feat: Download questions more conveniently
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src/utils/evals/iterate.sh
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src/utils/evals/iterate.sh
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dir="/home/loki/Documents/core/software/fresh/js/metaforecasts/metaforecasts-mongo/src/utils/evals"
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fileInput="$dir/metaforecasts_metaculus_v2.tsv"
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fileOutput="$dir/results.tsv"
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rm -f "$fileOutput"
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{
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cat "$fileInput" | tail -n +2 | while read line; do
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index=$( echo "$line" | cut -f 1)
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title=$( echo "$line" | cut -f 2)
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url=$( echo "$line" | cut -f 3 )
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echo "$title"
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firefox -P privacy "$url" &
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read -u 3 -p "Scope? " scope
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read -u 3 -p "Decision relevance? " decision
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read -u 3 -p "Forecasting fit? " fit
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echo "$index $title $url $scope $decision $fit" >> "$fileOutput"
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echo ""
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echo "***"
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echo ""
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done;
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} 3<&0
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src/utils/evals/metaforecasts_metaculus_v2.tsv
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src/utils/evals/metaforecasts_metaculus_v2.tsv
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src/utils/evals/pullMetaculusForecastsToCSVForRating.js
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src/utils/evals/pullMetaculusForecastsToCSVForRating.js
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/* Imports */
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import fs from "fs"
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import { mongoReadWithReadCredentials } from "../mongo-wrapper.js"
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/* Definitions */
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/* Utilities */
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/* Support functions */
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let getQualityIndicators = forecast => Object.entries(forecast.qualityindicators).map(entry => `${entry[0]}: ${entry[1]}`).join("; ")
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let shuffleArray = (array) => {
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// See: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/2450954/how-to-randomize-shuffle-a-javascript-array
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for (let i = array.length - 1; i > 0; i--) {
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const j = Math.floor(Math.random() * (i + 1));
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[array[i], array[j]] = [array[j], array[i]];
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}
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return array
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}
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/* Body */
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let main = async () => {
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let highQualityPlatforms = [ 'Metaculus' ] // ['CSET-foretell', 'Foretold', 'Good Judgment Open', 'Metaculus', 'PredictIt', 'Rootclaim']
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let json = await mongoReadWithReadCredentials("metaforecasts")
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console.log(json.length)
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//let uniquePlatforms = [...new Set(json.map(forecast => forecast.platform))]
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//console.log(uniquePlatforms)
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let forecastsFromGoodPlatforms = json.filter(forecast => highQualityPlatforms.includes(forecast.platform))
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let forecastsFromGoodPlatformsShuffled = shuffleArray(forecastsFromGoodPlatforms)
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let tsv = "index\ttitle\turl\tqualityindicators\n"+forecastsFromGoodPlatforms
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.map((forecast, index) => {
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let row = `${index}\t${forecast.title}\t${forecast.url}\t${getQualityIndicators(forecast)}`
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console.log(row)
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return row
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})
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.join("\n")
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//console.log(tsv)
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// let string = JSON.stringify(json, null, 2)
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fs.writeFileSync('metaforecasts_metaculus_v2.tsv', tsv);
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}
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main()
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201
src/utils/evals/results.tsv
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src/utils/evals/results.tsv
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0 When will China legalise same-sex marriage? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/ 4 1 4
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1 How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/ 4 2 4
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2 How many of the new LessWrong book sets will be sold on Amazon by March 1st 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7767/total-new-lesswrong-book-sales-by-march-2022/ 0.5 4 3
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3 When will the next Palestinian election be held? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8091/date-of-next-palestinian-election/ 2 1 4
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4 On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/ 5 2 3
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5 Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/ 0.5 0 4
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6 Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/ 2 2 4
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7 By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/ 0.5 4 3
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8 Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8159/clash-between-japan-and-china-by-2024/ 5 2 4
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9 Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/ 4 4 3
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10 How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/ 4 2 4
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11 How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/ 3 1 4
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12 How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ 0.5 0 4
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13 What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/ 4 2 4
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14 When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/ 3 1 4
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15 Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/ 4 4 4
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16 How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/ 3 4 4
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17 If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8052/elizabeth-holmes-sentence-if-convicted/ 0.5 0 4
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18 Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8053/abiys-ethiopia-rule-disrupted-before-2025/ 3 1 4
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19 What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7194/us-military-expenditure-in-2022/ 4 1 4
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20 Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/ 4 2 4
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21 Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/ 4 1 4
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22 What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7604/va-weekly-cli-visits-peak-before-aug-2022/ 2 4 4
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23 Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/ 4 2 4
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24 What will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7007/gdp-of-the-world-for-2025/ 5 2 3
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25 How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/ 4 2 4
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26 Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/ 0.5 0 3
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27 When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/ 3 1 4
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28 Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/ 4 2 4
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29 Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/ 2 1 4
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30 What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/ 2 4 4
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31 What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/ 5 3 4
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32 When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/ 4 2 4
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33 How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/ 4 3 4
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34 Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7504/2021-cease-fire-in-tigray-war-lasts-30-days/ 4 2 4
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35 Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/ 5 4 4
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36 How many communist states will there be in 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/ 5 2 4
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37 Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/ 4 4 3
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38 What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/ 3 2 4
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39 By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7980/will-general-milley-leave-as-cjcos/ 3 1 4
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40 Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/ 5 0 4
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41 By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/ 0.5 4 4
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42 Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/ 1 0 4
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43 Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/ 5 2 3
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44 How much aid will the US give to Israel in FY 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8042/us-aid-to-israel-in-fy-2030/ 4 1 4
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45 Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/ 3 2 4
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46 How much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7067/us-livestock-subsidization-between-2021-22/ 4 2 4
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47 50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7252/gap-between-agi-creation-and-reveal/ 5 4 4
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48 Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/ 2 1 4
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49 How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/ 2 2 4
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50 When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6941/new-zealand-international-travel-reopens/ 3 2 4
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51 By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/ 2 1 3
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52 How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/ 3 2 4
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53 What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/ 0.5 0 4
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54 If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/ 4 1 4
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55 How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/ 3 0 4
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56 When will at least 1% of people in any major city or country have experienced using augmented reality outside? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7543/when-will-ar-tech-be-widely-publicly-worn/ 4 2 4
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57 Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/ 3 1 4
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58 Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/ 2 3 4
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59 How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/ 2 3 4
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60 When will there be a mile-high building? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/ 1 0 4
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61 How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/ 4 2 4
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62 Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8003/trade-signal-metaculus-trades-make-money/ 0.5 4 4
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63 If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/ 4 2 3
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64 Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/ 4 2 4
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65 When will the first human be born on another world? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/ 5 2 4
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66 When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/ 4 3 4
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67 When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/ 5 3 4
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68 What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/ 5 3 2
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69 What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/ 2 1 4
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70 Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/ 3 1 4
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71 Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/ 3 1 4
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72 Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/ 4 2 3
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73 Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/ 4 3 4
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74 What will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8022/best-perplexity-on-penn-treebank-before-2025/ 3 2 4
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75 Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7828/projected-election-winner-isnt-president-2025/ 4 3 4
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76 Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/ 2 4 4
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77 Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/ 4 2 4
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78 In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/ 1 4 4
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79 How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ 1 0 4
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80 When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/ 2 2 4
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81 What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/ 4 2 4
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82 Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/ 3 1 4
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83 When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/ 5 3 4
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84 When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/ 5 2 4
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85 What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/ 4 2 4
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86 How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/ 4 2 4
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87 What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/ 4 2 4
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88 What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/ 4 1 4
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89 If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/ 3 3 4
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90 Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/ 4 3 4
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91 Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/ 3 1 4
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92 What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/ 4 2 4
|
||||
93 Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7872/us-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/ 5 2 4
|
||||
94 What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/ 5 2 4
|
||||
95 What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7930/space-traveler-fatality-rate-in-the-2020s/ 0.5 1 4
|
||||
96 When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/ 4 3 4
|
||||
97 Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/ 3 2 4
|
||||
98 Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/ 4 2 4
|
||||
99 Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/ 5 3 4
|
||||
100 When will the WHO announce that the COVID-19 pandemic has ended? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8033/date-who-announces-end-of-covid-19-pandemic/ 5 3 4
|
||||
101 By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/ 4 3 4
|
||||
102 What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/ 4 4 4
|
||||
103 When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/ 3 1 4
|
||||
104 Reliable automatic coding of described rules by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/495/reliable-automatic-coding-of-described-rules-by-2030/ 4 2 3
|
||||
105 Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7598/rootclaim-challenge-before-2025/ 1 3 4
|
||||
106 Does the extrasolar planet K2-18b host life? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3111/does-the-extrasolar-planet-k2-18b-host-life/ 3 2 3
|
||||
107 Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7669/france-home-game-advantage/ 1 0 4
|
||||
108 How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/ 3 2 4
|
||||
109 What will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6055/us-median-age-of-employed-person-by-2040/ 4 2 3
|
||||
110 Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/ 0.5 0 4
|
||||
111 Will more than two nuclear weapons in total have been detonated as an act of war by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/will-more-than-two-nuclear-weapons-in-total-have-been-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-2050/ 5 4 4
|
||||
112 When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/ 5 4 4
|
||||
113 Will the United Kingdom rejoin the European Union before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5048/will-the-uk-rejoin-the-eu-before-2030/ 4 3 4
|
||||
114 When will a fusion reactor reach ignition? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/ 4 2 4
|
||||
115 How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based milk companies in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7047/2022-non-exit-investment-in-plant-based-milk/ 2 4 4
|
||||
116 Will the US supreme court change size by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/ 4 2 4
|
||||
117 Will armed conflict between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7512/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2050/ 5 4 4
|
||||
118 What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4053/what-will-be-the-alexa-traffic-rank-for-metaculuscom-on-january-1st-2022/ 0.5 3 4
|
||||
119 When will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5823/date-first-class-royal-mail-stamps-costs-1/ 3 0 4
|
||||
120 When will North Korea become a democracy? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4439/when-will-north-korea-become-a-democracy/ 4 2 4
|
||||
121 How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5827/dc-charging-stations-in-boulder-co-by-2021/ 1 2 4
|
||||
122 Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/ 4 5 4
|
||||
123 Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/ 4 3 3
|
||||
124 Pandemic series: a significant flu pandemic by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/240/pandemic-series-a-significant-flu-pandemic-by-2025/ 4 4 4
|
||||
125 When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/ 4 3 4
|
||||
126 Will Bill and Melinda Gates' philanthropic priorities diverge by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7300/gates-donation-priorities-to-diverge-by-2030/ 2 2 4
|
||||
127 When will the first driverless cargo truck make a cross-USA trip? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/413/when-will-the-first-driverless-cargo-truck-make-a-cross-usa-trip/ 3 2 4
|
||||
128 Will the USA's Labor Force Participation Rate be lower in 2023 than in 2018? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1663/will-the-usas-labor-force-participation-rate-be-lower-in-2023-than-in-2018/ 4 2 3
|
||||
129 Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8129/iran-possesses-fissile-material-for-warhead/ 4 4 4
|
||||
130 How much will an UberX tour of Europe cost in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2792/how-much-will-an-uberx-tour-of-europe-cost-in-2024/ 3 1 4
|
||||
131 Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/ 4 2 4
|
||||
132 When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/ 2 1 4
|
||||
133 Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/ 5 4 3
|
||||
134 When will The Economist rank Russia as a hybrid regime or better in its Democracy Index? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7741/russia-a-hybrid-regime-in-economists-index/ 3 2 4
|
||||
135 If Puerto Rico becomes a US state by 2035, will their first 2 elected Senators both be Democrats? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7243/1st-senators-from-puerto-rico-both-democrats/ 4 2 4
|
||||
136 When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/ 3 2 4
|
||||
137 How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/ 3 2 4
|
||||
138 How many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/ 4 4 4
|
||||
139 Will there be armed conflict between the national military forces, militia and/or law enforcement personnel of Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before Jan 1, 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7227/armed-conflict-between-prc--roc-taiwan/ 5 4 4
|
||||
140 What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6305/us-2024-popular-vote-combined-dem--rep/ 4 2 4
|
||||
141 When will Vladimir Putin leave power in Russia? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/954/when-will-vladimir-putin-leave-power-in-russia/ 4 2 4
|
||||
142 What will be the minimum Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7942/minimum-antarctic-sea-ice-extent-in-2030/ 4 2 4
|
||||
143 How much forest coverage loss will occur in Brazil over the three-year period starting from 2020? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3452/how-much-forest-coverage-loss-will-occur-in-brazil-over-the-three-year-period-starting-from-2020/ 4 2 4
|
||||
144 When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/ 1 0 4
|
||||
145 Who will win the 'worm wars'? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/ 4 4 4
|
||||
146 Will NAD+ boosters be shown in a systematic review to increase human lifespan by >=5% by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4290/will-nad-boosters-be-shown-in-a-systematic-review-to-increase-human-lifespan-by-5-by-2030/ 3 4 4
|
||||
147 What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/ 3 2 4
|
||||
148 Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/ 4 2 3
|
||||
149 Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before Jan 1, 2026? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7792/100-deaths-from-taiwan-conflict-before-2026/ 5 4 4
|
||||
150 When will the number of people in cryopreservation preserved before 2019 fall to less than 50% of the current value? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3333/when-will-the-number-of-people-in-cryopreservation-preserved-before-2019-fall-to-less-than-50-of-the-current-value/ 1 3 4
|
||||
151 Assassination by autonomous weapon by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/351/assassination-by-autonomous-weapon-by-2025/ 3 2 4
|
||||
152 Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/ 5 4 4
|
||||
153 How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5809/federal-loan-forgiveness/ 4 2 4
|
||||
154 When will the first successful entirely artificial extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2769/when-will-the-first-successful-entirely-artificial-extracorporeal-human-pregnancy-conclude/ 3 2 4
|
||||
155 Will Turkey recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7859/turkey-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/ 4 2 4
|
||||
156 What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/ 3 1 4
|
||||
157 How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4265/how-much-exercise-can-you-do-before-it-starts-to-take-more-time-than-it-adds-life/ 4 4 4
|
||||
158 When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/ 5 4 4
|
||||
159 Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/ 5 3 4
|
||||
160 What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3520/what-will-the-cost-of-energy-of-utility-scale-solar-photovoltaics-be-in-2020-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/ 4 1 4
|
||||
161 What will be the largest plant-based meat product production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single production facility, by January 1st, 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7038/plant-based-meat-production-capacity-2030/ 4 4 4
|
||||
162 When will an AI achieve competency in the Atari classic Montezuma’s Revenge? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/ 2 2 4
|
||||
163 Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/ 3 2 4
|
||||
164 How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ 2 2 4
|
||||
165 What will unemployment be in the US in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/ 4 2 3
|
||||
166 What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/ 4 3 4
|
||||
167 In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6976/ea-survey-2025-donations-to-meta-charities/ 1 3 4
|
||||
168 Will Planet Nine be discovered before 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5313/planet-nine-discovery-by-before-2030/ 3 1 4
|
||||
169 Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7738/twitter-says-nyt-tweet-misinforms-by-2025/ 2 1 4
|
||||
170 Will commercial farming of cows, pigs and chickens for meat be prohibited in the US by 2041? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7547/livestock-farming-ban-by-2041/ 4 4 4
|
||||
171 How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7463/-countries-increase-nuclear-arsenal-by-10/ 5 3 4
|
||||
172 How many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6063/number-employed-in-us-healthcare-in-2021/ 4 2 3
|
||||
173 Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/ 3 1 4
|
||||
174 What will the earliest preservation date of any resuscitated cryonics patient be? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/ 3 4 4
|
||||
175 What percentage of seats will the PAP win in the next Singaporean general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7596/seats-won-by-the-pap-in-the-next-election/ 3 0 4
|
||||
176 When will the first exaflop performer appear? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/ 2 1 4
|
||||
177 What will Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of US$? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4694/what-will-gross-world-product-be-in-2047-in-trillions-of-us/ 5 2 4
|
||||
178 Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/ 2 4 3
|
||||
179 What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/ 1 0 4
|
||||
180 Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/ 3 1 4
|
||||
181 What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/ 2 1 4
|
||||
182 Will another 9/11 on U.S. soil be prevented at least through 2030? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/916/will-another-911-on-us-soil-be-prevented-at-least-through-2030/ 5 2 4
|
||||
183 Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/ 4 4 4
|
||||
184 When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 6%? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6002/gwp-growth-to-exceed-6/ 5 2 4
|
||||
185 When will the first human mission to Venus take place? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/ 1 0 4
|
||||
186 When will The Simpsons air its final episode? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/807/when-will-the-simpsons-air-its-final-episode/ 1 0 4
|
||||
187 Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3460/will-there-be-at-least-200-companies-developing-technologies-to-defeat-aging-by-2025/ 3 2 4
|
||||
188 Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6424/substack-to-join-cancel-culture/ 1 4 4
|
||||
189 If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/ 2 2 4
|
||||
190 How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6114/will-the-senate-confirm-many-judges-in-2021/ 3 0 4
|
||||
191 When will OpenAI unveil their secret AI project? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4043/when-will-openai-unveil-their-secret-ai-project/ 3 3 4
|
||||
192 What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6589/long-covid-post-hospitalisation/ 5 3 4
|
||||
193 Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/ 4 1 4
|
||||
194 Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/ 3 1 3
|
||||
195 When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/ 1 0 4
|
||||
196 Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2807/will-the-uk-housing-market-crash-before-july-2023/ 3 3 3
|
||||
197 When will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7501/date-twin-prime-conjecture-is-resolved/ 0.5 0 4
|
||||
198 Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3484/will-the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-in-2020-be-lower-than-the-number-in-2015/ 5 2 4
|
||||
199 What will be the U.S. average weekly hours of all employees (total non-farm private) in October 2025? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3245/what-will-be-the-us-average-weekly-hours-of-all-employees-total-non-farm-private-in-october-2025/ 4 1 4
|
||||
200 Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/ 4 2 4
|
||||
|
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user