703,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.021950232652235474,
+ "probability": 0.03149288381952153,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.0010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Farah London",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
- "probability": 0.0001011531458628363,
+ "probability": 0.00010093873019077415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1316,12 +1316,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.44574557708508844,
+ "probability": 0.4108006448146158,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.5542544229149116,
+ "probability": 0.5891993551853842,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1412,22 +1412,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.5074626865671642,
+ "probability": 0.5163281049112882,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.36370777690494893,
+ "probability": 0.3571612239650296,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.08728288382648162,
+ "probability": 0.08571183680466272,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Green",
- "probability": 0.04154665270140525,
+ "probability": 0.040798834319019456,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1860,12 +1860,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5094983400959056,
+ "probability": 0.4813294624086495,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.49050165990409444,
+ "probability": 0.5186705375913505,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1965,32 +1965,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.36488833746898264,
+ "probability": 0.36833662388943733,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.36488833746898264,
+ "probability": 0.3629072063178677,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
- "probability": 0.05173697270471464,
+ "probability": 0.05145607107601184,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.08858560794044665,
+ "probability": 0.0881046396841066,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michelle Obama",
- "probability": 0.04590570719602978,
+ "probability": 0.04565646594274432,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.062034739454094295,
+ "probability": 0.06169792694965449,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2010,7 +2010,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
- "probability": 0.020719602977667496,
+ "probability": 0.020607107601184598,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2050,7 +2050,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Michael Bloomberg",
- "probability": 0.001240694789081886,
+ "probability": 0.0012339585389930898,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2163,47 +2163,47 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
- "probability": 0.1802162162162162,
+ "probability": 0.1821658835099989,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
- "probability": 0.21199999999999997,
+ "probability": 0.2142935198338979,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
- "probability": 0.1257297297297297,
+ "probability": 0.11627144574363457,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
- "probability": 0.024540540540540536,
+ "probability": 0.024806032127636324,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
- "probability": 0.01081081081081081,
+ "probability": 0.010927767457108512,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
- "probability": 0.03729729729729729,
+ "probability": 0.037700797727024365,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jr.",
- "probability": 0.06356756756756755,
+ "probability": 0.06425527264779805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
- "probability": 0.019675675675675672,
+ "probability": 0.01988853677193749,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
- "probability": 0.0721081081081081,
+ "probability": 0.07288820893891378,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2213,7 +2213,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
- "probability": 0.06972972972972973,
+ "probability": 0.0704841000983499,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2243,7 +2243,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
- "probability": 0.05405405405405404,
+ "probability": 0.05463883728554256,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2263,7 +2263,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
- "probability": 0.02702702702702702,
+ "probability": 0.02731941864277128,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2283,7 +2283,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
- "probability": 0.05405405405405404,
+ "probability": 0.05463883728554256,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2298,7 +2298,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
- "probability": 0.04918918918918918,
+ "probability": 0.049721341929843725,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2312,17 +2312,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.8999332252217878,
+ "probability": 0.9088631984585742,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
- "probability": 0.028045406849184395,
+ "probability": 0.028323699421965318,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.006391300200324335,
+ "probability": 0.012813102119460502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2332,17 +2332,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.06152818849565964,
+ "probability": 0.045857418111753374,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
- "probability": 0.0009539254030334829,
+ "probability": 0.0009633911368015415,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.0031479538300104933,
+ "probability": 0.003179190751445087,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2413,17 +2413,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 3",
- "probability": 0.1290172766115549,
+ "probability": 0.123071168053867,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Exactly 3",
- "probability": 0.31813115363180383,
+ "probability": 0.3203030019639016,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Exactly 4",
- "probability": 0.5528515697566413,
+ "probability": 0.5566258299822313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2630,12 +2630,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7920825016633399,
+ "probability": 0.763369616658779,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.20791749833666,
+ "probability": 0.236630383341221,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2649,12 +2649,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.3994252873563218,
+ "probability": 0.40614775271224385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.6005747126436781,
+ "probability": 0.5938522472877561,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2783,12 +2783,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.7037808871688002,
+ "probability": 0.7189000847537433,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.2962191128311997,
+ "probability": 0.2810999152462567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2802,12 +2802,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In-person and postal voting",
- "probability": 0.947219512195122,
+ "probability": 0.948190001915342,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Postal voting only",
- "probability": 0.05278048780487805,
+ "probability": 0.05180999808465811,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -2859,27 +2859,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
- "probability": 0.5962437395659432,
+ "probability": 0.5754450978812535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Adams",
- "probability": 0.14148580968280466,
+ "probability": 0.1714331748972851,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scott Stringer",
- "probability": 0.07587646076794657,
+ "probability": 0.07322967856279707,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Raymond McGuire",
- "probability": 0.03797996661101836,
+ "probability": 0.036655119632643195,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maya Wiley",
- "probability": 0.09933222036727879,
+ "probability": 0.09586723596229758,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -2889,7 +2889,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Dianne Morales",
- "probability": 0.04908180300500834,
+ "probability": 0.04736969306372351,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -3283,12 +3283,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.11546469808820746,
+ "probability": 0.13262180974477958,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.8845353019117925,
+ "probability": 0.8673781902552203,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -3302,12 +3302,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 2.0%",
- "probability": 0.5194617972128784,
+ "probability": 0.47011367803447013,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2.0% or more",
- "probability": 0.4805382027871216,
+ "probability": 0.5298863219655299,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4212,27 +4212,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.5319148936170212,
+ "probability": 0.514421177400237,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.4375661885048618,
+ "probability": 0.4489332279731331,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
- "probability": 0.013767209011264077,
+ "probability": 0.014124851837218488,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
- "probability": 0.0019254837777991718,
+ "probability": 0.0019755037534571313,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Northern Independence Party",
- "probability": 0.014826225089053622,
+ "name": "Northern Independence Party (Thelma Walker)",
+ "probability": 0.020545239035954167,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4280,27 +4280,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "60 or fewer",
- "probability": 0.27236315086782376,
+ "probability": 0.28265149857799166,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61–64",
- "probability": 0.19253741831213547,
+ "probability": 0.16203602421060306,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "65–68",
- "probability": 0.24228796289789892,
+ "probability": 0.25144023918909064,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "69–72",
- "probability": 0.19520764528142787,
+ "probability": 0.2025814920148764,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "73 or more",
- "probability": 0.09760382264071393,
+ "probability": 0.1012907460074382,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4414,17 +4414,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Siân Berry",
- "probability": 0.5638074435016383,
+ "probability": 0.5179040119985002,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
- "probability": 0.30437704780307484,
+ "probability": 0.32320959880015,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
- "probability": 0.02335545660757792,
+ "probability": 0.026059242594675666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@@ -4444,12 +4444,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
- "probability": 0.0893892296059817,
+ "probability": 0.1115485564304462,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
- "probability": 0.019070822481727295,
+ "probability": 0.021278590176227973,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -4618,12 +4618,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.6044042127252154,
+ "probability": 0.6267722694827418,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.3955957872747846,
+ "probability": 0.37322773051725827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
diff --git a/data/williamhill-questions.json b/data/williamhill-questions.json
index 8052f96..2e17fd0 100644
--- a/data/williamhill-questions.json
+++ b/data/williamhill-questions.json
@@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5238095238095238,
+ "probability": 0.5454545454545454,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47619047619047616,
+ "probability": 0.4545454545454546,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -24,30 +24,30 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.5238095238095238,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.47619047619047616,
+ "probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
- "title": "Northern Independence Party",
+ "title": "Northern Independence Party / Thelma Walker",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
- "probability": 0.038461538461538464,
+ "probability": 0.029411764705882353,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
- "probability": 0.9615384615384616,
+ "probability": 0.9705882352941176,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -71,6 +71,24 @@
],
"stars": 2
},
+ {
+ "title": "SDP",
+ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
+ "platform": "WilliamHill",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.00398406374501992,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.9960159362549801,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
{
"title": "Liberal Democrats",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
@@ -108,7 +126,61 @@
"stars": 2
},
{
- "title": "SDP",
+ "title": "Women's Equality Party",
+ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
+ "platform": "WilliamHill",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.001996007984031936,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.998003992015968,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "UKIP",
+ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
+ "platform": "WilliamHill",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.001996007984031936,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.998003992015968,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "North East Party",
+ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
+ "platform": "WilliamHill",
+ "options": [
+ {
+ "name": "Yes",
+ "probability": 0.001996007984031936,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ },
+ {
+ "name": "No",
+ "probability": 0.998003992015968,
+ "type": "PROBABILITY"
+ }
+ ],
+ "stars": 2
+ },
+ {
+ "title": "Samantha Lee (Ind)",
"url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics",
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
@@ -935,32 +1007,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
- "probability": 0.936717595487423,
+ "probability": 0.9396320653181106,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.02782602268947933,
+ "probability": 0.02791259958739093,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.018550681792986218,
+ "probability": 0.018608399724927286,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
- "probability": 0.00936717595487423,
+ "probability": 0.006284956198485375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
- "probability": 0.003769262037618714,
+ "probability": 0.0037809895855429945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
- "probability": 0.003769262037618714,
+ "probability": 0.0037809895855429945,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1192,22 +1264,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Andy Street (Conservative)",
- "probability": 0.6801053583651119,
+ "probability": 0.6807310358790816,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liam Byrne (Labour)",
- "probability": 0.30913879925686905,
+ "probability": 0.30942319812685526,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jenny Wilkinson (Lib Dem)",
- "probability": 0.006141830448811968,
+ "probability": 0.0061474807574871905,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ashvir Sangha (Independent)",
- "probability": 0.004614011929207001,
+ "probability": 0.0036982852365759593,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1253,27 +1325,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Tracy Brabin (Labour)",
- "probability": 0.8450310681917125,
+ "probability": 0.8488589000966289,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Robinson (Conservatives)",
- "probability": 0.13077861769633645,
+ "probability": 0.1313710202530497,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cooper (Green)",
- "probability": 0.009063864592815399,
+ "probability": 0.00910492219575592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Stewart Golton (Lib Dem)",
- "probability": 0.009063864592815399,
+ "probability": 0.006090047296498993,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)",
- "probability": 0.006062584926320233,
+ "probability": 0.0045751101580664075,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1364,22 +1436,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Labour",
- "probability": 0.8444759244837123,
+ "probability": 0.7894110347590826,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservative",
- "probability": 0.10644654510298895,
+ "probability": 0.16403346176812106,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
- "probability": 0.043085506351209814,
+ "probability": 0.04296114474879361,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
- "probability": 0.005992024062088782,
+ "probability": 0.0035943587240026527,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1391,38 +1463,38 @@
"platform": "WilliamHill",
"options": [
{
- "name": "Markus Soder",
- "probability": 0.38324741732256423,
+ "name": "Armin Laschet",
+ "probability": 0.35288419571610885,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
- "name": "Armin Laschet",
- "probability": 0.3406643709533904,
+ "name": "Markus Soder",
+ "probability": 0.35288419571610885,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock or Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.10949926209216121,
+ "probability": 0.1235094685006381,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Habeck",
- "probability": 0.05896114112654835,
+ "probability": 0.06736880100034806,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Annalena Baerbock",
- "probability": 0.051099655643008564,
+ "probability": 0.05700437007721759,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Olaf Scholz",
- "probability": 0.04508793144971344,
+ "probability": 0.035288419571610885,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alice Weidel",
- "probability": 0.011440221412613857,
+ "probability": 0.011060549417967592,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@@ -1488,12 +1560,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "2021",
- "probability": 0.3373493975903614,
+ "probability": 0.2765957446808511,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2022",
- "probability": 0.6626506024096386,
+ "probability": 0.723404255319149,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],